Author Topic: CAESAR III - Inferring Adversary Intent & Estimating Behavior  (Read 25566 times)

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Offline squarepusher

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CAESAR III - Inferring Adversary Intent & Estimating Behavior
« on: January 10, 2010, 01:36:24 pm »
Apologies if this has already been posted (I did a quick Google search on the subject title - and could not find anything on the Prisonplanet forums).

So with that out of the way, here goes - this was part of a seminar they held in March of 2008. This is from the United States Air University. The name Alexander Levis pops up again.

Some mod might want to move this post to another forum section.

http://www.au.af.mil/bia/events/conf-mar08/agenda08mar.htm

http://www.au.af.mil/bia/events/conf-mar08/wagenhals_caesar_iii_mar08.ppt

CAESAR III:
Organization Design and Analysis


Lee W. Wagenhals
Alexander H. Levis
Ashraf AbuSharekh


Adversary Behavioral Modeling
Maxwell AFB, Montgomery AL
March 18 - 19, 2008


























































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Offline squarepusher

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Re: CAESAR III - Inferring Adversary Intent & Estimating Behavior
« Reply #1 on: January 10, 2010, 02:05:36 pm »
Here is the text version -

CAESAR III:
Organization Design and Analysis


Lee W. Wagenhals
Alexander H. Levis
Ashraf AbuSharekh

Adversary Behavioral Modeling
Maxwell AFB, Montgomery AL
March 18 - 19, 2008


Outline

  • Description of CAESAR III
  • Coalition and Adversary Modeling
  • A Hypothetical Case
  • Approach
  • Comments

CAESAR III

  • CAESAR I was created in 1987 to design and evaluate the organizational structure of command centers conducting tactical tasks
  • CAESAR II addressed in 1994 adaptive organizations at the operational and tactical level and became a suite of tools for supporting command centers.
  • CAESAR III (2006) is now an application for the design of decision making organizations at the operational and tactical levels; it takes into consideration cultural differences in coalitions and of adversaries
  • The design methodology is based on Petri net theory
- There is an algebra of information sharing and command issuing interconnections
- The Lattice algorithm computes all organizational architectures that satisfy the constraints
- Cultural attributes generate additional constraints that reduce further the set of feasible designs[/list]

CAESAR III (cont.)

  • CAESAR III is designed to address three problems:
- Fixed organization design
- Variable structure organization design
- Adaptive structure organization design
  • The suite includes SEAT, the System Effectiveness Analysis Tool, that computes and visualizes performance measures (MOPs) and effectiveness measures (MOEs)



The DM Model

  • A five stage model was postulated as an extension of the stimulus - response model:



IF: Information Fusion
TP:Task Processing
CI: Command Interpretation

The Interacting DM Model

  • The additional stages were necessary for creating different types of interactions among decision makers



Two Interacting DMs



Possible information flows from DM1 to DM2
Corresponding ones (not shown) from DM2 to DM1

The Lattice Algorithm

- A set of structural constraints has been established that all organizations must satisfy
- Domain/Problem specific constraints can be added
- For a given number of DMs, the algorithm determines all possible organizational structures that meet the constraints
- The algorithm does this in a constructive way – not by enumeration
- The algorithm is based on the invariant theory of Petri Nets
- The solution set has the structure of a Lattice with the minimally connected organizations as the lowest solutions and the maximally connected ones as the highest ones.
- Since a Petri net formulation is used, the model is executable; consequently, it can be used to analyze performance

Adversary Modeling: A Hypothetical Case

  • To demonstrate the computational process, a simple example has been formulated
  • Intelligence from the field has informed Blue that the Adversary (Red) has organized a force to conduct operations in a distinct part (a province) of the Area of Responsibility
  • Intelligence has also indicated that the leadership group consists of six persons:
- The Force Commander
- The Director of Operations
- The Commander of the Operations group
- The Intelligence Officer
- Two Field Intelligence Officers with different AORs

Organizational Relationship Chart

Intelligence Analysts suggest the following command structure



Specifying Interactions

  • Based on the organizational relationship chart, we can specify the interactions between the Decision Makers
- The Field Intelligence Officers interact with the environment and send their “Situation Assessment” to the Intelligence Officer.
- The Intelligence Officer fuses this information and sends his “Assessment” to the Force Commander.
- Based on the information received, the Commander “directs” the Director of Operations who develops a Course of Action
- The Director of Operations in turn “directs” the Commander of Operations who develops a plan based on the COA and executes it.
- The variable links are introduced into the problem based on the type of interactions that usually exist in command and control organizations. They may or may not exist in the Red group.
- Cultural attributes are used to determine probable links.

The Problem And The Approach

  • Can we infer the possible organizational structure of the Red Force and their information exchanges so that we can focus our ISR assets to the right targets?
  • Approach: Design all feasible organizational structures that meet the specific constraints of the problem
  • Apply Red’s cultural attributes to determine (plausible) organizational structures that he may be employing
  • Apply Blue’s cultural attributes to obtain a baseline so as to compare with Red’s structures
  • Determine high value ISR targets for Blue



Number of Allowed interactions by type

































Conclusions

  • The different solution spaces for the two cases show that cultural attributes do  affect the structure of the organization.
  • They can provide valuable insight into possible structures that may be used by an adversary.
  • The common interactions in the C-MINOs can be used to identify the high value ISR targets.
  • Metrics from Social Network Analysis can indicate the strength of the relationships; the organizational structure can inform the Social Network of the types of interactions between network nodes.
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Offline squarepusher

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Re: CAESAR III - Inferring Adversary Intent & Estimating Behavior
« Reply #2 on: January 10, 2010, 02:16:39 pm »
Quote
Metrics from Social Network Analysis can indicate the strength of the relationships; the organizational structure can inform the Social Network of the types of interactions between network nodes.

BTW - I want to comment on this - you know what this means, right? Facebook, MySpace, Hyves (NL) and all these other social networking sites - guess what? They're including us all in these systems - building their petri nets, creating influence nets, the system here (CAESAR) creates its Courses of Actions, the likely scenarios that groups of people are likely to embark on, and how to counteract against this, and so on. And it can go back in time, look at the sequence of events, and recalculate its COAs based on prior history.

Link all this up to a neural AI network of some kind and you've really got one big, undefeatable Big Brother/Global Brain-type system.

I guess this might be obvious to people like Anti_Illuminati and lordssyndicate and Sane, but I don't think the rest of the public has any idea how awfully close the terminology here matches that of the so-called 'fun and games' social networking sites for the general public.

They're checking out each person's individual likes and dislikes - they're checking out his 'network' in terms of related people he talks to - they scan all the text individually and other extensive data mining operations to make up probability profiles that someone is likely to become 'extreme', 'subversive', whatever. And they're feeding this all into the C2 bases.
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Offline thnkfstpal

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Re: CAESAR III - Inferring Adversary Intent & Estimating Behavior
« Reply #3 on: January 10, 2010, 02:38:56 pm »
Of course we know this. Who doesn't seriously know this? Anyone will gladly agree the statement "all politicians are corrupt", the majority of Americans will also agree to the statement "You know They (the government) are tracking everything, right?": therefore of course we understand this. The above is proof of pyramid type organizing and the basic "workings" of the aforementioned statements.

Now the sheep may not understand completely the workings, but they figure that , yeah, its all in place. Meaning the big brother tech brain.

Give the sheep a bit more credit.

Offline squarepusher

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Re: CAESAR III - Inferring Adversary Intent & Estimating Behavior
« Reply #4 on: January 10, 2010, 03:08:06 pm »
Of course we know this. Who doesn't seriously know this? Anyone will gladly agree the statement "all politicians are corrupt", the majority of Americans will also agree to the statement "You know They (the government) are tracking everything, right?": therefore of course we understand this. The above is proof of pyramid type organizing and the basic "workings" of the aforementioned statements.

Now the sheep may not understand completely the workings, but they figure that , yeah, its all in place. Meaning the big brother tech brain.

Give the sheep a bit more credit.

No, I really don't.

How many of them would figure they post all this stuff in the open without any encryption layers? How many of them even know their entire society is being run on game theory?

How many of them know that all of genetics is based on game theory?

What this means is, most of genetics might be pure and utter crap if the underlying theories that it's based on (game theory) are invalidated.

Hence why i think people really DON'T know. They understand a part of it, they understand that it's something to do with being tracked, but they have no idea the extent of which it is done - and that the people who are doing this themselves are basically sold on a fake enemy - Al-Qaeda as the great asymmetrical force that validates all of the research going into net-centric warfare, effects-based operations, future combat systems and so on.

And they have no idea that basically all of warfare is now being treated as a game - it's all based on two adversaries (blue vs red) going at it each other, the computer calculates what's likely to happen and it decides the rules, the setpieces, and so on. Gulf War I was a trial balloon for fourth-generation warfare, Operation Iraqi Freedom was a trial balloon for net-centric warfare, and so on. Basically, wars will never come to an end - because each war is in itself a massive laboratory for getting to the next level of military dominance.

Combine that with the entertainment people infatuate themselves with - videogames - which is all based on game theory, combine that with what people assume to be real legitimate science of their biological makeup (selfish gene theory, all based on game theory), combine that with the UML techniques system programmers need to learn to make software programs (all based on operations research - again, war) - and basically, the 'war economy' has been here with us for a long time - it's just that most people didn't know how it all interconnected into each other.
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Mike Philbin

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Re: CAESAR III - Inferring Adversary Intent & Estimating Behavior
« Reply #5 on: January 10, 2010, 03:44:06 pm »
Sick f**ks. The world needs to know EXACTLY THIS PHRASE because it's time we stopped funding it.

:)

Basically, wars will never come to an end - because each war is in itself a massive laboratory for getting to the next level of military dominance.

Offline trailhound

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Re: CAESAR III - Inferring Adversary Intent & Estimating Behavior
« Reply #6 on: January 10, 2010, 04:01:53 pm »
 BUMP

"Do not let your hatred of a people incite you to aggression." Qur'an 5:2
At the heart of that Western freedom and democracy is the belief that the individual man, the child of God, is the touchstone of value..." -RFK

Offline Satyagraha

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Re: CAESAR III - Inferring Adversary Intent & Estimating Behavior
« Reply #7 on: January 10, 2010, 09:26:31 pm »
No, I really don't.

How many of them would figure they post all this stuff in the open without any encryption layers? How many of them even know their entire society is being run on game theory?

How many of them know that all of genetics is based on game theory?

What this means is, most of genetics might be pure and utter crap if the underlying theories that it's based on (game theory) are invalidated.

Hence why i think people really DON'T know. They understand a part of it, they understand that it's something to do with being tracked, but they have no idea the extent of which it is done - and that the people who are doing this themselves are basically sold on a fake enemy - Al-Qaeda as the great asymmetrical force that validates all of the research going into net-centric warfare, effects-based operations, future combat systems and so on.

And they have no idea that basically all of warfare is now being treated as a game - it's all based on two adversaries (blue vs red) going at it each other, the computer calculates what's likely to happen and it decides the rules, the setpieces, and so on. Gulf War I was a trial balloon for fourth-generation warfare, Operation Iraqi Freedom was a trial balloon for net-centric warfare, and so on. Basically, wars will never come to an end - because each war is in itself a massive laboratory for getting to the next level of military dominance.

Combine that with the entertainment people infatuate themselves with - videogames - which is all based on game theory, combine that with what people assume to be real legitimate science of their biological makeup (selfish gene theory, all based on game theory), combine that with the UML techniques system programmers need to learn to make software programs (all based on operations research - again, war) - and basically, the 'war economy' has been here with us for a long time - it's just that most people didn't know how it all interconnected into each other.

QFT. I agree - MOST people think of the social networking sites as 'fun' ... a place to post pictures and link to friends and family. They have the mindset that 'I have nothing to hide' - so nobody would care about my info... blah blah.. and don't realize they are part of the bigger database of information being tracked to fill up the 'observation' fields in the Ptech-driven control mechanism (OODA loop). This is about controlling us. This (social networking sites) is a giant LAB for gathering data. They want 100% error-free predictive ability on our reactions, movements and anticipated behaviors.

And  the King shall answer and say unto them, Verily I say unto you, 
Inasmuch as ye have done it unto one of the least of these my brethren,  ye have done it unto me.

Matthew 25:40

Offline trailhound

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Re: CAESAR III - Inferring Adversary Intent & Estimating Behavior
« Reply #8 on: January 12, 2010, 06:49:48 pm »
bumptitty bump bump bumptitty bump bump look at caesar go

"Do not let your hatred of a people incite you to aggression." Qur'an 5:2
At the heart of that Western freedom and democracy is the belief that the individual man, the child of God, is the touchstone of value..." -RFK

Offline Satyagraha

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Re: CAESAR III - Inferring Adversary Intent & Estimating Behavior
« Reply #9 on: January 17, 2010, 02:04:28 pm »
Facebook and Twitter: Who Owns What
Stephen Arnold, January 31, 2009
http://arnoldit.com/wordpress/2009/01/30/facebook-and-twitter-who-owns-what/

If a Facebook or Twitter fails, what happens? What a silly question. According to Jeremy Liew, Facebook is “pretty comfortable” about where the company is “right now”. You can find this statement and quite a bit of useful commentary in the article “Warning: Dependence on Facebook, Twitter Could Be Hazardous to Your Business” here. For me the most important comment in the write up by Mark Glaser was:

If you are planning on using either Twitter or Facebook as a marketing platform for yourself or your business, be sure to read the Terms of Service carefully. That’s what Facebook’s Larry Yu advised when I talked to him. “The important thing for people to do is to review the Terms of Service,” he said. “A lot of people don’t do that. They don’t have experience with it, and we encourage people to do it…There are also terms for application developers. As people decide to develop on the platform, they have to be comfortable with those terms.”

This addled goose is wary of social networks. Some trophy generation denizens believe that they don’t exist unless providing information on these publishing platforms. The trophy kids want to “hook up” and keep their “friends” informed about their activities and where abouts. When one of the trophy kids becomes a person of interest to law enforcement, those social postings are going to be somewhat useful to certain authorities. I wonder if the trophy kids realize that some information which is innocuous at the time it becomes available might provide insights to a more informed thinker. Run a query for profiling and see what you think of that discipline. Finally, there’s a nifty tool called the Analyst’s Notebook. If you are not familiar with it, run a Google query for that puppy. From my point of view the information “in” social systems is fascinating. Technology is an interesting construct. The consequences of technology can be even more interesting. Think search, content processing, link analysis, clustering, and other useful methods crunching on those social data. Yum, yum.



Sun on Privacy: 'Get Over It'
01.26.99
The chief executive officer of Sun Microsystems said Monday that consumer privacy issues are a "red herring."

"You have zero privacy anyway," Scott McNealy told a group of reporters and analysts Monday night
at an event to launch his company's new Jini technology.

"Get over it."


McNealy's comments came only hours after competitor Intel (INTC) reversed course under pressure and disabled identification features in its forthcoming Pentium III chip.

Jodie Bernstein, director of the Bureau of Consumer Protection at the Federal Trade Commission, said that McNealy's remarks were out of line.

"Millions of American consumers tell us that privacy is a grave concern to them when they are thinking about shopping online," Bernstein said.

Sun Microsystems is a member of the Online Privacy Alliance, an industry coalition that seeks to head off government regulation of online consumer privacy in favor of an industry self-regulation approach.

"It is a conundrum, because I know that [Sun is] a member of the Online Privacy Alliance, and they have spoken positively about responding to consumer needs," Bernstein said. "This sounds very different than what we have generally been hearing from members of the alliance."

Privacy watchdogs echoed Bernstein's remarks.

"I'm astonished by Scott's remarks," said Jason Catlett, CEO of Junkbusters, a company that makes privacy software. "I wonder if he heard what Intel decided yesterday? Intel obviously decided that privacy is such a hot spot that they changed plans they've had for months in a matter of hours."

Catlett said the comments are even more surprising in light of the fact that the undersecretary of commerce is currently in Europe to demonstrate to foreign governments that American companies are committed to security and privacy.

"David Aaron is in Europe now saying the United States has adequate privacy protection the same day the chief executive of one of the leading computer companies stands up and says 'you have no privacy,'" Catlett said.

"It's tantamount to a declaration of war."

McNealy made the remarks in response to a question about what privacy safeguards Sun (SUNW) would be considering for Jini. The technology is designed to allow various consumer devices to communicate and share processing resources with one another.

"I think Scott's comments were completely irresponsible and that Sun and Intel and many of these leaders are creating public policy every time they make a product decision," said Lori Fena, chairman of the board of the Electronic Frontier Foundation.

For consumers, McNealy's comments raised questions about Sun's commitment to privacy.

"One might hope that industry leaders such as McNealy would propose solutions to enhance citizen privacy rather than just telling them to 'get over it,'" said Linda Walsh, a consumer concerned about electronic privacy.

"He may have no privacy because of his status as CEO. He shouldn't assume his reality is everyone else's," Walsh said.

In December, a New Hampshire consultant alleged that Sun violated its online privacy agreement and redistributed his personal information against his wishes.

Sun representatives could not be reached for comment.
And  the King shall answer and say unto them, Verily I say unto you, 
Inasmuch as ye have done it unto one of the least of these my brethren,  ye have done it unto me.

Matthew 25:40

Offline squarepusher

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Re: CAESAR III - Inferring Adversary Intent & Estimating Behavior
« Reply #10 on: January 17, 2010, 02:13:32 pm »
Paul Baran (RAND Corporation, responsible for packet-switching networks among other things):


Paul Baran in 1967:
"by moving in this direction, we could easily end up with the most effective, oppressive police state ever created" - Paul Baran, RAND Corporation

http://forum.prisonplanet.com/index.php?topic=155130.msg921530#msg921530

Paul Baran in 2003:
"The Internet is too easy to misuse because of a paranoiac fear of the loss of anonymity. If we eliminated this requirement, mischief makers would no longer have the same freedom for making trouble as today." - Paul Baran, retired from RAND Corporation

http://wiwiw.org/entrevista_ej.pdf

Hence - this guy is fully aware what's going on - but he goes along to get along. His current job is to get people used to living in a 'panopticon' society.

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Offline Satyagraha

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Re: CAESAR III - Inferring Adversary Intent & Estimating Behavior
« Reply #11 on: January 17, 2010, 02:14:44 pm »
Facebook and Twitter: Who Owns What
Stephen Arnold, January 31, 2009
http://arnoldit.com/wordpress/2009/01/30/facebook-and-twitter-who-owns-what/
...
Run a query for profiling and see what you think of that discipline. Finally, there’s a nifty tool called the
Analyst’s Notebook.
If you are not familiar with it, run a Google query for that puppy. From my point of view the information “in” social systems is fascinating. Technology is an interesting construct. The consequences of technology can be even more interesting. Think search, content processing, link analysis, clustering, and other useful methods crunching on those social data. Yum, yum.[/b][/color]


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Identify high-quality intelligence faster with comprehensive analytical and visualization capabilities.

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iBase 8 is a database application that contains unique collaboration and search capabilities enabling the capture, management of data and the dissemination of actionable intelligence and insight in support of intelligence-led operations.

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iBase 8 IntelliShare, part of the iBase family, is a web-based application providing self service, real-time access to intelligence stored in iBase databases; enabling faster, informed decision making and empowering collaboration.
Key Features:

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Key Features:

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    * Flexible and extensible delivery model fits existing enterprise architectures

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    * Powerful algorithms quickly identify patterns and repeating groups of calls in unmanageable volumes of telephone data
    * Import and store multiple telephone call datasets into a central PatternTracer call repository
    * Quickly query and re-query repository as new information is added
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The COPLINK software solution suite organizes and rapidly analyzes vast quantities of structured and seemingly unrelated data, currently housed in various incompatible databases and record management systems, over a highly secure intranet-based platform. COPLINK also provides the most advanced privacy and security features.

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i2 Analyst's Notebook
By Peter Stephenson,CeRNS,
http://www.securecomputing.net.au/Review/66288%2Ci2-analysts-notebook.aspx
Jul 11, 2006 12:00 AM

This is a very different type of analysis tool from those infosec professionals are used to. Link analysis, a crucial aspect of incident response, is usually done manually or by trying to use log correlators. This is a true link analyser with a long pedigree in analysing complex crimes and security incidents.


The application does all the installation work, after which come example charts and a superb help system to quickly move you from installation to production.

Within the first two hours, we had imported and analysed metadata from EnCase for a detailed analysis of data on a hard disk, put in hacker profiles to analyse inter-relationships between hackers and hacks, and analysed a 65,000 record IDS log for links between attacks and attackers.

Link analysis is applied to incident response post mortem. Logs, events and other data feed the link analyser’s analysis process. The easiest way to input data is by importing from a spreadsheet using a CSV file. This allows users to import logs of virtually any kind into the analyser, then the tool sets up the relationships and displays them in various formats.

Once data is organised, viewing relationships is intuitive. Analyst’s Notebook is part of a suite of products that allow very large, complex logs to be analysed and subtle connections to be found in extensive distributed enterprises.

Most documentation is in the help file, which we found helpful, while directories are created with extensive PDF files and examples, as well as a paper Quick Start Guide and a Guide to Power2, the core technology in the product.

Support is also extensive, with online and phone support and consulting teams available to assist with difficult cases.

The product is priced in the range of most forensic tools and far lower than typical log analysis appliances. The product will also reduce significantly the analysis time for an incident, so it can be resolved, production restored and large amounts of data analysed.

Rather than replacing log correlators, Analyst’s Notebook leverages existing investment in expensive tools. The cost of the product and user training will be amortised in the first incident upon which it is used.
And  the King shall answer and say unto them, Verily I say unto you, 
Inasmuch as ye have done it unto one of the least of these my brethren,  ye have done it unto me.

Matthew 25:40

Offline Satyagraha

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Re: CAESAR III - Inferring Adversary Intent & Estimating Behavior
« Reply #12 on: January 17, 2010, 02:22:23 pm »
Facebook user profiles hacked, Wall feature relaying spam
http://www.securecomputing.net.au/News/107015,facebook-user-profiles-hacked-wall-feature-relaying-spam.aspx
By Negar Salek
Mar 31, 2008 2:07 PM

Privacy woes continue to plague Facebook this week following the revelation that a spam campaign is hijacking user accounts and posting messages on the Wall feature of user profiles.

According to security vendor Fortinet, the spam messages link to typical spam sites such as online pharmacy shops, one of which has been sourced to a web host that also serves content for several pill pushing sites.

Fortinet’s Global Security Research Team warned that Wall posts containing links must be handled with care and recommends they should not be followed.

“While hijacked accounts have not been proved to be utilised for anything beyond posting relatively innocuous spam 2.0, it is not a stretch to think that links to drive-by-install malicious sites could be injected at some point,” warned Fortinet.

Users should be wary of phishing attempts when confronted by a login page or upon clicking a link contained in a friend's message, carefully check the login page URL, advised Fortinet.

Facebook's "Wall" feature, allows users to post comments on friends' profiles.

Meanwhile, the co-author of the book ‘Facebook — Now What???’, Jesse Stay revealed in a blog post last week that the incident may be linked to an application on Facebook known as Secret Crush.

Stay wrote that the application installed Spyware on peoples’ computers and Facebook was forced to remove it in January but two months later it still seemed to be wreaking havoc.

“Doing a search for “crush calculator” on Facebook revealed a few groups users have set up to apologise to their friends for someone hacking into their account and sending messages about the “Crush Calculator”.

Additionally, just last week security researchers uncovered a new wave of attacks in which profiles on Facebook were used to post images - in this case the images were of child torture.

According to Fortinet, Facebook has been notified and is looking into the issue.
And  the King shall answer and say unto them, Verily I say unto you, 
Inasmuch as ye have done it unto one of the least of these my brethren,  ye have done it unto me.

Matthew 25:40

Offline Satyagraha

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Re: CAESAR III - Inferring Adversary Intent & Estimating Behavior
« Reply #13 on: January 17, 2010, 02:27:09 pm »
http://epic.org/privacy/facebook/default.html
EPIC Forces Disclosure of Government Contracts with Social Media Companies, Privacy Terms Missing

In response to an EPIC Freedom of Information Act Request, the Government Services Administration released several contracts between the federal government and web 2.0 companies, including agreements with Blip.tv, Blist, Google (YouTube), Yahoo (Flickr), and MySpace. EPIC also obtained amendments to agreements with Facebook, Slideshare.net, Vimeo.com, and AddThis.com.

The contracts do not address the privacy obligations of social media companies.

The GSA letter to EPIC explained that “no specific Web 2.0 guidance currently exists,” but provided EPIC with Training Slides that raise privacy issues. The GSA Agreement with Google actually states that, “to the extent any rules or guidelines exist prohibiting the use of persistent cookies in connection with Provider Content applies to Google, Provider expressly waives those rules or guidelines as they may apply to Google.” Some of the agreements also permit companies to track users of government web sites for advertising purposes. For more information see EPIC Social Network Privacy, EPIC Facebook, and EPIC Cloud Computing. (Aug. 12, 2009)
And  the King shall answer and say unto them, Verily I say unto you, 
Inasmuch as ye have done it unto one of the least of these my brethren,  ye have done it unto me.

Matthew 25:40

Offline Joseon

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Re: CAESAR III - Inferring Adversary Intent & Estimating Behavior
« Reply #14 on: January 17, 2010, 03:41:16 pm »
Sick f**ks. The world needs to know EXACTLY THIS PHRASE because it's time we stopped funding it.

:)


Exactly, progressivism. there will always be conflict. Because out of Chaos comes a new order. so on and so forth. That's what the civilization is ALL about for those that have observed the earth for a few years.
http://www.H20labs.com
http://www.Mercola.com/article/mercury/mercury_elimination.htm

Drink distilled water for Pure Health:

Detox with cilantro:

Omura determined that cilantro could mobilize mercury and other toxic metals rapidly from the CNS.96 97

Spread the Word.

Anti_Illuminati

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Re: CAESAR III - Inferring Adversary Intent & Estimating Behavior
« Reply #15 on: January 17, 2010, 04:43:38 pm »
http://www.dodsbir.net/sitis/archives_display_topic.asp?Bookmark=29794

SITIS Archives - Topic Details      
Program:     SBIR
Topic Num:     AF071-035 (AirForce)
Title:     Innovative Aids: Effects-Based Combat Assessment
Research & Technical Areas:     Sensors, Human Systems
  Objective:     To conduct and explore the implications of effects-based operations on the conduct of combat assessment.
  Description:     The Assessment step, an intelligence function, of the Monitor, Assess, Plan, Engage loop places great importance on the need to assess the effects of an attack in order to determine the need for immediate re-attack. Effects-based operations (EBO) include the creation and assessment of intermediate as well as cascading effects in attaining the end-state objective derived from the commander’s intent and guidance. These effects may be achieved through the application of kinetic (i.e., high explosive) and/or non-kinetic (e.g., cyber-warfare) weapons. Combat assessment in the context of EBO presents particular challenges in that simple physical destruction may no longer be the sole, meaningful indicator of attack effectiveness. Current assessment systems/practices were derived from past experience with aerial bombardment. There was a direct connection between the size and location of bomb craters and the damage inflicted on the target. The analyst conducting combat assessment in an effects-based operational context now requires innovative tools to assist in carrying out this function. Effects may be non-physical and may be intermediate to the achieving of the desired end-state. Research in cognitive (and, possibly, perceptual) process and in analyst-system interface is required to develop and demonstrate assessment tools appropriate to EBO. Cognitive tasks analyses, a component of a structured cognitive systems engineering process, are required to identify analyst requirements. Capability-based measures of effectiveness are required to support the evaluation of effects-based assessment performance. Assessment tools are required which will be demonstrated to satisfy the speed, accuracy, completeness and analyst confidence of these measures.

     PHASE I: Identify and define opportunities for inserting intelligence analyst-aiding technologies appropriate to the conduct of combat assessment tasks in the context of effects-based operations.
  
     PHASE II: Develop and demonstrate intelligence analyst-aiding capabilities for the conduct of effects-based combat assessment. Conduct an example of capability evaluation by applying appropriate capability-based measures of effectiveness.

     DUAL USE COMMERCIALIZATION: Military application: Commercialization of this research is highly feasible especially to the military intelligence, homeland security and homeland defense communities. Commercial application: Commercialization of this research is highly feasible. Similar tools to those to be expected to result from this research can be expected to have application to market research, public opinion polling, and consumer advertising campaign assessment.

  References:     1. Effects-Based Operations (EBO): A Grand Challenge for the Analytical Community http://www.rand.org/publications/MR/MR1477/ 2. Effects-Based Operations: Change in the Nature of Warfare http://www.aef.org/pub/psbook.pdf 3. Air Force Doctrine Document 2-8, Command and Control, 16 Feb 2001 http://www.dtic.mil/doctrine/jel/service_pubs/afd2_8.pdf 4. Combat Assessment http://www.dtic.mil/doctrine/jel/doddict/data/c/01048.html
____________________________________
http://wwwcgi.rand.org/congress/defense/def.0202.html

February 2002

Table of Contents:
A. New Releases

   1.

      Studies
   2.

      Issue Papers
   3.

      Conference Proceedings and Documented Briefings

B. About RAND
C. Subscription Information

-----------------------------------------
A. NEW RELEASES
-----------------------------------------

1. Studies
*******************************

AN EXAMINATION OF THE EFFECTS OF VOLUNTARY SEPARATION INCENTIVES
Authors: Beth J. Asch, John T. Warner

This report uses Defense Manpower Data Center data on Army enlisted personnel to examine whether the Department of Defense's Voluntary Separation Incentive or the Special Separation Bonus (VSI/SSB) program induced substantial separations and whether the program induced more low-quality than high-quality personnel to leave. The analysis suggests that a separation-pay program such as VSI/SSB can be an effective means of inducing separations over and above what would have occurred without such a program.
the research brief: http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB7547
the full report: http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR859/

ARMY DISTANCE LEARNING AND PERSONNEL READINESS
Authors: John D. Winkler, Henry A. Leonard, and Michael G. Shanley

This report summarizes the results of a project that studied ways in which distance learning (DL) technologies could be employed to enhance Army personnel readiness.
the research brief: http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB3028
Read the full report: http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1389/

DEPLOYMENTS AND ARMY PERSONNEL TEMPO
Authors: Ronald E. Sortor, J. Michael Polich

Over the past decade, numerous observers have expressed concerns about "increased tempo" and overseas deployments. This report suggests that the major focus of Army concern about deployments should probably not be on the amount of time that individual soldiers spend overseas (although that should be monitored), but on overall force management, to evenly distribute the burden, minimize short-term readiness impacts, and ensure that longer-term skill development and warfighting capability are sustained.
Read the report: http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1417/

EFFECTS-BASED OPERATIONS (EBO):
A GRAND CHALLENGE FOR THE ANALYTICAL COMMUNITY
Author: Paul K. Davis

Effects-based operations (EBO) are defined for this report as operations conceived and planned in a systems framework that considers the full range of direct, indirect, and cascading effects--effects that may, with different degrees of probability, be achieved by the application of military, diplomatic, psychological, and economic instruments. The report suggests principles for sharpening discussions of EBO, for increasing the rigor of those discussions, and for building the key ideas of EBO into analysis for defense planning, experimentation, and operations planning. It then illustrates the principles with explicit models. Finally, it sketches a possible research program to enrich the base for studying and practicing EBO.
Read the report: http://www.rand.org/pubs/papersubs/monograph_reports/MR1477/

EXPLORING ADVANCED TECHNOLOGIES FOR THE FUTURE COMBAT SYSTEMS PROGRAM
Authors: John Matsumura, Randall Steeb, Thomas J. Herbert, John Gordon, Carl A. Rhodes, Russell W. Glenn, Mike Barbero, Fred Gellert, Phyllis Kantar, Gail Halverson, Rob Cochran, Paul Steinberg

This report assesses technologies, tactics, and operational concepts being considered for future Army rapid-reaction forces, with a focus on their application to small-scale contingencies.
Read the report: http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1332/

KEEPING THE WARFIGHTING EDGE:
AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF ARMY OFFICERS' TACTICAL EXPERTISE
Author: Maren Leed

In an era of new military missions, of repositioning and reduction of forces, and a heightened pace of deployments, the question arises whether today's Army combat leaders have had fewer opportunities to develop tactical skills. This report explores whether between 1990 and 1998 the tenure of key developmental assignments for infantry and armor officers became shorter; the tactical training during those assignments declined significantly; and earlier shifts in career patterns and training meant that such recent officers arrived in key positions with less experience than earlier generations of officers.
Read the report: http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1378/

LIMITED CONFLICTS UNDER THE NUCLEAR UMBRELLA:
INDIAN AND PAKISTANI LESSONS FROM THE KARGIL CRISIS
Authors: Ashley J. Tellis, C. Christine Fair, Jamison Jo Medby

This report examines the views of India and Pakistan on the significance of Pakistan's foray into the Kargil-Dras sector in a limited war that has come to be known as the "Kargil conflict." The analysis evaluates the possibilities of future Kargil-like events and the implications of the lessons each country learned for stability in South Asia.
Read the report: http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1450/

MEASURING INTERDICTION CAPABILITIES IN THE PRESENCE OF ANTI-ACCESS STRATEGIES:
EXPLORATORY ANALYSIS TO INFORM ADAPTIVE STRATEGY FOR THE PERSIAN GULF
Authors: Paul K. Davis, Jimmie McEver, Barry Wilson

This report discusses how U.S. capabilities for interdicting invading ground forces in the Persian Gulf can be adapted over time to maintain the ability to achieve an "early halt" or to counter maneuver forces in other plausible campaigns.
Read the report: http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1471/

OPERATIONS AGAINST ENEMY LEADERS
Author: Stephen T. Hosmer

Over the years, the United States has mounted both overt and covert operations to kill enemy leaders directly or to secure their overthrow either by indigenous coup or rebellion or by external invasion and takedown. This report analyzes some two dozen cases of attacks on leadership from World War II to the present and provides policy and operational lessons about the comparative efficacy and prerequisites for success of different forms of attack, their potential coercive and deterrent value, and the possible unintended consequences of their ill-considered use.
Read the research brief: http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB74/index1.html
Read the full report: http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1385/

SEEKING NONTRADITIONAL APPROACHES TO COLLABORATING AND PARTNERING WITH INDUSTRY
Authors: Bruce Held, Kenneth P. Horn, Christopher Hanks, Michael Hynes, Paul Steinberg, Chris Pernin, Jamison Jo Medby, Jeff Brown

The Army has a growing need to collaborate and partner with industry. This report describes three nontraditional approaches to that goal: (1) forming real-estate public-private partnerships (PPPs), (2)using Army venture capital mechanisms as a research and development funding and collaborating tool, and (3) spinning-off Army activities into federal government corporations (FGCs). The research shows that while the three concepts appear promising, each requires resolution of key issues before it can be seriously considered for implementation.
Read the report: http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1401/

SERVICE RESPONSES TO THE EMERGENCE OF JOINT DECISIONMAKING
Authors: Leslie Lewis, Roger Allen Brown, Charles Robert Roll

An assessment of the manner in which the services have altered their planning, programming, and budgeting processes in response to the changes brought about by the 1986 Goldwater-Nichols legislation.
Read the report: http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1438/

THE SOUTH KOREAN DEBATE OVER POLICIES TOWARD NORTH KOREA:
ISSUES AND IMPLICATIONS
Authors: Norman D. Levin and Yong-Sup Han

This report is the first of three on the public South Korean debate over dealings with North Korea. The focus of all three reports is on the period since March 1998, when Kim Dae Jung became the first leader of South Korea's political opposition ever to be elected president of the country, and on the major actors, interests, and goals influencing South Korean policies.
Read the report: http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1555.0/

SPACE WEAPONS, EARTH WARS
Authors: Bob Preston, Dana J. Johnson, Sean J.A. Edwards, Jennifer Gross, Michael Douglas Miller, Calvin Shipbaugh

This work describes space weapons, how they would work, and how they might be used, as well as how any nation might decide to acquire them and how other nations might react.
Read the full report: http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1209/

SPECIAL OPERATIONS FORCES AND ELUSIVE ENEMY GROUND TARGETS:
LESSONS FROM VIETNAM AND THE PERSIAN GULF WAR
Author: William Rosenau

In the Vietnam War and the Persian Gulf conflict, special operations forces (SOF) conducted reconnaissance operations to locate hidden targets when political and other considerations prevented the deployment of conventional ground units and air power alone was unable to locate and eliminate elusive objectives. There are a number of implications for future operations. This report finds that special operations forces can be effective where conventional ground units and air power alone cannot locate elusive or hidden ground targets, but that there are limitations.
Read the research brief: http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB77/index1.html
Read the full report: http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1408/

SUPPORTING EXPEDITIONARY AEROSPACE FORCES:
ALTERNATIVES FOR JET ENGINE INTERMEDIATE MAINTENANCE
Authors: Mahyar A. Amouzegar, Lionel A. Galway, Amanda Geller

This report assesses how Jet Engine Intermediate Maintenance shops can best be configured to support Expeditionary Aerospace Forces both in peacetime and in war.
Read the research brief: http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB82/index1.html
Read the full report: http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1431/

2. Issue Papers
*******************************

ORGANIZING FOR HOMELAND SECURITY
Author: Lynn E. Davis

In response to the September 11 terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, President Bush put in place a new organizational structure for ensuring the security of the American homeland, creating the Office of Homeland Security. This issue paper discusses the critical issues involved in designing the homeland security organization and in achieving its goals.
Read the issue paper: http://www.rand.org//pubs/issue_papers/IP220/

PREPARING FOR FUTURE WARFARE WITH ADVANCED TECHNOLOGIES:
PRIORITIZING THE NEXT GENERATION OF CAPABILITIES
Authors: John Matsumura, Randall Steeb, Paul Steinberg

This issue paper provides an evaluation of how well selected military capabilities will perform in future conflicts. Primarily, it seeks to address the question, "What capabilities are essential for the future, and how should they be prioritized?" bringing to bear empirical analysis based on sophisticated modeling and simulation recently carried out by RAND researchers. In particular, using a scenario based on experiences in Operation Allied Force in Kosovo in 1999, researchers evaluate how three prioritizations of capabilities might play out in a similar small-scale contingency (SSC) in the 2015 timeframe.
Read the issue paper: http://www.rand.org//pubs/issue_papers/IP215/

3. Conference Proceedings
and Documented Briefings
*******************************

ANALYSIS OF AIR-BASED MECHANIZATION AND VERTICAL ENVELOPMENT CONCEPTS AND TECHNOLOGIES
Authors: Jon Grossman, John Matsumura, Randall Steeb, John Gordon, Tom Herbert, William Sollfrey

This documented briefing explores and assesses the Army's ability to insert mechanized forces in enemy-controlled terrain.
Read the documented briefing: http://www.rand.org/pubs/documented_briefings/DB321/

PROTECTING EMERGENCY RESPONDERS:
LESSONS LEARNED FROM TERRORIST ATTACKS
Authors: Brian Jackson, D.J. Peterson, James Bartis, Tom LaTourrette, Irene Brahmakulam, Ari Houser, Jerry Sollinger

This conference proceeding presents a summary of a December 2001 working conference, sponsored by the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health. Attending were emergency workers who responded to the bombing of the Murrah Building in Oklahoma City, the September 11 attacks on the World Trade Center and the anthrax incidents that occurred during autumn 2001. The conference proceeding addresses the equipment, training and information required to protect emergency responders as they meet the challenge of protecting their communities.
Read the conference proceedings: http://www.rand.org/pubs/conf_proceedings/CF176/

Offline IlluminatiMembers

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Re: CAESAR III - Inferring Adversary Intent & Estimating Behavior
« Reply #16 on: September 28, 2012, 01:39:49 pm »
@ SquarePusher

Tell me about it my friend. I've noticed this along time ago about the whole social networking CEO's. Mark Zuckerberg is up to no good as he made it very obvious in his interview when he pulled off his hoodie and revealed all the Illuminati symbols or Illuminati symbolism . It really makes me sick to see how he is using his whole FB just to learn people interests & profit from it while also promoting his Illuminati subliminal messages within the interior of his jacket. It was so obvious that his is a part of it all...