War Room: "Bubba Effect". Martial Law, Looting, Hyperinflation, Depression, Chaos, America Implodes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8La5xLYo2-sGlenn Beck's War Room (transcript)
Monday, February 23, 2009
BECK: OK. I want to talk to you now about something called the "Bubba effect." I believe this part of the scenario is likely to happen, and I hope to God it doesn't, but we need to talk about it.
Tim Strong is a retired command sergeant major in the U.S. Army.
Hey, Tim, how are you?
CSM TIM STRONG, U.S. ARMY (RET.): Hey, Glenn, good evening. How are you doing tonight?
BECK: Explain what the "Bubba Effect" is. This is something that the military has been concerned about.
STRONG: Well, we'll go back to the segue of the survivalist attitude. You know, it's that American that exists, that believes in trust in American as it currently exists, and, you know, they lose that faith and confidence within the various politicians and the areas that surround them. They end up developing their own infrastructure, their own means to survive, to basically fend for themselves.
The disadvantage to that, Glenn, is with the "Bubba Effect," it's not diesel trucks and all that as we currently refer to, but, you know, they can critically be a key play when it comes to, you know, having their own biofuel, that type of stuff to survive. They'll be very conscious of who enters their own community and it's almost going to be a commune-based society, but they won't project that based on the fact that they want to project normalcy...
BECK: OK.
STRONG: But those that enter their space that are threatening to them. And again, we don't want to use the word "profiling," but that's — you are definitely going to stand out. You are not going to look like a bubba.
BECK: OK.
STRONG: And .
BECK: So, Tim, I want to break here — I have to take a commercial break, but I want to — at the bottom of the hour, I want to come back and show how that community, because that's like a "Mad Max" community.
STRONG: In a sense.
BECK: How that actually — how that actually starts here? How that is probably beginning — it has already begun here in America — and how it manifests itself. What are the other pressures that are building around the globe, and what if the U.S. can no longer be the world's policeman, because the economy, the global economy has broken down?
That scenario, when we return.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ANNOUNCER: Warning: Topics discussed on today's program may be disturbing to some viewers. The views expressed on this program are not predictions of what will happen, but what could happen. The panelists have been asked to think the unthinkable. Viewer discretion is advised.
(MUSIC)
BECK: We're guessing here the situation anywhere; this is the war that possibly is coming to our shores, the war room. We are war-gaming different scenarios. We are not predicting that these things will happen, we are asking — could do they happen? What do we do if they happen?
Here's our second scenario: Global civil unrest. Now, the United States is no longer the world's policeman. Mexico has been taking over by narco gangs. Oil and gas pipelines have been targeted and destroyed. Tourism nonexistent due to safety concerns.
Ukraine is the first European country to fail, eastern European. Ireland is the first western country to fail. Fifty million people worldwide are unemployed. There are riots in the streets.
Joining me now from Berkeley, California, is former CIA operative, Bob Baer — one of the scariest dudes I know. And in Chicago, is Department of Homeland Security's red cell unit, Brad Thor, also author of many bestsellers.
Brad, let me start with you because we're going to start with Mexico. There's breaking news that just came over the wire just the last couple of minutes. I believe you have that update.
BRAD THOR, FORMER DHS RED CELL UNIT: I do. Out of Juarez, that their chief law enforcement officer there has now resigned after one of his officers and a prison guard were killed over the last couple of days, with notes threatening his family and everything. Glenn, this is what we talked about last time I was on with you, is that Mexico is this close to being a failed state. And it's going to be a narco state. And this is going to pose serious, as we discussed before, serious security concerns for the United States.
BECK: Right. And it will lead to, I believe it will play into, at least, the disenfranchisement and a possible uprising here in the United States with — God forbid — please, everybody, have a seat and relax just a little bit.
Bob, on the world stage, what are you most concerned about if these things would come true? What happens to us as we have to retract back into ourselves because we can't afford to be the world's policeman? What concerns you? What does the world look like?
BOB BAER, FORMER CIA OPERATIVE: Well, here's a couple of scenarios that are becoming very real, are becoming not just risks but probability. Let's say we go into a prolonged depression, price of oil falls to $5 or $6 a barrel. The Gulf states start going under one by one. Saudi Arabia depends on very expensive oil, and so does Iran.
Iran's got a population of 70 million. People start to starve. They're out of money, a big army. They move into the Gulf and take it. We have a hostile regime in control of our resources that. That is not that far away.
BECK: You know, we have, I know, both of you gentlemen, we have talked over the years about Iran getting a nuke, and Benjamin Netanyahu is now the guy in charge. And he looked me in the eye and said, "We have a right to survive. We have a right to live." And he was very clear with me that he would not allow Iran to get a nuke, they now have the material to make one.
How much of a role does that play in what's coming?
BAER: Glenn, you know, it's .
THOR: I think — I think it's huge, Glenn. I .
BECK: Go ahead. Brad and then Bob.
THOR: I think it's going — I think it's going to be a big deal, especially if this crisis, and I have confidence in America, I don't think we're going to get wiped off the map as far as just having to remove ourselves from the world stage. But if it does happen, if we're war-gaming that here, Israel, if your older brother is all of a sudden not at the playground with you one morning, your younger brother needs to step up and knock the biggest kid right in the teeth if he doesn't want to have problems. I wouldn't begrudge Israel the right to do that for a second.
BECK: Bob?
BAER: Glenn, there is — there is a pool at the Pentagon right now. I talked to a couple of officers in the last couple of days, that what are the chances of a major war in the Middle East and they are putting it at 55 percent with Netanyahu's appointment today.
BECK: What does that — what does that do to us, Bob? You know, Arch Duke Ferdinand was a guy that most people in America never even heard of. He was gunned down in the streets and all of a sudden, we were in World War I and the whole world was at war, and we were there with them.
BAER: I'll tell — I'll tell you the way it goes, Glenn. Netanyahu goes into Gaza, Gaza City, and at the same time, there's rockets coming across the border from Lebanon. The Israelis are obligated to go into Damascus and hit Hamas headquarters there, hit Hezbollah. That will pull in Iran. There will be retaliation against Iran.
Iran has a couple thousand rockets facing, again, this is my bias, but facing the oil facilities on the other side of the Gulf. And they have promised — and I truly believe they will — they'll fire the rockets at these oil facilities and this will all occur within minutes. I mean, this is a risk, it's not a certainty, but this is the kind of considerations that are going on at the Pentagon today.
BECK: Does anybody — did anybody — and this is one of the things that really woke me up. And it was after 9/11. I remember the first time I read it. It was Osama bin Laden, and he said "What I did to Russia, I will bring to the United States." And I thought — you arrogant SOB, you didn't bring down Russia. It was Reagan and the Pope and Thatcher.
And indeed, he played a huge role. We all did. It was the perfect storm, and about five years ago, that's — when I reread it again and I went, "Oh, my gosh."
That's what I'm most concerned about, is that there are so many of these things that could be huge, but also, that's tied in to what would happen in the Middle East is also tied in to just running over Europe. Europe, itself, is teetering with Muslim extremists as well.
How does the world stand without America standing there and being prepared to deal with it?
THOR: Glenn, you know, this is a very important point that you brought up. What happens with America not there is exactly what happens when the teacher leaves the classroom. A lot of these people go wild. I'm talking in particular in the Muslim world.
And what you have in western Europe, in particular, is they are no longer going to be able to be embarrassed how we interact with them or how we think about them and how they deal with this threat over there. They are going to fold like a cheap wallet. They already are falling. We saw with Geert Wilders when they wouldn't let him to speak and he got invited to the House of Parliament there.
So, this is a big problem. And Bin laden also said that his goal was to cripple us economically. So, what a great time to kick America is when it is in a financial crisis to try to make it worse.
BECK: Yes. And we all said, you know, we all didn't have a problem thinking that the Russia could fall and collapse from economics, and yet, for some reason, a lot of Americans are like, "Oh, that will never happen to us." Why? What makes us different?
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ANNOUNCER: Warning, topics discussed on today's program may be disturbing to some viewers. The views expressed in this program are not predictions of what will happen, but what could happen. The panelists have been asked to think the unthinkable. Viewer discretion is advised.
BECK: Tonight is a special, it's the "War Room." We are war gaming different scenarios. We are not predicting these things will happen. In fact, I think everybody on the set is praying these things don't happen, but it's interesting.
We were talking in the middle of the break that most of the people on the set and that are joining us via satellite really think these are the light scenarios. These are the bedtime stories, as Bob Baer said just a minute ago. We are just asking what would we do if they did happen.
Our third scenario: anger and discontent at home. The year is 2014. Many Americans are feeling disenfranchised. People are isolated from their political leaders and have been betrayed over and over and over again. Internet connects like-minded people and the "Bubba Effect" — a rise in individual militias.
With me now is Michael Scheuer. He is the former head of the CIA Bin Laden unit. And back again is Tim Strong, a retired command sergeant major in the U.S. Army.
Quickly, let me just — before we go, let me go to Michael and Gerald here on — or Stephen. Stephen, give me the —
MOORE: I'm not Michael.
BECK: God. Stephen, give me the — real quick, how much are taxes — in our scenario of 2014 to pay for all the stuff that we're doing, how much are taxes?
MOORE: We tried to pay for all of the spending we have done in just the last 18 months with higher tax rates. The Heritage Foundation and other groups have estimated that the tax rate at the top would have to go to 80, 90, perhaps even 95 percent, which means that 95 percent of everything you make would have to go to the government just to pay for what we have already spent money on.
BECK: Gerald, what happens to the people when you start taxing?
GERALD CELENTE, FOUNDER, TRENDS RESEARCH INSTITUTE: Tax revolts.
BECK: Yes, tax revolts.
CELENTE: We all heard it on CNBC.
BECK: But you're not talking about a tea party.
CELENTE: Oh, no, no. This is going to be violent. People can't afford it anymore.
BECK: OK.
CELENTE: The cities are going to look like Dodge City. They're going to be uncontrollable. You're going to have gangs in control, motorcycle marauders. You're not going to have enough police or federalis, just like Mexico, to control the situation.
BECK: Tim, I want to come back to you now. You're a credible guy. You were one of the first guys in Iraq, if I'm not mistaken, during this war. You have been with the military a very long time. You were one of the guys on the frontlines.
Michael, you were up in the caves hunting for Usama bin Laden. You guys have all the credibility there can be on thinking the unthinkable and living the unthinkable. Tim, let me come back to you and ask you about the "Bubba Effect." As I understand, the "Bubba Effect," prior to what you set up in the opening, it is — let's say there is a rancher who's protecting his property down in Texas or Arizona, like the rancher that just lost this week.
And he defends his property. The ATF and the FBI come down. They arrest him. They haul him away. There has got to be Texans and Arizonans — they say, "Whoa, wait a minute, hang on. You people knew this was going to happen. Mexico has collapsed. They're coming across. I have a right to protect my own property." That's the "Bubba Effect."
Now the government has to make a choice who the bad guys and who the good guys are, because people have been so disenfranchised. Is that possible?
STRONG: Glenn, that's totally possible, and that's the problem, because the Bubbas are compliant to civil, you know, right or civil ordain. The problem you have, Glenn, is you've got people that are going to do the right thing to truly protect the interests of the United States to include their own.
But they're the ones that will be apprehended for it, because they did something to somebody that was not in compliance with what the U.S. Government - because it's easy to arrest a guy who is going to be orderly and conduct himself accordingly, because that's what our society breeds.
BECK: So —
STRONG: The problem is —
BECK: No. Go ahead. No, finish.
STRONG: No, no. The problems is, you know, that it's going to get to the point where you see the other Texans and Arizonans that aren't going to allow to be arrested because of the first and second individuals at war. So your second and third orders of effect are going to become your Bubbas hunkering down and being anti-government.
BECK: OK. Michael, the government coming in and disenfranchising people over and over and over again, and having the people say, "Please listen to us," the average person, some people will listen to the government, but others - and I'm seeing it already.
They know the Constitution. They know the writings of the founders, and they feel that the government, or they will in this scenario, and I think we're on this road - the government has betrayed the Constitution. And so they will see themselves as people who are standing up for the Constitution.
So how do you defuse this, Michael, or how long even do we have before this becomes a crazy real scenario?
MICHAEL SCHEUER, FORMER HEAD OF THE CIA BIN LADEN UNIT: Well, I don't think you would want to defuse it, Glenn. We have had a 40-minute program so far, and all of the problems we have talked about in one way or another are the result of the American government either overspending or overreaching.
BECK: Wait, wait, wait, wait. Wait a minute. Are both of you guys saying that you don't want to — I don't think we would head for an American revolution. We would head for a French revolution.
SCHEUER: Civil war.
BECK: This is the scenario that would tear this country apart, and spiral us into something that maybe we have never even seen before, including the civil war.
SCHEUER: Glenn, the Second Amendment is about, at base, not about hunting or about a militia, but about resisting tyranny. The founders were very concerned about allowing individual citizens weaponry to defend themselves as a last resort against the tyrannical government.
I don't think the government — the founders ever considered that there would be a tyranny of incompetence, but I think that's what we're facing.
BECK: OK. Wait. Gentlemen —
SCHEUER: And ultimately, that's the right of the Americans.
BECK: Both of you guys — I mean, I can't believe I'm hearing this. And don't get me wrong. I am against the government, and I think that they have just been horrible, and I do think they are betraying the principles of our founders every day they're in office.
But I have to tell you, this scenario scares the living daylights out of me because it is completely — it is shaking nitroglycerine.
You both served in the military. You tell me, do the soldiers come in and do they round up people? Or do they fight with the people for the Constitution? What is the Army? What does the military do?
Neither one of you — you just said that, Michael Scheuer, but you won't say which side the military chooses?
SCHEUER: No. I don't think the military is ever going to shoot on the American people, Sir. I think —
BECK: OK. Then —
SCHEUER: The military, of all people, read the Constitution every year right through.
BECK: OK. Can you give me an extra minute? Tim, I want to ask you real quick. Tim, we have military exercises going on in Iowa right now. We have a battalion, I believe, in Maryland. People are training for civil unrest all over the country.
I believe the answers, you know, that they give and they say this is for this kind of unrest or this kind of unrest, except we just had in our stimulus package, a way for — if your governor says no to the money, the legislature can go around the governor and go right to the feds.
It is this kind of thing that would make the federal government say, "You know what? We can call up the National Guard. We don't need your governor to do it." Do you believe those scenarios or is this crackpot stuff?
STRONG: No. Hey, Glenn, I think that's a possibility. But to be frank with you, you know, Civil War — history repeats itself. And I don't think that you will have brothers fighting each other like we did back in the Civil War. We've learned our lesson. It is state-owned but also state-sponsored by those people of that community.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,498765,00.html"The Bradley effect, less commonly called the Wilder effect (ad. Bubba effect), is a theory proposed to explain observed discrepancies between voter opinion polls and election outcomes in some US government elections where a white candidate and a non-white candidate run against each other. Instead of ascribing the results to flawed methodology on the part of the pollster, the theory proposes that some voters tend to tell pollsters that they are undecided or likely to vote for a black candidate, and yet, on election day, vote for his white opponent. It was named after Tom Bradley, an African-American who lost the 1982 California governor's race despite being ahead in voter polls going into the elections.
The Bradley effect theorizes that the inaccurate polls were skewed by the phenomenon of social desirability bias Specifically, some white voters give inaccurate polling responses for fear that, by stating their true preference, they will open themselves to criticism of racial motivation."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effectI find it interesting that this new coined term that is being thrown around to describe political & economic unrest should find it's roots in a theoretical hypothesis pertaining to racism in politics.
