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Byrne0ut
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« on: February 07, 2009, 02:50:34 PM » |
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As the regular readers may be familiar with some guy named Reinhardt who I just started hearing about has supposedly accurately predicted the last two major "black mondays" in this economic crisis. He is predicting that there will be some terrible news that comes out which leads the market to come crashing downward on Monday February 9. I am going to handicap this and see what you guys think.
Market Crashes Monday February 9 2009 -125 (the current favorite, but not by much)
Market Does not Crash February 9 2009 +115
Alright since you certainly wont be able to make any money putting your money into the stock market we might as well try and find a way to have some fun with it.
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Byrne0ut
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« Reply #1 on: February 07, 2009, 02:52:43 PM » |
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I should clarify, it will be considered a crash if the market drops at least 5% in one day. Which at the current prices that would be if the DOW loses 420 points.
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Curtj5
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« Reply #2 on: February 07, 2009, 03:05:13 PM » |
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I'll take +115
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thadividedsky
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« Reply #3 on: February 07, 2009, 04:37:37 PM » |
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give me -125 here's the reward. an avatar.  |
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David Rothscum
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« Reply #4 on: February 07, 2009, 04:48:52 PM » |
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I don't see it happening.
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Orgetorix
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« Reply #5 on: February 07, 2009, 04:51:29 PM » |
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20 Ameros on a crash.
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Waterboy2go
Member
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Posts: 205
Why so socialist?
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« Reply #6 on: February 07, 2009, 04:53:29 PM » |
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Ill take the bet it does
Also, I'll see your 20 Ameros and raise you 10
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"People should not fear their government, the governments should fear their people."
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CANADIAN-guerilla
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« Reply #7 on: February 07, 2009, 05:17:47 PM » |
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what kind of odds can i get on a 2000 pt drop over the week of Feb 9-13 ?
and what about odds of a BANK HOLIDAY over the above week ?
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food shortages and/or near starvation
will be the tactic/strategy used by TPTB to get america's guns
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snafu
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« Reply #8 on: February 07, 2009, 05:44:12 PM » |
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 this is how i feel |
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Can someone send me some anthrax?
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papiowhisperer
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Posts: 86
Nobody's Slave
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« Reply #9 on: February 07, 2009, 05:50:38 PM » |
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what kind of odds can i get on a 2000 pt drop over the week of Feb 9-13 ?
and what about odds of a BANK HOLIDAY over the above week ?
I'm with this guy. |
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information spreads at the speed of light, while ignorance is instantaneous at all points in the known universe - Dmitri Orlov
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gEEk squad
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« Reply #10 on: February 07, 2009, 05:54:33 PM » |
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I'd bet on a 420+ drop!
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Byrne0ut
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« Reply #11 on: February 07, 2009, 05:54:38 PM » |
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what kind of odds can i get on a 2000 pt drop over the week of Feb 9-13 ?
and what about odds of a BANK HOLIDAY over the above week ?
Odds on the 2000 pt. drop i will put at 450-1 Bank Holiday 1500-1 |
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papiowhisperer
Member
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Posts: 86
Nobody's Slave
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« Reply #12 on: February 07, 2009, 05:57:22 PM » |
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I'll go with the bank holiday.
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information spreads at the speed of light, while ignorance is instantaneous at all points in the known universe - Dmitri Orlov
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bobkelso
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« Reply #13 on: February 07, 2009, 06:29:46 PM » |
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My guess is...  |
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Revolt426
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« Reply #14 on: February 07, 2009, 06:35:03 PM » |
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I dont think this will happen but i do not have a crystal ball. The DOW began an inflationary rally that will probably last a few months ,the only thing that could stop it is the intentional collapse of a major bank.
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"Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate … It will purge the rottenness out of the system..." - Andrew Mellon, Secretary of Treasury, 1929.
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2010
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« Reply #15 on: February 07, 2009, 06:37:02 PM » |
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I dont think it will crash. On the 9th.
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Orgetorix
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« Reply #16 on: February 07, 2009, 07:36:31 PM » |
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I dont think this will happen but i do not have a crystal ball. The DOW began an inflationary rally that will probably last a few months ,the only thing that could stop it is the intentional collapse of a major bank.
I could see a 5% correction. I'm not sure if it will happen either, but certainly 420 points in one day is not out of the realm of possibilities. Stocks are over valued and gold is under valued. |
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2010
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« Reply #17 on: February 09, 2009, 11:20:41 AM » |
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today is the day.  does anyone know a good website to watch the stockmarkets live? thanks, |
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tritonman
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« Reply #18 on: February 09, 2009, 11:25:02 AM » |
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ummm, the markets are up .3 I think we may well have yet another date that comes and goes.
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Byrne0ut
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« Reply #19 on: February 09, 2009, 11:33:12 AM » |
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i knew his prediction was horse shite.
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NWOSCUM
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« Reply #20 on: February 09, 2009, 11:36:54 AM » |
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I don't think he said the market would crash TODAY. What he implied was that something would happen today that would cause the market to crash by or on Friday.
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"The receptivity of the great masses is very limited, their intelligence is small, and their power of forgetting is enormous." --Adolph Hitler, "Mein Kampf"
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Revolt426
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« Reply #21 on: February 09, 2009, 11:44:00 AM » |
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I declare shinnagans on Reinhardts prediction, he specifically said the 9th of FEB.
The previous prediction was also a market collapse, which did not even happen on Sep 15th, Lehman just went down and caused a chain reaction to AIG.
He probably had inside information on Lehman's private balance sheets or had information on JP Morgan Chase because they are the ones that caused the Lehman Collapse by Withholding a 19 Billion dollar loan 2 days prior to it's collapse.
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"Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate … It will purge the rottenness out of the system..." - Andrew Mellon, Secretary of Treasury, 1929.
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Suriel
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« Reply #22 on: February 09, 2009, 11:45:11 AM » |
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If the past bailout was any indication then the dow will not start tanking until after the new bailout is passed.
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"We have reached a stage at which we have surrounded ourselves with more things, but have less joy." - The Brothers Karamazov by Fyodor Dostoevsky translated by Ignat Avsey
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Revolt426
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« Reply #23 on: February 09, 2009, 11:48:10 AM » |
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If anything the DOW will have an inflationary rally for 1-2 months and then collapse.
When i saw the prediction at first i immediately dismissed it as nonsense , but then i saw Geithner delay his bailout speech till tomorrow and got suspicious that the market would tank today, it has not tanked at all as of now.
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"Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate … It will purge the rottenness out of the system..." - Andrew Mellon, Secretary of Treasury, 1929.
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Byrne0ut
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« Reply #24 on: February 09, 2009, 11:56:42 AM » |
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yea i wouldn't consider being down 30 points tanking, I wonder what excuse reinhardt comes up with. Thats why I love these dated predictions, when the people are stone cold wrong they then have to come up with some excuse as to why they are wrong. I mean has anybody ever been to Reinhardts website, either i dont know how to navigate his page or there really is not one thing of substance at his site. Enterprisecorruption.com
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David Rothscum
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« Reply #25 on: February 09, 2009, 01:31:12 PM » |
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I don't see it happening.
I was right, Reinhardt was wrong. Therefore, I declare myself the new patriot messiah, and oust Reinhardt from the thrown. As the new patriot messiah, my first job will be to declare the new magical date on which the shit is going to hit the fan. I've decoded every form of Illuminati numerology, looked at all the economic data, looked at the astrological patterns, and even used my patriotic made in America crystal ball I ordered from www.patrioticcrystalballs.com, and all point at the same date: Tomorrow. Tomorrow the autism rate will have increased, the Alzheimer's rate will have increased, the sperm count will have declined, the unemployment rate will have increased, and it'll be even harder to prevent the complete economic collapse. Tomorrow more people will die from our elite's illegal wars more people will starve to death, and we'll be one step closer to a worldwide agricultural collapse. Tomorrow it'll all be just a líttle worse than today. Don't panic, even if you don't have all your guns and your stored food yet, because it won't save you. It will continue to get worse until these criminals are incapable of continuing their crimes. Don't sit and wait either, not caring about what happens to you or this movement because it's all over after the next doomsday, because it won't be over. As long as you can provide some form of resistance it's not over. Most importantly, take everything anyone in this movement says with a grain of salt, including me. None of us are messiahs, none have ever been capable of accurately predicting something and none ever will. Do your own research, even if it seems like you're reinventing the wheel, because that's the only way you're going to find out the truth. You don't believe your government, so why should you believe any of us? Don't even trust your own instinct. Trust on your own conclusions based on facts, and on your own ability to use your intellect, instead of your gut feeling or someone else's, to understand the world around you. |
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Waterboy2go
Member
Offline
Posts: 205
Why so socialist?
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« Reply #26 on: February 09, 2009, 02:21:06 PM » |
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Bloody hell! I'm out 30 Ameros!
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"People should not fear their government, the governments should fear their people."
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gEEk squad
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« Reply #27 on: February 09, 2009, 03:04:48 PM » |
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Although the market did not crash today to Reinhardt's credit he never specifically said that on 2/9/2009 the market would crash (if you can find any concrete evidence of this I'd like to see it). For awhile he has linked the 9th with the stimulus bill. He has told people on IRC and in phone conversations that the market will decline by over 1000 whenever the stimulus bill passes and has said that it will happen before the week is over. The vote on the stimulus and Geithner's announcement have both been postponed. Yes Reinhardt was a little misleading by always talking about the 9th, but many people read more into it than they should have. You should NEVER trust someone implicitly especially when they are talking about a concrete date months in advance. If you want "substance" from his pages then I suggest going to http://www.wiredpirate.com . There are pdf's of all of his weekly journals which have lots of great information and a different look on things. |
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Orgetorix
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« Reply #28 on: February 09, 2009, 03:12:47 PM » |
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Choppy session on Wall Street
Stocks sway on stimulus debate while bank stocks rally for the third session ahead of the bailout plan.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Financial shares rallied Monday, but the broader market struggled as the announcement of the overhaul of the bank bailout was delayed and Congress continued to squabble about the stimulus package.
The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 9 points or 0.1% according to early tallies. The Standard & Poor's 500 (SPX) index added 1 point or 0.1%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) was barely changed.
"People were expecting to get the details about the bank bailout plan today, and the delay means the market has no real catalyst one way or the other," said John Forelli, portfolio manager at Independence Investments.
He said that once the new version of the bailout plan is announced and once Congress agrees on a stimulus plan, stocks should get a boost.
"These two programs are good indications that the new administration is willing to throw money at the problem, which should be reassuring to the market," he said.
Stocks rallied Friday as optimism about the government's economic stimulus bill and the new version of the bank bailout plan countered unease following the brutal January jobs report. All three major gauges ended higher for the week, ending a four-session losing streak.
But after such a run, stocks were vulnerable to selling pressure Monday.
Economic stimulus: The Senate has reached a tentative agreement on a new version of the economic stimulus bill. After more than a week of heated debate, lawmakers have reportedly managed to cut the proposed $900 billion plan down to $827 billion. A vote is expected Tuesday.
However, Senate approval of the plan is just another step in the process. The House of Representatives already approved an $819 billion version of the plan in a party-line vote nearly two weeks ago.
If the Senate bill passes, leaders will need to negotiate a final bill with the House. (Here's how the plans differ.)
TARP reform: Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner was expected to speak Monday about how the government plans to use the remaining $350 billion of the Treasury's Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP).
However, the speech was postponed until Tuesday so as to keep the focus on the stimulus plan.
Market pros think Geithner might announce the creation of a so-called "bad bank" that would let the government remove bad assets from bank balance sheets. This would purportedly get banks to start lending again.
Another possibility is that the Treasury could suspend or change the "mark-to-market" accounting rule, meaning the government could buy the assets at a price that is below market rate, but not at fire sale prices.
Such a change would address criticisms that the Bush administration overpaid for the bad assets it bought with the first half of the TARP.
Financial shares: Bank shares continued to rally after Friday's advance, ahead of the latest TARP news.
Large banks such as Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) and Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) advanced modestly. But smaller banks rallied more sharply, including Fifth Third (FITB, Fortune 500), Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) and Regions Financials (RF, Fortune 500).
Barclay's (BCS) posted a better-than-expected 2008 profit as a one-time gain from its purchase of the North American operations of Lehman Brothers helped temper massive writedowns. Shares jumped 11%.
Shares of NYSE Euronext (NYX) fell after the operator of the New York Stock Exchange and the Euronext stock exchanges posted a big quarterly loss.
Hartford Financial Services (HIG, Fortune 500) and Genworth Financial (GNW, Fortune 500) were among the life insurance stocks rallying on hopes that requests for aid from the bank bailout plan could soon arrive.
General Electric (GE, Fortune 500) also rallied in tune with the financial sector.
Other company news: Nissan (NSANY) warned that it will post a loss for its current fiscal year and that it will cut 20,000 jobs.
General Motors (GM, Fortune 500) is reportedly in discussions to take back part of Delphi, the auto-parts supplier it spun off a decade ago. The move is part of the company's plans to line up additional bailout funds from the government, which has already given the company more than $13 billion. Other reports said GM could be planning to cut up to 5,000 salaried workers.
Market breadth was mixed. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers by eight to seven on volume of 1.26 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners topped advancers by eight to seven on volume of 1.88 billion shares.
Bonds: Treasury prices slumped, raising the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.01% from 2.98% Friday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.
Lending rates were mostly unchanged. The 3-month Libor rate slipped slightly to 1.23% from 1.24% Friday, according to Bloomberg.com. The overnight Libor rate held steady at 0.31%. Libor is a bank lending rate.
Other markets: In global trading, Asian markets were mixed and European markets ended higher.
The dollar fell against the euro and yen.
U.S. light crude oil for March delivery fell 61 cents to settle at $39.56 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
COMEX gold for April delivery fell $21.50 to settle at $892.80 an ounce.
Gasoline prices rose three-tenths of a cent to a national average of $1.924 a gallon, according to a survey of credit-card swipes released Monday by motorist group AAA.
First Published: February 9, 2009: 11:09 AM ET Dang lost 20 Ameros, oh well. |
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bobkelso
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« Reply #29 on: February 09, 2009, 05:57:08 PM » |
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Reinhardt hurt me  |
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thadividedsky
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« Reply #30 on: February 09, 2009, 06:00:21 PM » |
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so much for him. Enjoy the new avatar  |
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TruthDoesntFear
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« Reply #31 on: February 10, 2009, 02:47:13 PM » |
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sentinel, the link didn't work, can you fix it?
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Monkeypox
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« Reply #32 on: February 10, 2009, 02:49:03 PM » |
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this is how i feel We noticed.  |
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War Is Peace - Freedom Is Slavery - Ignorance Is Strength
"Educate and inform the whole mass of the people... They are the only sure reliance for the preservation of our liberty."
—Thomas Jefferson
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TruthDoesntFear
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« Reply #33 on: February 10, 2009, 09:27:41 PM » |
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sorry mate....i think you gotta join. only takes a few minutes and there is some mind blowing research on there...
cheers..
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the forum messed up the link, it shortened it and added three dots |
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