Youri Carma: Economic Forecast - 22 January 2009

[Letsbereal]

Economic Forecast: 22 January 2009, By Youri Carma


Well the whole world doesn’t know what they are doing but UK is in the most worse shape unfortunately.

Watch Joe Stiglitz (Click movie on the right of the webpage)
http://www.ft.com/cms/3cf2381c-c064-11dd-9559-000077b07658.html?_i_referralObject=1004880929&fromSearch=n

He says not spending money is a problem but as we know spending is also a problem “between the hard and the rock place.”

I don’t fully agree with Joe cause I think first stop all existing (wrong) spending and come up with a economical sane spending plan.

Every country now the banks are (temporally) in the hands of the state. Money has to pored in but with which argument or economical theory?

The do it because everyone else is doing it, that’s my conclusion.

It’s the same as Greenspans inflating, inflating low interest rates which exactly (well there are more factors) caused this!

There won’t be an alternative approach before the whole system collapses again with the next treasury bubble and dollar fall.

Joe Stiglitz; “in the long run we have to face the depth”

Tip “Ambrose Evans-Pritchard” will follow this guys opinions more closely.

My list; Paul Graig Roberts, Bob Chapman, Peter Schiff, Max Keiser, Michael Chussodovsky, Joe Stiglitz, Tarply, Jim Rogers.

I like to add that the situation in which taxpayers have to rescue the financial business with future generations of taxpayers having to pay the bill is simply ridiculous!

It’s the biggest scam of the 21 century which will unravel itself in the coming months - years.

The rightious way to have handled this situation in my opinion is the way they handled the Tulp Mania in 1637 in Holland (the Netherlands)
http://www.answers.com/topic/the-tulip-mania

I proposed this (but who am I) far back in 2008 to throw away the old book keeping and start all over again.

I will assure you that this eventually will happen anyways but on the hard way cause it’s already to late for the soft way with all these reckless bailout spending.

A world currency or dollar devaluation is exactly the same so, why didn’t they do it right from the start?

Cause they are (and the world also) are out of their freakin sane Letsbereal minds, it’s mass delusional psychology in my humble opinion.

They will try to inflate themselves out of depth!

http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2009/01/21/as-big-brother-steps-up-time-for-credit/#comment-5765

[ConcordeWarrior]

Economic Forecast: 22 January 2009, By Youri Carma
Well the whole world doesn’t know what they are doing but UK is in the most worse shape unfortunately.

The UK is in desperate condition thanks to Tony B.liar and Gordon Brown.

Spain is also in really bad shape. France will follow, then Italy.

We have not seen it all happening yet. Just wait. 

[Letsbereal]

Yep, we have some strong Nations in the European community and some weak. The weak are Portugal, Spain, Italy, Greece but also France has a substantial depth now compared with their GDP. The U.K. was the trampoline for toxic products and Neo Liberal ideas (like the hedgefund) from the U.S. next to the leveraged products produced in Europe. The U.S. Toxic leveraged products where simply recycled in the various European laundry projects. But that's why the U.K. has the most problems at the moment with the creditcrunch and all they where more heavily involved the the faulty economics system.

But also the stronger brothers of the EU took huge loses and are in for a second round of vicious black hole Bank in lay.

The funny thing is that there is a lot of talk about globalization but what you in fact see is that one institution in Europe never could have produced the right anti dope against the financial crises since all the different members of the Union have different infections depending on how much the got involved in that faulty system and their economic role all together. Max Keiser brought me back to this very sane idea or view on the whole situation!

In fact the crises proves to be a lesson how big organizations would have failed to give each member of the Union they personal special treatment the need economically speaking.
This crises is a victory for the anti-Globalists.

The stronger brothers of the EU are facing very troublesome times with not only a fast train coming from the right (American waste) but also from the left (The weak brothers in the Union).

[Letsbereal]

...but also France has a substantial depth now compared with their GDP.

France’s AAA Rating May Be at Risk on Debt, ING Says (Update1)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aPIckLrGsg9A&refer=home
By Anchalee Worrachate

Jan. 23 (Bloomberg) -- France’s AAA rating may be at risk as the deepening economic slump erodes tax revenue and forces the country to raise borrowing, according to ING Groep NV.

“I’m not saying France is going to be downgraded, but the level of debt puts them in a spot of danger,” Padhraic Garvey, head of investment-grade debt strategy in Amsterdam at ING, said in an interview. “Their AAA rating is under stress.”

Standard & Poor’s affirmed France’s AAA rating last week, assigning it a “stable” outlook.

The cost of economic stimulus packages amid the deepest slump in the euro area’s 10-year history is inflating budget deficits around the region, fueling concern governments will have difficulty paying their debt. S&P cut Spain’s AAA sovereign rating one step to AA+ on Jan. 19. Greece’s classification was lowered to A- from A five days earlier and Portugal’s rating was reduced to A+ from AA- on Jan. 21.

The French government increased its 2009 budget-deficit forecast for the third time in 2 1/2 months on Jan. 20 to 4.4 percent of gross domestic product, the most since 1995. The European Commission forecast it will be 5.4 percent. Public debt will rise to as high as 70 percent of GDP this year, from 67 percent in 2008, Budget Minister Eric Woerth said Jan.20.

The extra yield investors demand to hold 10-year French bonds instead of benchmark German bunds widened to 57 basis points on Jan. 21, the most since the euro’s debut a decade ago. The average spread in the past 10 years is 8 basis points. It was 55 basis points today.


Shrinking Economy

The euro region’s 16-nation economy will shrink 1.9 percent this year, the first contraction since the euro’s introduction, the European Commission forecast on Jan. 19. France’s economy will contract 1.8 percent, the severest recession in six Decades, according to the commission.

The French economy “will again begin to expand once the global economic uncertainties fade,” S&P said Jan. 13. “Should the large budgetary imbalances and relatively high gross debt deteriorate over the medium term beyond our expectations, the ratings would likely come under downward pressure.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Anchalee Worrachate in London at aworrachate@bloomberg.net;
Last Updated: January 23, 2009 08:31 EST