I just heard Alex say this is an unsubstantiated rumor at this point.
I'd consider it a rumor too if it weren't for the September 19th prediction talked about on Coast to Coast AM;
http://www.urbansurvival.com/week.htmScaling September
I had a long conversation with head time monk Cliff of
www.halftpasthuman.com last evening about what may be ahead for the markets in September. As you may recall, the predictive linguistics work, which just called the August 13-16 'panic/calamity window' has another period coming up September 3-18/19 where there's an 'emotional release'. That emotional release period doesn't guarantee markets will go down, but it it seems that it could. With reports of someone taking on a huge trade bettering on a 30% decline in the markets by the September 21st options expiration date, I decided to line up a little home grown research to see what the numbers would tell me.
The approach is quite simple: I shared with Peoplenomics.com subscribers a week ago how to use open interest on call and put options to determine where what I'd call the 'equilibrium point' is expected to be come September 21st's options expiration.
I've been keeping track on the back of an envelope (ok, a really, really BIG envelope t then) what the markets seem to be telegraphing us about expected closing levels in September.
For example, on September 15th which I took my first reading on the Sept. S&P options, the equilibrium point, where the long and short options balanced, seemed to point at around 1,460-1,465 as the 'consensus' and the put to call ratio was 1.4702. In other words, for each long/expecting markets to go up, there were 1.4702 bets that the market would be going down.
Now, fast forward six trading days to the close of business Thursday/preopen figures from this morning and let's see how the picture has changed, if at all: Today, the equilibrium point has dropped to between 1435 and 1440. Also, the put to call ratio has increased to 1.5162, meaning there are a few more people taking the 'markets will drop' bet.
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There has been some speculation on various message boards about what's going on - some are suggesting that a Big Player knows the markets will be trashed in September, while others look at this as a normal market action - because with plenty of bears around, funds holding a lot of stock can sell puts and increase their yield. (The data pipes for the next linguistics run are open so we can spot discussions like this as the web bot project lives on language out of discussion groups/news groups).
Part of me wants to believe that the action is nothing more than strong hands selling off puts to hungry bears with the idea of fattening their portfolios. But, the idea that a major Big Player has some inside information and is laying in puts with a purpose hasn't escaped my attention, either. You might recall that there were lots of puts laid on before 9/11 and as best I can recall, no official investigation ever got to the bottom of who made money on that event.
Add to this, the idea that linguistically something is going to change the world again starting about September 19th. This new technology suggests that there will be a 72 day period of building emotions that will last for 72 days. By comparison, the events post 9/11 lasted for about 6 1/2 days in modelspace. After that, the markets were getting back to normal and the new 'changed world' was pretty much in plain sight. But, during those 6 1/2 days, the was a lot of emotional tension as people got a bead on the 'new worldview' and new 'way of things'. In that 6 1/2 day window, the markets had to readjust, the planes that were grounded got through their start-up, and airport security went from simple to very high.
So, we find ourselves asking "What kind of event in the world could cause a 72-day emotional build? That would be on the order of 11-times as long a building period as post 9/11 and, at the end of it, there's supposed to be emerging an effective end of global trade. So, what is it?
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There are lots of candidates that could change our world dramatically and on that scale. A widespread global bio-terrorism attack, a dirty bomb attack, the death of the dollar, and something along the lines of a 2+ month long modern equivalent to the Cuban Missile Crisis.
We've also kicked around the idea that we could have a market melt up in the September 3-19th window, and then a 72-day crash. But, linguistically, that doesn't fit well. The reason being that a crash would be an emotional release kind of event, but the 73-days has a pretty distinct emotional build flavor to it.
