Ukrainian people are in for a rude awakening – Welcome to the West!

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Offline Letsbereal

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Gazprom Stuck With Record Tax Bill on Unpaid Ukraine Gas
« Reply #80 on: July 11, 2014, 09:29:47 AM »
Gazprom Stuck With Record Tax Bill on Unpaid Ukraine Gas
11 July 2014
, by Elena Mazneva (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-07-11/gazprom-stuck-with-1-8-billion-tax-bill-after-ukraine-defaults.html

OAO Gazprom, Russia’s biggest company, was stuck with record export duty payments in May as Ukraine imported more gas without paying for it.

Gazprom paid 61.9 billion rubles ($1.8 billion) on all its exports, data on the Treasury’s website show, almost 60% more than the same month in 2013.

Most of the surplus stemmed from deliveries to NAK Naftogaz Ukrainy, a government official said, asking not to be identified because the information isn’t public.

Ukraine imported more gas in May to fill storage tanks as Russia raised prices in the wake of President Vladimir Putin’s decision to annex Crimea.

Ukraine refused to pay for the gas, so the company had to find the tax from its own resources. Gazprom halted supplies to Naftogaz in June.

“Ukraine taxes cut Gazprom cash flow,” Ildar Davletshin, an oil and gas analyst at Renaissance Capital in Moscow, said in an interview.

“The company had to pay them despite Ukraine non-payment.”

Shares in Gazprom fell 1.1% to 147.11 rubles at 4:48 p.m. in Moscow trading.

Ukraine owes Gazprom $5.3 billion for the past deliveries, the gas exporter said this week.

Naftogaz won’t pay unless Russia sets a new, fair price, according to the Ukrainian company.

In April, Russia canceled two gas discounts it had granted to Ukraine, raising the price to $485 per 1,000 cubic meter from $268.50 in the first quarter.

Gazprom withdrew the lower price offered to Naftogaz in December citing debts, and Russia restored an export duty.

Energy Ministry

That duty had been cut in 2010 under an agreement where Ukraine agreed to extend Russia’s lease to the Black Sea Fleet base in Crimea in exchange for cheaper gas.

After Putin declared Crimea part of Russia, the government in Moscow said a lease was no longer needed.

Since April, Gazprom supplied about 7.74 billion cubic meters of gas to Ukraine before halting shipments on June 16, Bloomberg calculations based on data from the Russian Energy Ministry’s CDU TEK unit show.

That’s $1.13 billion of export duty given the current fuel price, which Ukraine rejects, and a normal 30% tax rate, according to Bloomberg calculations.

If Russia hadn’t restored the full duty on exports to Ukraine in April the rate would be $45.5 per 1,000 cubic meters versus current $145.5, the government official said.

That equates to an extra $775 million of tax payments.

Gazprom has asked the government for help with the tax because the neighboring country hasn’t been paying for gas, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said in May.

No decision was made on helping Gazprom, and the Moscow-based company had to pay full duties in the meantime, the government official said.

The increase in May payments was a one-off situation, according to the official.

As well as higher prices, the figure was inflated by the fact that Ukraine boosted imports to fill underground storage facilities.

Export-duty payments decreased to about 32 billion rubles last month, when Russia stopped supplying gas to Ukraine, according to the official.
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Offline Letsbereal

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Re: Ukrainian people are in for a rude awakening – Welcome to the West!
« Reply #81 on: July 25, 2014, 08:26:49 PM »
Collapse of Ukraine Government: Prime Minister Yatsenyuk Resigns amidst Pressures Exerted by the IMF
24 July 2014
, by Prof Michel Chossudovsky (Global Research)
http://www.globalresearch.ca/collapse-of-ukraine-government-prime-minister-yatsenyuk-resigns-amidst-pressures-exerted-by-the-imf/5393168

Ukraine’s Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk announced his resignation in the Rada (Parliament) and that of the entire Cabinet on Thursday, July 24. 

This decision was taken following the withdrawal of two parties from the coalition government and the non-adoption of two important pieces of legislation, which had been demanded by the International Monetary Fund (IMF)
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Offline Letsbereal

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Company In Which Joe Biden's Son Is Director Prepares To Drill Shale Gas In East Ukraine
25 july 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-25/company-which-joe-bidens-son-director-prepares-drill-shale-gas-east-ukraine
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Offline Letsbereal

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Is Europe’s Breadbasket Up for Grabs?
30 July 2014
, by Kanya D'Almeida - New York (IPS)
http://www.ipsnews.net/2014/07/is-europes-breadbasket-up-for-grabs/

Amidst an exodus of some 100,000 people from the conflict-torn eastern Ukraine, ongoing fighting in the urban strongholds of Donetsk and Luhansk between Ukrainian soldiers and separatist rebels, and talk of more sanctions against Russia, it is hard to focus on the more subtle changes taking place in this eastern European nation.

But while global attention has been channeled towards the political crisis, sweeping economic reforms are being ushered in under the leadership of the newly elected president Petro Poroshenko, who recently brokered deals with the World Bank and International Monetary Fund that have rights groups on edge.

Even before Poroshenko assumed office on Jun. 7, international financial institutions (IFIs) were rushing emergency missions into the country, with IMF European Department Director Reza Moghadam declaring on a Mar. 7 visit, “I am positively impressed with authorities’ determination, sense of responsibility and commitment to an agenda of economic reform.”

After years of dangling a 17-billion-dollar loan – withheld in part due to ousted President Viktor Yanukovych’s refusal to implement a highly contested pension reform bill that would have raised the retirement age by 10 years, and his insistence on curbing gas price hikes – the IMF has now released its purse strings.

The World Bank followed suit, announcing a 3.5-billion-dollar aid package on May 22 that the Bank’s president, Jim Yong Kim, said was conditional upon the government “removing restrictions that hinder competition and […] limiting the role of state control in economic activities.”

While these reforms include calls for greater transparency to spur economic growth, experts are concerned that Ukraine’s rapid pivot to Western neoliberal policies could spell disaster, particularly in the immense agricultural sector that is widely considered the ‘breadbasket of Europe.’

A quiet land-grab

Ukraine is the world’s third-largest exporter of cotton and the fifth-largest exporter of wheat.

Agriculture accounts for about 10% of GDP, with vast fields of fertile soil yielding bumper harvests of grain and cereals each year.

According to a 2013 forecast by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Ukraine is poised to become the world’s second biggest grain exporter in the world (after the U.S.), shipping over 30 million tonnes of grain out of the country last year.

The World Bank estimates that farmers and agricultural workers made up 17% of the country’s labour force as of 2012.

And according to the Centre for Eastern Studies, agricultural exports soared in the last decade, from $4.3 billion in 2005 to $17.9 billion in 2012.

Lush soil and a rich agrarian culture do not immediately add up to nationwide dividends.

Potential investors have cited“red tape” and “corruption” as hindrances to development, as well as a communist legacy that forbids the sale of land.

But the past decade has seen an abrupt change in Ukraine’s agricultural sector, with foreign investors and agri-business hugely expanding ownership and influence in the country.

According to a report released Monday by the U.S.-based Oakland Institute, over 1.6 million hectares of land have been signed over to multinational companies since 2002, including “over 405,000 hectares to a company listed in Luxembourg, 444,800 hectares to Cyprus-registered investors, 120,000 hectares to a French corporation, and 250,000 hectares to a Russian company.”

A deal brokered between China and Yanukovych prior to the political crisis – now disputed under the present regime – granted Beijing control over some three million hectares of prime farmland in the east, an area about the size of Belgium that totals 5% of Ukraine’s arable land.

This changing climate has been a boon for investors and corporations, with Michael Cox, research director at the investment bank Piper Jaffray, referring to Ukraine as one of the “most promising growth markets for farm-equipment giant Deere, as well as seed producers Monsanto and DuPont.”

Such statements have raised a red flag among researchers and trade watchdogs.

OI Executive Director Anuradha Mital told IPS, “IFIs are imposing Structural Adjustment Programmes (SAPs) in Ukraine, which we know – from the experience of the Third World – will undoubtedly lead to severe austerity measures for the people and increase poverty among the Ukrainians.”

“Ukraine is also one of the 10 pilot countries in the World Bank’s new Benchmarking the Business of Agriculture (BBA) project,” Mittal told IPS, referring to a brand new initiative, still in the development stage, which is connected to the Bank’s controversial Doing Business rankings.

This index has been criticised by numerous groups including the International Trade Union Confederation (ITUC) – comprised of over 176 million members hailing from 161 countries – for favouring low taxes for transnational corporations and lowering labour standards in developing countries as a means of attracting foreign investment.

The Bank itself says the BBA will largely serve as a tool for improving agricultural output. “The world needs to feed nine billion people by 2050,” a World Bank spokesperson told IPS.

“For small-scale farmers to be more productive and far more competitive, they need access to land, finance, improved seed, fertiliser, water, electricity, transport and markets.

“By identifying and monitoring policies and regulations that limit access of smaller producers to these critical components of success, BBA is being designed as a tool to foster an enabling environment that boosts local and regional agribusinesses,” she concluded.

David Sedik, senior policy officer at the Food and Agriculture Organisation’s (FAO) regional office for Europe and Central Asia, believes such an initiative is sorely needed in Ukraine, where “the primary beneficiaries of subsidies granted by the agricultural VAT system are… large agri-holding companies, the overwhelming majority of which are Ukrainian.”

“The list of needed reforms is quite long, and could start with building a more transparent land market,” he told IPS. “A first step in this direction could be the lifting of the moratorium on land sales.”

“The BBA project seems to support the construction of a transparent and inclusive system of agricultural regulation, something Ukraine lacks,” Sedik added.

But the OI report’s co-author Frédéric Mousseau says initiatives like the BBA and others exist primarily to pry open Ukraine’s doors, hitherto sealed by its socialist traditions, to foreign capital.

“These reforms sound good on paper, but when you look more closely you see they are actually designed to benefit large multinational corporations over workers and small-scale farmers,” Mousseau told IPS.

“Ranking systems like the BBA push for contract farming, which entails farmers working for corporations, instead of as subsistence producers.

We are denouncing this rhetoric, and its attendant struggle between different foreign interests over Ukraine’s resources.”

Research into the impacts of the Bank’s ‘Doing Business’ rankings in eight countries – including Mali, Sierra Leone, Sri Lanka and the Philippines – has yielded similar results: sharp increases in foreign investments and land-grabbing in a bid to appear more ‘business friendly’.

Further, Mousseau said, arrangements such as the Association Agreement between the European Union and Ukraine offer glimpses into an agricultural future steered by corporate interests.

“Until now, Ukraine had banned the use of GMOs in the agriculture sector,” Mousseau stated.

“So when we anaylsed the EU Association Agreement we were surprised by article 404, which states very clearly that both parties agree to expand the use of biotechnologies.”

Such clauses, experts say, could strengthen existing initiatives such as Monsanto’s Ukraine-based ‘Grain-basket of the Future’ project (which offers 25,000-dollar loans to rural farmers) and Cargill’s 200-million-dollar stake in UkrLandFarming, the eighth largest land cultivator in the world.

These developments give weight to the title of OI’s report, ‘Walking on the West Side’, a reference to the role of Western interests in Ukraine’s unfolding political crisis.

“It is necessary to see this in context of the U.S.– Russia struggle over Ukraine,” Joel Kovel, U.S. scholar and author of over 20 books on international politics, told IPS.

“Geostrategic politics and neoliberal economics fit together within the overall plan …in which global finance capital under American control and neoconservative leadership imposes austerity, seeks dominion over the easternmost portion of Europe, and continues the policy of encircling Russia,” he stated.
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Offline Letsbereal

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Re: Ukrainian people are in for a rude awakening – Welcome to the West!
« Reply #84 on: August 19, 2014, 02:47:47 PM »
Ukraine’s Next Crisis? Economic Disaster
19 August 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-19/ukraine%E2%80%99s-next-crisis-economic-disaster
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Offline Letsbereal

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Ukraine Gets $1.4 Billion From IMF as Fighting Intensifies
« Reply #85 on: August 30, 2014, 09:35:03 AM »
Ukraine Gets $1.4 Billion From IMF as Fighting Intensifies
29 August 2014
, by Sandrine Rastello and Kasia Klimasinska (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-08-29/ukraine-gets-1-4-billion-from-imf-as-fighting-intensifies.html

The International Monetary Fund agreed to disburse $1.4 billion to Ukraine under a loan program whose success is threatened by the country’s intensifying conflict against separatists tied to Russia.

The fund said the total amount of the loan remains unchanged at $17 billion and the program is progressing despite the volatile political situation.

The money released today will bring total disbursements under the arrangement to about $4.51 billion, the fund said in an e-mailed statement after completing the first review of the deal.

“Downside risks to the program remain very high,” IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said.

“The program success hinges on a timely resolution of the conflict in the East, as well as on the authorities’ strong policy performance and adherence to the planned reforms.”

The Washington-based fund four months ago approved the loan to aid an economy battered by deadly anti-government street protests, Russia’s annexation of Crimea and a pro-Russian insurgency in the nation’s eastern industrial heartland.

The conflict has intensified since, and both the IMF and the government see the economy contracting more than the 5% forecast earlier this year, making it more difficult for Ukraine to meet some of the IMF program targets in the short term.

“To compensate for these deviations, the authorities have committed to a strong policy package,” Lagarde said today.

Ukraine Commitments

Ukraine will take actions to accumulate international reserves, tighten fiscal policy in 2015 and 2016 more than previously agreed and step up efforts to put state energy company NAK Naftogaz Ukrainy “on a sound financial footing by improving bill collections and adjusting energy prices as needed,” she said.

Fighting in Ukraine’s easternmost regions, which the United Nations says has claimed more than 2,000 lives in the past five months, is expanding both in terms of numbers and area.

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko yesterday pledged to step up the country’s defenses against what he earlier called a “de facto” Russian incursion after separatists gained ground in intensified fighting.
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Offline Letsbereal

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Russia Warns Cold May Force Ukraine to Siphon Off EU Gas
« Reply #86 on: August 30, 2014, 09:39:38 AM »
Russia Warns Cold May Force Ukraine to Siphon Off EU Gas
29 August 2014
, by Elena Mazneva and Ewa Krukowska (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-08-29/russia-warns-cold-may-force-ukraine-to-siphon-off-eu-gas.html

Excerpt:

Russia warned Europe in a meeting of energy chiefs today it risks having natural-gas supplies siphoned off by Ukraine this winter if the former Soviet allies can’t resolve a payment dispute that’s been brewing all summer.


Ukraine has to start paying its bills immediately so Russia can resume shipments in time to add the 10 billion cubic meters to underground storage needed for the smaller country to get through the winter, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said in Moscow today after a meeting with European Union Energy Commissioner Guenther Oettinger.

The gas storage situation in Ukraine is now “critical,” Novak said.

Russia cut off flows to Ukraine in June citing unpaid bills, and the EU, which depends on supplies via Ukraine to meet about 15% of its demand, has been trying to broker a deal to get them resumed.

Russia wants Ukraine to settle part of its debt and pay advance installments before it will restart shipments, OAO Gazprom Chief Executive Officer Alexey Miller told reporters after the talks.

“We clarified a number of issues,” Oettinger said after the meeting with Novak.

They relate to “what can be done in the remaining weeks until mid or late October to take the necessary precautions to build up enough reserves, enough gas storage to last through a long, cold winter.”
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Offline Letsbereal

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IMF approves bailout payment to Ukraine
« Reply #87 on: September 01, 2014, 02:07:16 PM »
IMF approves bailout payment to Ukraine
31 August 2014
, by William Mauldin (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/imf-approves-bailout-payment-to-ukraine-2014-08-31

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Offline Letsbereal

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Ukraine to Need Another $19 Billion from the IMF
« Reply #88 on: September 03, 2014, 11:33:00 AM »
Ukraine to Need Another $19 Billion from the IMF
2 September 2014
, by Mike Shedlock (MISH'S Global Economic Trend Analysis)
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.de/2014/09/ukraine-to-need-another-19-billion-from.html

Ukraine is already on the hook to the IMF to the tune of $16.7 billion. Today the IMF reassessed: Ukraine Crisis Hits Economy and Could Require Bigger loan.


In its first full review since agreeing a $16.7bn standby facility earlier this year, the IMF warned that the two main risks it had foreseen – intensification of the conflict in the east and a natural gas shut-off by Russia – had materialised.

If fighting continued in eastern Ukraine at the same level throughout 2015, it added, Ukraine would need additional financing of $19bn to shore up its central bank reserves.

“I am afraid that this should be the IMF’s base case. The original IMF programme was built on totally unrealistic assumptions,” said Tim Ash, economist at Standard Bank, in a note to clients.

“The main question being asked by investors is when, not if, Ukraine will be forced to restructure/reprofile its debt ratios.”

Under its base case, it forecast Ukraine’s economy would contract 6.5% this year – making it one of the worst performers in the world – rather than the 5% previously assumed.

Growth next year would be only 1%, down from 2% previously forecast, even if the fighting stopped soon.

If fighting continued through the rest of this year and 2015, however, the economy would contract by 7.3% this year and another 4.2% next year.

Many experts had warned when the IMF-led bailout was agreed that it was based on the most optimistic assumptions, with western political leaders anxious to support the new government in Kiev.

But the fund conceded that Ukraine now faced “heightened geopolitical tensions and deepening economic crisis”.

“Intensification of the conflict in the east and escalation of the gas dispute with Gazprom, two of the key risks identified at the time of the programme request, have materialised,” it added.

These had affected “confidence, balance of payment flows, economic activity and budget execution” and had led to larger-than-anticipated deposit outflows and bigger depreciation of the national currency, the hryvnia.


Inquiring minds may be wondering how Ukraine can possibly pay this back.

The answer is they can't and won't. Alternatively Ukraine will be in an economic depression for decades if they try.
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Offline Letsbereal

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Ukraine Buys Coal From South Africa After Mines Ruined
« Reply #89 on: September 03, 2014, 09:41:46 PM »
Ukraine Buys Coal From South Africa After Mines Ruined
3 September 2014
, by Kateryna Choursina (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-09-03/ukraine-buys-coal-from-south-africa-after-mines-ruined.html
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Offline Letsbereal

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Ukraine Gas Chief Takes on Gazprom in Race With Winter
« Reply #90 on: September 05, 2014, 06:29:32 AM »
Ukraine Gas Chief Takes on Gazprom in Race With Winter
5 September 2014
, by Ladka Bauerova (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-09-04/ukraine-gas-chief-takes-on-russia-s-gazprom-in-race-with-winter.html

Excerpt:

Andriy Kobolyev, 36, faces the daunting task of keeping Ukraine warm this winter.

With tensions rising daily between Russia and Ukraine, Kobolyev, chief executive officer of Ukraine’s state gas company Naftogaz, must try to negotiate a continued flow of gas from its Russian supplier OAO Gazprom (OGZD), weed out graft and corruption, and find alternative supplies from the European Union.

Perhaps most painfully, he may have to raise energy prices for Ukrainian consumers.

“This winter is going to be very difficult,” said Kobolyev after traveling to Slovakia to ceremonially start the first flows of gas from the EU into Ukraine.

There is little time left for Ukraine to prepare for the winter months as its troops fight a pro-Russian insurrection in the eastern provinces.

Russia, which normally supplies more than half of Ukraine’s annual gas consumption, cut deliveries on June 16 after a dispute about prices and unpaid debt.

“Kobolyev has been tasked with an extremely difficult mission that even one of Ukraine’s most experienced negotiators, who had led the country through previous gas wars with Russia, would find daunting,” said Emily Stromquist, a Eurasia analyst in London.

“If supply disruptions continue than a slowdown in industry and blackouts seem all but inevitable.”


It was thanks to Kobolyev’s no-nonsense business approach that the talks on reverse gas flow, which had stalled under former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, finally succeeded, according to Tomas Marecek, the chief executive officer of Slovak gas pipeline operator Eustream AS.
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Offline Letsbereal

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Ukraine, Separatists Agree On Cease-Fire; EU May Suspend Sanctions
« Reply #91 on: September 06, 2014, 04:22:06 AM »
Ukraine, Separatists Agree On Cease-Fire; EU May Suspend Sanctions
5 September 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-05/ukraine-separatists-agree-cease-fire-eu-may-suspend-sanctions
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Offline Letsbereal

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Joaquin: Time for Plan B: The Push to Create a Failed State in the Ukraine
« Reply #92 on: September 09, 2014, 11:43:08 PM »
Joaquin Flores -- Time for Plan B: The Push to Create a Failed State in the Ukraine https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dq_ZaTNe-34

9 September 2014, TimeMonkRadioNetwork


Putin could have gone early in the Ukraine, would have saved a lot of blood in the streets but didn't do that. We also must not forget that Russia would have been seen as aggressor while no human blood was wasted yet mind you. Russia would have lost the opinion war especially in the West-Ukraine.

Instead a bloody civil war broke out between West and East Ukraine. West-Ukraine learned now what it means to live under Langley's fascist yoke backed by the the EU and the IMF. This leaves more room for Putin acceptance for ending the war and reinstating order.

West-Ukraine can have it's elections anyways and probably more reliable under the Russians than under Langley's unelected mafia boss Poroshenko. So Langley must go as does NATO. West-Ukraine is not self governing by any means now but has been take over by a bunch of fascistic street thugs backed by the West.
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Offline Letsbereal

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Ukraine Says Gas Output Growth Limited After Crimea Loss
« Reply #93 on: September 10, 2014, 04:16:05 PM »
Ukraine Says Gas Output Growth Limited After Crimea Loss
10 September 2014
, by Daryna Krasnolutska and Anna Shiryaevskaya (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-09-10/ukraine-says-gas-output-growth-limited-after-crimea-loss.html

Ukraine will fail to increase domestic natural gas production this year to cut its dependence on Russia after its eastern neighbor annexed Crimea, the Black Sea peninsula that has boosted gas output.

Gas production in Ukraine, which is dependent on imports for most of its needs, remains at the same level as last year and no increases are expected after the country lost its Black Sea offshore deposits to Russia, Ukraine’s Energy Minister Yuri Prodan said today in Kiev.

Moscow-based OAO Gazprom, the main supplier of gas to Ukraine, halted supplies to Ukraine in June after raising prices by 81% after the Kremlin-backed president was toppled in winter protests.

President Vladimir Putin annexed Crimea, a predominantly Russian-speaking region, in March, sparking a larger political crisis with Ukraine and its allies, the European Union and the U.S.

Crimea received gas from mainland Ukraine until it boosted its own output to about 1.7 billion cubic meters (60 billion cubic feet) last year from 1.2 billion cubic meters,

Alexey Grivach, the deputy director of Russia’s National Energy Security Fund, said today by phone.

“That allowed Crimea to meet its own demand but didn’t mean much for the country as a whole,” he said.

“Crimea has the potential for growth but it will be quite modest in the next few years. Increasing production substantially would require investments and infrastructure.”

Ukraine’s gas production increased 1.5% to 9.8 billion cubic meters in the first half of the year, while demand fell 13.5% to 24.6 billion cubic meters, according to Energy Ministry data.

The country is sourcing fuel from the EU and is ready for gas talks with Russia on supplies at any time, Prodan said today.

Ukraine largely relies on the Black Sea and Azov Sea for future oil and gas production and has in the past decade sought to attract foreign investors to explore the offshore deposits.

Forecast resources in the two areas are estimated at 1.9 billion tons of oil equivalent, according to the website of state-run energy company NAK Naftogaz Ukrainy.
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Offline Letsbereal

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Re: Ukrainian people are in for a rude awakening – Welcome to the West!
« Reply #94 on: September 12, 2014, 10:16:03 AM »
Russia threatens import tariffs on Ukrainian goods if EU agreement-reports
12 September 2014
, Moscow (Reuters)
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/09/12/uk-ukraine-crisis-imports-ulyukayev-idUKKBN0H71J120140912

Russia will introduce import tariffs on Ukrainian goods if Kiev proceeds with its association agreement with the European Union as of Nov. 1, local news agencies cited Economy Minister Alexei Ulyukayev as saying on Friday.

Ulyukayev also said Moscow did not want to respond to western sanctions with retaliatory measures.

"We would not want to talk about some kind of a response (to sanctions), but we keep that in mind," Interfax news agency cited Ulyukayev as saying.
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Offline Letsbereal

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Ukraine economy battered; fighting resumes in East
« Reply #95 on: September 13, 2014, 10:48:25 PM »
Ukraine economy battered; fighting resumes in East
13 September 2014
, by Paul Sonne - Kiev (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ukraine-economy-battered-fighting-resumes-in-east-2014-09-13

Ukraine’s economy could shrink by as much as 10% by year-end, the head of the Ukrainian central bank warned on Saturday.

The dour economic outlook came as the Ukrainian military said fighting with pro-Russia rebels had erupted again in the country’s east, despite the continued shaky cease fire.

And a Russian convoy carrying what Moscow said was humanitarian aid entered Ukrainian territory without Kiev’s permission and traveled to the rebel stronghold of Luhansk, where weeks of fighting have left residents without water and electricity.

Russian vehicles began crossing the border late on Friday night and continued into Saturday, according to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, which said 220 vehicles, including 193 cargo trucks, entered rebel-held territory.

Valeria Gontareva, head of the National Bank of Ukraine, said the embattled country’s annual GDP is contracting this year.

“I think it will be minus 9% or even minus 10%,” Gontareva was cited in news reports as saying.

Ukraine’s economy grew an estimated 0.4% last year, according to U.S. Central Intelligence Agency’s World Factbook,

Gontareva also was quoted as predicting a 35% drop in exports from Ukraine to Russia for the year. But she ruled out the possibility of debt default, the reports said.

The forecasts came as the central command center for Ukraine’s military campaign against pro-Russia rebels said fighting continued in the east, despite a cease fire agreed early this month.

The command center accused pro-Russia rebels of striking Ukrainian positions at the Donetsk airport and in the town of Debaltsevo with mortar fire Saturday morning.

It also said pro-Russia militants were conducting intense shelling of three other towns.
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Offline Letsbereal

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Re: Ukrainian people are in for a rude awakening – Welcome to the West!
« Reply #96 on: September 15, 2014, 06:06:00 PM »
Ukraine President's Days Numbered After Broad Accusations Of "Betraying National Interests"
15 September 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-15/ukraine-presidents-days-numbered-after-broad-accusations-betraying-national-interest
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Ukraine Currency Crashes To Record Low As IMF Blasts "Gross Abuses"
« Reply #97 on: September 16, 2014, 07:44:06 PM »
Ukraine Currency Crashes To Record Low As IMF Blasts "Gross Abuses"
16 September 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-16/ukraine-currency-crashes-record-low-imf-blasts-gross-abuses
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Russia warns Ukraine over 'historic deal' with the EU
« Reply #98 on: September 17, 2014, 02:01:59 AM »
Russia warns Ukraine over 'historic deal' with the EU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZG9naVK8iy8

16 September 2014, euronews


Disgusting these bunch of murdering fascists.
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Re: Ukrainian people are in for a rude awakening – Welcome to the West!
« Reply #99 on: September 18, 2014, 03:25:43 AM »
May I Borrow Your Shower? Ukraine Braces for Winter Cold
17 September 2014
, by Ladka Bauerova and Kateryna Choursina (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-09-17/may-i-borrow-your-shower-ukraine-braces-for-winter-cold.html

Since Kiev’s authorities started turning off communal hot water supplies last month to save natural gas, people with their own boilers have found unwashed friends on the doorstep armed with a towel and a bar of soap.

Yulia Mikulska, an accountant from the Ukrainian capital, had gone weeks without a hot shower before she visited her brother’s summer house, which is fitted with an electric water heater.

“I finally got to wash myself like a human being!” the elegant 38-year-old said.

Ukrainians are resorting to “wash visits” along with school closures and DIY insulation as the nation of 45 million braces for a winter without enough gas.

Authorities, already fighting an insurgency in the east, are scrambling to build stockpiles in a country where temperatures can drop to 20 below zero Celsius (-4 degrees Fahrenheit) after Russia, the main supplier, stopped shipments in June.

Gas storage is now about half-full at 16.3 billion cubic meters, according to data from the state-run energy company NAK Naftogaz Ukrainy.

Even combined with Naftogaz’s domestic production, that’s not enough to cover the country’s needs during the coldest months.

Kievenergo, which provides heat for the capital, said it may delay supplying customers until the start of November, when average temperatures are near zero, and stop at the end of March.

By providing heat for one month less than usual, it will save 5.5 million cubic meters of gas a day.

Colder Houses

Homes will have to be kept cooler, with the thermostat set at 19 degrees Celsius, 5 degrees lower than usual, according to Naftogaz Chief Executive Officer Andriy Kobolyev.

Authorities have also warned of power cuts.

Ukraine had been importing more than half its gas from Russia until June, when OAO Gazprom cut supplies over a price dispute.

The Russian exporter says Naftogaz owes it $5.3 billion and must settle part of the debt and pay advance installments before it will restart deliveries.

Ukraine says the sum is too high after Russia raised the price by 81% in April.

The European Union has been attempting to broker an agreement since May.

Three-way talks in Berlin are tentatively planned for next week.

The U.S. and EU this month said they would deepen sanctions against Moscow for backing rebels in eastern Ukraine with weapons and troops, an allegation Russia denies.

Russia shouldn’t use the gas dispute as “blackmail,” EU Energy Commissioner Guenther Oettinger said last month.

Laptops for Boilers

In the western Ukrainian city of Lviv, schools will likely close during the coldest months because there’s not enough fuel to heat them.

The city has introduced a 6-day week and cancelled vacations in October and March to make up the time.

Oleksandr Poltoratskyi, director of an elementary school with 700 pupils in Kiev, decided to forgo a plan to buy laptops and spent the money on a boiler instead.

“That way we’ll be sure to have hot water for the kids, even if there’s rationing,” he said.

Naftogaz’s Kobolyev advised households to revert to frugal practices from Soviet times.

They should glue strips of paper to the inside of window frames to keep warm air in, he told weekly newspaper Dzerkalo Tyzhnya.

Kharkiv city council has called on residents to volunteer to help insulate apartment buildings, and pay for the repairs out of their own pockets.

Mikulska, the accountant who showered at her brother’s place, said that installing a boiler is too expensive so she’s been heating up water in electric tea kettle to wash herself and her 9-year-old daughter.

She managed to color her hair using a kettle to rinse out the dye. If there’s a power cut, she says she won’t have any heat at all.

“Imagine washing your child if there’s no heating,” she said. “Now that there’s some sun we can dry things, but later, if our heaters are cold, what are we going to do?”
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Offline Letsbereal

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Ukraine Introduces Capital Controls
« Reply #100 on: September 22, 2014, 07:06:49 PM »
Ukraine Introduces Capital Controls
22 September 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-22/ukraine-introduces-capital-controls
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Ukraine doing all not to repay $3 billion bond - Russia finance minister
« Reply #101 on: September 26, 2014, 05:21:37 AM »
Ukraine doing all not to repay $3 billion bond - Russia finance minister
25 September 2014
, by Lidia Kelly - Moscow (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/25/us-ukraine-crisis-russia-eurobonds-idUSKCN0HK29120140925

Ukraine is doing everything it can to either declare its $3 billion bailout bond held by Moscow invalid or to not repay its debts, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov told Reuters on Thursday.

Russia bought $3 billion worth of Ukraine's Eurobonds in December, before relations between the two plunged to new lows when Ukraine's pro-Russian president was toppled.

Since then Moscow has annexed Ukraine's Crimea region and pro-Russian rebels have fought Ukrainian forces in eastern Ukraine.

On Thursday, Ukraine's security service opened a criminal probe into former Finance Minister Yuriy Kolobov over the Russian bailout, saying Kolobov - among others - had abused his office and violated the budget law by organizing the bond sale.

"It seems that the main reason behind the case, behind the hype around it, is that Ukraine sees that it violated one of the loan conditions and wants to do everything to declare this loan either invalid or to find reasons not to repay its debts," Siluanov told Reuters by phone.

He added that the Finance Ministry will wait for Ukraine's official statistics for the overall debt of government level for the first three quarters before deciding whether to ask Kiev for an early repayment of the bond.

Ukrainian officials were not immediately available to react to Siluanov's comments.

One of the conditions of the bailout program stipulates that the "total state debt and state-guaranteed debt should not at any time exceed an amount equal to 60% of the annual nominal gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine".

Siluanov said that because of the hryvnia's devaluation, the threshold has already been crossed. The International Monetary Fund predicts that debt-to-GDP will top 67% by end-2014.

A recent selloff on Ukraine's dollar debt has focused attention on the controversial $3 billion bond, raising investor concerns that President Vladimir Putin could use the issue to trigger a cascade of defaults across Kiev's sovereign Eurobonds.

"Based on unofficial - and I repeat, unofficial data - this debt level has already been crossed," Siluanov said. So, he said, there is every reason for Russia to be able to claim the early repayment of this debt.

"We will wait for the official statistics, then we will decide on our course of action." He added that Ukraine has been servicing the debt, so it considers the debt valid.

In early June, Kiev made a $73.3 million coupon payment on the Eurobond.  Siluanov said he regretted the souring in relations between Moscow and Kiev.

"We would like to have an honest conversation with our neighbors and we will communicate on this subject regarding all repercussions and further investigation of the case," Siluanov said.
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Hungary suspends gas shipments to Ukraine
« Reply #102 on: September 26, 2014, 07:00:22 AM »
Hungary suspends gas shipments to Ukraine
26 September 2014
, by Interfax-Ukraine - London (Kyivpost)
https://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/hungary-suspends-gas-shipments-to-ukraine-366030.html

Hungary's gas operator FGSZ Ltd. has suspended shipments of gas to Ukraine for an indefinite period of time, the company said in a statement.


Hungary halts flow of gas to Ukraine
26 September 2014
, by Neil Buckley (The Financial Times)
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7c5d2bf0-4552-11e4-ab86-00144feabdc0.html

Hungary has stopped supplying gas to Ukraine through a “reverse flow” pipeline just days after the head of Russia’s Gazprom monopoly visited Budapest, Ukraine’s gas utility said.

Naftogaz, the Ukrainian distributor, said Hungary had stopped transporting gas at 19.00 Ukrainian time on Thursday, notifying Kiev that it was halting supply “for technical reasons” until further notice.

It came after Alexei Miller, Gazprom chief executive, on Monday met Hungary’s premier Viktor Orbán, Naftogaz said.

The stoppage put further pressure on Ukraine and the EU ahead of trilateral talks with Russia in Berlin on Friday over restoring gas supplies to Ukraine after Gazprom suspended them because of a dispute over pricing and payment arrears.

Hungary, together with Slovakia and Poland, have been helping Kiev by re-exporting gas to Ukraine by reversing the flow in transit pipelines.

Poland and Slovakia have reported reductions in their supplies from Russia in recent weeks, apparently aimed at limiting their ability to re-export to Ukraine.

Gazprom has said it is continuing to supply contracted amounts of gas to west European countries, but was not fulfilling demands for “extra” volumes as it needed to fill storage facilities before the onset of winter.

Hungarian officials could not immediately be reached for comment.

But the country’s development ministry announced late on Thursday that it would increase gas imports from Friday to accelerate filling up its gas storage facilities ahead of winter, saying this was an “absolute priority”.

FGSZ, Hungary’s pipeline operator, said in a statement that gas system users had notified it of a “significant increase” in incoming gas deliveries.

It said it had to interrupt supplies to Ukraine “to enable all pipelines to be suited for inward transmission”.

The Hungarian operator said it had been delivering up to 16.8m cu m of gas per day to Ukraine, equivalent to up to 6.1bn cu m per year, since March 2013.

But it said capacity was not guaranteed and its ability to deliver depended on “prevailing technical and commercial conditions”.

Energy experts have warned that EU countries could face gas shortages this winter if Russia does not resume supplies to Ukraine, since volumes of gas in huge storage facilities in Ukraine are much lower than usual due to the summer cut-off.

Naftogaz said it had a supply contract with private companies in western Europe to supply gas to Ukraine via Hungary.

But on Thursday afternoon FGSZ stopped providing transit facilities to these companies.

“Naftogaz deeply regrets this decision of FGSZ and calls on its Hungarian partners to respect their contractual obligations and EU legislation,” the Ukrainian distributor said.

“Such a decision goes against the core principles of the EU single energy market”.

The EU’s gas commissioner, Günther Oettinger, who is taking part in the Berlin talks on Friday, called earlier this week for Russia and Ukraine to sign an interim gas agreement for the winter to prevent supply disruptions.

He said the agreement should include an interim price for a specified volume of gas, while the two countries continued to try to resolve their differences on pricing and arrears through arbitration.


Ukraine since early September imports 800 million cubic meters of gas from Europe
26 September 2014
, by Interfax-Ukraine (Kyivpost)
https://www.kyivpost.com/content/business/ukraine-since-early-september-imports-800-million-cubic-metersof-gas-from-europe-366057.html

Ukraine in the period from Sept. 1 to Sept. 24, 2014 imported 798 million cubic meters of natural gas from Europe, the press service of public joint-stock company Ukrtransgaz reported on Friday, Sept. 26.
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PM Cries "Russia Wants Us To Freeze" As Locals Prepare For A Long, Cold Winter
« Reply #103 on: September 26, 2014, 08:36:31 PM »
Ukraine PM Cries "Russia Wants Us To Freeze" As Locals Prepare For A Long, Cold Winter
26 September 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-26/ukraine-pm-cries-russia-wants-us-freeze-locals-prepare-long-cold-winter
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War Severs Ukraine’s Industrial Arteries as Economy Sinks
« Reply #104 on: October 02, 2014, 06:14:18 AM »
War Severs Ukraine’s Industrial Arteries as Economy Sinks
2 October 2014
, by Agnes Lovasz and Daryna Krasnolutska (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-10-01/war-severs-ukraine-s-industrial-arteries-as-economy-sinks.html

Excerpt:

The bloody conflict in Ukraine’s east is severing the arteries that connect the nation’s economy.

The effects are being felt hundreds of miles from the unrest in industries as different as electricity and food processing.

Power plants at the other end of the country are being starved of coal because of disruptions to mining, while in Kiev, one of Ukraine’s biggest poultry producers is looking abroad for incubatory eggs after output was halted at its facility near the war-ravaged city of Donetsk.

Months of fighting have left pro-Russian rebels in control of a swathe of Ukraine’s easternmost regions, which generated almost a quarter of industrial output at the start of the year.

The knock-on effects of idle factories are seeping through an economy at risk of a 10% contraction in 2014, according to Ukraine’s central bank.

The International Monetary Fund says $17 billion may not be enough to avert a default.

“Everything is interlinked and companies in the rest of Ukraine will suffer,” Liza Ermolenko, an analyst at London-based Capital Economics Ltd., said by e-mail.

“That’s on top of the indirect channels through which the conflict in the east affects the rest of the economy -- the currency, banks, inflation and confidence channels.”
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World Bank sees Ukraine economy shrinking 8% this year due to war
« Reply #105 on: October 02, 2014, 07:50:49 AM »
World Bank sees Ukraine economy shrinking 8 percent this year due to war
2 October 2014
, Kiev (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/02/us-ukraine-crisis-worldbank-idUSKCN0HR0UX20141002

Ukraine's economy is likely to shrink by 8% this year and contract again next year because of the effect of the separatist war in the industrialized east, the World Bank said on Thursday.

The bank had previously expected Ukraine's gross domestic product would contract by 5% this year and then grow 2.5% next year.

It now expects the economy to contract by 1% in 2015.

"Disruption in economic activity in the east has resulted in a sharper GDP decline. We project that GDP will be an 8% decline in 2014," Qimiao Fan, the World Bank's chief representative for Ukraine, told reporters.

The bank's forecast was the latest downbeat assessment for the economy because of the conflict which has hit steel, chemicals and coal output particularly hard in the eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

"The share of these two regions in GDP is about 16%," Fan said.

Donetsk and Luhansk accounted for about a quarter of industrial output, 7% of the agricultural sector and 27% of exports, he said.

Finance Minister Oleksander Shlapak said last month that the Kiev government expected GDP to shrink by 6% this year.

Ukraine's central has said the economy would shrink by as much as 10% this year, while the International Monetary Fund has predicted a 6.5% contraction.
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Gazprom Quarterly Net Rises 13%, Misses Estimate on Ukraine Debt
« Reply #106 on: October 14, 2014, 08:28:36 AM »
Gazprom Quarterly Net Rises 13%, Misses Estimate on Ukraine Debt
14 October 2014
, by Elena Mazneva and Jake Rudnitsky (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-10-14/gazprom-quarterly-net-rises-13-misses-estimate-on-ukraine-debt.html

OAO Gazprom said its second-quarter profit rose 13%, missing an analyst estimate as the world’s biggest natural gas producer increased a provision to cover Ukraine’s debt for fuel supplies.

Net income rose to 228 billion rubles ($5.6 billion) from 202 billion rubles a year earlier, as sales of oil products climbed, Russia’s biggest company said today on its website.

That missed the 266 billion rubles average estimate of 11 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

Gazprom, which supplies about 30 percent of the European Union’s gas, halted deliveries to Ukraine over a price and debt dispute in June as a separatist conflict flared in the country’s eastern regions.

The Moscow-based producer estimates it’s owed $5.3 billion and is demanding $3.1 billion of that be paid by the end of the year in talks, brokered by the EU, with Ukraine on resuming deliveries.

“We believe Gazprom’s shares are now driven by political rather than operating and financial developments,” VTB Capital said in an e-mailed note yesterday.

The Moscow-based company added 144.5 billion rubles in the second quarter to a provision for doubtful trade accounts receivable, primarily from Ukraine, affecting net income.

In August, Gazprom said its first-half profit under Russian accounting standards, which is used to calculate the dividend, fell 38% to 155 billion rubles, mainly because of Ukraine provisions.

The company may cut its payments to shareholders 10.7% to 6.43 rubles per share, according to a government forecast, published last month.
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Russia Won’t Accept Terms to End Sanctions Over Ukraine
« Reply #107 on: October 21, 2014, 12:53:12 AM »
Russia Won’t Accept Terms to End Sanctions Over Ukraine
20 October 2014
, by Volodymyr Verbyany, Daryna Krasnolutska and Birgit Jennen (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-10-19/ukraine-fighting-simmers-as-no-breakthrough-at-talks.html

Excerpt:

Russia’s partners, including overseas politicians and businessmen, understand that a policy designed to punish the country is doomed to failure, Lavrov said.

“We respond very simply: we shall not agree to any criteria or conditions,” Lavrov said. “Russia is doing more than anyone else to resolve the crisis in Ukraine.”


‘Too Far’


“On the question of sanctions, the main priority is implementing the peace plan of President Putin and President Poroshenko, the Minsk agreement,” Merkel said at a news conference in the Slovak capital, Bratislava.

“And here, we are unfortunately still too far away on many points of it to speak about a real implementation.”

Putin, whose nation pipes about 15% of the EU’s natural gas needs through Ukraine, said last week that supplies to Europe would be reduced if the Ukrainian government siphoned off fuel for its own use.

Gas Dispute

Ukraine will have gas for the winter after agreeing to pay $385 per thousand cubic meters of fuel from Russia until March 31, Poroshenko said.

The government may use loans from the International Monetary Fund or other financial organizations to pay for the purchases, he said.


The EU has been seeking to broker an interim deal between Putin and Poroshenko to avoid a repeat of supply cuts experienced in 2006 and 2009.

The next round of talks is scheduled to take place tomorrow.

Speaking today, Merkel said she wants the gas deal to be clinched and that a bridge loan for Ukraine may be needed to end the dispute.

Ukraine’s state energy company NAK Naftogaz Ukrainy said the government in Kiev and the European Commission reached a “consensus” before the trilateral talks slated for tomorrow in Brussels.

According to their joint position, the negotiations should produce an interim agreement for this winter, ensuring the supply of Russia’s gas to Ukraine and a stable flow of transit fuel to the EU, with guarantees on delivery by Moscow-based OAO Gazprom and on payments by Naftogaz.

‘Gradual Removal’

At a joint appearance with Merkel, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico said the successful implementation of the accord between Russia and Ukraine may pave the way for the easing of sanctions.

His country, along with former Soviet satellites including Hungary and the Czech Republic, has been critical of the trade restrictions for hurting their economies.

“If what has been agreed between the Russian and Ukrainian presidents is carried out, it could open a debate on the gradual removal of sanctions,” Fico said.
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Ukraine, Russia gas deal may be just enough to get through winter
« Reply #108 on: October 21, 2014, 12:57:25 AM »
Ukraine, Russia gas deal may be just enough to get through winter
20 October 2014
, by Henning Gloystein - London (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/20/us-ukraine-crisis-gas-idUSKCN0I916F20141020

An interim natural gas deal by Moscow and Kiev, reached over the weekend, could supply just enough to get Ukraine through the winter as long as the weather does not become unusually cold, Reuters research shows.

Russia, Ukraine and the European Commission moved towards an agreement in late September and made further progress at the weekend.

The deal is expected to be finalised at meetings between officials in Brussels on Tuesday.

Russia cut off gas supply to Ukraine in mid-June following more than two years of disagreement over the price and after relations between the two countries deteriorated over Moscow's annexation of Crimea and fighting in the east of Ukraine.

Not all details of the agreement are known, but below is a summary of the main points.

VOLUME

Russia is likely to deliver 5 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas by the end of March, which should just be enough to meet demand.

Ukraine's annual gas use is typically around 50 bcm, although this figure varies depending on weather conditions and economic output.

Accessing all available sources, Ukraine is likely to have access to 42-53 bcm of gas to meet its annual demand.

Over half of its consumption is usually provided by Russia, and Moscow probably delivered 5 to 10 bcm between January and June this year before stopping supplies.

Ukraine's gas storage sites are currently filled to an average of 52.5%, equivalent to 16.8 bcm.

It also has domestic production, though the loss of gas-producing Crimea means its output will be much lower this year than its usual figure of over 20 bcm.

Analysts say 5-6 bcm could come from EU countries by the end of the year.

That brings Ukraine's accessible gas to 42-53 bcm, which should be enough to meet its annual demand, barring a spell of colder-than-usual winter temperatures or unforeseen supply outages.

PRICE AND DEBT PAYMENTS

Ukraine will pay $385 per 1000 cubic meters of gas for the winter period lasting until March 31, 2015.

The price for Russia's gas over the following summer period will fall to $325 per 1000 cubic meters.

That is roughly in line with what most western European utilities pay for imported gas from Russia.

Russia says that Ukraine owes it around $5 billion in unpaid bills for gas supplied at the end of 2013 and in 2014.

Kiev has said it will be prepared to repay Russia $2-$3 billion by the end of the year, if the remaining figure could be negotiated later.

Ukrainian state-run energy firm Naftogaz and Russian state-controlled gas firm Gazprom have both lodged cases with the Stockholm arbitration tribunal to review their gas transit contracts.

All debt payments, on which Russia has been insisting, will be made only after a verdict from the International Court of Arbitration in Stockholm.
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Russian Gas Deal Delayed as Ukraine Payments Unresolved
« Reply #109 on: October 22, 2014, 09:28:15 AM »
Russian Gas Deal Delayed as Ukraine Payments Unresolved
22 October 2014
, by Ewa Krukowska, Elena Mazneva and Daryna Krasnolutska (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-10-21/russian-gas-deal-delayed-as-ukraine-payments-unresolved.html

Excerpt:

Russia and Ukraine will seek a temporary deal next week to resolve a natural gas pricing dispute after failing to sign an accord in talks brokered by the European Union.

While negotiators agreed on debt repayment terms, the financial resources for advance payments for future deliveries still need to be discussed, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said yesterday.

Yuri Prodan, his Ukrainian counterpart, said the amount of gas supplied in the coming months has yet to be determined. The next round of talks is scheduled for Oct. 29.

The 28-nation EU, which depends on Russian gas piped across Ukraine for about 15 percent of its demand, is trying to broker a deal between the former Soviet allies as winter nears.

State-run OAO Gazprom (OGZD), Ukraine’s main gas supplier, halted deliveries in June as a separatist conflict raged in the east of the country.

While shipments to Europe haven’t been disrupted, the EU is seeking to avoid a repeat of supply cuts experienced during 2006 and 2009 disagreements.

“Everyone’s got some homework to do and we decided we’ll meet next Wednesday having prepared everything for a decision on that day,” EU Energy Commissioner Guenther Oettinger said yesterday in Brussels.

“Now we have some prospects of a secure supply situation this winter for all European citizens.”
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The Ukrainian economy will shrink 8%
« Reply #110 on: October 22, 2014, 10:51:13 AM »
Ukraine Election Carries Peril for Dollar Bondholders
22 October 2014
, by Krystof Chamonikolas, Marton Eder and Daryna Krasnolutska (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-10-22/ukraine-election-carries-peril-for-dollar-bondholders.html

The International Monetary Fund is keeping the nation afloat with bailout loans on the condition Ukraine will push on with budget-austerity measures and steps to overhaul ailing banks.

The nation will need more loans from international lenders than the current $17 billion package, IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said on Oct. 9.

A week earlier, the World Bank estimated the Ukrainian economy will shrink 8%.


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Eastern Europe Shivers Thinking About Winter Without Gas
« Reply #111 on: October 25, 2014, 12:23:40 PM »
Eastern Europe Shivers Thinking About Winter Without Gas
24 October 2014
, by Ladka Bauerova and Misha Savic (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-10-23/eastern-europe-shivers-thinking-about-winter-without-gas.html

Excerpt:

As winter approaches, former Soviet satellite nations from Poland to Bulgaria are watching Russia and Ukraine’s stalled gas negotiations with growing trepidation.

The lack of discernible progress is sending a collective shiver down the spine of Eastern Europe, which retains vivid memories of Russian energy cuts during unusually cold winters in 2006 and 2009.

The ensuing shortages led to shuttered factories and a return to wood for heating and cooking in rural areas.

Despite the two episodes, little has been done to diversify supplies within a region that remains highly dependent on energy delivery systems dating back to the Soviet era.

“Parts of eastern Europe are still quite vulnerable this winter,” said Emily Stromquist, a Eurasia analyst in London.

“The problem is that until recently the relations with Russia have generally been good, so perhaps there was no feeling of urgency to build quickly.”

If Moscow and Kiev don’t reach a compromise before winter and OAO Gazprom (GAZP) fails to restart supplies to its western neighbor, Ukraine may resort to siphoning off gas carried through its territory.

As in 2009, that could prompt Russia to cut transit through Ukraine altogether, leaving parts of eastern Europe exposed to severe shortages.

Poland, Hungary and especially the Balkan peninsula would be most affected, according to the so-called “stress tests” published by the European Union on Oct. 16.
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Offline Letsbereal

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Joaquin Flores Ukraine is a failed state
« Reply #112 on: October 28, 2014, 11:37:53 PM »
Joaquin Flores Ukraine is a failed state https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5AbjyK6erdY

Oct 28, 2014 Ry Dawson
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Offline Letsbereal

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Ukrainian GDP Plunges 5.1% Amid Deadly Conflict in Nation’s East
« Reply #113 on: October 30, 2014, 02:11:09 PM »
Ukrainian GDP Plunges 5.1% Amid Deadly Conflict in Nation’s East
30 October 2014
, by Daryna Krasnolutska (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-10-30/ukrainian-gdp-plunges-5-1-amid-deadly-conflict-in-nation-s-east.html

Ukraine’s economy shrank 5.1% in the third quarter from a year earlier, the most in almost five years, as industrial production and the hryvnia slumped amid the bloody conflict in the country’s east.

The drop is less than the 9% median estimate of six economists in a Bloomberg survey.

Seasonally adjusted gross domestic product fell 2.1% from the previous quarter, the state statistics committee said today on its website.

Months of fighting have left pro-Russian rebels in control of a swathe of Ukraine’s easternmost regions, which generated almost a quarter of industrial output at the start of the year.

The knock-on effects of idle factories are seeping through an economy at risk of a 10% contraction in 2014, according to Ukraine’s central bank.

The International Monetary Fund says a $17 billion bailout loan may not be enough to avert a default.

Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk said last month pro-Russian militants were purposely ruining plants, roads and other infrastructure in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions that are home to the bulk of Ukraine’s steel mills and coal mines.

 The economy may only return to growth in 2016, he said.

Industrial output sank 12.1% from a year earlier in July, 21.4% in August and 16.6% last month.

Central bank reserves have tumbled toward a nine-year low as the hryvnia plunged 36.67% this year, the most in the world, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

An IMF mission will visit Ukraine to assess increasing the loan once a new cabinet is formed, central Bank Governor Valeriya Gontareva said Oct. 16.

Snap parliamentary elections on Oct. 26 delivered a landslide victor for pro-European parties led by President Petro Poroshenko’s bloc and Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk’s People’s Front.
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Offline Letsbereal

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Thank You US Taxpayers: Russia-Ukraine Agree Terms On Gas-Supply Through March
« Reply #114 on: October 30, 2014, 07:46:21 PM »
Thank You US Taxpayers: Russia-Ukraine Agree Terms On Gas-Supply Through March
30 October 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-30/thank-you-us-taxpayers-russia-ukraine-agree-terms-gas-supply-through-march

    *RUSSIA CONFIRMS GAS SUPPLY RESUMPTION TERMS AGREED WITH UKRAINE

    *GAZPROM, NAFTOGAZ CEOS SIGN AMENDMENT TO CONTRACT

    *RUSSIA, UKRAINE, EU AGREEMENT TO COVER DELIVERY THROUGH MARCH

    *OETTINGER: RUSSIA TO CHARGE UKRAINE $385/KCM THROUGH MARCH

    *UKRAINE READY TO IMMEDIATELY PAY $1.45B OF GAS DEBT: OETTINGER

    *NAFTOGAZ TO PAY $1.6B AS 2ND GAS DEBT INSTALLMENT BY YEAR-END

    *UKRAINE TO USE EU, IMF AID TO PAY FOR RUSSIAN GAS: OETTINGER
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Offline Letsbereal

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EU Official Says "The Ukrainians Are Manipulating Us" - Ukraine Currency Crashes
« Reply #115 on: November 11, 2014, 09:53:50 AM »
Ukraine Currency Crashes After Senior EU Official Says "The Ukrainians Are Manipulating Us"
11 November 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-11/ukraine-currency-crashes-after-senior-eu-official-says-ukrainians-are-manipulating-u

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Offline Letsbereal

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Re: Ukrainian people are in for a rude awakening – Welcome to the West!
« Reply #116 on: November 13, 2014, 08:07:08 PM »
Debt Wrangle Engulfs Ukraine’s Mriya in $1 Billion Restructuring
12 November 2014
, by Julie Miecamp (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-11-12/debt-battle-engulfs-ukraine-s-mriya-in-1-billion-restructuring.html

Excerpt:

International bondholders advised by Rothschild are recommending a change in control at Ukrainian agricultural company Mriya Agro Holding Plc (MAYA) as the grower of crops from wheat to potatoes seeks to restructure about $1 billion of debt.

Tensions have increased since Mriya said in August it missed payments on some of its obligations.

Rothschild, which is representing a group of creditors including Ashmore Investment Management Ltd, T. Rowe Price Associates Inc. and CarVal Investors, said Ternopil, Ukraine-based Mriya proposed reducing its debt by about 66% when it met with stakeholders last month, while declining to provide financial statements.

“The level of trust in Mriya’s current leadership is rather low and the company’s debt structure so unsustainable that a change in control would be probably beneficial to Mriya and all its stakeholders,” Giovanni Salvetti, who co-heads Rothschild’s Russia and Ukraine team in Moscow, said in an interview.

“By asking creditors to write off two thirds of the debt, the company implicitly admits the current equity is wiped off.”

The bondholder group asked Ukrainian authorities to investigate the company’s owners and facilitate a “fair and transparent restructuring” in a public letter last month.

A unit of OTP Bank Nyrt., Hungary’s largest lender, said Nov. 10 it’s taking legal steps to repossess farming equipment after Mriya stopped making lease payments and blocked officials from recovering the assets.
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Offline Letsbereal

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Ukraine Bonds Sink as Risk of War in East Stokes Default Concern
« Reply #117 on: November 13, 2014, 08:09:23 PM »
Ukraine Bonds Sink as Risk of War in East Stokes Default Concern
12 November 2014
, by Krystof Chamonikolas (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-11-12/ukraine-2017-yield-jumps-to-record-as-rebels-seen-massing-forces.html

Excerpt:

Ukrainian bonds slumped the most since March as the threat of open war in the nation’s east deepened concern the government will struggle to repay debt.

The yield on Ukraine’s $2.6 billion of bonds due July 2017 soared 154 basis points to a record 17.67% at 7:14 p.m. in Kiev, bringing the eight-day increase to 428 basis points, or 4.28 percentage points.

The hryvnia, which is down 18% this month in the world’s largest decline, was unchanged at 15.85 per dollar. Ukrainian shares slid for a fifth day.

The threat that a two-month-old cease-fire in Ukraine will unravel grew today as NATO accused Russia of sending troops and heavy weapons into its neighbor.

As the nation suffers from its second recession in five years, the return to war raises the likelihood Ukraine will struggle to pay back debt, according to Standard Bank Group Ltd.

The government has $14.63 billion of principal and interest payments due by the end of 2015, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“Investors are voting with their feet, they now expect further Russian military intervention and expect the West to do nothing to help Ukraine,” Timothy Ash, London-based chief economist for emerging markets at Standard Bank, said by e-mail today.

Bondholders are increasingly concerned that a war could trigger a “collapse” of state, leaving the country unable to pay its debt, he said.

The separatists and their Russian backers are amassing troops in the areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions they’ve seized, Ukrainian Defense Minister Stepan Poltorak told a government meeting in Kiev earlier today.

Russia’s Defense Ministry denied its involvement, state-run RIA Novosti reported.
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Offline Letsbereal

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Re: Ukrainian people are in for a rude awakening – Welcome to the West!
« Reply #118 on: November 14, 2014, 03:37:57 AM »
Ukraine Default Risk Climbing One Year on From Maidan
13 November 2014
, by Marton Eder (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-11-13/ukraine-default-jitters-mount-one-year-after-crisis-began.html

Excerpt:

Almost one year after the Maidan Square demonstrations began in central Kiev, Ukraine’s record-high borrowing costs are showing how difficult the path toward Europe has become.

The yield on Ukraine’s dollar-denominated note due in July 2017 hit a record 17.95% yesterday, almost quadruple the average borrowing cost for emerging markets, before falling to 17.34% today.

The cost to insure the nation’s debt against non-payment shows a 60% probability of default within five years, according to CMA.

From the ousting of former President Viktor Yanukovych in February amid protests that pushed Ukraine toward closer ties with the European Union to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s annexation of Crimea a month later and the separatist uprising in the nation’s east, bondholders have been rocked by turmoil that has deepened the country’s political and economic crises.

The hryvnia weakened to a record yesterday as NATO accused Russia of sending troops and heavy weapons into Ukraine.

“The main determinant is what Putin has in mind,” Regis Chatellier, a director of emerging-markets credit strategy at Societe Generale SA, who maintains an underweight recommendation for Ukrainian assets, said by e-mail from London yesterday.

“If the combat were to intensify, Ukrainian yields would definitely push higher.”
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Offline Letsbereal

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Ukraine Admits Its Gold Is Gone
« Reply #119 on: November 18, 2014, 11:32:11 PM »
Ukraine Admits Its Gold Is Gone: "There Is Almost No Gold Left In The Central Bank Vault"
18 November 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-18/ukraine-admits-its-gold-gone
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