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« on: November 13, 2011, 02:46:18 PM »


China’s Economy on the Brink of Collapse

By Jane Lin & Alex Wu
Epoch Times Staff
November 7, 2011Last Updated: November 13, 2011

China’s economy is on a dangerous track and may soon experience a crisis worse than the European debt crisis, Chinese economists say.
Since the Chinese regime implemented a series of “tightening” policies to curb the real estate market, home prices have been falling across China. Meanwhile, land sales–the main source of local governments’ revenues–have also dropped sharply.

In late October, several developers in Shanghai abruptly lowered home prices in new developments by 20 to 40 percent. Soon after, price cutting spread to Beijing, Hangzhou and Ningbo in Zhejiang Province, and Nanjing in Jiangsu Province. Recent homebuyers, unhappy about the sudden devaluation of their investments, staged protests with many demanding refunds.
End of Huge Profits “The price cuts in Shanghai are just the beginning, the worst time will be the first season of next year,” an analyst at Centaline China Property Research in Shanghai told The Epoch Times. He added that the era of huge real estate profits will no longer exist in the next decade.

Economist Xie Guozhong recently stated at different occasions: “If China continues its tight monetary policy, many real estate developers will go bankrupt,” and “a 50 percent drop in property values will be the norm in China in the future.”

The large glut of unsold housing can only be digested by the market when prices drop to a level that is affordable to first time home buyers–which means there will be a significant drop in prices, Xie said.

Land Sales Cooling
Government land sales have also cooled off across the country, and local governments’ income from land sales has dropped sharply as a result. Zhuhai City in Guangdong Province serves as an example.

Southern Metropolis Daily said, data published by Zhuhai City’s Financial Bureau shows that land transfer fees in the first three quarters of this year have fallen significantly. Previously estimated at 8.8 billion yuan (US$1.4 billion), the Financial Bureau has adjusted them down to 5 billion yuan (US$788.65 million), a 3 billion yuan (US$473.2 million) reduction.

According to another analysis by First Financial Daily, revenues from land sales in Zhuhai City for the first 10 months of 2010 were 20.39 billion yuan (US$3.22 billion), which accounted for 24 percent of the city’s GDP, and a 14 fold increase from the previous year. Land revenue for the first 10 months of 2011, by contrast, are barely half that amount.

On Nov. 1, the city started implementing a new restriction on home purchases and prices. Many developers see this as a trigger for a new wave of real estate prices declining.

Financial Crisis Imminent
Cheng Xiaonong, an economist based in the U.S., told The Epoch Times that a 30 percent drop in home prices in a short period of time is a sign that a financial crisis is about to hit China.
“When the housing bubble bursts and developers go bankrupt, banks will grapple with high default rates and bad debt, resulting in a financial crisis in the banking system,” Cheng said.

Cheng said within a year China could experience a crisis worse than the European debt crisis. “Actually, a financial crisis has already erupted in China,” he said.
Chen Zhifei, an economics professor at New York’s City University told New Tang Dynasty TV that the rapid drop in both home and land sales will lead to drastic reductions in local governments’ land revenues, and local governments will make up the loss through taxation.

Such taxation would lead to mass protests and social instability as was seen recently in Huzhou of eastern China’s Zhejiang Province where a mass protest against taxation attracted worldwide attention, Chen said.
Economist and author He Qinglian told The Epoch Times that China’s real estate bubble should have burst in 2008. But at that time the Chinese regime put out a 4 trillion yuan (US$630.92 billion) stimulus package to save the economy, and half of it went to the real estate market and related fields, delaying the bursting of the bubble.

“The bursting of the bubble at the present time, its damage and negative impact on China’s economy, is a lot harder for the Chinese regime to deal with now,” Ms. He said.
Bursting the bubble gives China’s economy a chance to adjust the economic structure, and local governments should tighten their belts, since land revenues have dropped, Ms. He said.
“Nevertheless, they will increase taxes to raise their income, and China’s economy therefore will never be on the right track,” she added.

Ms. He said China’s economic development is a false prosperity achieved at the cost of damaging the environment and natural resources. Being the world’s factory, China doesn’t have its own brand name products. In addition China heavily relies on imports for its energy needs and has few resources to export except rare earth metals. Furthermore, with the largest peasant population in the world, China is unable to maintain self-sufficiency in food production.

Regarding some economists’ comments that the collapse of the real estate market will result in a “hard landing” for China’s economy, He said: “China’s economy has never taken off, so there is no such thing as a landing. Actually, China’s economy is more like an out-of-control high speed train that could derail at anytime.”

http://www.theepochtimes.com/n2/china-news/chinas-economy-on-the-brink-of-collapse-136095.html

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« Reply #1 on: November 13, 2011, 03:35:18 PM »

China's Wen: Beijing wants real estate to correct
6 November 2011
, by Chris Oliver - Hong Kong (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chinas-wen-beijing-wants-real-estate-to-correct-2011-11-06

China is seeking a "reasonable correction" in housing prices, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao reportedly said Monday, affirming the government will keep its policy stance involving administrative controls and other measures intended to cool the market.

Wen was cited by the Chinese-language Phoenix TV as saying during a visit to Russia that Beijing will seek to make homes more affordable and promote a stable and healthy development of the housing sector.
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« Reply #2 on: November 15, 2011, 01:03:46 PM »

Maybe if they tried floating their currency it would help.

People of the world are on to China.

Beijing's Secret War On America -
How China Expects To Win

http://www.rense.com/general50/bej.htm



"The first rule of unrestricted warfare is that there are no rules, with nothing forbidden."
 
- Col. Qiao Liang & Col. Wang Xiangsui China's People's Liberation Army, and
co-authors of 'Unrestricted Warfare'.
 
Has there ever been a rising power, in the pages of history, that has picked up economic momentum... packed on military might... and then decided not to flex it's muscles? The answer, as you well know, is that there hasn't. Power is power. The nations that have it chomp at the bit to use it. Which is exactly what China is doing now. But you don't have to take my word for it.
 
Roger W. Robinson Jr -- head of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission -- gave this testimony to the U.S. House of Representatives back in October 2003. He laid out the Chinese blueprint for undermining the U.S. economy:
 
First, they devalue their currency by as much as 40%
 
Then they issue tariffs on foreign goods
 
They cut foreign firms off from local marketing channels
 
They chaperone and handpick partners for international joint ventures
 
They give preferential loans to their own factories from state banks
 
Chinese companies get privileged listing on the Chinese stock market
 
Chinese companies get special tax breaks not available to foreigners
 
This assault on the American economy is already well under way. Whether they'll succeed or not we don't yet know. But for a long time to come, you'll need to protect yourself and your money. But you can also profit -- by as much as 794% or more. Click the "Subscribe Now" button below to send for your FREE set of the STRATEGIC PROFITS PROTECTION LIBRARY.
 
Look, by now you might be wondering if I've got some sort of personal vendetta against China. No! That's not the case at all.
 
I've got nothing against China or the Chinese. In fact, I'm making plans right now to go there and all around the rest of Asia do research on the massive investment opportunities already under way.
 
China has an unbelievable history. They have lots of culture. Three thousand years ago, they were building palaces... while my ancestors were making mud patties on the English moors. So no, I'm under no delusions about the greatness China is capable of.
 
But that doesn't change the rest of the facts I'm about to show you.
 
When I show them to you, I'm confident you'll come to the same conclusions I have. You'll see instantly that what's quietly unraveling the fabric of the American economy... the exploding deficits, the massive trade gap, the joblessness, and even some secret aspects of the war on terrorism... is not only no accident, but it can all be traced back to, shockingly enough, Beijing.
 
Here's the "real" truth: Without a doubt, China's military government has actually masterminded adeliberate assault on the American way of life. I'm going to show you how they've done it.
It's a war. Not with tanks or missiles.
 
Not with jets, bullets, or guns. Or hand grenades.
 
The "combatants" in this battle wear business suits. They hit you with handshakes, contracts, and smiles. But d on't be fooled. This is war without rules. In the words of one of their own military officers, "nothing is forbidden." Without drawing a drop of blood, Beijing fully expects to win... and here's how they plan to do it:
Guerilla Economics!
 
Step back for a second. And remember...
 
When we talk about modern China, we're not talking about a democracy. We're talking about a military dictatorship. Even now, in 2004. This is the way they do business.
I'm calling it "guerilla economics."
 
The goal is to destroy the competition. And at the same time... create a guaranteed money-making environment for China's own entrepreneurs. Is it working.
 
For China, absolutely...
 
Ding Lei is 32 years old. He's also the richest man in China. His NetEase.com outfit didn't crank out a nickel of profit until 2003. But his stock is up 50-fold thanks to ecstatic American investors, and Ding is now personally worth $900 million!
 
Chen Tianqiao is just 30. In 1999, he ran a cartoon Web site. Now he runs Shanda Networking, an online gaming business out of Shanghai. New York venture capitalists helped him get started. Now he's personally worth $480 million.
 
Larry Rong's dad is Rong Yiren, founder of CITIC. CITIC is the biggest company in China and a magnet for U.S. investment dollars. Larry is personally worth $850 million. His family is worth closer to $2 billion.
The military government of China has their hands deep in the pie too. Take China's biggest TV and cell phone maker, TCL Corp. It's state owned. Last year they exported 3.83 million TVs. They expect to ship 5 million more!
"All Beijing has to do is to mention the possibility of a sell order going down the wires. It would devastate the U.S. economy more than any nuclear strike."
 
Asia Times, Jan. 23, 2004
 
The top 100 richest people in China now have an average wealth of $230 million. Another 10,000 or so more Chinese are worth at least $10 million so far. And that's up from zero millionaires in China as recently as 1979.
Of course, most of the companies listed on the Shanghai exchange are still state-owned. The top 14 Chinese car-makers are state owned -- with bloated bureaucratic budgets. But that doesn't matter -- in 2003, U.S. investors poured millions and millions of dollars into China Brilliance Automotive shares -- and it's stock shot up 232%!
For all appearances, it looks like China has cracked the code of Western capitalism.
 
Three years ago, for instance, China didn't manufacture a single laptop. NOW they make 40% of all laptops sold worldwide! They're also ranked as the world's biggest maker of computer hardware... consumer electronics... even steel (remember when that used to be Pittsburgh?).
 
China cranks out 38% of the world's cell phones. And half of the world's shoes. Plus most of the wooden furniture, video games, and televisions in the United States.
 
But guess what happens when you take a look at the other side of the coin...
 
Is This the End of the American Miracle?
 
We're feeling the China boom right here at home, too.
 
But somehow it's not the same...
 
Here in the United States, American Metal Ware had made nearly 2.5 million pots in their Wisconsin factory... before they had to shut it down. Chinese manufactures stole the design and cran ked out copies at half the price. To compete, Metal Ware had to move over to China.
 
Levi's were the all-American brand. They once had 63 U.S. plants. They just closed the last two and fired all the workers. Levi's will be made in China now.
 
Walt Disney was an all-American success story. But Disney's "Winnie the Pooh" dolls are made not here, but in the same place as Dr. Scholl's sandals and Foster Grant Sunglasses -- China.
 
How about Wilson tennis balls or Black & Decker drills? Silk flowers, sneakers, wood furniture, and hand-held "Game Boy" video games? All sold here, but all manufactured in... China.
 
A mind-blowing 80% of all the toys, bikes, and Christmas tree ornaments sold in the Unites States came from China. Along with 90% of the sporting goods and 95% of the shoes.
 
Motorola spent over $1 billion moving operations from the US to China. Thousands lost their jobs -- replaced by 10,000 Chinese workers in four new plants on the coast of the Yellow Sea.
 
Look, there's nothing wrong with making money. And you can't fault anybody for just doing business and looking out for their own best interests. But at what cost? And whose expense?
 
A New Hampshire radio show made a public dare:
 
"Take $400 an hour at Wal-Mart. Buy as many 'Made In America' goods as you can."
Two listeners took the challenge.
 
An hour later, they hit the checkout line with a basketful of 40 items. Guess how many actually were made in America? Just 10.
 
It's no wonder. Sam Walton, Wal-Mart's founder, wrote an autobiography called "Made In America." But today, Wal-Mart alone imports a mind-blowing $12 billion of goods from China every year...
 
That's more than China's trade with either Russia or the United Kingdom! How did this happen?
Beijing's Ugly SECRET #1: "Crush the Competition With Slave Labor !"
 
Chinese workers average 61¢ an hour. US factory workers average $16 an hour. In other words, US workers make more in two weeks than most Chinese laborers make in a whole year!
 
Nobody outside of China can compete with that.
 
"We are beholden to the Chinese by our Treasuries. That worries me."
 
Carla Hills, Former U.S. trade representative
 
China gets an endless supply of labor for just pennies. And there's a waiting list nearly 200 million people long to take over those jobs when the current workers drop from exhaustion (they work 12 hour days, 7 days a week).
Moral or not, Beijing's slave-labor strategy does exactly what they hoped it would...
 
It's sucked the life out of America's more costly industrial complex!
 
Just check out the numbers: Over 450 U.S. companies are based in China. That's more than 10 times the number of U.S. companies there in 1990. They've got combined annual sales of $23 billion. And more than 250,000 employees. In fact, U.S. investment in China is now a record $33 billion a year!
 
Meanwhile...
 
Nearly 2,250 American manufacturing jobs here in the Unites States have disappeared... every single day! That's a not something new... it's been the trend day in and day out, over and over again... for 40 months straight!
What are the Chinese up to? They learned this trick from the Americans. Especially mega-rich superstars like Andrew Carnegie, John Rockefeller, and J. Pierpont Morgan.
 
It's the genius strategy of any savvy monopoly maker: First, move in and CRUSH the competition with cutthroat pricing. Then... take away his business and leave him high and dry!
Thanks to slave labor, Chinese companies can crush U.S. competition with lots of cheap goods that USED to be made right here in America. In exchange, they not only get our purchases... they get our companies, when they're forced to pack up and move over to China so they can take advantage of the same cheap labor strategy.
What's more, China also gets to send a whole new kind of export to America... Chinese STOCKS! And in return for that, they get billions more in investment capital. Straight from the trading accounts of private U.S. investors. Imagine.
 
We're literally paying Beijing to "rip the heart" out of the U.S. heartland!
But it gets even better. Because that's only the FIRST dirty strategy engineered and overseen by Beijing. Here's the second...
Beijing's Dirty SECRET #2:"Bait the Trap With Treasury Notes!"
 
Another fallout from Beijing's supercheap labor strategy is America's massive trade deficit with China. It just keeps exploding.
 
As you can see in this chart, it's already passed a gap of over $120 billion. That means we actually BUY $120 billion more in goods from China than we manage to SELL to them. A household can't get rich... or stay rich... if it spends more than it takes in. Neither can a nation.
 
Yet, no matter what we try to do to stop the gap from growing... weaken our dollars, create trade tariffs, perfect production and slash costs... America just can't keep up.
 
The trade deficit is now exploding $1.5 billion per day. Putting that in perspective... that means we spend an additional $1 million on Chinese products... every single passing minute!
 
But that's not the worst part. Guess what China is doing with all that money?
 
First, the money we send China gets reinvested in the PLA, China's massive military. (New reports say China has just built low-profile military bases on several disputed reefs in the Philippines!).
 
Second, it goes back into funding more huge Chinese factories. With 200 million Chinese looking for jobs, China needs to build places for them to work! It also needs to buy HUGE stockpiles of raw resources to keep the factories running.
 
Third, and most dangerous of all, the Chinese government uses a lot of their extra exporting income... to pile up an absolutely SICK number of U.S. Treasury bonds!
 
That's right. China spends nearly $7.8 million an hour... or $187 million a day... snapping up US Treasuries and dollars. The movers and shakers in China now hold the U.S. hostage to over $120 billion in Treasuries!
Now ask yourself:
 
If it's obvious that U.S. interest rates have nowhere to go but up... if it's obvious the U.S. dollar has nowhere to go but down... and if it's obvious that Washington right now is literally spending America into oblivion...
Why would the Chinese government sock so much faith in U.S. treasuries?
Simple. It's not a vote in America's future at all. Instead, it's Beijing's way of backing America into a corner! Think about it.
 
The Feb. 5, 2004 Wall Street Journal has already reported that other Asian countries -- who altogether with China and Japan included -- hold an eye-popping $1.9 TRILLIONin U.S. foreign reserves -- are starting to dump U.S. debt.
Korea and Thailand dumping is one thing. But when a massive holder like China stops buying U.S. debt and starts dumping, it's a much, MUCH bigger deal. Pressure on U.S. bond yields will skyrocket. Other foreign investors will run from dollar-priced securities in a panic. Long interest-rates will jump. And U.S. consumers, businesses, and investors will get crushed in the jaws of a very powerful "Treasury Trap"!
 
It won't take more than a whisper - "sell." And that's your signal. I promised earlier to show you how to protect yourself from exactly this kind of disaster. And that's precisely what you'll discover in your FREE e-mail report "Total Profit Protection From the Coming China Crisis! "
 
But before we dig into all that, let me share with you just one more piece of this sinister puzzle...
Beijing's Dangerous Strategy #3:"Lock the U.S. Dollar in a Death Struggle"
 
To finance all its foreign debt, the United States has to spend a breathtaking $55 million per hour... or $1.3 billion per day... just to keep enough liquidity in the system to cover overseas interest-payment obligations.
 
Washington treats the Federal Reserve like a money machine: Walk up, punch the buttons on the printing press, and out comes the cash!< P>Why? Because the more dollars there are, the less they're worth. And the less they're worth, the easier it is to cover those interest obligations without wincing.
 
"America's growing reliance on high quality, low-price Chinese imports eventually might undermine the U.S. defense industrial base."
 
US-China Security Review Commission Report
 
Trouble is, no government -- not even one as large as America's -- can keep up with that kind of program. Especially when you're overextended on your own personal spending budget by nearly half a trillion (with a "t") dollars!
 
So just by holding U.S. Treasures, Beijing already has us trapped.
 
But they haven't stopped there.
 
China has ALSO hoarded piles and piles of ever-cheaper U.S ..dollars. They've now got more than $310 billion in U.S .dollar reserves! Again, you have to ask:
 
If U.S. dollars are backed by an overextended federal government... and if other major governments worldwide are already talking about switching reserves to gold and euros... if America's money isn't worth the paper it's printed on...
 
Why would China want to keep so much of their newfound wealth in the U.S. dollar, a currency that's already down more than 50% since October 2000?
 
Again, it's simple.
 
Since 1995, the Chinese currency -- the yuan -- has been pegged to the dollar at the weak exchange rate of 8.28 to the dollar. No matter how low the dollar goes, the yuan goes with it.
 
So no matter how low the dollar goes... it's virtually impossible to close any currency-related trading gap we've got with China! It's like seeing how long two enemies can hold their breath under water.
Whoever can w ithstand having a dirt-cheap currency the longest wins. But so far, judging just by the trading deficit, it looks like China is winning. And the U.S. is running out of options.
 
Could a stronger dollar shake loose the yuan's death grip?
 
Not at all. This is how the sinister yuan strategy works. If the dollar rises, the yuan rises in lock step. If the dollar drops, so does the yuan. China's trading advantage never disappears... but we risk popping our own real estate bubble, slashing trade with Europe, and knocking the legs out from under stocks and bonds.
 
Meanwhile, China still has $310 billion in dollar reserves... which it can trade for euros or gold at any time... and use to throw the dollar into a final death spiral.
 
When Beijing starts dumping, what follows could be worse for dollars than anything since Nixon broke with Bretton Woods in the 1970s.
 
Your FREE copy of "Total Profit Protection From the Coming China Crisis!" will also show you to protect yourself against this inevitable dollar collapse... with a strategies that can turnsevery $1,000 invested into as much as $78,400 or more. But first...
 
Still wondering how or why all of this could have been a planned economic attack... rather than just an accident of free-market capitalism? Still think all this is a coincidence?
 
That's ok.
 
But before you make up your mind to the contrary, you'd better read this.. click here to continue .
http://www.agora-inc.com/reports/DRI/china324/
 
 
 
Comment
From Danny Chaplin
3-6-4
 
 
Nobody is forcing Levis, Disney, Scholls or Motorola to shift their manufacturing to China. Those companies do it out of greed for maximised profits through abundant cheap labour, which China is more than happy to provide. Not so long ago, before China became flavour of the month for slave labour, it was Nike and their ilk taking advantage of cheap labour in Indonesia to manufacture their crap sports gear.
 
Now all your IT companies are outsourcing to places like India too. Ha! Americans would like to pretend that they are the world's "take no prisoners" capitalists .. any foreigner with a taste of how American companies ruthlessly do business understands this conceit .. the culture of success (and no one loves you on the way down, etc.) So if the Chinese are smarter capitalists than Americans can ever hope to be, then why bash China? Americans have the saying, "fake it until you make it" but the Chinese are so bloody good and so clever that they know how to "make it" from the get-go; yet unlike Americans they don't feel the need to broadcast their (genuine) cleverness. That's the difference between the two cultures.
 
It is America that's been going round the world the past 50 years telling everyone else they must adopt the capitalist system. It was alright so long as the Chinese were those funny slitty eyed people who didn't have a pot to piss in. But don't whine when they finally sit up and not only adopt capitalism but beat America at its own game by being the most savvy exponents of it!

 
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