One would think this would be the end of the discussion, that the laws of physics show us that CO2 isn't even a significant "greenhouse gas" and certainly the human contribution is insignificant. We both now know that CO2 can't possibly be the evil byproduct all the ballyhoo has been claiming, and in fact, our biologist friends tell us if we could increase the CO2 content a little more, the planet would be much the richer... because plants love it, grow much larger with more of it, and we all like to eat. CO2 is a non-toxic, non-polluting, earth-friendly component that really is critical to our survival. Maybe that's why we laughed so hard when the Popular Journalist in the Addison Independent insisted that 340, rather than 380 parts per million CO2 was a "target" we should all shoot for. While you're pulling rabbits out of a hat, could you please bring me a Pepsi?
OK, if you still are compelled to worry about something, think about this: The amount of oxygen in our atmosphere is slowly diminishing. A very long time ago, it was as much as 35% of the atmosphere, and has been shrinking ever since. We always wondered why those plant-eating eating dinosaurs had such long necks, and now we know - they had to reach up for dinner into the really tall trees that once dotted our oxygen-rich planet.
But let's not worry about that just now, for this current story is far from over. If you've read this far, you're likely more curious than most, and probably more intelligent than average. And you probably want to know exactly what is causing the warming and cooling periods on the planet which have been going on for millennia. Inquiring minds want to know this stuff.
Let's break for a minute, and point out that "Climate Science" is a catch-all term, like "Sports". The fellow who takes a daily temperature reading or measures the snow depth with a stick could call himself a "Climate Scientist" as much as the person tending the boiler in the basement could call himself a "Stationary Engineer". Earth's climate is an enormously complex subject, spanning not only the "pure" sciences like physics and chemistry, but many of the "natural sciences", such as oceanography, meteorology, volcanology, paleontology, archeology, solar science, and many others. All scientists aren't of the same quality, intellect, or natural talent for the trade. Sloppy scientists are as common as bad mechanics.
At the top of the pecking order of knowledge needs sit the fundamental laws of physics - for no matter what others may determine, the final results must obey the fundamental, established principles which determine the nature of all elemental matter. Unfortunately, many "environmental scientists" actually study very little physics, chemistry or biology in depth. And many of the "lower" sciences involve little mathematics beyond introductory calculus. Before the greater body of scientists out there start beating on us, we'll admit that very few physicists had a time slot to study organic chemistry and beyond in college - and the truth of the matter is, there aren't enough semester hours available for everyone to be cross-trained in other disciplines to any competent depth. This makes becoming a highly skilled "Climate Scientist" very challenging, for this extremely complex field requires a very large tool kit. Thus, we trust others to deliver meaningful results from their specific disciplines. If a geologist tells us a particular rock is from the Devonian Period, we have little choice but to believe him. So in what follows, we're going to have to trust we have chosen good, solid scientists from other disciplines as our guide.
In reading "scientific articles" one must also be very alert to use of the word "if". This is the killer word - the Colt .45 of sloppy or even deliberately misleading science. "If" the sea level rises 40 feet, then certainly most of Manhattan will be flooded. "If" the moon falls on Kansas, then certainly wheat prices are going to soar out of site. Within a sentence or two, "if" morphs into "when" and soon everyone is convinced that the moon is absolutely going to fall on Kansas, it's just a matter of time, we're all doomed... unless we take immediate action to stop it. But neither of these are very likely to happen, as we shall soon see.
After the hockey stick was accepted virtually overnight without close examination ( like the Piltdown Man ), along comes Al Gore, a long-time "environmentalist", ( who made near-failing grades in science and math in college ) who decides to make a movie out of it. The hockey stick goes up on the big screen, and Gore boards a mechanical lift with cameras grinding, pointer in hand as he rises in unison with the blade of the stick which starts growing upward toward the ceiling. No longer are we talking about tenths of a degree, the temperature is rising like a puff pastry, and headed toward the attic. It all began with the word "if". If the hockey stick tip continues to rise (lift starts going upward, the audience holds its breath ) then... and along comes computer animations of New York flooding, Florida underwater, and poor little Polar Bears struggling to board the last piece of ice floating in the open Arctic Sea. (sigh...)It ends with Hurricane Katrina and Boston almost losing the pennant. It is Hollywood at its finest, and the Deacons of La La Land give it an Oscar. Even the Nobel Committee is impressed, gives it two thumbs-up and a Nobel Prize to Gore and the other members of the IPCC for the many lives that will be saved in the future because of this brilliant early warning. And, there's still time for we miserable humans to "save" the planet by buying "carbon offsets" accomplished best by investing in Al Gore's British company which buys stock in other companies that will benefit from a world-wide global warming hysteria (keeping a healthy cut) and making, perhaps, Al Gore the richest former Vice President in history. That will buy a lot of SUV's, jets, and large mansions with mega-electric bills. Everyone wins except the taxpayer and businessman, who are soon to pay a very heavy price.
So what's really causing the endless cycles of warming and cooling, if it isn't a constantly changing "Greenhouse Effect" - with man to blame? Man wasn't producing much CO2 in the past million years, so he hasn't simply been turning the greenhouse up and down at will. Just look up - one of the most likely culprits is our old friend, the Sun.
Canadian climatologist Tim Patterson says the sun drives the earth's climate changes—and Earth's current global warming is a direct result of a long, moderate 1,500-year cycle in the sun's irradiance.
Patterson says he learned of the 1,500-year climate cycle while studying cycles in fish numbers on Canada's West Coast. Since the Canadian West had no long-term written fishery records, Patterson's research team drilled sediment cores in the deep local fjords to get 5,000-year climate profiles from the mud. The mud showed the past climate conditions: Warm summers left layers thick with one-celled fossils and fish scales. Cold, wet periods showed dark sediments, mostly dirt washed from the surrounding land. Patterson's fishing profiles clearly revealed the sun's 87 and 210-year solar cycles—and the longer, 1500-year Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles found since the 1980s in ice cores, tree rings, and fossil pollen. "Even though the sun is brighter now than at any time in the past 8,000 years, the increase in direct solar input is not calculated to be sufficient to cause the past century's modest warming on its own. There had to be an amplifier of some sort for the sun to be a primary driver of climate changes. Indeed, that is precisely what has been discovered," says Patterson.
"In a series of groundbreaking scientific papers starting in 2000, Vizer, Shaviv, Carslaw and most recently Svensmark et al., have collectively demonstrated that as the output of the sun varies ... varying amounts of galactic cosmic rays from deep space are able to enter our solar system... These cosmic rays enhance cloud formation, which, overall, has a cooling effect on the planet."
"When the sun is less bright, more cosmic rays are able to get through to Earth's atmosphere, more clouds form and the planet cools... This is precisely what happened from the middle of the 17th century into the early 18th century, when the solar energy input to our atmosphere ... was at a minimum and the planet was stuck in the Little Ice Age."
The Canadian expert concludes, "CO2 variations show little correlation with our planet's climate on long, medium and even short time scales. Instead, Earth's sea surface temperatures show a massive 95 percent lagged correlation with the sunspot index." We'll talk about what a "correlation" means in a couple of minutes.
So what does this all mean? It means, in the simplest of terms, that it is the Sun which is warming the oceans, not an increased "Greenhouse Effect" caused by human activity.
And, it might appear that Mother Earth is not the only one suffering from the Sun's effect. Data from NASA’s Mars Global Surveyor and Odyssey mission in 2005 disclosed that the carbon dioxide "ice caps” near Mars’ south pole had been shrinking for three consecutive summers. Mmmm... We could go on for endless pages on solar science and the sun's relationship to global warming, but we're not going to do that. One of the best summary articles we've found in simple layman terms is by Kevin Roeten, and you can read more on that by clicking HERE.
The current warming Solar Cycle is just about over. The global temperatures have been nominally flat for the past 8 years.
If the Solar Scientists are correct, we about to head into a cooling cycle... which is not good news.
The above chart shows two things we immediately recognize as very similar. In fact they seem to match each other very well. We would say they have a strong correlation, and with a little mathematics, we could compare each one point-by-point on the graph and come up with a number that would tell us just how well they match each other, called a correlation coefficient. In fact, a glance at the above suggests a perfect, 100% correlation, because in fact one is an exact copy of the other. We know this because we made the chart.
Now suppose the blue one represents changing CO2 levels in the atmosphere and the red one represents changing global temperatures over the same time frame. The above is a gross exaggeration, of course, but we wanted to make sure no one doubted there is a strong correlation between the two. Is there any doubt that CO2 is causing the global temperature to change? Any doubt at all? None? Zero doubt, right?
Wrong In fact, the blue line is exactly one pixel on your screen ahead of the red line. We know that because we made the chart. You couldn't tell that one was exactly like the other and actually leading it by one pixel without dragging out a powerful magnifying device and doing some very careful measurements and some pretty lengthy mathematics.
This was the fundamental mistake that Mann, Al Gore, the Oscar boys, the Nobel Committee, the IPCC, and just about everyone else on the planet made at the beginning. They immediately assumed, noticing that CO2 levels and global temperatures had a pretty good correlation, that CO2 was the culprit, and was causing global temperatures to rise. In fact, it appears it was just the opposite: rising global temperatures caused increased CO2 level in the atmosphere.
So where did the increasing CO2 come from? You can't make CO2 out of Oxygen and Nitrogen... surely you're pulling my leg!
Let's do a little simple Chemistry, and figure out the molecular mass of the different atmospheric constituents. For this we go to the Periodic Table of the Elements, and find the atomic mass of Nitrogen, Carbon, Hydrogen, and Oxygen. Let's forget about Argon, which is about 0.9% of the atmosphere, because it's supposed to be CO2 that's the evil stuff. To the nearest round number, Carbon = 12, Nitrogen = 14, Oxygen = 16, and lowly Hydrogen = 1. That's based on the number of protons and neutrons in the nucleus of the atom. The Periodic Table will give a slightly different number, because of that binding energy ( which is a mass equivalent ) we talked about earlier.
So, what's the approximate molecular mass of the different gasses? That's simple addition:
1 +1+16 = 18 amu
14 + 14 = 28 amu
16 + 16 = 32 amu
Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
12 + 16 + 16 = 44 amu
Remember, we're rounding off to the nearest whole number, and amu means Atomic Mass Units.
Do you see something significant? Think like a scientist. Yes, CO2 is by far the heaviest of the major constituents, and the law of gravity applies to it as well. It sinks to the ground.. in fact, into the ground, and into the oceans, as well, because CO2 is very water-soluble and that's what puts the fizz in Ginger Ale.
This doesn't happen overnight. In fact, the winds and convection currents and such keep the air stirred up constantly, so it may take 100-150 years for the CO2 you are exhaling right now to make it back into mother earth, where most of it is currently locked up.
Now our puzzle is complete, and we can visualize the whole thing.
1. The sun heats the earth, repository of most of the CO2 on the planet.
2. Some stored CO2 comes out by a process known as outgassing ( from the soil ) and the champagne effect ( from the oceans ). The oceans are by far the largest source.
3. Sloppy "scientists" see the warming, and the CO2, but overlook the changes in the sun, don't see the fine differences in timing... and proceed to blame the increasing temperature on CO2 and mankind as the culprit in a classic knee-jerk reaction.
Funny, any 1st Grader would have told us that if we had asked them "What makes the earth warm, Susie?" Nobody ever said science had to be "hard". You can demonstrate this with a simple kitchen experiment. Pour a glass of ginger ale, sit it on the table, and see how long it takes to go "flat" at room temperature. Now pour an equal glass into a pan and put it on the stove on low heat, then time how long it takes to go flat. That's your homework experiment - to demonstrate that extra heat really releases CO2 a lot faster :-)>
Our satellites are pretty good at measuring overall ocean temperatures from afar, and CO2 measurements are being taken daily around the globe. The best results we have been able to turn up so far is that measurable CO2 increases appear about 9 months after an upswing in ocean temperatures. The data is messed up a bit every time a volcano decides to blow its top, because that's the mother of CO2 producers, bar none. And a buffalo emits about the same amount of methane (CH4) as driving your automobile about 8,000 miles - which can combine with O2 in a highly exothermic reaction ( gives off heat ) to produce CO2 and H2O as end products.
One question that has been nagging us here at the Middlebury Community Network Science Center (our desk) is, "how in heck does one measure the "global temperature" in the first place"? If we asked you what your skin temperature is right now, you'd likely answer, "Where?" The temperature on your nose is likely far different from the bottom of your feet or other places you might measure. With the greater portion of the earth covered by water, and no floating temperature recording buoys every mile or so, how can we get an "average"? Well, satellites can measure ocean temperatures ( we'll talk more about that later ) but here in the U.S., for example there are only 1221 U.S. Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) stations, and our math shows that to be about one every 3,400 square miles.
And from that data, one can cherry-pick (as some have done ) to obtain any result he wants. For example, here are four records we cherry-picked from the whole dataset - note the temperatures are in Fahrenheit, not Centigrade:
Cornwall, Vermont temperatures appear to have slowly
increased during the past century - about 1/2 °F
...time to break out the lifeboats.
Steamboat Springs, Colorado, on the other hand,
had a temperature drop of about 4 °F
Darn, they're stealing our skiers!
Berkley, California really heated up - a whopping 3 °F
Must have been all those protests in the 60's...
Bucyrus, Ohio doesn't seem to have a ticket one way
or the other in the Global Warming Game.
What's that straight line running through the annual average temperature readings?
The linear regression line obtained from the statistical output is the "best-fitting" straight line that can be drawn through the data. It is designated by the equation Y = b1X + b0, where X represents the year, Y represents the predicted temperature anomaly, b1 is the slope of the line and b0 is the Y intercept of the line. Now you know.
While we can joke about individual station readings, in fact there may be something skewing the data. Berkley, California, for example, was a sleepy little town back in 1857, when the data starts. Since that time, it has grown into a much larger city, with many miles of asphalt roads operating as near-perfect "black body" heat radiators. This is known as the "urban heat island" effect. Many Climate Scientists now seriously doubt the accuracy of even the 20th century section of the hockey stick.
Anthony Watts, writing in ICECAP, gives us a typical example:
This NOAA USHCN climate station of record #415018 in Lampasas, Texas, was found to be tucked between a building and two parking lots, one with nearby vehicles. According to the surveyor, it is right next to the ACE Hardware store on the main street of town. While likely representative of the temperature for downtown Lampasas, one wonders how well it measures the climate of the region. In her survey, volunteer surveyor Julie K. Stacy noted the proximity to the building and parking, which will certainly affect Tmin ( the lowest temperature ) at night due to IR radiance. Daytime Tmax is likely affected by the large amount of asphalt and concrete in the area around the sensor.
You too can check the temperature history near your Grandpappy's home by accessing the Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) stations databank.
While Al Gore's Oscar and Nobel Prize winning film, An Inconvenient Truth, has serious students of climate change laughing their heads off, the British didn't think it was very funny. The British High Court has ruled that it cannot be shown to students without first having a disclaimer that it is "propaganda", instead of a "documentary". Those Brits just don't seem to have a sense of humor... or maybe they just think scaring little kids isn't an honorable pastime.
Nevertheless, the film makes a good outline for further discussion. Let's start with those poor little Polar Bears, taking their swim in the vast, empty Arctic ocean, just before they drown. Carole "CJ" Williams probably sums it up best, so we'll just quote her below..
Last March, global warming fanatic Al Gore used a picture of two polar bears purportedly stranded on melting ice off the coast of Alaska as a visual aide to support his claim that man-made global warming is doing great harm to Mother Earth. The one he chose, but didn’t offer to pay for right away, turned out to be a photo of a polar bear and her cub out doing what healthy, happy polar bears do on a wave-eroded chunk of ice not all that far from shore in the Beaufort Sea north of Barstow, Alaska. The picture, wrongly credited to Dan Crosbie, an ice observer specialist for the Canadian Ice Service, was actually taken by Amanda Byrd while she was on a university-related research cruise in August of 2004, a time of year when the fringe of the Arctic ice cap normally melts.
Byrd, a marine biology grad student at the time, was gathering zooplankton for a multi-year study of the Arctic Ocean. Crosbie, who was also on the trip, pilfered the polar bear photo from a shared computer onboard the Canadian icebreaker where Ms. Byrd downloaded her snapshots; he saved it in his personal file. Several months later, Crosbie, who is known as an avid photographer, gave the photo to the Canadian Ice Service, which then allowed Environment Canada to use it as an illustration for an online magazine.
Today that photo, with credit given to photographer Dan Crosbie and the Canadian Ice Service, can be found all over the Internet, generally with the caption “Two polar bears are stranded on a chunk of melting ice”.
It’s a hoax, folks. The bears, which can swim distances of 100 miles and more, weren’t stranded; they were merely taking a break and watching the boat go by when a lady snapped their picture.
On Feb. 2, 2007 Denis Simard, a representative of Environment Canada, distributed that lady’s photo to 7 media agencies, including the Associated Press, and timed it to coincide with the release of the United Nations’ major global warming report in Paris, France on Feb 3rd. When the press called Simard in Paris to ask if it was his picture and could they print it, he says, “I gave them permission because Dan said it was his picture.”
Al Gore saw the picture shortly thereafter and contrived to use it in a presentation about man-made global warming that he staged at a conference of human resource executives on March 22, 2007 in Toronto, Canada. With an enlarged version of Amanda Byrd’s polar bear picture on the screen behind him, Gore said, “Their habitat is melting… beautiful animals, literally being forced off the planet. They’re in trouble, got nowhere else to go.”Of course, after those words were spoken, the audience, being under the impression that polar bears are in imminent danger, gasped with concern and sympathy for the plight of the poor, pathetic polar bear population, whose diet, by the way, can include convenient humans, though attacks, like wolf-human attacks, are said to be rare.
According to Ms. Bryd, when she took the picture, the mother bear and its cub didn’t appear to be in any danger and Denis Simard seems to have backpedaled when quoted by Ontario’s National Post as saying that you “have to keep in mind that the bears aren’t in danger at all. It was, if you will, their playground for 15 minutes. You know what I mean? This is a perfect picture for climate change, in a way, because you have the impression they are in the middle of the ocean and they are going to die with a coke in their hands. But they were not that far from the coast, and it was possible for them to swim.”
That "Melting" Arctic Ice
At left is a screen shot from the Greenpeace web site, from a video which drips with the urgency of stopping the "melting" of the Arctic Ice Pack.
But look closely: Those are shear lines, where the ice has broken, not "melted". Melting does not occur in particular paths across the ice sheet, except when being zapped by aliens in UFO's.
Note closely the comment "more severe storms that wreak havoc on our home and communities". It has become most popular to blame global warming ( and man ) on virtually everything under the sun. And we mustn't forget to throw in a non-sequitur related to the "elderly and poor" - whose beachfront condos will soon be under water, no doubt.
But a new study released in Jan, 2008 by Chunzai Wang, a research oceanographer at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Miami Lab and the University of Miami, suggests that Global warming could actually reduce the number of hurricanes that hit the United States. Wong found a link between warming waters, especially in the Indian and Pacific oceans, to increased vertical wind shear in the Atlantic Ocean near the United States And wind shear - a change in wind speed or direction - makes it hard for hurricanes to form, strengthen and stay alive. His conclusion is, "Global warming may decrease the likelihood of hurricanes making landfall in the United States," His study is published in Geophysical Research Letters.
The global warming hysterians very typically use photos of perfectly normal weather phenomena to promote panic ( and presumably, donations to their cause ). Particularly popular are videos of calving glaciers, which break off and create quite a splash when they hit the water. But any 10-year-old knows that a calving glacier is a result of a growing, not receding glacier. A receding glacier, well... recedes...and calves no more.
To make a very long story much shorter, the warmer oceans have indeed been selectively melting some portions of the Arctic Ice Cap, but severe storms created large waves which broke up, rather than melted a substantial portion of the edges of the polar ice. This re-freezes in the winter. And you don't have to panic: the cold winter of 2007-2008 has returned the arctic ice cap to a handsome 13,000 000 square kilometers - which may melt again in normal summer melting cycle. There's tons of research going on in this field as well.
And about those "melting glaciers..."
Strange how our research turned up a completely different story. We found 50 glaciers are advancing in New Zealand, others are growing in Alaska, Switzerland, the Himalayas, and even our old friend, Mt. St. Helens is sprouting a brand new crater glacier that is advancing at 3 feet per year. And down south last September, NASA satellites showed the Antarctic Ice Field to be the largest it has ever been in the 30 years it has been observed by satellite (based on an analysis of 347 million radar altimeter measurements made by the European Space Agency's ERS-1 and ERS-2 satellites).
Al Gore tells us the Greenland ice cap is thinning, but he doesn't mention that a newly discovered volcanic "hot spot" may be a contributor, along with warming on the coast due to warmer waters coming up the gulf stream. In general, we found growing glaciers outpacing melting glaciers by a good margin. Nothing like cherry-picking an isolated example to create panic, Al.
Our Oceanography friends tell us that the actual measured rise in average ocean levels is on the order of 1.6 millimeters (about the width of a match ) annually. There are 25.4 mm in an inch, so in 25 years, the oceans might be up about 1.5 inches or so if the trend continues. In a thousand years, it will be up a whopping 64 inches, and everyone but the NBA is clearly in serious trouble.
Al Gore, on the other hand, recently said the problem is much worse than previously thought, and the Polar Ice Cap will be completely gone in 5 years.
We're going to hold you to that, Albert. We wonder if anyone has ever had a Nobel Prize taken back...
If you make a quick knee-jerk assumption, you'd probably conclude that something has to be melting somewhere to cause such a steady rise, however miniscule. But there's another principle of physics at work here called thermal expansion. When you heat an object, it gets bigger. Since the oceans have been slowly warming over the past few centuries, the volume of the oceans has also been increasing a tiny bit, and that can possibly account for most, if not all, of the 1 mm per year rise in the average sea level.
Old glaciers are a wonderful repository of historical information, because past samples of earth's atmosphere are locked up in them. Coral heads and Sargasso Sea sediments also leave Carbon 14 and Oxygen 18 clues to the past temperature of the earth. We all agree that the historical CO2 curves and the temperatures curves closely match each other. But when we look closely at the CO2 and temperature data found locked in ancient ice core samples, we find that increases in CO2 are actually following increases in temperature and that CO2 doesn't cause warming - warming causes CO2 to increase.
Summary - Exactly what have we learned here?
1. The "Greenhouse Effect" is a natural and valuable phenomenon, without which, the planet would be uninhabitable.
2. Modest Global Warming, at least up until 1998 when a cooling trend began, has been real.
3. CO2 is not a significant greenhouse gas; 95% of the contribution is due to Water Vapor.
4. Man's contribution to Greenhouse Gasses is relatively insignificant. We didn't cause the recent Global Warming and we cannot stop it.
5. Solar Activity appears to be the principal driver for Climate Change, accompanied by complex ocean currents which distribute the heat and control local weather systems.
6. CO2 is a useful trace gas in the atmosphere, and the planet would actually benefit by having more, not less of it, because it is not a driver for Global Warming and would enrich our vegetation, yielding better crops to feed the expanding population.
7. CO2 is not causing global warming, in fact, CO2 is lagging temperature change in all reliable datasets. The cart is not pulling the donkey, and the future cannot influence the past.
8. Nothing happening in the climate today is particularly unusual, and in fact has happened many times in the past and will likely happen again in the future.
9. The UN IPCC has corrupted the "reporting process" so badly, it makes the oil-for-food scandal look like someone stole some kid's lunch money. They do not follow the Scientific Method, and modify the science as needed to fit their predetermined conclusions. In empirical science, one does NOT write the conclusion first, then solicit "opinion" on the report, ignoring any opinion which does not fit their predetermined conclusion while falsifying data to support unrealistic models.
10. Polar Bear populations are not endangered, in fact current populations are healthy and at almost historic highs. The push to list them as endangered is an effort to gain political control of their habitat... particularly the North Slope oil fields.
11. There is no demonstrated causal relationship between hurricanes and/or tornadoes and global warming. This is sheer conjecture totally unsupported by any material science.
12. Observed glacial retreats in certain select areas have been going on for hundreds of years, and show no serious correlation to short-term swings in global temperatures.
13. Greenland is shown to be an island completely surrounded by water, not ice, in maps dating to the 14th century. There is active geothermal activity in the currently "melting" sections of Greenland.
14. The Antarctic Ice cover is currently the largest ever observed by satellite, and periodic ice shelf breakups are normal and correlate well with localized tectonic and geothermal activity along the Antarctic Peninsula.
15. The Global Warming Panic was triggered by an artifact of poor mathematics which has been thoroughly disproved. The panic is being deliberately nurtured by those who stand to gain both financially and politically from perpetuation of the hoax.
16. Scientists who "deny" the hoax are often threatened with loss of funding or even their jobs.
17. The correlation between solar activity and climate is now so strong that solar physicists are now seriously discussing the much greater danger of pending global cooling.
18. Biofuel hysteria is already having a disastrous effect on world food supplies and prices, and current technologies for biofuel production consume more energy than the fuels produce.
19. Global Warming Hysteria is potentially linked to a stress-induced mental disorder.
20. In short, there is no "climate crisis" of any kind at work on our planet.
How do we end the panic?
We've heard several anecdotal examples of local children becoming frightened after seeing Al Gore's movie, and maybe that's why we're so angry with him. To counter that, the British High Court has ruled that the film, if shown in their schools, must be preceded by a disclaimer that it is propaganda, not a documentary.. and a specific list of 9 distinct inaccuracies must be included in the warning. The 9 have since expanded to 35, and we heartily encourage you to examine each and every one by clicking HERE. From our point of view, we're watching a world gone mad, with everyone hustling to get a piece of the action. Politicians, radical environmentalists, and even mainstream businesses are scrambling to appear as "green" as they can - and reap of piece of the financial action sure to follow as funds are diverted from normal paths in a headlong race to save the planet. Some of this is actually good. We do need to cut down on our use of petroleum fuels, because they're becoming more and more expensive to find and recover - and as Will Rogers said, "They're making more people every day, but they ain't making any more dirt." Green is good, and we here at the Community Network try very hard to be good stewards of the environment. We recycle everything, drive 2nd-hand cars that get high gas mileage, and even had only one offspring - thus gaining one whole human lifetime of "carbon credits". It is overpopulation, after all, that is using up our resources at an ever-increasing rate. So the Great Global Warming Hoax could have a unintended positive side in energy conservation, and even Hitler made the trains run on time in Nazi Germany.
But is it wise to achieve a noble goal by deceit, information spin, bad science, dire predictions, censorship, and outright terrorism of our children? We think not.
We understand that those who jumped on the Global Bandwagon early on are now in a difficult position. Many are now searching for a way to back out quietly, without having their professional careers ruined. Others are continuing to miss-quote all the bad "science" on the subject, desperate to perpetuate what appears now to be only a myth. The Popular Journalists would starve if folks stopped reading their global hysteria books, and if folks stopped believing that Global Warming is man-made, they'll have to find some new themes on catastrophic events and sell us on the idea that we're to blame.
A recent U.S. Senate report quotes 400+ scientists who originally bought the global warming hoax, and are now confessing that they don't believe in it any more. Yes, Sen. Inhofe, who sponsored the report is a minority Republican on the U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works, and the liberal Democrats aren't about to believe anything he says, but we'll give him credit for being the first member of Congress to take a stand against the growing hysteria. It's a mess, and we're in it up to our cultural necks.
What is potentially more alarming, is that some of the early knee-jerk scientists that were so quick to jump on the climate panic bandwagon are now fighting desperately to save their careers by deliberately producing falsified data in a last-ditch effort to support their individual research and save their professional reputations. In our own research, we uncovered some "data" in which a CO2 curve from an ice core study was conveniently moved some 83 years down the time scale, so the desired "results" could be obtained. It's much too lengthy to discuss here, but if you'd like to delve into the subject in depth, we've posted the full paper by Prof. Zbigniew Jaworowski, Chairman of the Scientific Council of Central Laboratory for Radiological Protection in Warsaw, Poland.
Powerful political forces are also hard at work, attempting to preserve what we currently perceive as to be a myth by government-enforced "education". The State of California is attempting to require the myth to be taught in all of their public schools. Given the general level of science literacy of most public school teachers, particularly in the lower grades, we wonder from where the course materials would come. We're betting Greenpeace would be more than happy to supply the "information". We're also betting that Vermont could soon follow suit. We don't call ourselves the Green Mountain State for nothing.
The "debate" now seems to be settled down between two opposing political forces, commonly labeled "liberal" and "conservative", and two separate scientific "methods" of proving their points. Here they are, in a nutshell:
All of the empirical evidence now favors the "conservatives", who apply the laws of physics and chemistry to known data and conclude that anthropogenic global warming can't be happening. The coup de grace on the conservative side is the fact that CO2 is lagging temperature, and thus, they say, what happens next month can't possibly be affecting what is happening today. We tend to favor this logic.
The "liberals", on the other hand, have turned to computer modeling to "prove" the world is about to come to an end. Models can and in fact are being constructed which can prove anything you want. By tweaking the data, you can even make them come out with the opposite answer. "Modeling" is a perfect tool for perpetuating a scam like this, because they have absolutely no basis in factual science, yet are easy to sell to the unsuspecting public who thinks they are a part of legitimate research process. Unfortunately, there is much "model tweaking" (OK, "faking" is the better word ) being done by the Hysterians to "prove" the sky is falling. This is commonly known as Junk Science. We saw one climate model in which the temperature was held constant while the CO2 concentration was arbitrarily doubled, a brilliant erasure of the laws of physics.
The ultimate "judge" at present is the press. Fortunately for the Junk Scientists, the scientifically illiterate reporters and other popular journalists are quick to grab anything that calls for change, change, change ( does that have a familiar ring to it?). Since most of the press, ranging from our local folks to the New York Times, tend to showcase the Junk Science and suppress the empirical results, the equally science illiterate public gets only one side of the story, and they, in turn, quickly organize mass demonstrations calling for change, change, change. Presumably, if you march enough protest signs around the country, the Laws of Physics will bend to your will.
There's Big Bucks to be made promoting the hoax. Take a look at this clipping from a "green" directory site:
Great News!! We now have a 34 ACRE NURSERY SITE underway in Maine with a wood and solar heated greenhouse for tree seedling production. This will enable us to grow out millions of seedlings for transplanting to deforested areas across the north woods. If you would like to DIRECTLY OFFSET YOUR CARBON FOOTPRINT there is a PAYPAL DONATION button under the picture. ANY AMOUNT will help further the CO2 Reduction project!! Thanks!!
Editors Note: We have an even better offer: For every 10 bucks you send us, we will hold our breath for one full minute before exhaling the CO2 into the atmosphere. This "carbon offset" will make you feel good about driving your Hummer to the next Global Warming demonstration.
"Climate Science" has become the new gold mine for research funding. Any funding grant application today had better have the words "Global Warming" in it somewhere if you want to rise to the top of the pile when the money is handed out. Spending on "climate research" has skyrocketed from $175 million to $5 billion annually, and you'd better make sure your "results" support AGW, or the Leprechaun will get away and your pot of gold will vanish. "Peer Review" has generally become a laugh, as the Hoaxters now all review each other's work, and the cash register keeps ringing. A huge proportion of the "climate scientists" now at work weren't even interested in the subject a few years ago, and it's a bandwagon playing the new pop tune of "Ca-Ching, Ca-Ching". The Hoaxters now control many of the science journals, and are suppressing any honest research that exposes what John Coleman, founder of The Weather Channel, has called "the greatest scam in history". In writing this editorial, we of course automatically become "deniers", the heathens of physics who haven't converted to the new religion of global panic. It's now 100% honorable to fake your results, because keeping a paycheck is a most honorable pursuit. It's now critically important to keep the hoax afloat, for if the public ever finds out global warming is a purely natural phenomenon, the money will dry up in a heartbeat, because no government wants to waste money on something man can't possibly change.
Recently, several NASA scientists have resigned in protest of the bureaucrats who run the agency supporting Junk Science in order to secure more funding for climate-related satellite systems and other "research". And scientists who speak out too loudly against the hoax have actually been fired for crossing paths with the politicians promoting Junk Science, as recently happened to University of Washington climate scientist Mark Albright, who was dismissed from his position as associate state climatologist, just weeks after exposing false claims of shrinking glaciers in the Cascade Mountains. Seems Seattle Mayor Greg Nickels claimed the Cascade glaciers were melting, and Albright, in charge of the glacier studies, said they weren't. Nickels had enough clout to get Albright bounced from his job.
Our public schools seem to be highly infected with what the serious climate scientists are now calling the new "religious cult" of anthropogenic global warming hysteria. No longer are teachers inviting their students to explore climate change - now they are being instructed to "make a nice poster showing how you can stop global warming". This appears to be primarily an American phenomenon. Graduate schools in technology report their classes are mostly filled with foreign students, and U.S. Public High School students are the most science and mathematics illiterate of all developed nations. "Education" majors ( our future teachers ) have the lowest SAT scores of any college major so we are stuck in a catch 22 situation where the least qualified to teach anyone about anything are churning out mostly scientifically illiterate students who then go off to college and emerge with thousands of degrees in Art History with no job in their field waiting for them when they graduate.
Let's all lie to our children while we're at it The Down-To-Earth Guide to Global Warming by Laurie David and Cambria Gordon.
This children's book "explains" the Global Warming Hoax to English-speaking children everywhere. Here's a textbook case ( pun intended ) of how to pull the wool over their eyes.
Simply insert a fraudulent graph clearly showing Climate Temperature to be following CO2 levels, in the same manner as Al Gore. This is easily done by swapping the actual CO2 and Temperature graphs, as shown below.
Then finish with the statement:
"What makes this graph so amazing is that by connecting rising CO2 to rising temperature scientists have discovered the link between greenhouse-gas pollution and global warming.”
Of course, the actual data shows just the opposite - that CO2 lags, not leads temperature, and thus "proving" just the opposite.
Don't worry, the parents aren't smart enough to detect the lie, either.
The battle now seems to have settled down as a war between two major information sources. The "mainstream media" who controls the printed word on paper ( such as the book above ) and the talking heads on TV are generally supporting the Junk Science. The Internet - last bastion of free speech and the only significant outlet for empirical science, is slowly gaining ground exposing the scam, but so far it's pretty much an imbalanced situation, since the Junk Scientists also know how to build web sites and blogs and are doing their best to spread the panic in that media as well.
For example Richard S. Lindzen, in his paper at the 2005 Yale Center for Globalization conference clearly points to one particular pro-hoax web site calling itself "Real Climate" which tells us that it is all about "climate science from climate scientists", featuring among others, the now universally discredited work of Michael Mann and others who were too quick to become his overnight followers. The site isn't actually run by "scientists", it's actually run by Environmental Media Services, which specializes in spreading environmental junk science on behalf of numerous clients who stand to financially benefit from scare tactics through environmental fear mongering. Lindzen says, "This website appears to constitute a support center for global warming believers, wherein any criticism of global warming is given an answer that, however implausible, is then repeated by the reassured believers. A collection of stock responses for believers is also featured on Gristmill, where the Popular Journalists and mainstream media can quickly obtain a handbook for perpetuating the scam, and become instant experts on the spot.
In the end, time will be the final judge. If the ice caps don't melt in our lifetimes ( or in 5 years, as Al Gore is predicting ) then future historians are going to have a rich trove of material on how the entire world went bonkers over a global temperature shift of a few tenths of a degree attributed to our "carbon footprint". If New York floods during the last game of the World Series, then the Computer Modeling has won out over the Laws of Physics and at least we'll be able to make new models which will cure cancer, end starvation, stop wars, and lower our taxes all at the same time.
Most of the best research has been performed in the last 3 years, and strongly supports the notion that CO2 plays little role in global warming. You will probably not be allowed to find this out, except in places like this. The IPCC policy writers were actually instructed to ignore the most recent and likely best information in their earlier reports to the world's governments, and of course the Popular Journalists continue to quote the older, now debunked "science" that led to the panic in the first place. It has turned real nasty, and it is our strong feeling that much skullduggery is afoot.
One of the hallmarks of American politics is to tell a lie often enough until it magically becomes the truth. The corruption of the UN IPCC would make another long treatise in itself, but we won't go there in this particular piece, because we don't want to scare our children into thinking that scandals in the UN were making unwitting liars out of their teachers. Remember, the UN IPCC reports are the very foundation of the Global Warming Hysterians' arguments. That's where they get the "all the world's climate scientists now agree" baloney. Scientists who disagree with the policy writers ( who are largely bureaucrats appointed by their own governments ) are ignored in the reports, a well known phenomenon. And several IPCC scientists are currently raising Cain with the IPCC policy writers to stop using their name as "agreeing" with the Junk Science IPCC reports. ( The IPCC claims that all of their member scientists and contributors approve of their phony reports, and as best we can determine at the present time, a majority probably does not).
Alec Rawls probably sums up the IPCC corruption best: "What I found interesting in the IPCC report is how blatant the statistical fraud is, omitting the competing explanation from the models completely, while pretending that they are using their models to distinguish between anthropogenic and natural warming. These people are going to hang on to their power grab until the bitter end."
And we might be wrong. We're pledged to good science, without any political or environmental agenda producing hasty conclusions, and this ball game is still in play. We've done an enormous amount of homework, and reached a preliminary opinion on the matter, and are intent on remaining politically independent in this regard. If we're wrong, delaying immediate action will only hasten doomsday. If we're right, then nature will take its course as it always has, and normal life will go on by adapting to climate change, rather than freaking out over a pending climate catastrophe. That's what the Scientists' letter to the U.N. was all about.
What can you do to further expose this Global Hoax seemingly being spread to promote radical political and environmental issues? You could start by sending the URL of this page to your friends and other "regular" folks who have no environmental ax to grind and are only seeking some realistic appraisal of the situation. This article has now been "peer reviewed" by dozens of highly qualified scientists in fields related to climate change, and there has been no fault found in our physics, chemistry, or mathematics to date. It has already "gone viral" world-wide, and has been read in 83 foreign countries at last check.
We inviteComments, but flames and rants and other childish stuff will be deleted and you won't even get the courtesy of a reply. We do welcome comment from intelligent folk who have something original to say, but please don't bombard us with cut-and-paste cherry-picking from climate hysteria sites on the internet, because trust us, we've already read all that.
We admire your tenacity in reading this all the way to the end.
James A. Peden, Editor http://www.middlebury.net/op-ed/global-warming-01.html