Federal Forecast predicts Paul, Obama will come out on top
January 07, 2008 3:14 PM
PORTSMOUTH — The results are in and the latest poll shows Republican Ron Paul and Democrat Barack Obama will win the New Hampshire Primary by nearly 30 points. Well, it’s not exactly a formal poll, but Leonard Seagren, co-owner of Federal Cigar, claims the “Federal Forecast” — the matchbook poll held at the Ladd Street smoke shop, which is a 24-year-old Seacoast tradition — has an 80 percent success ratio. The poll, which took place from Monday to Sunday, reflected statewide polls in some ways and greatly differed in others.
Long-shot Paul won the Republican nomination in New Hampshire with 31 percent. He was follows by John McCain (27 percent), Rudy Giuliani (21 percent), Mike Huckabee (10 percent), Mitt Romney (8 percent), Fred Thompson (2 percent) and Duncan Hunter (no votes). The Democrat results showed Obama, a known smoker, would win easily with 46 percent of the votes. The big surprise came from Dennis Kucinich, who tied for second with John Edwards, at 17 percent support — both beating out Hillary Clinton’s 13 percent. They were followed by Joe Biden (4 percent) and Chris Dodd (3 percent), who have dropped out of the race since the poll started. Bill Richardson brought up the rear at 1 percent. In total 120 people voted with 60 percent Democrats and 40 percent voting for a Republican, which were the most surprising numbers to Seagren. “Our Seacoast people are very liberal so I am surprised at the ratio,” said Seagren. “That’s just my opinion, but typically Portsmouth has demonstrated a liberal bend.” In the 2000 and 2004 primaries, the poll missed the winner just once with Seacoast residents voting for Vermont Gov. Howard Dean over Sen. John Kerry in 2004. “Overall, I’m very happy with the results,” said Seagren.