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Author Topic: Energy Armageddon...One of my favorite Snake God Operations....  (Read 794 times)
s0cks
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« on: January 05, 2008, 03:24:07 PM »


Big Oil Profits Falling Not Rising:
BP: http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/10/23/business/bp.php
Exxon: http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/11/01/bloomberg/bxexxon.php
Shell: http://www.cnbc.com/id/21465834/
Exxon & ConocoPhilips: http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/nov2007/db2007111_990595.htm

Big Oil says Peak Oil is a Lie
Shell: http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=16719
Exxon & Saudi Aramco: http://www.planetizen.com/node/21240

I will admit more and more oil CEO's are admitting to some form of peak oil. Such as the era of easy oil is over and that half the oil is gone. These include BP, ConocoPhillips, Total, and Chevron. However they do not appear to admit this openly and can only be found usually on alternative news sites.

Where is all the new Oil?
In Alex Jone's article and radio show regarding peak oil he fails to give us links to all the "major" oil finds quoted to have while talking about the subject on his show. The closing of a Shell refinary does not justify peak oil is a lie. Refinaries BUY oil, and closing such said refinary has no impact on oil production. The oil destined for that refinary is easily swallowed up by others (possibly in places such as China). Overall oil demand is still rising (and currently its still being supplied).

Types of Oil
Some people do not seem to understand on here that the type of oil GREATLY impacts how fast you can get at it, even if at all!? Imagine sweet crude as water, easy to get at, like under the sands of the middle east. For every 1 barrell of oil energy you can extract upto 100 barrels. Heavy crude is like honey compared to water and is extremely hard to extract if at all viable. 1 barrel of oil energy may only get you 5 barrels of heavy crude.

Oil sands is extremely energy instensive. Loading huge amounts of sand onto massive trucks, and using large amounts of fresh water and natural gas to extract the oil. For every 1 barrel of oil energy you can only get 2 to 3 barrels out. Basically this is 30 to 50 times more expensive than light sweet crude oil.

Oil shale is not even oil. It is hydrocarbons caught in shale or rock. The process to extract has not even been developed. In practice it would require huge amounts of energy (probably nuclear) and massive amounts of fresh water.

Some links:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heavy_crude_oil
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_sands
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_shale

Oil Has Already Peaked
Production of all liquid fuels (including ethanol, biofules, etc..) peaked in July 2006. We have yet to have produced as much liquid fuel as we did back then.

http://www.theoildrum.com/uploads/28/PU200610_Fig4_small.png

Graph too big for forum.

Peak Oil Discoveries - 1960s
We discovered the most oil in the 1960's. Now, for every 6 or more barrels of oil we consume we only find 1 new one. Sustainable?



Is Peak Oil Such a Bad Thing?
A lot of people warning us of peak oil are suggesting favourable outcomes for the human race post-peak. Globalization will die off, and while you may not be able to travel abroad or buy products from China there will be a much higher sense of local community and sharing. Its inevitable that unless a magic new source of energy is found (that can replace oil) that localization will play a big role. We are now so distant with one another and so out of touch with nature that a reunion would not be so bad. We now see trees, rainforests, wild animals as alien to our world and way of life. We look at them through glass at the zoo or sanctuary and marvel at it in pictures. We give not a second thought (most of the time) to the massive destruction of nature and wildlife to put up new suburban areas (ironically named after what they destroy). We basically understand food as growing in our supermarkets. How many of you can actually grow veg?

Anyway. I'll leave you with this graph to reflect on (projected energy consumption since year 0):

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« Reply #1 on: January 05, 2008, 09:03:42 PM »

This is evidence?
Exxon Mobil, the world's largest oil company, said Thursday that quarterly profit unexpectedly dropped the most in three years because of reduced gasoline output and prices. 
http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/11/01/bloomberg/bxexxon.php

Gasoline output is low because these jerks haven't allowed a new refinery to be built in 30 years.
http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/0921/p11s02-usec.html
In 1981, the US had 324 refineries with a total capacity of 18.6 million barrels per day, the Department of Energy reports. Today, there are just 132 oil refineries with a capacity of 16.8 million b.p.d., according to Oil and Gas Journal, a trade publication

And I guarantee their ANNUAL profit didn't decrease.
They can make it look that way, I'm sure.  But consider this...In the Christian Science Monitor article I just quoted they also say this...

The current refinery squeeze has been building for years. For the past two decades, deregulation and low profits have combined to push the industry into consolidation. Partly because of environmental regulations, it was cheaper to expand existing refineries than to build new ones.

Low profits??? Look at how they rewarded themselves for low profits between 2001 and 2005:

The top 15 U.S. Oil Barons are paid 281 percent of the average CEO
compensation in comparably sized businesses.
The top 15 U.S. Oil
CEOs were paid an average of $32.7 million in 2005 while the average
compensation for CEOs of large U.S. firms in all industries was
$11.6 million.1

The top 15 Petroleum Profiteers got an average raise of 50.2 percent
of their 2004 pay packages
. Meanwhile, the annualized average hourly
wage of production workers in the oil and gas industry increased by
only 4.1 percent from their 2004 levels.2

Top three highest paid U.S. oil chieftains in 2005:
#1 William Greehey (Valero Energy) = $95.2 million
#2 Ray R. Irani (Occidential Petroleum) = $84.0 million
#3 Lee Raymond (outgoing CEO of ExxonMobil) = $69.7 million
And the lowest paid: Chad Deaton, CEO of Baker Hughes = $6.6
million

Big Oil isn't lying when they call Peak Oil a lie...
They should know, they told the lie first...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M._King_Hubbert
Marion King Hubbert (October 5, 1903 – October 11, 1989) was a geoscientist who worked at the Shell research lab in Houston, Texas. He made several important contributions to geology and geophysics, most notably the Hubbert curve and Hubbert peak theory (or peak oil), with important political ramifications. He was often referred to as "M. King Hubbert" or "King Hubbert".

But, if you want to take their word for it, on Peak Oil, profit margins, or whatever else spews forth from them or the media they own, go right ahead...
Just remember that this guy wasn't crooked enough to survive in the oil industry...


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s0cks
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« Reply #2 on: January 05, 2008, 09:31:10 PM »

Gasoline output is low because these jerks haven't allowed a new refinery to be built in 30 years.
http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/0921/p11s02-usec.html
In 1981, the US had 324 refineries with a total capacity of 18.6 million barrels per day, the Department of Energy reports. Today, there are just 132 oil refineries with a capacity of 16.8 million b.p.d., according to Oil and Gas Journal, a trade publication

I still don't see how this is relevant? Oil refinaries are NOT pumping at 100% capacity. Close to it, yes... but not 100%. If they built a new oil refinary where would the oil come from? US stock inventories? They have been falling for most of the year without any sign of replenishing. There is simply not enough oil to go round. And if there were, it is very very tight.

Infact gasoline stockpiles have INCREASED recently. There is plenty of refined product at the moment. Do you have forecourts closing because they ran out of gas? The problem is not products, its crude oil.

Quote
The current refinery squeeze has been building for years. For the past two decades, deregulation and low profits have combined to push the industry into consolidation. Partly because of environmental regulations, it was cheaper to expand existing refineries than to build new ones.

The whole oil infrastructure is majorly outdated. Refineries and drilling rigs are well beyond their use-by date. There is massive maintanence just to keep them going. The oil workforce is in rapid decline also. The average age of oil exectives/managers is well over 50. Its literally crumbling away.

Quote
Low profits??? Look at how they rewarded themselves for low profits between 2001 and 2005:

I don't see how this is relavent. What each CEO gets paid doesn't dipict how much oil is in the ground. For example, shell makes around $3million an hour. Of course the CEO's are gonna get HUGE pay packets. The companies are rolling in it, even if their profits are down. This is just speculation on your half. It sounds like jelousy?

Quote
Marion King Hubbert (October 5, 1903 – October 11, 1989) was a geoscientist who worked at the Shell research lab in Houston, Texas. He made several important contributions to geology and geophysics, most notably the Hubbert curve and Hubbert peak theory (or peak oil), with important political ramifications. He was often referred to as "M. King Hubbert" or "King Hubbert".

Yes he worked for Shell. But Shell begged him not to go public. Infact, if I recall correcty he told them he was going to go public 5mins before, so they couldn't stop him. He was laughed at and nobody believed him, not until the USA did actually peak.

I have still not seen any proof of a peak oil scam, just speculation and what people WANT to believe. Well the facts and figures don't agree. Its a finite resource, it HAS to peak and run out if we keep pumping. 85million barrels a DAY the world uses. 30billion a year. How long do you really think we can keep that up?
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« Reply #3 on: January 05, 2008, 11:03:10 PM »

I still don't see how this is relevant? Oil refinaries are NOT pumping at 100% capacity. Close to it, yes... but not 100%. If they built a new oil refinary where would the oil come from? US stock inventories? They have been falling for most of the year without any sign of replenishing. There is simply not enough oil to go round. And if there were, it is very very tight.

Infact gasoline stockpiles have INCREASED recently. There is plenty of refined product at the moment. Do you have forecourts closing because they ran out of gas? The problem is not products, its crude oil.


So, there is a surplus of gasoline, but the price hasn't gone down?  They are putting out 2 million less barrels of gasoline per day than they were in 1981...But there is now an increase in stockpiles, according to you...I guess we're using less?  You cited that article as proof that Exxon's profits were going down...The article said they went down for the quarter due to a decrease in "gasoline output".  Read your links...


The whole oil infrastructure is majorly outdated. Refineries and drilling rigs are well beyond their use-by date. There is massive maintanence just to keep them going. The oil workforce is in rapid decline also. The average age of oil exectives/managers is well over 50. Its literally crumbling away.

So, they made huge profits and gave themselves huge bonuses but didn't bother to maintain their equipment?  I guess they didn't realize that things become dated due to advance in technology. 

I don't see how this is relavent. What each CEO gets paid doesn't dipict how much oil is in the ground. For example, shell makes around $3million an hour. Of course the CEO's are gonna get HUGE pay packets. The companies are rolling in it, even if their profits are down. This is just speculation on your half. It sounds like jelousy?


Well, they(and you) claim that the infrastructure has gone to shit because of low profits and not enough regulation(Nobody told us to update our infrastructure).  By your own admission "There is massive maintanence just to keep them going".  Well, maybe they shouldn't have given themselves a raise bigger than the CEO's of other industries(who practice equipment maintenance and turnover). 

On the day we first drew crude from the ground, there was less in the ground than the week before.  Will it run out?  Not likely, unless we are stupid enough to not find an alternative.  You want me to believe this peak oil theory but yet the price of oil wasn't going up significantly for twenty years.  It has skyrocketed since 2001...Not because experts came out and said "There is less oil!  There will always be less oil!" No, it went up because of 9/11.  No oil fields have burnt, no tankers have sank, and no refineries have been disabled by terrorists.  The price went up because everyone expected it.  The media came out and said "We'll pay for this at the pump..."  And we have.  Now they are priming us for another boost..."Oooh, look out folks it's running out, less supply means higher prices"...Duhh, okay, as long as I can keep driving. 

http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20070906/oil-commodities-opec_2.htm
In this article OPEC says that they may increase pumping by "up to 1 million barrels per day (bpd) later in 2007, perhaps in December, should demand prove robust and inventories fall."  (So, we haven't reached the peak output, and they don't sound worried that the resource is dwindling.)

OPEC president says no shortage of oil
By Emma Graham-harrison
Posted 06 September 2007 @ 08:50 am EST

DALIAN, China - The oil market is well balanced and there is no shortage of crude, OPEC's president said on Thursday, ahead of a meeting of the producer group next week that is expected to maintain supply curbs.

"I think the market is very well balanced... There is no shortage whatsoever of oil supplies," Mohammed bin Dhaen al-Hamli, who is also oil minister of the United Arab Emirates, told Reuters.

In the run up to the September 11 gathering, several members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) have said they see no need to boost supply, despite calls by consumer nations for an increase that could help bring down high prices.

Hamli emphasized a shortage of skilled labor and bottlenecks in the refinery sector as key factors in high oil prices that were beyond producer nations' control. (Is that true considering they were refining more barrels per day a quarter century ago?)


http://business.maktoob.com/News-20070423131528-OPEC_chief_says_no_need_for_oil_output_hike.aspx

OPEC chief says no need for oil output hike
AFP Wed, 14 Nov 2007 11:54 PM - Dubai Time

OPEC chief Abdallah al-Badri on Wednesday rejected US calls for increased oil output to cool record prices, saying the market is already well supplied...US Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman on Tuesday called on OPEC, which supplies 40 percent of the world's oil, to help cool record prices by raising output.

"I do believe there is a lack of willingness to supply the market... It is contributing to the price environment," he told reporters on the sidelines of an energy conference in Rome.

The OPEC chief said the cartel will not allow any shortage of supply to occur and called on the United States to help in resolving its refinery bottlenecks which are contributing to the price hike.

"We don't want to see any shortage in supply... If there is a shortage, we will watch it and we want to see if we can satisfy this shortage," said Badri, adding that OPEC does not favour a high price for oil.

He said OPEC members are investing 150 billion dollars on 120 projects to raise their capacity by five million barrels a day in 2015.(Because it is running out soon  Huh)

The 12-member cartel plans to increase its capacity by 19 million barrels in 2030, he said.

Oil prices rose sharply to close to 100 dollars a barrel last week over concerns of tight supplies, geopolitical tensions and a decline in US oil inventories
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« Reply #4 on: January 06, 2008, 01:36:37 AM »

That first graph is based on the numbers of only one company(ExxonMobil) in 2002.  Also, they admit to changing the numbers when they say "revisions backdated" and, for some reason, they have "rounded with a three year moving average".  Doesn't sound like creative accounting to me.  Nothing suspicious about that graph, it says exactly what will make Exxon the most money...low supply with an already established high demand...

The second one you left for me to "reflect on"...This is all that comes to mind:


Energy consumption measured in what units?  2200 is shaping up to be a shitty year, I guess.  Come back with some real info.  Links to experts and charts that aren't funded by the oil industry.  And less wiki-links unless it is a person...  My hope, though, is that you won't spend as much time as I have figuring out that this is a big scam.  Good luck.  Wink
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