Global Forecast “Future of Civilizations” for 2050
http://www.library.newparadigm.ru/files/b1e.pdfGlobal Forecast “Future of Civilizations”
for 2050
Part 9
The Future of Civilizations and
Strategy of Civilizational Partnership
(abridged version)
Under the editorship of Yu. V. Yakovets
B.N. Kuzyk
N.S. Bekturganov
Moscow, SKII
2009
The Future of Civilizations and Strategy of Civilizational Partnership. Part 9 of the Global Forecast “Future of Civilizations” for 2050. Under the editorship of Yu.V. Yakovets, B.N. Kuzyk, N.S. Bekturganov. M: SKII,2009, 600 p.
The closing, overall part of the global forecast “Future of Civilizations” for 2050 worked out by the Russian and Kazakhstan scientists powered by the RF Ministry of Foreign Affairs and President of the Republic of Kazakhstan summarizes the results of researches performed in 2007-2009 and validates recommendations for a long-term partnership strategy of civilizations.
It addresses the contents and specifics of the methodology for integral global macro forecasting elaborated by the Russian scientists, explores the essence of a cluster of global crises of the beginning of the 21st century and the outlooks for recovery based on the civilizational revolution of the 21st century. It addresses the prospects for overcoming the global energy-ecological crisis on the path of the establishment of the energy-ecological mode of production and consumption, problems of socio- demographic dynamics of civilizations and a growing migration, priorities of the global technological revolution and the establishment of the sixth technological order, formation of the integral economic system and transformation of globalization, prospects of the formation of the multi-polar world order based on partnership of civilizations and transition to the integral socio-cultural system. The outputs of the overall macro economic estimations based on macro models, geo-civilizational and strategic matrix are given.
Much focus is laid on the validation of recommendations for the formation, based on the forecast, of a long-term strategy of partnership of civilizations, allowing the implementation of the innovative-breakthrough of scenario of dynamics of civilizations.
The ninth part of the Global Forecast is envisaged for discussion at the 3rd Civilizational Forum in Almaty on 18 September 2009 and for presentation at the roundtable session within the 64th session of the UN General Assembly in October 2009.
© Yu.V. Yakovets, 2009
© B.N. Kuzyk, 2009
© N.S. Beketurganov, 2009
© Authors of the sections, 2009
© Yu.V. Dorovskaya as Translator, 2009
© The Pitirim Sorokin – Nikolai Kondratieff International Institute, 2009 Page 3
Table of Contents of Rissian Edition
Nursultan Nazyrbaev
The time of Global Strategies Decisions
Foreword. The World of Civilizations under Transformation (in english vershion)
Chapter 1. The Theory of Foresight and Methodology of Global Civilizational Forecasting
1.1. The Theory of Foresight: a Civilizational Aspect
1.2. Specifics and Contents of the Global Civilizational Forecast
1.3. A Civilizational Approach in Global Forecasting
1.4. Validation of Scenarios for Dynamics of Civilizations in a Long-term Prospect
1.5. Modeling of Dynamics of Civilizations
Chapter 2. Tendencies, Crisis Situation and Scenarios of Dynamics of Civilizations
2.1. A Watershed Period in Civilizational Dynamics
2.2. The Reverse of Tendencies in Socio-Demographic Dynamics
2.3. The Global Energy-Ecological Crisis and Scenarios for the Establishment of a Noospheric Civilization2.4. Tendencies and Critical Situations in Technological Dynamics of Civilizations
2.5. Global and Critical Situations in Economic Dynamics of Civilizations
2.6. Critical Situations in Geopolitical Dynamics
2.7. Tendencies, Critical Situations and Scenarios of Socio-Cultural Dynamics of Civilizations
Chapter 3. Energy-Ecological Future of Civilizations
3.1. The Global Energy-Ecological Crises
3.2. The Prospects for Supply with Resources and Improvement in Efficiency of Fossil Fuel Use
3.3. The Outlooks for Development of Alternative Energy
3.4. Problems and Prospects for Global Ecological Dynamics
3.5. The Outlooks for Development of the World Energy Market
3.6. The Forecast Estimations of Dynamics of Energy-Ecological Efficiency of Civilizations
Chapter 4. The Forecast of Socio-Demographic Dynamics of Civilizations
4.1. The Global Socio-Demographic Crisis, Its Forms and Effect
4.2. A Long-term Dynamics of Population Forecast
4.3. Demographic Tendencies of Dynamics of Civilizations in the First Half of the 21st Century
4.4. Problems and Prospects of Migration: a Civilizational Aspect
4.5. Labor Resources of Civilizations and Their Efficient Use
4.6. A Gender Factor of Dynamics of Civilizations
4.7. Problems and Prospects for Dynamics of International Migration
Chapter 5. The Global Technological Revolution and Outlooks for Innovative-Technological Dynamics of Civilizations
5.1. The Global Technological Crisis and Critical Situations in the Technological Dynamics of Civilizations
5.2. The Global Technological Revolution and Scenarios for Technological Dynamics of Civilizations in the First Half of the 21st Century
5.3. Taking Account of a Change of Technological Orders in the Implementation of the Strategic Breakthrough
5.4. Technologies of the next Kondratieff Cycle (in english vershion)
Chapter 6. Economic Dynamics of Civilizations and Transformation of Globalization
6.1. The Decline of the Industrial Economic System
6.2. A Forecast of Structural Transformation of Economy of Civilizations
6.3. The Outlooks for Transformation of Globalization
Chapter 7. The Outlooks for Geopolitical Dynamics and Interaction of Civilizations
7.1. The Establishment of the Multipolar World Order Based on Partnership of Civilizations
7.2. Diversity of Civilizations, Globalization Processes
7.3. The Prospects of Geopolitical Shifts and Interaction of Civilizations
7.4. New Institutes of Interaction of Civilizations
7.5. Global Rating of Integral Power of the Leading Countries and Civilizations
7.6. A Forecast of the Integral Power and Geopolitical Influence of Civilizations
Chapter 8. A Socio-Cultural Future of Civilizations
8.1. A Theoretical Framework of Socio-Cultural Dynamics of Civilizations
8.2. Transformation of a Socio-Cultural Sphere
8.3. The Establishment of a Knowledge-Based Society
8.4. The Revival of Humanistically Noospheric Ethics
8.5. The Prospects of Dialogue and Partnership of Civilizations in the Socio-Cultural Sphere
Chapter 9. Modeling of Dynamics of Civilizations
9.1. Forecast Estimations of Dynamics of Civilizations Based on Logistical Models (in english vershion)
9.2. The Forecast Balance of Manpower Resources of Civilizations
9.3. The Numerical Computation and the Forecast of the Structure of the Global Civilization (in english vershion)
Chapter 10. Recommendations for a Long-term Strategy of Partnership among Civilizations (in english vershion)
10.1. Experience in the Formulation and Implementation of the Global Strategy
10.2. A Need and Specifics of the Global Strategy of Partnership among Civilizations
10.3. The Nodal Directions of Strategic Partnership of Civilizations
10.4. Institutes and Mechanisms for Partnership of Civilizations
10.5. The Strategy of the Innovative Renewal of the Eurasian Civilization and Integration in the CIS Space
Afterword. The Global Forecast is Done; the Global Strategy is Required (in english vershion)
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