Personal Psycho-Social Web-Derived DNA And Socio-cybernetic Decision-Making

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Personal Psycho-Social Web-Derived DNA
And Socio-cybernetic Decision-Making


Noam Lemelshtrich Latar, PhD Senior Burda Scholar
Hubert Burda Center for Innovative Communications
Ben-Gurion University
February 2004

 

Table of Contents
 
•   Abstract
•   Introduction
•   Information Flow Model - from Digitization to Data Mining to Cybernetic Decision-Making
•   Digital Coding of Every Aspect of Human Activity
•   Digital convergence
•   Digitization of Music
•   Digitization of Visual Images
•   Total Information Awareness
•   Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery
•   Data Mining Tools
•   Neural Networks
•   Data Mining in Retail -an example
•   Social Consequences of data mining
•   Data Bases traded as Commodities
•   Social Cybernetic Decision Making
•   The Principles of Cybernetics
•   Cybernetic Theory of Social Development
•   The Social System Model
•   Cybernetic Assumptions Regarding Human Behavior
•   The Need to Rethink Social Indicators
•   Classic Indicators versus New Indicators
•   Education Example
•   Cognitive Enhancement Example
•   The Need for Continuous Social Monitoring of the Cybernetic Process
•   Major Issues
•   Kahneman-Tversky Revisited
•   Weblining Stereotypes



Abstract

A new convergence process is taking place that will dramatically affect every aspect of human life.  This convergence process results from the adoption of digitization in almost every form of human activity.  Digitization creates a ‘unified language’ of human behavior that allows phenomena to be examined on an unprecedented scale using computers.  When advanced data mining procedures are applied to these activities as a whole using cutting edge technologies that enable analysis of huge quantities of information, behavioral patterns emerge from a myriad of mundane activities.

Such patterns will allow monitors – be they social scientists, marketing experts or political leaders – to arrive at an individualized form of what this paper labels personal ‘psycho- social DNA’ that will allow those who possess this knowledge to scientifically predict human behavior with a high degree of accuracy – down to the level of the individual, based on personal cognitive and other psychological traits expressed in the ‘digital footprints’ we leave behind with every purchase we make, every website we visit, every event we attend, every group we belong to.  The prospect of our psycho-social DNA being manipulated with the ‘right stimuli’ to express desired behavior threatens to usher in a new era of behavioral control, one already observes in attempts to use subliminal messages planted in TV programs…only on a much more effective and focused level.  

The integration of three technologies – mass digitization, mass data mining and automated mass data processing – holds the potential to revolutionize social science and psychological research with unlimited ‘sample groups’ that in essence can monitor and ‘test’ human behavior in the field on an unheard of scale by ‘plugging into our behavior’, testing almost unlimited variables, without our consent.

While these capabilities serve to deepen our knowledge and understanding of the human psyche, they also carry the frightening prospect of vested interests – be they political groups or commercial interests – galvanizing this knowledge to control behavior by ‘manipulating’ our individual psycho-social DNA (or shared components of it) much in the manner that scientists now engage in gene therapy.  Google’s report of the ‘public mood’ based on analyzing the focus of 200 million Google ‘search’ queries per day in 97 languages (and its value for stock brokers and others), and Amazon’s ‘personal data bases’ (which seeks to stimulate sales with custom tailored pop-up ads by monitoring surfers’ previous behavior) only hint of what is in store.  In fact, the potential is not ‘more of the same’ but ‘an entirely new ball game’.  
 
The synergy of mass digitization, mass data mining and automatic mass data processing are creating a new field of endeavor:  cybernetic decision-making in the social realm.  Because the volume of information flow is too great for the human brain to handle, new information systems almost dictate the introduction of ‘cybernetic decision-making’ in the social sphere.  This is occurring in the operation of countless human organizations and associations – public or private, who due to their own growing complexity and information overload, will allow their systems to govern themselves much in the way an air conditioner ‘behaves’ or industrial chemical processes works.  

Cybernetic decision-making raises not only the issue of behavior control but also how societies as a whole will be shaped by the growing empowerment of machines to ‘make decisions for us’?  The prospect of decoding of our psycho-social DNA and the growing use of cybernetic decision-making in the social realm raise serious social, political, legal and ethical issues, which it is imperative to identify and discuss.  While many others have written about the ramifications of each of the three technologies (digitations, data mining automation of decision-making) separately, this paper seeks to examine the ramifications to the social system when the three are harnessed together.  It also calls for taking the debate out of the hands of the technical community and putting it on the public agenda.
  
It is already clear that the power and potential created is far greater than its composite parts.  One of the fundamental questions that needs to be addressed is—What is the price of enhanced efficiency when one takes cybernetics out of the natural sciences where phenomena are rigid replicable laws and apply them to the provinces of the ‘softer’ social sciences? Machines by their very structure are committed to the ‘status quo’ by which they are programmed, and will tend to ignore or block demands for social change.  

The paper at hand presents a series of theoretical visual paradigms of this emerging process (the “3-D Process, henceforth) and how it operates – the flow of information, the creation of psycho-social DNA through data mining and its conversion into knowledge in the form of a myriad of new social indicators that make analysis possible and cybernetic decision- making necessary.  The presentation is supported by concrete examples of how each of these technologies operates today and what can be expected in the foreseeable future.  

The 3-D Process model is designed to serve as the foundation and as a catalyst for much-needed debate of this trend and how it should be handled by enlightened societies.  

Introduction

The proliferation of digital coding of all aspects of human behavior is a watershed event.  Beyond the enhanced performance digital systems bring – from the sharpness of TV images and exquisite audio quality of CDs to electronic banking and e-commerce, instant access and sharing of information anywhere-anytime – digitization is creating a ‘universal language’ of almost all phenomena that can be observed and analyzed on an entirely new level, thanks to technological progress:  the first – connectivity and conductivity of communication networks; the second – the exponential growth of data bases; the third – the constantly growing computing capacity of computers to store and ‘mine’ unlimited amounts of data.  When combined, these developments are making it possible to pinpoint patterns and predict behavior on an unprecedented scale.  The new economic and social forces unleashed could revolutionize our lives.  

This trend is paralleled (even amplified) by growing dependence on ‘new information systems’ designed to prevent organizations from collapse due to information overload by allocating more and more decision-making to cybernetic or automated computer systems.  Fear of information overload is widespread, and because it is shared by social, economic and government organizations, the trend towards automation of information flow is fast creating decision-making networks that work autonomously – cybernetic decision-making systems.
 
The ‘three-Ds – Digitization, Data mining, and cybernetic Decision making (or 3-D Process, henceforth) -- not only threaten to compromise our privacy and undermine our autonomy as human beings.  They may drain society of its most creative powers.  In some case, the 3-D Process is augmented and accelerated by other objectives:  For instance, attempts to reduce paperwork:  The Government Paperwork Elimination Act (GPEA), enacted in 1998 requires all US governmental authorities to develop and acquire “information technology to include alternative information technologies that provide for electronic submission, maintenance or disclosure of information as a substitute for paper … within five years.”1  Most public agencies in the US and the UK will be online by the year 2005.  While designed to enhance efficiency and customer service, paperwork elimination has a ‘hidden’ consequence:  huge amounts of information on almost every aspect of human activity – down to the level of the individual, are being collected in digital form and archived.
  
Parallel to this, civilian, non-government institutions of all kinds -

•   from commercial enterprises – big and small, to political organizations and pressure groups, non-profit organizations and social networks are creating data banks of their own customers/clients/supporters/members.  The declared objective is to expand their outreach, enhance their effectiveness, and/or improve their customer relations management with personalized services based on assembly of user profile files.  
 
Beyond the immediate objectives or utility of such systems, inside and outside government, this phenomenon is wittingly or unwittingly compiling a digital database on every individual at a multiple of levels, recording almost every move we make.  In fact, the rush to squirrel away information has become a kind of 21st century ‘gold rush’:  Organizations are asking for and recording information at times without knowing when, how or for what purpose, but with a clear sense that ‘down the road’ the input they posses will be worth its weight in gold.

If ‘knowledge is power’ has become the mantra of the Information Age, the ‘alchemy’ that will allow such organizations to transform piles of data into new knowledge with a market value is the advent of data mining techniques.  Data bases of every kind have already become traded commodities.  What is particularly worrisome is new capabilities to combine and integrate such data bases using artificial intelligence and advanced data mining techniques.  In the past statistical profiles were limited to a handful of demographic variables such as age, gender, religion, income, education and geographical location.

Tomorrow’s data mining techniques will soon be able to sift through thousands and thousands of variables to find significant correlations that reveal ‘how we tick’ psychologically.  Constantly updated, such personal dossiers will accompany people throughout their lives like a shadow, often irrespective of the utility of the profile, but accessible through technology to more and more interested parties.  As New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman – but one sideline observer of the 3-D Process noted:  
 
“Instead of Big Brother, there are a lot of Little Brothers…constantly watching and interpret our daily lives.”2
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1 GPEA.  XVII of P.L.  105-277 [http://Thomas.loc.gov.]
 
While this ‘shadowing’ process is already afoot in data bases that track our marketing behavior or record our web activity, as more and more areas of our lives are ‘digitized’, more and more the elements that make up our lives and our mindsets become transparent once they are ‘processed’ using advanced technology that reveal patterns of which even we the subjects may not be cognizant.  Proliferation of data-gathering into our private lives and psyches stand to increase significantly, even take a quantum-leap forward, once developers are able to further miniaturize, power and lower the price of tiny sensors called ‘smart dust’ – a development that is just around the corner.  

Once these almost microscopic wireless sensor devices can be reduced to the size of a grain of rice rather than ten on a face of a penny, and their price lowered from $100 per unit to $1 per unit, sensors can be implanted or attached to anything – people, animals, plants and inanimate objects likes tables and walls and household appliances in alarming numbers.  Originally designed to improve quality of life by reporting a drop in blood sugar for a diabetic or disconnecting an appliance at the first signs of an electrical fire, miniature sensors will lead to integrated wireless sensor networks that will not only be able to monitor and report our behavior in a myriad of ways in our homes, at work and in our leisure time activities.  When this data is compiled and examined as a whole, thanks to a universal digital language upon which all the input is based, repetitive behavior patterns and what stimulates them can be accurately calculated.
  
David Tennenhouse, director of research at Intel Research told MIT Technology Review at an October 2003 conference on “Where Technology is Heading?”  that he can imagine:  

“...a global computer network with ‘fingers’ reaching everywhere, sensors scattered around the world, and embedded processors in various devices.  ‘We need new sensors and actuators, new ways of connecting our computers to the physical world.  [N.L.  Italics mine].  Information technology has barely scratched the surface of where it can be used.”  

The possibility of a small army of sensor-actuators who collaborate with and compensate for one another and report what’s going on – turning on the irrigation system based on the readings of humidity sensors in the soil – are already in the late stages of development.  A senior NASA engineer enthusiastically described the potential as “synthesizing global knowledge from raw data on the fly.”3 The existence of universal sensor in every crack and cranny not only ushers in what the engineer’s interviewer preferred to label “pervasive’ computing”  – “creeping into every home, building, office, factory, car, street, and farm”.  It also sets the stage for ‘the tail wagging the dog’.
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2 Thomas L.  Friedman “Little Brother, New York Times, September 26, 1999

Neil Savage in a Technology Review conference predicted:  
 
“These sensors will monitor all sorts of human and environmental activities …Instead of just responding to our requests… computers could start anticipating human needs and in some cases it could take actions on our behalf.”4  As data bases have expanded and information systems become more complex, data management has become one of the hottest majors at business schools.  The world’s foremost leaders in technology, such as Microsoft, and research institutions at leading academic centers are eagerly taking an active role in developing sophisticated information management systems designed to enable organizations to maximize the utility of their knowledge base.  The faster personal digital profiles are created by government agencies, educational systems and commercial enterprises, the greater the enticement to tie these dossiers together in the name of efficiency and good management.  

At the same time, the increase in the size and complexity of such information systems compels organizations to adopt automated decision-making procedures ‘made by the system itself’ in order to take full advantage of the data at their disposal and to prevent the system’s collapse due to information overload.  At the heart of this process is the introduction of cybernetic systems.  Everything from complex industrial processes down to the performance of the air conditioner and the kitchen toaster are based on cybernetics – that is, autonomous decision - making operations that manage processes within a ‘closed system’ – from the flow of information from sensors to the stage of ‘policy implementation’, based on analysis of the data being received about the ‘state of the system’.  In other words, specific bits of information are translated into indicators of the ‘state of the system’ which are compared with indicators predefined in accordance with the system’s objectives.  
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3 Gregory Haung, “Casting the Wireless Sensor Net”, MIT Technology Review, July/August 2003, at http://www.cens.ucla.edu/News/TechReview.pdf

4 Neil Savage, MIT Technology Review Emerging Technologies conference October 1, 2003,

 
The cybernetic system identifies gaps between the actual state of affairs at any given moment and desired ones, prompting the system to make decisions for remedial treatment designed to reduce or eliminate the gaps.  This is all done without human intervention in a totally automated manner.  In social systems the indicators are indexes that reflect ‘the state of the organization’.  The quality of the decision-making process will hinge on the comprehensiveness and validity of the indicators.  Can cybernetic systems be applied to social systems? Is it a good idea?

When Chou En Lai was asked for his opinion on the social effects of the French Revolution, he answered “it is too early to say”  – a quip that reflected the limitations of social science to forecast behavior.  Up until now, political scientists, sociologists and social psychologists have been unable to monitor, measure, analyze and integrate or understand the full scope of factors that underlay human behavior and social phenomena.  Yet, emerging new information management systems, coupled with unprecedented progress in data mining and artificial intelligence herald a quantum-leap forward in the research tools available to the social sciences.  

New data mining techniques that enable scholars to create new smart ‘composite’ social indicators that link many dimensions of human activity or personality mesh well with what one might best term the ‘mechanization’ of the social sciences:  The primacy of technology in so many fields of human endeavor had given a ‘systematic’ bent to a host of professional fields in the social sciences, from learning theory to personal therapy.  Almost every phenomenon is now conceptually framed as a ‘process’ waiting to be understood, ‘worked through’ or ‘readjusted’ by social engineers.  
 
One of the outgrowths of this fashion is the emergence of social theories that view automation as a “mandatory basis”  for social growth and prevention of social collapse.  Automation is considered a ‘universal law of social development’ – that is, growing complexity requires automation to simplify the system and prevent its collapse, thus ‘accelerated complexity’ and ‘simplicity’ run hand-in-hand if society is to survive.  The character and ramifications of this trend in social thinking will be discussed in depth later in this paper.
  
Yet it is important to clarify at this point:  The introduction of automation into the process of social decision-making may harbor dire consequences for social systems.  Proponents for introducing cybernetics into the social domain assume that human beings are rational beings, perpetually searching for ways to reduce costs and improve their efficiency.  They presume that democratic institutions can adapt to the structural changes of introducing cybernetic systems without losing their vitality.  This optimism ignores the fact that automatic system for social decision-making will, by nature, seek to keep a system in equilibrium with its predetermined objectives and therefore will identify agents for societal change as undesirable, promoting only agents whose behavior is compatible with the vested - interests of the system – a characteristic that has serious ramifications for society.  

It may be that turning decision-making over to machines will threaten the vitality of human development by robbing ‘progress’ of its dynamic element.  After all, ‘new information systems’ cannot be programmed to recognize singular genius or even bright innovation and separate them from hair-brained schemes; by their nature, machine-generated decisions will ignore and if allowed – actively repress change processes that lies ‘outside conventional patterns’.

This could be disastrous to human progress, ‘programming’ humankind’s most technologically—advanced and sophisticated societies for mediocrity and maintenance of the status quo.  Yet outside the techie community there is little serious discussion of ‘where technology is taking us’.  Hopefully, putting these technological trends into graphic form can help ‘non-techies’ – from scientists in the social sciences to members of the media and the general public – better grasp where technology is moving the social sciences, and society as a whole.  

From Data – Mined Digitized Behavior to Cybernetic Decision-Making:  An Information Flow Model of the ‘3-D Process’

Understanding how input from digitized human behavior could affect – even erode social progress, can be enhanced by graphic illustration of ‘information flow’ within the social system.  The schema presented in Figure 1 is a visual presentation of the basic ’architecture’ of information flow.  (It is designed to provide an ‘overview’ of the 3-D Process, which will be followed by a more detailed discussion of the ‘state-of-the-art’, stage by stage.)

Figure 1 illustrates the four ‘stages’ of information flow:  the digitization process; data mining procedures; conversion of the data into social, personal indicators; and cybernetic decision- making and policy implementation.


Digitization of Human Activity:  
The Internet is not the only source of input on human activity that can be mined, but it is the ‘granddaddy’ of them all.  More and more aspects of human physical and psychological activities are expressed or channeled through the Web.  The Internet has become the site for more and more human activity not only for accessing information from a host of data bases, e- libraries, print media and so forth, and conducting business and social communication and academic collaboration.

So much information on business entities is available that company websites have become a highly profitable source of business intelligence.  Parallel to the growth of e-commerce and financial transactions, the variety of professional-occupational, leisure- time recreational and artistic pursuits on the Web are growing all the time.  The Internet has also become a popular platform not only for ‘traditional’ e-learning but also other forms of cognitive enhancement, and health monitoring and maintenance.  Of late, one witnesses more and more actual political activity on the Web, not just a plethora of political websites:  political forums, organization of write-in campaigns, dissemination of petitions, public opinion polls, straw votes on public issues to mention but a few.

In May 2004 the British Labor Party introduced a bill that would lower the voting age to 16 and allow voters to cast their ballots by e-mail or SMS and pilots of this sort are already operative in the UK.  The vast majority of this activity, whether in the privacy of one’s home or out in society, is in the public domain – making our lives more and more akin to living in a virtual goldfish bowl.
  
Data Mining to Uncover Psycho-Social DNA:  
‘Data mining’ is special strategies and techniques for extracting useful information from volumes of digital data.  Data mining is a key step in a broader process of information management techies call Knowledge Discovery from Databases (KDD) – a process that includes not only extracting possibly relevant data from the Web, but also ‘refinement steps’ where such data is ‘cleaned’, processed, integrated and interpreted to produce new knowledge/insights.5 While data mining techniques currently focus on specific input on a particular subject, the sheer scale of human activity in digital form going on over the Internet and deposited in other data bases presents a ‘window of opportunity’ to gain new insights into how human beings tick – on both an individual and collective level.  For social scientists, this possibility is like finding the Holy Grail… To date, the closest social scientists have come to cracking our mindsets is to categorize people into groups – Type A vs.  Type B, People- oriented vs.  Object-oriented, right-brain vs.  left-brain, and so forth.  Data mining holds the potential to examine the mindset of the individual on an entirely different level.  Quantitative research will never be the same.  

An individual’s psycho-social DNA will contain discrete personal biographic parameters regarding interrelationships between an individual’s various personality traits and his or her behavior patterns.  Psycho-social DNA will be derived using the KDD process that will be able to establish statistically significant correlations between personal traits (e.g.  cognitive traits,) and behavior (media consumption, commercial activity, etc).  Knowing a person’s psycho-social DNA will be a powerful tool for predicting human behavior in various situations, based on past performance.  
 
Figure 2 presents in graphic form the kind of ‘strands’ that make up an individual’s psycho-social DNA.  
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5 (Footnote:  Piatetsky-Shapiro, “Knowledge Discover from Real Databases”, Artificial Intelligence, 11 (5), 1991, at http://www.kdnuggets.com/gpspubs/aimag-kdd-overview-1996-Fayyad.pdf



Figure 2
Virtual Psycho-Social DNA

Each of us ‘carries’ personal psychological – virtual ‘genes’ – where each strand of psycho-social DNA represents or reflects a distinct attribute of the human psyche, part of one’s cognitive profile or other personal attributes that impact on our behavior.  The application of KDD procedures to the huge amount of data in digital form available on each individual’s behavior will enable data miners to define such virtual behavior ‘genes’ and create a social ‘behavior genome’ of sorts.  It is entirely possible in the future many aspects of behavior will be linked to real human genes – just as some scientists have already postulated that there is a genetic basis to those prone to risk-taking and thrill seeking.6

Artificial intelligence, sophisticated data-mining algorithms and the new grid computing strategies that reveal patterns hidden in huge quantities of data and other goodies in the ‘KDD toolbox’ up scale the entire field of psychological profiling to encompass all of society.  They make the mapping of our overall psycho-social DNA on an individual level – en mass, a distinct possibility in the not-so-distant future.
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6 Judy Seigel, “Israeli, US Scientists Find Risk Gene”, Jerusalem Post News Service, January 5, 1996, at http://www.jewishsf.com/content/2-0-/module/displaystory/story_id/2692/format/html/displaystory.html
 
These individual profiles can then be batched and examined to create social indicators that are relevant for society as a whole, just as the state of the economy is reflected in various economic indicators such as standard of living index, rate of unemployment, new jobs, etc.  Social indicators, constantly monitored and ‘refreshed’ by the flow of ‘DNA data’ will be able to describe the state of the social system at any given point in time – however, the complexity of such data has a catch:  It requires that benchmarking it against pre-set social indicators will have to be handled by programmed information management systems.  

The dilemma is – How much interpretation and formulation of policy can safely be left to cybernetic decision-making?

Cybernetic Decision-Making:  
Cybernetic systems are autonomous systems that self-regulate processes though the interaction of goals, predictions, actions, feedback and response, without human intervention in the decision making-process.  Originally applied to physical systems from aiming artillery to complex industrial processes, cybernetics is now being applied to information because data has become too voluminous to be handled by the human brain.  

In cybernetic decision-making in the social domain, social indicators serve as the bases for comparison of the existing state of the system with the social system pre-determined objectives.  These objectives are also expressed in terms of social indicators stored in the system’s memory.  When a gap between the desired state and the actual state of the social system becomes too great, the cybernetic decision-making apparatuses formulate a policy for corrective action to reestablish equilibrium – that is, to re-align the social system with its objectives, much in the way climate control systems are programmed to automatically respond and maintain a certain temperature and humidity in our physical environment.
 
Thus information freely flowing from storage of input from human activity to behavioral control of human behavior is fast becoming reality.  It is trend that mass ‘digitally-challenged’ communications scholars simply can no longer afford to ignore.  A closer look inside each of the ‘three big Ds’ in the above schema – the digitization, the data-mining and the decision- making – and where they are leading, are called for.  

Digital Coding of Every Respect of Human Activity
Binary ‘coding’ in-and-of-itself itself is not new.  What is new is its universal usage:  Binary coding is an integral part of the patterns of African tom-tom drums.  It was used by Francis Bacon in his first forays into cryptography when he produced a binary code for the 26-letters of the English alphabet (A = aaaaa, B=aaaab, C= aaaba, D = aaabb, etc.) Morse Code’s use of ‘dots’ and ‘dashes’—the first mass commercial use of binary code was debuted in 1836 – is over 150 years old.  

But, never before have so many aspects of human behavior in so many forms been expressed in binary digital code.  Nicholas Negroponte, founder and director of the MIT Media Lab and columnist for Wired magazine was the first to grasp that bits of data have become so widespread that they have become analogous to atoms of matter.  In a landmark book – Being Digital – published in 1996, Negroponte labeled bits of data “the smallest element of the DNA of information”.7  Indeed, for the first time in human history, life – sound, visual images, texts, biological phenomenon and human ‘comings and goings’ are all being coded into a common binary electronic language, a digital Esperanto if you wish.  This transformation of all human physical and mental activity, mundane and sublime, into a universal form will dramatically change life and social organization as we know it.

As Howard Rheingold noted in The Smart Mobs 8:  “We leave digital traces of our personal lives with our credit cards and with web browsers today…Tomorrow mobile devices will broadcast clouds of personal data to invisible monitors all around us, as we move from place to place…The virtual social and physical worlds are colliding, merging and coordinating”.  Once coded into digital form, electronic ‘material’ can be stored, processed and analyzed – combined or compared – by new intelligent simulation models (algorithms) of almost unlimited size, with an almost unlimited number of variables and attributes.  

This transformation of all phenomena into the common digital language was labeled in a November 2000 article in Scientific American – “Digital Convergence”.9  Because it is hard to grasp the sheer scope of this watershed event, the ‘convergence process’ has been converted into graphic form in Figure 3 which displays how all content (audio, video, data, graphics), information display platforms (TV, internet, game machines) all distribution systems (optical fibers, wireless, DSL lines), and analytical tools (data mining – KDD) are converging.
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7 N.  Negroponte, “Being Digital”, Vintage Books, 1995.  
8 H.  Rheingold, “Smart Mobs”, Perseus Publishing, 2003
9 Peter Forman et al., Creating Convergence, Scientific American Journal, Nov. 19, 2000, at http://www.sciam.com/print_version.cfm?articleID=000A1852-12CF-1C73-9B81809EC588EF21#print

 

 
Figure 3
Total Digital Convergence

This awesome revolution not only enriches our lives with integrated content or multimedia.  More important, it opens up new means for extracting integrated knowledge about all aspects of human behavior, physiology and psychology, spurring the creation of new ways to merge these unlimited resources - cybernetic tools.  A few examples of how digitization affects different areas of human activity – from music to cognitive activity will illustrates the revolution in store.  Music is a good example.  

Digitization of music not only brings unparalleled quality to our listening pleasure.  It opens up new horizons for composers:  Describing the new ‘fluid’ quality of music in an article in the New York Times, Kevin Kelly wrote:10
]
“Once music is digitized it becomes a liquid that can be molded and mitigated and flexed and linked…You can filter it, bend it, archive it, and rearrange it…Once music is digitized new behaviors emerge…to surgically morph a sound until it is suitable for a new use…to X-ray the guts of the music and outline its structure and alter it, to rearrange a piece so that its parts yield a different voice…to mold and marry music together into hybrid seeds…Music is becoming a commodity that is traded, co-created and co- produced by a network audience…”.
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10 Kevin Kelly, W here Music Will Be Coming From, The NYT, March 17, 2002

Digitization not only affects the people who make music; it makes it possible to examine music’s ‘innards’ to discover unique digitized patterns ‘behind’ musical works.  Philips Electronics has already developed a music search engine that can identify a symphony composer just by humming a tune, based on the work’s unique ‘audio fingerprint’.  In the future, harnessing data-mining and data-analysis techniques to a composer’s composite works is likely to reveal hidden links between the composer’s personality and his or her music.
  
Sight is undergoing the same revolution as sound:  El-Op Electro-optical Industries has developed a digital movie-editing console (“Matchmaker”) that can match and synchronize different versions of the same film for simultaneous multiple- language broadcasting using the unique digital ‘fingerprint’ of each frame.  Tomorrow, when pixels of works of art will be examined with intelligent algorithms, new insights about art and human aesthetics based on the secrets of their inner structure and content which the human eye cannot perceive may appear.  Such examination may reveal hidden links between visual images and artists’ personal traits.  New insights on visual stimuli may open up a whole new dimension to graphic arts and advertising.
  
One of the most ambitious patterning projects is a seven year project dreamed up by astronomers.  The Digitized Sky Survey”11 systematically digitized photos of the entire sky with the aid of a Hubble telescope.  The database will be scanned to seek unseen patterns in the cosmos among the half a billion stars in the digital photograph series.  

Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery from Data (KDD)
Digitzation in-and-of-itself goes nowhere – not until it is harnessed to a new way of looking at things.  The key is data mining – a new way of investigating phenomena which is often described as one of the ten most important emerging technologies that will change the world.12  Data mining is based on applying automated statistical analysis and artificial intelligence to reveal hidden patterns and relationships within huge batches of random data.  Because of their enormous commercial potential, countless high-tech companies are engaged in using these techniques for a growing number of applications.
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11 Space Telescope Science Institute, www.stsci.edu/resources/
12 Rachel Konard,”Data Mining:Digging User Info for Gold”  ZDnet, February 8, 2001

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Re: That which you don't understand will govern your life-so please wake up
« Reply #1 on: February 26, 2011, 04:11:12 PM »
Two well-known examples are Google’s personalized banners and Amazon’s personalized book offers which use our web behavior for more focused marketing.  Not all applications, however, involve focused marketing.  The potential of data mining to pick up patterns is enormous:  The American NBA is using data mining to analyze videos of basketball games from a situational standpoint.  Advanced Scout software13 reviews and analyses the layout of rival teams on the court at critical junctures of previous games to reveal winning moves when specific players face one another in a similar situation.14

Cognifit (www.cognifit.com) computer software designed to enhance users’ cognitive abilities is based on digital coding, analyses and storage of the movements of the mouse to create a customized digital profile of the subject’s cognitive attributes.  From a scientific viewpoint, the main objective of data mining (DM) is to convert bits of random information into knowledge in all fields of scientific endeavor – from the natural sciences such as biology and medicine to the social sciences.  

Data mining is often mistakenly used as a synonym for KDD – Knowledge Discovery from Databases:  Data minding is the application of a specific algorithm for extracting patterns from data – only a step, albeit a key step, in the KDD process.   Osama Fayyad,15 a senior researcher at Microsoft explains:  Data mining will only produce a mélange of meaningful-and-meaningless valid-and-invalid patterns; additional steps must be taken before patterns or relationships can be converted into knowledge:  “Data preparation, data selection, data cleaning, incorporations of appropriate prior knowledge and proper interpretation of the results, are essential to ensure that useful knowledge is derived from data”.
  
Fayyad adds that KDD processes are currently being expanded in an “attempt to automate the entire process of data analysis and the statistician art of hypothesis, selection”16 Automatic selection and detection of new hypothesis is a dramatic expansion of data mining that holds great promise for social scientists – extending the ability of the human brain to ‘see order’ amidst chaos, as intelligence was once defined.
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13 “Advanced Scout:  Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery in NBA Data”, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston, 1997, at http://www.cs.bilkent.edu.tr/~guvenir/courses/CS558/SeminarPapers/nba.pdf.
 
14 See www.anderson.ucla.edu “Data Mining:  What is Data Mining?”  p.2

15 Usama Fayyad, et al, From Data Mining to Knowledge Discovery in Databases, American Association for Artificial Intelligence, Fall 1966 p.3
 
16Ibid


 
How does KDD work? All data processing tools seek one of four types of relationships17:
 
• Classes:  Data is located by predetermined groups – such as defining consumer groups, then tailoring specials to customer preferences;

• Clusters:  Data items grouped according to logical relationships – such as the behavior of browsers;

• Associations:  Data with a high confidence level that two things will appear together – such as seemingly unrelated purchases – beer and diapers that appear in tandem in male shopping carts as the weekend approaches;
 
• Sequential patterns:  Data reflects associations or tendencies where there is a time factor involved in the link between data – such as the likelihood that a person who purchased a backpack will be shopping for a sleeping bag within a given period of time.  

To seek these relationships data miners employ a host of analytical software tools, including statistical algorithms, machine learning, neural networks, decision trees and others strategies.  

One example can help illustrate how they operate.  One of the most popular data mining tools is neural network or artificial intelligence.  It is a non-linear predictive model that purports to resemble the way the brain works – that is, its architecture is layered in such a way that the path taken at each fork hinges on an ‘activation function’ determined by the weights or value of the relationship between all the variables.  VISA International is currently using neural networks to create elaborate behavioral profiles which can track individual clients’ behavior online or offline and match it to similar personality and behavior types in an effort to predict future behavior.  

A growing use of neural networks to study social systems can be expected because of their ability to deal with complexity, yet the model has its drawbacks:  Although neural systems lend themselves to predicting behavior in the commercial sphere – such as who is likely to respond to direct mailing, the model does not necessarily provide the reasoning behind its predictions – a serious disadvantage when the objective is to understand social relations.  There are some other methods – such as decision-trees – that can address reasoning, but only with a very limited number of variables.
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17 www.anderson.ucla.edu “Data Mining:  What is Data Mining?”  
  
Some of the latest state-of-the-art software is more far-reaching - Sagramatha, for instance:  While the company’s software (www.sag121.com) is designed to provide credit card companies with the input on consumer behavior to produce ‘personalized coupons’ that reflect our buying patterns, thus increasing coupon redemption, Sagramatha boasts that it is able to take a huge database and ‘drill down to individual consumers’ by:  “…analyses consumer loyalty or credit/debit transaction data in thousands of dimensions simultaneously [N.L.  Italics mine].”
 
Sagramatha is a harbinger of a coming revolution that can not only manipulate how we shop, but how we behavior in other domains.  When these techniques are ultimately applied to social engineering objectives instead of merely increasing market share what will be the ramifications?
 
Social Consequences of the 3-D Process
Data mining will undoubtedly have dramatic influence on social and political science research.  As shown in Figure 1, the 3-D Process pushes social organizations in the direction of total cybernetic decision-making processes.  The benefits and the risks are enormous.  There are major social issues that arise from growing penetration of the 3-D Process into all walks of life.  Much has been written about personal composite electronic profile violating personal freedoms, but little has been written about the effect on society as a whole.  

Another serious issue is the high probability that ‘individual customization’ will arbitrarily limit the social and economic opportunities open to individuals based on ‘electronic profiling’.  Business Week labeled this phenomenon “Weblining”18 as the Information Age’s equivalent of red-lining – a practice where “leaders and businesses marked whole neighborhoods off limit…based on geographic stereotypes, not concrete evidence.”  Information management companies gather and sell information on individuals under the innocuous name ‘knowledge-based customer recognition systems’.  In fact, customer recognition systems arbitrarily govern the type, the quality and the cost of services offered, based on an individual’s assets and past behavior, automatically compiled and analyzed by cybernetic systems.  Einstein – a Web-aided computer system used by the First Union Bank produces a customized customer profile on a teller’s monitor in less than 15 seconds flat.  
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18 Marcia Stepanek, “weblining”, Businessweek Online, April 3 2000

In his book, The Naked Consumers19 Eric Larson, a Wall Street Journal columnist, warns not only of the invasion of privacy; he speaks of the prospect that profiling will ultimately sap the vitality of the business sector by encouraging businesspersons and entrepreneurs to “…pay more attention to manipulation of our needs and values through surveillance rather than risk and innovation.”  It should be added:  The technology not only threatens to reduce customers to dehumanized individual ‘profit and loss’ statements; the more widely it is used, the more equal opportunity and social mobility – one of the pillars of western democratic society – are likely to be eroded.  

The major social concerns regarding personalization of data mining will continue to grow due to the great economic benefits that it provides to government and the private sector.  The real issue is access to data bases and the fact that such information is being turned into commodities that are being traded ‘as is’ or in partnership and made accessible to more and more interested parties in the open market.  

According to the white paper Data and What We’re Doing with It 20 published by ACXIOM – a leading information broker, lack of restrictions on collection and use of data is driving the establishment of “databases…in all shapes and sizes.”  The trend towards amalgamation of data bases is marked…and growing exponentially.  Thus in one documented case 100 small consumer databases of consumers of outdoor sporting items, each with 50,000 names, joined forces to create a 3.5 million consumer database of outdoor sports enthusiasts which was then overlaid with additional information from other data bases that revealed a host of information about the individual customers – from age and telephone number to vehicle owned and type of dwelling.  Such dossiers are sold in digital form that seamlessly interface with mass marketing software or other uses.  Politics, for instance.  

Prediction of voting behavior based on past political behavior and personal traits is nothing new.  It was first introduced in the 1965 presidential race when I De Sola Pool 21 served as a consultant to JFK on which campaign topics to talk about and which to avoid.  Since then, campaign management based on what the voter wants to hear – the ‘making of a president’, based on applying techniques used by the social sciences to examine human behavior to advertising ploys has become an integral part of political campaigns.
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19 Eric Larson, “ The Naked Consumers:  How Our Private Lives Become Public Commodities”, Henry Holt, 1992

20 Jennifer Barret, “Data and What We’re Doing With It”, ACXIOM CORP.  2002, at http://www.acxiom.com/subimages/130200322809data_and_what_we.doc
 
21 I De Sola Pool, “candidates, Issues And Strategies”, 1965, M.I.T Press


Data mining techniques may soon offer the kind of input now extracted from focus groups, only on a grand scale – further focusing campaigning on manipulation rather than genuine discussion of policy positions.  Tomorrow, campaigning techniques will be able to plug into our psyches with customized messages, just as personalized banners on the Web now plug into our consumer habits.  The ACXIOM white paper reveals, for instance, that ads and even editorial content printed mainstream publications like Newsweek vary from customer to customer—‘customized’ to the subscriber’s personal profile! The profit of applying similar techniques in mass mailings to voters from campaign headquarters is probably too good to be ignored.  ACXIOM knows what it is talking about:  According to Business Week22 ACXIOM has stockpiled names, addresses, income, race, religious affiliation and other data on 95 million American households! There are only approximately 110 million households in the entire United States.  The ‘gold rush’ for data mining has not escaped government.  

The fashion of government viewing their citizens as customers may enhance efficiency and service quality, but this may come at a price.  Andrew Pinder, head of the UK’s drive to put all government services in Great Britain online by 2005 noted recently in a BBC interview that putting ministries online is not enough.  Governments, he said, must determine “what people want and are willing to use.”  In the same breath, Pinder speaks of the public sector “borrow[ing] techniques from successful businesses like Amazon, which builds --- around the customer.”23

Creation of personalized dossiers of government’s ‘customers’ and offering services to citizens accordingly, in the name of ‘personalized service’ would seem to be only a matter of time.  In the early 1950’s, the FBI visited homes of those holding high security clearance, furtively scanning the books in their libraries for radical material, while asking questions; now it is possible to track the reading habits of every American digitally.  Our magazine subscriptions, book purchases and library traffic – all sitting in databases and waiting to be combined, can reveal a host of information about us – from our political persuasions to our sexual orientation.
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22 Marcia Stepanek, “weblining”, Businessweek Online, April 3 2000
23 Andrew Pinder, BBC news, 25.9.2003, at http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/3139816.stm
 
  
The above example is focused, but the potential for ‘digital net casting’ is much much broader:  A now-defunct DoD project, sparked by 9/11 called the Total Information Awareness, conceived by the Defense Advance Research Projects Agency (DARPA) – the founding father of the internet, had broader aspirations than learning whether we subscribe to fringe publications.  The TIA project’s objective was to monitor all the digitized aspects of human behavior – including all transactional activity and biometric information regarding individual members of society.  Among the stated objectives of the project were the following 24:  

“Technically, the TIA program is focusing on the development of 1) architectures for a large-scale counter-terrorism database… and for integrating algorithms and mixed-initiative analytical tools.  2) novel methods for populating the database from existing sources, create innovative new sources and invent new algorithms for mining, combining and refining information for subsequent inclusion into the database; and 3) revolutionary new models, algorithms, methods, tools and techniques for analyzing and correlating information in the database to derive actionable intelligence.”  

For example, The DARPA Total Information Awareness Project proposed to use patterning technology to monitor phone calls of persons associated with nuclear power plants to uncover latent multi-tiered ties among individuals within and outside the system that reveal the existence of social groupings that might constitute a security risk to the plant.  In September 2003 the funding for the project was cut off by the Congress out of fear that Total Information Awareness would undermine the right to privacy (although the project was said to be designed to monitor foreigners, not American citizens.) The importance of the DARPA project is that it proves that integration of the digitization of all aspects of human life stripping us of our privacy is no longer science fiction.  

While the above examples of activity and attitudes in both the private and public sector hardly exhaust the potential to take advantage of digitization to create psycho-social DNA and apply it to monitor or manipulate our lives in countless domains, the potential dangers of the synergy of digitization and data mining is magnified when decision-making is turned over to cybernetic systems – a natural outcome of the limitations of the human brain.  
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24 See http://www.darpa.mil/iao/TIASystems.htm.  

The convergence of digitization, data-mining and social cybernetic decision-making may be planting the seeds of destruction – undermining the very elements that make technologically advanced societies so strong.  It is important for the community-at-large beyond the hi-tech sector to be cognizant of where automated data management is taking us.
 
Social Cybernetic Decision-Making:
Everyone uses buzz words like ‘cyberspace’ – and more recently…cyberia, but what exactly is cybernetics?
 
The word “cybernetics”  is derives from the Greek word kybernotes which means a ‘steerman’.  In 1948, Norbert Wiener, professor of mathematics at MIT, became the founding father of modern cybernetics – a breakthrough concept that ‘control and communication’ are at the heart of the operation of biological, mechanical and social entities, alike.  The idea emerged from discussion among a group of physicists, electrical engineers, biologists and mathematicians.  One of the first examples of an ‘interdisciplinary’ exchange in an age when specialization in isolated communities dominated academe, the participants’ discovered that there were shared cybernetic principles in their respective fields of expertise.  By logic, they could be interfaced, sparking endeavors to develop man - machine self-regulating systems.  Wiener was cognizant from the start of the promise and the peril of cybernetics.  In his classic book Cybernetics25 published in 1948, Norbert Wiener cited that there would be attempts to introduce cybernetic principles into social systems, expressing concern that “the new science....embraces technical developments with great possibilities for good and for evil”.  While this paper is not designed to serve as an introduction to cybernetics, it is important to understand the basic assumptions about phenomena that underlie cybernetics.  Three of the key ones are as follows:
  
Regulation and control are the most important processes in nature.  Understanding these processes is fundamental to the continuous existence of all organizations – biological, mechanical and social.  The existence of any organization directly depends on the ability to transfer and correctly process information.  All biological, mechanical and social systems transfer and process information in a similar manner.  
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25 Norbert Wiener, “Cybernetics”, MIT Press, 1948, p.  38

These principles view information networks as the ‘central nervous systems’ of all organizations.  Moreover, it follows by logic that inferences can be made from the study of one system vis-à-vis understandings about other systems, and that simulation of one system’s behavior can shed light and help predict future developments in other systems.  A classical cybernetic system operates in the following way:  Sensors collect raw feedback from the relevant environment.  The raw feedback is processed and converted to pre-defined indicators.  These indicators, describing the system at a given time, are transmitted to a ‘control function’ which is also fed by the system’s goals from the system’s memory.  The ‘control function’ identifies the gaps between the objectives and the current status of the system.  

The gaps are then transferred to a ‘decision-making apparatus’ responsible for making new decisions designed to change the environment to bring the system closer to its objectives.  The decisions are transmitted to system ‘effectors’ that take actions to change the environment.  What is important for our discussion is that the whole process is expected to operate autonomously, even when applied to social systems, not just physical systems like plastic extrusion production lines, as if human beings behave like and can be governed like a collection of $3 stackable lawn chairs.  The operation of cybernetic decision-making within the social system is illustrated in Figure 4.


Figure 4
The Operation of a Social Cybernetic System (1)
 
The advent of cybernetic concepts was a catalyst for some social scientists to develop new theories about social development26 that view society as social systems and sub-systems with their own self-regulatory mechanisms that ‘steer’ human development and assign communication a key role in the structuring of society.  

Among the core assumptions shared by sociological systems theorists:  

1.   The world is not ‘striving towards chaos and disorder’, kept in check by social structure.  Rather, the predominant direction of organisms is “…toward systemization, towards increased levels of organization.”27
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26 C.R. Dechert, “The Social Impact of Cybernetics”.  Clarion Books, Simon and Schuster, 1966

27 J. J. Ford, “the Soviet Cybernetics and International Development” in Dechert, The Social Impact of Cybernetics, p. 171

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2.   Organizations move towards complexity and simplification at the same time:  Increasing complexity is driven by increased accumulation of information; increasing simplification is the product of automatic processes made necessary to handle the information overload.  

3.   Systems which can not adapt to environmental changes or to establish dynamic equilibrium with their surroundings are in danger of disappearing.  Survival requires development of tools which absorb feedback, process it and makes correct decisions to reestablish dynamic equilibrium (e.g.  homeostasis process).
  
4.   Social systems must develop tools to transform the external environment to conform to human needs, while changing internal behavior to reach dynamic equilibrium with changing external environments.
 
5.   There is no upper limit to levels of complexity:  An effective system is one that parallels increasing complexity with development of mechanisms that automate the system’s complexity.  Thus, automation is viewed as a ‘universal law of development’ without which further development would be impossible.  In other words, automation is at the heart of a cybernetic perspective.  
 
The Need to Re-think Social Indicators
The use of social indicators to measure social progress has been around well before the emergence of cybernetics in the mid-20th century, however, rigid and woefully limited socio- economic indexes upon which policy formulation has been based no longer suffice when more and more decision-making is being made automatically.  

Cybernetic social systems need to be made more reliable by taking into account the complexities of the human personality when they evaluate input and feedback to determine gaps between ‘the state of the system (i.e.  society) and ‘desired societal objectives’ and need to decide what steps to take to bring the two more into synch when the gap is too wide.  That is, the social indicators that serve as ‘sensors’ or ‘regulators’ for measuring the ‘wellbeing’ of the social system at any given time need to be re-thought.  

There is room for new innovative social indicators that can measure positive objectives of the social system – such as effective socialization processes, social integration, social cohesiveness, and environments supportive of pluralism, tolerance, and so forth.  From a functional standpoint, data mining tools that are now able to handle composite multi- dimensional data can now handle a host of other indicators, thus providing a much broader palate for evaluating human wellbeing, feelings and opinions.  These indicators are ‘embedded’ in our daily activity, which because they are now in digital form can be accessed, compiled, weighed and analyzed just like traditional indicators such as infant mortality levels.
  
Table 1 of Figure 5 provides a brief description of the social indicators currently used by international organizations to measure socio-economic wellbeing in different societies – indexes such as age, income, divorce rates and literacy levels.  The levels of these indicators reflect the outcome of past decision-making processes by ‘society’ – both government institutions and private organizations.  These indicators, however, cannot explain the reasons for poor health conditions, low work motivation, poverty, high suicide rates or poor performance of educational systems.  To date, attempts to explain such phenomenon have been based on social science research whose focus and number of variables are severely limited.


Table 1 – Social Indicators – Traditional and Web-Based

Integration of data mining processes with the growing availability of almost unlimited personal feedback from society in digital form create new opportunities to design multidimensional social indicators that will provide better understanding and monitoring of social processes than current social research can achieve.  These indicators will allow cybernetic social systems to anticipate or predict – by simulations, the performance of policy decisions.  Some of the new digital feedback personal dimensions that can be tapped into are outlined in Table 2 of Figure 5.
  
Data mining will, for example, help reveal the relationship between personal cognitive parameters, cultural activity, personal social activity and motivation.  It will uncover, based on an unprecedented large-scale ‘sample’, what elements enhance self-esteem in a pluralistic society, or how low self-esteem motivates people to be socially active in positive or negative ways.  Most important, the dynamics of continuous information flow will provide constant feedback of social processes and the effectiveness of policy implementation, on an individual and societal level.

The time perspective provided by continuous information flow will be an essential element in refinement of Knowledge Discovery from Data procedures.  The potential benefit of new social indicators now possible, can be illustrated by two examples:  one – research from the realm of e-learning on the benefits of feedback in the classroom via SMS input, the other – a small data mining product that uses personal cognitive traits to predict weak points in driving behavior safety.  While both are limited in scope, they demonstrate the benefits data mining for new social indicators can bring.  

Example #1:  An experiment in the value of electronic feedback in the classroom

The educational system can serve as a good example how 3-D Processes can be integrated to improve the output of traditional school systems.  E-learning uses the Internet as a platform, but has yet to mobilize the flow of information to make decisions about ‘how to teach’ – that is, evaluate the student’s learning, examine how personal parameters affect a person’s learning processes and set information loads, add visual aids, pace the speed of exercises and so forth accordingly.  True integration of data mining and cybernetics in e-learning systems will make it possible to create built-in ‘Virtual Personal Instructors’ who examine the students’ personal traits and monitor feedback, adjusting instruction so it will be ‘tailor-made’ to the student needs.  

At present, conventional schools lack the ability to monitor the individual student’s online performance – whether the student understands the teacher or is even listening.  As in traditional classroom teaching, only periodic testing reveal poor results, without any ongoing ‘sensors’ to measure motivation or understanding and take remedial action, although all the students’ performance in online courses is in digital form.  A study conducted at MIT’s Dialogue Media Lab in the 1970s in anticipation of the coming cybernetic age – the author’s doctoral research28 – demonstrated the benefits of continual digital feedback.  A hand-held electronic ‘voting system’ was constructed that allowed each student to provide the teacher (and the entire class) with anonymous feedback in the course of the lessons – a primitive form of SMS-based questions/requests now being introduced into some classrooms.  (See Figure 6)


Figure 6
Hand-held voting device


The experiment was designed to study group decision-making and response as a pilot for testing the suitability of public involvement in decision-making via Internet or interactive television.  A course class was viewed as a microcosm of society.  Both the option to be asked and the ability to respond anonymously (i.e. to ‘Yes-or- No’ questions) were welcomed by most students.  The existence of a channel for feedback enhanced involvement.  Many students, nearly half, reported that they were inhibited by the lack of meaningful feedback channels within the existing school system.  Personal parameters had a direct affect, as expected, on the benefits derived by the students from the presence of an electronic channel.

For instance, approximately half the students in the class expressed – electronically and anonymously – that they would not participate in the classroom discussions because of peer pressures, lack of self-confidence or shyness.  The instructor learned to use the electronic voting device to provide feedback regarding level of student interest and understanding as the teacher progressed, making it possible to re-explain material if and when feedback indicated this was ‘called for’ – literally and figuratively… At the time, the amount of personal data on the participants was meager, and lack of modern data mining tools in the 1970s in any case blocked any attempt to further examine the role of cultural, personal or socio-economical factors in ‘ongoing feedback- enhanced learning’.
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28 Conducted under the guidance of Professor T.B.  Sheridan.  

This capability is now readily available with SMS which could make psycho-social input on self-esteem, motivation, group cohesiveness, social acceptance, articulacy, and peer pressure factors a part of a student’s profile, using these parameters and others to develop customized teaching programs.  In the larger perspective, the experiment clearly demonstrated, despite its small scale, the tremendous potential of electronic feedback, which with today’s technology can be ‘up scaled’ to provide feedback from society-at-large.  

Example #2:  State-of-the-Art Cognitive Enhancement Software
 
The Israeli company Cognifit29 is developing innovative computer software that allows people of all ages to enhance their cognitive ability by exercising daily in the software’s ‘mental gym’, online or offline.  The company’s first product, Drivefit, allows young drivers to improve their driving skills and enhance the probably of passing their driving test on the first try.  The user participates in 18 computer-aided exercises.  The computer studies the participant’s cognitive behavior and establishes a cognitive profile for each enrollee.  Hands-on driver training is subsequently adjusted to the student’s profile.

Data mining procedures of Cognifit’s accumulated data base revealed that it is possible to predict driving behavior of people based on cognitive profiles even before their first driving lesson demonstrating that behavior can, indeed, be predicted based on cognitive profiles compiled by KDD processes.  Cognifit’s Mindfit software – now under development, is designed to strengthen the cognitive abilities of the elderly population.  The user will be accompanied by a virtual Individual Training Assistant (ITA) who adapts Mindfit’s training regime to the individual’s cognitive skills and other parameters – such as awareness and fatigue.

The ITA is based on cybernetic concepts, programmed to automatically monitor and discover the participant’s personality attributes and apply them to chart the most suitable training programs.  The developers expect that data mining capabilities within the Mindfit system will be able to use personal feedback along a time scale - analyze mouse movements in the performance of the tasks – to find early signs of cognitive degeneration due to Alzheimer’s or Parkinson’s.
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29 Developed under the guidance of Prof S. Breznitz.  See, www.cognifit.com
  
In both the education and cognitive examples above, despite the differences in the sophistication of the systems, information flow is similar to information flow illustrated in Figure 1:  Human input is digitized, Then, it is subjected to data mining procedures to produce KDD.  The knowledge obtained from data mining analysis is translated into personal indicators which are then fed into the cybernetic decision-making systems, which subsequently adjusts training or teaching based on the feedback.  The use of data mining procedures in both examples enables extraction of new knowledge-understanding about how personal attributes are interrelated.  

The Need for Continuous Social Monitoring of Sociocybernetic Processes
 
Despite the promise inherent in the 3-D Process, there are dangers when this process is applied to social systems that should not be taken lightly.  The cybernetic decision process if uninterrupted, like any other automatic process – just like a room air conditioner, will strive to arrive at equilibrium with pre-determined objectives.  While in manufacturing or biological systems this may be desirable, in a social system this attribute could lead to social stagnation, even social collapse.  

In social organizations objectives are determined by those in power.  A cybernetic system, due to its automatic nature will resist any changes in the definition of the social objectives and will automatically strive to inhibit any gap due to dissonant activity.  It will be much more difficult for groups who seek social change to operate and achieve their goals the more cybernetic decision-making comes into the fore.  This can lead to heightened social tensions and unrest.  The system may not be designed to be receptive to such tensions.
 
This problem has not escaped social scientists.  In a 1991 article in Kybernetics30, Felix Geyer, a scholar of social research methodology at Vrje University in Amsterdam, made a differentiation between ‘first-order cybernetics’, used in mechanical-physical systems to maintain stability where “all forms of changer are inherently viewed as disturbances or deviations,”  and ‘second-order cybernetics’ – deemed more suitable for the social systems.
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30 Felix Geyer, “Cybernetics and Social Science:  Theories and Research in Sociocybernetics”, Kybernetes, 10 (6):  81-92, 1991, pp.  81-92, at http://www.unizar.es/sociocybernetics/chen/pfge3.html

Second-order sociocybernetics should and could be applied to change and growth rather than stability because social systems exhibit a high degree of self-steering and self-reference that keep them ‘on track’, Geyer reasoned.  But the problem of applying cybernetics to social systems does not end here.

Cybernetic assumptions regarding human behavior

A far more fundamental problem with cybernetics concerns the basic assumptions cybernetics holds regarding human behavior:  Cybernetic planners view human being as rational decision-makers, who strive for efficiency.  Most people, however, do not fit this description as was well demonstrated in the work of Nobel Prize laureate in economics (2000) Daniel Kahneman, and his colleague, the late professor of psychology Amos Tversky, in their important ground-breaking paper “Judgment Under Uncertainty Heuristic and Biases”31.
 
Kahnaman-Tversky demonstrated that people are not always rational decision-makers whose choices reflect careful calculation of self-interest.  Integrating insights from psychological research into economic science – particularly in regard to human judgment and decision-making under uncertainty, Kehnaman-Tversky found that human judgment may take ‘short cuts’ based on personal biases that depart from basic principles of probability.  A rigid “rational actor model”  is no more suitable to other areas of human endeavor than it is to economics in the wake of Kahneman-Tversky’s work.

The existence of such irrational/biased human behavior is equivalent to ‘throwing a monkey wrench into the works’ for cybernetics…  Cybernetic systems will tend to discount ‘irrational’ data stemming from factors other than purely logical and rational thinking – from bias to other emotional factors, viewing them all as ‘noise’ from an illegitimate or unreliable source that should be ignored, although this input is very much part of the human condition, and may be a sign of distress and disequilibrium within the social system.  The ability of the cyber system to learn from past errors and the ability to process huge amounts of data may, in the course of time, help reduce such error in reading the data, but it will not eliminate this entirely.  
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31 Daniel Kahneman et al.  “Judgment Under Uncertainty Heuristic and Biases”, 1982.  

For a short description of his work, see the October 2002 Princeton University news release on receipt of the Nobel Prize, at http://www.princeton.edu/pr/news/02/q4/1009-kahneman-b.htm

The application of data mining techniques to Kahneman- Tversky’s studies could lead to a whole new understanding as to what in people’s backgrounds or personal profiles leads them to make decisions under uncertainty the way they do.  It is possible that such research could lead to new knowledge that will enable prediction of human decisions in advance, based on their psycho-social DNA.  Whether this knowledge is desirable merits a philosophical discussion.  But whether desirable or not - once the tools are available…and they are available, the knowledge will be created and used in any case.
  
Another major issue of concern is the inevitable stereotyping that surely will be a by-product of the creation of psycho-social DNA profiles.  It will become more and more difficult to limit access to these profiles.  Besides the threat to privacy, stereotyping will lead to inequalities in opportunities and unequal distribution of public wealth.  Controversy has already been raised by banks tagging people as credit risks according to background parameters, without reference to past behavior.  Psycho-social DNA, whether valid or not, may heighten discrimination and let it spread to even more social domains.  The use of psycho-social DNA will grow in any case, despite its drawbacks.
  
Lastly, being void of imagination, cybernetic decision-making systems are likely not only to be unduly loyal to the status quo; they are likely to suppress innovation and weed out sparks of genus as mere ‘background noise’ that appears no different from the wackiest scatter-brained notion on earth – perhaps leaving us all the poorer in terms of human development, and charting a course for social stagnation…all the more ironic, because such a repressive spirit will strike the most complex and technologically-advanced segments of humankind.
  
Thus, it is imperative that social cybernetic decision systems not be allowed to become fully automatic.  There must be social intervention on all levels of the decision process.  Such social intervention must be interdisciplinary – in the hands of non- technological social groups including journalists, writers, philosophers, artists and legal experts to name just a few.  Thus it is imperative that members of the media and scholars of mass communications – first and foremost, fully understand what convergence of digitization, data-mining and cybernetic decision-making has in store for us and put debate of the issue on the public agenda.  

There must be a law of transparency that will insure full access not to people’s psycho-social profiles, but to the processes themselves.  Each person must be allowed full access to their ‘electronic identities’, and all organizations must make their use of such profiles fully transparent.  This will not happen unless non-technological groups will intervene and set some ‘rules of the game’.  

I hope that this paper will contribute to social intervention in the direction and use of these technologies – a move that is crucial to the social wellbeing of all of us.

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Personal Psycho-Social Web-Derived DNA And Socio-cybernetic Decision-Making
« Reply #2 on: February 26, 2011, 04:59:47 PM »
"Tools for analyzing technological changes: a must for innovation journalism professionals and students"

Noam Lemelshtrich Latar speaks at IJ-4 Conference at Stanford University
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=4134043778183150871
1:02:31  - 3 years ago

Noam Lemelshtrich Latar speaks at IJ-4, the Fourth Conference on Innovation Journalism, at Stanford University May 21-23 2007.
=====================

Noam Lemelshtrich Latar is the founding Dean of the Sammy Ofer School of Communication at IDC, the leading private university in Israel. He is one of the founders of the Tel Aviv U school of journalism. He introduced the concepts of cybernetics and decision making to the study of journalism, and presented the concept of Social DNA in 2004. Dr Lemelshtrich Latar has shared his career between journalism and the innovation industry, and has been Chairman and CEO of a leading Israeli industry and Chairman of a private High Tech startup Venture Capital firm.

Dr. Noam Lemelshtrich Latar is the founding dean of Sammy Ofer School of Communications at IDC Herzliya. A pioneer of new media research and education, among the first to study and publish on interactive communication and the integration of feedback technology into small group discussions. He was one of the founders of the Community Dialog Project at MIT in the Human Machine Systems Laboratory. His current research focuses on data mining and AI influence on the media. http://portal.idc.ac.il/en/schools/Communications/conf/ComCul/Documents/Noam_Lemelshtrich_Latar_Bio_Eng.pdf

Profile
Dr. Noam Lemelshtrich-Latar is the Chairman of LatarTech Holdings Ltd. Dr. Lemelshtrich-Latar is the President of Migdal Haemek Technology Center from May 1999. He was the Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of Lego Irrigation Ltd. Dr. Lemelshtrich-Latar is currently a Director at Hydro Industries Ltd. and SerCoNet Ltd. He is also a Member of Steering Committee at Hubert Burda Center since 1988.

Education
MS-Stanford University
BS-University of California
PhD-Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Other Affiliations
Stanford University
University of California
SerCoNet Ltd.
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Hydro Industries Ltd.
Hubert Burda Center
Migdal Haemek Technology Center
Elgo Irrigation Ltd.

http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/people/../../stocks/private/person.asp?privcapId=604109

Director-SerCoNet Ltd.
SerCoNet Ltd. provides home networking solutions for carriers and subscribers in Israel and internationally. The company offers WirePlus technology, which enables users to get coverage in every corner of the building with the maximum bandwidth, as well as plugs into existing telephone, data, or cable jacks, placing wireless connections where people need them. Its solution comprises WirePlus Wireless LAN Distribution System, a WLAN architecture that transmits Wi-Fi signals over structured wiring; WirePlus XTN Outlet, which creates an instant wireline backbone that propagates Wi-Fi signals, assuring high-speed and low latency coverage in every room where it is needed;
http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/../../stocks/private/snapshot.asp?privcapId=950549

Director-Hydro Industries Ltd.
Hydro Industries Ltd. develops and markets gardening products in the United States, Europe, Australia, and internationally. It offers NO-CRANK/ReelSmart line of automatic and retractable hose reels, as well as hose reels with hoses; and various spare parts. The company offers its products based on its Hydro-Pro system, a water powered engine that converts water pressure into other forms of energy, such as propulsion. It offers its products through retail chains, including do-it-yourself retail chains, mass merchandisers, clubs, TV shopping channels, hardware stores, and nurseries, as well as through online and catalog retailers. The company was founded in 2003 and is based in Rosh Haayin, Israel
http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/../../stocks/private/snapshot.asp?privcapId=9221640

All eyes are opened, or opening, to the rights of man. The general spread of the light of science has already laid open to every view the palpable truth, that the mass of mankind has not been born with saddles on their backs, nor a favored few booted and spurred, ready to ride them legitimately

Offline Dig

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« Reply #3 on: February 26, 2011, 05:17:37 PM »
Well...6 years since writing that paper...Noam is still a fricking psychopathic nutcase...

http://www.herzliyaconference.org/_Uploads/3035Newmediafinal.pdf

All eyes are opened, or opening, to the rights of man. The general spread of the light of science has already laid open to every view the palpable truth, that the mass of mankind has not been born with saddles on their backs, nor a favored few booted and spurred, ready to ride them legitimately

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http://meridian361.com/storage/Herzliya_2010.pdf
Page 1

1
Sunday, January 31, 2010
16:30-19:00
Opening Session: The Balance of Israel's National Security
Chair: Maj. Gen. (res.) Danny Rothschild, Director, Institute for Policy and Strategy; Chair, Annual Herzliya Conference Series
Dr. Uzi Arad, National Security Advisor to the Prime Minister; Chairman, National Security Council, Prime Minister's Office
Maj. Gen. Benjamin (Benny) Gantz, Deputy Chief of Staff, IDF
Amb. Yossi Gal, Director-General, Ministry of Foreign Affairs
MK Isaac Herzog, Minister of Social Affairs and Social Services
----------
Herzliya Indices
Prof. Rafi Melnick, Provost, IDC Herzliya
Prof. Gabriel Ben-Dor, Haifa University
Concluding Address: Prof. Uriel Reichman, President, IDC Herzliya
19:45-21:00
Inaugural Ceremony
C h a i r :
Prof. Uriel Reichman, President, IDC Herzliya
G r e e t i n g s : Ms. Yael German, Mayor of Herzliya
Prof. Alex Mintz, Dean, Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy and Strategy, IDC Herzliya
K e y n o t e A d d r e s s : Dr. Dominique Strauss-Kahn, Managing Director, International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Concluding Remarks: Prof. Stanley Fischer, Governor of the Bank of Israel
21:15
Opening Reception
Greetings: Mr. Richard D. Heideman, Chairman, International Advisory Board of the Herzliya Conference
Program Page 2

2
Monday, February 1, 2010
08:30-10:15
Still Special? US-Israel Relations
MK Tzipi Livni, Head of the Opposition; Fmr. Minister of Foreign Affairs
----------
MK Daniel Ayalon, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs
H.E. James B. Cunningham, Ambassador of the United States to Israel
Amb. Alfred Moses, Chairman, UN Watch
Mr. Malcolm Hoenlein, Executive Vice Chairman, Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations
Moderator: Aluf Benn, Haaretz
10:30-11:45
Winning the Battle of the Narrative: Strategic Communication for Israel
Mr. Martin Kace, President, Empax
Dr. Josef Joffe, Publisher-Editor, Die Zeit
Mr. Ido Aharoni, Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Mr. Eyal Arad, Chairman and Founding Partner, Euro RSCG Israel Group
Moderator: Mr. Goor Tsalalyachin, King's College London
10:30-12:00
Israel and the OECD: Benefits and Costs
MK Benjamin Ben-Eliezer, Minister of Industry, Trade, and Labor
Mr. Nicola Bonucci, Director for Legal Affairs, OECD
Mr. Dan Catarivas, Director, Division of Foreign Trade and International
Relations, Manufacturers' Association of Israel
Mr. Dror Strum, President, The Israeli Institute for Economic Planning
Dr. Yossi Inbar, Director-General, Ministry of Environmental Protection
Amb. Irit Ben-Abba, Deputy Director-General for Economic Affairs, Ministry of
Foreign Affairs
Moderator: Ms. Nehama Ronen, Fmr. Director-General, Ministry of
Environmental Protection
12:15-13:45
Security, Economy, and the Peace Process
Sir Ronald Cohen, Chairman, The Portland Trust
Ms. Valerie Hoffenberg, Special Representative for the Economic,
Cultural, Commercial, Educational, and Environmental Dimensions of the
Middle East Peace Process, France
Mr. Yaacov Peri, Chairman, Mizrahi-Tfahot Bank and Former Head of the
Israel Security Agency
Mr. Sharon Kedmi, Director-General, Ministry of Industry, Trade, and
Employment
Mr. Yosef Maiman, President, Merhav Group
Moderator: Brig. Gen. (res.) Eival Giladi, Director, Portland Trust Israel
----------
MK Silvan Shalom, Vice Prime Minister and Minister of Regional
Cooperation
12:15-13:45
Israel's Next Engine of Growth? Green Economy and Cleantech
MK Gilad Erdan, Minister of Environmental Protection
----------
Mr. Martin Kace, President, Empax
Prof. Leah Boehm, Member, National Council for Research and Development;
Chief Scientist, Israel Aerospace Industries
Mr. Peter L. Corsell, CEO, Gridpoint Inc.; Fmr. Chairman of the World
Economic Forum’s Council on Sustainable Energy
Mr. John (Ionannis) Antoniadis, CEO, Rosebud Energie Deutschland GmbH
Moderator: Dr. Isaac Berzin, Founding Director, Institute for Renewable Energy
Policy, IDC Herzliya
12:15-13:45
Winning the Battle of the Narrative: Getting the Message Out
Dr. Noam Lemelshtrich Latar, Founding Dean, Sammy Ofer
School of Communications, IDC Herzliya
Amb. Ron Prosor, Ambassador of Israel to the UK
Mr. Yarden Vatikai, Director of National Information, Prime
Minister's Office
Mr. Gidi Grinstein, President and Founder, Reut Institute
Mr. Lior Chorev, Founding Partner, Euro RSCG Israel Group
Ms. Lorna Fitzsimons, CEO, BICOM
Moderator: Mr. Menashe Raz, Channel 1, IBA Page 3

3
14:30-16:30
Prospects of Peace: The Regional Dimension
MK Lt. Gen. (res.) Shaul Mofaz, Former Minister of Defense; Kadima Party
Prof. Amb. Daniel C. Kurtzer, Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University
Mr. Elliott Abrams, Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies, Council on Foreign Relations
Dr. Dan Schueftan, Director, National Security Studies Center, University of Haifa
Maj. Gen. (res.) Danny Rothschild, Director, Institute for Policy and Strategy, IDC Herzliya; Chair, Annual Herzliya Conference
Series
Maj. Gen. (res.) Amos Gilead, Head, Political-Military Branch, Ministry of Defense
Moderator: Mr. Raviv Druker, Channel 10
----------
MK Dan Meridor, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Intelligence and Atomic Energy
17:00-18:45
Primus inter Pares? The US and the Global Order
Hon. Ferenc Gyurcsány, Fmr. Prime Minister of Hungary
Amb. Dr. Richard N. Haass, President, Council on Foreign Relations
Amb. Igor Neverov, Ambassador of the Russian Federation to Sweden
Amb. Yoshiji Nogami, President, Japan Institute of International Affairs
Prof. Shlomo Avineri, Hebrew University of Jerusalem; Fmr. Director-General of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Moderator: Dr. Josef Joffe, Publisher-Editor, Die Zeit; Hoover Institute, Stanford University
----------
Hon. Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Leader of the Opposition, Germany; Fmr. Minister of Foreign Affairs of Germany
19:45-21:30
Climate Change – The Global Challenge
Chair: Mr. Israel Makov, Chairman of the Board, Institute for Policy and Strategy, IDC Herzliya
Prof. Thomas Schelling, Distinguished University Professor, University of Maryland; Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences
Laureate
Emerging from the Crisis? Challenges to the Global Economy
Prof. Jacob Frenkel, Chairman, JPMorgan Chase International; Chairman, Group of Thirty (G-30); Fmr. Governor of the Bank of
Israel
Mr. Mortimer B. Zuckerman, Editor-in-Chief, U.S. News & World Report
Dr. Joseph Bachar, Chairman, Board of Directors, Bank Discount
Moderator: Mr. Sever Plotzker, Yediot Ahronot Page 4

4
Tuesday, February 2, 2010
08:30-09:45
Teaching Jewish Identity and Heritage
Rabbi Aryeh Deri
MK Prof. Yuli Tamir, Fmr. Minister of Education
Maj. Gen. (res.) Elazar Stern, CEO, Genesis Foundation
Moderator: Mr. Menashe Raz, Channel 1, IBA
08:30-09:45
Gas or Nuclear: Israel's Electricity Market 2025
Mr. Shaul Tzemach, Director General, Ministry of National Infrastructure
Mr. Amos Lasker, CEO, Israel Electric Corporation Ltd
Brig. Gen. (res.) Uzi Eilam, Member, National Council for Research and
Development; Senior Research Fellow, Institute for National Security Studies
Mr. Gideon Tadmor, CEO, Delek Energy
Dr. Steven W. Popper,Senior Economist, RAND
Moderator: Yehezkel Kugler, President, Kugler Development & Investments
Ltd.
10:00-11:15
Breaking the Global Oil Addiction: Alternative Sources for Fueling Transportation
Mr. R. James Woolsey, Venture Partner, VantagePoint
Venture Partners; Fmr. Director of the CIA
Mr. Yossie Hollander, Chairman, The Israeli Institute for Economic Planning
Dr. Paul Werbos, Program Director,
US National Science Foundation
Moderator: Mr. Guy Rolnick, Founder & Editor-in-Chief, TheMarker; Deputy
Publisher, Haaretz
10:00-11:30
Investing in Future Growth: Israel's Civilian R&D Infrastructures
Prof. Oded Abramsky, Chairman, National Council for Research and
Development
----------
Prof. Hermona Soreq, Member, National Council for Research and
Development; Faculty of Science, Hebrew University
Prof. Moshe Oron, Member, National Council for Research and Development;
Chief Scientist, KiloLambda Technologies
Prof. Yadin Dudai, Member, National Council for Research and Development;
Weizmann Institute for Science
Prof. Mina Teicher, Member, National Council for Research and Development;
Department of Mathematics and Gonda Brain Research Center, Bar-Ilan
University
Prof. David Horn, Member, National Council for Research and Development ;
School of Physics and Astronomy, Tel Aviv University
Moderator: Dr. Yitzhak Noy, Israel Radio
----------
MK Prof. Daniel Hershkowitz, Minister of Science and Technology
11:15-12:45
Breaking the Global Oil Addiction: Israel's Role
Dr. Gal Luft, Executive Director, Institute for the Analysis of Global Security
Prof. Eugene Kandel, Head, National Economic Council, The Prime Minister's
Office
Mr. Lucien Yehuda Bronicki, Chairman and Chief Technology Officer, Ormat
Technologies Inc.
Prof. Moti Herskowitz, Vice-President and Dean for R&D, Ben Gurion
University of the Negev
Dr. Orna Berry, Venture Partner, Gemini Israel
Moderator: Mr. Yossie Hollander, President, Israeli Institute for Economic
Planning
----------
MK Dr. Uzi Landau, Minister of National Infrastructures*
11:45-13:15
Israel's National Education and School System: Preparing the Next Generation for
the 21st Century
Mr. Shraga Brosh, President, Manufacturers' Association of Israel
Ms. Maxine Fassberg, General-Manager, Intel Israel
Ms. Gila Ben-Har, Director, Center for Educational Technology
Brig. Gen. (res.) Yakov Nagel, Deputy Head, R&D Directorate, Ministry of
Defense
Mr. Haim Rousso, Member, National Council for Research and Development;
Executive Vice President for Engineering and Technology Excellence, Elbit
Systems
Moderator: Prof. Nimrod Aloni, Head of the Institute for Educational Thought,
Seminar Hakibutzim College
----------
MK Gideon Sa'ar, Minister of Education Page 5

5
13:30-15:15
The Quest for Effective Governance
Mr. Eyal Gabbai, General-Director, Prime Minister's Office
MK Yariv Levin, Chairman, Knesset House Committee
Judge Mishael Cheshin, Justice (ret.), Israel Supreme Court
Mr. Isaac Devash, Co-founder, Atidim – Cadets for Public Sector
Prof. Suzie Navot, School of Law, College of Management Academic Studies
Prof. David H. Rosenbloom, Chair Professor of Public Management, City
University of Hong Kong
Moderator: Mr. Dror Strum, President, The Israeli Institute for Economic
Planning
14:00-15:30
Elderly Population in Israel: Social and Welfare Policy Dilemmas
Opening Remarks: Mr. Chaim Topol, Actor
Prof. Arie Rimmerman, School of Social Work, Haifa University
Prof. Jack Habib, Brookdale Institute
Mr. Moti Vinter, Deputy Director, Ministry of Welfare and Social Services
Mr. Avigdor Kaplan, Chairman of the Association of Life Insurance Companies
of Israel Ltd; CEO, Klal Insurance
Mr. Aharon Azulay, Director-General, Ministry for Senior Citizens
Moderator: Prof. Jacob Gindin, University of Haifa; Clalit Health Services
----------
MK Dr. Lea Nass, Deputy Minister, Ministry for Senior Citizens
16:00-17:30
Europe's Role on the World Stage and in the Middle East
Hon. Dr. Martin Barták, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defense,
Czech Republic
Hon. Miguel Ángel Moratinos, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Spain
Moderator: Mr. Tommy Steiner, Senior Research Fellow, Institute for
Policy and Strategy, IDC Herzliya
15:15-17:00
Economic Development of the Israeli Arab Communities
MK Dr. Ahmad Tibi, Deputy Speaker of the Knesset
Mr. Ayman Saif, Director, Economic Development Authority in the Minority
Sector, Prime Minister's Office
Mr. Samer Nachleh, Owner, Nachleh Coffee
Mr. Inas Said, CEO, Galil Software
Dr. Yaacov Sheinin, Founding CEO, Economic Models
Mr. Dov Lautman, Chairman, Advisory Council of the Authority for Economic
Development in the Minorities Sector
Moderator: Nadav Peri, Channel 10
-------
MK Prof. Avishay Braverman, Minister of Minority Affairs
15:45-17:00
Realigning Government, Business, and Civil Society: Competition or
Partnership?
Mr. Nachum Itzkovitz, Director-General, Ministry of Social
Affairs and Social Services
Mr. Gil-Ad Harish, Director and Founder, La'Sova
Mr. Elie Elalouf, General Director, Rashi Foundation
Mr. Zvi Ziv, Fmr. CEO of Bank Hapoalim; Chairman, Ma'alah
Mr. Israel Makov, Chairman of the Board of Directors, Institute
for Policy and Strategy
Moderator: Ms. Ruth Sinai, Commentator on Social Affairs
----------
Dr. Arthur C. Brooks, President, American Enterprise Institute
(AEI)
17:30-18:15
The Presidential Address
Chairman: Mr. Harvey Krueger, Vice Chairman, Barclays Capital
H.E. Shimon Peres, President of the State of Israel
18:20-19:40
US-Europe-Israeli Trilateral Relationship: The Strategic Dimension
Dr. Christian Schmidt, MdB, Parliamentary State Secretary, Federal Ministry of Defense, Germany
Dr. Ronald D. Asmus, Executive Director, Transatlantic Center and Strategic Planning, German Marshall Fund of the US
Gen. Klaus Naumann, Fmr. Chairman, North Atlantic Military Committee
Amb. Ran Curiel, Head of Mission to the European Union and NATO
Lt. Gen. (ret.) Dennis Cavin, Vice President of Air and Missile Defense Strategic Initiatives, Lockheed Martin
Moderator: Dr. Constanze Stelzenmüller, Senior Transatlantic Fellow, German Marshall Fund of the USPage 6

6
Wednesday, February 3, 2010
08:30-10:00
The Community Front: An Integrated Approach to Personal Security
Police Commissioner Raymond Walter Kelly, Police Commissioner NYPD
Commissioner Dudi Cohen, Inspector General, Israel Police
----------
Mr. Aharon Abramowicz, Fmr. Director-General of the Ministry of Justice
Mr. Hagai Peleg, Director-General, Ministry of Public Security
Police Maj. Gen. Yoav Segalovitz, Head, Investigation and Intelligence
Division
Ms. Rachel Sharvit, Deputy Director-General, Ministry of Social Affairs and
Social Services
Mr. Yaacov Hecht, Director, Institute for Democratic Education
Moderator: Dr. Ilana Dayan, Channel 2
08:30-10:15
The US and the Arch of Instability: Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iraq
Dr. Colin Kahl, US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East
Dr. Kori Schake, Research Fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford University
Brig. Gen. (res.) Yosef Kuperwasser, Deputy Director General, Ministry of
Strategic Affairs
Mr. Elmar Brok, MEP, Chairman, European Parliament Delegation for
Relations with the United States
Moderator: Dr. Neil Livingstone, Chairman and CEO, ExecutiveAction LLC
10:30-11:45
Domestic Political Dynamics and Stability in the Middle East
Ms. Roya Hakakian, Author
Prof. David Menashri, Dean of Special Programs; Head, The Center for Iranian
Studies, Tel Aviv University
Dr. Israel Elad Altman, Senior Research Fellow, Institute for Policy and
Strategy, IDC Herzliya
Ms. Judith Miller, City Journal
Mr. Zvi Yehezkeli, Channel 10
Moderator: Prof. Shelly Deane, Bowdoin College
10:30-11:45
The 20th Anniversary of the Immigration of the Soviet Jewry to Israel: Lessons and
Current Challenges
MK Sofa Landver, Minister of Immigrant Absorption
----------
Dr. Vladimir (Ze'ev) Khanin, Chief Scientist, Ministry of Immigrant Absorption
Mr. Yaakov Hain, Deputy CEO, Israeli Electric Corporation
Prof. Mikhail Chlenov, Secretary General, Euro-Asian Jewish Congress
Ms. Naomi Ben-Ami, Head of Nativ, Prime Minister's Office
Mr. Mark Meirson, RTBI
Moderator: Ms. Dorit Golender, Ambassador-Designate to the Russian
Federation
11:45-13:15
Rising to the Challenge of Radical Indoctrination
Baroness Pauline Neville-Jones, Shadow Security Minister, House of Lords
Prof. Martin Kramer, Senior Fellow, Shalem Center; National Security Studies
Program, Harvard University
Mr. Matthew Sinclair, Research Director, TaxPayers' Alliance
Dr. Rami Nasrallah, International Peace and Cooperation Center
Moderator: Dr. Shmuel Bar, Director of Studies, Institute for Policy and
Strategy, IDC Herzliya
----------
President José María Aznar, Fmr. Prime Minister of Spain; President,
Foundation for Social Studies and Analysis
12:00-13:15
Civil Preparedness in the Israeli Home Front: the Role of the Civil Society
MK Maj. Gen. (res.) Matan Vilnai, Deputy Minister of Defense
Mr. Gidi Grinstein, President and Founder, Reut Institute
Mr. Amos Shapira, CEO, Cellcom
Brig. Gen. (res.), Dr. Ariel Heimann, General Manager, Davidson Institute of
Science Education, Weizmann Institute of Science
Dr. Deborah Blum, Israel Trauma Coalition
Moderator: Mr. Yoav Limor, Channel 1, IBA
20:30-21:30
Prospects of Peace: The Israeli-Palestinian Track
Chair: Maj. Gen. (res.) Danny Rothschild, Director, Institute for Policy and Strategy, IDC Herzliya; Chair, Annual Herzliya Conference
Series
MK Lt. Gen. (res.) Ehud Barak, Minister of Defense
H.E. Dr. Salam Fayyad, Prime Minister, Palestinian Authority Page 7

7
14:00-15:15
Regulating the Capital Markets and Pension Savings
MK Yitzhak Cohen, Deputy Minister of Finance
Mr. Giora Ofer, CEO, Bank Discount
Mr. Gil Yaniv, Deputy CEO, Migdal Group
Mr. Meir Uzan, Founder and Chairman, Shekel Group
Prof. Yoram Eden, College of Management – Academic Studies
Moderator: Prof. Amir Barnea, Founding Dean, IDC Herzliya
14:00-15:30
Iran as a Nuclear Threshold Country – Potential Strategic Implications
Amb. Tim Guldiman, Fmr. Swiss Ambassador to Iran; Professor of
International Relations, University of Frankfurt
Dr. Patrick M. Cronin, Senior Advisor and Senior Director of the Asia-Pacific
Security Program, Center for New American Security
Prof. Francois Heisbourg, Chairman, International Institute for Strategic
Studies and of the Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Dr. Shmuel Bar, Director of Studies, Institute for Policy and Strategy, IDC
Herzliya
Moderator: Sir Michael Pakenham, Senior Advisor, Access Industries; Fmr.
Chairman, UK Joint Intelligence Committee
----------
MK Lt. Gen. (res.) Moshe Ya'alon, Vice Prime Minister and Minister of
Strategic Affairs
15:30-17:00
Israel's Economic Challenges: Leveraging the Crisis
Mr. Haim Shani, Director General, Ministry of Finance
Prof. Rafi Melnick, Provost, IDC Herzliya
Mr. Ahron Fogel, Chairman, Migdal; Chairman, Advisory Board of the Bank of
Israel
Prof. Daniel Tsiddon, Vice President, Capital Markets Division, Leumi Group
Moderator: Idan Grinbaum, Deputy Editor, Calcalist
----------
Prof. Stanley Fischer, Governor of the Bank of Israel
15:30-17:00
Managing the Risk of Break-Out: A Poly-Nuclear Middle East and Global Proliferation
Prof. Thomas Schelling, Distinguished University Professor, University of
Maryland; Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences Laureate
Prof. Hitoshi Tanaka, Fmr. Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Japan; Senior
Fellow, Japan Center for International Exchange (JCIE)
Prof. Paul Bracken, Professor of Management and Political Science, Yale
University
Dr. Bruno Tertrais, Senior Research Fellow, Fondation pour la Recherche
Stratégique (FRS)
Prof. Maj. Gen. (res.) Itzhak Ben-Israel, Tel-Aviv University
Moderator: Mr. Adam Ward, Director of Studies, IISS
17:15-18:30
New Wars in Search for New Laws: International Law and the Contemporary
Battlefield
Prof. George Fletcher, Cardoso Professor of Jurisprudence, Columbia Law
School
Prof. Amnon Rubinstein, Radzyner School of Law, IDC Herzliya
Mr. Liav Orgad, Radzyner School of Law, IDC Herzliya
Dr. Boaz Ganor, Director, International Institute for Counter-Terrorism Policy,
IDC Herzliya
Moderator: Ms. Dvorah Chen, Dvorah Chen Law Offices
17:15-18:30
Adjusting to Climate Change: A National Security Dimension
Mr. Efi Stenzler, Chairman of the Board, Jewish National Fund
Dr. Orr Karassin, School of Law, Sapir Academic College; Member of the
Board, Jewish National Fund
Prof. Pinhas Alpert, Porter School for Environmental Studies, Tel Aviv
University
Dr. Yeshayahu Bar-Or, Chief Scientist, Ministry of Environmental Protection
Prof. Arnon Sofer, Chaikin Chair in Geostrategy, University of Haifa
19:45
The 2010 Herzliya Address
C h a i r : Prof. Uriel Reichman, President, IDC Herzliya
The Herzliya Address: Hon. Benjamin Netanyahu, Prime Minister of Israel
Concluding Remarks: Gen. (res.) Danny Rothschild, Director, Institute for Policy and Strategy; Chair, Annual Herzliya Conference Series Page 8

8
Herzliya Roundtable Sessions*
Perceptions of American Power: Implications for Global Order and the Middle East
Chair: Dr. Dov S. Zakheim
, Fmr. US Undersecretary of Defense
Discussants:
Mr. Elliott Abrams, Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies, Council on Foreign Relations
Dr. Samantha Ravich, Fmr. National Security Advisor to the US Vice President
Prof. Amb. Daniel C. Kurtzer, Professor Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University
Mr. Jonathan Paris, Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council
The Dawn of the Poly-nuclear Middle East: Implications for Deterrence
Chair: Dr. Shmuel Bar, Director of Studies, Institute for Policy and Strategy, IDC Herzliya
Discussants:
Prof. Thomas Schelling, Distinguished University Professor, University of Maryland; Nobel Memorial
Prize in Economic Sciences Laureate
Prof. Kori Schake, Research Fellow, Hoover Institution
Israel and the West: Deepening Relations with NATO and the EU
Chair: Ambassador Dr. Oded Eran, Director, Institute for National Security Studies(INSS)
Discussants:
Dr. Ronald D. Asmus, Executive Director, Transatlantic Center and Strategic Planning, German
Marshall Fund of the US
H.E. Michael Žantovskı, Ambassador of the Czech Republic to the United Kingdom
Mr. Tommy Steiner, Senior Research Fellow, Institute for Policy and Strategy, IDC Herzliya; Director,
Atlantic Forum of Israel
The New US Missile Defense Architecture: Implications for Israel
Chair: Maj. Gen. (res.) Eitan Ben Eliyahu, CEO, Sentry Technology Group; Fmr. Commander of the
Air Force
Discussants:
Lt. Gen. (ret.) Dennis Cavin, Vice President of Air and Missile Defense Strategic Initiatives, Lockheed
Martin
Mr. Uzi Rubin, Fmr. Director, Israel Missile Defense Organization at the Ministry of Defense
Dr. Oded Brosh, Senior Research Fellow, Institute for Policy and Strategy, IDC Herzliya
Risk Management and New Methodologies for Strategic Planning
Chair: Mr. Eran Etzion, Director of Policy Planning, Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Discussants:
Prof. Paul Bracken, Professor of Management and Political Science, Yale University
Brig. Gen. Dr. Michael Herzog, Envoy of the Prime Minister and the Minister of Defence to the Peace
Process
Dr. Steven W. Popper, Senior Economist, RAND
Winning the Battle of the Narrative: An Agenda for Action
Chair: Col. (res.) Miri Eisin, Fmr. Foreign Media Advisor to the Prime Minister
Discussants:
Ms. Fern Oppenheim, Applied Marketing Innovations
Dr. Emanuele Ottolenghi, Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Poisoning the Future: Fighting Hate Indoctrination and De-legitimization
Chair: Mr. Elias Fattal
Discussants:
Mr. Richard D. Heideman, Chairman, International Advisory Board of the Herzliya Conference; Honorary
President, Bna'I Brith International
Dr. Shmuel Bar, Director of Studies, Institute for Policy and Strategy, IDC Herzliya
Mr. Itamar Marcus, Founder and Director, Palestinian Media Watch
Prof. Martin Kramer, Senior Fellow, Shalem Center; National Security Studies Program, Harvard University
Mr. Matthew Sinclair, Research Director, Taxpayers Alliance
* The Herzliya Roundtable sessions were held under the Chatham House Rule and attended by invitation only.
All eyes are opened, or opening, to the rights of man. The general spread of the light of science has already laid open to every view the palpable truth, that the mass of mankind has not been born with saddles on their backs, nor a favored few booted and spurred, ready to ride them legitimately

Offline citizenx

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Very interesting connections between the Ultra Zionists (Zionist Extremists) and cyberneticization, Dig.

Very interesting.

Offline adissenter2

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ΜΟΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ! Molon Labe! Come and take them!

Offline bigron

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  • RON PAUL FOR PRESIDENT 2012
   
Army of Fake Social Media Friends to Promote Propaganda

Does a code of ethics still exist in Intelligence firms? Does it disappear behind closed doors, dirty deeds done in the dark and used against the American people who are supposed to be free to express themselves?

By Darlene Storm

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article27577.htm

February 27, 2011 "Computerworld" --  It's recently been revealed that the U.S. government contracted HBGary Federal for the development of software which could create multiple fake social media profiles to manipulate and sway public opinion on controversial issues by promoting propaganda. It could also be used as surveillance to find public opinions with points of view the powers-that-be didn't like. It could then potentially have their "fake" people run smear campaigns against those "real" people. As disturbing as this is, it's not really new for U.S. intelligence or private intelligence firms to do the dirty work behind closed doors.
 
EFF previously warned that Big Brother wants to be your friend for social media surveillance. While the FBI Intelligence Information Report Handbook (PDF) mentioned using "covert accounts" to access protected information, other government agencies endorsed using security exploits to access protected information.

It's not a big surprise that the U.S. military also wants to use social media to its benefit. Last year, Public Intelligence published the U.S. Air Force social media guide which gave 10 tips for social media such as, "The enemy is engaged in this battlespace and you must engage there as well." Number three was "DON'T LIE. Credibility is critical, without it, no one cares what you have to say...it's also punishable by the UCMJ to give a false statement." The Air Force used the chart below to show how social media influences public opinion.



The 6th Contracting Squadron at MacDill Air Force Base sought the development of Persona Management Software which could be used for creating and managing fake profiles on social media sites to distort the truth and make it appear as if there was a generally accepted agreement on controversial issues. "Personas must be able to appear to originate in nearly any part of the world and can interact through conventional online services and social media platforms." What happened to don't lie and the Uniform Code of Military Justice?

Everything revealed after Anonymous leaked emails from private security firm HBGary Federal is disturbing on many levels. However, the Daily Kos said with the Persona Management Software it would take very few people to create "an army of sockpuppets" which could distort the truth while appearing to be "an entire Brooks Brothers riot online."

So again I ask, what happened to number three . . . the rule about not lying that was also "punishable by the UCMJ to give a false statement"?

President and CEO of Plessas Experts Network, Inc, Kirby Plessas pointed out some of the unethical and potentially illegal activities that Aaron Barr's leaked emails suggested like "Chumming and baiting" which sounded like "entrapment of some sort." There would be no warrant for the data collected on individuals which could then be stored for how long? "THIS is the entire reason Intelligence Oversight was created -- to avoid this sort of thing from ever happening again."

According to Redacted News, the leaked emails showed how names can be cross-referenced across social media sites to collect information on people and then used to gain access to those social ciricles. The emails also talked of how Facebook could be used to spread government messages:

Even the most restrictive and security conscious of persons can be exploited. Through the targeting and information reconnaissance phase, a person's hometown and high school will be revealed. An adversary can create a classmates.com account at the same high school and year and find out people you went to high school with that do not have Facebook accounts, then create the account and send a friend request.

Under the mutual friend decision, which is where most people can be exploited, an adversary can look at a targets friend list if it is exposed and find a targets most socially promiscuous friends, the ones that have over 300-500 friends, friend them to develop mutual friends before sending a friend request to the target. To that end friend's accounts can be compromised and used to post malicious material to a targets wall. When choosing to participate in social media an individual is only as protected as his/her weakest friend.


MORE

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article27577.htm

 

Offline Dig

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Re: Personal Psycho-Social Web-Derived DNA And Socio-cybernetic Decision-Making
« Reply #8 on: September 10, 2011, 12:38:08 PM »
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All eyes are opened, or opening, to the rights of man. The general spread of the light of science has already laid open to every view the palpable truth, that the mass of mankind has not been born with saddles on their backs, nor a favored few booted and spurred, ready to ride them legitimately