MUST READ:Behavioral Modeling and Simulation:From Individuals to Societies(2008)

[squarepusher]

This is a big report - I'll highlight the most explosive comments (more to come as we go along)

http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=12169



On Games/MMOGs and their usefulness for DoD



"Games that demand great mental focus do poorly in the market and typically lose player interest. M&S systems that are embedded in such an interaction  paradigm need to take this into account if the expectation is to make the M&S system as engaging as a commercial game. The desired outcome for this paradigm is that the M&S system will be so engaging that soldiers will continue to work with the simulation during personal time. Many training simulations derived from the game America's Army (described in more detail below) and similar games belong to this category (Zyda, Mayberry, McCree, and Davis, 2005).

Games also contain a set of engaging and immersive models, models that look very interesting from the perspective of DoD (Department of Defense). For example, a large number of meetings start out with the phrase "if only we could build an engaging game like SimCity" - that is, SimNavy for the Navy, SimAir for the AIr Force, etc. (Zyda et al., 1998).



Probably the most interesting aspect of games like SimCity, The Sims is that these games were built for relatively small amounts of money and on schedule, and they still perform as extremely successful entertainment. DoD M&S programs with budgets two orders of magnitude larger have failed to deliver even a tenth of the capacity to create a space of potential outcomes for consideration (Bennington, 1995).


The size of the financial stakes for MMOG game companies means that getting the attention of a game development partner may rely more on personal connections or a fully funded joint basic research agenda than on any financial incentives that DoD could offer.

This is why Arnold Schwarzenegger and other politicians came to Infinity Ward's HQ to see how their game (Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2) was coming along. They serve a dual purpose as military simulators.



We are near the point of diminishing returns for graphics improvements, and people are now focusing on "fully interactive worlds". The best example of the fully interactive world style is Rockstar's Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas (GT-SA). While the story may lack redeeming social value, the game is so popular because the game player can interact with everything in the game's world in a nonlinear fashion.

The fact that there are missions to complete in GTA: SA is perhaps unimportant. It is the journey and and the accompanying interaction that immerse and retain the player. If one wanted to have one game as representative of state of the art, then GTA SA is that game with its fully interactive world paradigm.

Strategy Games And Using Them In Conjunction with CAESAR III/Pythia/some other course of action generator-outcome generator

This is why they used Jane's Fleet Command in conjunction with CAESAR II/Eb in that previous document. These games represent the 'visual' aspect of the logic that CAESAR III/Pythia provides. Also note that they want to have 'precognitive' abilities - like in Minority Report.

CAESAR III, Temper, Pythia, Data Fusion Ptech AI wargame C2 process modeling
http://forum.prisonplanet.com/index.php?topic=102701.msg926209#msg926209



As in Sims 2, Civilization IV allows the player to explore possibility spaces and potential outcomes. It is that capability that makes the modelling and simulation of these games very interesting to DoD and the Department of Homeland Security. The question is often asked: "How do we connect these games, with near-zero modifications, to real news feeds so that we can compare their predictions against what subsequently happens in the real world?" Of course, these games are written to explore potential outcomes and not to be predictive, but there is a continual quest to achieve prediction, as in the film "Minority Report".

How about that, eh? Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty' predicted 'ALL' of this - it even predicted it to the level that a CAESAR II/Eb/CAESAR III type system would be linked up to an actual videogame for military/strategic warfare training purposes. And it predicted all of this back in 2001.

[squarepusher]

Although their visuals are far from realistic, and their stories are mostly about worlds that don't exist and quests not linked to real life, the stories are all about fights between good and evil, not unlike today's global war on terrorism. So the thought is to take one or more of these MMOGs, modify the story a bit, put in links to the predictive models to be tested, and then see if one can begin the process of predicting player behavior in the MMOG with connected systems. If that can be done, then perhaps it will be possible to run the models backward to stop insurgencies before they form or interdict them earlier before they gain strength.


NOTE HERE: 'predictive models' - that would be Pythia - and 'run the models backward' - CAESAR III has the functionality to run backwards through its Course of Actions and the sequence of events when devising the next Course of Action.

[squarepusher]

"The set of models inside engaging and immersive commercial games are proprietary and somewhat of a black box. We (DoD and its modeling researchers) cannot look at those models or modify them, other than the parameters exposed from the game's interface or provided via modification tools. We cannot VV&A those models - but we probably haven't really been able to achieve real VV&A with defense models and simulations, either (see Validation, Chapter 8 ). What we do know is that games like The Sims 2 and Civilization IV look quite capable for use in defense problems, if only we could modify them, even slightly, for defense purposes. It would be interesting to know whether one could explore more of the space of potential insurgency outcomes with Civilization IV, developed at a cost of some $20 million, than with JSIMS, developed at a cost of $1.8 billion. Could modelers do that exploration with just the available Civlization IV modification tools?"

Note that they bring up JSIMS (Civil Environment Model) here - they're talking about actually 'supplanting' REAL modeling/temporal analysis/wargaming systems such as CAESAR III/JSIMS with 'custom-modded videogames for DoD'.

"Likewise it should be possible to run experiments in virtual worlds similar to Second Life (http://www.secondlife.com), perhaps with a somewhat less benign set of rules, which would have military and strategic applications. For example, imagine Second Life with sovereign state entities, some of which were motivated to expand and dominate other regions of the game space. What would be the behavioral/organizational reactions of the other players? Is it likely that genuine social experiments could be undertaken in settings like this, at a cost far below JSIMS."

[Xill]

What we do know is that games like The Sims 2 and Civilization IV look quite capable for use in defense problems, if only we could modify them, even slightly, for defense purposes. It would be interesting to know whether one could explore more of the space of potential insurgency outcomes with Civilization IV, developed at a cost of some $20 million, than with JSIMS, developed at a cost of $1.8 billion. Could modelers do that exploration with just the available Civlization IV modification tools?

Modify Civ4? WTF? Even the military soldier wont care about playing a stupid insurgent modified version of Civ4...  

Civilization 4 "War on BS version"... What about discovering the wheel? All the fun is about discovering the wheel

I think those military creeps really are brain damaged.
They really think people act in games like they do in real life, while in fact it is quite the opposite, that's the point, it's A GAME.

[squarepusher]

Military Missions And How IOS Models Can Help


"Massively multiplayer online game (MMOGs) can, in principle, provide such an immersive environment. The value of such systems for mission rehearsal will be increased if the cultural and social models embedded are more socially realistic than those in current games. Dynamic network models hold the promise of providing a dynamic adversary for war-gaming, and the value of such systems will be increased if links can be made between the network models of action, planning, and goal attainment."

Something like 'Empire: Total War' but set in a modern setting is what these guys want methinks and totally customisable - and able to link in to current newsfeeds and business logic provided by Pythia/CAESAR III/some other command and control system.

[squarepusher]

Military Missions And How IOS Models Can Help



Conclusion

"Current military missions and today's operating environment have created a pervasive need for models that can capture and forecast the behavior of humans acting in social units, ranging from small groups and teams to neighborhoods, cultural and ethnic groups, and entire societies. IOS models are needed to understand adversary and nonadversary behavior and to forecast the effects of alternative courses of action on that behavior. Today's broader missions focus not just on COAs for conventional combat with well-identified adversaries, but also on COAs for influencing the attitudes and behaviors of noncombatants at levels of detail ranging from block-by-block urban operations to the stability of nation-states. The COAs to be analyzed include not just military actions but the broader DIME/PMESII dimensions that may influence behavior."


And there you have it - an admission of intent in their own words. These systems are not just meant for insurgents or 'terrorists' - they're meant for the public at large in urban and residential zones, down to the 'shaping' of their behavior.

This ties directly into the following threads:

Commander's Predictive Environment - You're Analyzed Like A Tetris Block
http://forum.prisonplanet.com/index.php?topic=154930.msg926625

Dynamic Network Analysis: Total Tyrannical Control Over Your Social Networks
http://forum.prisonplanet.com/index.php?topic=154941.msg920617

I encourage anyone reading this thread to help me out with reading through this document in full (it's pretty big - as in 400 pages) and picking out the most damning quotes - as it's well worth the cost of admission and I have some other things I'm supposed to attend to (including the 'Known Unknowns' document).

[Dig]

Behavioural Modeling is a preemptor (or a hider of the true intention)...Behaviour Modification

Behavioural Modification = Mind Control

It is a euphemism.

So whenever you see "behavioural Modification" replace it with mind control.

It is illegal, unconstitutional, against the rights of man, common law, god's law, natural law, and every known law in the universe.

And over $100 Billion a year is spent on integrating these mind control projects into every single aspect of our very being for the next 100 generations.

[NinjaGaijin]

I posted on other threads about my gaming - I totally use my gaming time as military simulation.
I work on tactics, strategies and mental combat reflexiveness. I forget the name but it is just like in some Robin Williams film. He owns a toy company that gets bought out by the DoD and it starts making violent war-based video games in order to train the next generation of drone pilots.

Well, of course that was based on truth, I knew that even then.

VBS 1 & 2 is based from a modified engine of Operation Flashpoint / Armed Assault, arguably the most realistic military simulations to date. VBS is utilised by militaries throughout the world to train..

DeceivedPawn in their rambling about Jesse Ventura being a shill argued that my gaming time would not actually give me any additional tactical insight in real world conflict.

Well I would have to disagree as would the DoD.

http://www.vbs2.com/

"Our Mission:

"To create affordable simulation platforms that provide vast, dynamic, high-fidelity virtual environments supported by a comprehensive suite of easy-to-use development tools."
Your Solution:

VBS2™ - Virtual Battlespace 2 - is a fully interactive, three-dimensional training system providing a premium synthetic environment suitable for a wide range of military (or similar) training and experimentation purposes.

Developed by Bohemia Interactive Australia (BIA), VBS2™ offers both virtual and constructive interfaces onto high-fidelity worlds of unparalleled realism.

VBS2™ is used right now by military organisations worldwide including the US Army, USMC, ADF and UK MoD for mission rehearsal, tactical training and simulated combined arms exercises."

[squarepusher]

I posted on other threads about my gaming - I totally use my gaming time as military simulation.
I work on tactics, strategies and mental combat reflexiveness. I forget the name but it is just like in some Robin Williams film. He owns a toy company that gets bought out by the DoD and it starts making violent war-based video games in order to train the next generation of drone pilots.

Well, of course that was based on truth, I knew that even then.

VBS 1 & 2 is based from a modified engine of Operation Flashpoint / Armed Assault, arguably the most realistic military simulations to date. VBS is utilised by militaries throughout the world to train..

DeceivedPawn in their rambling about Jesse Ventura being a shill argued that my gaming time would not actually give me any additional tactical insight in real world conflict.

Well I would have to disagree as would the DoD.

http://www.vbs2.com/

"Our Mission:

"To create affordable simulation platforms that provide vast, dynamic, high-fidelity virtual environments supported by a comprehensive suite of easy-to-use development tools."
Your Solution:

VBS2™ - Virtual Battlespace 2 - is a fully interactive, three-dimensional training system providing a premium synthetic environment suitable for a wide range of military (or similar) training and experimentation purposes.

Developed by Bohemia Interactive Australia (BIA), VBS2™ offers both virtual and constructive interfaces onto high-fidelity worlds of unparalleled realism.

VBS2™ is used right now by military organisations worldwide including the US Army, USMC, ADF and UK MoD for mission rehearsal, tactical training and simulated combined arms exercises."

I just read on Wikipedia that the US Army upgraded to this game engine back in January 2009.

Apparently the predecessor, DARWARS Ambush! Convoy Simulator, was based on the Operation Flashpoint 1 engine (this dates back to 2001 if I remember correctly - quite dated graphics by today's standards).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DARWARS



This smacks of Force XXI - the whole 'virtual reality' headset and virtual weapon that they have retrofitted onto the game.

Thanks for the info BTW so we can nexus this in with all the available evidence/documentation. I'm extremely interested in what they decided upon after this document was written and published (2008). Apparently according to that document they were serious about some kind of customisable game engine replacing JSIMS entirely.

[Dig]

Watch the remake of the movie WARGAMES for some real fun.

[NinjaGaijin]

There is also Full Spectrum Warrior / Full Spectrum Command.. even back in the days of Doom, there was a mod called 'Nam' that soldiers were playing 4 player multiplayer with realistic damage etc. So it's always been a high priority - they want us all desensitised and ready-made with the skills to play with the controls of their drones. As soon as the first nation that has cheap easy to make drone fighters with full remote control from far distances, the advantage would be obvious. They would send waves of fighters to kill real people while they sit back and enjoy the show. With strategic oversight, playing a strategy game, this would also help, the commander co-ordinating the units. So strategy games are important to them too.

All this was shown to me as a child as I read and re-read Orson Scott Card's 'Ender's Game' which is solely about a future based on this type of warfare, with children being trained from 3 psychologically and 5 physically to fight for humanity against the 'evil aliens' (who were actually not interested in Earth at all, but Earth decided it was time for galactic expansion..)

Operation Flashpoint it was indeed the original engine - dated graphics but that's all changed now. Also VBS had enhanced graphics and also many custom packs for wildlife, scenery etc

I'm going to go post one of my last posts for a long time in the personal section now to explain why I won't likely be around in future to post any more or reply to discussions. I really like this forum but my life is now changing and I also won't be able to play any more of these indoctrinating wargames anymore. I'm going to lose my relationship (by neither of our choices) and need to essentially give up most of what I enjoy in life. Fking cancer.

[squarepusher]

The NWO Playing Wargames On Top of GIS Info (Geographical Information System)

http://forum.prisonplanet.com/index.php?topic=156043.0

[NinjaGaijin]

oh. there is also some lame US Navy game for recruitment..

but check this:

http://www.prismthegame.com/

homeland security game set in future.. very shady. never played but heard about when developing, sounded totally programming.

peace out all I gotta go I posted that thread I talked about in personal stories. I'll miss you all.

[chris jones]

Young minds can be influenced. Agreed?

Certainly not all, but a faction can use these high tech kill games and become entranced with them.

I may be wrong, but I am convinced that many a kid leaves behind their PC and war games and steps into the boots.

Just my take. I do remember the effect that John Wayne had on the masses, and the back to battan style fliks.