SITIS Archives - Topic Details
Topic Num: AF071-035 (AirForce)
Title: Innovative Aids: Effects-Based Combat Assessment
Research & Technical Areas: Sensors, Human Systems
Objective: To conduct and explore the implications of effects-based operations on the conduct of combat assessment.
Description: The Assessment step, an intelligence function, of the Monitor, Assess, Plan, Engage loop places great importance on the need to assess the effects of an attack in order to determine the need for immediate re-attack. Effects-based operations (EBO) include the creation and assessment of intermediate as well as cascading effects in attaining the end-state objective derived from the commander’s intent and guidance. These effects may be achieved through the application of kinetic (i.e., high explosive) and/or non-kinetic (e.g., cyber-warfare) weapons. Combat assessment in the context of EBO presents particular challenges in that simple physical destruction may no longer be the sole, meaningful indicator of attack effectiveness. Current assessment systems/practices were derived from past experience with aerial bombardment. There was a direct connection between the size and location of bomb craters and the damage inflicted on the target. The analyst conducting combat assessment in an effects-based operational context now requires innovative tools to assist in carrying out this function. Effects may be non-physical and may be intermediate to the achieving of the desired end-state. Research in cognitive (and, possibly, perceptual) process and in analyst-system interface is required to develop and demonstrate assessment tools appropriate to EBO. Cognitive tasks analyses, a component of a structured cognitive systems engineering process, are required to identify analyst requirements. Capability-based measures of effectiveness are required to support the evaluation of effects-based assessment performance. Assessment tools are required which will be demonstrated to satisfy the speed, accuracy, completeness and analyst confidence of these measures.
PHASE I: Identify and define opportunities for inserting intelligence analyst-aiding technologies appropriate to the conduct of combat assessment tasks in the context of effects-based operations.
PHASE II: Develop and demonstrate intelligence analyst-aiding capabilities for the conduct of effects-based combat assessment. Conduct an example of capability evaluation by applying appropriate capability-based measures of effectiveness.
DUAL USE COMMERCIALIZATION: Military application: Commercialization of this research is highly feasible especially to the military intelligence, homeland security and homeland defense communities. Commercial application: Commercialization of this research is highly feasible. Similar tools to those to be expected to result from this research can be expected to have application to market research, public opinion polling, and consumer advertising campaign assessment.
References: 1. Effects-Based Operations (EBO): A Grand Challenge for the Analytical Community http://www.rand.org/publications/MR/MR1477/
2. Effects-Based Operations: Change in the Nature of Warfare http://www.aef.org/pub/psbook.pdf
3. Air Force Doctrine Document 2-8, Command and Control, 16 Feb 2001 http://www.dtic.mil/doctrine/jel/service_pubs/afd2_8.pdf
4. Combat Assessment http://www.dtic.mil/doctrine/jel/doddict/data/c/01048.html
Table of Contents:
A. New Releases
Conference Proceedings and Documented Briefings
B. About RAND
C. Subscription Information
A. NEW RELEASES
AN EXAMINATION OF THE EFFECTS OF VOLUNTARY SEPARATION INCENTIVES
Authors: Beth J. Asch, John T. Warner
This report uses Defense Manpower Data Center data on Army enlisted personnel to examine whether the Department of Defense's Voluntary Separation Incentive or the Special Separation Bonus (VSI/SSB) program induced substantial separations and whether the program induced more low-quality than high-quality personnel to leave. The analysis suggests that a separation-pay program such as VSI/SSB can be an effective means of inducing separations over and above what would have occurred without such a program.
the research brief: http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB7547
the full report: http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR859/
ARMY DISTANCE LEARNING AND PERSONNEL READINESS
Authors: John D. Winkler, Henry A. Leonard, and Michael G. Shanley
This report summarizes the results of a project that studied ways in which distance learning (DL) technologies could be employed to enhance Army personnel readiness.
the research brief: http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB3028
Read the full report: http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1389/
DEPLOYMENTS AND ARMY PERSONNEL TEMPO
Authors: Ronald E. Sortor, J. Michael Polich
Over the past decade, numerous observers have expressed concerns about "increased tempo" and overseas deployments. This report suggests that the major focus of Army concern about deployments should probably not be on the amount of time that individual soldiers spend overseas (although that should be monitored), but on overall force management, to evenly distribute the burden, minimize short-term readiness impacts, and ensure that longer-term skill development and warfighting capability are sustained.
Read the report: http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1417/
EFFECTS-BASED OPERATIONS (EBO):
A GRAND CHALLENGE FOR THE ANALYTICAL COMMUNITY
Author: Paul K. Davis
Effects-based operations (EBO) are defined for this report as operations conceived and planned in a systems framework that considers the full range of direct, indirect, and cascading effects--effects that may, with different degrees of probability, be achieved by the application of military, diplomatic, psychological, and economic instruments. The report suggests principles for sharpening discussions of EBO, for increasing the rigor of those discussions, and for building the key ideas of EBO into analysis for defense planning, experimentation, and operations planning. It then illustrates the principles with explicit models. Finally, it sketches a possible research program to enrich the base for studying and practicing EBO.
Read the report: http://www.rand.org/pubs/papersubs/monograph_reports/MR1477/
EXPLORING ADVANCED TECHNOLOGIES FOR THE FUTURE COMBAT SYSTEMS PROGRAM
Authors: John Matsumura, Randall Steeb, Thomas J. Herbert, John Gordon, Carl A. Rhodes, Russell W. Glenn, Mike Barbero, Fred Gellert, Phyllis Kantar, Gail Halverson, Rob Cochran, Paul Steinberg
This report assesses technologies, tactics, and operational concepts being considered for future Army rapid-reaction forces, with a focus on their application to small-scale contingencies.
Read the report: http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1332/
KEEPING THE WARFIGHTING EDGE:
AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF ARMY OFFICERS' TACTICAL EXPERTISE
Author: Maren Leed
In an era of new military missions, of repositioning and reduction of forces, and a heightened pace of deployments, the question arises whether today's Army combat leaders have had fewer opportunities to develop tactical skills. This report explores whether between 1990 and 1998 the tenure of key developmental assignments for infantry and armor officers became shorter; the tactical training during those assignments declined significantly; and earlier shifts in career patterns and training meant that such recent officers arrived in key positions with less experience than earlier generations of officers.
Read the report: http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1378/
LIMITED CONFLICTS UNDER THE NUCLEAR UMBRELLA:
INDIAN AND PAKISTANI LESSONS FROM THE KARGIL CRISIS
Authors: Ashley J. Tellis, C. Christine Fair, Jamison Jo Medby
This report examines the views of India and Pakistan on the significance of Pakistan's foray into the Kargil-Dras sector in a limited war that has come to be known as the "Kargil conflict." The analysis evaluates the possibilities of future Kargil-like events and the implications of the lessons each country learned for stability in South Asia.
Read the report: http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1450/
MEASURING INTERDICTION CAPABILITIES IN THE PRESENCE OF ANTI-ACCESS STRATEGIES:
EXPLORATORY ANALYSIS TO INFORM ADAPTIVE STRATEGY FOR THE PERSIAN GULF
Authors: Paul K. Davis, Jimmie McEver, Barry Wilson
This report discusses how U.S. capabilities for interdicting invading ground forces in the Persian Gulf can be adapted over time to maintain the ability to achieve an "early halt" or to counter maneuver forces in other plausible campaigns.
Read the report: http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1471/
OPERATIONS AGAINST ENEMY LEADERS
Author: Stephen T. Hosmer
Over the years, the United States has mounted both overt and covert operations to kill enemy leaders directly or to secure their overthrow either by indigenous coup or rebellion or by external invasion and takedown. This report analyzes some two dozen cases of attacks on leadership from World War II to the present and provides policy and operational lessons about the comparative efficacy and prerequisites for success of different forms of attack, their potential coercive and deterrent value, and the possible unintended consequences of their ill-considered use.
Read the research brief: http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB74/index1.html
Read the full report: http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1385/
SEEKING NONTRADITIONAL APPROACHES TO COLLABORATING AND PARTNERING WITH INDUSTRY
Authors: Bruce Held, Kenneth P. Horn, Christopher Hanks, Michael Hynes, Paul Steinberg, Chris Pernin, Jamison Jo Medby, Jeff Brown
The Army has a growing need to collaborate and partner with industry. This report describes three nontraditional approaches to that goal: (1) forming real-estate public-private partnerships (PPPs), (2)using Army venture capital mechanisms as a research and development funding and collaborating tool, and (3) spinning-off Army activities into federal government corporations (FGCs). The research shows that while the three concepts appear promising, each requires resolution of key issues before it can be seriously considered for implementation.
Read the report: http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1401/
SERVICE RESPONSES TO THE EMERGENCE OF JOINT DECISIONMAKING
Authors: Leslie Lewis, Roger Allen Brown, Charles Robert Roll
An assessment of the manner in which the services have altered their planning, programming, and budgeting processes in response to the changes brought about by the 1986 Goldwater-Nichols legislation.
Read the report: http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1438/
THE SOUTH KOREAN DEBATE OVER POLICIES TOWARD NORTH KOREA:
ISSUES AND IMPLICATIONS
Authors: Norman D. Levin and Yong-Sup Han
This report is the first of three on the public South Korean debate over dealings with North Korea. The focus of all three reports is on the period since March 1998, when Kim Dae Jung became the first leader of South Korea's political opposition ever to be elected president of the country, and on the major actors, interests, and goals influencing South Korean policies.
Read the report: http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1555.0/
SPACE WEAPONS, EARTH WARS
Authors: Bob Preston, Dana J. Johnson, Sean J.A. Edwards, Jennifer Gross, Michael Douglas Miller, Calvin Shipbaugh
This work describes space weapons, how they would work, and how they might be used, as well as how any nation might decide to acquire them and how other nations might react.
Read the full report: http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1209/
SPECIAL OPERATIONS FORCES AND ELUSIVE ENEMY GROUND TARGETS:
LESSONS FROM VIETNAM AND THE PERSIAN GULF WAR
Author: William Rosenau
In the Vietnam War and the Persian Gulf conflict, special operations forces (SOF) conducted reconnaissance operations to locate hidden targets when political and other considerations prevented the deployment of conventional ground units and air power alone was unable to locate and eliminate elusive objectives. There are a number of implications for future operations. This report finds that special operations forces can be effective where conventional ground units and air power alone cannot locate elusive or hidden ground targets, but that there are limitations.
Read the research brief: http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB77/index1.html
Read the full report: http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1408/
SUPPORTING EXPEDITIONARY AEROSPACE FORCES:
ALTERNATIVES FOR JET ENGINE INTERMEDIATE MAINTENANCE
Authors: Mahyar A. Amouzegar, Lionel A. Galway, Amanda Geller
This report assesses how Jet Engine Intermediate Maintenance shops can best be configured to support Expeditionary Aerospace Forces both in peacetime and in war.
Read the research brief: http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB82/index1.html
Read the full report: http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1431/
2. Issue Papers
ORGANIZING FOR HOMELAND SECURITY
Author: Lynn E. Davis
In response to the September 11 terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, President Bush put in place a new organizational structure for ensuring the security of the American homeland, creating the Office of Homeland Security. This issue paper discusses the critical issues involved in designing the homeland security organization and in achieving its goals.
Read the issue paper: http://www.rand.org//pubs/issue_papers/IP220/
PREPARING FOR FUTURE WARFARE WITH ADVANCED TECHNOLOGIES:
PRIORITIZING THE NEXT GENERATION OF CAPABILITIES
Authors: John Matsumura, Randall Steeb, Paul Steinberg
This issue paper provides an evaluation of how well selected military capabilities will perform in future conflicts. Primarily, it seeks to address the question, "What capabilities are essential for the future, and how should they be prioritized?" bringing to bear empirical analysis based on sophisticated modeling and simulation recently carried out by RAND researchers. In particular, using a scenario based on experiences in Operation Allied Force in Kosovo in 1999, researchers evaluate how three prioritizations of capabilities might play out in a similar small-scale contingency (SSC) in the 2015 timeframe.
Read the issue paper: http://www.rand.org//pubs/issue_papers/IP215/
3. Conference Proceedings
and Documented Briefings
ANALYSIS OF AIR-BASED MECHANIZATION AND VERTICAL ENVELOPMENT CONCEPTS AND TECHNOLOGIES
Authors: Jon Grossman, John Matsumura, Randall Steeb, John Gordon, Tom Herbert, William Sollfrey
This documented briefing explores and assesses the Army's ability to insert mechanized forces in enemy-controlled terrain.
Read the documented briefing: http://www.rand.org/pubs/documented_briefings/DB321/
PROTECTING EMERGENCY RESPONDERS:
LESSONS LEARNED FROM TERRORIST ATTACKS
Authors: Brian Jackson, D.J. Peterson, James Bartis, Tom LaTourrette, Irene Brahmakulam, Ari Houser, Jerry Sollinger
This conference proceeding presents a summary of a December 2001 working conference, sponsored by the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health. Attending were emergency workers who responded to the bombing of the Murrah Building in Oklahoma City, the September 11 attacks on the World Trade Center and the anthrax incidents that occurred during autumn 2001. The conference proceeding addresses the equipment, training and information required to protect emergency responders as they meet the challenge of protecting their communities.
Read the conference proceedings: http://www.rand.org/pubs/conf_proceedings/CF176/