Eight years after 9/11 Taliban now have permanent presence in 80% of Afghanistan

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Offline bigron

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Eight years after 9/11 Taliban now have a permanent presence in 80% of Afghanistan

ICOS - International Council on Security and Development

http://www.uruknet.info/index.php?p=m57824&hd=&size=1&l=e
 

10 September 2009




Eight years after 9/11 Taliban now has a permanent presence in 80% of Afghanistan

In wake of widespread election review onset of winter could delay second round of voting until spring

Contingency plans needed to address constitutional vacuum in presidency



LONDON – The Taliban now have a permanent presence in 80% of Afghanistan, up from 72% in November 2008, according to a new map released today by the International Council on Security and Development (ICOS). According to ICOS, another 17% of Afghanistan is seeing 'substantial’ Taliban activity. Taken together, these figures show that the Taliban has a significant presence in virtually all of Afghanistan.

"Despite the presence of tens of thousands of foreign troops in Afghanistan, the return, the spread and the advance of the Taliban is now without question" said Norine MacDonald QC, President and Lead Field Researcher for ICOS.



Rapid Expansion of Taliban Footprint: Situation in Northern Afghanistan Deteriorating Fast
Previous ICOS maps showed a steady increase in the Taliban’s presence throughout Afghanistan.


In November 2007, ICOS assessed that the Taliban had a permanent presence in 54% of Afghanistan, and in November 2008, using the same methodology; the result was a finding of a permanent Taliban presence in 72% of the country.

The new map indicates that the Taliban insurgency has continued to expand its influence across Afghanistan. "The dramatic change in the last few months has been the deterioration of the situation in the north of Afghanistan, which was previously one of the most stable parts of Afghanistan. Provinces such as Kunduz and Balkh are now heavily affected by Taliban violence. Across the north of Afghanistan, there has been a dramatic increase in the rate of insurgent attacks against international, Afghan government, and civilian targets", stated Mr. Alexander Jackson, Policy Analyst at ICOS.

"Eight years after the 9/11 attacks, the Taliban has returned to touch almost every corner of Afghanistan", said Jackson.



Run Off Vote could be Delayed until Spring

Afghanistan’s presidential elections were held on August 20. Since polling day, the Independent Election Commission, an Afghan body, has been counting votes, but is monitored by the Electoral Complaints Commission.

To take the Presidency on the first round a candidate must receive more than 50% of the votes cast. On September 8, preliminary results were released which gave incumbent President Hamid Karzai 54% of the votes. His main challenger, Dr Abdullah Abdullah, came second with 28.3%.

However, according to the Electoral Complaints Commission, the voting process was marred by indications of fraud. Hundreds of polling stations have had their results thrown out; accusations of intimidation, ballot-stuffing and fake polling centers are rife. As a result, the Electoral Complaints Commission ordered a partial recount and audit.

The Afghan Constitution states an election run-off must be held "within 2 weeks after the announcement of the election results". However, a modified schedule had been organised stipulating a second round in the first days of October. As a result of the Electoral Complaints Commission stipulating recounts and audits, this schedule cannot be maintained and final results may well not be known for several weeks.

If a run-off or revote is necessary, this would not be hampered in the next months by the harsh winter conditions in many areas of northern Afghanistan. This would delay the second round until spring – leaving Afghanistan in a constitutional vacuum for months. There are no provisions in the Afghan Constitution to allow President Karzai to continue in the Presidency in such circumstances.

"This raises the possibility of both a lack of legal authority in the Presidency and resulting political instability and government paralysis dragging on for many months," said MacDonald. "There are a lot of questions to be asked at the moment and no good answers being offered. Great uncertainties lie ahead."



Urgently Needed: Constitutional Contingency Plan to Stabilise the Situation

ICOS repeats its pre-election warning, from a report released on August 7 2009, that Afghan and international observers urgently need contingency plans to respond to the situation. "Now, more than ever, the international community needs to establish a contingency plan to deal with the constitutional vacuum in Kabul," said Jackson. "Afghanistan’s future is far from decided after this disputed August vote."



An Unappealing Option: Declaring a State of Emergency

Under the Constitution, President Karzai may impose a state of emergency with the consent of Parliament, but this option holds a high risk of exacerbating rather than calming the current political tensions. "The Taliban has expanded its grip on Afghanistan to the point where holding another round of voting will be even more difficult. The Afghan people who did take the risk to vote in August may not be willing to risk their lives for a second round of voting - especially when the first round was so riddled with fraud", said Jackson.

The next few weeks could see Afghanistan pulling back from the brink of chaos – or falling into the abyss.



Taliban Presence Map: January-September 2009


 
For image / high-resolution version:
http://www.icosfilm.net/static/video/050_map.pdf


Methodology of ICOS Data Showing Taliban Presence

Data detailing the presence of the Taliban in Afghanistan was gathered from daily insurgent activity reports between January and September 2009. ICOS believes that the level of incidents recorded by this methodology is conservative, as it is based on public third-party reports, and not all incidents are made public.

Permanent presence: defined by provinces that average one (or more) insurgent attack (lethal and non-lethal) per week.

Substantial presence: an average one or more insurgent attacks per month and include residents who believe Taliban are active locally (based on frequency of Taliban sightings).

Light presence: defined by less than one insurgent attack per month and local residents don’t believe Taliban is active locally (based on frequency of Taliban sightings). To calculate percentages, the total area of Afghanistan was divided by the total area hosting a permanent/substantial/light Taliban presence.


All the Taliban Presence maps :
http://www.icosmaps.net/

ICOS Election Update
http://www.icosgroup.net/modules/reports/Guns_and_Money_Afghanistans_Election

The Constitution of Afghanistan
http://www.supremecourt.gov.af/PDFiles/constitution2004_english.pdf



Contact:
Mr Tyler Trippet
Office: +33 1 49 96 67 24
Mobile: +33 6 60 26 19 82
 

 


 

:: Article nr. 57824 sent on 11-sep-2009 01:13 ECT


www.uruknet.info?p=57824

Link: www.icosgroup.net/modules/press_releases/eight_years_after_911


Offline Dissident

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The whole war is a farce. We should pull our troops from all foreign soil and bring them home. Our founding fathers advised us to avoid foreign entanglments and use our military strictly for self defense. The "bring it to them" argument is weak. This contuation of our "nation building" foreign policy is going to bankrupt our economy. Traditional war is not going to stop any of these wackjobs.The brute force of conventional warfare only creates more recruits as it illustrates and strengthens their argument that we are imperialists.

Piltdown Man

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Can anybody say Vietnam?
Don't we ever learn?  
The parallels are staggering.  Be it a perceived (msm brainwash via Project Mockingbird) ideological communist threat or a religion based implanted idea of a terror threat to secure poppies and pipelines, the identical brand of innocent civilian murdering imperialism continues roughly 50 years later...50 years being the amount of time it takes to "forget"?

There is not even a Gulf of Tonkin episode or a 911 false flag to whip up the populace.  That shows how far we've sunk.  We don't even need a reason.  just wave a yellow flag in front of the american people's faces: say DANGER! and boof! billions of tax payer dollars are routed to the war machine, dollars no one can afford.

We are facing Ukraine style starvation in the upcoming years.  There is no industry left.  The world is getting colder in many ways.  This war promises plenty of heroin, however, and from what I know from my homeless friends, at least when you freeze to death on heroin, you don't feel a thing.  My friend Chrysler Kelly used to spend her winter nights rolling the addicts back up in their blankets because they couldn't feel the cold, saving countless lives.

here's a little walk down memory lane:

  In 1965 the size of the United States force in South Vietnam exceeded 50,000 troops, doubling in about six months. Between July and November an additional 100,000 men were transferred from military bases in the United States to Vietnam, about 200,000 Americans were in South Vietnam at the end of 1971.

Rather than a classic military strategy of gaining territory, the army tried to clear areas with search and destroy missions. The U.S. hoped to make the communists want to give up by causing creating heavy casualties and lack of supplies. This strategy did not take into the account that Hanoi was prepared to suffer enormous losses.

There were over 58,000 Americans killed in Vietnam and 3 times the amount of bombs dropped in World War II.


Piltdown Man

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also, the impenetrable, challenging terrain of Vietnam contributed to the US losing that war.  thick jungles, steamy marshes, leeches, mosquitos, invisible enemies hiding behind thick vegetation...how do you train for that?

when the military talks about Afghanistan's terrain, the word "rugged" is almost always included.  rugged is an understatement. 
how do you conquer this (see pic below)?  Might as well send troops to conquer Jupiter.

make no mistake: this war is, again, about obscene amounts of money being shoveled into the bank accounts of arms dealers and opium traders.  It is about attempting, with insane hubris, to control the central crucible path of the regions major oil and gas pipelines. 

Without war, the NWO and it's banker minions go broke.  They live off it like air, water and whatever brand of caviar they are having this week.