H1N1: WHO says 2 Billion to be infected > 0.6% mortality > 12,000,000 to die

[EchelonMonitor]

WHO maintains 2 bln estimate for likely H1N1 cases
Tue Aug 4, 2009 12:32pm EDT

* Rough estimate of likely H1N1 cases by end is 2 billion

* No precise estimate of current infections

* High proportion of southern hemisphere flu cases are H1N1

* WHO to update on vaccine efforts this week

* WHO names African expert as H1N1 chief



By Jonathan Lynn

GENEVA, Aug 4 (Reuters) - The World Health Organisation stuck on Tuesday to its statement that about two billion people could catch H1N1 influenza by the time the flu pandemic ends.

But the estimate comes with a big health warning: no one knows how many people so far have caught the new strain, known as swine flu, and the final number will never be known as many cases are so mild they may go unnoticed.

"By the end of a pandemic, anywhere between 15-45 percent of a population will have been infected by the new pandemic virus," WHO spokeswoman Aphaluck Bhatiasevi said in a statement.

"Thirty percent is a midpoint estimate and 30 percent of the world's population is 2 billion."

But she added: "We must remember however, that attempts to estimate infection rates can only be very rough."

Early in the outbreak, which was first detected in April, Dr Keiji Fukuda, acting Assistant Director-General of the U.N. agency, fuelled accusations the WHO was creating panic about the disease when he used the two billion figure.

But the WHO, which raised its global flu alert to the highest level on June 11, declaring a worldwide pandemic, has since said the strain is already spreading much faster than previous flu pandemics.

At the same time, because most victims suffer only mild symptoms, it has told countries they no longer need to try to report each case, but concentrate on monitoring suspicious concentrations of the disease and tracking deaths.



AUTUMN RISK

Bhatiasevi earlier told a briefing the WHO was coordinating a network of independent institutions trying to project the total number of cases. Because no one currently has such an estimate, it is not possible to state the H1N1 mortality rate.

The WHO's latest update on July 27 said a total of 816 people had died from H1N1, while the total number of laboratory-confirmed cases, including deaths, was 134,503 -- a figure well below the likely real total of infections which may already be in the millions, according to health experts.

As the northern hemisphere autumn approaches, and with it the onset of seasonal flu, the WHO is working with drug companies to ensure vaccines to cope both with H1N1 and seasonal flu will be available.

WHO spokeswoman Fadela Chaib said the agency hoped to give an update on its vaccine plans later this week. Leading flu vaccine makers include Sanofi-Aventis (SASY.PA), Novartis (NOVN.VX), Baxter (BAX.N), GlaxoSmithKline (GSK.L) and Solvay (SOLB.BR).

H1N1 rapidly became the most commonly isolated virus in flu cases in South America and Australia after seasonal flu started there, Bhatiasevi said. But that may be a distorted picture, because specimens for testing were often associated with events such as school closures or screening of travellers where H1N1 was suspected anyway.

In South Africa, where H1N1 arrived later, many cases of the seasonal flu virus H3N2 were reported, but as the flu season wanes and H3N2 cases decrease, H1N1 has begun to make up a much higher proportion of flu cases there.

The WHO has appointed Dr Mohamed Hacen as project manager for H1N1 in Dr Fukuda's influenza team, Bhatiasevi said.

A Mauritanian, Dr Hacen has served as WHO representative in several African countries and has extensive experience in the field and in communicable diseases.

(Editing by Sophie Hares)

http://www.reuters.com/article/asiaCrisis/idUSL4634663

-----------------------------

Using their official infection total of 134,503 and 816 official deaths you get 0.6%, and 0.6% of 2 Billion is 1.2 Million deaths.

Of course, this doesn't take into account the likely higher rate of infection and higher mortality rate of the new and improved version of H1N1 they're putting in the vaccine.

[Dig]

WHO MANUFACTURED GENOCIDE!

[EchelonMonitor]

WOW, great poster--those should go up in towns around the world.

[Dig]

U.S. Air Force Study Proposed 2009 Influenza Pandemic in 1996
http://www.infowars.com/us-air-force-study-proposed-2009-influenza-pandemic-in-1996/
Kurt Nimmo Infowars March 5, 2009

On June 17, 1996, the U.S. Air Force released Air Force 2025, “a study designed to comply with a directive from the chief of staff of the Air Force to examine the concepts, capabilities, and technologies the United States will require to remain the dominant air and space force in the future.” In the unclassified study, the College of Aerospace Doctrine, Research, and Education at Maxwell Air Force Base in Alabama posed several “fictional representations of future situations/scenarios” likely to arise.    
   
   
   In 2009, according to a figure in the Air Force 2025 report, influenza kills 30 million people.
   


In Chapter 5, the authors present a timeline figure representing “plausible history.” In 2009, according to the figure, influenza will kill 30 million people. “A similar influenza pandemic occurred in the past,” a footnote explains, making a reference to the influenza epidemic of 1918 and 1919, described as “one of the worst human catastrophes on record. It has been estimated that more than 20 million people around the world died during the epidemic, and of the 20 million people who suffered from the illness in the United States, approximately 850,000 died.”

“The influenza virus is unique among viruses in being able to undergo so much antigenic change that an antigenically novel virus can sweep around the world in a year or two, giving rise to significant morbidity and mortality,” another footnote states.

It is interesting to note that the source of the Air Force’s fictional pandemic is described as unknown and it is not “determined if the virus was a natural mutation or bioengineered. Many feared the latter.” (Emphasis added.)

Is it merely a coincidence the Pentagon would propose in 1996 a deadly flu pandemic for 2009 when live H5N1 avian flu viruses are discovered in vaccines produced by a Baxter International plant in Austria?

“The fact that Baxter mixed the deadly H5N1 virus with a mix of H3N2 seasonal flu viruses is the smoking gun,” writes Paul Joseph Watson. “The H5N1 virus on its own has killed hundreds of people, but it is less airborne and more restricted in the ease with which it can spread. However, when combined with seasonal flu viruses, which as everyone knows are super-airborne and easily spread, the effect is a potent, super-airborne, super deadly biological weapon” of the sort proposed in Air Force 2025.

Last year, author and researcher F. William Engdahl revealed a Pentagon effort to weaponize avian flu. “If the reports are accurate, this could unleash a new pandemic on the planet that could be more devastating than the 1918 Spanish Flu epidemic which killed an estimated 30 million people worldwide before it eventually died out,” writes Engdahl.

Engdahl then suggests “that sections of the international pharmaceutical industry cartel are acting in concert with the US Government to develop a genetically modified H5N1 virus substance that could unleash a man-made pandemic.” He cites Rima E. Laibow, MD, head of the Natural Solutions Foundation, a citizen watchdog group monitoring the pharmaceutical industry, who states:

Our best intelligence estimate is that pandemic Avian Flu has already been created through genetic engineering in the United States, fusing the deadly genome of the 1918 Pandemic, misnamed the ‘Spanish Flu’, with the DNA of the innocuous H5N1 virus in a growth medium of human kidney cells, according to the National Institutes of Health and the vaccine’s manufacturer. Some virologists believe that this would insure that the man-made mutant virus recognizes human cells and knows how to invade them.

Finally, it should be noted that Walter E. Boomer, a retired former four-star General and Assistant Commandant of the United States Marine Corps, sits on the board of directors of Baxter International. Of course, this is not definitive evidence the military controls Baxter or is behind the “accidental” contamination of H3N2 seasonal flu viruses with the H5N1 virus at its laboratory in Austria. It is highly suspicious, however.

Baxter International has had a relationship with the military since 1941, when its blood-collection devices were the only ones that met the specifications of the U.S. Armed Forces.

[EchelonMonitor]

Sorry for the math error in my original post--I missed a 0.

Here are the exact figures:

816 divided by 134,503 = 0.006066779179646550634558336988766

0.006066779179646550634558336988766 times 2,000,000,000 = 12,133,558

[EchelonMonitor]

That is weird:



That should be all over the corporate media. 

[LoreOnTerror]

If you think that 12 million is an eye opener take a gander at this one.

The 1976 swine flu killed 1. The vaccines killed 25. 12,000,000X25= 300,000,000. That's more than the entire population of the Untied States. 

[lavosslayer]

This image says it all about their mandatory swine flu vaccine:

[Dig]

This image says it all about their mandatory swine flu vaccine:

looks like some left wing agitator website!

[deconstructmyhouse]

If you think that 12 million is an eye opener take a gander at this one.

The 1976 swine flu killed 1. The vaccines killed 25. 12,000,000X25= 300,000,000. That's more than the entire population of the Untied States. 

though i am in sympathy with the intent of your post, that is some really crazy weird math you're doin there...

[Mike Philbin]

meh, this is just like the 700BIL bailout figure - "we don't know why we chose it, we just wanted a really big number" paraphrased UNQUOTE.

and what I mean by that is, if you don't know what a-H1N1 is or where any mutation will take lethality, how the hell can you even ATTEMPT to calculate a figure like that ... fact, no vaccines will work once the mutation has taken place... fact, a-H1N1 is a very fast mutator.  We reeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeally like our un-winnable wars this decade, don't we. MOney, money money....

goons.

[lavosslayer]

looks like some left wing agitator website!

not sure about the site...wasn't meaning to promote it as I don't know anything about it...just liked the picture of the monkey getting ready to jab the doctor with the syringe...thought it fit my sentiment well...

[TheHouseMan]

Well, I'm sure after they hand out all the vaccines, we'll see a spike in deaths. You see, then they can use that to get even more people to take more vaccines.

[Satyagraha]

not sure about the site...wasn't meaning to promote it as I don't know anything about it...just liked the picture of the monkey getting ready to jab the doctor with the syringe...thought it fit my sentiment well...

I think sane forgot his sarcasm emoticon.

[Mike Philbin]

Well, I'm sure after they hand out all the vaccines, we'll see a spike in deaths. You see, then they can use that to get even more people to take more vaccines.

Not only that, they're TIMING the mass vaccinations to coincide with the deaths due to normal, seasonal flu. Yeah, they'll broadcast the deaths like THEY NEVER DO in any normal flu winter.

Gah.

[sociostudent]

 "The first century or two of the new millennium will almost certainly be a golden age for Eugenics. Through application of new genetic knowledge and reproductive technologies…the major change will be to mankind itself…[T]echniques…such as…genetic manipulations are not yet efficient enough to be unquestionably suitable in therapeutic and eugenic application for humans. But with the pace of research it is surely only a matter of time, and a short time at that."
- Glayde Whitney, Reproduction Technology for a New Eugenics, paper for The Galton Institute conference Man and Society in the New Millennium, September 1999

"There is NO DENYING the natural world would be a better place without people – ALL people! Not a selective bunch. Get it straight."
-
Rebecca Calisi, student of Eric Pianka

"In order to stabilize world population, we must eliminate 350,000 people per day. It is a horrible thing to say, but it is just as bad not to say it."
- Jacques Cousteau,  1991 UNESCO courier
“I do not pretend that birth control is the only way in which population can be kept from increasing… War… has hitherto been disappointing in this respect, but perhaps bacteriological war may prove more effective. If a Black Death could be spread throughout the world once in every generation survivors could procreate freely without making the world too full… The state of affairs might be somewhat unpleasant, but what of that? Really high-minded people are indifferent to happiness, especially other people’s… There are three ways of securing a society that shall be stable as regards population.The first is that of birth control, the second that of infanticide or really destructive wars, and the third that of general misery except for a powerful minority…”
- Bertrand Russell, THE IMPACT OF SCIENCE ON SOCIETY 1953

[Dig]

I think sane forgot his sarcasm emoticon.

d'oh!!!!!

[NOTE: Yeah actually I was trying to expose the soon to be onslaught of BS "you wingnuts are violent" morons by showing that it could just as easily be a lefty site that fights for liberty over pharmaceutical fascism.]

[EchelonMonitor]

I was waiting to see if anyone else noticed, but I guess not, that when you divide WHO's figures for the number of confirmed deaths by the number of confirmed cases, as I did above, the first three numbers (if you don't consider 0's to be numbers) are 666.

[Dig]

I was waiting to see if anyone else noticed, but I guess not, that when you divide WHO's figures for the number of confirmed deaths by the number of confirmed cases, as I did above, the first three numbers (if you don't consider 0's to be numbers) are 666.

ok, no more numerology for a week! now sit in the corner and repeat after me..."I am not minister Farakkan"x100

[rosso]

And now the U.S. Center for Disease Control is advising that in the event of an outbreak at schools, the best option to "prevent" the spread of this strain is to NOT close the schools. HUH?! Could you contradict yourself anymore?




Reuters
By Maggie Fox, Health and Science Editor Maggie Fox, Health And Science Editor – Fri Aug 7, 12:19 pm ET

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – New U.S. guidelines for the pandemic of H1N1 swine flu released on Friday discourage the early closure of schools, unless the virus becomes worse.

But patients who get sick, including children, can return to school or work 24 hours after their fever breaks, instead of the full seven days previously recommended.

"We know from the spring that where there was H1N1 there were very large explosive outbreaks in schools," Dr. Thomas Frieden, director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, told a news conference. But he said experts had also learned more about the way H1N1 spreads.

"We know now that closing schools is not the best option in most cases," said Frieden, who was New York City Health Commissioner until June. He said as many as 800,000 people were infected in New York alone at the peak of the outbreak there.

"We can't stop the tide of flu from coming in, but we can help reduce the number of people who become ill with it."

If the virus starts to spread faster when school starts, officials should try other means to slow it, such as keeping students more widely separated and stressing hand hygiene, the guidelines recommend.

The benefits of closing schools are outweighed by social costs such as unsupervised children, health workers stuck at home to care for children, missed meals and missed education, according to the guidelines, available at http://www.flu.gov.

Schools for pregnant mothers and disabled children are an exception, as such people are at high risk from flu.

About 55 million students attend 130,000 U.S. public and private schools, and 7 million staff work there, according to the Department of Education.

Sick students should be sent home promptly, the guidelines stress, parents need to take responsibility for not sending feverish children to school and schools need to designate a room where sick students can stay safely until picked up.

NO IMMUNITY

H1N1 swine flu is unstoppable, according to the World Health Organization, which has given up on trying to get a precise count of cases.

Experts consider the pandemic to be moderate at this point, meaning it can kill people and can put many into the hospital, sometimes for weeks at a time with severe illness. But most people get a mild illness and get better with little or no treatment.

However, most people have no immunity to this virus, which means that more are likely to become infected than with a seasonal strain of influenza. And the strain could change at any moment into a more serious form.

Vaccine makers have started their first batches of vaccine but U.S. officials do not expect any public vaccination until mid-October and they do not expect those most at risk from H1N1 -- pregnant women, people with chronic health conditions, children and young adults -- to be fully vaccinated until the first week of December.

Education Secretary Arne Duncan said school officials and teachers unions met with government officials earlier this week and endorsed school-based vaccination programs.

Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius said separate guidelines would be issued soon for preschools, day-care centers and colleges and universities.

"It is really the dorm environment that presents some challenges," Sebelius said.

[EchelonMonitor]

Other governments have also agreed to accept the liability for any deaths and injuries from the vaccines, leaving the vaccine makers totally free to kill at will without consequence.

[Letsbereal]

Dutch advice on Mexican flu: ‘Just sit it out’ http://tinyurl.com/m57sp6

P.S. There even have been “Mexican Flu Parties” in Europe by people who want to get the flu and get it over with.

[EchelonMonitor]

Dutch advice on Mexican flu: ‘Just sit it out’ http://tinyurl.com/m57sp6

P.S. There even have been “Mexican Flu Parties” in Europe by people who want to get the flu and get it over with.

That probably won't help if the vaccine spreads a new "improved" (more deadly) version.

[nofakenews]

That probably won't help if the vaccine spreads a new "improved" (more deadly) version.

Heck you may not even need a shot thanks to gates funding of flying syringe mosquitoes and the US based Sanaria Inc....