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BALKANLANDS / Re: Fun in Serbia
« Last post by Al Bundy on Today at 01:48:43 AM »
Hi Al, could you start a thread on restaurants
and places to dine at in Serbia?  And what's
on the menus? 


ОК lady.
Shocking: South Korean Death Camps Uncovered

A mass grave of South Korean children was uncovered who were killed at a labor camp facility, euthanized, beaten to death, or worked to death. The bodies were disposed of in shallow graves in the nearby woods in order to hide these crimes against the humanity. Additionally, the bodies of people with physical handicaps, homeless, left-wing and labor activists, and runaway or kidnapped women were also discovered in these mass graves. 

In 1975, US backed dictator President Park Chung-hee, father of current President Park Geun-hye, issued a directive to police and local officials to 'purify' city streets of vagrants
Tahoe Blue, is this on both sides of the lake?
North and South shore?  (California side and also Nevada side)

Amazing how the delphi technique works on people.  It's
sad, disgusting, infuriating they're ruining Lake Tahoe!
I have many, many, many good memories , why I can get
homesick for Lake Tahoe.   
I have a lot of cattle ranchers near me.  They run their cattle
part time as crops are rotated in the fields, from early spring
to when the snow starts to fly , large herds of cattle and never
have any of our wild lightening storms and we also get dry lightening
ever killed a single bull, cow, heifer or a  calf.   Mostly black angus cattle
around here, they're  a hearty breed for the climate here, especially
over wintering it in cold temps outside .   (per the cattle ranchers)
BALKANLANDS / Re: Fun in Serbia
« Last post by windyacres on Today at 12:59:39 AM »
Hi Al, could you start a thread on restaurants
and places to dine at in Serbia?  And what's
on the menus? 

The 11 Bone-Chilling Things I Gleaned from Yellen’s Chart   

by Wolf Richter • August 27, 2016

Who says the Fed can’t have fun at our expense?

At the Symposium in Jackson Hole, so feverishly anticipated by the entire world, Fed Chair Janet Yellen gave an even more feverishly anticipated speech on Friday, in which she said the same stuff she’d been saying all along, such as these nuggets:
“And, as ever, the economic outlook is uncertain, and so monetary policy is not on a preset course.”

“Our ability to predict how the federal funds rate will evolve over time is quite limited because monetary policy will need to respond to whatever disturbances may buffet the economy.”
To document this, she supplied the fan chart below, adding this explanation:
“The line in the center is the median path for the federal funds rate based on the FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections in June.”

“The shaded region, which is based on the historical accuracy of private and government forecasters, shows a 70% probability that the federal funds rate will be between 0 and 3.25% at the end of next year and between 0 and 4.5% at the end of 2018.”

 the Fed, nothing ever appears out of nowhere, except money. So Bloomberg supplied some background on how the chart came about:
The Fed has been struggling to find a way to point out that its dot plot – or its quarterly forecast of its policy rate for the next few years – is just a guess and it’s subject to change due to economic shocks or surprising twists in the data.
A subcommittee on communications submitted similar fan charts to the Federal Open Market Committee in January for their consideration. As usual, committee participants expressed “a range of views,” with some saying the charts might be helpful “in explaining that future monetary policy is necessarily uncertain.”
Fed officials sent the subcommittee back to their cubicles to study the issue some more. They had some criticisms of the charts – one big one was that past forecast errors may not equal future ones.
Here are the 11 bone-chilling things I gleaned from the chart:

1. They have no clue about what might happen next. Their forecasts and “forward guidance” are either figments of their imagination or just efforts to manipulate the markets.

2. They have no clue how to get out of what initially was an emergency treatment of a Fed-sponsored financial system in full and self-inflicted collapse, but is now the “new normal” treatment for an economy buckling under its Fed-encouraged debt.

3. Even the confidence level in their cluelessness is only 70%. What about the other 30%? We’re better off not knowing.

4. NIRP be screwed. Negative interest rates are off the table. In footnote 2 and on the chart itself, Yellen points out the “effective lower bound of 12.5 basis points.” So the bottom in rates, at a 70% confidence level, is 0.125%.

5. NIRP is beyond even the new-normal central bank deviousness. Negative interest rates are so destructive even to Fed-coddled entities, such as the banks, that the Fed doesn’t want to try them.

6. Negative real interest rate policy is in. It has been around for a long time. This is when the federal funds rate and other interest rates, such as bank deposit rates and government bond yields, are negative after inflation. It’s the classic form of financial repression. It surreptitiously rips off savers and other low-risk investors as they can’t see the rip-off on their bank or brokerage statements. Now the favorite tool in the Fed’s insidious tool box.

7. Flip-flopping is now the official Fed policy at a 70% confidence level and will become part of “forward guidance.”

8. They have no clue, but they know how to talk. The chart confirms the Fed’s message: They say whatever they want to in order to inflate financial markets and drive even conservative investors into huge risks without much compensation, and that’s pretty much all they’ll ever do.

9. They don’t give one iota about the real economy. The verbiage about unemployment etc. is just pretext. It’s all about inflating financial markets, bailing out certain bondholders when they get in trouble, enriching those that hold the most assets – the “Wealth Effect,” as Bernanke called it – and serve Wall Street in every way to the maximum extent possible. And to heck with the real economy.

10. Labor is screwed. It doesn’t figure into the chart, except that there needs to be an unlimited supply of cheap labor. Because cheap labor makes bad consumers, the Fed said with this chart that they’ll encourage “cheap labor” to spend money they don’t have and fill the holes in their budgets by borrowing. This way, they’ll be good consumers and prop up the economy, while also enhancing their noble status as debt slaves.

11. They’re trying to make us forget how long this insanity has been going on. Yellen’s chart begins in Q1 2015. But the Fed’s historic craziness began in 2008. So that we can remember for just how long the Fed has inflicted its policies on the economy, I have added to Yellen’s chart the prior six years, for a total of eight years. It shows that they have no clue about how to get back to normal, and that they have instead changed the definition of normal

Markets no longer believe that the Fed will ever raise interest rates in any significant way, at least not anytime soon, and with this very public belief, they’re trying to force the Fed not to raise rates. But if the Fed stops flip-flopping for a minute and actually raises rates, markets might throw a big hissy-fit, or so frets the Bank of Japan.

Please..please...get rid of this forced illegal health care
that was forced on people!
Financial Crisis Forum / Re: The Daily Job Cuts
« Last post by windyacres on Today at 12:41:34 AM »
Minimum Wage Claims Its Latest Victims -
Ashley Furniture Slashes 840 Jobs In California 

by Tyler Durden
Aug 28, 2016

A few weeks back we pointed out a couple of the reasons that businesses are fleeing California by the 1,000's ("3 Simple Charts That Help Explain Why 9,000 Businesses Have Left California In Just 7 Years"). Clearly the implementation of a State-wide $15 minimum wage hasn't helped "lure" business owners.
On Friday, Ashley Furniture's 840 employees working in the company's production and warehouse facility in Colton, California became the latest victims of California's minimum wage hike. Ashley announced they would be leaving open their retail store in Colton, but would be relocating the production facility that accounts for most of the location's jobs. Per the San Bernadino Sun, Ashley Furniture released the following statements about the closure:

We thank our employees for all their hard work, but closing these plants on Oct. 25 and rebalancing our manufacturing mix strengthens production capability and cost structure and will help ensure Ashley’s continued ability to compete effectively long-term in the global marketplace from a U.S. base.

The majority of production in Colton will move to U.S. plants in Wisconsin, Mississippi and North Carolina.
By shifting the majority of Colton production to other U.S. facilities we will create more efficiency and better use of existing capacity in our manufacturing network.

Certainly, it's not surpurprising that Ashley would choose to relocate their California prodcution capacity to Wisconsin, North Carolina and Mississippi given that they each sport minimum wages that are a mere 52% lower than California's proposed $15 floor.

But, as per the norm, misinformed politicians rarely seem to take the heat for their reckless policies as Ashley employees prepared to protest the layoffs in Colton.
“We cannot let companies like Ashley bleed the American dream,” Naja said. “It’s not only the employees, but the families, the kids, the wives. They’ve got wives with medical situations and things like that. There’s no way a huge company like Ashley’s can shut down the doors.”

“We’re going to be here making a protest and we’re calling everybody that can come to please support us and find out what they did to us,” Zuniga said. “Come and support all the hard-working employees and parents that take income to their house. I’m the only one supporting my family. I’m the only one paying a mortgage.”
Might we kindly suggest the better place to hold your protest would be in front of Jerry Brown's office in Sacramento.

Elections / McCain win Arizona AGAIN?
« Last post by Jacob Law on Today at 12:41:22 AM »

McCain look to easily win his primary over K Ward who is a true conservative.
They call Him the KING RINO what the heck is wrong with people in Arizona.
I though JD Hayward would have won in the primary against McCain in the prior election.
BUT Harry Reed and McCain seem to have it fixed ,,,,,, MMMMMHH
It seem that two others in the race took nearly 10% away from K Ward. 
  Fed's Yellen, Fischer Send Mixed Messages, Leave Markets Guessing

        Fed chief Janet Yellen said Friday that the economy is nearing the central bank's goals for prices and employment.

            JED GRAHAM

        Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said Friday that the case for a rate hike has "strengthened" in recent months, as labor market slack is fading.

        The U.S. economy is "now nearing the Federal Reserve's statutory goals of maximum employment and price stability," Yellen said.

        Financial markets, which already have been pricing in a good chance of a rate hike in December, initially took her comments in stride. Investors are less concerned about the timing of the next hike than the one after that. Treasury yields initially rose a bit, then headed slightly lower after release of Yellen's speech transcript.

        That was before Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer told CNBC that he saw Yellen's comments as consistent with a rate hike at the September meeting. Further, he said, a second increase could come as early as December, adding that the Fed won't know what's appropriate "until we see the data."

        Those comments caused a bit more turbulence, with the 10-year Treasury yield bouncing from an intraday low of 1.53% to 1.59%. Major stock indexes gave up modest gains stock market today and turned red, though afternoon losses were slim.

        After Fischer's comments market pricing still points to the next hike being in December, CME Group's FedWatch tool shows, though the odds of a hike in September edged up from 21% to 30%.

        But if Fischer's comments about two hikes this year begin to look realistic, bond market pricing will have to shift pretty markedly. Right now, markets are pricing in just a 31% chance of a second hike coming by the meeting on July 26, 2017.

        Yellen's speech and Fischer's comments both underscore just how unsure Fed policymakers are about the future. In addition to talking about economic data showing the Fed's goals of full employment and 2% inflation may be around the corner, Yellen highlighted arguments pointing to very low interest rates for a long time to come.

        "By some calculations, the real neutral rate is currently close to zero, and it could remain at this low level if we were to continue to see slow productivity growth and high global saving," Yellen said.
        The neutral interest rate is the rate at which monetary policy is neither accommodative nor restrictive.

        The path of rate hikes next year is the big issue for investors. Even as markets have shifted in recent weeks toward expecting a rate hike as early as December, the 10-year Treasury yield has drifted slightly lower. The reason markets have been so calm about the next rate increase is that investors don't expect an ensuing hike until at least the fall of 2017.

        Yellen, as expected, didn't offer any precise timing for the next Fed interest rate hike. Markets had already moved up the expected timing after a run of mostly better-than-expected data, including the strong July jobs report, a jump in new-home sales and a surge in durable goods orders. New data on Friday were on the soft side, though, with second-quarter GDP growth revised down to 1.1%, and the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index slipping unexpectedly.

        Banks, which stand to benefit from higher rates, perked up with Yellen's comments about a stronger case for a rate hike, but later gave up much of their gains. JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C) and Wells Fargo (WFC) each saw minor gains, but Bank of America (BAC) was up 1.4%.

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