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Financial Crisis Forum => Financial Crisis Forum => Economical Crises - Solutions - Philosophical debates and Loads of (Self) Educational Info => : Letsbereal March 16, 2012, 04:08:06 AM

: Brent crude $56.80 and U.S. crude $53.80 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal March 16, 2012, 04:08:06 AM
Brent crude rebounds above $123 on Iran-West tensions
16 March 2012
, by Randy Fabi - Singapore (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/16/markets-oil-idUSL4E8EG27820120316

* Reuters reports UK, US plan SPR release this year

* Iran taking steps to withstand pressure over nuke work

Brent crude rebounded above $123 on Friday after a sharp sell off the previous session, as rising tensions between Iran and the West fuelled an oil rally that has forced Western leaders to prepare a release of their strategic oil reserves
.


Brent crude rose 55 cents to $123.15 a barrel by 0302 GMT, after settling down nearly $2 the previous session following a Reuters report that Britian and the United States were preparing to tap into its oil reserves.

U.S. crude climbed 49 cents to $105.60 a barrel.

"We think that prices probably will continue to grind higher as we get closer to the sanctions deadline," said Jeremy Friesen, commodity strategist at Societe Generale in Hong Kong.

The sanctions vice was tightening on Iran, cutting it out of key global financial networks, but Tehran was taking urgent steps to withstand the pressure over a nuclear programme the West suspects was intended to produce bombs.

New Western sanctions, due to come into effect within a few months, were aimed at further isolating Iran by banning its oil shipments to Europe and prohibiting financial institutions from making oil transactions with the OPEC producer's central bank.

The sanctions have helped boost Brent crude oil prices by nearly 14% so far this year, stoking fears that higher fuel prices could derail economic growth in the United States.

Reuters reported on Thursday that Britain had agreed to cooperate with the United States in releasing reserves in an effort to halt rising oil prices, but volumes and exact timelines have not yet been determined, sources said.

"Now that the seed of a strategic crude oil release has been planted in traders' minds, this may act to impose an imaginary cap on the price of crude with traders wary of taking long positions at elevated prices should the coordinated release come to fruition down the track," said Tim Waterer, senior forex dealer at CMC Markets.

Washington could be tempted to tap the 727-million-barrel U.S. SPR as retail gasoline prices have surged to their highest level ever for mid-March, near $3.80 a gallon, drawing consumer ire during a presidential election year.
: Brent crude rebounds above $123 - U.S. crude above $107 a barrel
: Letsbereal March 16, 2012, 07:24:29 PM
Crude above $107 a barrel, reducing weekly loss
16 March 2012
, by Carla Mozee - Los Angeles (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crude-above-107-a-barrel-reducing-weekly-loss-2012-03-16

Crude-oil prices climbed Friday, with the dollar-denominated commodity finding support from a downturn in the greenback, allowing futures to cut into their weekly loss.

April futures for light, sweet crude rose $1.95, or 1.9%, to settle at $107.06 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

It was the first close above $107 a barrel for a front-month contract since March 9.

Crude futures fell 0.3% for the week, but had been facing a decline of more than 1% earlier in the session.
: Brent crude closed at almost $126 a barrel - U.S. crude tops $107
: Letsbereal March 18, 2012, 05:49:31 AM
UPDATE 8-Oil climbs on Iran tensions, weak dollar
16 March 2012
, (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/16/markets-oil-idUSL5E8EG1NW20120316
 
Excerpt:

* Dollar weakens on tame inflation data, supports oil

* Worries on Iran, supply disruption, lift oil *Israel Security Cabinet Votes 8 To 6 To Attack Iran

* Saudi sending more crude to United States


Brent May crude rose $3.21 to settle at $125.81 a barrel, surging above its 20-day and 10-day moving averages and reaching $126.10 ahead of the close.

For the week, Brent fell a mere 17 cents.

U.S. April crude rose $1.95 to settle at $107.06 a barrel, reaching $107.25 and also pushing above its 10-day and 20-day moving averages.

For the week, U.S. crude dipped 34 cents.   

*Israel Security Cabinet Votes 8 To 6 To Attack Iran http://www.zerohedge.com/news/brent-126-israel-cabinet-votes-8-6-attack-iran
: Things That Make You Go Hmmm – Such As $4.00 Gas (Again)
: Letsbereal March 18, 2012, 11:56:49 PM
Things That Make You Go Hmmm – Such As $4.00 Gas (Again)
18 March 2012
, by Grant Williams from 'Things That Make You Go Hmmm' (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/things-make-you-go-hmmm-such-400-gas-again

Excerpt from the Full PDF Article http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2012/02/Hmmm%20Mar%2018%202012a.pdf

Whether you are a Peak Oil advocate or not, the issue with oil is clearly one of supply and capacity right now. In an excellent recent article entitled ‘Understanding The New Price Of Oil’ Gregor McDonald outlined just why supply is now primary:

Supply, and the recognition of supply, are now the dominant factor in the oil price. A point so obvious, it hardly seems worth making. However, the developed world is still largely operating on the classical economic view that higher prices will make new oil resources available. That is true. But, it’s just not true in the way most anticipate.

While higher prices have brought on new supply, these resources have been slow to develop, are more difficult to extract, and generally flow at lower rates of production. As the older oil fields of the world decline, the price of oil must reflect the economics of this new tranche of oil resources.

There are no vast, new supplies of oil that will come online in 2013, 2014, and 2015 at the scale to negate existing global declines. During the entire time that global oil supply has been held at a ceiling of 74 mbpd, since 2005, a lot of new production in the Americas and Africa especially has come online.

But it has not been enough to increase total world supply. And the price of oil has finally started to price in that new reality.
: Re: Things That Make You Go Hmmm – Such As $4.00 Gas (Again)
: Geolibertarian March 19, 2012, 12:19:06 AM
From pages 108-114 of Armed Madhouse (http://books.google.com/books?id=ZBeVQgAACAAJ) by Greg Palast (all emphasis original):

------------------------------------

...we really should take a look at the theory that we went into Iraq to get its oil. A ride up “Hubbert’s Peak” will allow a clearer view of the real topic of this chapter: the geo-politics of petroleum.

No Peaking: The Hubbert Humbug

On March 7, 1956, geologist M. King Hubbert presented a research paper that would, a half century later, become the New Gospel of Internet Economics, the Missing Link that would Explain It All from the September 11 attack to the invasion of Iraq.

In his 1956 paper, Hubbert wrote:


So get in your Hummer and take your last drive, Clive. Sometime during 2006, we will have used up every last drop of crude oil on the planet. We’re not talking “decline” in oil from a production “peak,” we’re talking “culmination,” completely gone, kaput, dead out of crude--and not enough natural gas left to roast a weenie.

In his 1956 treatise, Hubbert wrote that Planet Earth could produce not a drop more than one and a quarter trillion barrels of crude.


That’s the entire supply of crude that stingy Mother Nature bequeathed for human use from Adam to the end of civilization. Indeed, our oil-lusting world will have consumed, by the end of 2006, about 1.2 trillion barrels of oil. Therefore, by Hubbert’s calculation, we’re finished; maybe in the very week you read this book we’ll suck the planet dry. Then, as Porky Pig says, “That’s all, folks!”

But the pig ain’t sung yet. Planes still fly, lovers still cry and smog-o-saurus SUVs still choke the LA freeway. Why aren’t our gas tanks dry? Hubbert insisted Arabia could produce no more than 375 billion barrels of oil. Yet, Middle Eastern oil reserves remaining today total 734 billion barrels. And those are “proven” reserves--known and measured, not including the possibility of a single new oil strike or field extension. Worldwide, ready-to-go reserves total 1.189 trillion barrels--and that excludes the world’s two biggest untapped fields, which could easily double the world reserve. (One is in Iraq, the other we'll get to in Chapter 4.)

In all fairness to the Hubbert Heads, there’s a more sophisticated, updated version of Hubbert’s theory. This is where the “peak” concept comes in. In this version of the Hubbert scripture, we ignore his dead wrong prediction of total crude available and look only at the up and down shape of his curve, the “peak.” The amount of oil discovered each year, Hubbert posited, will stop rising by 2000, then will crash rapidly toward zero when we will have used up our allotted 1.25 trillion barrels.

We haven’t crashed or even peaked. Oil production has risen year after year after year and discoveries have more than kept pace. Nevertheless, like believers undaunted by the failure of alien spaceships to take them to Mars on the date predicted, Peak enthusiasts keep moving the date of the oil apocalypse further into the future. In the new, revisionist models of Hubbert’s prediction, the high point in the curve of discoverable oil on our planet will come in a decade or so. Though we have a reprieve, goes the new theory, still, we’re running out of crude, dude! There’s only another twenty years left in proven reserves! Oh, my!

“It’s true that there’s only twenty years’ supply left-and that’s been true for the last hundred years,” Lewis Lapham told me over a decent sauterne at Five Points....Lapham of Harper’s magazine is the only editor in the hemisphere with hard knowledge of the petroleum market, insight he inherited legitimately: His family helped found Mobil Oil, the back half of what is now ExxonMobil.

He asked, “Why in the world would oil companies, or any company, announce that there’s lots of its product out there? You’d bust your own market. It’s better to say the cupboard’s bare.” As Lapham noted, we have been “running out of oil” since the days we drained it from whales.

OPEC’s big headache before the war shut down Iraq’s fields was that there was way too much oil. We were swimming in it and oil prices stayed low. The last thing oil companies want is more oil from Iraq, any more than soybean farmers want more soybeans from Iraq. Increasing supply means decreasing price.

This war is about the oil, but what about the oil? The Hubbert Peaksters think they know. They are convinced that Dick Cheney in his bunker is panicked that the world’s supply of oil is about to run out, and so to Iraq we go, to seize the last of it. Here’s the flaw in that argument: To believe that George Bush and Dick Cheney hustled us into Iraq to open up that nation’s untapped bounty of petroleum is to believe that these two oil Texans in the White House are deeply troubled that the price of oil will rise unless they get us more crude. But Dick and George get a rise out of the rise.

Have we peaked? The planet is producing today twice as much as the maximum predicted in 1956 by the “Peaking Man.” But the political uses of holy-sh*t-we’re-running-out-of-oil! has yet to peak.

Indeed, Bush and Cheney are more than happy to allow others to promote Hubbert Peak hysteria in the public. “We need Iraq’s oil” is used as a good bogeyman to get the public behind an invasion that promises to get Americans a fill-up for the family gas guzzler for less than a hundred dollars. Anti-war progressives seized on the Hubbert humbug as proof that Bush’s invasion was a war of “Blood for Oil.” Nuns, professors and rock stars were outraged. But the average American thinks, Blood for oil? That’s a BARGAIN.

The Shell Game

Hubbert’s predictions may have been astonishingly wrong but his little forty-page research report is, nevertheless, astonishingly important in understanding the mindset of Big Oil.

Almost everything you need to know about Hubbert and the agenda behind his crucial 1956 study is contained on its cover page. The oil doomsday pronouncement is “Publication No. 95, Shell Development Company, Houston, Texas.” Hubbert was the chief Consultant on general geology for Shell Oil and his “end of oil” paper was presented to the Texas meeting of the American Petroleum Institute. All else flows therefrom.

Every once in a while the landlords of the planet have to remind us to be grateful for their services. In 1956 it was Shell Oil’s turn and Hubbert was their man for the job. It was not a happy time for the oilmen of Texas. Shell and the other Seven Sisters, as Big Oil was then known, faced a heck of a problem: crude was cheaper than dirt--$2.77 a barrel, that is, a nickel a gallon-and sinking. Worse, they were finding more of the stuff all over the planet, meaning prices would fall further.

In March of that year, Hubbert presented the solution to his fellow oilmen at the API in Houston. He unveiled this magical chart. [viewable here (http://www.flickr.com/photos/gregpalast/160136688/in/set-72157594155273706/)]

Look closely. When Hubbert spoke, oil reserves worldwide were zooming heavenward. Despite the tide of petroleum rising around us, Hubbert declared that oil discoveries in the USA had begun to peak “as recently as 1951 or 1952" and that the world’s reserves would follow not long thereafter. He didn’t need to wink. His oil industry audience understood what oil giant Shell wanted America to believe: Oil isn’t abundant, it’s a scarce commodity and therefore...

1. It’s too cheap--so oil companies should, for the public’s own good, raise the price to conserve this precious resource.
2. We need to find an abundant alternative to fossil fuel.
3. We need to protect our access to dwindling sources of crude, by force if necessary.

Shell Oil, through Hubbert, sought, successfully, to change the way America thought of oil’s price, alternatives to oil and access to oil.

PRICE: The problem of falling oil prices was solved for Shell, brilliantly, in four years, in 1960, by the creation of OPEC. On paper, OPEC was created by national governments. If oil companies had created this cartel to fix prices, that would have made it a criminal conspiracy--cartels are illegal. But when governments conspire for the same purpose, the illegal conspiracy turns into a legitimate “alliance” of sovereign states. OPEC’s government cover makes the price-fixing perfectly legal, and Big Oil reaps the rewards....

Have we peaked? Worldwide oil reserves continue to rise even faster than America and China can burn it. Since 1980, reserves, despite our binge-guzzling, have risen from 648 billion to 1.2 trillion barrels. Yet, weirdly, despite the rising flood of discovered crude, its price quadrupled between 2001 and 2005. Supply choked, yet there’s no peak in sight....

So please don’t slander Mother Earth and say she’s run out of oil when it’s man-made mischief to blame. Evil, not geology, has a chokehold on energy; nature is ready to give us crude at $12 a barrel where it was just a few short years ago.

(http://images.barnesandnoble.com/images/16130000/16131132.JPG) (http://books.google.com/books?id=ZBeVQgAACAAJ)

------------------------------------

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-5088683890635214113 (http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-5088683890635214113) (Greg Palast on the Alex Jones show)
: Re: Things That Make You Go Hmmm – Such As $4.00 Gas (Again)
: Geolibertarian March 19, 2012, 12:19:38 AM
http://www.prisonplanet.com/archives/peak_oil/index.htm (http://www.prisonplanet.com/archives/peak_oil/index.htm)

The Myth Of Peak Oil

Paul Joseph Watson & Alex Jones
PrisonPlanet.com
October 12 2005

Peak oil is a scam designed to create artificial scarcity and jack up prices while giving the state an excuse to invade our lives and order us to sacrifice our hard-earned living standards.

Publicly available CFR and Club of Rome strategy manuals from 30 years ago say that a global government needs to control the world population through neo-feudalism by creating artificial scarcity. Now that the social architects have de-industrialized the United States, they are going to blame our economic disintegration on lack of energy supplies.

Globalization is all about consolidation. Now that the world economy has become so centralized through the Globalists operations, they are going to continue to consolidate and blame it on the West's "evil" overconsumption of fossil fuels, while at the same time blocking the development and integration of renewable clean technologies.

In other words, Peak oil is a scam to create artificial scarcity and drive prices up. Meanwhile, alternative fuel technologies which have been around for decades are intentionally suppressed.

Peak oil is a theory advanced by the elite, by the oil industry, by the very people that you would think peak oil would harm, unless it was a cover for another agenda. Which from the evidence of artificial scarcity being deliberately created, the reasons for doing so and who benefits, it’s clear that peak oil is a myth and it should be exposed for what it is. Another excuse for the Globalists to seize more control over our lives and sacrifice more American sovereignty in the meantime.

The lies of artificial scarcity

The crux of the issue is that if oil was plentiful in areas in which we are being told by the government and the oil companies that it is not, then we have clear evidence that artificial scarcity is being simulated in order to drive forward a myriad of other agendas. And we have concrete examples of where this has happened.

Three separate internal confidential memos from Mobil, Chevron and Texaco have been obtained by The Foundation for Taxpayer and Consumer Rights.

These memos outline a deliberate agenda to gouge prices and create artificial scarcity by limiting capacities of and outright closing oil refineries. This was a nationwide lobbying effort led by the American Petroleum Institute to encourage refineries to do this.

An internal Chevron memo states; "A senior energy analyst at the recent API convention warned that if the US petroleum industry doesn't reduce its refining capacity it will never see any substantial increase in refinery margins."

The Memos make clear that blockages in refining capacity and opening new refineries did not come from environmental organizations, as the oil industry claimed, but via a deliberate policy of limitation and price gouging at the behest of the oil industry itself.

[Continued... (http://www.prisonplanet.com/archives/peak_oil/index.htm)]


http://www.counterpunch.org/zadeh10012008.html (http://www.counterpunch.org/zadeh10012008.html)

The Recurring Myth of Peak Oil

By Ismael Hossein-Zadeh
CounterPunch
October 1, 2008

The Peak Oil theory maintains that world production of conventional oil will soon reach a maximum, or peak, and decline thereafter, with grave socio-economic consequences. Some proponents of the theory argue that world oil production has already peaked, and is now in a terminal decline [1].

Although, on the face of it, this sounds like a fairly reasonable proposition, it has been challenged on both theoretical and empirical grounds. While some critics have called it a myth, others have branded it as a money-making scam promoted by the business interests that are vested in the fossil fuel industry, in the business of war and militarism, and in the Wall Street financial giants that are engaged in manipulative oil speculation.

Regardless of its validity (or lack thereof), the fact is that Peak Oil has had significant policy and political implications. It has also generated considerable reactions among various interest groups and political activists.

While environmental and similar activists have used Peak Oil to promote more vigorous conservation and more energetic pursuit of alternative fuels, the oil industry and its representatives in and out of the government have taken advantage of Peak Oil to argue in support of unrestrained extraction of oil and expanded drilling in the offshore or wildlife regions.

Because of its simple logic and facile appeal, Peak Oil has also led many ordinary citizens, burdened by high fuel bills during periods of energy crisis, to support unrestrained or expanded drilling. According to a recent Rasmussen poll, 57 percent of Americans favor more offshore drilling. Misled and misplaced popular perceptions, in turn, play into the hands of the oil industry and their representatives to lobby for the lifting of the Federal ban on oil production in hitherto restricted regions.

Citing voter anger over soaring energy prices, Senator John McCain of Arizona, the Republican presidential nominee, recently argued that opening vast stretches of the country’s coastline to oil exploration would help America eliminate the dependence on foreign oil. "We have untapped oil reserves of at least 21 billion barrels in the United States. But a broad federal moratorium stands in the way of energy exploration and production," he said. "It is time for the federal government to lift these restrictions" [2].

Perhaps the financial giants of New York and London have benefited the most from the misleading implications of Peak Oil: “As much as 60% of today’s crude oil price is pure speculation driven by large trader banks and hedge funds. It has nothing to do with the convenient myths of Peak Oil. It has to do with control of oil and its price. . . . Since the advent of oil futures trading and the two major London and New York oil futures contracts, control of oil prices has left OPEC and gone to Wall Street. It is a classic case of the tail that wags the dog,” points out William Engdahl, a top expert on energy and financial markets [3].

Just as Peak Oil plays into the hands of manipulative speculators and beneficiaries of fossil fuel, so too can it be used by the champions of unilateral wars and military adventures, as it implies that war power and military strength are key to access or control of the “shrinking” or “soon-to-be-shrinking” oil. It thus provides fodder for the cannons of war profiteering militarists who are constantly on the look out to invent new enemies and find new pretexts for continued war and escalation of military spending—that is, for the looting of the national treasury, or public money.

By the same token that Peak Oil can serve as a pretext for war and military adventures, it can also serve as a disarming or pacifying factor for many citizens who accept the Peak Oil thesis and, therefore, internalize responsibility for U.S. foreign policy every time they fill their gas tank. In a vicarious way, they may feel that they own the war!

Thus, Peak Oil serves as a powerful trap and a clever manipulation that lets the real forces of war and militarism (the military-industrial complex and the pro-Israel lobby), and the main culprits behind the soaring energy prices (the Wall Street financial giants engaged in manipulative commodity speculation) off the hook; it is a fabulous distraction. All evils are blamed on a commodity upon which we are all utterly dependent.

Not only millions of lay-citizens, but also many scholars and academics have taken the bait and fallen right into this trap by arguing that recent U.S. wars of choice are driven primarily by oil and other “scarce” resources. More broadly, they argue that most wars of the future, like the recent and/or present ones, will be driven by conflicts over natural resources, especially energy and water—hence, for example, the title of Michael T. Klare’s popular book, Resource Wars [4].

As a number of critics have pointed out, this is reminiscent of Thomas R. Malthus’s theory (http://forum.prisonplanet.com/index.php?topic=185377.msg1097547#msg1097547) of “scarcity” and “overpopulation.” Malthus (1766-1834), a self-styled British economist, argued that the woes and vagaries of capitalism such as poverty, inequality and unemployment are largely to be blamed on the poor and the unemployed, since they produce too many mouths to be fed, or too many hands to be employed.

In a similar fashion, Peak Oil implies that current crisis in energy (and other commodities) markets is to be blamed, in part, on less-developed or relatively poorer nations such as India and China for growing “too fast” and creating “too much” demand on “scarce” resources. (Similarities between the Peak Oil theory and the Malthusian theory of scarcity are further discussed below.)

[Continued... (http://www.counterpunch.org/zadeh10012008.html)]
: Re: Things That Make You Go Hmmm – Such As $4.00 Gas (Again)
: Geolibertarian March 19, 2012, 12:20:46 AM
http://globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=29803 (http://globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=29803)

Why The Huge Spike in Oil Prices? "Peak Oil" or Wall Street Speculation?

by F. William Engdahl

(http://globalresearch.ca/coverStoryPictures2/29803.jpg)

Global Research, March 16, 2012
engdahl.oilgeopolitics.net

Since around October last year, the price of crude oil on world futures markets has exploded. Different people have different explanations. The most common one is the belief in financial markets that a war between either Israel and Iran or the USA and Iran or all three is imminent. Another camp argues that the price is rising unavoidably because the world has passed what they call “Peak Oil (http://forum.prisonplanet.com/index.php?topic=161441.0)”—the point on an imaginary Gaussian Bell Curve (see graph above) at which half of all world known oil reserves have been depleted and the remaining oil will decline in quantity at an accelerating pace with rising price.

Both the war danger and peak oil explanations are off base. As in the astronomic price run-up in the Summer of 2008 when oil in futures markets briefly hit $147 a barrel, oil today is rising because of the speculative pressure on oil futures markets from hedge funds and major banks such as Citigroup, JP Morgan Chase and most notably, Goldman Sachs, the bank always present when there are big bucks to be won for little effort betting on a sure thing. They’re getting a generous assist from the US Government agency entrusted with regulating financial derivatives, the Commodity Futures Trading Corporation (CFTC).

(http://www.globalresearch.ca/articlePictures/oilprices1obrenty.gif)
Source: oilnergy.com

Since the beginning of October 2011, some six months ago, the price of Brent Crude Oil Futures on the ICE Futures exchange has risen from just below $100 a barrel to over $126 per barrel, a rise of more than 25%. Back in 2009 oil was $30.

Yet demand for crude oil worldwide is not rising, but rather is declining in the same period. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that the world oil supply rose by 1.3 million barrels a day in the last three months of 2011 while world demand increased  by just over half that during that same time period.Gasoline usage is down in the US by 8%, Europe by 22% and even in China. Recession across much of the European Union, a deepening recession/depression in the United States and slowdown in Japan have reduced global oil demand while new discoveries are coming online daily and countries like Iraq are increasing supply after years of war. A brief spike in China’s oil purchases in January and February had to do with a decision last December to build their Strategic Petroleum Reserve and is expected to return to more normal import levels by the end of this month.

Why then the huge spike in oil prices?

Playing with ‘paper oil’

A brief look at how today’s “paper oil” markets function is useful. Since Goldman Sachs bought J. Aron & Co., a savvy commodities trader in the 1980’s, trading in crude oil has gone from a domain of buyers and sellers of spot or physical oil to a market where unregulated speculation in oil futures, bets on a price of a given crude on a specific future date, usually in 30 or 60 or 90 days, and not actual supply-demand of physical oil determine daily oil prices.

In recent years, a Wall Street-friendly (and Wall Street financed) US Congress has passed several laws to help the banks that were interested in trading oil futures, among them one that allowed the bankrupt Enron to get away with a financial ponzi scheme worth billions in 2001 before it went bankrupt.

The Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000 (CFMA) was drafted by the man who today is President Obama’s Treasury Secretary, Tim Geithner. The CFMA in effect gave over-the-counter (between financial institutions) derivatives trading in energy futures free reign, absent any US Government supervision, as a result of the financially influential lobbying pressure of the Wall Street banks. Oil and other energy products were exempt under what came to be called the “Enron Loophole.”

In 2008 during a popular outrage against Wall Street banks for causing  the financial crisis, Congress finally passed a law over the veto of President George Bush to “close the Enron Loophole.” And as of January 2011, under the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform act, the CFTC was given authority to impose position caps on oil traders beginning in January 2011.

Curiously, these limits have not yet been implemented by the CFTC. In a recent interview Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont stated that the CFTC doesn't "have the will" to enact these limits and "needs to obey the law.” He adds, "What we need to do is…limit the amount of oil any one company can control on the oil futures market. The function of these speculators is not to use oil but to make profits from speculation, drive prices up and sell." While he has made noises of trying to close the loopholes, CFTC Chairman Gary Gensler has yet to do so. Notably,Gensler is a former executive of, you guessed, Goldman Sachs. The enforcement by the CFTC remains non-existent.

The role of key banks along with oil majors such as BP in manipulating a new oil price bubble since last Autumn, one detached from the physical reality of supply-demand calculations of real oil barrels, is being noted by a number of sources.

A ‘gambling casino…’

Current estimates are that speculators, that is futures traders such as banks and hedge funds who have no intent of taking physical delivery but only of turning a paper profit, today control some 80 percent of the energy futures market, up from 30 percent a decade ago. CFTC Chair Gary Gensler, perhaps to maintain a patina of credibility while his agency ignored the legal mandate of Congress, declared last year in reference to oil markets that "huge inflows of speculative money create a self-fulfilling prophecy that drives up commodity prices." In early March, Kuwaiti Oil Minister Minister Hani Hussein said in an interview broadcast on state television, "Under the supply and demand theory, oil prices today are not justified."

Michael Greenberger, professor at the University of Maryland School of Law and a former CFTC regulator who has tried to draw public attention to the consequences of the US Government’s decisions to allow unbridled speculation and manipulation of energy prices by big banks and funds, recently noted, "There are 50 studies showing that speculation adds an incredible premium to the price of oil, but somehow that hasn't seeped into the conventional wisdom," Greenberger said. "Once you have the market dominated by speculators, what you really have is a gambling casino."

The result of a permissive US Government regulation of oil markets has created the ideal conditions whereby a handful of strategic banks and financial institutions, interestingly the same ones dominating world trade in oil derivatives and the same ones who own the shares of the major oil trading exchange in London, ICE Futures, are able to manipulate huge short-term swings in the price we pay for oil or gasoline or countless other petroleum-based products.

We are in the midst of one of those swings now, one made worse by the Israeli saber-rattling rhetoric over Iran’s nuclear program.

[Continued... (http://globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=29803)]
: Crude-oil prices climb further above $107/barrel
: Letsbereal March 19, 2012, 06:16:23 AM
Crude-oil prices climb further above $107/barrel
19 March 2012
, by V. Phani Kumar - Hong Kong (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crude-oil-prices-climb-further-above-107barrel-2012-03-19

Crude-oil prices rose in electronic trading Monday amid optimism about global economic recovery and as U.S. stock index futures climbed after broad declines on Wall Street Friday.

April crude-oil futures advanced 34 cents, or 0.3%, to $107.40 a barrel during Asian afternoon hours, adding to Friday's $1.95 increase in a regular New York Mercantile Exchange session.

May gasoline futures rose 0.3% to $3.36 per gallon and heating oil slipped 0.1% to $3.29 per gallon.

April natural gas futures added 0.3% to $2.33 per million British thermal units.
: Brent crude $123.60 and U.S. crude $105.35 a barrel now
: Letsbereal March 20, 2012, 02:54:58 PM
UPDATE 10-Oil falls as Saudi Arabia seeks to calm markets
20 March 2012
, by Matthew Robinson - New York (Reuters)
http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/03/20/markets-oil-idINL6E8EK21X20120320

* Saudi pumping 9.9 mln bpd, inventories full - Naimi

* Saudi can hike output to 12.5 mln bpd immediately-Naimi

* Germany, France say no need to tap emergency stocks

Brent crude fell
$2.11 to $123.60 a barrel by 1:44 p.m. EDT (1744 GMT), off earlier lows of $123.20. U.S. crude fell $2.74 to $105.35 a barrel.

: Brent crude $123.53 and U.S. crude $106.35 a barrel now
: Letsbereal March 22, 2012, 03:23:01 AM
Oil Declines as Emergency Crude Stockpile Release Studied
22 March 2012
, by Ben Sharples (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-21/crude-oil-declines-from-highest-close-in-two-days-in-new-york.html

Oil fell in New York for the second time in three days after France said industrialized nations are considering a release from strategic stockpiles and a report showed Chinese manufacturing may contract.

Futures dropped as much as 0.9% after French Industry Minister Eric Besson said the country is “studying with its partners all possible options,” including the supply of oil from emergency reserves.

Manufacturing in China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer, may decline for a fifth month in March, according to a preliminary report today from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics.

“The big story at the moment is the Chinese slowdown, the economy slowing down there and how that’ll have an effect on demand,” Jonathan Barratt, chief executive of Barratt’s Bulletin, a commodity markets newsletter in Sydney, said in a Bloomberg Television interview.

Crude for May delivery slid as much as 92 cents to $106.35 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

It was at $106.39 at 1:11 p.m. Singapore time. The contract gained $1.20 yesterday to the highest close since March 19. Prices are 7.8 percent higher this year.

Brent oil for May settlement on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange declined as much as 67 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $123.53 a barrel.

The European benchmark contract was at a premium of $17.15 to New York futures. The difference was $16.93 yesterday, the smallest in three weeks.

An index of China’s manufacturing may drop to a four-month low of 48.1 from 49.6 in February, according to HSBC and Markit Economics.

A reading below 50 indicates contraction.
: Brent crude $123.53 and U.S. crude $105.75 a barrel now
: Letsbereal March 23, 2012, 05:19:20 AM
UPDATE 2-Brent holds above $123, supply worries support
23 March 2012
, by Francis Kan - Singapore (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/23/markets-oil-idUSL3E8EN1PD20120323

Excerpt:

* Oil prices headed for weekly drop

* Brent to average $114.30 in 2012 -Reuters poll

* Major Asian buyers cut Iranian imports

* No plans to release strategic oil stocks -IEA

* Coming up: U.S. new home sales Feb; 1400 GMT (Updates prices)

Brent was steady above $123 a barrel on Friday, as the possibility of supply disruptions put a floor under a market that fell sharply in the previous session on weak manufacturing activity in China.


The potential loss of Iranian crude supplies amid tightening Western sanctions and news that the International Energy Agency (IEA) was not planning to release reserves from strategic storage as of now also supported oil markets.

"The Iran situation has a long way to run and that will keep the market tight and support crude oil," said Tony Nunan, a risk manager with Mitsubishi Corp in Tokyo. "The market had fallen enough yesterday and trading will be locked in a range for now."

Brent crude rose 39 cents to $123.53 a barrel by 0758 GMT. The benchmark is set to fall 1.8 percent this week, after ending flat in the previous week.

U.S. crude was up 40 cents at $105.75 a barrel, and is poised for a 1.2 percent drop this week, its second straight weekly decline.
: Oil up over 1% on report of drop in Iran exports
: Letsbereal March 23, 2012, 05:36:18 PM
Oil up over 1% on report of drop in Iran exports
23 March 2012
, by Myra P. Saefong - San Francisco (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-up-over-1-on-report-of-drop-in-iran-exports-2012-03-23

Oil futures tacked on 1.5% Friday, buoyed by a report that said Iranian oil exports have fallen this month.

Oil exports from Iran appear to have fallen in March by around 300,000 barrels per day, or 14%, according to a report from Reuters.

May crude traded at $106.87 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up $1.52. Prices posted only modest gains before the report was released.

Ahead of the close, May Brent crude was up $1.85, or 1.5%, to $124.99 a barrel on ICE Futures in London.

Read the full story: Oil climbs as traders gauge demand, supply outlook http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crude-oil-rises-as-commodity-prices-rebound-2012-03-23
: Brent crude $125.64 and U.S. crude $107.21 a barrel now
: Letsbereal March 27, 2012, 12:43:48 PM
OIL FUTURES: Crude Little Changed Ahead Of Fresh Data
27 March 2012
, by Dan Strumpf of Dow Jones Newswires - New York (Dow Jones)
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20120327-709418.html

Excerpt:

--Crude oil flat as traders await additional guidance from data

--Monday trading volume was lowest all year

--Lack of Iran news keeps traders on sidelines

Crude-oil futures were little changed for the second straight session Tuesday, as uncertainty over Iran and forthcoming U.S. data left traders hesitant to stake big positions
.

Trading volumes has been thin in recent days, with Monday's trading volume in benchmark Nymex futures at the lowest level all year.

Light, sweet crude for May delivery rose 18 cents, or 0.2%, to $107.21 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Brent crude on ICE Futures Europe fell 1 cent to $125.64 a barrel.
: Gasoline rose a whopping 26% quarterly
: Letsbereal April 01, 2012, 04:14:01 AM
UPDATE 9-Oil ends quarter up 14 pct on Iran, supply problems
30 March 2012
, by Robert Gibbons  - New York (Reuters)
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/03/30/markets-oil-idUKL3E8EU2A20120330

Excerpt:

* Brent up 14 pct for the quarter, U.S. crude up 4%

* Obama to move forward on sanctions on Iranian oil buyers

Oil rose on Friday to post the biggest quarterly gain since the beginning of 2011 as the growing threat of a disruption of Iranian exports added to supply concerns.


Brent May crude traded up 49 cents to settle at $122.88 a barrel. Prices were up $15.50 since the end of December, the biggest quarterly rise since the first quarter of 2011.  

U.S. May crude settled at $103.02 a barrel, up 24 cents on the day and $4.19, and up over 4% from last quarter.

Despite the quarterly gains, Brent has traded mostly between $122 and $127 a barrel over the past five weeks, as traders balance supply losses against weak demand in the West and worries about the euro zone.

U.S. gasoline futures, which have been supported by the shutdown of East Coast refineries and the rising price of crude, rose 26% for the quarter -- the biggest quarterly gain since the same period in 2011.  

Heating oil futures were up nearly 8% in the first quarter, despite the mild winter that damped demand.
  
Trading was light with Brent volumes 18% below the 30-day moving average and U.S. crude 33% below average.  

Oil prices got an early boost on Friday when the euro edged up against the dollar and the yen as Spain's budget boosted hopes one of the euro zone's larger economies would tighten its belt.

A weaker greenback can lift dollar-denominated oil by making it less expensive for consumers using other currencies.
: Gas in Northeast to rise 15 to 25 cents a gallon in coming weeks: analyst
: Letsbereal April 01, 2012, 05:46:16 AM
Gas in Northeast to rise 15 to 25 cents a gallon in coming weeks: analyst
30 March 2012
, by Steve Gelsi (MarketWatch - Blogs)
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2012/03/30/gas-in-northeast-to-rise-15-to-25-cents-a-gallon-in-coming-weeks-analyst/

Gasoline prices continued their relentless upward move Friday, with the average retail price up about a penny in the last day to $3.93 a gallon, according to the AAA Daily Fuel Gauge Report

A month ago, gasoline cost $3.73, and a year ago in the good old days, it cost $3.61 a gallon.

The rise continues even though oil supplies in the U.S. remain plentiful.

When asked about rising gasoline prices against a glut of crude, Tom Kloza of the Oil Price Information Service – the outfit that supplies the data for the AAA’s daily report —  said one culprit could be the more costly refining process for making summer blends of gasoline.

He noted that wholesale gasoline prices “went ballistic” in the Chicago area last week as suppliers switched to summer blends of gasoline, designed to burn more cleanly to reduce smog levels during the intense heat of May, June, July and August. 

After Chicago, price jumps are likely in the Northeast, the very place where some big refineries that make summer gasoline blends have been shuttered.

Kloza figures these areas may be facing a jump of 15 to 25 cents a gallon from current levels in the coming weeks.

“Smart people have wagered bets in the futures market that this summer, gas will be in tight supply,” Kloza said.

Already, U.S. officials have hinted they may tap in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which could bring short-term relief from gasoline prices ahead of this fall’s presidential election.   

Experts say U.S, oil reserve release possible.

In the long run, increased use of biofuel and higher fuel mileage standards for cars may ease demand for petroleum, but for now, gasoline prices seem to be headed higher — at least until the start of the summer driving season in May.
: Brent crude $123.43 and U.S. crude $103.31 a barrel now
: Letsbereal April 08, 2012, 11:10:03 AM
UPDATE 9-Oil rises as US data, supply fears fuel rebound
5 April 2012
, by Gene Ramos - New York (Reuters)
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/04/05/markets-oil-idUKL3E8F50RU20120405

* U.S. jobless claims drop to near four-year low

* Iraq-Turkey pipelines shut after explosions

* Chinese insurer drops coverage for tankers with Iranian oil

* Coming up: U.S. nonfarm payrolls data for March, Friday

Oil rose on Thursday after two straight days of losses, as a drop in U.S. jobless claims to near four-year lows and fears of Iran-related supply disruptions spurred a rebound from the previous session's heavy losses
.

Data from the U.S. Labor Department showing first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell to the lowest level since April 2008 gave U.S. prices an early boost, with further strength coming from short covering ahead of the three-day holiday weekend.

In recent months, new jobless claims have fallen sharply, boosting hopes that the end of a long stretch of heavy layoffs will lead to more hiring, ultimately boosting demand for motor fuel and other energy products.

Fears of supply shrinkage also helped push oil higher, highlighted by a note to clients from JPMorgan that Iran's crude oil production could fall 1 million barrels per day by the end of June to below 2.5 million bpd.

The reason is that refiners have cut oil demand from the Islamic Republic faster than previously expected, the bank said, ahead of a European Union embargo on Iranian that takes effect by July 1.

In London, ICE Brent crude for May delivery settled at $123.43 per barrel, up $1.09, climbing back from the session low of $121.82. For the week, the contract rose 55 cents, after three consecutive down weeks.

U.S. May crude settled at $103.31 a barrel, gaining $1.84, after climbing to the day's high of $103.40 in a late burst of short-covering. For the week, the contract rose 29 cents, ending three successive weeks of losses.

"The move higher on crude has also liquidated the gasoline crack, which hit a high of more than $40 yesterday, but has fallen to $36.75 today," added Tony Rosado, options broker ag GA Global Markets in New York.

Brent crude's premium against U.S. crude narrowed to $20.12 at the close, after hitting $21.72 on Wednesday, the widest since October, supported by U.S. government data showing oil stockpiles at the U.S. delivery hub in Cushing, Oklahoma, rose sharply last week to hit their highest level since May 21.

Total U.S. crude oil inventories jumped by more than 16 million barrels over the past two weeks, the biggest increase since March 2001.

The rise eased concerns about supplies after a string of outages from the North Sea, South Sudan, and Syria as well as the potential loss of Iranian exports due to U.S. and EU sanctions sent Brent prices up 15% this year.

Wednesday's oil futures slumped more than 2% as a result.

"With oil falling so sharply, traders simply grabbed WTI today, but upside movements on Brent and U.S. product futures were not as strong," said Tim Evans, energy analyst at Citi Futures Perspective in New York.

"Book squaring ahead of the long weekend and short-term technical support also figured in the day's trade," Evans added.

Thursday's Brent crude trading volume was down 4% while U.S. crude dealings fell 24%, both based on their 30-day average, according to Reuters data.

In early trade, supply disruption worries lifted prices on news that a major Chinese ship insurer will halt indemnity coverage for tankers carrying Iranian oil, a move that could seriously complicate Iran's oil exports before the EU embargo comes into force.

China is the top buyer of Iranian crude and the insurance move is the first sign Chinese refiners may struggle to obtain shipping and insurance coverage the4y nee3d to keep importing from OPEC's second biggest producer.

Japanese refiners also plan to cut crude imports from Tehran yet again in April as they shy away from renewing annual contracts.

Adding to supply worries, explosions had temporarily shut on Thursday both of the pipelines bringing about a quarter of Iraq's crude exports from Kirkuk to the Turkish port of Ceyhan on the Mediterranean.

News that a rocket fired from Egypt's Sinai desert struck the southern Israeli resort of Eilat on Thursday also fuelled the early rise in oil prices, traders said.

"Geopolitical and supply risk worries are pushing oil prices higher ahead of a three-day holiday weekend," said Gene McGillian, analyst at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut.

A report that Royal Dutch Shell will cut production from the Mars field, a major supplier of sour crude from the Gulf of Mexico, according to trading sources, also added to supply uncertainties, particularly for U.S. crude.
: Webster Tarpley's World Crisis Radio about Oil Prices - Audio
: Letsbereal April 08, 2012, 05:55:36 PM
Webster Tarpley's World Crisis Radio about Oil Prices 7 April 2012 - Audio http://tarpley.net/audio/getfile.php?f=WCR-20120407.mp3
: Brent crude $118.78 and U.S. crude $104.20 a barrel now
: Letsbereal April 17, 2012, 05:37:01 PM
UPDATE 9-US crude jumps, Brent lags, spread narrows
17 April 2012
, by Robert Gibbons - New York (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/17/markets-oil-idUSL3E8FH15O20120417

Excerpt:

Brent June crude edged up 10 cents to $118.78 a barrel, having swung between $117.98 and $119.34.

U.S. May crude futures rose $1.27 to settle at $104.20 a barrel, the highest close since April 2, after reaching $105.07. The May contract expires on Friday.

The spread unwinding came as total Brent crude trading volume slightly outpaced U.S. crude turnover. Volume was above the 30-day average for both contracts.

"The Brent-WTI unwind is the primary feature today," said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital LLC.
: Crude-oil supplies rose 3.4 mln barrels, API says
: Letsbereal April 18, 2012, 08:01:20 AM
Crude-oil supplies rose 3.4 mln barrels, API says
17 April 2012
, by Myra P. Saefong - San Francisco (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crude-oil-supplies-rose-34-mln-barrels-api-says-2012-04-17

The American Petroleum Institute reported late Tuesday that crude-oil supplies rose by 3.4 million barrels for the week ended April 13.

Gasoline inventories fell by 2.6 million barrels, while distillate inventories were 2.4 million barrels lower, the trade group said.

The API data come ahead of the more closely-watched U.S. Energy Information Administration report due Wednesday morning.

Analysts polled by Platts expect data to show a rise of 400,000 barrels in crude stockpiles and an increase of 140,000 barrels in gasoline supplies.

Distillate stocks are expected to be unchanged. Ahead of the API data, May crude settled at $104.20 a barrel, up $1.27 or 1.2%.
: Brent crude $118.49 and U.S. crude $102.58 a barrel now
: Letsbereal April 19, 2012, 09:36:26 AM
UPDATE 5-Oil rises on risk outlook, Spain auction
19 April 2012
, by Simon Falush - London (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/19/markets-oil-idUSL6E8FJ3RO20120419

Excerpt:

Brent June crude gained 52 cents to $118.49 a barrel at 1240 GMT after hitting $116.70 in the previous session, its lowest in more than two months.

U.S. May crude fell 9 cents to $102.58 a barrel, after falling more than a dollar in the previous session. The May contract expires on Friday.


Like the Arabs said $100 oil is the new normal so it only can go higher not lower – not below $100.
: More managers trim bets oil futures will go lower
: Letsbereal April 20, 2012, 05:43:12 PM
More managers trim bets oil futures will go lower
20 April 2012
, by Claudia Assis - San Francisco (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/more-managers-trim-bets-oil-futures-will-go-lower-2012-04-20

With more managers reducing bets oil futures will go lower, the tide may be turning for oil, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission late Friday.

Money managers's bets prices will go higher, or "longs," declined by nearly 3,850 positions, whereas opposite bets, or "shorts," declined by a little over 11,300.

"Short" positions had declined 8,300 positions last week.

Oil ended 0.8% higher on Friday at $103.05 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, but prices only added 0.2% on the week.


Brent crude $118.85 and U.S. crude $103.05 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Brent crude $118.59 and U.S. crude $102.97 a barrel now
: Letsbereal April 24, 2012, 02:53:22 AM
Brent crude $118.48 and U.S. crude $103.03 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1


Brent crude steady under $119; Europe, Iran eyed
24 April 2012
, by Luke Pachymuthu (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/24/us-markets-oil-idUSBRE83H17O20120424
: Weekly U.S. crude stockpiles up 4 million barrels
: Letsbereal April 25, 2012, 04:34:34 PM
Weekly U.S. crude stockpiles up 4 million barrels
25 April 2012
, by Jerry A. DiColo - New York (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/weekly-us-crude-stockpiles-up-4-million-barrels-2012-04-25

U.S. crude inventories rose by more than analysts' expectations last week, according to data released Wednesday by the U.S. Department of Energy.

Crude oil stockpiles rose 4 million barrels to 373 million barrels, compared with an average survey estimate calling for a 1.9-million-barrel increase.

The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, reported a 985,000-barrel draw in its weekly report released late Tuesday.

Gasoline stockpiles fell by 2.2 million barrels to 211.7 million barrels, the department's Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report, compared with a 1-million-barrel drop forecast in a Dow Jones Newswires survey of analysts.

Distillate stocks, which include heating oil and diesel fuel, fell 3.1 million barrels to 125.9 million barrels, compared with analysts' forecast of a 100,000-barrel increase.

Refining capacity utilization rose 0.1 percentage point to 84.7%. Analysts had expected a 0.5 percentage point rise.

API pegged refinery utilization at 82.9% last week, up from 82.3%. The industry group reported stockpiles of gasoline fell by 3.643 million barrels and distillates fell by 3.561 million barrels.
: Brent crude $119.04 and U.S. crude $104.07 a barrel now
: Letsbereal April 25, 2012, 04:44:26 PM
Brent crude $119.01 and U.S. crude $104.07 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1


Oil edges up, shakes off post-Fed weakness
25 April 2012
, by Claudia Assis and Michael Kitchen - San Francisco (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-extends-gains-after-api-supply-data-2012-04-25

Excerpt:

Demand for oil and other energy products continued to be weak, a tad lower on the week and down 3.2% on the year, said Tim Evans, an analyst with Citigroup’s Citi Futures Perspective, in a note to clients.

Long term, Citi analysts said market sentiment toward crude and the wider petroleum market is “robustly bullish.

Our base case assumptions for the second half of the year include both stronger seasonal demand and lower [Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries] production,” they said.

This would be consistent with either a scenario where Iranian production declines moderately, or one where Iranian production stabilizes but other OPEC production is reduced to help limit a drop in price on an easing of tensions,” Citi said.
: BASF CEO doesn't expect oil price to drop
: Letsbereal April 27, 2012, 05:35:03 PM
BASF CEO doesn't expect oil price to drop
27 April 2012
, by Heide Oberhauser-Aslan - Frankfurt (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/basf-ceo-doesnt-expect-oil-price-to-drop-2012-04-27

German chemical company BASF SE doesn't expect oil prices to fall in the foreseeable future, Chief Executive Kurt Bock said Friday.

BASF expects prices to remain high, and possibly even to rise, depending on political developments in the Middle East, he said at the firm's annual general meeting.

Whether the company can pass on higher costs to customers will depend on how the economy develops, he said, adding this was only partially possible in the first quarter because of increased customer caution in several markets.

BASF's full-year forecasts are based on a Brent oil price estimate of $100 per barrel.
: Brent crude $119.70 and U.S. crude $104.77 a barrel now
: Letsbereal April 27, 2012, 05:36:48 PM
Brent crude $119.70 and U.S. crude $104.70 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: OPEC oil output at highest level since 2008
: Letsbereal May 01, 2012, 01:10:56 AM
OPEC oil output at highest level since 2008
30 April 2012
, by Myra Saefong (MarketWatch - Blogs)
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2012/04/30/opec-oil-output-at-highest-level-since-2008/

Oil production from Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has climbed back to levels not seen since 2008, as Iranian supplies drop to their lowest since 1990, according to a report Monday.

April oil output from the 12-member OPEC averaged 31.75 million barrels per day, up from a revised 31.32 million, a Reuters survey of oil companies, OPEC officials and analysts released Monday showed, pegging it as the highest since September 2008.

The biggest supply increase came from Iraq, with production topping 3 million barrels per day, up 230,000 barrels per day from last month, the survey showed.

Meanwhile, industry sources outside of Iran indicated that output there fell to 3.15 million barrels per day in April, which would be the lowest Iranian output since 1990, the survey said, citing data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

The European Union announced an embargo on Iran in January that will take effect this summer.

“Most European imports have stopped or will by the end of June,” said James Williams, an energy economist at WTRG Economics, in his latest report.

The fall in Iranian supply comes with spare oil production capacity in OPEC on the decline.

The EIA estimates OPEC spare capacity at near 2.5 million barrels per day, down about 1 million from last year, Williams said, adding that there is no spare capacity outside of OPEC.

Iran has the capacity to export 2.2 million barrels per day and a “total halt” to Iranian exports would bring spare capacity below half a million barrels per day, he said.


Still Brent crude $119.19 and U.S. crude $104.70 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Oil trades at best in five weeks after ISM - Traders await for inventories data
: Letsbereal May 01, 2012, 01:53:18 PM
Oil trades at best in five weeks after ISM - Traders await for inventories data
30 April 2012
, by Claudia Assis and Virginia Harrison - San Francisco (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-begins-new-month-on-weaker-note-2012-04-30

Excerpt:

Crude-oil futures turned higher Tuesday and shot to their highest in five weeks after data showed U.S. manufacturing expanding at a modestly faster pace in April.

Crude for June delivery gained $1.16, or 1.1%, to $106.04 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. A close along these lines would be oil's highest since late March.

Oil gathered steam after the Institute for Supply Management's index showed U.S. manufacturing expanding in April. The index climbed to 54.8% last month, from 53.4% in March.

Analysts polled by MarketWatch had expected the index a decline to 53.3%.


First it was the bad news driving oil (keywords: Iran, boycot, oil shortages) now it's the ‘ good news’ that's driving oil (Keyword: ISM – Institute of Supply Management).

So either way, explained away why oil prices should rise bad or good news. How convenient.



Definition of ‘ISM Manufacturing Index’

An index based on surveys of more than 300 manufacturing firms by the Institute of Supply Management.

The ISM Manufacturing Index monitors employment, production inventories, new orders and supplier deliveries.

A composite diffusion index is created that monitors conditions in national manufacturing based on the data from these surveys.

Investopedia explains ‘ISM Manufacturing Index’ http://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/ism-mfg.asp

By monitoring the ISM Manufacturing Index, investors are able to better understand national economic conditions.

When this index is increasing, investors can assume that the stock markets should increase because of higher corporate profits.

The opposite can be thought of the bond markets, which may decrease as the ISM Manufacturing Index increases because of sensitivity to potential inflation.


Still Brent crude $119.70 and U.S. crude $106.36 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: OPEC ups April output despite Iran's 20-year low
: Letsbereal May 02, 2012, 11:36:55 AM
OPEC ups April output despite Iran's 20-year low
2 May 2012
, by Benoit Faucon - London (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/opec-ups-april-output-despite-irans-20-year-low-2012-05-02

OPEC's crude-oil output kept rising in April, as Iraq offset Iran's production decline to a 20-year low, according to a Dow Jones survey.

Crude production from the 12 members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries was up by 115,000 barrels a day from March, at 31.820 million barrels a day, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey of industry sources and analysts.

The increase came despite Iran's production declining to its lowest level since 1990, at 3.2 million barrels a day, according to data from Vienna-based JBC Energy GmbH.

The Islamic Republic's oil sector is being hit by a combination of sanctions targeting both its fields and exports.

But other OPEC producers in the Persian Gulf have been able to offset the Iranian decline.

Iraq has reached its highest production in 20 years, at 3.060 million barrels a day, after opening a second offshore export terminal.

On a monthly basis, Iraqi production was up 193,000 barrels a day, the survey shows.


a. Dow Jones Newswires assesses OPEC output from data supplied by primary sources, traders and analysts. Totals may not add due to independent rounding of numbers.
 
b. At its Dec. 14, 2011, meeting in Vienna, OPEC agreed a new production ceiling of 30 million barrels a day applying to all members, but without individual quotas for each country. The new ceiling takes effect from January.


Still Brent crude $119.02 and U.S. crude $105.41 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Oil supplies up by 2.04 million barrels, API says
: Letsbereal May 03, 2012, 06:55:10 AM
Oil supplies up by 2.04 million barrels, API says
1 May 2012
, by Claudia Assis - San Francisco (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-supplies-up-by-204-million-barrels-api-says-2012-05-01

Crude-oil inventories rose 2.04 million barrels on the week ended April 27, a trade group said late Tuesday.

The American Petroleum Institute also reported that gasoline stockpiles declined 3.9 million barrels, and inventories of distillates were down 4.2 million barrels on the week.

The API report comes ahead of the more closely watched official data from the Department of Energy, due on Wednesday.

Analysts polled by Platts expect crude inventories to rise 2.5 million barrels, gasoline stockpiles down 1 million barrels, and inventories of distillates down 400,000 barrels.

Oil rallied Tuesday, with the June contract settling at a five-week high of $106.16 a barrel after positive U.S. manufacturing data.


Still Brent crude $117.75 and U.S. crude $104.88 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: OPEC wants to push oil down to $100/bbl: Chief
: Letsbereal May 03, 2012, 07:51:10 AM
OPEC wants to push oil down to $100/bbl: Chief
3 May 2012
, by Benoit Faucon - Paris (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/opec-wants-to-push-oil-down-to-100bbl-chief-2012-05-03

OPEC wants to push oil prices back down to $100 a barrel by boosting production as it fears demand destruction, the group's chief said Thursday.

The shift in policy by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries may help further relieve prices that have already eased amid brimming inventories.

Speaking at an energy conference in Paris, OPEC Secretary General Abdalla Salem el-Badri said: "We are trying to bring the price down."

"We are not happy" with prices at $110-$130 a barrel, el-Badri said.

"There will be destruction as far as demand is concerned."

Instead, he said OPEC wants prices at "$100, which is good for producers and consumers."

El-Badri said OPEC production increased to 32 million barrels a day in March, two million barrels a day higher than the ceiling agreed by the group in December.


OPEC chief worried about 'patchy' global growth
3 May 2012
, Paris (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/opec-chief-worried-about-patchy-global-growth-2012-05-03

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries remain worried about uncertain global economic growth, its head said Thursday, as oil market concerns shift from supply to demand.

Speaking at a Paris energy conference, Abdalla Salem el-Badri said:

"As we head into the second half, there remain many concerns for the market...global economic growth remains patchy."

Oil prices have eased recently as ample Gulf supply relieved markets rattled by fears of disruption to Iranian flows.

But market participants are now getting worried the economy may not be able to absorb current oil production.

Fresh data from the euro-zone countries this week showed the manufacturing sector shrank in April at the fastest pace in nearly three years.

March unemployment in the euro zone tied the record high hit 15 years earlier.

"The euro zone continues to struggle with sovereign debt issues," el-Badri said.

There are also questions on whether problems in industrialized nations could spill over to developing economies if they cut investment or imports, he said.
: Total CEO sees no short-term relief for oil prices, World energy demand growing
: Letsbereal May 03, 2012, 07:55:58 AM
Total CEO sees no short-term relief for oil prices
3 May 2012
, by Geraldine Amiel - Paris (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/total-ceo-sees-no-short-term-relief-for-oil-prices-2012-05-03

There are no short term measures that could address the current strength in oil prices, French oil major Total SA's Chairman and Chief Executive Christophe de Margerie said Thursday.

Asked about a potential use of strategic oil reserves, de Margerie declined to comment.

Earlier Thursday Maria Van Der Hoeven, executive director of the International Energy Agency, said the organization "stands ready to act if there is a major disruption" and alternatives aren't available.

Eric Besson, France's energy minister, also said "we are ready to intervene if necessary."

De Margerie said that unless geopolitical tensions abate around the world, and notably in the Middle East, "prices will remain too high."

In spite of several attacks over the past two months, which left one of its employees and one local soldier dead, Total remains committed to develop Yemen's gas field, de Margerie also said, adding he hopes a solution would be soon found to avoid Total's employees from being exposed to attacks.

As for the next Iraqi exploration round, de Margerie said he was still waiting to see the documents before reaching a decision on whether to bid.


Total CEO sees world energy demand growing
3 May 2012
, by Geraldine Amiel - Paris (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/total-ceo-sees-world-energy-demand-growing-2012-05-03

World energy demand should grow 25% by 2030, mostly supported by the needs of emerging markets, French oil major Total SA's Chairman and Chief Executive Christophe de Margerie said Thursday.

Speaking at a Paris energy conference, de Margerie said that global oil production should increase to around 96 million barrels a day by 2020-2030, noting that fossil energies should still represent 76% of supply in 2030, in spite of the increasing tap into renewable sources.

As oil prices remain high, large investments are required to keep finding new reserves, to develop more fields even in extreme conditions, de Margerie also said.

"There are plenty of extra reserves on this planet," he insisted.


Still Brent crude $117.87 and U.S. crude $104.75 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Oil consumers ready to tap stockpiles if needed
: Letsbereal May 03, 2012, 08:04:46 AM
Oil consumers ready to tap stockpiles if needed
3 May 2012
, by Benoit Faucon - Paris (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-consumers-ready-to-tap-stockpiles-if-needed-2012-05-03

Oil consumers could still tap into strategic stockpiles if needed, top energy officials said Thursday, after the scenario appear to lose momentum in the past month.

Speaking at a Paris energy conference, Maria Van Der Hoeven, executive director of the International Energy Agency, said the organization "stands ready to act if there is a major disruption" and alternatives aren't available.

Eric Besson, France's industry minister who is in charge of energy policy, said: "We are ready to intervene if necessary."

The scenario gathered steam in March when the U.S., U.K. and French governments said they were looking at releasing some of their strategic reserves, amid mounting fears over loss if supply from Iran.

But the plan lost some of its momentum.

Gulf producers boosted output and filled up commercial inventories while an adviser to Francois Hollande, seen as the likely winner in French presidential election, says he opposes such measure.

Van Der Hoeven, whose organization represents some of the world's largest consumers, said a release should only be used as a last resort.

"We can use the bridge only once," she said.
: Re: Still Brent crude $117.87 and U.S. crude $104.75 a barrel now
: Letsbereal May 04, 2012, 07:44:49 PM
Brent crude $116.18 and U.S. crude $102.71 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Citigroup’s Morse Sees Brent Crude Oil Rising to $130 - Vid
: Letsbereal May 05, 2012, 10:47:54 AM
Citigroup’s Morse Sees Crude Oil Rising to $130 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uHv1HkhJjk8

May 4 (Bloomberg) -- Edward Morse, global head of commodities research at Citigroup Inc. , talks about the outlook for oil markets and his investment strategy.

He speaks with Trish Regan and Adam Johnson on Bloomberg Television's "Street Smart." Jason Schenker, president of Prestige Economics LLC, also speaks. (Source: Bloomberg)
: Money managers add to bets oil will go higher
: Letsbereal May 05, 2012, 04:26:25 PM
Money managers add to bets oil will go higher
4 May 2012
, by Claudia Assis - San Francisco (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/money-managers-add-to-bets-oil-will-go-higher-2012-05-04

Money managers beefed up their bets oil futures would go higher just before the big price drop this week, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission out late Friday showed.

Open interest in crude also rose nearly 4%.

The managers added 22,302 contracts in new "long" positions to nearly 220,000 contracts in net long positions.

They reduced "short" positions, or bets prices will go lower, by about 1,100.

The data is to Tuesday, and oil started its downward spiral on Wednesday.

June futures ended 6.1% lower on the week at $98.49 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest in 12 weeks.


Brent crude $113.20 and U.S. crude $98.52 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Kuwait Petroleum to boost oil, gas output - Leak in Shell Nigerian pipeline
: Letsbereal May 07, 2012, 09:17:41 PM
Kuwait Petroleum to boost oil, gas output
7 May 2012
, by Summer Said - Riyadh (Zawya Dow Jones - MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/kuwait-petroleum-to-boost-oil-gas-output-2012-05-07

Kuwait Gulf Oil Co. plans to increase its oil production by 100,000 barrels a day to 350,000 barrels a day by 2014-15, state-run Kuwait News Agency, or KUNA, reports Monday, citing the company's chairman and managing director.

The unit of Kuwait Petroleum Corp. is also aiming to increase gas extracted from oil fields to 500 million feet during the same period, Hashem al-Rifaee said, without giving comparative figures, according to KUNA.

KGOC's target is part of KPC's plan to raise OPEC member Kuwait's output to 4 million barrels a day from the current 3 million barrels a day by 2020.

The firm is also involved in several exploration and development ventures for the extraction and treatment of oil-linked gas as part of a wider plan to secure 400 million cubic feet of gas by 2020 and 500 million cubic feet by 2030, he added.



Leak reported in Shell Nigerian pipeline
7 May 2012
, by Alexis Flynn - London (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/leak-reported-in-shell-nigerian-pipeline-2012-05-07

A leak on Royal Dutch Shell PLC's Bomu-Bonny oil pipeline in Nigeria has been spilling around 150 liters of crude oil a minute since Monday morning, a local community member said.

"Another serious oil spill occurred four hours ago on the pipeline, approximately 200 meters south of the Bomu manifold. About 150 liters of oil is oozing out every minute," said the community member Monday.

The manifold is located on the Bomu-Bonny Trans-Niger pipeline, which normally carries around 120,000 barrels a day. It is unclear if oil transit has been disrupted by attempts to stop the leak.

Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria Ltd. is "investigating reports of a leak on a section of the Trans-Niger Pipeline at K-Dere in Ogoniland," a Shell spokesman said.

According to the community member, an SPDC remediation team working in the area has arrived at the scene to address the leak.


Brent crude $113.33 and U.S. crude $97.75 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: ICE reports record volume in Brent oil options
: Letsbereal May 26, 2012, 01:55:21 AM
ICE reports record volume in Brent oil options
25 May 2012
, by Steve Gelsi - New York (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ice-reports-record-volume-in-brent-oil-options-2012-05-25

IntercontinentalExchange Inc. said it recorded record volume in ICE Brent Crude options of 78,508 contracts on Thursday.

The volume level broke the old record of 63,494 on May 2.

The regulated futures exchange, which also handles transactions for clearing houses and over-the-counter markets, said growth in trading in Brent crude has been driven by "rising demand for risk management in regulated energy futures markets."

In recent trades on Friday, Brent Crude rose 45 cents to $107 a barrel.


Brent crude $106.90 and U.S. crude $90.74 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: European oil companies face hurdles with Iran ban
: Letsbereal May 26, 2012, 02:00:07 AM
European oil companies face hurdles with Iran ban
25 May 2012
, by Gurdeep Singh - Singapore (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/european-oil-companies-face-hurdles-with-iran-ban-2012-05-25

Excerpt:

-- EU's Iran sanctions, trading system, may leave companies vulnerable

-- No way to determine if oil offered in Platts window is Iranian

-- Traders contend embargo on blended Iranian fuel tough to implement

A European Union ban on Iran's oil from July could have major consequences for European oil companies in Asia, as little-understood provisions in the sanctions law could see them facing investigation despite their best efforts to stay legal
.
: Brent crude $97.34 and U.S. crude $83.47 a barrel now
: Letsbereal July 02, 2012, 04:20:08 PM
Brent crude $97.34 and U.S. crude $83.47 a barrel now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Time to keep an eye on oil prices again.
: Brent just passed back above $100
: Letsbereal July 03, 2012, 10:52:22 AM
Made the call yesterday: ‘Time to keep an eye on oil prices again.’ When Brent crude was $97.34 and U.S. crude $83.47 a barrel.

Lo and behold today: Brent just passed back above $100 http://www.zerohedge.com/news/us-military-re-surging-persian-gulf-turkey-scrambles-jets-third-day-and-iran-fires-medium-range

Brent crude $100.20 and U.S. crude $87.20 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Brent crude $103.89 and U.S. crude $88.89 a barrel now
: Letsbereal July 17, 2012, 10:47:18 AM
Brent crude $103.89 and U.S. crude $88.89 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Brent crude $105.18 and U.S. crude $89.61 now
: Letsbereal July 18, 2012, 12:01:53 PM
Brent crude $105.18 and U.S. crude $89.61 now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1

Oil futures rally after supply decline
18 July 2012
, by Claudia Assis - San Francisco (Market Watch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-futures-rally-after-supply-decline-2012-07-18

Crude-oil futures shot up Wednesday after a weekly government report showed a decline in supplies.

Crude for August delivery added 61 cents, or 0.7%, to $89.85 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Prices were up a fraction before the report, and had traded lower earlier.

The Energy Information Administration reported oil inventories declined 800,000 barrels in the week ended July 13.

That compares to expectations of a decline of 1.4 million, according to analysts polled by Platts.

The EIA also reported gasoline inventories down 1.8 million barrels, and supplies of distillates up 2.6 million.

The analysts surveyed by Platts had expected gasoline stockpiles up 700,000 barrels, and distillates inventories up 1 million barrels.
: Speculators drive up petrol prices at the pumps - Vid
: Letsbereal July 18, 2012, 03:43:23 PM
Speculators drive up petrol prices at the pumps www.youtube.com/watch?v=vWFDlGKxzuQ

Was the petrol price rigged too?
15 July 2012
, by Rowena Mason, Emma Rowley (The Telegraph)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/energy/fuel/9401934/Libor-scandal-Was-the-petrol-price-rigged-too.html

OPEC sees slower world oil demand growth in 2013
11 July 2012
, by William L. Watts – Frankfurt (Market Watch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/opec-sees-slower-world-oil-demand-growth-in-2013-2012-07-11

Global demand for oil in 2012, 2013 revised lower
10 July 2012
, by Claudia Assis – San Francisco (Market Watch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/global-demand-for-oil-in-2012-2013-revised-lower-2012-07-10
: Oil pushes past $92, set for seventh day of gains
: Letsbereal July 19, 2012, 03:41:20 PM
Oil pushes past $92, set for seventh day of gains - Natural gas swings between narrow gains and losses after update
19 July 2012
, by Claudia Assis and V. Phani Kumar - San Francisco (Market Watch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-reclaims-90-level-set-for-7th-day-of-gains-2012-07-19

Crude-oil futures pushed past $92 a barrel Thursday, well on track to score a seventh day of gains, as traders considered the potential for lower supplies and reacted to Middle East strife.

Crude for August delivery gained $2.98, or 3.3%, to $92.85 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, adding to earlier gains and keeping close to session highs.

Prices ticked higher as U.S. stocks also got a boost and following news that Germany’s parliament had approved the country’s participation in a rescue plan for Spanish banks.

Settlement around these levels would be the highest for crude since May 21 and the first finish above $90 since May 29.

A close in the black would also match the first seven-session winning run seen for crude since February.

Thursday’s rally is “based on broader sentiment rather than any improvement in the demand fundamentals of the crude market,” said Matt Smith, analyst with Summit Energy, in a note to clients.

A government report out Wednesday showed a third consecutive weekly decline in U.S. crude inventories.

Data released by the Energy Information Administration pegged the drop in stockpiles at 800,000 barrels for the week ended July 13, smaller than expected.

Headlines involving Syria and Iran also kept concerns about oil supplies in traders’ focus.

Israeli authorities on Wednesday charged Iran was behind a bombing at a resort in Bulgaria popular among Israelis.

The blasted killed at least seven people and injured others, and prompted Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to say Israel would respond with force.

And in Syria, three members of President Bashar al-Assad’s inner circle were killed in a bombing in Damascus.

Although Syria isn’t a major oil exporter, its proximity to countries that are has been enough to rattle markets.

Support for crude also came the dollar, which turned weaker as the session progressed. The ICE dollar index declined to 82.901 from 82.990 late Wednesday.

In other energy trading, gasoline for August delivery advanced 5 cents, or 1.6%, to $2.93 a gallon.

August natural-gas futures seesawed between small gains and losses, recently down less than 1 cent to $2.97 per million British thermal units.

Prices had turned higher after the government’s latest update on gas in storage.

The EIA reported natural-gas inventories rose 28 billion cubic feet in the week ended July 13.

Market participants expected an increase between 28 billion and 32 billion cubic feet for the week.

Brent crude $107.80 and U.S. crude $92.65 now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: ICE: Speculators reverse bets against higher oil
: Letsbereal July 23, 2012, 11:39:32 PM
ICE: Speculators reverse bets against higher oil
23 July 2012
, by Sarah Kent - London (Market Watch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ice-speculators-reverse-bets-against-higher-oil-2012-07-23

-- Speculators upped net long position in Brent crude last week for first time since early July - ICE

-- CFTC also reported an increase in speculator's net long positions in Nymex last week

-- Oil prices rose 6% last week amid geopolitical tensions and expectations of monetary easing in the U.S.

Speculators in Brent crude upped their bets Brent prices would rise for the first time since the beginning of the month last week, according to the InterContinentalExchange Inc.'s weekly Commitment of Traders report published Monday
.

The move coincided with a week-long rally that saw Brent rise to its highest since late May as geopolitical tensions and hopes of further monetary stimulus in the U.S. helped lift prices, encouraging speculators to up their bets oil would continue to climb.

According to ICE, money managers, including hedge funds, held a net long position of 78,682 contracts in the week ended July 17, up 31%, from 60,004 in the week before and the highest this level has been since late May.

The net long position is the difference between the number of long positions, or bets that prices will rise, and short positions, or bets that prices will fall.

In the U.S., the Commodity Futures Trading Commission reported Friday that speculators in Nymex crude also upped their net long position, though by a much smaller 4%, last week.

This increase in bets on higher prices likely contributed to the 6% rise in oil prices last week, Commerzbank said in a note.

Brent crude $103.40 and U.S. crude $88.14 now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Oil speculators trim bets on Brent price rise
: Letsbereal July 31, 2012, 01:51:43 AM
Oil speculators trim bets on Brent price rise
30 July 2012
, by Konstantin Rozhnov (Market Watch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-speculators-trim-bets-on-brent-price-rise-2012-07-30

--Money managers reduced net long positions by 1.5% in the week ended July 24

--Focus on whether central banks will implement fiscal measures to boost economy

--Global monetary policy easing, Iran embargo to push oil higher in 3Q, analyst says



Brent crude $105.78 and U.S. crude $89.87 now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Money managers lower bets Oil will go higher - Increase bets Gas will go lower
: Letsbereal August 04, 2012, 08:33:44 AM
Money managers lower bets oil will go higher
3 August 2012
, by Nicole Friedman - New York (Market Watch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/money-managers-lower-bets-oil-will-go-higher-2012-08-03

Money managers lowered their net long position in New York Mercantile Exchange crude-oil futures and options in the week ended July 31, according to data released Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.


Traders increase bets natural gas will go lower
3 August 2012
, by David Bird (Market Watch)
http://www.market watch.com/story/traders-increase-bets-natural-gas-will-go-lower-2012-08-03

Large, noncommercial traders raised their net short position in natural-gas futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange by 4.2% during the week ended July 31, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission reported Friday.

Brent crude $108.71 and U.S. crude $91.36 now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: ICE: Net long Brent futures, options positions up
: Letsbereal August 06, 2012, 06:48:16 PM
ICE: Net long Brent futures, options positions up
6 August 2012
, by Jenny Gross - London (Market Watch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ice-net-long-brent-futures-options-positions-up-2012-08-06

Money managers increased their net long position in Brent crude oil futures and options in the week ended July 31, according to the IntercontinentalExchange Inc.'s weekly Commitment of Traders report published Monday.

Money managers, including hedge funds, held a net long position of 86,065 contracts, up 11% from 77,510 in the week before.

Traders in the category upped their long positions by 633 and cut their short positions by 7,922.

The net long position is the difference between the number of long positions, or bets that prices will rise, and short positions, or bets that prices will fall.

Open interest in crude-oil futures rose 18,206 to 1,434,166.

Elsewhere, speculators increased their holdings in gasoil, by 347 contracts to 38,148, the data showed.

ICE publishes the reports each week at 1100 GMT Mondays with data for the previous Tuesday.

The reports contain the same four categories of market participants used by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission: producers, swap dealers, managed money and other reportables.

ICE Futures Europe's COT reports include futures-only and futures-and-options-combined data, as well as open interest concentration among the contracts' largest traders.

Brent crude $109.65 and U.S. crude $91.93 now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: U.S. retail gas prices surge 13.7 cents a gallon
: Letsbereal August 07, 2012, 10:49:15 AM
U.S. retail gas prices surge 13.7 cents a gallon
7 August 2012
, by Dan Strumpf - New York (Market Watch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-retail-gas-prices-surge-137-cents-a-gallon-2012-08-07

--Retail gasoline prices surge 13.7 cents

--Prices at highest since May

--Gasoline market hit by Midwest refinery issues


Brent crude $111.06 and U.S. crude $92.68 now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: EIA increases price forecast for retail gasoline
: Letsbereal August 08, 2012, 04:05:05 PM
EIA increases price forecast for retail gasoline
7 August 2012
, by Claudia Assis - San Francisco (Market Watch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/eia-increases-price-forecast-for-retail-gasoline-2012-08-07

The Energy Information Administration increased Tuesday its price forecast for retail gasoline to $3.53 a gallon on average for the year from $3.49 in the agency's July outlook.

The EIA kept its forecast for U.S. oil production at 6.3 million barrels a day, the highest production level since 1997.

Consumption fell, with demand for gasoline accounting for the bulk of the drop.

In the last two quarters of the year, however, the EIA said it expects a turnaround for energy consumption.

Brent crude $111.97 and U.S. crude $93.36 now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: EIA cuts U.S. 2012 oil use outlook to 18.8 mln B/D
: Letsbereal August 08, 2012, 04:09:10 PM
EIA cuts U.S. 2012 oil use outlook to 18.8 mln B/D
7 August 2012
, by Jerry A. DiColo - New York (Market Watch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/eia-cuts-us-2012-oil-use-outlook-to-188-mln-bd-2012-08-07

U.S. oil demand is expected to drop to 18.66 million barrels a day this year, the lowest level since 1997, according to government data released Tuesday.

The drop, projected by the U.S. Energy Information Administration in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook,

is an additional 20,000 barrels a day lower than the decline forecast a month ago.

Demand is expected to rise 0.2% to 18.72 million barrels a day in 2013.

Next year's forecast is down 30,000 barrels a day from the July report.

The EIA slashed its estimate for third-quarter demand by 170,000 barrels a day, or 0.9%, to 18.8 million barrels a day.

The fourth-quarter demand forecast fell to 18.8 million barrels a day from 18.82 million barrels a day.
: California gasoline prices likely to go back to $4
: Letsbereal August 08, 2012, 04:11:28 PM
California gasoline prices likely to go back to $4
7 August 2012
, by Claudia Assis - San Francisco (Market Watch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/california-gasoline-prices-likely-to-go-back-to-4-2012-08-07

Wholesale gasoline prices in California have jumped more than 30 cents in some areas of the state within hours of a late Monday fire in a Richmond refinery, and it's only a matter of time till consumers pay more at the pump.

Wholesale prices in the San Francisco Bay Area have increased by 31 cents and by about 25 cents in Southern California in the last day, from about $2.93 on average, said on Tuesday Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst with Oil Price Information Service.

The incident has potential to send retail gasoline prices in California up as much as 50 cents, and increases the likelihood California drivers will be paying more than $4 a gallon in the next week or so,

Kloza said. It won't last forever -- gasoline exports and diminished demand in September are likely to bring prices down.
: Oil hits 3-month high above $114 on supply concern
: Letsbereal August 13, 2012, 08:28:37 AM
Oil hits 3-month high above $114 on supply concern
13 August 2012
, by Alex Lawler (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/13/us-markets-oil-idUSBRE83H17O20120813

Oil rose above $114 per barrel on Monday to the highest in more than three months as concern about supplies and hopes that governments will roll out more stimulus measures trumped signs of weakening fuel demand.

Supply of the North Sea crudes underpinning the Brent crude contract is set to hit a record low.

Iranian output has been curbed by sanctions while an intensification of debate in Israel on whether to go to war with Iran over its nuclear work added to concern about disruption in Middle East supply.

Brent crude hit $114.46 a barrel, the highest since May 4, and by 0937 GMT was up $1.30 at $114.25. U.S. oil rose 60 cents to $93.47.

"The likelihood of some sort of intervention to stimulate economies is supporting the market," said Christopher Bellew, an oil broker at Jefferies Bache in London.

"Also, the North Sea, Iran and the Middle East are still a factor."

The supply concerns countered forecasts of weakening oil demand which have weighed on prices.

The International Energy Agency on Friday cut its 2013 oil demand forecast by 400,000 barrels per day, citing a slowdown in global economic activity.

"We are seeing prices rise despite weak growth outlook numbers on Friday," said Ben Le Brun, a Sydney-based market analyst at OptionsXpress.

"The Israeli comments, what you see in Israeli media, is a concern. A major concern."

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday that most threats to Israel's security were "dwarfed" by the prospect of Iran obtaining nuclear weapons, which local media reports said Tehran had stepped up its efforts to achieve.

Brent is being supported in particular by a drop in output, sending the price of immediate supplies to a widening premium to oil for delivery later, a structure known as backwardation.

Output of the four North Sea crudes that underpin Brent will sink to a record low in September due to oilfield maintenance and natural decline.

Output from 11 North Sea production streams is set to fall by 17%.

On Monday, the premium at which the nearby Brent contract, currently September, trades against the second month jumped to $2.02, the highest since October 2011.

"The backwardation in Brent is very big. I think that's because of the North Sea," Bellew said.

Supply concerns and the prospect of further government stimulus including a further round of quantitative easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to support a continued premium for prompt supplies, say analysts.

"Exacerbated by the recent structural supply shortage in the North Sea*, Iran and other countries, we could see a period of super-backwardation, analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch said in a report.


"We also believe that further unconventional monetary easing will likely keep prices supported."

* 21 Feb. 2012 Coming soon: Brent trade with no Brent crude http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/02/21/uk-shell-oil-brent-idUKTRE81K16T20120221

Recap:

10 August 2012 Managers more optimistic on oil futures - Money managers added to bets oil futures will go higher http://www.marketwatch.com/story/managers-more-optimistic-on-oil-futures-2012-08-10

09 August 2012 OPEC cuts production, warns of risks to oil demand http://www.marketwatch.com/story/opec-cuts-production-warns-of-risks-to-oil-demand-2012-08-09

09 August 2012 Margin Hiker-In-Chief Fires First Warning Shot As CME Raises Crude Oil Margins http://www.zerohedge.com/news/margin-hiker-chief-fires-first-warning-shoot-cme-raises-crude-oil-margins

07 August 2012 Oil supplies down 5.4 million barrels: trade group http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-supplies-down-54-million-barrels-trade-group-2012-08-07

07 August 2012 California gasoline prices likely to go back to $4 http://www.marketwatch.com/story/california-gasoline-prices-likely-to-go-back-to-4-2012-08-07

07 August 2012 EIA cuts U.S. 2012 oil use outlook to 18.8 mln B/D http://www.marketwatch.com/story/eia-cuts-us-2012-oil-use-outlook-to-188-mln-bd-2012-08-07

07 August 2012 EIA increases forecasts for 2012 oil prices http://www.marketwatch.com/story/eia-increases-forecasts-for-2012-oil-prices-2012-08-07-134855215

06 August 2012 ICE: Net long Brent futures, options positions up http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ice-net-long-brent-futures-options-positions-up-2012-08-06

Brent crude $114.47 and U.S. crude $93.68 now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Re: Brent crude $114.47 and U.S. crude $93.68 now
: bento August 13, 2012, 08:49:02 AM
WOW, you learn something every day, I never knew that concern was synonymous with scam. It is not a good time to be in the scam market(unless you are in on it).
: Speculators raise bets on rising crude prices
: Letsbereal August 13, 2012, 04:13:02 PM
Speculators raise bets on rising crude prices
13 August 2012
, by Konstantin Rozhnov - London (Market Watch)
http://www.market watch.com/story/speculators-raise-bets-on-rising-crude-prices-2012-08-13

--Bets on higher Brent, Nymex crude prices increase in week ended Aug. 7

--Expectations of monetary easing, supply disruption fears attract speculators' money into oil

--Brent net long position likely to continue rising, analyst says


Brent crude $113.51 and U.S. crude $92.69 now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Oil at three-month high after supply drop
: Letsbereal August 16, 2012, 05:36:56 AM
Oil at three-month high after supply drop - EIA data also sends gasoline, heating oil to multi-month highs
15 August 2012
, by Claudia Assis and Michael Kitchen - San Francisco (Market Watch)
http://www.market watch.com/story/oil-futures-fall-after-surprise-inventory-gain-2012-08-15

Excerpt:

Crude-oil futures on Wednesday settled at their highest in three months after the Department of Energy’s weekly report showed a larger-than-expected drop in crude supplies.

Oil had edged lower earlier in the wake of a trade group’s report that showed the opposite late Tuesday — an unexpected rise in crude inventories.

A mixed day for macroeconomic reports and a stronger dollar also took their toll on oil futures, but they reversed course after the official word on supplies.

Brent crude $114.51 and U.S. crude $94.31 now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Brent crude $113.76 and U.S. crude $96.22 now
: Letsbereal August 18, 2012, 05:11:29 AM
Brent crude $113.76 and U.S. crude $96.22 now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: What Recovery? Petroleum Deliveries Lowest Since September 2008
: Letsbereal August 18, 2012, 11:42:26 AM
What Recovery? Petroleum Deliveries Lowest Since September 2008; Weakest July Demand Since 1995
17 August 2012
, by Tyler Durden (zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/what-recovery-petroleum-deliveries-lowest-september-2008-weakest-july-demand-1995
: Oil Up Again - Brent crude $115.04 and U.S. crude $97.45 now
: Letsbereal August 22, 2012, 05:40:40 PM
Spot The Similarity – A problem with increased difficulty*: World Economy – Oil Up Again – Spain – Greece – The Fourth Reich – Apple & Facebook – Fraud : Youri Carma
22 August 2012
, by Youri Carma (Max Keiser)
http://maxkeiser.com/2012/08/22/spot-the-similarity-a-problem-increased-difficulty-world-economy-spain-greece-the-fourth-reich-apple-facebook-fraud-youri-carma/

Brent crude $115.04 and U.S. crude $97.45 now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Brent crude $109.53 and U.S. crude $90.11 now
: Letsbereal December 31, 2012, 07:22:24 AM
OPEC sees $1 trillion 2012 net oil revenue: report
30 December 2012
, (Market Watch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/opec-sees-1-trillion-2012-net-oil-revenue-report-2012-12-30

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will reap more than $1 trillion in net oil revenue for 2012, the Financial Times reports Sunday.

The report said Brent oil prices would average about $111.50 for the year, higher than the previous record of $110.90 set in 2011.


Brent crude $109.53 and U.S. crude $90.11 now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Oil above $91, but 2012 is steeped in red
: Letsbereal December 31, 2012, 02:33:03 PM
Oil above $91, but 2012 is steeped in red
31 December 2012
, by Carla Mozee and Michael Kitchen - Los Angeles (Market Watch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-ticks-higher-as-fiscal-cliff-approaches-2012-12-31

Crude-oil futures gained Monday, but the market will close with its first loss in four years and faces some uncertainty in early 2013 as the U.S. economy may be hit by automatic tax increases and spending cuts unless lawmakers reach a budget deal.


Brent crude $111.25 and U.S. crude $91.71 now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Brent crude $111.43 and U.S. crude $91.92 a barrel now
: Letsbereal January 01, 2013, 08:34:45 PM
Brent crude $111.43 and U.S. crude $91.92 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1

Time to keep an eye on oil prices again.
: Brent crude $112.34 and U.S. crude $93.30 a barrel now
: Letsbereal January 02, 2013, 10:00:42 AM
Brent crude $112.34 and U.S. crude $93.30 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Oil futures end above $93, gain for the week
: Letsbereal January 05, 2013, 06:05:07 AM
Oil futures end above $93, gain for the week
4 January 2013
, by Myra P. Saefong and V. Phani Kumar - San Francisco (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-futures-weighed-by-strong-us-dollar-2013-01-04


Brent crude $111.40 and U.S. crude $93.19 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Oil stays above $93
: Letsbereal January 08, 2013, 08:15:17 AM
Oil stays above $93, awaits supply, demand cues
7 January 2013
, by Myra P. Saefong and Sara Sjolin - San Francisco (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-futures-weighed-by-strengthened-dollar-2013-01-07

Excerpt:

Oil futures finished with a small gain Monday, holding their ground above $93 a barrel, with the market considering a potential rebound in U.S. crude supplies and awaiting oil-demand cues as the corporate-earnings season kicks off this week.

Crude oil for February delivery added 10 cents, or 0.1%, to settle at $93.19 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

That was the highest settlement price for the February contract since mid-October. Prices for front-month crude haven’t settled at a level that high since September, according to FactSet data.


Brent crude $112.25 and U.S. crude $93.57 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Oil Rises to Three-Month High
: Letsbereal January 10, 2013, 12:30:18 PM
Oil Rises to Three-Month High as China Exports Accelerate
10 January 2013
, by Moming Zhou (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-10/oil-rises-to-three-month-high-as-china-exports-accelerate.html

Excerpt:

Oil rose to the highest level in three months as exports from China accelerated in December and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said “a gradual recovery should start” in the region this year.

Prices advanced as much as 1.7 percent after China’s customs agency said overseas sales in the world’s second-largest fuel-consuming country jumped 14.1 percent last month from a year earlier. Oil also gained as the euro surged against the dollar on Draghi’s remarks.

“We are breaking out on the back of the incredibly strong export data from China that clearly argue for an enhanced demand picture for 2013,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC, a New York-based hedge fund that focuses on energy.

“The comments by Draghi about the economy are positive. The euro is mostly definitely helping oil.”

Crude oil for February delivery gained 86 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $93.96 a barrel at 11:17 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange after climbing to $94.70,

the highest intraday level since Sept. 19.

Trading volume was 84% more than the 100-day average.

Brent oil for February settlement increased 44 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $112.20 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

Volume was 75% above the 100-day average. Brent’s premium to New York futures narrowed to $18.24 a barrel from $18.66 yesterday.


Brent crude $112.21 and U.S. crude $93.97 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Oil climbs back above $94/barrel
: Letsbereal January 14, 2013, 08:42:56 AM
Oil climbs back above $94/barrel
14 January 2013
, by V. Phani Kumar - Hong Kong (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-climbs-back-above-94barrel-2013-01-14

Crude-oil futures climbed past $94 a barrel in electronic trading Monday, underpinned by the dollar’s weakness and mild gains for U.S. equity futures.

Futures on light sweet crude for delivery in February climbed 66 cents, or 0.7%, to $94.22 a barrel by mid-afternoon in Hong Kong.

They took back more than the 26-cent loss suffered in a regular New York Mercantile Exchange session Friday.

The ICE dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance against a basket of six major global currencies, fell to 79.412 from 79.566 in North America late on Friday,

providing support to the commodities complex.

Meanwhile, Dow Jones Industrial Average  futures climbed 7 points, or 0.1%, to 13,440, while S&P 500 futures gained 0.1% to 1,469.10.

The advance also came as mainland Chinese stocks soared on Monday, led by strong gains for financial stocks.

Read Asia Markets http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-stocks-rise-as-asia-trades-mixed-2013-01-13

February heating-oil futures rose 0.4% to $3.02 a gallon and natural-gas futures for delivery in the same month added 1.1% to $3.36 per million British thermal units.

The February contract for gasoline inched 0.1% higher to $2.74 per gallon.
 

Brent crude $111.24 and U.S. crude $93.94 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Oil Trades Near Highest in Four Months
: Letsbereal January 15, 2013, 11:02:07 AM
Oil Trades Near Highest in Four Months on Colder Weather
15 January 2013
, by Grant Smith (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-15/oil-trades-near-four-month-high-on-u-s-economy-colder-weather.html

Excerpt:

Oil traded near the highest level in almost four months in New York before reports that may show the economy recovering in the U.S. and as lower temperatures buoy demand for heating fuels.

West Texas Intermediate was little changed after climbing 0.6% yesterday.

The U.S. East Coast and Midwest will be 5 degrees Fahrenheit (2.8 Celsius) below normal from Jan. 19 to Jan. 23, according to Commodity Weather Group LLC in Bethesda, Maryland.

“Colder weather is helping the energy complex,” said Andrey Kryuchenkov, an analyst at VTB Capital in London, who predicts WTI may remain capped at about $95.60 a barrel.

The global oil market looks evenly balanced.”

Brent for February settlement was at $111.58 a barrel, down 30 cents, on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

Also see:

L.A. gasoline prices up on supply http://forum.prisonplanet.com/index.php?topic=240677.0

OPEC oil output falls in December - Global supply has been running above demand for many months http://forum.prisonplanet.com/index.php?topic=240678.0

French power group GDF Suez mulls shutting down more plants due to falling demand and lower profitability - Drop in imported U.S. coal prices http://forum.prisonplanet.com/index.php?topic=240676.0

Lufthansa foresees lower fuel expenses in 2013 http://forum.prisonplanet.com/index.php?topic=240679.0

Brent crude $111.45 and U.S. crude $93.94 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Oil Rises as U.S. Inventories 'Unexpectedly' Decrease
: Letsbereal January 16, 2013, 03:26:51 PM
Oil Rises as U.S. Inventories Unexpectedly Decrease
16 January 2013
, by Moming Zhou (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-16/oil-fluctuates-as-supply-gains-while-growth-forecast-cut.html

Excerpt:

Oil rose in New York on an unexpected drop in U.S. inventories as imports declined for the fourth time in five weeks and petroleum consumption increased.

Prices gained as much as 1.2% after the Energy Information Administration, the Energy Department’s statistical arm, said stockpiles fell 951,000 barrels last week.

They were expected to climb 2.2 million barrels, according to the median of 11 analyst estimates in a Bloomberg survey.

Consumption rebounded from the lowest level since March.

Brent crude $109.53 and U.S. crude $90.11 - 31 Dec. 2012
Brent crude $111.43 and U.S. crude $91.92 - 01 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $112.34 and U.S. crude $93.30 - 02 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $112.25 and U.S. crude $93.57 - 08 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $112.21 and U.S. crude $93.97 - 10 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $111.45 and U.S. crude $93.94 - 15 Jan. 2013

Brent crude $110.60 and U.S. crude $94.16 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Brent crude $110.92 and U.S. crude $95.18 a barrel now
: Letsbereal January 17, 2013, 06:42:08 PM
Brent crude $110.92 and U.S. crude $95.18 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Annual Gasoline Usage in Millions of Barrels
: Letsbereal January 18, 2013, 07:54:06 AM
Annual Gasoline Usage in Millions of Barrels
18 Janauary 2013
, by Mike Shedlock (MISH'S Global Economic Trend Analysis)
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.nl/2013/01/annual-gasoline-usage-in-millions-of.html

Inquiring minds are once again taking a look at annual gasoline sales in the United States.

Reader Tim Wallace provides the following chart for discussion.

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ao_PY2c9qjQ/UPj1q8khsXI/AAAAAAAAUKQ/4uVDJAZxB-4/s400/Wallace%2Bgasoline%2BUsage%2B-%2B%2B2013-01%2BAnnual.png) (http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ao_PY2c9qjQ/UPj1q8khsXI/AAAAAAAAUKQ/4uVDJAZxB-4/s1600/Wallace%2Bgasoline%2BUsage%2B-%2B%2B2013-01%2BAnnual.png)

click on chart for sharper image

Data is from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) Weekly Petroleum Report
http://www.eia.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/weekly_petroleum_status_report/wpsr.html

Tim writes ...

Hello Mish

Data for the chart is taken from the weekly reports I like to use, and its trend is accurate.

The current downturn happened back in 2007 in gasoline, and it is one of the things I saw that got me out of the market.

I cannot see an improved economy from these numbers, and the numbers also cannot be explained by "higher mileage" vehicles - the impact would be some,

but not as major as we see here, with usage numbers now back to 2001 levels.

The drops in the past two years can only be explained by less driving, which also would mean less wear and tear on the roads and therefore less spending.

Interestingly, I have seen a lot of repaving of roads that are perfectly serviceable. So why pave them?

And talking about paying for things that you use ... You and I both know that the highways North of the Mason-Dixon line eat up much more tax dollars as the weather in winter tears them apart.

Therefore y'all up there should have a much higher fee than those in the South here who use much less of the federal spending pie!

Just sayin'!

Tim


Hi Tim. Thanks for reminding those of us in the great state of Illinois that we should be paying even more for our services!

I am sure governor Pat Quinn would be more than happy to oblige overpaid unions by hiking our taxes more.

Kidding aside, Tim was referring to my post ObamaMiles Tax Coming Soon; Transportation "Trust Fund" Broke; Scheme to Boost Taxes 250%; Mindless Possibilities
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2013/01/obamamiles-coming-soon-transportation.html

Readers may also wish to consider European Car Demand Near 20-Year Low; Peugeot Workers Shut Down French Plant; GM Loses Global Car Sales Lead to Toyota Once Again
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2013/01/european-car-demand-near-20-year-low.html


Brent crude $110.66 and U.S. crude $95.23 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Saudi Arabia, Iraq Cut Oil Exports in November
: Letsbereal January 21, 2013, 02:50:30 PM
Saudi Arabia, Iraq Cut Oil Exports in November, JODI Show
20 January 2013
, by Wael Mahdi (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-20/saudi-arabia-iraq-cut-oil-exports-in-november-jodi-show.html

Saudi Arabia exported 1.7%t less crude in November than in the previous month, while Iraq and five other OPEC producers also curbed shipments, according to the Joint Organizations Data Initiative.

The kingdom, the largest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, shipped 7.15 million barrels a day in November as it reduced monthly output by 2.4% to 9.49 million barrels a day.

Iraq, with the second-biggest producer in OPEC, trimmed its exports by 3.3% to 2.62 million barrels a day even as it pumped 1.7% more oil, data posted today on the initiative’s website showed.

Angola cut crude exports by 5.6%, the United Arab Emirates pared shipments by 3.1%, and Qatar, Ecuador and Venezuela also reduced exports, the data showed.

Algeria’s shipments surged 42% in November to 725,000 barrels a day, while its production slipped 2.7%, according to the initiative known as JODI.

OPEC, which supplies about 40% of the world’s crude, said in a monthly report on Jan. 16 that its total output in December dropped by 465,000 barrels a day to 30.4 million, the lowest level since October 2011.

Saudi Arabia led the decrease in December, the 12-member group said, citing secondary sources.

OPEC’s figure for production last month is 800,000 barrels a day more than what the group estimates it will need to supply to consumers in 2013.

Burning Crude

JODI, supervised by the Riyadh-based International Energy Forum, uses statistics supplied by national governments to compile data on production, imports and exports for oil- producing and consuming nations.

The data include crude and condensates and exclude natural gas liquids.

Saudi Arabia used less crude as fuel in power plants in November, burning 367,000 barrels a day, the lowest level since last March and a 23% reduction from a year ago, according to JODI.

The country also reduced its consumption of diesel and fuel oil in November, two other fuels used in power stations, the data showed.

Refineries in the kingdom processed 1.78 million barrels a day of crude that month, 53,000 barrels a day more on average than in October, according to the initiative.

Kuwait, Iran, Nigeria, and Libya didn’t submit data for the month.


Brent crude $109.53 and U.S. crude $90.11 – 31 Dec. 2012
Brent crude $111.43 and U.S. crude $91.92 – 01 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $112.34 and U.S. crude $93.30 – 02 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $112.25 and U.S. crude $93.57 – 08 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $112.21 and U.S. crude $93.97 – 10 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $111.45 and U.S. crude $93.94 – 15 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $110.60 and U.S. crude $94.16 – 16 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $110.92 and U.S. crude $95.18 – 17 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $110.66 and U.S. crude $95.23 – 18 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $111.82 and U.S. crude $95.47 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1

They’re wringing our neck!
: Oil ends above $96 - February crude contract expires above $96
: Letsbereal January 23, 2013, 09:30:25 AM
Oil ends above $96 - February crude contract expires above $96 a barrel http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-futures-waver-near-95-a-barrel-2013-01-22

Delta Air Lines net drops on high fuel costs http://www.marketwatch.com/story/delta-air-lines-net-drops-on-high-fuel-costs-2013-01-22

Nebraska governor approves Keystone XL state route http://www.marketwatch.com/story/nebraska-governor-approves-keystone-xl-state-route-2013-01-22

Shell opens its largest grease plant in China http://www.marketwatch.com/story/shell-opens-its-largest-grease-plant-in-china-2013-01-22

Traders Plan Gasoline, Diesel Freight Swaps as U.S. Drives Rally http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-23/traders-plan-gasoline-diesel-freight-swaps-as-u-s-drives-rally.html

Brent crude $109.53 and U.S. crude $90.11 – 31 Dec. 2012
Brent crude $111.43 and U.S. crude $91.92 – 01 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $112.34 and U.S. crude $93.30 – 02 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $112.25 and U.S. crude $93.57 – 08 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $112.21 and U.S. crude $93.97 – 10 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $111.45 and U.S. crude $93.94 – 15 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $110.60 and U.S. crude $94.16 – 16 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $110.92 and U.S. crude $95.18 – 17 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $110.66 and U.S. crude $95.23 – 18 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $111.82 and U.S. crude $95.47 – 21 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $112.23 and U.S. crude $96.30 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: OPEC to Cut Shipments as Asian Demand Ebbs, Oil Movements Says
: Letsbereal January 25, 2013, 06:47:41 AM
OPEC to Cut Shipments as Asian Demand Ebbs, Oil Movements Says
24 January 2013
, by Grant Smith (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-24/opec-to-cut-shipments-as-asian-demand-ebbs-oil-movements-says.html

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will reduce shipments through to early February as late winter demand fails to materialize in Asia, according to tanker tracker Oil Movements.

The group that supplies about 40% of the world’s oil will export 23.7 million barrels a day in the four weeks to Feb. 9, down 150,000 barrels, or 0.6%, from the previous period, the researcher said today in an e-mailed report.

Shipments normally climb at this time of the year with the last phase in winter demand in the northern hemisphere, according to the consultant. The figures exclude Angola and Ecuador.

“The second winter peak isn’t happening,” Roy Mason, the company’s founder, said by phone from Halifax, England.

“The tanker market is moribund. You wouldn’t normally expect it to be soaring, but it should be going up not down as it’s still winter in the Far East.”

Japan’s oil purchases dropped 0.8% in December from a year earlier to 19.7 million kiloliters, according to preliminary data from the Ministry of Finance.

OPEC production dropped to the lowest level in 14 months in December because of a 4% supply cut by Saudi Arabia, data from the group’s monthly report on Jan. 16 showed.

Brent traded today at about $113 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London.

Middle East shipments will decrease 0.7% to 17.4 million barrels a day in the period, compared with 17.52 million in the four weeks to Jan. 12, according to Oil Movements.

That figure includes non-OPEC members Oman and Yemen.

Crude on board tankers will average 467.6 million barrels, down 1.5% on the previous period, the data show.

Oil Movements calculates the volumes by tallying tanker bookings. Its figures exclude crude held on vessels for storage.

OPEC comprises Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela.

The organization is next scheduled to meet in May.


Brent crude $111.43 and U.S. crude $91.92 – 01 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $112.34 and U.S. crude $93.30 – 02 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $112.25 and U.S. crude $93.57 – 08 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $112.21 and U.S. crude $93.97 – 10 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $111.45 and U.S. crude $93.94 – 15 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $110.60 and U.S. crude $94.16 – 16 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $110.92 and U.S. crude $95.18 – 17 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $110.66 and U.S. crude $95.23 – 18 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $111.82 and U.S. crude $95.47 – 21 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $112.23 and U.S. crude $96.30 – 23 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $113.66 and U.S. crude $96.33 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1


OIL – WHAT’S HAPPENING HERE?

Despite a deepening crises and a decline of oil demand OIL PRICES GO UP!!!

Somebodies doing somtin slick, yeah they are! ‘sGot me wondering, which is which?

Dig a dig ain’t that a bitch! http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=_UuiIIMUJTk#t=977s

Perhaps ...


Citi analyst Tom Fitzpatrick: Oil Set To Super-Spike 63%, Crushing Global Stock Markets
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/1/25_Oil_Set_To_Super-Spike_63%2C_Crushing_Global_Stock_Markets.html
: Dan Norcini explains why oil is high while fundamentals lack
: Letsbereal January 26, 2013, 04:57:40 PM
Dan Norcini explains on the weekly KWN’s Metals Wrap (after Bill Haynes) why oil is high while fundamentals lack

‘The recovery bandwagon’ and loads of funny money
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2013/1/26_KWN_Weekly_Metals_Wrap.html

Like Faber Said: “Everything can go higher if you print money”
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/marc-faber-on-investment-strategy-markets-L6NkYG4bQH2A1G63CmNwiQ.html
: Oil climbs back above $96
: Letsbereal January 28, 2013, 09:22:32 PM
Oil climbs back above $96 on Mideast tensions - Traders weigh demand outlook after mixed data; natural gas sinks
28 January 2013
, by Myra P. Saefong and Sara Sjolin - San Francisco (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-wobbles-around-9590-stronger-dollar-weighs-2013-01-28

Crude-oil futures climbed Monday to settle above $96 a barrel as unrest in the Middle East fed supply concerns, and as traders weighed the outlook for energy demand against mixed U.S. economic data.

Brent crude $109.53 and U.S. crude $90.11 - 31 Dec. 2012
Brent crude $111.43 and U.S. crude $91.92 – 01 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $112.34 and U.S. crude $93.30 – 02 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $112.25 and U.S. crude $93.57 – 08 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $112.21 and U.S. crude $93.97 – 10 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $111.45 and U.S. crude $93.94 – 15 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $110.60 and U.S. crude $94.16 – 16 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $110.92 and U.S. crude $95.18 – 17 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $110.66 and U.S. crude $95.23 – 18 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $111.82 and U.S. crude $95.47 – 21 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $112.23 and U.S. crude $96.30 – 23 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $113.66 and U.S. crude $96.33 - 25 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $113.57 and U.S. crude $96.65 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1

U.S. Crude has gone up a whopping $6.50 a barrel since 31 December 2012 when U.S, crude was $90.11.
: BP's Libya drilling on hold: report- Doubts grow with Algerian terrorist attack
: Letsbereal January 28, 2013, 09:58:36 PM
BP's Libya drilling on hold: report
27 January 2013
, (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bps-libya-drilling-on-hold-report-2013-01-27-124854543

Plans for BP to begin drilling for oil and gas in Libya are in serious doubt in the aftermath of the terrorist attack on its gas production plant in neighboring Algeria, the Sunday Telegraph reports.

The newspaper said a BP spokesman told it: "We were due to drill in the second half of this year but we are now reviewing that as a result of the situations in Algeria and Benghazi."

BP signed a $900 million exploration and production agreement with Libya's National Oil Corp. in 2007 but suspended the contract in February 2011 because of the civil war that eventually led to the overthrow of Colonel Muammer Gaddafi, the Sunday Telegraph said.
: Oil ends above $97
: Letsbereal January 29, 2013, 05:45:04 PM
Oil ends above $97 on Mideast unrest, supply fears
29 January 2013
, by Myra P. Saefong and Sara Sjolin - San Francisco (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-futures-inch-higher-on-supply-concerns-2013-01-29

Oil futures topped $97 a barrel on Tuesday, settling at their highest since September, as unrest in the Middle East and a refinery closure on the U.S. East Coast stoked supply concerns ahead of the latest updates on the nation’s petroleum supplies.
 

Brent crude $109.53 and U.S. crude $90.11 - 31 Dec. 2012
Brent crude $111.43 and U.S. crude $91.92 – 01 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $112.34 and U.S. crude $93.30 – 02 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $112.25 and U.S. crude $93.57 – 08 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $112.21 and U.S. crude $93.97 – 10 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $111.45 and U.S. crude $93.94 – 15 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $110.60 and U.S. crude $94.16 – 16 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $110.92 and U.S. crude $95.18 – 17 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $110.66 and U.S. crude $95.23 – 18 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $111.82 and U.S. crude $95.47 – 21 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $112.23 and U.S. crude $96.30 – 23 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $113.66 and U.S. crude $96.33 - 25 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $113.57 and U.S. crude $96.65 - 28 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $114.11 and U.S. crude $97.32 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1

U.S. Crude has gone up a whopping $7.21 a barrel since 31 December 2012 when U.S. crude was $90.11.
: Despite larger-than-expected crude inventories oil still went up today
: Letsbereal January 30, 2013, 07:24:26 AM
U.S. oil supplies up over 4 million barrels: API
29 January 2013
, by Myra P. Saefong - San Francisco (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-oil-supplies-up-over-4-million-barrels-api-2013-01-29

Crude-oil supplies rose more than expected for the week ended Jan. 25, and gasoline supplies unexpectedly climbed, according to data from the American Petroleum Institute issued late Tuesday.
 
Oil recovers from inventory-report weakness
30 January 2013
, by Michael Kitchen - Los Angeles (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-recovers-from-inventory-report-weakness-2013-01-30

Benchmark U.S. crude-oil futures recovered from early Wednesday losses to sit flat in electronic trade, despite data showing larger-than-expected crude inventories.


Brent crude $109.53 and U.S. crude $90.11 - 31 Dec. 2012
Brent crude $111.43 and U.S. crude $91.92 – 01 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $112.34 and U.S. crude $93.30 – 02 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $112.25 and U.S. crude $93.57 – 08 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $112.21 and U.S. crude $93.97 – 10 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $111.45 and U.S. crude $93.94 – 15 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $110.60 and U.S. crude $94.16 – 16 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $110.92 and U.S. crude $95.18 – 17 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $110.66 and U.S. crude $95.23 – 18 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $111.82 and U.S. crude $95.47 – 21 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $112.23 and U.S. crude $96.30 – 23 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $113.66 and U.S. crude $96.33 - 25 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $113.57 and U.S. crude $96.65 - 28 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $114.11 and U.S. crude $97.32 - 29 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $115.10 and U.S. crude $98.16 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1

Despite larger-than-expected crude inventories oil still went up today.

U.S. Crude has gone up a whopping $8.00 a barrel since 31 December 2012 when U.S. crude was $90.11.



Crude supplies up nearly 6 million barrels: EIA http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crude-supplies-up-nearly-6-million-barrels-eia-2013-01-30

E.ON cuts outlook on tough European energy market http://www.marketwatch.com/story/eon-cuts-outlook-on-tough-european-energy-market-2013-01-30-7485934

Brazil’s Petrobras to raise gas and diesel prices http://www.marketwatch.com/story/petrobras-to-raise-gas-and-diesel-prices-2013-01-29
: In This Day In History, Gas Prices Have Never Been Higher
: Letsbereal February 02, 2013, 06:42:57 AM
In This Day In History, Gas Prices Have Never Been Higher
1 February 2013
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-01/day-history-gas-prices-have-never-been-higher

Between Hess' plant closing and scheduled maintenance, the squeeze appears to be on the refining space and wholesale gasoline prices are smashing higher.

Along with flares in geopolitical risk (Ankara today and Israel/Syria earlier in the week) driving underlying crude prices, 

Gas prices (at the pump) are surging - to record highs for the first week of February as per AAA, hitting an all time high of $3.465 for this day and just surpassing last year's price of $3.455;

and based on where wholesale prices are (given the lag), we could be seeing $4.00 gas at the pump in the next few weeks.

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2013/01/20130201_Gas3_0.jpg) (http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2013/01/20130201_Gas3.jpg)

as Wholesale Gasoline prices rise at their fastest in almost two years...

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2013/01/20130201_Gas2.jpg)

and with Crude prices rising and wholesale gasoline being squeezed, could retail prices push back above $4.00 again?

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2013/01/20130201_Gas.jpg)

Charts: Bloomberg

Brent crude $109.53 and U.S. crude $90.11 - 31 Dec. 2012
Brent crude $111.43 and U.S. crude $91.92 – 01 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $112.34 and U.S. crude $93.30 – 02 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $112.25 and U.S. crude $93.57 – 08 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $112.21 and U.S. crude $93.97 – 10 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $111.45 and U.S. crude $93.94 – 15 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $110.60 and U.S. crude $94.16 – 16 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $110.92 and U.S. crude $95.18 – 17 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $110.66 and U.S. crude $95.23 – 18 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $111.82 and U.S. crude $95.47 – 21 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $112.23 and U.S. crude $96.30 – 23 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $113.66 and U.S. crude $96.33 - 25 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $113.57 and U.S. crude $96.65 - 28 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $114.11 and U.S. crude $97.32 - 29 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $115.10 and U.S. crude $98.16 - 30 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $116.65 and U.S. crude $97.61 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Hedge Funds Racing Oil Refiners to $100 a Barrel: Energy Markets
: Letsbereal February 04, 2013, 01:45:36 PM
Hedge Funds Racing Oil Refiners to $100 a Barrel: Energy Markets
4 February 2013
, by Asjylyn Loder (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-04/hedge-funds-racing-oil-refiners-to-100-a-barrel-energy-markets.html

Excerpt:

Hedge funds and refiners vied to buy oil futures last month, pushing crude to the highest level since September, as the U.S. added jobs and expanded manufacturing while the government said fuel demand will rebound this year.

Money managers increased net-long positions, or wagers on rising U.S. prices, to a nine-month high of 218,604 in the week ended Jan. 29,

according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Feb. 1 Commitments of Traders report.

It was their seventh week of increasing bullish positions, the longest run of gains in records dating back to June 2006.

Oil climbed for an eighth week, the longest stretch of weekly advances since 2004, on signs that economic growth is accelerating.

Bullish wagers held by refiners and producers advanced for a fifth week to the most since at least June 2006.

The Energy Information Administration said that petroleum consumption will rise in 2013 for the first time in three years.

It looks like we’re headed for $100, if not higher, which is getting the attention of both investors and commercial market participants,”

John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC, a New York-based energy hedge fund, said by phone Feb. 1, referring to U.S. crude.

“There’s been a lot of positive economic news, supply jitters and a cutback in OPEC production.”

West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, advanced $1.33 a barrel, or 1.4%, to $97.57 on the New York Mercantile Exchange in the week covered by the report.

WTI fell 1.2% to $96.59 a barrel as of 10:19 a.m. in New York.


Brent crude $109.53 and U.S. crude $90.11 - 31 Dec. 2012
Brent crude $111.43 and U.S. crude $91.92 – 01 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $112.34 and U.S. crude $93.30 – 02 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $112.25 and U.S. crude $93.57 – 08 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $112.21 and U.S. crude $93.97 – 10 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $111.45 and U.S. crude $93.94 – 15 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $110.60 and U.S. crude $94.16 – 16 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $110.92 and U.S. crude $95.18 – 17 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $110.66 and U.S. crude $95.23 – 18 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $111.82 and U.S. crude $95.47 – 21 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $112.23 and U.S. crude $96.30 – 23 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $113.66 and U.S. crude $96.33 - 25 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $113.57 and U.S. crude $96.65 - 28 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $114.11 and U.S. crude $97.32 - 29 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $115.10 and U.S. crude $98.16 - 30 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $116.65 and U.S. crude $97.61 - 02 Feb. 2013
Brent crude $115.64 and U.S. crude $96.27 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Brent-WTI Surges To 2-Month Highs While US Crude Imports Plunge To 1997 Levels
: Letsbereal February 08, 2013, 10:51:08 AM
Brent-WTI Surges To 2-Month Highs
8 February 2013
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-08/brent-wti-surges-2-month-highs

While US Crude Imports Plunge To 1997 Levels
8 February 2013
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-08/us-trade-deficit-drops-lowest-january-2010-crude-imports-plunge-1997-levels

Brent crude $109.53 and U.S. crude $90.11 - 31 Dec. 2012
Brent crude $111.43 and U.S. crude $91.92 – 01 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $112.34 and U.S. crude $93.30 – 02 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $112.25 and U.S. crude $93.57 – 08 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $112.21 and U.S. crude $93.97 – 10 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $111.45 and U.S. crude $93.94 – 15 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $110.60 and U.S. crude $94.16 – 16 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $110.92 and U.S. crude $95.18 – 17 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $110.66 and U.S. crude $95.23 – 18 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $111.82 and U.S. crude $95.47 – 21 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $112.23 and U.S. crude $96.30 – 23 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $113.66 and U.S. crude $96.33 - 25 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $113.57 and U.S. crude $96.65 - 28 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $114.11 and U.S. crude $97.32 - 29 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $115.10 and U.S. crude $98.16 - 30 Jan. 2013
Brent crude $116.65 and U.S. crude $97.61 - 02 Feb. 2013
Brent crude $115.64 and U.S. crude $96.27 - 04 Feb. 2013
Brent crude $118.73 and U.S. crude $96.47 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Why gasoline prices are headed even higher
: Letsbereal February 08, 2013, 10:11:19 PM
Why gasoline prices are headed even higher
7 February 2013
, by Myra Saefong - San Francisco (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-gasoline-prices-are-headed-even-higher-2013-02-07

Gasoline prices at the pump have climbed every day for the past 21 days — and they’re not going to let up anytime soon.

On Thursday, the average U.S. price for a gallon of regular gasoline stood at $3.555, making it the most expensive average ever for that day and the highest level since Oct. 26 of last year, according to AAA.

See AAA’s Daily Fuel Gauge Report http://fuelgaugereport.opisnet.com/index.asp

The price has risen 26.3 cents, or about 8%, this year, steeper than the 6.2% increase for the same period in 2012 and 1.6% rise for the same period in 2011, according to the motorist and leisure travel group.

“Gas prices increased at a blistering pace over the previous couple of weeks,” said Michael Green, AAA spokesman, adding that the jump of 17.4 cents between Jan. 28 and Feb. 4 marked the largest weekly price spike in nearly two years.

Read more about the fast rate of increase for gasoline in The Tell blog http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/02/04/gasoline-prices-rise-at-fastest-rate-in-almost-two-years-aaa/

And as the gasoline market set all sorts of milestones, analysts offered more reasons why prices are headed even higher over the next few months.

“This is a very early rise,” said Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst at the Oil Price Information Service. “January has tended to be a quiet month through the years. The rally really began in earnest around Jan. 15.”

Prices saw an “off-season” bottom on Dec. 20 when they averaged $3.219 a gallon, he said, so since that bottom, they’ve rebounded by about 33 cents — “with more increases to come.”

Contributing factors

Consumers haven’t even seen the worst, with a perfect storm of factors driving higher prices.

Many of the issues lifting fuel prices higher are common, but they “seem to have combined at the right time,” said Matt Tormollen, president and chief executive officer at FuelQuest, a Houston-based fuel management software provider.

Typically at this time of year, refineries begin their switch to the more environmentally-friendly summer-blend gasoline and perform maintenance, which “temporarily restricts supply and drives up prices,” he said.

Some refineries have also announced unexpected shutdowns or closings, leading to even tighter refining capacity, said Jeff Lenard, a spokesman at the National Association of Convenience Stores (NACS), a trade group for an industry that sells 80% of the nation’s gasoline.

Late last month, Hess Corp. said it would close its Port Reading, N.J., refinery by the end of February, completing its exit from the refining business.

See Jan. 28 story on the rally in Hess shares http://www.marketwatch.com/story/energy-shares-down-hess-rallies-on-refinery-plan-2013-01-28

At the same time, the price of oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange has climbed around 4% from the end of last year.

As the global economy improves, so does demand for oil, said Lenard, and with continued unrest in Egypt, traders are concerned about what happens if that strife spreads through the country, and to other countries that produce significant amounts of oil.

The glut of oil in storage at Cushing, Okla., the delivery hub for Nymex oil, had been a key reason for last year’s fall in West Texas Intermediate crude prices.

Last year, WTI prices fell 7.1% on Nymex, while Brent crude traded in London scored a gain of 3.5% with tensions in the Mideast among its supportive factors.

The market hoped the completion of the Seaway pipeline expansion last month could alleviate the glut, but terminal capacity issues forced the pipeline’s operator to limit the flow of oil.

Read Enterprise: Seaway bottleneck to end in Q4 http://www.marketwatch.com/story/enterprise-seaway-bottleneck-to-end-in-q4-2013-01-31

That’s contributed to a wider spread between WTI and Brent. WTI’s discount to Brent has grown to more than $20 from just over $15 in mid-January.

Read: What the Brent/WTI oil price spread tells us http://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-brentwti-oil-price-spread-tells-us-2013-02-01

And rising Brent crude prices may lead to a higher-price outlook at the pump.

Gasoline futures prices track Brent crude futures because of the disconnect at Cushing, said Brian Milne, energy editor at Schneider Electric.

The good news is that additional crude production from shale oil in North Dakota and Texas are seen reducing price volatility in WTI crude prices and that, in turn, “would offer more stable prices for refiners,” he said.

Waiting for the peak

Even with all of the factors driving gasoline prices significantly higher, analysts say the cost of the fuel hasn’t peaked yet.

Kloza said that while the pace of increases in the last three weeks, of nearly 10 cents-per-gallon per week, should “lose some steam,” the market will “almost certainly see an uptrend [in prices] prevail into March and perhaps into April.”

“The peak maintenance [for refineries] is probably weeks away, but prices have moved up as professional traders have anticipated this work,” he said.

California, in particular, has seen a lot of early maintenance and prices have already climbed “drastically there and they will climb some more,” said Kloza.

Other price “hot spots” this year, he said, include the Northeast — “where imports are lower and shipping is scarce to move gasoline from the Gulf Coast to New York Harbor — and the Great Lakes, where two of the largest regional refineries will be down for extensive maintenance in late March or April.”

He predicts a national price peak in the $3.75 to $3.95 a gallon range, but the “hot spots” may see a “brief stint above $4 a gallon.”

AAA’s Green, on the other hand, doesn’t expect the national average price to reach as high as last year’s peak of $3.94, which it saw in April.

He sees a peak this spring between $3.60 and $3.80, with prices likely to “surpass $4 per gallon in the very near term” in places like California or New York.

That’s not a big stretch. On Thursday, AAA reported the average price for regular gasoline in California at $3.988.

Brent crude $118.89 and U.S. crude $95.76 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Goodbye Bond Vigilantes, Hello Brent Vigilantes
: Letsbereal February 11, 2013, 07:46:23 PM
Goodbye Bond Vigilantes, Hello Brent Vigilantes
11 February 2013
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-11/goodbye-bond-vigilantes-hello-brent-vigilantes

The flood of Central Bank liquidity into the world's asset markets has worked wonders for the optics of 'wealth' in the last few years.

While correlation is not causation, the divergence from any sense of fundamental reality (and sheer miracle expectations of the future) simply reflect back to the leaking of that central bank liquidity into risk markets everywhere.

However, there appears to be a limiter - or self-governor - that comes along every few months to tap the world's 'belief in economic miracles' on the shoulder.

That 'self-regulator" is almost beyond the control of the central banks - it is simply, the cost of energy.

Time and again in the last few years, even as central bank balance sheets have risen inexorably, we get corrections in equity markets that bring them back to a fundamental reality, however briefly.

The catalyst for those 'corrections' is hard to pin-point but a step back and we see that the flood of new money also spills out to anything that can't be printed (gold, silver, oil) and it is the latter that has a natural drag on the global economy.

So, while the 'wealth' transmission mechanism is now the only policy tool left for central banks, it is the price of Oil that caps that upside thanks to its impact at the margin of a fragile global economy.

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2013/02/20130211_EUECO.jpg)

Nowhere is this more clear than in Europe, where each time Brent crosses above $120 (helped by central bank largesse), macro-economic surprises start to deteriorate rapidly and markets fade.

We are close to $120 (Brent) once again now... With government bonds in US and Europe 'managed' so well, the vigilantes have left the building - and moved to the Crude oil pits...

The same is evident in the US - with $100 WTI apparently the trigger...

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2013/02/20130211_EUECO1.jpg)

which makes one wonder what is driving the Brent-WTI spread divergence (aside from fundamentals which we discussed previously) as it seems $100 is desperately defended in WTI and Brent left to wonder.

But judging by today's move - they are starting to lose the battle...

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2013/02/20130211_EUECO2.jpg)

The Brent VigilantesTM are back in charge...


Brent crude $118.15 and U.S. crude $96.86 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: OPEC warns of risks to U.S. production growth
: Letsbereal February 12, 2013, 05:34:33 PM
OPEC’s higher demand forecast lifts oil prices - EIA ups Brent oil, gasoline price forecasts from previous estimates
12 February 2013
, by Myra P. Saefong and Sara Sjolin - San Francisco (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-futures-gain-opec-raises-forecasts-2013-02-12

ICE: Speculators raise brent crude longs again
11 February 2013
, by Ben Winkley - London (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ice-speculators-raise-brent-crude-longs-again-2013-02-11

Iran proposes Russia develop oil and gas deposits
12 February 2013
, by James Marson - Moscow (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/iran-proposes-russia-develop-oil-and-gas-deposits-2013-02-12

And like predicted by Lindsey Williams:

OPEC warns of risks to U.S. production growth
12 February 2013
, by Sarah Kent - London (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/opec-warns-of-risks-to-us-production-growth-2013-02-12

Brent crude $118.68 and U.S. crude $97.57 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Oil holds above $97 - WTI Oil Gains
: Letsbereal February 14, 2013, 05:08:19 PM
IEA cautious on global oil demand growth http://www.marketwatch.com/story/iea-cautious-on-global-oil-demand-growth-2013-02-13-4485746

EIA data show small-than-expected oil supply climb http://www.marketwatch.com/story/eia-data-show-small-than-expected-oil-supply-climb-2013-02-13

Oil holds above $97 http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-creeps-higher-but-stuck-in-range-2013-02-14

WTI Oil Gains as UN Officials Fail to Reach Iran Deal http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-14/wti-oil-gains-amid-iran-nuclear-talks.html

Russia could double oil supply to China http://www.marketwatch.com/story/russia-could-double-oil-supply-to-china-2013-02-13-224854320

Brent crude $118.04 and U.S. crude $97.30 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: WTI Crude Drops a Second Day; Saudi Exports Fall to 15-Month Low
: Letsbereal February 18, 2013, 03:56:51 PM
WTI Crude Drops a Second Day; Saudi Exports Fall to 15-Month Low
18 February 2013
, by Nayla Razzouk & Ben Sharples (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-18/wti-declines-a-second-day-saudi-exports-fall-to-15-month-low.html

Excerpt:

West Texas Intermediate oil fell for a second day, extending the biggest drop in two weeks.

Saudi Arabia’s crude shipments slid to a 15-month low in December.

New York crude declined as much as 0.6% before a scheduled trading halt for the U.S. Presidents Day holiday.

Saudi Arabia exported 7.06 million barrels of crude a day in December, the least since September 2011, according to the Joint Organizations Data Initiative.

Saudi Arabia has ample supply and will cut exports further, Christof Ruehl, chief economist at BP Plc, said in an interview from London. Brent’s premium to WTI narrowed.

It’s the kind of skewed situation where we have growth in the U.S. but they have enough oil, and where we do have the major demand growth, we don’t have the oil,”

Ole Hansen, the head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S in Copenhagen, said in a telephone interview today.

That’s obviously putting the upside pressure on the Brent crude more than on WTI.”

----

Brent has gained 5.3% this year, while WTI has increased 3.8%.

----

U.S. output at factories, mines and utilities decreased 0.1% after a 0.4 percent gain in December, Fed data showed Feb. 15 in Washington.

----

Hedge funds and other large speculators increased bullish bets on WTI, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s weekly report on Feb. 15.

Net-long positions rose by 9,308 futures and options combined, or 4.4%, to 221,534, the highest level since the week ended March 27, the Commitments of Traders report showed.

WTI has long-term technical support along its 100-week moving average, around $94.73 a barrel, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Futures have halted intraday declines near this indicator in the past four weeks.

Buy orders tend to be clustered close to chart-support levels.

There still seems to be plenty of crude around,” said Anthony Nunan, a senior adviser for risk management at Mitsubishi Corp. in Tokyo.

“The market went up so much in the last month and a half that it was bound to come off.

We have to correct downward from here.

For WTI it will be tough to go to triple digits. We’ve hit a wall at $98.”


Saudi Output

Ruehl of BP said the size of any future reduction in Saudi output will depend on the actions of other members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Iraq, OPEC’s largest producer after Saudi Arabia, curtailed exports by 10% to 2.35 million barrels a day in December, data posted on the website of the initiative known as JODI showed.

Venezuela increased crude shipments by 19% to 1.97 million barrels a day, the most since July 2008, when it exported 2.24 million.

OPEC’s 12 members supplies about 40% of the world’s oil.

JODI, supervised by the Riyadh-based International Energy Forum, uses statistics supplied by national governments to compile data on imports, exports and output for oil-producing and consuming nations.

The data include crude and condensates and exclude natural gas liquids.

Gasoline futures extended gains in New York after settling last week at the highest price since Sept. 28.


Brent crude $117.42 and U.S. crude $95.55 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Gas Prices Surge To Highest Ever On This Day At Fastest Pace In Four Years
: Letsbereal February 18, 2013, 05:02:02 PM
Gas Prices Surge To Highest Ever On This Day At Fastest Pace In Four Years
18 February 2013
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-18/gas-prices-surge-highest-ever-day-fastest-pace-four-years

Excerpt:

Despite being weeks away from the start of the driving season proper, gas prices - at the pump - have been surging recently.

With premium now over $4 nationwide (over $5 in SoCal - up 25 days in a row), this is the most expensive gas has ever been for the second week in February despite gasoline being relatively well supplied.

Gasoline futures have ripped higher as unplanned maintenance, refinery closings, and rising crude oil prices (seemingly more central bank liquidity-driven than middle-east tensions) have impacted wholesale price expectations (and thus retail).

The 44c rise is the fastest in four years and the year-to-date surge over 12% (outpacing stocks) is almost four times faster than average.

What is more worrisome is the fact that seasonally the next month or two are when the biggest price spikes occur - which coupled with the tax-hike drag, will inevitably eat into people's spending habits and sentiment.
: $5 GAS RETURNS TO THE LOS ANGELES AREA!
: Letsbereal February 18, 2013, 05:25:33 PM
$5 GAS RETURNS TO THE LOS ANGELES AREA! http://forum.prisonplanet.com/index.php?topic=236778.msg1405404#msg1405404
: WTI Advances as S&P 500 Climbs to Five-Year High
: Letsbereal February 19, 2013, 05:27:47 PM
WTI Advances as S&P 500 Climbs to Five-Year High
19 February 2013
, by Mark Shenk (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-19/oil-gains-on-german-investor-outlook-bofa-sees-140-bren.html

West Texas Intermediate oil rose after the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed to the highest level in five years.

WTI futures for March delivery, which expire tomorrow, gained 77 cents, or 0.8%, to $96.63 a barrel at 2:28 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The more-active April contract rose 69 cents, or 0.7%, to $97.10.

The volume of all futures traded was 5.1% above the 100-day average.

Floor trading in New York was closed yesterday because of the Presidents Day holiday in the U.S.

Yesterday’s electronic transactions will be booked with today’s trades for settlement.

Brent oil for April settlement increased 19 cents to $117.57 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

Trading volume was 33% below the 100-day average.

Oil rebounded from the day’s lows as the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed to a five-year high, after investor confidence in Germany climbed to the most since April 2010.

The S&P 500 gained 0.6% and Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.4%.


Brent crude $117.32 and U.S. crude $96.66 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: U.S. Gasoline Rises to $3.795 a Gallon in Lundberg Survey
: Letsbereal February 24, 2013, 03:35:59 PM
U.S. Gasoline Rises to $3.795 a Gallon in Lundberg Survey
24 February 2013
, by Dan Murtaugh & Barbara J. Powell (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-24/u-s-gasoline-rises-to-3-795-a-gallon-in-lundberg-survey.html

The average price for regular gasoline at U.S. pumps rose 20.32 cents a gallon in the past two weeks to $3.795 a gallon, according to Lundberg Survey Inc.

The survey covers the period ended Feb. 22 and is based on information obtained at about 2,500 stations by the Camarillo, California-based company.

The average has jumped 53.71 cents this year and is 10.33 cents above a year earlier.

“Although this is a steep rise, it’s not as steep as the price rise during the prior two weeks,” Trilby Lundberg, president of Lundberg Survey, said in a telephone interview.

“There’s reason to expect the price rise will not continue at this pace and may even end soon because crude oil prices are down and refiners are starting to cut wholesale prices to their marketing and retail customers.”

The highest price in the lower 48 U.S. states among the markets surveyed was in Los Angeles, where the average was $4.29 a gallon, Lundberg said.

The lowest price was in Billings, Montana, where customers paid an average of $3.23 a gallon.

Regular gasoline on Long Island, New York, averaged $4.01 a gallon, according to Lundberg.


Brent crude $114.30 and U.S. crude $93.36 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: WTI Oil Rises to Cap Biggest Weekly Gain in a Month
: Letsbereal March 09, 2013, 10:03:01 PM
WTI Oil Rises to Cap Biggest Weekly Gain in a Month
8 March 2013
, by Mark Shenk & Moming Zhou (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-08/wti-oil-fluctuates-after-jobs-data.html

Excerpt:

West Texas Intermediate crude rose after U.S. employers added more jobs than planned, signaling climbing fuel demand, while Brent oil fell to the lowest level of 2013 on increasing flows in a North Sea pipeline.

Futures capped the biggest weekly gain in a month as the Labor Department said that the jobless rate fell to a five-year low of 7.7% in February.

The Brent Pipeline System is “approaching” its targeted flow rate of 80,000 barrels a day, an official for Abu Dhabi National Energy Co. (TAQA), or Taqa, said by phone.

A leak shut the link shut for five days on March 2.

WTI fell earlier as the dollar reached a 2013 high against the euro.

WTI open interest rose to a record for a fifth time yesterday.

“The employment data bodes extremely well for both the overall economy and fuel demand,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC, a New York-based hedge fund that focuses on energy.

“The rally of the dollar is going to cap gains in dollar-denominated commodities like crude.”

Crude oil for April delivery gained 39 cents, or 0.4%, to settle at $91.95 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Prices advanced 1.4% this week, the most since the five days ended Feb. 1.

The volume of all futures traded was 4% below the 100-day average at 3:15 p.m.

Open interest was a record 1.72 million contracts yesterday.

Brent oil for April settlement decreased 30 cents, or 0.3%, to end the session at $110.85 on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

Prices gained 0.4% this week.

The volume of all futures traded was 82% above the 100- day average.


Brent crude $110.88 and U.S. crude $91.87 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Saudi Arabia Said to Raise February Oil Output From 20-Month Low
: Letsbereal March 10, 2013, 12:07:58 PM
Saudi Arabia Said to Raise February Oil Output From 20-Month Low
10 March 2013
, by Wael Mahdi (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-10/saudi-arabia-said-to-raise-february-oil-output-from-20-month-low.html

Saudi Arabia raised crude production in February to 9.15 million barrels a day, an increase of 100,000 barrels daily from the previous month, an official with knowledge of the country’s oil policy said.

The world’s largest crude exporter supplied 9.16 million barrels a day to the market compared with 9.26 million in January, the Persian Gulf official said, asking not to be identified because the information is confidential.

Crude delivered from storage accounted for the 10,000 barrel-a-day excess of supply over production in February, the official said.

The monthly gain in output came after Saudi production declined in January to the lowest level since May 2011, the official said.

Saudi Arabia produced close to 9 million barrels a day for a third month, helping to keep OPEC’s total output near the group’s official target of 30 million barrels.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries pumped an average of 30.7 million barrels a day in February, as rising Libyan production outpaced the cut by Saudi Arabia, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“The 9.15-million level in February is way below our forecasted average for the year, but we are sure output will increase in the second quarter as demand picks up,” Fahd al- Turki, a senior economist at Riyadh-based Jadwa Investment Co., said by telephone.

“Saudis will increase production for sure, but it will not be as sharp as last year’s levels.”

Asian Demand

Jadwa forecasts that Saudi production will reach 9.6 million barrels a day this year, down from 9.9 million in 2012, al-Turki said.

Demand in the second quarter will probably rise from local use and greater consumption in Asia, he said.

Al-Turki said Saudi production cuts in recent months are a response to slower demand, mainly domestic.

“With the current high oil prices, OPEC countries are responding to demand more than their response to the group’s ceiling,” he said.

Brent crude futures for April settlement ended at $110.85 on March 8 on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

National Commercial Bank, Saudi Arabia’s largest lender, estimated in a March 6 note that the nation’s 2013 crude output will average 9.5 million barrels a day.
: Oil tops $92 after late-session turn higher
: Letsbereal March 12, 2013, 01:24:23 AM
Oil tops $92 after late-session turn higher - Traders weigh China data, dollar weakness; gasoline down 1.6%
11 March 2013
, by William L. Watts and Myra P. Saefong - San Francisco (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-futures-edge-lower-on-profit-taking-2013-03-11

Oil futures staged a late-session turnaround Monday, scoring a minor gain to finish above $92 a barrel, as support from a weaker dollar and rising U.S. equities offset some concerns over demand following a weak round of Chinese economic data.


Brent crude $109.90 and U.S. crude $91.91 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Oil scores fourth straight session gain
: Letsbereal March 12, 2013, 05:35:51 PM
Oil scores fourth straight session gain
12 March 2013
, by Myra P. Saefong - San Francisco (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-scores-fourth-straight-session-gain-2013-03-12

Oil futures rose Tuesday, extending their climb to a fourth straight session, with traders optimistic over the outlook for energy demand.

The year-to-date performance in the broader markets and overall strength in the U.S. dollar show improving economic expectations domestically, said Michael Peterson, managing director of energy research at MLV & Co.

April crude tacked on 48 cents, or 0.5%, to settle at $92.54 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

That was the highest settlement since Feb. 27, according to FactSet.

Also see:

Oil looks to extend rise to 4th straight session - OPEC stands pat on demand view; EIA forecasts mostly unchanged http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-flat-on-opec-awaits-us-inventory-data-2013-03-12

No change to OPEC's 2013 oil-demand-growth outlook http://www.marketwatch.com/story/no-change-to-opecs-2013-oil-demand-growth-outlook-2013-03-12

OPEC: Non-OPEC supply cutting into market share http://www.marketwatch.com/story/opec-non-opec-supply-cutting-into-market-share-2013-03-12

API reports unexpected fall in U.S. crude supply http://www.marketwatch.com/story/api-reports-unexpected-fall-in-us-crude-supply-2013-03-12

High gas prices will impact February retail sales data http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/03/12/high-gas-prices-will-impact-february-retail-sales-data/

WTI Oil Trades Near Two-Week High as U.S. Crude Supplies Decline http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-12/wti-oil-trades-near-two-week-high-as-u-s-crude-supplies-decline.html


Brent crude $109.64 and U.S. crude $92.62 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Gas Prices Resume Rise As RBOB Hits 2013 Highs
: Letsbereal March 14, 2013, 01:43:46 AM
Gas Prices Resume Rise As RBOB Hits 2013 Highs
13 March 2013
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-13/gas-prices-resume-rise-rbob-hits-2013-highs

Excerpt:

The meme of the moment appears to be that sliding gas prices (which by the way merely fell back to mid-February levels) will no longer hamper the over-taxed and under-incomed consumer providing yet more upsided-ness for stocks.

Sorry to burst another fictional bubble but Gas prices have now risen for the 3rd day in a row as RBOB (wholesale gas prices) surge to new 2013 highs and crude oil prices push back to one-month highs.

Perhaps that is why today's retail sales data (unadjusted) is not providing the pop that so many talking-heads believe is warranted.

Between RBOB highs and the RIN issues, is it any wonder the CME just hiked 'crack spread' margins in an effort to keep prices under control?

RBOB (wholesale) and Crude energy costs are re-surging and retail gas prices are on the rise once again (as they always lag)...

----

And while the CME hiked crack spread margins pushing down the price of RINs in the last week or so, they remain incredibly high...


Brent crude $108.40 and U.S. crude $92.26 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: WTI Oil Advances a Second Day as Brent Premium Shrinks on Week
: Letsbereal March 15, 2013, 01:26:17 AM
WTI Oil Advances a Second Day as Brent Premium Shrinks on Week
15 March 2013
, by Ben Sharples & Ramsey Al-Rikabi (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-14/wti-oil-trades-near-two-week-high-opec-seen-boosting-shipments.html

Excerpt:

West Texas Intermediate oil rose for a second day, heading for a second weekly advance. Brent crude’s premium to the U.S. benchmark grade is poised for the biggest weekly drop in five months.

WTI futures climbed as much as 0.3% in New York after gaining 0.6% yesterday, the most in a week.

OPEC will increase daily crude exports by 300,000 barrels to 23.75 million in the four weeks to March 30 as refineries in Europe and the U.S. resume after maintenance and boost demand, according to Oil Movements, a tanker tracker. Brent oil is poised for a weekly decline.

“In the U.S., we’re exiting the refinery turnaround period and heading into the summer demand season,” said Anthony Nunan, a senior adviser for risk management at Mitsubishi in Tokyo.

“With the glut in the U.S. Midcontinent being gradually relieved because of pipeline capacity build out, it looks like WTI is going to stabilize and maybe come up.

WTI is much more constructive, whereas Brent really looks like it’s on a downtrend.”

West Texas oil for April delivery rose as much as 32 cents to $93.35 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $93.28 at 11:35 a.m. Singapore time.

The volume of all futures traded was in line with the 100- day average.

The contract advanced 51 cents yesterday to $93.03, the highest since Feb. 25. Prices are up 1.4% this week.


Brent crude $109.50 and U.S. crude $93.27 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Oil futures settle at highest level since Feb. 20
: Letsbereal March 26, 2013, 09:51:30 AM
Oil futures settle at highest level since Feb. 20

Brent crude $108.45 and U.S. crude $95.83 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Oil futures top $96, settle at five-week high
: Letsbereal March 26, 2013, 09:34:31 PM
Oil futures top $96, settle at five-week high http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-higher-after-durable-goods-data-2013-03-26


Brent crude $109.32 and U.S. crude $96.08 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Re: Brent crude $109.32 and U.S. crude $96.08 a barrel now
: Letsbereal March 27, 2013, 02:45:02 PM
Oil claws its way back above $96 a barrel http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-falls-before-supply-data-after-3-session-rise-2013-03-27


Brent crude $109.68 and U.S. crude $96.56 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: WTI Advances a Fifth Day
: Letsbereal March 28, 2013, 10:33:10 AM
WTI Advances a Fifth Day http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-27/wti-trades-near-five-week-high-as-refineries-bolster-operations.html


Brent crude $109.35 and U.S. crude $96.71 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Oil settles above $97, rises nearly 6% for quarter
: Letsbereal March 28, 2013, 07:42:24 PM
Oil settles above $97, rises nearly 6% for quarter http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-settles-above-97-rises-nearly-6-for-quarter-2013-03-28

Oil logs monthly, quarterly gains of more than 5% http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-edges-higher-as-markets-watch-cyprus-2013-03-28


Brent crude $109.77 and U.S. crude $97.23 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Brent market is likely to stay in backwardation for a long time going forward
: Letsbereal March 31, 2013, 06:32:05 PM
There are many reasons to believe that the Brent market is likely to stay in backwardation for a long time going forward
http://www.commodityonline.com/news/why-probable-backwardation-in-wti-crude-oil-would-just-be-temporary-53639-3-53640.html

Having spent 14 out of 16 years in backwardation in the 1989-2004 period, Brent went into contango from 2005 to 2010. Since 2011, Brent has once again moved into firm backwardation, with front-to-third month time spreads averaging $0.66/bbl in the past 12 months, compared to an average of $0.04/bbl in the previous 24 years.

The fact that Brent has stayed in backwardation is surprising given the double-dip recession that Europe has suffered in recent quarters.

European oil demand fell off a cliff in 2012, with consumption dropping from 14.4 to 13.7 million b/d, almost matching the contraction experienced in 2009.


However, stocks have failed to build due to supply scarcity and limited credit availability at refiners.

Looking out, we still expect backwardation in Brent to continue, although a potential cut to rebates in South Korea and a return of South Sudanese oil could briefly temper near-term Brent spreads.


Brent crude $110.10 and U.S. crude $97.29 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Oil Tanker Market In "State Of Panic" As Charter Rates Plunge, Cargoes Rejected
: Letsbereal April 03, 2013, 09:14:57 AM
Oil Tanker Market In "State Of Panic" As Charter Rates Plunge, Cargoes Rejected
2 April 2013
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-02/oil-tanker-market-state-panic-charter-rates-plunge-cargoes-rejected

Via Bloomberg: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-02/frontline-rejects-oil-cargoes-amid-rout-in-tanker-rates.html

"Frontline is offering tankers for charters “selectively” and the market is in a “state of panic” as excess ship supply drives down charter costs, Jens Martin Jensen, chief executive officer of the Hamilton, Bermuda-based company’s management unit, said by phone today."


Brent crude $109.71 and U.S. crude $96.71 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Europe to Shut 10 Refineries as Profits Tumble
: Letsbereal April 05, 2013, 02:54:42 AM
Bakken’s Discount to Brent Widens for First Time in a Week
4 April 2013
, by Dan Murtaugh (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-04/bakken-s-discount-to-brent-widens-for-first-time-in-a-week.html

Bakken crude on the spot market widened its discount to the European benchmark crude for the first time in a week.

Bakken priced in Clearbrook, Minnesota, widened its discount to Dated Brent by $1.05 to $11.07 a barrel at 12:52 p.m. New York time, according to data collected by Bloomberg.

The discount has narrowed since reaching a 2012-record level of $34.77 on Oct. 30.

Bakken competes with foreign oils priced off Brent for space in U.S. East Coast refineries, where companies such as PBF Energy Inc. (PBF) and Philadelphia Energy Solutions have increased rail-unloading capacity to take the crude.

Bakken at Clearbrook narrowed its premium to U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate in Cushing, Oklahoma, by 50 cents for the second straight day to $1.50 a barrel.

The price in Clearbrook is higher than at wells in North Dakota and Montana because of gathering and transportation costs.

Continental Resources Inc., Whiting Petroleum Corp. (WLL) and others have used techniques like horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing to boost production in North Dakota to a peak of 770,000 barrels a day in December from less than 100,000 in July 2005.

The boom has helped the U.S. reverse a decades-long decline in oil production.

The country produced 7.08 million barrels of oil a day in the first 13 weeks of the year, the most since 1992, EIA data show.


Europe to Shut 10 Refineries as Profits Tumble
5 April 2013
, by Konstantin Rozhnov (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-04/europe-to-shut-10-refineries-as-profits-tumble.html

Excerpt:

Oil refiners in Europe will shut 10% of their plants this decade as fuel demand falls to a 19-year low.

Of the region’s 104 facilities, 10 will shut permanently by 2020 from France to Italy to the Czech Republic, a Bloomberg survey of six European refinery executives showed.

Oil consumption is headed for a fifth year of declines to the lowest level since 1994, the International Energy Agency estimates.

Two-thirds of European refineries lost money in 2011, according to Essar Energy Plc (ESSR), owner of the U.K.’s second-largest plant.

“Purely from the falling European demand point of view, one bigger refinery or two smaller plants would have to shut in Europe every year,” David Wech, who helps advise oil companies and governments as managing director at researcher JBC Energy GmbH, said in a phone interview from Vienna.

“And it’s not even assuming any negative impact from more competitive refining markets in other regions.”

A 50% jump in three years in U.S. diesel exports coupled with waning demand for imports of European fuels, as well as two recessions in five years in the euro region, have curbed profit from oil products at companies from Italy’s Eni SpA (ENI) to Royal Dutch Shell Plc.(RDSA).

Refining margins dropped to $7 this month, from a peak of about $20 a barrel in 2008, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The losses are being compounded by the configuration of Europe’s refineries.

Most of the plants, more than 50% of which were constructed in the wake of World War II, are geared toward gasoline production, though diesel now accounts for 75% of the region’s motor fuel needs.


Brent crude $106.38 and U.S. crude $93.06 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Iraq war to keep oil off the market
: Letsbereal April 05, 2013, 04:27:01 AM
Iraq war to keep oil off the market

How Bush won the war in Iraq - really!
29 March 2013
, by Greg Palast for Vice Magazine
http://www.gregpalast.com/how-george-bush-won-the-war-in-iraq-really/

Result: Still $100 barrel oil after 5 years.

So cynical funny if you think about it that American soldiers fought to see their gas bills go up not down which you would expect after occupying Iraq.

This is also the main reason for sanctions on Iran, to keep their oil off the market as much as possible.

: Brent Crude Moves Into Contango for First Time Since June
: Letsbereal April 08, 2013, 01:37:24 AM
Brent Crude Moves Into Contango for First Time Since June
6 April 2013
, by Moming Zhou & Lananh Nguyen (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-05/brent-crude-moves-into-contango-for-first-time-since-june.html

Front-month Brent crude settled lower than the second-month contract for the first time since June on concern that slower economic growth will reduce near- term demand.

The European oil benchmark has slumped 6.3% this year as the region’s sovereign debt crisis spread from Greece to Italy to Cyprus.

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said yesterday that downside risks remain to the region’s economy.

Prices have also declined amid an increase in shipments of crudes in the North Sea blend.

“The contango is an indication that the economy is in bad shape and oil demand is really slowing,” said Rich Ilczyszyn, chief market strategist and founder of commodities trading firm Iitrader.com in Chicago.

There is probably more downside risk going forward.”

Brent for May settlement ended the session 3 cents below June today.

The last time the first- and second-month contracts settled in the so-called contango structure was on June 29.

May Brent declined $2.22, or 2.1%, to close at $104.12 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange, the lowest level since July 24.

The June contract slid $2, or 1.9%, to $104.15.

Brent’s premium to West Texas Intermediate oil, the U.S. benchmark, narrowed to $11.42, the least since June.

Credit Suisse lowered its 2013 Brent price forecast to $112 a barrel from $115 in a research note dated April 3, saying that it’s unlikely commodity demand will be strong enough anytime soon to pull the entire complex higher.

Economic Outlook

“This economic outlook for the euro area remains subject to downside risks,” Draghi said at a press conference yesterday in Frankfurt after the ECB kept its benchmark interest rate at a record low of 0.75%.

The European Union accounts for 16% of world’s oil demand, according to BP Plc (BP/)’s Statistical Review of World Energy.

“I guess you can call it the Mario Draghi spread,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at the Price Futures Group in Chicago.

He believes that in the short term things are bad, and it means oil demand will be bad.”

Oil demand will be “less than it was before” in the next few months, Maria van der Hoeven, executive director of the International Energy Agency, said yesterday in a Bloomberg Television interview from Paris.

A contango structure typically can signal either declining demand or rising supply, or a combination of both.

Loadings Increase

Daily shipments of Brent, Forties, Oseberg and Ekofisk crudes from the North Sea, which make up the Dated Brent benchmark, will increase by 1.5% in May from this month, loading programs obtained by Bloomberg show.

Platts, publisher of benchmark energy prices, last month amended its North Sea Dated Brent crude formula to boost trading liquidity.

The price of Ekofisk and Oseberg grades for loading from June will be adjusted to take their superior quality into account, Platts, a unit of McGraw-Hill Cos., said in e-mailed statement.

Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDSA) proposed changes to the contract it uses to trade North Sea cargoes in February.

“The introduction of quality premiums offers an incentive for more deliveries of Oseberg and Ekofisk, and thus has the potential to further gird the supply of oil underpinning the BFOE complex and the Dated Brent price assessment,” Dave Ernsberger, Platts global editorial director of oil, said last month.


Brent crude $104.56 and U.S. crude $92.88 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Oil reclaims $93 as supply concerns heat up
: Letsbereal April 08, 2013, 05:30:31 PM
Oil reclaims $93 as supply concerns heat up - Iran, Nigeria stir up supply fears; WTI/Brent spread narrows
8 April 2013
, by Myra P. Saefong and Carla Mozee - San Francisco (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-gains-after-weekly-loss-of-nearly-5-2013-04-08

Crude-oil futures settled higher Monday, marking their first gain in four sessions, as a lack of progress in nuclear talks between world powers and Iran and conflicts in Nigeria stirred up worries about oil supplies.

"Iran, Nigeria stir up supply fears," How convenient.

Brent crude $104.78 and U.S. crude $93.52 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: EIA ups WTI oil, natural-gas price forecasts
: Letsbereal April 09, 2013, 03:22:10 PM
EIA ups WTI oil, natural-gas price forecasts
9 April 2013
, by Myra P. Saefong - San Francisco (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/eia-ups-wti-oil-natural-gas-price-forecasts-2013-04-09

The U.S. Energy Information Administration on Tuesday raised its West Texas Intermediate crude-oil and natural-gas price forecasts for this year, from its March estimates.

WTI crude-oil prices are likely to average $94 in 2013, the EIA said in its short-term energy outlook report.

In March, it forecast an average of $92 in for 2013.

The EIA also expects natural-gas spot prices to average $3.52 per million British thermal units this year, up from a previous estimate of $3.41.

For 2014, however, it forecast $3.60 per million Btus, down from $3.63 in the March report.

Regular U.S. retail gasoline prices were to average $3.56 a gallon this year, up a penny from the March estimate of $3.55.


Brent crude $106.40 and U.S. crude $94.18 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: OPEC cuts global oil demand view - Oil output falls in March
: Letsbereal April 10, 2013, 06:28:45 PM
U.S. crude supplies jump over 5 million bbls: API
9 April 2013
, by Myra P. Saefong - San Francisco (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-crude-supplies-jump-over-5-million-bbls-api-2013-04-09

WTI Falls as Supplies Rise, OPEC Trims Demand Forecast
10 April 2013
, by Grant Smith & Konstantin Rozhnov (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-09/wti-oil-drops-from-one-week-high-as-u-s-crude-stockpiles-climb.html

OPEC oil output falls in March: Platts survey
10 April 2013
, by Myra P. Saefong - San Francisco (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/opec-oil-output-falls-in-march-platts-survey-2013-04-10

OPEC cuts global oil demand view in wake of Cyprus
10 April 2013
, by Benoit Faucon - London (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/opec-cuts-global-oil-demand-view-in-wake-of-cyprus-2013-04-10


Brent crude $105.51 and U.S. crude $94.49 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: IEA sees slower oil-demand growth, supply risks
: Letsbereal April 11, 2013, 09:24:01 AM
IEA sees slower oil-demand growth, supply risks
11 April 2013
, by Sarah Kent - London (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/iea-sees-slower-oil-demand-growth-supply-risks-2013-04-11

The International Energy Agency once again cut its outlook for global oil demand Thursday, but warned significant supply risks continue to threaten the market.


Brent crude $105.63 and U.S. crude $94.40 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Oil slips below $88, at lowest since December
: Letsbereal April 16, 2013, 12:14:13 PM
Brent Crude Falls Below $100; WTI Lowest in Four Months
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-15/wti-crude-falls-to-four-month-low-as-stockpiles-seen-climbing.html

Oil slips below $88, at lowest since December
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-futures-below-88-ahead-of-supply-data-2013-04-16

Brent Crude Oil Falls Below $100 a Barrel
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-16/brent-crude-oil-falls-below-100-a-barrel.html

Consumer inflation falls 0.2% in March – Core CPI also softer than expected
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/consumer-inflation-falls-02-in-march-2013-04-16-81034829

Bernankesan: Oh My God!!! Deflation! No problem, more QE.


Brent crude $99.45 and U.S. crude $88.36 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Crude Climbs Most This Year as Gasoline Supply Tumbles
: Letsbereal April 25, 2013, 09:23:56 AM
Crude Climbs Most This Year as Gasoline Supply Tumbles
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-24/crude-increases-to-one-week-high-on-ecb-rate-cut-signals.html

Los Angeles Gasoline Gains as Supplies Drop to Seasonal Record
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-24/los-angeles-gasoline-gains-as-supplies-drop-to-seasonal-record.html

Diesel to Climb as Record Planting Eats at Inventories
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-24/diesel-to-climb-as-record-planting-eats-at-inventories.html


Brent crude $102.06 and U.S. crude $91.40 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Oil moves higher as dollar drops
: Letsbereal April 29, 2013, 09:35:31 AM
Oil moves higher as dollar drops
29 April 2013
, by Michael Kitchen and Barbara Kollmeyer - Madrid (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-adds-to-losses-ahead-of-busy-week-2013-04-29


Brent crude $103.41 and U.S. crude $93.74 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Crude Inventories Surge To Record High As Energy Demand Collapses
: Letsbereal May 01, 2013, 10:48:48 PM
Crude Inventories Surge To Record High As Energy Demand Collapses
1 May 2013
, by Tyler Durden (Bloomberg)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-01/crude-inventories-surge-record-high-energy-demand-collapses

A month ago we highlighted the somewhat stunning reality of the real economy via the EIA's detailed energy supply and demand data.

The key takeaway was  that we hoped this did not represent the true state of the economy since the data was so dismal.

Fast forward to today and the DOE just released a much higher than expected build in crude inventories that took the stuffed-channel of oil products to all-time highs.

The 395.3 million barrels is higher than the previous record in July 1990.

There appears to be a number of factors at play - none of which are positive.

There is a surge in supply due to the incessant harvesting of shale oil (which could have its own problems as we noted here).

Second, we suspect there is a degree of 'channel-stuffing' occurring - if we pump it, they will buy - as producers and transporters are desperate to keep active and show incremental business (despite fading railcar loadings).

But perhaps most important, as EIA data has shown, there has been a collapse in end demand for crude products not seen since the 1990s.

Today's surge in inventories appears to confirm demand remains subdued at best.

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2013/04-2/20130501_DOE.jpg)

Chart: Bloomberg


Brent crude $100.00 and U.S. crude $90.88 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Crude Gains Most in Six Months
: Letsbereal May 03, 2013, 01:09:32 AM
Crude Gains Most in Six Months as Jobless Claims Decline
2 May 2013
, by Moming Zhou (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-02/crude-gains-first-time-in-3-days-on-jobless-claims.html

WTI-Brent 16-Month Low Pits Goldman Against BofA
2 May 2013
, by Grant Smith  (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-02/wti-brent-16-month-low-pits-goldman-against-bofa.html

OPEC Exports Seen Stable Amid ‘Glum’ Demand, Oil Movements Says
2 May 2013
, by Grant Smith  (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-02/opec-exports-seen-stable-amid-glum-demand-oil-movements-says.html


Brent crude $102.60 and U.S. crude $93.66 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Oil ends at one-month high, up 2.8% on week
: Letsbereal May 03, 2013, 07:26:54 PM
Oil ends at one-month high, up 2.8% on week
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crude-oil-slips-after-rally-awaits-us-jobs-data-2013-05-03

Brent Vigilantes Awake
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-03/new-all-time-highs-stocks-brent-vigilantes-awake


Brent crude $100.00 and U.S. crude $90.88 – 01 May 2013
Brent crude $102.60 and U.S. crude $93.66 – 02 May 2013

Brent crude $104.17 and U.S. crude $95.61 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Oil futures log third straight session gain
: Letsbereal May 07, 2013, 02:53:34 AM
Oil futures log third straight session gain - MidEast tension raises supply concern; natural-gas prices fall
6 May 2013
, by Myra P. Saefong and Carla Mozee - San Francisco (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-extend-rally-trade-above-96-2013-05-06


Brent crude $100.00 and U.S. crude $90.88 – 01 May 2013
Brent crude $102.60 and U.S. crude $93.66 – 02 May 2013
Brent crude $104.17 and U.S. crude $95.61 – 03 May 2013
Brent crude $104.90 and U.S. crude $95.38 a barrel now
http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Oil prices holding to five-week high at $96
: Letsbereal May 09, 2013, 03:10:24 AM
Oil prices holding to five-week high at $96
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-holding-to-five-week-high-at-96-2013-05-09


Brent crude $100.00 and U.S. crude $90.88 – 01 May 2013
Brent crude $102.60 and U.S. crude $93.66 – 02 May 2013
Brent crude $104.17 and U.S. crude $95.61 – 03 May 2013
Brent crude $104.90 and U.S. crude $95.38 – 07 May 2013
Brent crude $104.09 and U.S. crude $96.30 a barrel now
http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: $100 a barrel is “Reasonable” for Consumers and Producers, Arab Oil Min. Says
: Letsbereal May 10, 2013, 10:29:59 AM
$100 a barrel is “Reasonable” for Consumers and Producers, Arabia Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi says
10 May 2013
, by Wael Mahdi (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-10/saudi-arabia-seeks-stable-crude-prices-minister-al-naimi-says.html


I remember not many years ago the said $60 is “Reasonable” and then $80 and now $100 a barrel is a “Reasoanable” price.

This definitely shows the inflation trough currency devaluations by world wide QE in my opinion.

Silver and Gold simply will follow suit, $100 “Reasonable” oil price shows that now.

NB! $100 is a “Reasonable” oil price with world wide demand in decline!


Brent crude $100.00 and U.S. crude $90.88 – 01 May 2013
Brent crude $102.60 and U.S. crude $93.66 – 02 May 2013
Brent crude $104.17 and U.S. crude $95.61 – 03 May 2013
Brent crude $104.90 and U.S. crude $95.38 – 07 May 2013
Brent crude $104.09 and U.S. crude $96.30 – 09 May 2013
Brent crude $101.93 and U.S. crude $93.97 a barrel now
http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Oil futures settle higher, reclaim $95 a barrel
: Letsbereal May 16, 2013, 09:52:54 PM
Oil futures settle above $95 a barrel - Natural-gas prices fall after 99 billion-cubic-foot rise in U.S. supplies
16 May 2013
, by Saumya Vaishampayan and Myra P. Saefong (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-lose-grip-of-gains-ahead-of-us-data-2013-05-16


Brent crude $103.74 and U.S. crude $95.04 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1

So, oil stays ridiculously high while the world economy is tanking. Smell some rat?

If not read this:

Europe Raids 3 Companies In an Inquiry On Oil Prices http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/15/business/global/europe-raids-oil-companies-in-price-manipulation-inquiry.html

Shell Targeted With BP in EU Price Fixing Probe for Oil: Energy http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-14/statoil-raided-by-competition-authorities-in-oil-price-probe.html

EU Oil Manipulation Probe Shines Light on Platts Pricing http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-15/eu-oil-manipulation-probe-shines-light-on-platts-pricing-window.html

Global Regulators Probing Oil-Price Reporting Compliance http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-15/global-markets-regulator-probing-oil-price-reporting-compliance.html
: Brent Vigilantes Drag Gas Prices Near 3-Month High
: Letsbereal May 20, 2013, 01:47:02 PM
Brent Vigilantes Drag Gas Prices Near 3-Month High
20 May 2013
, by Tyler Durden (Zero hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-20/brent-vigilantes-drag-gas-prices-near-3-month-high

and while we are still below record levels on the average, there are pockets where prices are already at record highs...

According to AAA Oklahoma's gas price tracking website, on Sunday, the average price in Oklahoma City for a gallon of self-serve regular gasoline is at its highest point ever, $3.963, breaking Saturday's price of $3.952, which was also a record high.

U.S. Gasoline Rises to $3.6566/Gallon in Lundberg Survey http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-19/u-s-gasoline-rises-to-3-6566-gallon-in-lundberg-survey.html


Brent crude $105.09 and U.S. crude $96.77 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Hedge funds believe in successful oil price manipulation
: Letsbereal May 21, 2013, 10:21:22 AM
Hedge funds believe in successful oil price manipulation:

Hedge Funds Boost ICE Brent Crude Net-Longs to Six-Week High http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-20/hedge-funds-boost-ice-brent-crude-net-longs-to-six-week-high.html


Brent crude $104.36 and U.S. crude $96.48 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Oil swings to a gain despite EIA says crude supply at highest since 1978
: Letsbereal May 30, 2013, 02:18:19 PM
Oil swings to a gain despite jump in crude supply
30 May 2013
, by Saumya Vaishampayan and Barbara Kollmeyer - New York (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-below-94-ahead-of-us-supply-labor-data-2013-05-30

Crude-oil futures swung to gains on Thursday despite a surge in supplies to their highest level ever.

EIA says crude supply at highest since 1978
30 May 2013
, by Myra P. Saefong - San Francisco (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/eia-says-crude-supply-at-highest-since-1978-2013-05-30

BofA Merrill downgrades oil on weaker demand in China, Europe
29 May 2013
, by Claudia Assis (MarketWatch - Blogs)
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/energy-ticker/2013/05/29/bofa-merrill-downgrades-oil-on-weaker-demand-in-china-europe/

Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch dialed down their expectations for oil prices on weaker-than-expected demand in China and Europe and plentiful supplies.

U.A.E. Energy Minister Says Crude Oil $100 a barrel Prices ‘Suitable and Fair’
27 May 2013
, by Wael Mahdi (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-27/u-a-e-energy-minister-says-crude-oil-prices-suitable-and-fair-.html

$100 a barrel is “Reasonable” for Consumers and Producers, Arabia Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi says
10 May 2013
, by Wael Mahdi (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-10/saudi-arabia-seeks-stable-crude-prices-minister-al-naimi-says.html


Brent crude $102.04 and U.S. crude $93.42 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: OPEC Keeps Output Target Unchanged, Content With $100 Oil
: Letsbereal May 31, 2013, 01:06:09 PM
OPEC Keeps Output Target Unchanged, Content With $100 Oil
31 May 2013
, by Nayla Razzouk, Maher Chmaytelli & Grant Smit (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-31/opec-keeps-output-target-unchanged-content-with-100-oil.html


Brent crude $101.40 and U.S. crude $93.14 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Oil Prices Climb
: Letsbereal June 03, 2013, 11:57:58 AM
Oil prices climb on supply risks, weak dollar
3 June 2013
, by Myra P. Saefong and Barbara Kollmeyer - San Francisco (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-decline-after-weak-china-data-2013-06-03

Hedge funds believe in successful oil price manipulation: http://forum.prisonplanet.com/index.php?topic=229887.msg1423825#msg1423825

Brent Crude Oil Rises Back to Level Before OPEC Meeting http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-03/brent-crude-futures-extend-earlier-gain-to-exceed-101.html

Hedge funds and other money managers increased bullish bets on Brent last week to the most in more than three months, a report showed.


Brent crude $102.21 and U.S. crude $93.33 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: EIA Increases WTI Forecast for 2013 to $93.25 a Barrel
: Letsbereal June 11, 2013, 07:13:30 PM
EIA Increases WTI Forecast for 2013 to $93.25 a Barrel
11 June 2013
, by Asjylyn Loder & Moming Zhou (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-11/eia-increases-wti-forecast-for-2013-to-93-25-a-barrel.html

The U.S. Energy Information Administration increased its crude-oil price forecast for 2013 as heating demand boosted consumption of distillates and liquefied petroleum gas.


Brent crude $102.58 and U.S. crude $94.96 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: WTI Crude Trades Near Three-Week High
: Letsbereal June 13, 2013, 09:13:14 PM
They use every single shitty excuse to keep oil high:

WTI Crude Trades Near Three-Week High on U.S. Economic Outlook
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-14/wti-crude-trades-near-three-week-high-on-u-s-economic-outlook.html

OPEC Curbs Shipments Amid U.S. Output Surge, Oil Movements Says
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-13/opec-curbs-shipments-amid-u-s-output-surge-oil-movements-says.html


Brent crude $104.79 and U.S. crude $96.60 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: WTI Crude Tops $98 – Highest In 9 Months
: Letsbereal June 14, 2013, 10:47:27 AM
WTI Crude Tops $98 – Highest In 9 Months
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-14/wti-tops-98-highest-9-months

Brent crude $101.40 and U.S. crude $93.14 – 31 May 2013
Brent crude $102.21 and U.S. crude $93.33 – 03 June 2013
Brent crude $102.58 and U.S. crude $94.96 – 11 June 2013
Brent crude $104.79 and U.S. crude $96.60 – 13 June 2013

Brent crude $106.20 and U.S. crude $97.71 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Re: Brent crude $106.20 and U.S. crude $97.71 a barrel now
: jofortruth June 16, 2013, 11:05:21 AM
Oil Hits 9-Month High As Syria Tensions Escalate
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100816356






: Brent crude $105.84 and U.S. crude $97.89 a barrel now
: Letsbereal June 16, 2013, 11:59:24 AM
Oil Hits 9-Month High As Syria Tensions Escalate
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100816356

Brent crude $101.40 and U.S. crude $93.14 – 31 May 2013
Brent crude $102.21 and U.S. crude $93.33 – 03 June 2013
Brent crude $102.58 and U.S. crude $94.96 – 11 June 2013
Brent crude $104.79 and U.S. crude $96.60 – 13 June 2013
Brent crude $106.20 and U.S. crude $97.71 – 14 June 2013

Brent crude $105.84 and U.S. crude $97.89 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Oil set to test $100 as summer driving season gets underway: chart watchers
: Letsbereal June 17, 2013, 11:55:02 AM
Oil set to test $100 as summer driving season gets underway: chart watchers
17 June 2013
, by William L. Watts (MarketWtach - Blogs)
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/06/17/oil-set-to-test-100-as-summer-driving-season-gets-underway-chart-watchers/

While the start of summer driving season is providing its typical fundamental fodder for rising oil prices, the monthly futures charts are repeating a pattern that points to a test of the $100-a-barrel-level and above for crude oil futures, say technical analysts at RBC Capital Markets.

Chart watchers Javed Mirza and Ray Hanson note that crude has been stuck in a $15 price range since last summer, narrowing to a tighter band between $90 and $95 a barrel since April, forming what chartists call a symmetrical triangle pattern.

Such narrowing patterns often end with strong moves, they note, adding that they see a bias to the upside.

West Texas Intermediate oil futures on Friday ended at their highest level since late January, according to FactSet, and traded up 47 cents in recent action at $98.32 a barrel.

The RBC chartists see more room to the upside:

We expect WTI Oil to move higher over the coming quarter and to challenge resistance near $100 with next resistance near $114.

Support is near $85 which, if broken, would negate our positive outlook.


Brent crude $101.40 and U.S. crude $93.14 – 31 May 2013
Brent crude $102.21 and U.S. crude $93.33 – 03 June 2013
Brent crude $102.58 and U.S. crude $94.96 – 11 June 2013
Brent crude $104.79 and U.S. crude $96.60 – 13 June 2013
Brent crude $106.20 and U.S. crude $97.71 – 14 June 2013
Brent crude $105.84 and U.S. crude $97.89 - 16 June 2013
Brent crude $106.06 and U.S. crude $98.02 a barrel now
http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Pain at the Pump: Gasoline Prices by Country
: Letsbereal June 22, 2013, 05:22:33 AM
Pain at the Pump: Gasoline Prices by Country http://www.bloomberg.com/visual-data/gas-prices/20132:Netherlands:EUR:l


Brent crude $101.09 and U.S. crude $93.95 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Enbridge Line Shutdowns Sap Output as U.S. Crude Gains on Europe
: Letsbereal June 26, 2013, 05:48:21 AM
Enbridge Line Shutdowns Sap Output as U.S. Crude Gains on Europe
26 June 2013
, by Lynn Doan & Eliot Caroom (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-25/enbridge-line-shutdowns-sap-output-as-u-s-crude-gains-on-europe.html

Excerpt:

Enbridge Inc. (ENB)’s shutdown of Alberta pipelines capable of moving 1.17 million barrels a day toward U.S. markets is shrinking output and boosting U.S. crude to the highest level against Europe’s benchmark oil since 2011.

The company’s Athabasca and Waupisoo lines, carrying oil from northern Alberta’s rapidly expanding oil-sands operations to hubs farther south, remained closed today, with the exception of a segment from Cheecham to Hardisty. Nexen Inc. and Suncor Energy Inc. (SU), facing transportation limits, cut output.

Restricted pipeline flows to the U.S., dependent on Canada for 25% of oil imports, are buoying U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude to the highest level against European counterpart North Sea Brent in almost 30 months.

A prolonged outage would support a further narrowing of the WTI-Brent gap, already forecast to shrink to $5 a barrel this year as new conduits bring Canadian and U.S. shale oil to the Gulf Coast.

“It’s still unclear how long they’re going to be completely down,” Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates LLC in Houston, said by telephone yesterday.

“Every additional day that Enbridge Canada is down supports the WTI price.”

Alberta, where oil output is on course to more than double to 3.8 million barrels a day by 2022, sent 1.7 million a day to the U.S. in 2011, provincial government figures show.

Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI)’s Trans Mountain and TransCanada Corp. (TRP)’s Keystone pipeline expansions are being proposed to help move Alberta’s growing oil volumes to markets elsewhere in Canada and the U.S.

West Texas Intermediate for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange climbed 14 cents to settle at $95.32 a barrel yesterday.

The oil’s discount versus Brent narrowed 4 cents to $5.94, the smallest since January 2011, and was back above $6 in electronic trading late yesterday.


Brent crude $101.35 and U.S. crude $94.96 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Oil futures on track for fourth day of advances
: Letsbereal June 27, 2013, 08:16:11 AM
Oil futures on track for fourth day of advances
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-futures-on-track-for-fourth-day-of-advances-2013-06-27


Brent crude $102.08 and U.S. crude $95.74 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: WTI Crude Oil Heads for Longest Gain Since April
: Letsbereal June 28, 2013, 01:24:47 PM
WTI Crude Oil Heads for Longest Gain Since April
28 June 2013
, by Grant Smith (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-28/wti-little-changed-after-biggest-gain-in-two-months-on-u-s-data.html

West Texas Intermediate rose for a fifth day, its longest increase since April.

WTI futures climbed as much 0.8%. Brent’s premium to WTI shrank after closing at the narrowest since January 2011.

“Oil trading is mostly macro-driven today,” said Andrey Kryuchenkov, an analyst at VTB Capital in London who sees WTI meeting “very strong resistance” next month at $99 a barrel.

“Refinery runs in the U.S. are very healthy, but the upside for crude will still be limited by the long-term comfortable cushion of supply.”

WTI for August delivery increased as much as 77 cents to $97.82 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest intraday price since June 20, and was at $97.33 at 1:28 p.m. London time.

The contract rose $1.55, or 1.6%, to $97.05 yesterday, the biggest gain since May 3.

Futures are up 5.8% this month and little changed in the second quarter.


Brent crude $102.95 and U.S. crude $97.34 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: WTI Crude Nears $100 - Highest Close In 13 Months
: Letsbereal July 02, 2013, 03:39:16 PM
WTI Crude Nears $100 - Highest Close In 13 Months
2 July 2013
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-02/wti-crude-nears-100-highest-close-13-months

With the highest close in 13 months, WTI tested as high as $99.87 intraday.


Brent crude $103.99 and U.S. crude $99.56 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Oil shoots past $101
: Letsbereal July 03, 2013, 08:46:12 AM
Oil shoots past $101 as Egypt protests mount
2 July 2013
, by Barbara Kollmeyer and Carla Mozee - Madrid (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-above-102-on-egypt-turmoil-supply-decline-2013-07-02


Brent crude $105.55 and U.S. crude $101.89 a barrel now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Re: Brent crude $105.55 and U.S. crude $101.89 a barrel now
: jofortruth July 03, 2013, 09:50:07 AM
(http://i187.photobucket.com/albums/x222/jo56_photos/ece4ab4640cd03772776d038c8025036.jpg)
: OPEC Crude Exports to Rise, Oil Movement Says
: Letsbereal July 04, 2013, 08:16:11 PM
OPEC Crude Exports to Rise, Oil Movement Says
4 July 2013
, by Lananh Nguyen (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-04/opec-crude-exports-to-rise-oil-movement-says.html

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will boost shipments by 2.3% through late July as driving demand peaks during the northern hemisphere summer, according to Oil Movements.

The group that supplies about 40% of the world’s oil will ship 24.18 million barrels a day in the four weeks to July 20, up from 23.64 million in the period to June 22, the tanker tracker said in an e-mailed report.

The figures exclude two of OPEC’s 12 members, Angola and Ecuador.

“This is it, this is the mid-year peak,” Roy Mason, the company’s founder, said today by phone from Halifax, England.

“It’s the point in the year when refiners, both east and west of Suez, are looking for crude for the summer season, when refinery runs hit peak. So that drives demand up.”


Middle Eastern shipments will jump by 2.9% to 17.83 million barrels a day, compared with 17.32 million in the month to June 22, according to Oil Movements.

That figure includes non-OPEC nations Oman and Yemen.

Crude on board tankers will increase by 6.3% to 496.01 million barrels versus 466.5 million, data from Oil Movements show.

The researcher calculates the volumes by tallying tanker bookings. Its figures exclude crude held on vessels for storage.


Brent crude $101.40 and U.S. crude $93.14 – 31 May 2013
Brent crude $102.21 and U.S. crude $93.33 – 03 June 2013
Brent crude $102.58 and U.S. crude $94.96 – 11 June 2013
Brent crude $104.79 and U.S. crude $96.60 – 13 June 2013
Brent crude $106.20 and U.S. crude $97.71 – 14 June 2013
Brent crude $105.84 and U.S. crude $97.89 - 16 June 2013
Brent crude $106.06 and U.S. crude $98.02 - 17 June 2013
Brent crude $101.09 and U.S. crude $93.95 - 22 June 2013
Brent crude $102.08 and U.S. crude $95.74 - 27 June 2013
Brent crude $102.95 and U.S. crude $97.34 - 28 June 2013
Brent crude $103.99 and U.S. crude $99.56 - 02 July 2013
Brent crude $105.55 and U.S. crude $101.89 - 03 July 2013
Brent crude $105.52 and U.S. crude $101.38 A Barrel Now
http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Brent crude $107.70 and U.S. crude $103.63 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal July 05, 2013, 07:24:52 PM
Brent crude $101.40 and U.S. crude $93.14 – 31 May 2013
Brent crude $102.21 and U.S. crude $93.33 – 03 June 2013
Brent crude $102.58 and U.S. crude $94.96 – 11 June 2013
Brent crude $104.79 and U.S. crude $96.60 – 13 June 2013
Brent crude $106.20 and U.S. crude $97.71 – 14 June 2013
Brent crude $105.84 and U.S. crude $97.89 - 16 June 2013
Brent crude $106.06 and U.S. crude $98.02 - 17 June 2013
Brent crude $101.09 and U.S. crude $93.95 - 22 June 2013
Brent crude $102.08 and U.S. crude $95.74 - 27 June 2013
Brent crude $102.95 and U.S. crude $97.34 - 28 June 2013
Brent crude $103.99 and U.S. crude $99.56 - 02 July 2013
Brent crude $105.55 and U.S. crude $101.89 - 03 July 2013
Brent crude $105.52 and U.S. crude $101.38 - 04 July 2013

Brent crude $107.70 and U.S. crude $103.63 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Crude Rises to 14-Month High
: Letsbereal July 09, 2013, 09:31:52 PM
Crude Rises to 14-Month High
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-09/crude-falls-for-second-day-as-dollar-gains.html

WTI Crude Increases a Second Day
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-09/wti-crude-increases-a-second-day-as-stockpiles-decline-in-u-s-.html

Brent crude $101.40 and U.S. crude $93.14 – 31 May 2013
Brent crude $102.21 and U.S. crude $93.33 – 03 June 2013
Brent crude $102.58 and U.S. crude $94.96 – 11 June 2013
Brent crude $104.79 and U.S. crude $96.60 – 13 June 2013
Brent crude $106.20 and U.S. crude $97.71 – 14 June 2013
Brent crude $105.84 and U.S. crude $97.89 - 16 June 2013
Brent crude $106.06 and U.S. crude $98.02 - 17 June 2013
Brent crude $101.09 and U.S. crude $93.95 - 22 June 2013
Brent crude $102.08 and U.S. crude $95.74 - 27 June 2013
Brent crude $102.95 and U.S. crude $97.34 - 28 June 2013
Brent crude $103.99 and U.S. crude $99.56 - 02 July 2013
Brent crude $105.55 and U.S. crude $101.89 - 03 July 2013
Brent crude $105.52 and U.S. crude $101.38 - 04 July 2013
Brent crude $107.70 and U.S. crude $103.63 - 05 July 2013
Brent crude $107.78 and U.S. crude $104.32 A Barrel Now
http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Brent crude $108.07 and U.S. crude $105.09 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal July 10, 2013, 10:32:23 AM
Brent crude $101.40 and U.S. crude $93.14 – 31 May 2013
Brent crude $102.21 and U.S. crude $93.33 – 03 June 2013
Brent crude $102.58 and U.S. crude $94.96 – 11 June 2013
Brent crude $104.79 and U.S. crude $96.60 – 13 June 2013
Brent crude $106.20 and U.S. crude $97.71 – 14 June 2013
Brent crude $105.84 and U.S. crude $97.89 - 16 June 2013
Brent crude $106.06 and U.S. crude $98.02 - 17 June 2013
Brent crude $101.09 and U.S. crude $93.95 - 22 June 2013
Brent crude $102.08 and U.S. crude $95.74 - 27 June 2013
Brent crude $102.95 and U.S. crude $97.34 - 28 June 2013
Brent crude $103.99 and U.S. crude $99.56 - 02 July 2013
Brent crude $105.55 and U.S. crude $101.89 - 03 July 2013
Brent crude $105.52 and U.S. crude $101.38 - 04 July 2013
Brent crude $107.70 and U.S. crude $103.63 - 05 July 2013
Brent crude $107.78 and U.S. crude $104.32 - 09 July 2013
Brent crude $108.07 and U.S. crude $105.09 A Barrel Now
http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Brent crude $108.05 and U.S. crude $105.49 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal July 12, 2013, 07:56:37 AM
Brent crude $101.40 and U.S. crude $93.14 – 31 May 2013
Brent crude $102.21 and U.S. crude $93.33 – 03 June 2013
Brent crude $102.58 and U.S. crude $94.96 – 11 June 2013
Brent crude $104.79 and U.S. crude $96.60 – 13 June 2013
Brent crude $106.20 and U.S. crude $97.71 – 14 June 2013
Brent crude $105.84 and U.S. crude $97.89 - 16 June 2013
Brent crude $106.06 and U.S. crude $98.02 - 17 June 2013
Brent crude $101.09 and U.S. crude $93.95 - 22 June 2013
Brent crude $102.08 and U.S. crude $95.74 - 27 June 2013
Brent crude $102.95 and U.S. crude $97.34 - 28 June 2013
Brent crude $103.99 and U.S. crude $99.56 - 02 July 2013
Brent crude $105.55 and U.S. crude $101.89 - 03 July 2013
Brent crude $105.52 and U.S. crude $101.38 - 04 July 2013
Brent crude $107.70 and U.S. crude $103.63 - 05 July 2013
Brent crude $107.78 and U.S. crude $104.32 - 09 July 2013
Brent crude $108.07 and U.S. crude $105.09 - 10 July 2013
Brent crude $108.05 and U.S. crude $105.49 A Barrel Now
http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Gas Prices Have Biggest Daily Jump In 6 Months
: Letsbereal July 12, 2013, 06:09:50 PM
Gas Prices Have Biggest Daily Jump In 6 Months
12 July 2013
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-12/gas-prices-have-biggest-daily-jump-6-months

Excerpt:

Do not worry, we are told on a daily basis, the rise in crude oil prices is transitory and won't affect gas prices and implicitly the US consumer's pocket book (already ravaged by spiking mortgage rates).

Well, sorry to burst that little fantasy but gas prices in the last few days have surged (up 9c in 4 days).

In fact today's jump is the largest in six months and pushes regular close to its all-time high for this time of year.

Arguing not to worry as gas prices are more sensitive to Brent is a non-starter as it is very evident, despite the export of WTI, that gas prices are tracking the higher prices of crude oil and if history is any guide - with regard the lead-lag from crude to wholesale gasoline to retail, gas prices will be at new all-time highs for this time of year within the next month.


Brent crude $109.04 and U.S. crude $106.25 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Goldman Sees Risk of Oil Prices Gaining Amid OPEC Supply Losses
: Letsbereal July 15, 2013, 12:45:43 PM
Goldman Sees Risk of Oil Prices Gaining Amid OPEC Supply Losses
15 July 2013
, by Grant Smith (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-15/goldman-sees-risk-of-oil-prices-gaining-amid-opec-supply-losses.html

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) said price risks for Brent crude in the second half of the year have changed “to the upside” amid production losses in some OPEC nations and political threats to supply.

Reductions in output from Libya, Iraq and Nigeria have the potential to limit availability, the bank said today in an e-mailed report.

Even so, increased production outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will probably keep global markets adequately supplied this year, said Goldman, which forecasts Brent crude to average $105 a barrel in the second half. Brent futures traded at about $108 a barrel in London today.

“The risks have shifted more to the upside over the short term due to the possibility of continuing OPEC production shortfalls and increased geopolitical risks,” Jeff Currie, the head of commodities research in New York, said in the report.

OPEC output fell by 370,000 barrels a day in June amid unrest and violence in Libya, Iraq and Nigeria, the International Energy Agency said in its most recent monthly market report on July 11.

The losses come just as increasing seasonal demand for motor fuels is pushing up global oil consumption, Goldman said. OPEC supplies about 40 percent of the world’s crude.


Brent crude $108.78 and U.S. crude $105.82 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Hedge Funds Bolster Brent Crude Net-Longs to Three-Week High
: Letsbereal July 16, 2013, 04:48:15 PM
Hedge Funds Bolster Brent Crude Net-Longs to Three-Week High
15 July 2013
, by Grant Smith (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-15/hedge-funds-bolster-brent-crude-net-longs-to-three-week-high-1-.html

Hedge funds and other money managers raised bullish bets on Brent crude to their highest level in almost five months in the week to July 9, according to data from the ICE Futures Europe exchange.

Speculative bets that prices will rise, in futures and options combined, outnumbered short positions by 176,988 lots, the London-based exchange said today in its weekly Commitments of Traders report.

The increase of 28,458 lots, or 19.2%, is the biggest in percentage terms since November, 2012, and brings net-long positions to their highest since June 18.

Bearish positions by producers, merchants, processors and users of Brent outnumbered bullish positions by 400,082, an increase of 7.5%.

It’s the biggest net-short position since January, 2011, the earliest available point for the data.

Brent rose 3.7% in the week to July 9, to $107.81 a barrel, and traded at $105.26 as of 12:05 p.m. London time.

ICE publishes, usually each Monday, aggregate numbers for long and short positions for speculators and institutional investors, as well as commercial companies that buy or sell futures to protect against price moves.

Analysts and investors follow changes in speculators’ positions because such transactions can reflect an expectation of a change in prices.

Swaps dealers reduced net-long positions by 3.2% to 254,418 in the week to July 9, according to the data.

Money managers’ net-long bets on European gasoil futures rose a second week, by 66% to 42,122 contracts.

That’s the highest since April 2.


Brent crude $109.39 and U.S. crude $105.90 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Brent crude $108.83 and U.S. crude $108.17 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal July 18, 2013, 07:31:29 PM
Brent crude $108.83 and U.S. crude $108.17 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: WTI Tops $109; Surges Above Brent For First Time In 3 Years
: Letsbereal July 19, 2013, 09:11:22 AM
WTI Tops $109; Surges Above Brent For First Time In 3 Years http://www.zerohedge.com/node/476598


Brent crude $109.05 and U.S. crude $109.06 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Brent and U.S Crude exactly on par now
: Letsbereal July 19, 2013, 05:23:31 PM
WTF!!! Brent and U.S Crude exactly on par now:

Brent crude $108.48 and U.S. crude $108.46 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Crude Caps Biggest Monthly Gain Since August
: Letsbereal July 31, 2013, 04:44:36 PM
Crude Caps Biggest Monthly Gain Since August
31 July 2013
, by Moming Zhou & Mark Shenk (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-31/crude-heads-for-best-month-since-august-on-u-s-gdp.html


Brent crude $107.75 and U.S. crude $105.15 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Oil settles above $105, up nearly 9% on month
: Letsbereal August 01, 2013, 06:53:45 AM
Oil settles above $105, up nearly 9% on month
31 July 2013
, by Myra P. Saefong and Carla Mozee - San Francisco (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-notch-small-rise-with-gdp-fed-on-tap-2013-07-31


Brent crude $109.39 and U.S. crude $106.73 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: WTI Trades Near One-Week High
: Letsbereal August 13, 2013, 01:36:14 PM
WTI Trades Near One-Week High on U.S. Supply, Mideast
13 August 2013
, by Grant Smith (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-12/wti-rises-a-third-day-amid-speculation-u-s-stockpiles-shrank.html


Brent crude $109.56 and U.S. crude $106.21 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Oil prices rise on Middle East supply concerns
: Letsbereal August 15, 2013, 05:34:54 AM
Oil prices rise on Middle East supply concerns
15 August 2013
, by Carla Mozee - Los Angeles (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-rise-on-middle-east-supply-concerns-2013-08-15


Brent crude $101.40 and U.S. crude $93.14 – 31 May 2013
Brent crude $102.21 and U.S. crude $93.33 – 03 June 2013
Brent crude $102.58 and U.S. crude $94.96 – 11 June 2013
Brent crude $104.79 and U.S. crude $96.60 – 13 June 2013
Brent crude $106.20 and U.S. crude $97.71 – 14 June 2013
Brent crude $105.84 and U.S. crude $97.89 – 16 June 2013
Brent crude $106.06 and U.S. crude $98.02 – 17 June 2013
Brent crude $101.09 and U.S. crude $93.95 – 22 June 2013
Brent crude $102.08 and U.S. crude $95.74 – 27 June 2013
Brent crude $102.95 and U.S. crude $97.34 – 28 June 2013
Brent crude $103.99 and U.S. crude $99.56 – 02 July 2013
Brent crude $105.55 and U.S. crude $101.89 – 03 July 2013
Brent crude $105.52 and U.S. crude $101.38 – 04 July 2013
Brent crude $107.70 and U.S. crude $103.63 – 05 July 2013
Brent crude $107.78 and U.S. crude $104.32 – 09 July 2013
Brent crude $108.07 and U.S. crude $105.09 – 10 July 2013
Brent crude $109.04 and U.S. crude $106.25 – 12 July 2013
Brent crude $108.78 and U.S. crude $105.82 – 15 July 2013
Brent crude $109.39 and U.S. crude $105.90 – 16 July 2013
Brent crude $108.83 and U.S. crude $108.17 – 18 July 2013
Brent crude $108.48 and U.S. crude $108.46 – 19 July 2013
Brent crude $107.75 and U.S. crude $105.15 – 31 July 2013
Brent crude $109.39 and U.S. crude $106.73 – 01 August 2013
Brent crude $109.56 and U.S. crude $106.21 – 13 August 2013
Brent crude $111.52 and U.S. crude $107.72 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Oil reclaims $105 - Brent $110
: Letsbereal August 23, 2013, 07:29:54 AM
Oil reclaims $105 as demand outlook improves - Natural-gas futures up after small-than-expected supply rise
22 August 2013
, by Myra P. Saefong and Carla Mozee - San Francisco (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-mildly-pare-losses-after-china-figures-2013-08-22


Brent crude $110.26 and U.S. crude $105.14 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Oil futures rally above $106
: Letsbereal August 23, 2013, 12:33:12 PM
Oil futures rally above $106, pare weekly loss - U.S. new home sales disappoint, dulling Fed taper expectations
23 August 2013
, by Myra P. Saefong and Sara Sjolin - San Francisco (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-adds-to-gains-as-stocks-rally-2013-08-22


Brent crude $111.10 and U.S. crude $106.71 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Brent crude $111.33 and U.S. crude $107.07 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal August 25, 2013, 09:44:19 PM
Brent crude $111.33 and U.S. crude $107.07 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Brent crude $113.93 and U.S. crude $108.93 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal August 27, 2013, 11:32:26 AM
Loud War Drums Send Gold Into New Bull Market, Oil Soaring
27 August 2013
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-27/war-drums-push-gold-bull-market-send-oil-soaring


Brent crude $113.93 and U.S. crude $108.93 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Brent crude $114.28 and U.S. crude $108.97 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal August 27, 2013, 03:10:58 PM
Brent crude $114.28 and U.S. crude $108.97 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Brent crude $114.28 and U.S. crude $108.97 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal August 27, 2013, 03:29:04 PM
Silver Update 8/20/13 Oil and Ice http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DHBNmw3K5fw
27 August 2013, BrotherJohnF



Very interesting from BrotherJohnF indeed.

Also see:


How Goldman Sachs Hikes Our Food and Oil Prices At Will http://forum.prisonplanet.com/index.php?topic=197135.0

How Goldman Sachs Decides the Oil Price at Wish with ROUND-TRIP TRADES http://www.ktradionetwork.com/wealth/goldman-sachs-oil-scam-passes-25-trillion/

Goldman’s $500 billion fraud on the people of the world http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2009/0413/096-sachs-semgroup-goldman-goose-oil.html

Coming soon: Brent trade with no Brent crude http://forum.prisonplanet.com/index.php?topic=228787.0
: Libya Oil Output Tumbles as Protests Spread Westward
: Letsbereal August 27, 2013, 05:15:58 PM
Libya Oil Output Tumbles as Protests Spread Westward
27 August 2013
, by Maher Chmaytelli (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2013-08-27/libya-oil-output-tumbles-as-protests-spread-westward.html


Brent crude $114.65 and U.S. crude $108.94 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: SocGen’s Shocking Oil Forecast: $150 Upside; $125 Base Case
: Letsbereal August 27, 2013, 10:53:59 PM
LOlz

SocGen’s Shocking Oil Forecast: $150 Upside; $125 Base Case Following Syrian Attack “Within A Week”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-27/socgens-shocking-oil-forecast-150-upside-125-base-case-following-syrian-attack-withi

WTF!

Brent crude $116.42 and U.S. crude $110.90 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Brent crude $116.88 and U.S. crude $111.76 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal August 28, 2013, 02:06:44 AM
Crude Breaks Through An Asian Sea Of Red To 27 Month High
27 August 2013
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-27/crude-breaks-through-asian-sea-red-27-month-high


Brent crude $116.88 and U.S. crude $111.76 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Fuel Supply-Demand Deficit Widens Without Iran, EIA Says
: Letsbereal September 01, 2013, 08:34:41 PM
Fuel Supply-Demand Deficit Widens Without Iran, EIA Says
29 August 2013
, by Moming Zhou and Mark Shenk (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2013-08-29/fuel-supply-demand-deficit-widens-without-iran-eia-says.html

Excluding Iran from the global oil market increased the shortfall between worldwide supply and demand, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said.

Global petroleum use averaged 2.2 million barrels a day more than output in July and August when Iran is excluded from the calculations, the EIA, the Energy Department’s statistical arm, said in a report today.

Iran can help reduce the deficit by 1.5 million barrels a day as the country’s production outpaced demand, the EIA said.

The examination of oil and fuel supplies and prices outside of Iran came as the U.S., the U.K. and other Western countries debate a military strike against Syria, an ally of Iran, after Syria’s government allegedly used chemical weapons against civilians.

Iran is facing European Union sanctions against its oil exports aimed at stopping the country’s nuclear programs.

Global petroleum production excluding Iran averaged 85 million barrels a day in July and August and consumption averaged 87.2 million, the EIA said. Iran produced 3.4 million barrels a day of fuels and used 1.9 million.

Iran produced 2.57 million barrels a day of crude in August, up 10,000 barrels from the previous month, a Bloomberg survey showed.

Output was down 180,000 barrels from a year earlier. Iran, which was OPEC’s second-biggest producer as recently as June 2012, is now in sixth place.

The Middle East accounted for 35% of global oil production in the first quarter of this year, International Energy Agency data showed.

EU Sanctions

The EU sanctions enacted on July 1, 2012, ban the purchase, transport, financing and insurance of Iranian oil.

Iran has said that its nuclear program is for civilian energy and medical research.

The U.S., other United Nations Security Council members and the EU suspect a covert atomic weapons program.

The prospect of an imminent attack on Syria has faded as U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron, the U.S.’s top ally, struggled to win parliamentary backing for military strikes that critics said echoed the push to war in Iraq.

The Obama administration is also laboring to marshal conclusive evidence backing its assertion that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was directly responsible for the attack, said three intelligence officials familiar with the situation.

Iran has warned that an attack on Syria would drag the whole region into the conflict.

Syria borders Iraq and is near Iran, countries that together hold almost a fifth of the output capacity from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, according to Bloomberg estimates.


Brent crude $112.41 and U.S. crude $106.01 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Brent crude $112.41 and U.S. crude $106.01 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal September 04, 2013, 08:21:20 AM
Brent crude $115.23 and U.S. crude $107.96 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: On This Day In History, Crude Oil Has Never Been More Expensive
: Letsbereal September 05, 2013, 01:05:15 PM
On This Day In History, Crude Oil Has Never Been More Expensive
5 September 2013
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-05/day-history-crude-oil-has-never-been-more-expensive

Excerpt:

We are sure this is just a 'transitory' storm-in-a-teacup, but for those who 'use' energy, the price of the most important raw material in the world has never been higher on this day of the year than it is today...

must be all this growth? http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-04/recovery-supporting-taper-talk

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2013/08-2/20130905_oil_0.png) (http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2013/08-2/20130905_oil.png)


Brent crude $115.09 and U.S. crude $108.08 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Crude Climbs to Two-Year High on Syria
: Letsbereal September 06, 2013, 03:53:37 PM
Crude Climbs to Two-Year High on Syria
6 September 2013
, by Moming Zhou (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-06/crude-rises-for-second-day-after-jobs-report.html


Brent crude $116.02 and U.S. crude $110.35 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: U.S. Gasoline Rises to $3.5847 a Gallon in Lundberg Survey
: Letsbereal September 09, 2013, 08:38:03 PM
U.S. Gasoline Rises to $3.5847 a Gallon in Lundberg Survey
8 September 2013
, by Barbara Powell & Moming Zhou (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-08/u-s-gasoline-rises-to-3-5847-a-gallon-in-lundberg-survey-1-.html

Hedge Funds Cut Brent Net-Longs for First Time in Five Weeks
9 September 2013
, by Grant Smith (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2013-09-09/hedge-funds-cut-brent-net-longs-for-first-time-in-five-weeks.html


Brent crude $112.88 and U.S. crude $108.68 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Fund Warns US Oil To Surge Above Global Benchmark On Cushing Shortage
: Letsbereal September 23, 2013, 09:54:49 PM
Fund Warns US Oil To Surge Above Global Benchmark On Cushing Shortage
23 September 2013
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-23/fund-warns-us-oil-surge-above-global-benchmark-cushing-shortage

Excerpt:

At the time time we noted the plunge in the spread was as much related to US infrastructure and technical issues as the war premium and now Pierre Andurand, manager of one of this year's most successful commodity hedge funds,

believes US crude will trade at a premium to the Brent benchmark within weeks, counter to the expectations of many in the market.

As The FT reports, the ex-Goldman trader is known for taking bold positions, and while not commenting in specific trades, he noted

Via The FT,

... the former Goldman Sachs oil trader believes US crude will trade at a premium to the Brent benchmark within weeks, counter to the expectations of many in the market.

----

“In order for Cushing inventories to stop drawing and start building, I think WTI [the US benchmark] should be at a premium to Brent [the global benchmark].”

That view goes directly against indications in the futures market that US oil will continue trading at a discount of $3 to $4 per barrel for the rest of the year.

----

WTI had traded at a steep discount to Brent for several years as a glut of production from US shale oilfields weighed on US prices.

But the discount narrowed sharply this year as pipelines opened to transport crude from storage tanks in Cushing, Oklahoma, to refineries around Houston.

Mr Andurand argues that Cushing, the delivery point for WTI, is now running short of oil, and that the US benchmark will need to trade at a premium to draw crude back into storage.

He estimates a minimum of 20m barrels is needed to prevent damage to the network of tanks and pipelines around the town, and believes that level could be reached within weeks.

He also thinks very little of the oil left at Cushing is of the high quality stipulated in the WTI contract.



Brent crude $107.93 and U.S. crude $103.40 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: On This Day In History, Oil Prices Have Never Been Higher
: Letsbereal September 27, 2013, 07:51:14 PM
On This Day In History, Oil Prices Have Never Been Higher
27 September 2013
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-27/day-history-oil-prices-have-never-been-higher

Excerpt:

The recent drop in WTI crude oil prices has brought out the ubiquitous "well, that's a tax cut for the US consumer" recency-biased talking-heads always looking for a silver-lining to justify something.

What they fail to notice, is at $103.57, this is the highest price WTI crude oil has ever been at the end of September.

The reason timing is important is the annual cycle of oil prices means comparing Summer with Winter and so on is misleading.

So is the highest price ever for oil in the Fall still a positive for the economy?

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2013/09/20130927_oil_0.jpg)


Brent crude $108.43 and U.S. crude $102.81 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Re: Brent crude $108.43 and U.S. crude $102.81 A Barrel Now
: Honor18 September 28, 2013, 10:02:35 AM
Funny thing that because gas has fallen down 25 censt per gallon here in the last 4 days
: Brent crude $108.81 and U.S. crude $103.65 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal October 03, 2013, 02:02:36 AM
Brent crude $108.81 and U.S. crude $103.65 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1


Bottomline: Oil stays ridiculously high considering we're in a epic crises for 5 years now.
: Brent crude $109.50 and U.S. crude $103.70 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal October 05, 2013, 09:47:12 AM
Brent crude $109.50 and U.S. crude $103.70 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: IMF Sees Possible Oil-Price Shock From Middle East Unrest
: Letsbereal October 08, 2013, 09:35:59 AM
IMF Sees Possible Oil-Price Shock From Middle East Unrest
8 October 2013
, by Edward Welsch (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2013-10-08/imf-sees-possible-oil-price-shock-from-middle-east-unrest.html

Excerpt:

A potential surge in oil prices caused by unrest in the Middle East and North Africa may cut global growth by as much as 0.5 percentage point next year, the International Monetary Fund said in its World Economic Outlook.

In the worst case, a disruption in the Middle East would push oil to $150 a barrel, the Washington-based lending agency said in its October World Economic Outlook, leading to “adverse effects on confidence, with capital retreating to safe havens and a persistent decline in equity prices.”

The IMF forecast that world GDP will increase by 3.6% in 2014, up from 2.9% this year, mainly driven by an improving U.S. economy.

Average global oil prices will decline slightly to an average of $101.40 a barrel as emerging market demand slows.

A chemical attack in Syria on Aug. 21 caused Brent crude prices to jump 6.2% to a high of $116.61 a barrel on Aug. 28 as the U.S. and its allies threatened to respond with missile attacks against the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Syria’s agreement to dispose of its chemical weapons stockpiles helped ease tension and the rising Brent price, which settled at $109.68 a barrel yesterday.

The IMF forecast three oil-surge scenarios. In the first, a short-lived disruption would cause oil to jump as much as 20% for a few weeks, with only a small effect on growth.

“A larger production disruption assumes that the Syria conflict spills over, for example by halting Iraqi oil exports,” the IMF said.

Syria borders Iraq, which produced 3.1 million barrels of oil a day in June, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration data.


Also see:

Arab Unrest to Cost $800 Billion as U.A.E. Benefits, HSBC Says
8 October 2013
, by Alaa Shahine (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2013-10-08/arab-unrest-to-cost-800-billion-as-u-a-e-benefits-hsbc-says.html


Brent crude $110.44 and U.S. crude $103.84 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Brent Reaches Strongest Level Against WTI in Three Months
: Letsbereal October 11, 2013, 06:42:55 AM
Brent Reaches Strongest Level Against WTI in Three Months
10 October 2013
, by Moming Zhou (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2013-10-09/wti-near-three-month-low-as-u-s-inventories-rise-most-in-a-year.html

West Texas Intermediate’s discount to Brent crude reached the widest point in three months as oil declined for the third time in four days on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

WTI for November delivery fell 25 cents to $101.36 a barrel at 9:12 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The contract fell to $101.61 yesterday. Trading was 35 percent above the 100-day average for the time of day.

Brent for November advanced $1.13, or 1 percent, to $110.19 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

Trading was 27% above the 100-day average. The North Sea crude reached a premium of $8.86 to WTI, the biggest difference since June 7.


OPEC Curbing Supply to Two-Year Low Sees Sluggish Fuel Demand
10 October 2013
, by Grant Smith (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2013-10-10/opec-curbing-supply-to-two-year-low-sees-sluggish-fuel-demand.html


Brent crude $111.41 and U.S. crude $101.69 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1



What I’ve been thinking, say the last year, is this condition the world economy is in doesn’t justify current oil prices at all.

The Arabs have said it before and they say it again “Sluggish Fuel Demand”. So somtins smellin rotten and it’s not in the state of Denmark this time.

Could it be that while they can manipulate the paper price of silver & gold down, to hide the dollar devaluation, they can’t do this with oil and thus oil stays high as a sign of a weak dollar.

If this is true you’ll never see low oil again, at least not in dollar terms.

Banksters are also playing the derivative oil and food markets with their easy, funny money, driving prices up but dollar devaluation is the main cause of high oil now in my opinion.

When the Arabs said before to be “satisfied” with $50-$60 a barrel oil which later became “satisfied” at $80 and now is already $100 “satisfied”.

So, indeed they will defend that $100 a barrel level thus ‘OPEC Curbing Supply to Two-Year Low’.

I said it before, this in fact shows the inflation or more accurate the devaluating of the dollar which feels like inflation when you living in the U.S..
: Crude at $100 Right Level to Boost Output, Al-Shahristani Says
: Letsbereal October 16, 2013, 09:37:41 AM
Crude at $100 Right Level to Boost Output, Al-Shahristani Says
16 October 2013
, by Anthony DiPaola (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2013-10-16/crude-at-100-right-level-to-boost-output-al-shahristani-says.html


Brent crude $109.83 and U.S. crude $101.22 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1

: Oil Outlook Raised by World Bank On Supply Disruptions
: Letsbereal October 19, 2013, 12:03:00 PM
Iron Ore Outlook Raised by World Bank on Recovery, Oil on Supply
18 October 2013
, by Rudy Ruitenberg (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2013-10-18/iron-ore-outlook-raised-by-world-bank-on-recovery-oil-on-supply.html

“The recent uptick in oil prices reflected production declines by Libya and Iraq, a loss of 1 million barrels a day each and, less so, fears that the Syrian conflict may spread to the Gulf and cause major disruption in oil supplies,” it said.


If it isn’t for some oil pipeline leak in Timbuktu and oil prices tend to go lower the U.S. always provides the world with a fresh conflict.

Supply disruptions are easily made these days.

It would be easy for some serious guerilla’s to concentrate on oil disruptions and to destroy Yankee poppie fields.

Terror bombing attacks are mostly done by secret service members.

Because public bombing onslaughts serve no purpose other than to arouse the public opinion so they can steel their freedom and do more of faulty tax spending on fake security measurements.



Brent crude $109.94 and U.S. crude $100.86 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: El-Badri: $100 to $110 a barrel “acceptable to producers and consumers alike”
: Letsbereal October 21, 2013, 09:35:58 PM
$100 to $110 a barrel are “acceptable to producers and consumers alike,” El-Badri said http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2013-10-21/world-economy-a-major-worry-for-opec-oil-producers-badri-says.html


Brent crude $109.69 and U.S. crude $98.96 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Raymond James & Associates forecast crude is heading down $70 a barrel next year
: Letsbereal October 25, 2013, 05:55:33 AM
Marshall Adkins of Raymond James & Associates forecast crude is heading down to $70 a barrel next year http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2013-10-24/oil-s-5-trillion-permian-boom-threatened-by-70-crude.html


Lindsey Williams predicted that there would come a time the elite would bring down oil to hit income of all oil producing nations especially the miserable Arabs.

It didn’t happen yet will it come next year?


Brent crude $106.73 and U.S. crude $97.33 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Brent crude $109.15 and U.S. crude $98.60 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal October 28, 2013, 11:57:17 AM
Brent crude $109.15 and U.S. crude $98.60 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Re: Brent crude $109.15 and U.S. crude $98.60 A Barrel Now
: EvadingGrid October 28, 2013, 12:07:45 PM
Saudi Arabia and America have fallen out, so it will only get worse, climaxing in some retro re-run of the  1970's Oil Crisis...
: Re: Brent crude $109.15 and U.S. crude $98.60 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal October 28, 2013, 02:00:53 PM
Saudi Arabia and America have fallen out, so it will only get worse, climaxing in some retro re-run of the  1970's Oil Crisis...

WTI Crude Rises for Third Day as Libyan Production Falls
28 October 2013
, by Mark Shenk (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2013-10-28/brent-crude-rises-from-11-week-low-as-libyan-oil-output.html

West Texas Intermediate crude rose for a third day as Libyan output fell and on speculation that the U.S. Federal Reserve will maintain the pace of stimulus. Brent crude headed for the biggest gain in more than two weeks.


If you want a crises, like the NWO does, oil is the best way to do it.
: OIL TRIBULATIONS
: Letsbereal October 30, 2013, 11:07:09 PM
OIL TRIBULATIONS

U.S. Ebbing Oil Demand – West Texas Intermediate fell, extending a second monthly loss
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2013-10-30/wti-oil-declines-a-second-day-as-u-s-crude-stockpiles-increase.html

Libya was unable to restart its 350,000 barrel-a-day Sharara field as intended, Moftah Alamin, a spokesman for Tuareg protesters, said by phone yesterday.

Minority Tuareg nomads pressing for official recognition of their language and greater political rights have halted flows from the oil field, one of Libya’s biggest.

Eni Third-Quarter Profit Drops as Libya Turmoil Cuts Output
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2013-10-30/eni-third-quarter-profit-drops-as-libya-turmoil-cuts-oil-output.html

Genel Sees Output Rising 50% Once Turkey Pipeline in Use
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2013-10-30/genel-sees-output-rising-50-once-turkey-pipeline-in-use.html

Keystone XL Review Hijacked by Activists TransCanada Says
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2013-10-30/keystone-xl-review-hijacked-by-activists-transcanada-says.html


Brent crude $109.66 and U.S. crude $96.55 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: WTI Falls Below $95 for First Time Since June on Supply
: Letsbereal November 01, 2013, 11:25:27 AM
WTI Falls Below $95 for First Time Since June on Supply
1 November 2013
, by Mark Shenk (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2013-11-01/wti-crude-heads-for-fourth-weekly-decline.html


Brent crude $107.05 and U.S. crude $94.95 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: OPEC Exports to Drop as U.S. Output Gains, Oil Movements Says
: Letsbereal November 01, 2013, 02:14:58 PM
OPEC Exports to Drop as U.S. Output Gains, Oil Movements Says
31 October 2013
, by Morgane Lapeyre (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2013-10-31/opec-exports-to-drop-as-u-s-output-gains-oil-movements-says.html

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will cut crude exports through mid-November as rising U.S. output allows the nation to curb purchases from the Middle East and Africa, according to Oil Movements.

OPEC, which supplies about 40% of the world’s oil, will reduce sailings by 80,000 barrels a day, or 0.3%, to 23.78 million barrels in the four weeks to Nov. 16, the tanker tracker said today in a report.

That compares with 23.86 million in the period to Oct. 19. The figures exclude two of OPEC’s 12 members, Angola and Ecuador.

“There’s a lot of non-OPEC supply coming to the market” from the U.S. and North Sea, Roy Mason, the company’s founder, said by phone from Halifax, England.

OPEC shipments are “weak because of American production,” he said.

OPEC exports are set to increase in the second half of next month as heating demand rises before winter in the northern hemisphere, Mason said.

Brent crude traded at $108.68 a barrel as of 4:02 p.m. on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London, about 7% lower than a six-month high of $117.34 on Aug. 28.

Middle Eastern shipments will fall 0.7% to 17.43 million barrels a day in the month to Nov. 16, versus 17.56 million in the previous period, according to Oil Movements.

Those figures include non-OPEC nations Oman and Yemen.

Crude on board tankers will decline by about 6% to 462 million barrels on Nov. 16, data from Oil Movements show.

The researcher calculates volumes by tallying tanker bookings and excludes crude held on vessels for storage.

OPEC’s members are Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela.

It will next meet in Vienna on Dec. 4.


Brent crude $106.62 and U.S. crude $94.91 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: WTI Oil Slips to 4-Month Low as U.S. Crude Supply Rises
: Letsbereal November 04, 2013, 08:55:58 AM
WTI Oil Slips to 4-Month Low as U.S. Crude Supply Rises
4 November 2013
, by Rupert Rowling and Winnie Zhu (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2013-11-04/wti-crude-trades-near-lowest-level-since-june-on-supply-gains.html

Excerpt:

West Texas Intermediate oil fell to the lowest in more than four months amid speculation U.S. crude supplies will be sufficient.

Futures in New York sank as much as 0.6%, expanding last week’s 3.3% decline.

Crude stockpiles in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer, rose for the past six weeks, according to government data.

Libya is preparing to resume exports from two terminals, a spokesman for the state oil company said.

“The oil market has been oversupplied for some time now and that hasn’t changed,” Myrto Sokou, senior research analyst at Sucden Financial Ltd. in London, said by phone.

“It is now reacting more to macro-financial news than fundamental data, so the main focus of the day will be the release of key U.S. economic data.”

WTI for December delivery fell as much as 55 cents to $94.06 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest intraday price since June 26.

The contract was at $94.20 at 12:32 p.m. London time. The volume of oil futures traded in New York was about 34% below the 100-day average.

Brent for December settlement was down 29 cents at $105.62 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

The European benchmark crude was at a premium of $11.42 to WTI, compared with $11.30 on Nov. 1.


Brent crude $105.26 and U.S. crude $94.19 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Abu Dhabi’s New Das Crude to Replace Two Grades From July
: Letsbereal November 12, 2013, 08:34:52 PM
Abu Dhabi’s New Das Crude to Replace Two Grades From July
12 November 2012
, by Maher Chmaytelli and Nayla Razzouk (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2013-11-12/abu-dhabi-s-new-das-crude-to-replace-two-grades-from-july.html

Excerpt:

Abu Dhabi, holding about 6% of the world’s proven oil reserves, introduced a new crude blend, Das, to improve shipping flexibility as the United Arab Emirates sheikhdom seeks to boost production.

Das crude will go on sale in July and replace Abu Dhabi’s Umm Shaif and Lower Zakum grades, two of the emirate’s four crudes, state-owned Abu Dhabi Marine Operating Co. said today in a statement.

The new blend will consist 55% of Lower Zakum crude, Ali R. Al-Jarwan, chief executive officer of the offshore oil and natural gas producer known as ADMA-OPCO, said at a news briefing in Abu Dhabi.

Das will sell at about the same price as Lower Zakum and at a level set retroactively by a month, said Sultan Al Mehairi, marketing and refining director at Abu Dhabi National Oil Co., or Adnoc, which owns 60% of ADMA-OPCO.

Lower Zakum crude is priced retroactively for October sales at $112.20 a barrel.

We are targeting, of course, the Asian market,” Al Mehairi told reporters.

The new blend’s quality is similar to that of Saudi Arabia’s Extra Light grade, which has a density of 37.8 degrees on the American Petroleum Institute scale and a sulfur content of 1.1%,

according to a January survey of crude specifications published by the U.S. Energy Administration.

Das will have an API density of 39.2 degrees and sulfur content of 1.3%, ADMA-OPCO’s Al-Jarwan said.

U.S. to Be Top Oil Producer by 2015 on Shale, IEA Says
12 November 2012
, by Grant Smith (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2013-11-12/u-s-nears-energy-independence-by-2035-on-shale-boom-iea-says.html

EU, Japan to Lose Third of High-Energy Goods Share, IEA Says
12 November 2012
, by Mathew Carr (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2013-11-12/eu-japan-may-lose-third-of-high-energy-goods-market-iea-says.html

WTI Crude Falls to 5-Month Low as Discount to Brent Grows
12 November 2012
, by Moming Zhou and Mark Shenk (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2013-11-12/crude-drops-first-time-in-three-days-on-supply-outlook.html


Brent crude $105.99 and U.S. crude $93.10 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Brent crude $108.51 and U.S. crude $94.01 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal November 14, 2013, 07:30:49 PM
Brent crude $108.51 and U.S. crude $94.01 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Brent crude $108.45 and U.S. crude $92.96 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal November 18, 2013, 03:04:16 PM
Brent Drops for a Second Day; Citigroup Lowers Forecast
18 November 2013
, by Grant Smith and Ben Sharples (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2013-11-18/wti-drops-as-saudi-arabia-crude-exports-reach-eight-year-high.html


Brent crude $108.45 and U.S. crude $92.96 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: U.S. gasoline use halved since 2006
: Letsbereal November 21, 2013, 06:50:04 AM
U.S. gasoline use halved since 2006 http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=a103600001&f=a


Brent crude $107.99 and U.S. crude $93.84 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Re: Brent crude $107.99 and U.S. crude $93.84 A Barrel Now
: Effie Trinket November 21, 2013, 09:38:33 AM
Top oil producer yet prices keep going up.  TPTB want everyone to pay the equivalent of Deathcare prices fo energy, because they actually don't want 320+ million slaves using any energy at all.  Since they can't just push a big red button to make us all commit suicide, they do the next best thing which is multi-faceted austerity measures to achieve the same end result.
: Brent crude $110.49 and U.S. crude $94.72 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal November 22, 2013, 06:45:11 PM
Brent crude $110.49 and U.S. crude $94.72 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Brent crude $110.11 and U.S. crude $92.78 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal December 01, 2013, 02:43:52 AM
Brent crude $110.11 and U.S. crude $92.78 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Brent crude $111.86 and U.S. crude $96.74 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal December 04, 2013, 10:03:45 AM
Brent crude has settled above $100 a barrel for all but five days this year.

It averaged $108.57 since the start of the year, compared with $111.68 in 2012 and $110.85 in 2011.

FROM: OPEC Maintains Crude-Production Target at Vienna Talks http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2013-12-04/opec-seen-keeping-cap-naimi-says-market-in-best-shape.html


Brent crude $111.86 and U.S. crude $96.74 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Brent crude $112.03 and U.S. crude $97.56 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal December 05, 2013, 06:21:52 AM
Brent Seen Over $100 for Fourth Year as OPEC Bets on Demand
5 December 2013
, by James Herron (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2013-12-05/brent-oil-seen-over-100-for-fourth-year-as-opec-bets-on-demand.html

Brent will average $105 in 2014, according to the median of 31 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Six analysts contacted yesterday and Dec. 3 said they wouldn’t adjust their forecasts if the OPEC quota was unchanged.


Brent crude $112.03 and U.S. crude $97.56 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Brent crude $111.75 and U.S. crude $97.82 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal December 07, 2013, 06:46:43 AM
Brent crude $111.75 and U.S. crude $97.82 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Brent crude $110.30 and U.S. crude $98.96 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal December 19, 2013, 02:29:28 PM
Crude Rises as Fed Tapers Stimulus
18 December 2013
, by  Mark Shenk (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2013-12-18/wti-crude-gains-as-u-s-supply-seen-falling.html


Brent crude $110.30 and U.S. crude $98.96 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Brent crude $111.60 and U.S. crude $98.71 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal December 23, 2013, 03:38:37 PM
Brent crude $111.60 and U.S. crude $98.71 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1

Brent crude $110.11 and U.S. crude $92.78 December 01, 2013
Brent crude $111.86 and U.S. crude $96.74 December 04, 2013
Brent crude $112.03 and U.S. crude $97.56 December 05, 2013
Brent crude $111.75 and U.S. crude $97.82 December 07, 2013
Brent crude $110.30 and U.S. crude $98.96 December 19, 2013
Brent crude $111.60 and U.S. crude $98.71 A Barrel Now


Brent Oil didn't move much this month.
: Brent crude $112.00 and U.S. crude $99.17 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal December 24, 2013, 10:02:06 PM
Brent crude $112.00 and U.S. crude $99.17 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Re: Brent crude $112.00 and U.S. crude $99.17 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal December 25, 2013, 01:27:07 AM
On This Day In History, Gas Prices Have Never Been Higher
24 December 2013
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-24/day-history-gas-prices-have-never-been-higher


Brent crude $112.00 and U.S. crude $99.17 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Brent crude $112.40 and U.S. crude $100.25 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal December 27, 2013, 11:03:36 AM
Crude Rises Above $100 as U.S. Supplies Fall
27 December 2013
, by Moming Zhou and Mark Shenk (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2013-12-27/crude-rises-above-100-as-u-s-supplies-fall.html


Brent crude $112.40 and U.S. crude $100.25 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Re: Brent crude $112.40 and U.S. crude $100.25 A Barrel Now
: Wise_Old_Man December 27, 2013, 11:08:18 AM
With the insane surplus of Oil we have in the U.S. these prices are totally unbelievable!  With the huge Oil Boom in North Dakota we should be seeing $30/barrel pricing of crude.  I am so tired of the Oil Conglomerates falsely inflating oil prices. 
: The Shale Oil Party Is Ending, Phibro's Andy Hall Warns
: Letsbereal December 29, 2013, 11:18:35 PM
The Shale Oil Party Is Ending, Phibro's Andy Hall Warns
29 December 2013
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-29/shale-oil-party-ending-phibros-andy-hall-warns


Brent crude $112.42 and U.S. crude $100.23 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: U.S. Crude Imports Fall to Lowest Level Since 1998
: Letsbereal January 04, 2014, 06:33:20 AM
U.S. Crude Imports Fall to Lowest Level Since 1998
3 January 2014
, by Moming Zhou (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-01-03/u-s-crude-imports-fall-to-lowest-level-since-1998.html


Brent crude $107.03 and U.S. crude $94.31 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Brent crude $107.45 and U.S. crude $93.96 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal January 07, 2014, 07:32:45 PM
Brent crude $107.45 and U.S. crude $93.96 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1


- Oil down

- Inflation down so disinflation

Economic recovery? That’s BS because in that case oil would go up and inflation would go up and that’s clearly not what’s happening.

Disinflation will mean more QE which will drive up stock prices again and oil.
: Brent crude $107.49 and U.S. crude $92.89 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal January 11, 2014, 12:51:23 AM
Brent crude $107.49 and U.S. crude $92.89 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Brent crude $107.23 and U.S. crude $94.09 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal January 15, 2014, 11:16:42 AM
Brent crude $107.23 and U.S. crude $94.09 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: OPEC report confirmed that global oil demand isn’t strong
: Letsbereal January 17, 2014, 06:06:44 PM
WTI Crude Slips as OPEC Forecasts Weaker Demand
16 January 2014
, by Moming Zhou (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-01-16/wti-crude-fluctuates-after-jobless-data.html

“The OPEC report confirmed that global oil demand isn’t strong,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at the Price Futures Group in Chicago. “We have ample supplies.


A so-called ‘recovery’ with continuing weak global oil demand isn’t really a ‘recovery, is it.


Brent crude $106.29 and U.S. crude $94.11 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Brent crude $107.43 and U.S. crude $94.42 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal January 21, 2014, 05:43:12 AM
Brent crude $107.43 and U.S. crude $94.42 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Hedge Funds Cut Brent Crude Net-Longs to Lowest in 14 Months
: Letsbereal January 21, 2014, 12:57:29 PM
Hedge Funds Cut Brent Crude Net-Longs to Lowest in 14 Months
20 January 2014
, by Grant Smith (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-01-20/hedge-funds-cut-brent-crude-net-longs-to-lowest-in-14-months-1-.html


Brent crude $106.98 and U.S. crude $94.64 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Oil tops $97 for highest close in over three weeks
: Letsbereal January 23, 2014, 04:17:53 PM
Oil tops $97 for highest close in over three weeks
23 January 2014
, by Myra P. Saefong and Victor Reklaitis - San Francisco (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-futures-fall-on-weak-china-data-2014-01-23


Brent crude $107.56 and U.S. crude $97.28 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Brent crude $108.00 and U.S. crude $97.80 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal January 30, 2014, 06:43:23 AM
Brent crude $108.00 and U.S. crude $97.80 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: OPEC January Crude Output Falls to Two-Year Low in Survey
: Letsbereal January 30, 2014, 03:54:41 PM
OPEC January Crude Output Falls to Two-Year Low in Survey
30 January 2014
, by Mark Shenk (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-01-30/exxon-mobil-net-income-declines-as-quarterly-output-slips.html

OPEC crude production dropped to the lowest level in more than two years in January, led by a decline in Angolan output, a Bloomberg survey showed.

Output by the 12-member Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries decreased 151,000 barrels to an average 29.888 million barrels a day from 30.039 million in December, the survey of oil companies, producers and analysts showed.

It was the least since June 2011. The December total was revised 84,000 barrels a day higher because of changes to the Saudi Arabian, Kuwaiti and Iraqi estimates.

Angola crude production tumbled by 258,000 barrels to 1.48 million this month, the least since the country joined OPEC in 2007.

Output declined because of maintenance at the Plutonio offshore field operated by BP Plc.

Saudi Arabia, the group’s biggest producer, curbed output by 100,000 barrels a day to 9.7 million.

The desert kingdom pumped 10 million barrels a day in September, the most in monthly data going back to 1989.

Libyan output rose by 260,000 barrels a day to 470,000 in January, the first increase since March.

The country pumped 210,000 barrels a day in November and December, the lowest level since September 2011.


OPEC to Trim Shipments as Demand Declines, Oil Movements Says
30 January 2014
, by Natasha Doff (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-01-30/opec-to-trim-shipments-as-demand-declines-oil-movements-says.html

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will reduce shipments through to mid-February as western demand falls with the end of winter in the northern hemisphere, according to Oil Movements.


Brent crude $107.91 and U.S. crude $98.08 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: WTI Drops a Second Day on Concern China Demand May Slow
: Letsbereal February 03, 2014, 08:34:47 AM
WTI Drops a Second Day on Concern China Demand May Slow
3 February 2014
, by Grant Smith (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-02-02/wti-crude-drops-a-second-day-as-china-manufacturing-gauge-slips.html


Brent crude $105.99 and U.S. crude $97.40 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Oil settles above $100, logs year’s highest close
: Letsbereal February 10, 2014, 07:45:39 PM
Oil settles above $100, logs year’s highest close - Oil marks fifth-session rise; natural-gas prices down four sessions in a row
10 February 2014
, by Myra P. Saefong and Carla Mozee - San Francisco (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crude-oil-futures-edge-back-from-100-a-barrel-2014-02-10


Brent crude $108.42 and U.S. crude $100.04 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Shell Sees Stable Oil Price for 20 Years With Volatility Bursts
: Letsbereal February 14, 2014, 04:04:54 PM
Shell Sees Stable Oil Price for 20 Years With Volatility Bursts
13 February 2014
, by Mikael Holter (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-02-13/shell-sees-stable-oil-price-for-20-years-with-volatility-bursts.html

Royal Dutch Shell, Europe’s biggest oil company, said crude prices would on average probably remain at current levels or rise steadily for the next two decades, with periods of volatility.

“There are still tensions in the system that will lead to more of a flat outlook,” Vice President for Global Business Environment Jeremy Bentham said in an Oslo interview today.

“So the current type of levels continuing, but with volatilities.”

Brent oil averaged more $100 a barrel for the past three years, tripling from its 2008 low as the world economy recovered from the financial crisis.

In Shell’s “tighter” supply scenarios, crude prices could steadily increase over the 20 next years, while still going through periods of volatility that could see Brent falling to $70 a barrel, Bentham said.

While oil companies are cutting their investments plans to strengthen returns amid falling profitability, spending reductions are not the most important factor influencing the oil price, Bentham said.

Increased Iranian exports as sanctions are lifted, Iraq’s ability to boost its production and Libya’s capacity to limit output shutdowns are factors “bigger in totality than the trimming of the investments,” he said.

The possibility of weakening demand growth in emerging markets may be offset by a strengthening U.S. economy, he said.

“Economic development and particularly in the emerging nations, is the biggest driver of demand change,” Bentham said. “That has an important impact on the commodity prices.”


Brent crude $109.01 and U.S. crude $100.33 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: IEA cuts oil-demand forecast for emerging markets
: Letsbereal February 15, 2014, 09:35:21 PM
IEA cuts oil-demand forecast for emerging markets
13 February 2014
, by Benoit Faucon (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/iea-cuts-oil-demand-forecast-for-emerging-markets-2014-02-13

A top energy watchdog Thursday cut its oil-consumption forecast for emerging markets this quarter but said lost demand would be made up for by a resurgent U.S. economy in the course of the year.

The views echo a warning Wednesday by oil producers that economic turmoil in Asia and Latin America could dent their appetite for crude oil.

In its closely watched monthly oil market report, the International Energy Agency, which represents some of the world’s largest oil consumers, said it trimmed its oil-demand forecast for developing countries by 80,000 barrels a day in the first quarter.

Read about how oil futures are moving Thursday.

The IEA blamed an “increase in the cost of doing business as interest rates have been hiked in many countries in an effort to defend domestic currencies.”

In January, a sudden drop in the value of the Argentine peso—after the central bank stopped shoring it up—led to a broad selloff in emerging-market currencies.

Still, the IEA Thursday slightly increased its overall demand forecast for the year by 125,000 barrels a day to 92.6 million barrels a day, citing improving prospects for the U.S. economy.

Oil producers in the Middle East and Africa have set their eyes on emerging markets, notably in Asia, after being increasingly squeezed out from the U.S. by booming shale-oil production.

In a report Wednesday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries sounded out similarly contrasting views.

It said oil-demand prospects in Asia and Latin America could be lowered because of their economic problems but upgrade its overall forecast on a robust U.S. recovery.


Brent crude $109.07 and U.S. crude $100.40 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: U.S. Fuel Demand Highest for January Since 2008, API Says
: Letsbereal February 21, 2014, 01:51:34 AM
U.S. Fuel Demand Highest for January Since 2008, API Says
20 February 2014
, by Mark Shenk (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-02-20/u-s-fuel-demand-highest-for-january-since-2008-api-says.html


Always a good reason for oil to stay high.

Brent crude $110.24 and U.S. crude $102.70 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Oil futures gain more than 5% for the month
: Letsbereal March 01, 2014, 04:15:20 AM
Oil futures gain more than 5% for the month
28 February 2014
, by Myra P. Saefong and William L. Watts - San Francisco (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-maintains-losses-on-weaker-us-growth-2014-02-28


Always a good reason for oil to stay high.

Brent crude $109.15 and U.S. crude $102.76 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Brent crude $110.83 and U.S. crude $104.37 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal March 03, 2014, 02:45:13 PM
WTI Crude Rises to Five-Month High on Ukraine
3 March 2014
, by Moming Zhou (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-03-03/brent-crude-rises-to-two-month-high-on-ukraine.html


There's always a good reason for oil to stay high.

Brent crude $110.83 and U.S. crude $104.37 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Brent crude $106.65 and U.S. crude $101.06 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal April 06, 2014, 07:02:15 AM
WTI, Brent Crudes Gain as Payrolls Increase
4 April 2014
, by Mark Shenk (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-04-04/wti-brent-crudes-gain-as-payrolls-increase.html


There's always a good reason for oil to stay high.

Brent crude $106.65 and U.S. crude $101.06 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: U.S. Gasoline Prices Rise to Eight-Month High in Lundberg Survey
: Letsbereal April 07, 2014, 06:30:52 PM
Hedge Funds Buy Crude as U.S. Gasoline Pump Prices Jump
7 April 2014
, by Moming Zhou (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-04-06/speculators-cut-bullish-oil-bets-by-most-in-nine-months.html

U.S. Gasoline Prices Rise to Eight-Month High in Lundberg Survey
7 April 2014
, by Barbara Powell and Eliot Caroom (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-04-06/u-s-gasoline-prices-rise-to-3-6065-a-gallon-in-lundberg-survey.html

The average price for regular gasoline at U.S. pumps rose 4.9 cents in the past two weeks to $3.6065 a gallon, the highest since July 26, according to Lundberg Survey Inc.

The survey covers the period ended April 4. It’s based on information obtained at about 2,500 filling stations by the Camarillo, California-based company.

The average retail price is 4 cents lower than a year ago, Lundberg said.


There's always a good reason for oil to stay high.

Brent crude $105.99 and U.S. crude $100.69 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: EIA Increases 2014 WTI Price Forecast to $95.60 a Barrel
: Letsbereal April 08, 2014, 01:02:43 PM
EIA Increases 2014 WTI Price Forecast to $95.60 a Barrel
8 April 2014
, by Moming Zhou (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-04-08/eia-increases-2014-wti-price-forecast-to-95-60-a-barrel.html

The U.S. increased its price forecast for West Texas Intermediate crude for 2014 and reduced the estimate for Brent.

WTI will average $95.60 a barrel this year, the Energy Information Administration said in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook.

That’s up from March’s estimate of $95.33. Brent, the North Sea-based grade, will reach $104.88, down from last month’s $104.92.

WTI will average $89.75 in 2015 and Brent $100.92, according to the EIA, the Energy Department’s statistical arm.

Those estimates are unchanged from the previous month. Brent’s average premium to WTI would be $9.28 in 2014 and $11.17 in 2015.

The EIA decreased its forecast for this year’s U.S. crude output to 8.37 million barrels a day from 8.39 million.

That level of 2014 production would be up 13% from 2013.

The demand forecasts were 18.9 million for the U.S. and 91.61 million for the world versus last month’s 18.89 million and 91.6 million.


There's always a good reason for oil to stay high.

Brent crude $107.14 and U.S. crude $102.22 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: OPEC Plans to Make Room for Extra Oil From Iran, Iraq, Libya
: Letsbereal April 09, 2014, 09:54:56 AM
OPEC Plans to Make Room for Extra Oil From Iran, Iraq, Libya
9 April 2014
, by Wael Mahdi and Nayla Razzouk (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-04-09/opec-plans-to-make-room-for-extra-oil-from-iran-iraq-libya.html

OPEC, which supplies 40% of the world’s oil, will accommodate additional output from members Iraq, Iran and Libya, Secretary-General Abdalla El-Badri said, without explaining how it will do so under the group’s ceiling.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will wait until 2015 to discuss output targets with Iraq, which currently operates outside the production-quota system for each of the group’s other 11 member countries, El-Badri told reporters today in Doha, Qatar.

OPEC foresees gradual increases from Iraq and Iran, while Libya is capable of boosting output by as much as 1 million barrels within a month, he said.

“There is no problem for OPEC to absorb any production increment from Iraq and Iran in 2014,” El-Badri said.

“When Libya output comes back, we will accommodate it because its production is in our numbers.”

OPEC is set to boost output as its second-biggest producer Iraq pumps at a 35-year high and Libya’s government makes progress in talks with rebels who control fields and export terminals in the country’s oil-rich east.

Sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program have constrained the country’s production and sales of crude. OPEC plans to meet on June 11 in Vienna to review its output target, now at 30 million barrels a day.

World Demand

Global demand will increase by 1.1 million barrels a day in 2014, and the group will produce up to 30 million barrels a day for the rest of the year, El-Badri said.

“Of course, ministers can change that when they meet,” he said.

OPEC pumped 30.3 million barrels a day in March, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

The group has yet to determine how to make room for potential output increases from Iraq, Iran and Libya, El-Badri said.

“We will discuss that when they come to the point to discuss their increase,” he said.

Iraq, with the world’s fifth-largest oil reserves, is rebuilding its energy industry after decades of war and economic sanctions.

Helped by investors including Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDSA) and Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM), it leap-frogged Iran in 2012 to rank second in OPEC, after Saudi Arabia.

Iraq pumped 3.4 million a day in March, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, and targets 9 million a day.

Iran raised production to 2.9 million barrels a day last month, an increase of 65,000 barrels from February, the data show. Libya, which produced 250,000 barrels a day in March, holds Africa’s biggest crude reserves.

Libya’s government reached an agreement with eastern rebels on April 6 to reopen two oil ports.

OPEC’s spare production capacity is at an adequate level this year, and producers and consumers are happy with current oil prices, El-Badri said.

The price for OPEC’s basket of crudes rose $1, or 1%, yesterday to $103.16 a barrel, the group’s secretariat reported today.

The group’s 12 members are Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela.


There's always a good reason for oil to stay high.

Brent crude $107.82 and U.S. crude $102.59 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Brent crude $107.88 and U.S. crude $103.46 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal April 09, 2014, 03:13:08 PM
There’s always a good reason for oil to stay high.

Brent crude $107.88 and U.S. crude $103.46 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: OPEC output drops; lowers 2014 forecast for its oil
: Letsbereal April 10, 2014, 08:29:10 AM
OPEC output drops; lowers 2014 forecast for its oil
10 April 2014
, by Sarah Kent - London (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/opec-output-drops-lowers-2014-forecast-for-its-oil-2014-04-10

OPEC’s oil output tumbled to its lowest level this year in March, the cartel of some of the world’s biggest oil producers said Thursday.

Production by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which supplies more than a third of the oil consumed globally each day, fell by over half a million barrels a day last month to 29.6 million barrels a day, the group said in its monthly oil market report.

A steep drop in Iraq’s oil output of nearly 300,000 barrels a day led the decline, though there was also a substantial downturn in Angola, Libya and Saudi Arabia last month.

The sharp pullback in Iraq’s oil production to 3.2 million barrels a day is a disappointing decline after the country’s oil output rose to its highest level in 35 years in February.

Iraq has ambitious plans to increase its oil production after years of sanctions under Saddam Hussein’s rule and the fallout from the second Gulf War hobbled the industry.

However, infrastructure constraints have slowed the development of several oil fields and led many analysts to question whether February’s surge in output was sustainable.

Elsewhere, Angola’s oil production fell by 150,000 barrels a day in March.

Libya’s oil output declined by 118,000 barrels a day as blockades of key ports in the country’s east by rebels seeking greater autonomy continued to take their toll on the country’s oil sector.

OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia also cut its production by 81,000 barrels a day to 9.7 million barrels a day last month.

Meanwhile, supply from outside OPEC is expected to continue booming this year, led by production growth in Canada and the U.S.

OPEC tweaked higher its forecast for non-OPEC supply growth this year to 1.37 million barrels a day, an addition of 60,000 barrels a day from its previous forecast.

The cartel also lowered the amount of demand it expects for its oil this year by 100,000 barrels a day to 29.6 million barrels a day.


There’s always a good reason for oil to stay high.

Brent crude $107.40 and U.S. crude $103.31 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Brent crude $109.76 and U.S. crude $104.59 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal April 19, 2014, 04:04:25 PM
Brent Oil Climbs to Six-Week High on Ukraine Crisis
16 April 2014
, by Mark Shenk (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-04-16/brent-oil-rises-to-110-on-ukraine.html


Most interesting facts.

Customers boosted oilfield spending fivefold in the past decade, while output grew only 15%.

Producers are likely to increase capital spending 6% this year to a record $723 billion.

FROM: Schlumberger Boosts Profit as Oil Explorers Seek Technology Edge http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-04-17/schlumberger-boosts-profit-as-oil-explorers-seek-technology-edge.html


There’s always a good reason for oil to stay high.

Brent crude $109.76 and U.S. crude $104.59 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Docu: The Secret of the Seven Sisters - About the history of oil cartels
: Letsbereal April 20, 2014, 07:40:17 AM
Documentary about the history of oil cartels and how geo-political relations are dominated by oil:

The Secret of the Seven Sisters 1of4, Desert Storms https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_TXG70xAnSU

The Secret of the Seven Sisters 2of4, The Black El Dorado https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LTuzZ920AQs

The Secret of the Seven Sisters 3of4, The Dancing Bear https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N-Lub2ecXGM

The Secret of the Seven Sisters 4of4, A Time for Lies https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i3tGUjGl8AA


There’s always a good reason for oil to stay high.

Brent crude $109.76 and U.S. crude $104.59 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Oil prices ready for highest close in seven weeks
: Letsbereal April 21, 2014, 12:37:15 PM
Oil prices ready for highest close in seven weeks
21 April 2014
, by Myra P. Saefong and Victor Reklaitis - San Francisco (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-waver-near-6-week-high-2014-04-21


Saudi Economy Grows at Fastest Pace Since 2012 as Oil Climbs
21 April 2014
, by Dana El Baltaji and Zoya Shilova (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-04-21/saudi-economy-grows-at-fastest-pace-since-2012-as-oil-climbs.html

The average price of West Texas Intermediate oil during the fourth quarter was $97.68 a barrel compared with $88.29 a barrel a year ago.


There’s always a good reason for oil to stay high.

Brent crude $109.97 and U.S. crude $104.35 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Brent Rises With WTI as Further Sanctions on Russia Threatened
: Letsbereal April 27, 2014, 10:14:57 PM
Brent Rises With WTI as Further Sanctions on Russia Threatened
27 April 2014
, by Ben Sharples (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-04-27/brent-rises-with-wti-as-further-sanctions-on-russia-threatened.html


There’s always a good reason for oil to stay high.

Brent crude $109.84 and U.S. crude $100.91 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Brent crude $110.09 and U.S. crude $101.44 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal April 28, 2014, 04:45:19 AM
There’s always a good reason for oil to stay high.

Brent crude $110.09 and U.S. crude $101.44 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: EIA Proposes Crude Gravity Survey
: Letsbereal May 07, 2014, 07:46:57 AM
EIA Proposes Crude Gravity Survey
6 May 2014
, by Dan Murtaugh (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-05-06/eia-proposes-crude-gravity-survey.html


There’s always a good reason for oil to stay high.

Brent crude $107.35 and U.S. crude $100.36 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Everything You Wanted To Know About Global Oil Fundamentals
: Letsbereal May 11, 2014, 09:11:23 AM
Everything You Wanted To Know About Global Oil Fundamentals (But Were Afraid To Ask)

OIL Slide Show http://smg.photobucket.com/user/youricarma/slideshow/OIL

Source (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-10/everything-you-wanted-know-about-global-oil-fundamentals-were-afraid-ask)

There’s always a good reason for oil to stay high.

Brent crude $107.97 and U.S. crude $100.03 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: OPEC Sees Balanced Oil Market in 2014 as Losses Prevent Surplus
: Letsbereal May 13, 2014, 05:26:13 PM
OPEC Sees Balanced Oil Market in 2014 as Losses Prevent Surplus
13 May 2014
, by Grant Smith (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-05-13/opec-sees-balanced-oil-market-in-2014-as-losses-prevent-surplus.html

The global oil market will remain “fairly balanced” in 2014 as supply disruptions including delays at the Kashagan field in Kazakhstan prevent the build-up of a surplus, according to OPEC.


There’s always a good reason for oil to stay high.

Brent crude $109.44 and U.S. crude $101.94 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Where's The Cheapest (And Most Expensive) Gas In The World?
: Letsbereal May 14, 2014, 10:06:16 PM
Where's The Cheapest (And Most Expensive) Gas In The World?
14 May 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-14/wheres-cheapest-and-most-expensive-gas-world


There’s always a good reason for oil to stay high.

Brent crude $110.11 and U.S. crude $102.06 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: There’s always a good reason for oil to stay high
: Letsbereal May 18, 2014, 03:39:04 PM
Brent Crude Set for Weekly Gain Amid Ukraine Tension
16 May 2014
, by Grant Smith and Ben Sharples (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-05-15/wti-crude-trades-near-three-day-low-as-industrial-output-slows.html

Brent crude headed for its first weekly advance this month amid speculation that escalating tension in Ukraine may disrupt supplies from Russia, the world’s biggest energy exporter.

West Texas Intermediate was set for a second weekly gain after Cushing stockpiles fell.



There’s always a good reason for oil to stay high.

Brent crude $109.68 and U.S. crude $102.18 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Brent crude $110.39 and U.S. crude $103.69 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal May 22, 2014, 08:31:57 PM
There’s always a good reason for oil to stay high.

Brent crude $110.39 and U.S. crude $103.69 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: WTI Oil Swings as U.S. Crude Stockpiles Seen Rising Near Record
: Letsbereal May 27, 2014, 08:18:00 PM
WTI Oil Falls From Five-Week High on Ample Stockpiles
27 May 2014
, by Mark Shenk (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-05-27/wti-oil-falls-from-five-week-high-on-ample-stockpiles.html

WTI Oil Swings as U.S. Crude Stockpiles Seen Rising Near Record
27 May 2014
, by Ben Sharples (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-05-27/wti-oil-swings-as-u-s-crude-stockpiles-seen-rising-near-record.html

Hedge Funds Buy Oil as Supply Drops Before Memorial Day
26 May 2014
, by Moming Zhou (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-05-25/hedge-funds-buy-oil-as-supply-drops-before-memorial-day-energy.html


There’s always a good reason for oil to stay high.

Brent crude $110.17 and U.S. crude $104.09 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Why Are Food Prices So High?
: Letsbereal May 28, 2014, 01:16:57 PM
Why Are Food Prices So High?
28 May 2014
, by Charles Hugh-Smith (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-28/why-are-food-prices-so-high


There’s always a good reason for oil to stay high.

Brent crude $109.81 and U.S. crude $103.42 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Re: Why Are Food Prices So High?
: Geolibertarian May 28, 2014, 01:31:18 PM
Why Are Food Prices So High?
28 May 2014, by Charles Hugh-Smith (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-28/why-are-food-prices-so-high

Just as I expected, the above article by Zero Hedge doesn't even mention food speculation, let alone acknowledge the primary causative role it plays.

http://forum.prisonplanet.com/index.php?topic=204193.0 (http://forum.prisonplanet.com/index.php?topic=204193.0) (Who or what is primarily to blame for the rise in food prices?)

The same ideologues who never mention food speculation are the same ones who, in 2008, would mention the $1.4 trillion sub-prime mortgage bubble a thousand times before mentioning the quadrillion-dollar derivatives bubble even once (since the former allowed them to blame the poor while the latter didn't).
: Re: Why Are Food Prices So High?
: Letsbereal May 31, 2014, 09:47:33 PM
Just as I expected, the above article by Zero Hedge doesn't even mention food speculation, let alone acknowledge the primary causative role it plays.

http://forum.prisonplanet.com/index.php?topic=204193.0 (http://forum.prisonplanet.com/index.php?topic=204193.0) (Who or what is primarily to blame for the rise in food prices?)

The same ideologues who never mention food speculation are the same ones who, in 2008, would mention the $1.4 trillion sub-prime mortgage bubble a thousand times before mentioning the quadrillion-dollar derivatives bubble even once (since the former allowed them to blame the poor while the latter didn't).

Still Think The Fed Isn't Fueling Inflation?
30 May 2013
, by Charles Hugh-Smith (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-30/still-think-fed-isnt-fueling-inflation


Charles Hugh-Smith's conclusion isn't necessarily my conclusion (yet) because I still am studying the subject and I am aware of the the arguments presented.

I will give my best shot on the question what the primary cause of high oil prices might be later.

There are even some arguing that from the point of view of production costs oil prices are even to low which may point in the direction of dollar devaluation being the main cause of high oil prices while I am fully aware of the speculative element in play.

But is that the main cause as you point out?
: There’s always a good reason for oil to stay high
: Letsbereal June 04, 2014, 09:41:55 AM
WTI Gains for Second Day as U.S. Stockpiles Shrink
4 June 2014
, by Ben Sharples and Grant Smith (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-06-03/wti-oil-advances-a-second-day-amid-declining-u-s-crude-supplies.html

There’s always a good reason for oil to stay high.

Brent crude $109.21 and U.S. crude $103.36 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Oil Surges To Highest Since September As Algos Finally Find Iraq On The Map
: Letsbereal June 12, 2014, 05:49:49 PM
Oil Surges To Highest Since September As Algos Finally Find Iraq On The Map
12 June 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-12/oil-surges-highest-september-algos-finally-find-iraq-map

Summer Gas Prices Highest Since 2011 As Oil Hits 9-Month Highs
12 June 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-12/summer-gas-prices-highest-2011-oil-hits-9-month-highs

Oil Soars, Stocks Slide On Fears Of Iraq 3.0
12 June 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-12/virtual-currency-slides-fbi-prepares-dump-144341-silk-road-bitcoins

There’s always a good reason for oil to stay high.

Brent crude $113.22 and U.S. crude $106.86 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Brent crude $113.47 and U.S. crude $106.91 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal June 17, 2014, 12:28:45 PM
Gasoline at U.S. Pumps Set to Hit Six-Year Seasonal High
17 June 2014
, by Lynn Doan and Moming Zhou (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-06-17/gasoline-at-u-s-pumps-set-to-hit-six-year-seasonal-high.html


There’s always a good reason for oil to stay high.

Brent crude $113.47 and U.S. crude $106.91 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Brent Trades Near Nine-Month High on Iraq Conflict
: Letsbereal June 19, 2014, 05:45:54 AM
Brent Trades Near Nine-Month High on Iraq Conflict
19 June 2014
, by Grant Smith (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-06-19/wti-climbs-as-u-s-stockpiles-fall-while-iraq-fighting-escalates.html


There’s always a good reason for oil to stay high.

Brent crude $114.37 and U.S. crude $106.17 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Brent oil tops $115 a barrel on Iraq worries - WTI lags behind on U.S. supplies
: Letsbereal June 19, 2014, 02:50:59 PM
Brent oil tops $115 a barrel on Iraq worries - Nymex WTI lags behind on heavy U.S. supplies
19 June 2014
, by William L. Watts - New York (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/brent-oil-tops-115-a-barrel-on-iraq-worries-2014-06-19


There’s always a good reason for oil to stay high.

Brent crude $115.01 and U.S. crude $106.51 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Independence Day Pump Prices May Hit 6-Year High on Iraq
: Letsbereal June 24, 2014, 10:33:31 AM
Independence Day Pump Prices May Hit 6-Year High on Iraq
24 June 2014
, by Dan Murtaugh (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-06-23/gasoline-in-u-s-at-highest-early-summer-level-since-2008.html

WTI, Brent Crudes Trade Near Nine-Month Highs on Iraq
24 June 2014
, by Mark Shenk (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-06-24/wti-brent-crudes-trade-near-nine-month-highs-on-iraq.html


There’s always a good reason for oil to stay high.

Brent crude $114.50 and U.S. crude $106.32 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: OPEC June Output Rises as Members Fill in for Iraq Loss
: Letsbereal June 30, 2014, 01:26:41 PM
OPEC June Output Rises as Members Fill in for Iraq Loss http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-06-30/opec-june-output-rises-as-members-fill-in-for-iraq-loss.html

Kurd Oil Sales Seen by Deutsche Bank Gaining Market Acceptance http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-06-30/kurd-oil-sales-seen-by-deutsche-bank-gaining-market-acceptance.html

Libya’s Biggest Oil Port Es Sider May Open in August, Rebels Say http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-06-29/libya-s-biggest-oil-port-es-sider-may-open-in-august-rebels-say.html

Scotland Holds Billions of Barrels of Shale Oil, Report Says http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-06-30/scotland-has-billions-of-barrels-of-shale-deposits-report-says.html


There’s always a good reason for oil to stay high.

Brent crude $112.21 and U.S. crude $104.85 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: There are more factors to oil and the dollar than ‘peak oil’
: Letsbereal July 02, 2014, 05:54:15 AM
Just as I expected, the above article by Zero Hedge doesn't even mention food speculation, let alone acknowledge the primary causative role it plays.

http://forum.prisonplanet.com/index.php?topic=204193.0 (http://forum.prisonplanet.com/index.php?topic=204193.0) (Who or what is primarily to blame for the rise in food prices?)

The same ideologues who never mention food speculation are the same ones who, in 2008, would mention the $1.4 trillion sub-prime mortgage bubble a thousand times before mentioning the quadrillion-dollar derivatives bubble even once (since the former allowed them to blame the poor while the latter didn't).

There are more factors to oil and the dollar than ‘peak oil’ if we accept that for the sake of argument, so:

- Peak Oil, oil prices go up http://crudeoilpeak.info/oil-prices-started-to-skyrocket-when-one-quarter-of-global-supplies-went-into-irreversible-decline

- Dollar Devaluation, oil prices go up

- Oil Production Costs have gone up, higher oil prices are needed for break even production and devolpement/investment costs.

- U.S. War Pressure, creates conflicts which block oil production and create great energy insecurity

- Oil Speculation, creates bigger price spikes even with lower oil demand


My God, do you know what this means? http://youtu.be/SR5BfQ4rEqQ?t=1m14s

It means that oil prices are likely to stay around $100 now but only can go higher to cover increasing procuction costs, a devaluating dollar and last but not least, ‘peak oil’.

It won’t be long until OPEC announces that ‘they feel comfortable’ with $100 a barrel for the time being.

The average price of West Texas Intermediate oil during the fourth quarter was $97.68 a barrel compared with $88.29 a barrel a year ago.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-04-21/saudi-economy-grows-at-fastest-pace-since-2012-as-oil-climbs.html

WTI will average $95.60 a barrel this year, the Energy Information Administration said in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook.

That’s up from March’s estimate of $95.33. Brent, the North Sea-based grade, will reach $104.88, down from last month’s $104.92.

WTI will average $89.75 in 2015 and Brent $100.92, according to the EIA, the Energy Department’s statistical arm.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-04-08/eia-increases-2014-wti-price-forecast-to-95-60-a-barrel.html

Legend Warns Of World Economic Crash & Oil Spike To $250
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2014/6/19_Legend_Warns_Of_World_Economic_Crash_%26_Oil_Spike_To_%24250.html


There’s always a good reason for oil to stay high.

Brent crude $111.96 and U.S. crude $105.28 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Libya Reopening Two Oil Ports After Taking Control From Rebels
: Letsbereal July 03, 2014, 09:09:40 AM
Libya Reopening Two Oil Ports After Taking Control From Rebels
2 July 2014
, by Ben Sharples and Saleh Sarrar (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-07-03/libya-reopening-two-oil-ports-after-taking-control-from-rebels.html

Excerpt:

Libya is reopening two crude export terminals in the country’s east after taking control from rebels who have blocked oil shipments for the past year.

It occupied the ports in the region at the end of July 2013, demanding an oil-revenue-sharing agreement to make up for the neglect the area experienced under Muammar Qaddafi’s 42-year rule.

Es Sider and Ras Lanuf, which have combined capacity of 560,000 barrels a day, will open after an agreement was reached with rebels, Ahmed al-Amin, a government spokesman, said by phone.

The group handed over the oil ports of Hariga and Zueitina after the accord in exchange for amnesty and salary payments for the guards, as well as an audit of the National Oil Corp.’s oil sales since the overthrow of Qaddafi.


Brent in Contango First Time Since April on Libya Ports
3 July 2014
, by Grant Smith (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-07-03/brent-in-contango-first-time-since-april-on-libya-ports.html


There’s always a good reason for oil to stay high.

Brent crude $110.74 and U.S. crude $104.01 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: July 4 Gasoline at 6-Year High on Iraq
: Letsbereal July 03, 2014, 10:10:18 AM
July 4 Gasoline at 6-Year High on Iraq: Chart of the Day
3 July 2014
, by Lynn Doan (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-07-03/july-4-gasoline-at-6-year-high-on-iraq-chart-of-the-day.html

U.S. drivers will pay the most for gasoline over the July 4 holiday weekend in six years after the conflict in Iraq boosted crude oil last month, preventing the typical June decline in pump prices.

The CHART OF THE DAY shows how gasoline at $3.67 a gallon is the highest for this time of year since 2008.

Retail prices rose 0.3 cent in June, compared with a average drop of 20.8 cents during the month in the past three years.

While prices have slipped in the past five days, they probably won’t fall much more before the weekend as almost 35 million people hit the road, according to AAA.

“I’m not expecting any big changes,” Michael Green, a spokesman for Heathrow, Florida-based AAA, the biggest U.S. motoring organization, said by telephone from Washington.

“We might see a drop of a few tenths of a cent.”

Regular gasoline in the U.S. costs 19.2 cents a gallon more than a year ago, dragged up by oil prices that jumped last month as fighting in Iraq threatened to cut off supplies from OPEC’s second-largest producer.

International benchmark Brent crude rose $2.95 a barrel in June, and settled at $111.24 a barrel yesterday.

The increase came just as the most people since 2007 made plans to travel over the July 4 holiday.

About 34.8 million people will drive 50 miles or more from home during the five days ending July 6, up from 34.1 million last year, AAA estimates.

“Last year, prices peaked around March, and now they’ve peaked basically in June,” Sean Hill, petroleum economist for the Energy Information Administration, the Energy Department’s statistical arm, said by telephone from Washington.

“This is all a function of what crude oil has done because of the Middle East.”


There’s always a good reason for oil to stay high.

Brent crude $110.73 and U.S. crude $103.87 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Genel’s Kurdistan Oil Production Jumps After Pipeline Opens
: Letsbereal July 03, 2014, 10:32:28 AM
Genel’s Kurdistan Oil Production Jumps After Pipeline Opens
3 July 2014
, by Will Kennedy (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-07-03/genel-s-kurdistan-oil-production-jumps-after-pipeline-opens.html

Genel Energy Plc (GENL), the oil explorer headed by former BP Plc Chief Executive Officer Tony Hayward, said production jumped in June after Iraq’s Kurdistan region opened an export pipeline to Turkey.

Net production averaged 84,000 barrels a day in June compared with a 63,000 barrels-a-day rate for the whole of the first half, the company said today in a statement.

The opening of the pipeline in May allowed the autonomous region to increase exports through Turkey, bypassing the central Iraqi network.

While the government in Baghdad disputes Kurdistan’s right to sell oil directly, the regional administration has sold a cargo of oil at international prices and deposited the proceeds in a Turkish bank, Genel said.

Kurdistan, which plans a referendum on independence from Iraq, has largely remained calm as Islamist militants fight the central government for control of large parts of the country.

London-based Genel said its operations remain safe and secure.

“Genel Energy looks well placed either as an early producer or as an M&A target by one of the super-majors,” analysts at Bernstein Research said today.

“The upside is starting to look more compelling as the probability of a Kurdistan breakaway from Iraq increases.”

The shares gained as much as 2.4% to 1,048 pence in London, the highest in a month. The stock traded at 1,040 pence at 1:10 p.m. London time.

Production Forecast

Genel maintained a forecast for average output in 2014 of 60,000 to 70,000 barrels a day and said revenue would be $500 million to $600 million.

The pipeline will allow Kurdistan to raise exports to 200,000 to 250,000 barrels a day this month from 125,000 barrels early last month, Ashti Hawrami, the regional natural resources minister, said on June 18.

Daily shipments may increase to 400,000 barrels by the end of the year, he said.

Iraq, excluding the Kurdish region, holds 150 billion barrels of proven crude reserves in the world’s fifth-biggest deposits.

The Kurdistan regional government controls 45 billion barrels and has attracted international oil companies including Genel, Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) and Total SA (FP) with financial terms many see as more generous than those in the rest of the country.


Analysis: Why are the Kurds pushing for independence? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_nEmUz3F4mw

Iraq's Kurds push for independence referendum https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YUN5VGjeC_A

Will the Kurds break free of Iraq? -- Highlights https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nQqjZO4MoVY


Iraqi Kurd Chief Asks to Set Date on Independence Vote
3 July 2014
, by Khalid Al-Ansary (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-07-03/iraqi-kurd-leader-asks-lawmakers-to-set-independence-vote-date.html

Excerpt:

Iraqi Kurdish leader Massoud Barzani asked the parliament of the semi-autonomous Kurdish region to set a date for a referendum on independence, a lawmaker said.

Barzani also said disputed areas occupied by Kurdish armed forces last month, which include Iraq’s largest northern oil field, “will not go back to Baghdad’s control,” legislator Abdullah Jasim Rikani added, citing a speech Barzani made today.

The Kurds have been emboldened to push for independence by a Sunni insurgency that has frayed the central government’s authority. Shiite Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki rejected the Kurdish independence push yesterday, saying, “We don’t have anything called self-determination in our constitution.”

Maliki also demanded the Kurds give up the Kirkuk oil hub, which would make an independent Kurdish state more financially self-sufficient.

“Nobody has the right to take advantage of the current events to impose facts on the ground,” he said. The oil field at Kirkuk “must be returned,” he said.

As al-Qaeda-inspired rebels routed government forces, the Kurds’ Peshmerga force extended its control beyond the semi-autonomous Kurdish region in the north to disputed areas including Kirkuk.

The Sunni group now known as Islamic State has brought Iraq, OPEC’s second-biggest oil producer, to the brink of civil war again after seizing the urban centers of Mosul and Tikrit and other chunks of northern Iraq last month.


Enterprise Doubles Capacity on Seaway Crude Oil Pipeline
3 July 2014
, by Tina Davis and Lynn Doan (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-07-03/enterprise-doubles-capacity-on-seaway-crude-oil-pipeline.html


There’s always a good reason for oil to stay high.

Brent crude $110.78 and U.S. crude $103.81 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Big Oil is a Family Affair
: Letsbereal July 04, 2014, 08:47:51 AM
Big Oil is a Family Affair https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1m2PPRuzpLI

3 July 2014, RT


There’s always a good reason for oil to stay high.

Brent crude $110.81 and U.S. crude $103.83 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: EIA Raises Price Forecasts for WTI, Brent Crudes on Iraq
: Letsbereal July 09, 2014, 08:58:39 PM
EIA Raises Price Forecasts for WTI, Brent Crudes on Iraq
8 July 2014
, by Mark Shenk (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-07-08/eia-raises-price-forecasts-for-wti-brent-crudes-on-iraq.html

The U.S. Energy Information Administration increased its 2014 and 2015 price forecasts for West Texas Intermediate and Brent crudes because of the upsurge of violence in Iraq.

WTI will average $100.98 a barrel this year versus the June projection of $98.67, the EIA, the Energy Department’s statistical unit, said today in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook.

The U.S. benchmark grade will average $95.17 in 2015, up from the previous month’s estimate of $90.92.

The EIA boosted the forecast for Brent to $109.55 for this year from $107.82. Next year’s forecast was raised to $104.92 from $101.92.

“Price forecasts were raised primarily because the problems in Iraq caused us to scale back our production projections,” Tancred Lidderdale, an economist with the EIA in Washington who helped write the report, said in a telephone interview.

U.S. crude output is projected to rise to 8.46 million barrels a day this year and 9.28 million in 2015, up from 7.44 million last year.

That’s up from last month’s forecast of 8.42 million barrels a day this year and 9.27 million in 2015. U.S. crude production peaked at 9.6 million in 1970.

Liquid Fuels

Total production of liquid fuels, including those associated with natural gas output, will average 13.63 million barrels a day in 2014 and 14.6 million next year, the report showed.

That’s up from last month’s projections of 13.52 million this year and 14.51 million.

“Our projections for natural gas liquids have been rising steadily this year because plants are getting better at separating them and demand has grown,” Lidderdale said.

Horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, have unlocked supplies in shale formations in North Dakota, Texas and other states.

The department lowered its forecast for global oil consumption this year to 91.62 million barrels a day from 91.79 million estimated last month.

The forecast for 2015 production was reduced to 93.08 million from 93.12 million.

U.S. oil consumption will average 18.88 million barrels a day in 2014, down from last month’s forecast of 18.93 million.

Next year demand is projected to climb to 18.95 million. The previous 2015 estimate was 18.98 million.

Regular gasoline will average $3.54 a gallon at the pump this year, up from an estimate of $3.50 in June, the EIA said.


There’s always a good reason for oil to stay high.

Brent crude $108.09 and U.S. crude $101.97 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: OPEC Sees 2015 Demand for Its Crude as Least in Six Years
: Letsbereal July 10, 2014, 10:38:08 PM
OPEC Sees 2015 Demand for Its Crude as Least in Six Years
10 July 2014
, by Grant Smith (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-07-10/opec-sees-2015-demand-for-its-crude-as-least-in-six-years.html

Excerpt:

OPEC predicted that demand for its crude will decline in 2015 to the lowest in six years as supplies from other producers, led by the U.S., are more than enough to cover the increase in global consumption.

The need for crude from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will slide to 29.4 million barrels a day next year even as growth in world oil consumption accelerates, the group said in its first assessment of 2015.

That’s 300,000 a day less than OPEC’s 12 members pumped in June. It would be the third consecutive annual drop in demand for OPEC crude and the lowest since 2009.

The U.S. will provide about two-thirds of next year’s supply growth, OPEC said, amid a shale-oil surge that has made the U.S. the world’s biggest producer.

“Even if next year’s world economic growth turns out to be better than expected and crude oil demand outperforms expectations, OPEC will have sufficient supply to provide to the market,” the group’s Vienna-based secretariat said in the report.

The U.S. has overtaken Saudi Arabia and Russia as the world’s biggest oil producer as it taps shale formations in Texas and North Dakota by splitting apart rocks with high-pressure liquid, a process known as known as hydraulic fracturing, or fracking.

Oil prices have remained supported by threats to supplies in OPEC members such as Iraq and Libya, with the Brent benchmark’s loss this year limited to 2.3%.


There’s always a good reason for oil to stay high.

Brent crude $108.73 and U.S. crude $102.91 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Oil Demand Rising Fastest Since 2010 for IEA on China
: Letsbereal July 11, 2014, 09:13:40 AM
IEA: Little room for complacency in oil markets
11 July 2014
, by Sarah Kent - London (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/iea-little-room-for-complacency-in-oil-markets-2014-07-11

Geopolitical tensions and the shaky economic recovery means there is little room for complacency in oil market in the next 12 months, the International Energy Agency warned Friday.

In its closely watched monthly oil market report, the Paris-based energy watchdog forecast rising demand growth and a steady increase in supply from non-Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries for 2015.

It said global demand for oil will accelerate to 1.4 million barrels a day from 1.2 million barrels a day this year, while oil supply from outside OPEC will increase by around 1.2 million barrels a day, continuing the trend of robust non-OPEC production.

However, the IEA warned that the risks associated with its 2015 demand forecast are “particularly high” due to the uncertain global economic recovery and geopolitical tensions in a host of countries, including Iraq, Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela, are adding to the macroeconomic uncertainties.

The same political issues in major oil-producing countries also pose a threat to oil supply, it said.

Iraqi production fell by 260,000 barrels a day last month after violence in the north forced the closure of the country’s largest refinery and cut output from the giant Kirkuk field to a trickle.

Meanwhile, logistical issues and maintenance at Basrah cut output from Iraq’s southern fields by 160,000 barrels a day.

Increased supply from Saudi Arabia, Iran, Nigeria and Angola offset the decline in Iraq, leaving OPEC production broadly steady at 30 million barrels a day in June.


Oil Demand Rising Fastest Since 2010 for IEA on China
11 July 2014
, by Grant Smith (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-07-11/oil-demand-seen-by-iea-rising-fastest-since-10-on-china-growth.html

Excerpt:

Global oil demand will rise at the fastest pace in five years in 2015 as China leads gains in emerging economies, the International Energy Agency said.

World oil consumption will increase next year by 1.4 million barrels a day, the agency said in its first monthly report to assess 2015.

The rate of growth will be the fastest since 2010. It’s also higher than a projected increase of 1.2 million a day in supplies from outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, the agency said.

Demand growth will be led by China and other countries outside the 34-member Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.

While oil has retreated in the past month as threats to supplies in Libya and Iraq abate, prices will stay supported near historically high levels as risks in the region “remain extraordinarily high,” the agency said.

“The global economy is still expected to gain momentum in 2015,” said the Paris-based IEA, which advises most OECD nations on energy policy.

“The oil outlook for 2015, unveiled here in detail for the first time, also does not suggest any letup in market conditions.”

Brent crude futures slipped 2.3% this year as Libya aims to restore supplies curbed by political protests, concerns fade that Iraq’s output will be reduced by an Islamist insurgency, and production in the U.S. nears its highest in three decades.

Global gross domestic product will expand by 3.9% next year, up from 3.6% in 2014, according to the International Monetary Fund.


There’s always a good reason for oil to stay high.

Brent crude $107.89 and U.S. crude $102.34 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: BP's Latest Estimate Says World's Oil Will Last 53.3 Years
: Letsbereal July 14, 2014, 08:18:20 PM
BP's Latest Estimate Says World's Oil Will Last 53.3 Years
14 July 2014
, by Andy Tully (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-14/bps-latest-estimate-says-worlds-oil-will-last-533-years

150 Years Of "Real" Oil Prices
14 July 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-14/150-years-real-oil-prices

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/07/20140713_oil150.jpg)


There’s always a good reason for oil to stay high.

Brent crude $106.74 and U.S. crude $100.93 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Re: Brent crude $106.74 and U.S. crude $100.93 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal July 15, 2014, 01:15:13 PM
Oil Trade Dormant Since ’10 Revives as Brent Spreads Grow
15 July 2014
, by Grant Smith and Naomi Christie (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-07-15/oil-contango-seen-reviving-trading-strategy-dormant-since-2010.html

Excerpt:

Oil traders have the most incentive in four years to store crude at sea and sell it as prices rise, prompting speculation about a revival in the trade once used by companies including BP Plc and Citigroup Inc.

Brent oil for September traded at $106.13 a barrel as of 3:03 p.m. in London, about $1 more than the same grade for August, according to data on the ICE Futures Europe exchange.

That premium hasn’t been bigger since May 2010, the bourse’s data show.

That was also around the time oil companies last used tankers for storage in this way, according to E.A. Gibson Shipbrokers Ltd., a London-based broker that arranges charters.

The gap between the two months is wide enough for oil traders to profit from keeping oil at sea for delivery later, according to Energy Aspects Ltd., a consultant based in London. Frontline Ltd., an operator of the biggest tankers, said yesterday the premium should be enough to encourage such bookings.

The price structure, known as contango, hasn’t translated into vessels being hired for storage so far and other analysts say it still needs to get bigger for that to happen.

“The prompt Brent spreads are at a level that incentivizes floating storage, that is, it becomes economic for companies to store crude on tankers,” Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst for Energy Aspects, said by e-mail today.

“It’s a trade that proved profitable during the period of contango in 2008 to 2009.”

Oil companies and banks, including BP, Royal Dutch Shell Plc and Citigroup’s commodities-trading unit, anchored ships laden with crude off the U.K. coast in 2009 to take advantage of the contango.

London-based BP said “interesting trading opportunities” helped it earn $500 million more than normal in the first quarter of 2009.


There’s always a good reason for oil to stay high.

Brent crude $105.21 and U.S. crude $99.33 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Brent crude $107.78 and U.S. crude $104.58 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal July 21, 2014, 05:36:51 PM
Saxobank: "Be Warned" Of Delayed Market Reaction To "Escalation Of Global Turmoil"
21 July 2014
, by Steen Jakobsen, Chief Economist of Saxobank (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-21/saxobank-be-warned-delayed-market-reaction-escalation-global-turmoil


Oil Jumps As Stocks Dump-And-Pump But Close Lower
21 July 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-21/oil-jumps-stocks-dump-and-pump-close-lower


There’s always a good reason for oil to stay high.

Brent crude $107.78 and U.S. crude $104.58 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: An Annotated History of World Oil Price Shocks
: Letsbereal July 23, 2014, 10:04:14 AM
An Annotated History of World Oil Price Shocks
23 July 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-23/annotated-history-world-oil-price-shocks

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/07/20140722_oilprice1_0.jpg) (http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/07/20140722_oilprice1.jpg)


Efficient Markets? August Oil Futures Flash Smash & Crash Into Expiry
22 July 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-22/efficient-markets-august-oil-futures-flash-smash-crash-expiry

OPEC’s Two-Decade Ride on Global Growth Stalls: Chart of the Day
22 July 2014
, by Grant Smith (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-07-22/opec-s-two-decade-ride-on-global-growth-stalls-chart-of-the-day.html


There’s always a good reason for oil to stay high.

Brent crude $107.96 and U.S. crude $102.68 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Re: An Annotated History of World Oil Price Shocks
: EvadingGrid July 23, 2014, 11:22:04 AM
An Annotated History of World Oil Price Shocks
23 July 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-23/annotated-history-world-oil-price-shocks

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/07/20140722_oilprice1_0.jpg) (http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/07/20140722_oilprice1.jpg)


Efficient Markets? August Oil Futures Flash Smash & Crash Into Expiry
22 July 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-22/efficient-markets-august-oil-futures-flash-smash-crash-expiry

OPEC’s Two-Decade Ride on Global Growth Stalls: Chart of the Day
22 July 2014
, by Grant Smith (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-07-22/opec-s-two-decade-ride-on-global-growth-stalls-chart-of-the-day.html


There’s always a good reason for oil to stay high.

Brent crude $107.96 and U.S. crude $102.68 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1

I like that graphic chart, but missing on details, but it covers a large timescale.
: Brent crude $108.03 and U.S. crude $103.02 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal July 23, 2014, 02:53:56 PM
There’s always a good reason for oil to stay high.

Brent crude $108.03 and U.S. crude $103.02 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1

Brent crude $107.96 and U.S. crude $102.68 A Barrel a couple of minutes ago.
: Re: Brent crude $108.03 and U.S. crude $103.02 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal July 29, 2014, 10:38:23 AM
There’s always a good reason for oil to stay high.

Brent crude $107.28 and U.S. crude $100.69 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1


There must be some relationship, or inverse relationship if you will, between some economic measures and war rhetorics.

I always thought that would be oil but it isn’t! Oil hardly blinked on all the chaos news from Iraq to the Ukraine?

Just like gold it keeps trading stubbornly sidewards within a very tight channel range.


Brent crude $109.21 and U.S. crude $103.36 June 04, 2014
Brent crude $113.22 and U.S. crude $106.86 June 12, 2014
Brent crude $113.47 and U.S. crude $106.91 June 17, 2014
Brent crude $114.37 and U.S. crude $106.17 June 19, 2014
Brent crude $115.01 and U.S. crude $106.51 June 19, 2014
Brent crude $114.50 and U.S. crude $106.32 June 24, 2014
Brent crude $112.21 and U.S. crude $104.85 June 30, 2014
Brent crude $111.96 and U.S. crude $105.28 July 02, 2014
Brent crude $110.74 and U.S. crude $104.01 July 03, 2014
Brent crude $110.73 and U.S. crude $103.87 July 03, 2014
Brent crude $110.78 and U.S. crude $103.81 July 03, 2014
Brent crude $110.81 and U.S. crude $103.83 July 04, 2014
Brent crude $108.09 and U.S. crude $101.97 July 09, 2014
Brent crude $108.73 and U.S. crude $102.91 July 10, 2014
Brent crude $107.89 and U.S. crude $102.34 July 11, 2014
Brent crude $106.74 and U.S. crude $100.93 July 14, 2014
Brent crude $107.78 and U.S. crude $104.58 July 21, 2014
Brent crude $107.96 and U.S. crude $102.68 July 23, 2014
Brent crude $107.28 and U.S. crude $100.69 A Barrel Now

But if anything oil went down with the rising of war rhetorics which is just amazing! Can you say RIGGED!?

btw Same with gold now at around $1,300 o/z from $1,311 o/z http://www.goldprice.org/spot-gold.html
: Brent crude $106.01 and U.S. crude $99.42 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal July 30, 2014, 06:05:55 PM
There’s always a good reason for oil to stay high.

Brent crude $106.01 and U.S. crude $99.42 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Brent Rebounds From 14-Month Low on Speculation Losses Excessive
: Letsbereal August 20, 2014, 06:51:15 AM
Brent Rebounds From 14-Month Low on Speculation Losses Excessive
20 August 2014
, by Grant Smith (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-08-20/wti-rises-from-seven-month-low-as-u-s-stockpiles-seen-falling.html

Brent crude rebounded from its lowest closing level in 14 months amid speculation that losses have been excessive amid risks to Middle Eastern supply. West Texas Intermediate was steady before U.S. inventory data.


There’s always a good reason for oil to stay high.

Brent crude $102.06 and U.S. crude $95.80 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: WTI Crude Trades Near Seven-Month Low
: Letsbereal August 26, 2014, 07:31:00 AM
WTI Crude Trades Near Seven-Month Low
26 August 2014
, by Anthony DiPaola and Ben Sharples (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-08-25/wti-crude-holds-near-seven-month-low-before-u-s-supply-data.html

West Texas Intermediate traded near the lowest closing price in seven months after speculators cut bullish bets and as supply rises in the U.S., the world’s biggest consumer. Brent was steady in London.


Brent crude $102.10 and U.S. crude $93.61 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Oil Tumbling On Biggest Liquidation of Longs in Recorded History
: Letsbereal August 27, 2014, 07:39:18 AM
Forget Geopolitical De-Escalation - Here's The Real Reason Why Oil Is Tumbling
26 August 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-26/forget-geopolitical-de-escalation-heres-real-reason-why-oil-tumbling
 
As with  every other asset-class in the world now, fundamentals have taken a very distant back-seat to both liquidity (flow) and positioning (technicals) as traders are increasingly (in one way or another) on the same side of the same trade.

Mainstream media will proclaim US energy "independence", US sanctions 'winning' over Putin, or US airstrikes 'calming' down Middle East uncertainty;

but the real reason oil is plunging is... the biggest mass liquidation of speculative longs in recorded 30 year history over the last few weeks...


Brent crude $102.10 and U.S. crude $94.10 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: OPEC Oil Output Hits One-Year High in August on Nigeria
: Letsbereal August 29, 2014, 01:21:29 PM
OPEC Oil Output Hits One-Year High in August on Nigeria
29 August 2014
, by Mark Shenk (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-08-29/opec-august-crude-output-increases-to-one-year-high-in-survey.html


Brent crude $102.10 and U.S. crude $95.37 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Brent crude $102.10 and U.S. crude $95.84 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal August 30, 2014, 10:55:00 AM
Brent crude $102.10 and U.S. crude $95.84 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: WTI Drops as Global Manufacturing Misses Estimates
: Letsbereal September 02, 2014, 09:33:24 PM
WTI Drops as Global Manufacturing Misses Estimates
2 September 2014
, by Nayla Razzouk and Ben Sharples (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-09-02/wti-drops-as-global-manufacturing-misses-estimates-brent-steady.html


Brent crude $100.45 and U.S. crude $93.11 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: "God of Crude Oil Trading" Goes All In On Crude At $150 Bet
: Letsbereal September 04, 2014, 10:39:48 AM
"God of Crude Oil Trading" Goes All In On Crude At $150 Bet
3 September 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-03/god-crude-oil-trading-goes-all-crude-150-bet

Hall is going all in on a bet that the shale-oil boom will play out far sooner than many analysts expect, resulting in a steady increase in prices to as much as $150 a barrel in five years or less.


Brent crude $102.56 and U.S. crude $94.88 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: WTI Crude Declines After U.S. Payrolls Report
: Letsbereal September 06, 2014, 01:27:59 AM
WTI Crude Declines After U.S. Payrolls Report
5 September 2014
, by Lananh Nguyen (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-09-05/wti-crude-gains-on-signs-of-u-s-economic-recovery.html


Brent crude $100.97 and U.S. crude $93.45 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Brent below $100 as China data spur demand, growth worries
: Letsbereal September 08, 2014, 02:44:41 PM
Brent below $100 as China data spur demand, growth worries
8 September 2014
, by CarlaMozee and Claudia Assis - San Francisco (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/brent-below-100-as-china-data-spur-demand-growth-worries-2014-09-08


Brent crude $100.14 and U.S. crude $92.49 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: EIA Lowers Price Forecasts for Brent, WTI Through 2015
: Letsbereal September 09, 2014, 10:12:15 PM
EIA Lowers Price Forecasts for Brent, WTI Through 2015
9 September 2014
, by Mark Shenk (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-09-09/eia-lowers-price-forecasts-for-brent-wti-through-2015.html

Excerpt:

Oil prices are poised to drop next year as U.S. crude production reaches a 45-year high, government forecasters said today.

West Texas Intermediate will average $94.67 a barrel in 2015 versus the August projection of $96.08, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said today in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook.

The EIA trimmed its Brent crude forecast for next year to $103 from $105.

Rising U.S. crude production is bolstering the country’s energy independence, Adam Sieminski, the administrator of the EIA, said in a statement.

The agency forecast output of 8.53 million barrels a day this year, up from 7.45 million last year, and 9.53 million in 2015, the most since 1970.

It’s also pushing down the EIA’s forecast for gasoline prices.

“The U.S. oil production forecast for 2015 was revised up by 250,000 barrels per day, with total output expected to be at the highest level since 1970,” Sieminski said.

“Rising monthly crude oil production, which will approach 10 million barrels a day in late 2015, will help cut U.S. fuel imports to just 21% of domestic demand, the lowest since 1968.”

Retail gasoline is forecast to average $3.46 a gallon this year and $3.41 in 2015, according to the EIA. That’s down from last month’s forecasts of $3.50 and $3.46.


Brent crude $99.39 and U.S. crude $92.95 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: OPEC cuts estimate of demand for crude oil in 2015
: Letsbereal September 10, 2014, 01:03:38 PM
OPEC cuts estimate of demand for crude oil in 2015
10 September 2014
, Vienna (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/opec-cuts-estimate-of-demand-for-crude-oil-in-2015-2014-09-10

Oil falls as OPEC cuts its view on demand
10 September 2014
, by Sara Sjolin and Claudia Assis - San Francisco (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-climbs-ahead-of-eia-opec-reports-2014-09-10

OPEC Cuts Demand Outlook by Most in 3 Years on U.S. Shale
10 September 2014
, by Grant Smith (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-09-10/opec-cuts-demand-outlook-by-most-in-three-years-on-shale.html

Saudi Arabia Told OPEC It Cut Oil Output 408k b/d in Aug.
10 September 2014
, by Grant Smith (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-09-10/saudi-arabia-told-opec-it-cut-oil-output-408k-b-d-in-aug-.html

Brent Trades Below $100 for Longest Run in 16 Months
10 September 201
4, by Grant Smith (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-09-09/wti-oil-advances-a-second-day-as-u-s-crude-stockpiles-decline.html

Cheapest U.S. Gasoline Since 2010 Set to Get Cheaper
10 September 2014
, by Dan Murtaugh and Lynn Doan (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-09-09/cheapest-u-s-gasoline-since-2010-set-to-get-cheaper.html


Brent crude $98.07 and U.S. crude $91.72 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: IEA Cuts Demand Estimate as Saudi Exports Drop to 2011 Low
: Letsbereal September 11, 2014, 07:24:43 PM
IEA Cuts Demand Estimate as Saudi Exports Drop to 2011 Low
11 September 2014
, by Grant Smith (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-09-11/iea-cuts-oil-demand-estimates-as-saudi-exports-drop-to-2011-low.html

The International Energy Agency cut its global oil demand forecasts for 2015 and said Saudi Arabia exported the least in almost three years as purchases slowed from China and Europe.

Saudi Arabia’s Naimi Says OPEC Meeting Can Wait as Oil Slumps
11 September 2014
, by Wael Mahdi and Maher Chmaytelli (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-09-11/saudi-arabia-s-naimi-says-opec-meeting-can-wait-as-oil-slumps.html


Brent crude $98.14 and U.S. crude $93.02 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: IEA again cuts forecasts for oil demand
: Letsbereal September 11, 2014, 11:29:44 PM
IEA again cuts forecasts for oil demand - Slowdown in demand ‘nothing short of remarkable’
11 September 2014
, by Sarah Kent (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/iea-again-cuts-forecasts-for-oil-demand-2014-09-11

The International Energy Agency Thursday trimmed its forecast for the rise in oil demand this year for the third month in a row, calling the recent slowdown in demand “nothing short of remarkable.”

In its closely watched monthly oil market report, the Paris-based energy watchdog said it expects global oil demand to grow by 0.9 million barrels a day in 2014, a decrease of 65,000 barrels a day compared with last month’s forecast and down by 300,000 barrels a day since July.

According to the IEA, oil demand growth in the second quarter was at its lowest in 2½ years, dented by economic weakness in Europe and China, a trend the agency expects will continue to weigh on demand.

“While demand growth is still expected to gain momentum, the expected pace of recovery is now looking somewhat more subdued,” the IEA said.

The agency expects oil demand to increase by 1.2 million barrels a day next year, though that is still 100,000 barrels a day less than it forecast last month


Brent crude $97.78 and U.S. crude $92.79 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Oil Price Plunge? It's The Global Economy, Stupid!
: Letsbereal September 12, 2014, 11:46:55 AM
Oil Price Plunge? It's The Global Economy, Stupid!
12 September 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-12/oil-price-plunge-its-global-economy-stupid


Brent crude $97.03 and U.S. crude $92.57 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Re: Oil Price Plunge? It's The Global Economy, Stupid!
: Geolibertarian September 12, 2014, 12:10:11 PM
Oil Price Plunge? It's The Global Economy, Stupid!

Once again, if there's an oil price surge, it's immediately attributed to dollar devaluation.

But if there's an oil price plunge, it's immediately attributed to something other than the value of the dollar.

Interesting double standard, is it not?

Why is the the value of the dollar always the primary determining factor of oil prices when these prices are going up, but never when they're going in the opposite direction?

Or would Austrians (http://recoveringaustrians.wordpress.com/top-ten-austrian-economic-lies-and mistakes/) rather we not ask that question in the first place, lest their Miss Teen South Carolina (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caitlin_Upton#Response_to_question)-type answer trigger more embarrassing questions?

http://forum.prisonplanet.com/index.php?topic=202354.0 (http://forum.prisonplanet.com/index.php?topic=202354.0)
: Oil rallies as OPEC says it would trim output
: Letsbereal September 16, 2014, 07:58:40 PM
Oil rallies as OPEC says it would trim output
16 September 2014
, by Sara Sjolin and Claudia Assis - San Francisco (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-futures-slip-from-one-week-high-with-fed-in-view-2014-09-16

U.S. Targets Islamic State's Lucrative Oil Smuggling Operations
16 September 2014
, by Nick Cuningham (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-16/us-targets-islamic-states-lucrative-oil-smuggling-operations


Brent crude $99.00 and U.S. crude $94.68 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Deeper Saudi Oil Cuts Seen After Biggest Drop Since ’12: Energy
: Letsbereal September 18, 2014, 02:08:50 AM
Deeper Saudi Oil Cuts Seen After Biggest Drop Since ’12: Energy
17 September 2014
, by Grant Smith and Mark Shenk (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-09-16/deeper-saudi-oil-cuts-seen-after-biggest-drop-since-12-energy.html

Libya Halts Biggest Oilfield Sharara Amid Rebel Attacks
17 September 2014
, by Maher Chmaytelli and Grant Smith (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-09-17/libya-halts-biggest-oilfield-sharara-amid-rebel-attacks.html


Brent crude $98.35 and U.S. crude $93.78 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Brent Crude Declines on Concern China Growth Slowing
: Letsbereal September 22, 2014, 06:00:47 PM
Brent Crude Declines on Concern China Growth Slowing
22 September 2014
, by Ben Sharples and Grant Smith (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-09-21/brent-crude-declines-before-china-manufacturing-data-wti-steady.html

Brent crude declined for the third time in four days after China’s finance minister damped speculation that the government will boost economic stimulus. West Texas Intermediate was steady in New York.


Brent crude $96.78 and U.S. crude $91.46 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Gasoline Surges to September High Amid Refinery Outage
: Letsbereal September 26, 2014, 04:57:51 AM
Gasoline Surges to September High Amid Refinery Outage
25 September 2014
, by Moming Zhou (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-09-25/wti-crude-rises-for-third-day-on-economy-gasoline-gains.html

Refinery Shutdowns Interrupt U.S. Pump Price Decline
25 September 2014
, by Dan Murtaugh and Moming Zhou (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-09-25/refinery-shutdowns-threaten-to-raise-u-s-pump-prices.html

Islamic State Oil Refineries in Syria Hit in Airstrikes
25 September 2014
, by Tony Capaccio, David Lerman and Selcan Hacaoglu (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-09-24/islamic-state-oil-in-syria-said-to-be-hit-by-u-s-strikes.html


Brent crude $96.73 and U.S. crude $92.43 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Re: Brent crude $96.73 and U.S. crude $92.43 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal September 29, 2014, 11:32:21 PM
Oil Heads for Biggest Quarterly Drop in 2 Years on Ample Supply
29 September 2014
, by Heesu Lee (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-09-30/oil-heads-for-biggest-quarterly-drop-in-2-years-on-ample-supply.html


Brent crude $97.30 and U.S. crude $94.44 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: WTI Crude Slips Below $90 for First Time in 17 Months
: Letsbereal October 02, 2014, 06:20:01 AM
WTI Crude Slips Below $90 for First Time in 17 Months
2 October 2014
, by Grant Smith and Moming Zhou (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-10-02/wti-crude-slips-below-90-for-first-time-in-17-months.html


Brent crude $88.63 and U.S. crude $91.94 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Gasoline Heading Toward $3 in U.S. as Oil Prices Slide
: Letsbereal October 04, 2014, 10:22:17 AM
OPEC Price War Signaled by Saudi Move Risks Deeper Drop
3 October 2014
, by Grant Smith and Dan Murtaugh (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-10-03/opec-price-war-signaled-by-saudi-move-risks-deeper-drop.html

Gasoline Heading Toward $3 in U.S. as Oil Prices Slide
3 October 2014
, by Moming Zhou (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-10-03/gasoline-heading-toward-3-in-u-s-as-oil-prices-slide.html


Brent crude $92.25 and U.S. crude $89.71 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Brent Crude Extends Slide to Its Lowest Price Since 2012
: Letsbereal October 06, 2014, 07:27:47 AM
Brent Crude Extends Slide to Its Lowest Price Since 2012
6 October 2014
, by Grant Smith (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-10-05/brent-crude-extends-decline-from-2012-low-amid-adequate-supplies.html

Tumbling Oil Prices Punish Hedge Funds Betting on Gains
5 October 2014
, by Mark Shenk (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-10-05/tumbling-oil-prices-punish-hedge-funds-betting-on-gains.html


Brent crude $92.97 and U.S. crude $90.30 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1

It’s so funny. We’re 6 years into a global depression with rising oil prices while they should have gone lower while now the hedge funds think the U.S. is in a ‘Recovery’, prices go lower.
: Oil finishes below $90 a barrel
: Letsbereal October 08, 2014, 09:29:19 PM
Oil finishes below $90 a barrel
8 October 2014
, by William Watts & Eric Yep - New York (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-futures-subdued-wti-holds-above-90bbl-2014-10-07-11035125

Crude-oil futures resumed their slump Tuesday, with the global benchmark ending at its lowest level in two years after the International Monetary Fund cut its outlook for global growth.


Shale Boom Tested as Sub-$90 Oil Threatens U.S. Drillers
8 October 2014
, by Isaac Arnsdorf (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-10-07/shale-boom-tested-as-sub-90-oil-threatens-u-s-drillers.html


Brent crude $91.74 and U.S. crude $87.82 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Re: Brent crude $91.74 and U.S. crude $87.82 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal October 09, 2014, 03:14:32 PM
Crude Enters Bear Market As Gold Posts Longest Winning Streak In 7 Months
9 October 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-09/crude-enters-bear-market-gold-posts-longest-winning-streak-7-months

Energy Stocks Are Crashing As WTI Plunges Under $85
9 October 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-09/energy-stocks-are-crashing-wti-plunges-under-85


Brent crude $89.75 and U.S. crude $85.71 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Why Oil Is Plunging: The Other Part Of The “Secret Deal”
: Letsbereal October 10, 2014, 10:47:47 PM
Why Oil Is Plunging: The Other Part Of The “Secret Deal” Between The US And Saudi Arabia
10 October 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-10/why-oil-plunging-other-part-secret-deal-between-us-and-saudi-arabia

Saudi Arabia to pressure Russia, Iran with price of oil

Saudi Arabia will force the price of oil down, in an effort to put political pressure on Iran and Russia, according to the President of Saudi Arabia Oil Policies and Strategic Expectations Center.

Saudi Arabia plans to sell oil cheap for political reasons, one analyst says. 



The Arabs are used to play with the oil price downwards every 4 year or so also to wipe out alternative energy by making it expensive that way.

Brent crude $89.89 and U.S. crude $85.52 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Brent Set for 4-Year Low as Iraq Follows Saudi Price Cuts
: Letsbereal October 13, 2014, 02:48:37 PM
Brent Set for 4-Year Low as Iraq Follows Saudi Price Cuts http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-10-13/brent-set-for-4-year-low-as-iraq-follows-saudi-price-cuts.html

Speculators Push Oil Into Bear Market as Supply Rises http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-10-12/speculators-push-oil-into-bear-market-as-supply-rises.html

Oil Bear Market Tests OPEC Unity as Venezuela Seeks Meeting http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-10-13/oil-bear-market-strains-opec-unity-as-venezuela-seeks-meeting.html

Iraq Follows Saudi Cuts as Brent Slides to 4-Year Low http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-10-12/brent-crude-slumps-to-lowest-in-almost-four-years-on-supply-glut.html

Exclusive: Privately, Saudis tell oil market- get used to lower prices http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/13/us-oil-saudi-policy-idUSKCN0I201Y20141013


Brent crude $88.72 and U.S. crude $85.60 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: How To Blow Up OPEC In Three Easy Steps
: Letsbereal October 14, 2014, 07:33:48 AM
How To Blow Up OPEC In Three Easy Steps
13 October 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-13/how-blow-opec-three-easy-steps

We’ve known for a while that the Saudis were lowering their prices. Which is something other OPEC members will be plenty upset about.

But now we find out they’re also increasing production, and trying to catch EUropean and Asian customers before other fellow members can.

That adds a whole extra dimension to the story.


Facing new oil glut, Saudis avoid 1980s mistakes to halt price slide
13 October 2014
, by Rania El Gamal - Dubai (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/14/us-saudi-oil-policy-analysis-idUSKCN0I229320141014


Question: What will the FED do with coming disinflation trough lower oil prices? Will they grab that stick to proclaim (fake) deflation danger and ramp up QE again?

Brent crude $87.83 and U.S. crude $84.81 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Brent crude $82.75 and U.S. crude $80.04 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal October 16, 2014, 07:36:34 AM
5 Reasons Oil Prices Are Dropping
14 October 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-14/5-reasons-oil-prices-are-dropping


Brent crude $82.75 and U.S. crude $80.04 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Did The Saudis Just Get A Tap On The Shoulder?
: Letsbereal October 16, 2014, 07:32:57 PM
Did The Saudis Just Get A Tap On The Shoulder?
16 October 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-16/did-saudis-just-get-tap-shoulder

Excerpt:

The US-Saudi "secret" plan that was supposed to crush Putin quickly turned sour when as we reported several days ago, one after another America's own shale plays, which recently entered a very sharp bear market, started appearing on various death watches (case in point today's MHR Second Lien refi which repriced from L+500 to L+750 in minutes).

As a result, one wonders: did Obama realize that Russian "costs" which as everyone knows by now include a Eurpoean triple-dip recession, could also very soon include an insolvent US shale industry, and thus may be just a little too much, and, one further wonders, if he is the one who just tapped Saudi Arabia on the shoulder?

WTI - granted, record oversold as is - explodes higher (on no news whatsoever)

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/10/20141016_WTI_0.jpg) (http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/10/20141016_WTI.jpg)


Nearly 3 pct of output vulnerable if oil falls to $80 -IEA
14 October 2014
, by Simon Falush (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/14/iea-oil-breakeven-idUSL6N0S92CV20141014


Brent crude $84.49 and U.S. crude $83.08 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Brent crude $87.15 and U.S. crude $84.45 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal October 17, 2014, 06:47:27 AM
Brent crude $87.15 and U.S. crude $84.45 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: U.S. Imports of Saudi Crude Rebound From Four-Year Low
: Letsbereal October 17, 2014, 05:09:02 PM
Oil Output in U.S. Near 45-Year High Pushes Down Forward Prices
16 October 2014
, by Moming Zhou (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-10-16/oil-output-in-u-s-near-45-year-high-pushes-down-forward-prices.html

U.S. Imports of Saudi Crude Rebound From Four-Year Low
16 October 2014
, by Mark Shenk (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-10-16/u-s-imports-of-saudi-crude-rebound-from-four-year-low.html

Oil Rigs Slump by Most in Two Months After Prices Slide
17 October 2014
, by Lynn Doan and Dan Murtaugh (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-10-17/oil-rigs-in-u-s-fall-to-1-590-following-slide-in-crude.html


Brent crude $86.10 and U.S. crude $82.95 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Oil Falls; OPEC Seen Waiting Till Meeting to Curb Output
: Letsbereal October 21, 2014, 01:12:52 AM
Oil Falls; OPEC Seen Waiting Till Meeting to Curb Output
20 October 2014
, by Mark Shenk (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-10-20/brent-oil-falls-as-opec-seen-waiting-to-take-action.html

Brent crude fell on speculation that OPEC won’t take any action to bolster prices before a meeting scheduled for Nov. 27 in Vienna.

West Texas Intermediate futures were little changed.



Brent crude $85.60 and U.S. crude $83.01 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Brent crude $86.20 and U.S. crude $83.25 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal October 22, 2014, 11:00:56 AM
WTI Little Changed Before Inventory Report; Brent Gains
22 October 2014
, by Moming Zhou (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-10-22/wti-climbs-on-speculation-supply-growth-slowed-brent-up.html


Brent crude $86.20 and U.S. crude $83.25 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Brent crude $84.68 and U.S. crude $83.25 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal October 22, 2014, 06:56:05 PM
Brent crude $84.68 and U.S. crude $83.25 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Brent crude $86.20 and U.S. crude $83.25 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal October 23, 2014, 12:13:08 PM
Saudi Arabia Surprises Market With Supply Cut Announcement, Oil Jumps
23 October 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-23/saudi-arabia-surprises-market-supply-cut-announcement-oil-jumps


Brent crude $86.20 and U.S. crude $83.25 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Brent crude $85.71 and U.S. crude $83.25 A Barrel
: Letsbereal October 24, 2014, 10:28:58 AM
Brent crude $85.71 and U.S. crude $83.25 A Barrel Now http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
: Re: Brent crude $85.71 and U.S. crude $83.25 A Barrel Now
: EvadingGrid October 24, 2014, 10:56:45 AM
I saw early this morning it crashed to 83.95 for a very short time..  Yet latter on it rocket up to 86.85

Talk about volatility . . .
People usually think in terms of a few pips. . .
This is like a roller coaster in a horror movie . . .
Very easy to loose and get wiped out because of leverage of 50:1 and get a margin call account suspended.
: Re: Brent crude $85.71 and U.S. crude $83.25 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal October 24, 2014, 11:10:09 AM
I saw early this morning it crashed to 83.95 for a very short time..  Yet latter on it rocket up to 86.85

Talk about volatility . . .
People usually think in terms of a few pips. . .
This is like a roller coaster in a horror movie . . .
Very easy to loose and get wiped out because of leverage of 50:1 and get a margin call account suspended.

Interesting observation indeed.

What I find strange is that U.S. crude stays at exactly $83.25 a barrel for three days in a row?
: Re: Brent crude $85.71 and U.S. crude $83.25 A Barrel Now
: EvadingGrid October 24, 2014, 11:24:57 AM
Interesting observation indeed.

What I find strange is that U.S. crude stays at exactly $83.25 a barrel for three days in a row?

I only have a feed for the London Market - as in real time live feed.

Kind of hard to believe that the US price is static when London is on a mad duck and dive.
: Brent crude $86.13 and U.S. crude $81.01 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal October 24, 2014, 10:51:25 PM
High-Cost Projects to Struggle at $80-$85 Crude, Oil Search Says
23 October 2014
, by James Paton (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-10-23/high-cost-projects-to-struggle-at-80-85-crude-oil-search-says.html


Brent crude $86.13 and U.S. crude $81.01 A Barrel Now

http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1

http://www.oil-price.net/

http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/

Reuters doesn't give accurate oil prices anymore for some reason.
: Brent crude $85.36 and U.S. crude $80.68 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal October 27, 2014, 04:51:07 PM
WTI Crude Tumbles Under $80 Following Goldman Downgrade
27 October 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-27/wti-crude-tumbles-under-80-following-goldman-downgrade

Oil Speculators Bet Wrong as Rebound Proves Fleeting
27 October 2014
, by Moming Zhou (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-10-26/oil-speculators-bet-wrong-as-rebound-proves-fleeting.html

U.S. Gasoline Falls to Lowest Since 2010, Lundberg Says
27 October 2014
, by Jessica Summers and Dan Murtaugh (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-10-26/pump-prices-in-u-s-decline-to-3-0759-a-gallon-lundberg-says.html


Brent crude $85.36 and U.S. crude $80.68 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Barclays Cuts Oil-Price Forecasts on World Supply Surplus
: Letsbereal October 28, 2014, 04:32:07 PM
Barclays Cuts Oil-Price Forecasts on World Supply Surplus
28 October 2014
, by Grant Smith (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-10-28/barclays-cuts-oil-price-forecasts-on-world-supply-surplus.html

Crude at $80 a Barrel? No Sweat, Say Oil Producer CEOs
28 October 2014
, by Joe Carroll and David Wethe (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-10-28/crude-at-80-a-barrel-no-sweat-say-oil-producer-ceos.html

U.S. energy companies are shrugging off a 24% plunge in oil prices, confident they can adapt and still make money.


Brent crude $85.97 and U.S. crude $81.26 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Why Oil Prices Went Down So Far So Fast
: Letsbereal October 30, 2014, 12:13:40 PM
Why Oil Prices Went Down So Far So Fast
30 October 2014
, by Isaac Arnsdorf (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-10-29/why-oil-prices-went-down-so-far-so-fast.html


Brent crude $86.28 and U.S. crude $80.99 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: OPEC Head Tells Oil Market to Stop Panicking About Prices
: Letsbereal October 30, 2014, 01:25:34 PM
OPEC Head Tells Oil Market to Stop Panicking About Prices
30 October 2014
, by Grant Smith (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-10-30/opec-head-tells-oil-market-to-stop-panicking-about-prices.html

Iran’s Oil Revenue Falls 30% Because of Global Price Decline
30 October 2014
, by Anthony DiPaola and Golnar Motevalli (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-10-29/iran-oil-revenue-shrinks-30-percent-on-price-drop-rouhani-says.html


Brent crude $86.40 and U.S. crude $81.19 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: How Long Can The Shale Revolution Last?
: Letsbereal October 30, 2014, 05:59:41 PM
How Long Can The Shale Revolution Last?
30 October 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-30/how-long-can-shale-revolution-last

Excerpt:

The report found that both shale oil and shale gas production will peak before 2020.

More importantly, the report’s author, David Hughes, says oil production will decline much more quickly than the EIA has predicted.

That’s largely because of high decline rates at shale wells across the country.

Unlike conventional wells, which can produce relatively stable rates for a long period of time, shale oil and gas wells experience an initial burst of production in the first few years, followed by a precipitous decline thereafter.

Hughes estimates that the average shale oil well declines at a rate of between 60% and 91% over three years.

Wells in the Bakken decline by 45% per year, which stands in stark contrast to the 5% annual decline for an average conventional well.

Or put another way, oil and gas companies will have to keep drilling at a feverish pace just to stand still.

This means the industry is on a “drilling treadmill” that will be unsustainable over the long-term.

Predicting what oil production will be in 25 years is difficult, to say the least, but the Post Carbon report projects that oil production from the Bakken and Eagle Ford will be just one-tenth of the level that EIA is forecasting.

The EIA predicts that the Bakken and the Eagle Ford will be producing a combined 1 million bpd in 2040.

Hughes thinks it will be just a small fraction of that amount – a mere 73,000 bpd.

This is not the first time that David Hughes has taken aim at EIA data.

In a December 2013 report, he skewered the high estimates for the potential of the Monterrey Shale in California, calling the EIA’s numbers “simplistic and highly overstated.”

Several months later, the EIA was forced to back track on its figures, downgrading the recoverable oil estimates in the Monterrey by 96%.

Hughes says the implications of getting it wrong are “profound,” since so many companies are basing very large investments on incorrect projections.

He says rosy estimates have cut into investment for renewables, while steering capital towards expensive oil and gas export terminals that should now be called into question.

An article in CleanTechnica points to the possibility of boom towns turning into “ghost towns” if the pace of drilling drops off.

If David Hughes and The Post Carbon Institute are correct, there could be quite a few ghost towns popping up in the coming years as the shale revolution begins to fizzle.


Brent crude $86.07 and U.S. crude $81.02 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Re: Brent crude $86.07 and U.S. crude $81.02 A Barrel Now
: EvadingGrid October 30, 2014, 06:17:38 PM
At what price is phracking un-economic ?
Like what is the break even price ?
Are the Saudi targeting phracking or Russia or both ?
: Re: Brent crude $86.07 and U.S. crude $81.02 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal October 30, 2014, 07:53:55 PM
At what price is phracking un-economic ?
Like what is the break even price ?
Are the Saudi targeting phracking or Russia or both ?

I don't know exactly but I'll guess we'll find out soon when oil prices stay at this lower level for a while.

There are voices that say that fracking was even 'a losing business' at the higher oil price levels and that it is highly subsidized by cheap printed up money from the FED.

"Yet achieving U.S. energy self-sufficiency depends on easy credit and oil prices high enough to cover well costs. Even with crude above $100 a barrel, shale producers are spending money faster than they make it."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-02-27/dream-of-u-s-oil-independence-slams-against-shale-costs.html

"The break-even price in U.S. shale is estimated at $60 to $80 a barrel, according to the IEA."
: Re: Brent crude $86.07 and U.S. crude $81.02 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal October 30, 2014, 08:25:20 PM
If they have turned QE off, is it only a matter of time before the phrack crowd go broke ?

How much of these is about Geo-politics ?

When you talk oil, Geo-politics is always involved in some way. Many, including me, are still trying to figure out to what extend latest oil price cut is driven by Geo-politics.

And if so, this politics will be effective to obtain their goal(s). Some headlines which could point in a certain direction:

Iran’s Oil Revenue Falls 30% Because of Global Price Decline http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-10-29/iran-oil-revenue-shrinks-30-percent-on-price-drop-rouhani-says.html

Why Oil Prices Went Down So Far So Fast http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-10-29/why-oil-prices-went-down-so-far-so-fast.html

How Oil Prices Affect These Three Major Players http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/How-Oil-Prices-Affect-These-Three-Major-Players.html

Falling Oil Prices Could Push Venezuela Over The Edge http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-16/falling-oil-prices-could-push-venezuela-over-edge

If The Oil Plunge Continues, "Now May Be A Time To Panic" For US Shale Companies http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-14/if-oil-plunge-continues-now-may-be-time-panic-us-shale-companies

Exclusive: Privately, Saudis tell oil market- get used to lower prices http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/13/us-oil-saudi-policy-idUSKCN0I201Y20141013

Saudi Arabia's "Oil-Weapon" Hits Europe http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-12/saudi-arabias-oil-weapon-hits-europe

Why Oil Is Plunging: The Other Part Of The "Secret Deal" Between The US And Saudi Arabia http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-10/why-oil-plunging-other-part-secret-deal-between-us-and-saudi-arabia

Oil Rout Replaces War for Weary Russian Stock Traders http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-10-02/oil-rout-replaces-war-for-weary-russian-stock-traders.html

Drillers Piling Up More Debt Than Oil Hunting Fortunes in Shale http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-09-08/halcon-s-wilson-drills-more-debt-than-oil-in-shale-bet.html
: Re: Brent crude $86.07 and U.S. crude $81.02 A Barrel Now
: EvadingGrid October 30, 2014, 08:37:03 PM
I'm sorry I got that last bit backwards !
: Re: Brent crude $86.07 and U.S. crude $81.02 A Barrel Now
: EvadingGrid October 30, 2014, 09:40:40 PM
I suppose another way of looking at this is to look even further east, and see how this as a bailout for China.
: OPEC Boosts Oil Output as Prices Slide to Four-Year Low
: Letsbereal November 01, 2014, 01:11:07 AM
OPEC Boosts Oil Output as Prices Slide to Four-Year Low http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-10-30/opec-boosts-oil-output-as-prices-slide-to-four-year-low.html

OPEC in ‘Price War’ as Iraq Says Members Fight for Market http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-10-31/opec-in-price-war-as-iraq-says-members-fight-for-market.html

No Guarantee Saudis to Repeat Price Cut That Drove Oil Lower http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-10-31/traders-split-on-repeat-of-saudi-price-cut-that-sparked-oil-drop.html

Petrobras Said to Skip Fuel Price Discussion at Board Meeting http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-10-31/petrobras-said-to-skip-fuel-price-discussion-at-board-meeting.html


U.S. Gasoline Price to Fall Below $3 for First Time Since 2010 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-10-31/u-s-gasoline-price-to-fall-below-3-for-first-time-since-2010.html

Gasoline at $3 Even Has Store Managers Filling Up http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-10-31/average-u-s-gasoline-drops-below-3-for-first-time-since-2010.html

Brent Caps Longest Run of Weekly Losses Since ’02 on Glut http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-10-31/brent-set-for-longest-run-of-weekly-losses-since-2002.html


U.S. Oil Rig Count Declines by 13, Baker Hughes Says http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-10-31/u-s-oil-rig-count-declines-by-13-baker-hughes-says.html

Oil Forecasters Diverge From Futures by Most This Year http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-10-31/oil-forecasters-diverge-from-futures-by-most-this-year.html

October Horror Show Averted in Stocks as Oil Gets Spooky http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-10-31/october-horror-show-averted-in-stocks-as-oil-gets-spooky.html


Brent crude $85.86 and U.S. crude $80.54 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Re: Brent crude $85.86 and U.S. crude $80.54 A Barrel Now
: EvadingGrid November 01, 2014, 09:15:52 AM
I wonder what the price will do when the markets open again.
: Re: Brent crude $85.86 and U.S. crude $80.54 A Barrel Now
: Geolibertarian November 01, 2014, 09:22:05 AM
I wonder what the price will do when the markets open again.

If the price goes up, it'll immediately be attributed to the value of the dollar going down.

If the price goes down, it'll immediately be attributed to something other than the value of the dollar.

If that sounds self-contradictory, it's because it is.

That's why I call it having one's ideological (http://recoveringaustrians.wordpress.com/top-ten-austrian-economic-lies-and-mistakes/) cake and eating it, too.
: Re: Brent crude $85.86 and U.S. crude $80.54 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal November 02, 2014, 07:18:37 PM
This is interesting:

And geopolitical (it appears to reveal that the kingdom is willing to tolerate Brent prices between USD80-USD90/bbl for a period of 1-2 years in order to achieve two aims: to slow increases in US tight oil production and to pressure other OPEC members to contribute to supply discipline.)

Of course, it’s not just religious ‘wars’, there is now the global oil ‘wars’ underway – as Stratfor discusses in crucial detail: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vp1kdMHCCJI

FROM: Saudi Arabia’s Two-Fronted “War” http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-02/saudi-arabias-two-fronted-war

U.S. Oil Rig Count Declines by 13, Baker Hughes Says http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-10-31/u-s-oil-rig-count-declines-by-13-baker-hughes-says.html

What suprises me is that the U.S. allows the the Saudies to supress the oil price which could mean that it somehow is in there interest too although this seems in contradiction with U.S. shale oil ambitions.

About That Shale Oil ‘Miracle’… http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-02/about-shale-oil-miracle
: Brent Crude Trades Near 4-Day Low as China Manufacturing Slows
: Letsbereal November 03, 2014, 01:28:15 PM
Brent Crude Trades Near 4-Day Low as China Manufacturing Slows
3 November 2014
, by Grant Smith (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-11-03/wti-holds-losses-on-chinese-manufacturing-index-brent-steady.html


Brent crude $85.68 and U.S. crude $80.25 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Saudi Arabia Raises Asia, Europe Prices; Cuts US Prices
: Letsbereal November 03, 2014, 03:36:28 PM
Saudi Arabia Raises Asia, Europe Prices; Cuts US Prices
3 November 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-03/saudi-arabia-raises-asia-europe-prices-cuts-us-prices

Excerpt TXT:

It appears, just as we warned two weeks ago, that the 'dumping strategy' designed to punish Obama's nemesis Putin could have morphed into a Saudi Arabian strategy to keep its foot on the neck of the US Shale Oil industry.

In an awkward headline for mainstream media to explain, The Kingdom has raised prices of its Arab Light crude exports to Asia and Europe but cut prices to the USA significantly, potentially pressuring domestic suppliers with foreign 'cheap' imports.

While not a primary course of US oil, we suspect the signaling of this move is more worrisome for Shale capex  (especially as we noted Saudi Arabia can survive 7.9 years at lower prices)

Forget currency wars, meet oil wars...

One of these regions is an up-and-coming marginal oil-producer with the swing-barrel of production.

----

As we warned previously,

So while we understand if Saudi Arabia is employing a dumping strategy to punish the Kremlin as per the "deal" with Obama's White House, very soon there will be a very vocal, very insolvent and very domestic shale community demanding answers from the Obama administration, as once again the "costs" meant to punish Russia end up crippling the only truly viable industry under the current presidency.

As a reminder, the last time Obama threatened Russia with "costs", he sent Europe into a triple-dip recession.

It would truly be the crowning achievement of Obama's career if, amazingly, he manages to bankrupt the US shale "miracle" next.


Brent crude $84.33 and U.S. crude $78.39 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Brent crude $83.55 and U.S. crude $77.54 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal November 04, 2014, 04:18:58 AM
Brent crude $83.55 and U.S. crude $77.54 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Saudi oil-price cut takes market by surprise
: Letsbereal November 04, 2014, 05:49:47 AM
Saudi oil-price cut takes market by surprise
4 November 2013
, By Nicole Freeman & Benoit Faucon & Summer Said (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/saudi-oil-price-cut-takes-market-by-surprise-2014-11-04

Move paves way for further price falls, pressures U.S. energy producers

Oil slides on speculation about Saudi’s pricing strategy
4 November 2013
, by Eric Yep (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-slides-on-speculation-about-saudis-pricing-strategy-2014-11-04-21031310

Mysteriously, Slumping Oil Prices "Result" In Both Higher And Lower Stock Prices
4 November 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-04/mysteriously-slumping-oil-prices-result-both-higher-and-lower-stock-prices

Oil Slumps To 3-Year Lows, Bond Yields Tumble, Stocks Stumble
4 November 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-04/oil-slumps-3-year-lows-bond-yields-tumble-stocks-stumble

Excerpt:

Overnight saw the weakness in the crude complex continue with WTI dumping to its lowest since October 2011 at $75.84.

Treasury yields tracked crude lower and 30Y yields are now down 4bps on the week (having been up 5bps at their peak yesterday before Saudi Arabia's pricing decision).

Stocks are sliding in the pre-market but have room to fall to catch down to oil/bonds implied weakness. Gold, silver, and copper are also lower even as the dollar slides lower.


Brent crude $82.12 and U.S. crude $75.93 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: API reports surprise decline in crude supplies
: Letsbereal November 04, 2014, 05:37:25 PM
API reports surprise decline in crude supplies
4 November 2014
, by Claudia Assis - San Francisco (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/api-reports-surprise-decline-in-crude-supplies-2014-11-04

The American Petroleum Institute late Tuesday reported a decline in U.S. oil supplies by 600,000 barrels in the week ended Oct. 31, according to reports.

The data comes a day ahead of the U.S. Energy Information Administration report. Analysts polled by FactSet forecast an increase by 1.2 million in crude supplies for the week.

The API, a trade group, also reported gasoline and distillates supplies each rose by 200,000 barrels on the week.

Meet the players helping drive oil to new lows
4 November 2014
, by William Watts (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/meet-the-players-helping-drive-oil-to-new-lows-2014-11-04

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC, can be a fearsome cartel when it’s members all pull together and global economic conditions, namely solidly rising oil demand, work in its favor.

But the situation can get ugly when production is in disarray, non-OPEC oil is flowing fast and demand has petered.

That’s the case right now and it’s making for an interesting melodrama as oil prices trade at three-year lows.

Here are the key players inside and outside of the cartel:

Saudi Arabia

The world’s largest petroleum exporter is the most important player in OPEC. A decision Monday by Saudi Arabia to cut crude prices for December delivery to the U.S. market sparked another leg down in oil futures.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has shown no inclination to throttle back production and serve its usual role as the world’s swing oil producer.

“Oil prices have been falling first and foremost because of the excessive supply of the stuff and more recently due to a growing number of OPEC members defecting as they produce more oil than agreed,” said Fawad Razaqzada, analyst at Forex.com.

“News that Saudi has cut its asking price to customers in the U.S. suggests even the largest OPEC producer is now worried about its market share.

This does not bode well for the future of the cartel.”

North America

North America’s shale-oil boom is contributing to a global glut in crude oil.

And the fact the Saudis lowered prices for the U.S. market while raising prices for Asia and Europe — albeit after consecutive price cuts — was taken by some analysts as confirmation that Saudis are all about derailing higher-cost North American producers.

See: Can Saudis beat North Dakota in an oil price war?

The Saudis see predictions that U.S. oil imports “could fall to zero by 2037 as a reason they need to nip the U.S. oil producer in the bud,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group.

“They are threatened by U.S. oil production and they are acting to try to break the U.S. producer’s back.”

Venezuela

While Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates enjoy enough of a financial buffer to cut production if they were so inclined, other OPEC members don’t have the luxury and have to keep pumping as much oil as possible to finance government spending, note analysts at political risk consulting firm Stratfor.

Of those, Venezuela is the most at risk for major political repercussions, they said in a Tuesday note: “A decrease in revenue flowing into government accounts is likely to hamper the government’s ability to fund imports, thereby exacerbating the current shortages of food and consumer goods.

The distribution of these heavily subsidized items has been crucial to securing the public’s support for the government.”

Moreover, Venezuela is most likely to see Saudi Arabia’s price cuts as an affront, says Commerzbank strategist Eugen Weinberg.

That’s because the country “mainly supplies the U.S. market and was one of the few OPEC members to demand that measures be taken to shore up oil prices,” he says.

Russia

Russia is arguably the world’s largest oil producer. Sanctions and weak oil prices have combined to take a toll on the country’s currency.

Russia’s central bank hiked rates aggressively last week in an attempt to halt the Russian ruble’s steep slide, though some analysts thought the measures smacked of panic.

Collapsing oil prices won’t help the situation.

Even if the decline is largely over, prices are likely to remain near current levels for some time, said Neil Shearing, chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics.

“At the same time, capital outflows are likely to remain high. We estimate that over $100 billion will flow out of Russia this year. All of this is a recipe for a weak ruble.”

Norway

A beneficiary of the North Sea oil boom, Norway hasn’t become addicted to spending its petroleum-fueled largesse.

It’s used the proceeds to build one of the world’s largest sovereign wealth funds.

But that doesn’t mean Norway won’t have to adjust to lower oil prices.

In a Tuesday report, the Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway warned that a “steep, lasting fall in the price of oil could have major negative effects on the Norwegian economy.”

Oil-related production earnings will take a hit while a further drop in the oil price will intensify a drop in oil investment, the agency said, noting that “other industries and households stand to be affected by reduced activity in the oil sector.”


Brent crude $82.82 and U.S. crude $77.43 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: U.S. Oil Suppliers Seen Hurt First by Slump as Saudi Pumps at $4
: Letsbereal November 06, 2014, 12:25:42 AM
U.S. Oil Suppliers Seen Hurt First by Slump as Saudi Pumps at $4
5 November 2014
, by Lananh Nguyen (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-11-05/u-s-oil-suppliers-seen-hurt-first-by-slump-as-saudi-pumps-at-4.html

U.S. shale-oil producers could curb new output as soon as next year should a price slump worsen, while OPEC nations including Saudi Arabia can keep pumping at a fraction of the cost, Barclays Plc said.

About half of proven and probable tight U.S. oil reserves would be “challenged” next year should West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, drop to $70 a barrel and stay there, analysts including Michael Cohen in New York said in a report today.

The grade, which fell into a bear market last month, traded at $77.91 as of 3:18 p.m. in London. Tight oil normally refers to oil extracted from shale rocks.

“If prices remain at these levels through 2015, it could compromise significant potential new volumes that are needed to offset declines from existing wells,” the analysts wrote in a note about U.S. supply.

“Tight oil producers are likely to be first affected in a low-price environment.”

The slump prompted speculation about whether the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, supplier of 40% of the world’s oil, will respond by cutting output.

While falling oil prices would strain some OPEC nations’ budgets, the group’s members have “low” production costs, Barclays said. For Saudi Arabia, that figure’s as little as $4 a barrel, according to the bank.

WTI fell 22% this year, pressured by rising U.S. production and slowing global demand growth.

The biggest producers in OPEC so far resisted calls to reduce production, amid speculation they’re discounting their crude to maintain market share.

OPEC Move

While Barclays anticipates a price recovery in the second half of next year, a sustained drop to $70 would cut the growth in shale output by 100,000 barrels a day and more in 2016, Barclays said.

Total supply growth outside OPEC will be 1.5 million barrels a day in 2015, it estimates.

Oil’s slide may continue in the short term unless OPEC intervenes or consumption rises, Barclays said.

The bank cut its oil-price forecasts twice last month, citing expectations that OPEC won’t cut supplies sufficiently to remove a global surplus.

The 12-member group meets in Vienna on Nov. 27 to discuss its production policy.

Barclays reduced its 2015 estimate for the average West Texas Intermediate price to $85 a barrel from $89 and Brent to $93 a barrel from $96, the bank said in a note last week.

“We expect downward price pressure to mount unless OPEC supplies less or demand rebounds,” the bank said.


Brent crude $83.08 and U.S. crude $78.86 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Saudi Cut In Oil Price For US May Lead To Price War
: Letsbereal November 06, 2014, 03:42:10 PM
Saudi Cut In Oil Price For US May Lead To Price War
6 November 2014
, by Andy Tully (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-06/saudi-cut-oil-price-us-may-lead-price-war


Brent crude $82.83 and U.S. crude $78.01 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/

Well if the fracking chumps want to play the tough guy … let’s take it lower!

Saudi Flexing Met With Crickets by U.S. Shale Frackers http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-11-05/saudi-flexing-met-with-crickets-by-u-s-shale-frackers.html

Brent crude $82.76 and U.S. crude $77.96 A Barrel Now
: Transocean Takes $2.76 Billion Charge Amid Rig Glut
: Letsbereal November 07, 2014, 11:22:44 AM
Brent Heads for Longest Weekly Decline Since 2001
7 November 2014
, by Grant Smith (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-11-06/wti-heads-for-sixth-weekly-decline-as-opec-cuts-demand-outlook.html

Transocean Takes $2.76 Billion Charge Amid Rig Glut
7 November 2014
, by David Wethe (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-11-07/transocean-delays-results-after-2-76-billion-impairment-charge.html

Transocean, owner of the biggest fleet of deep-water drilling rigs, is feeling the effect of an industrywide glut in the expensive vessels just as crude prices tumble.


Brent crude $83.58 and U.S. crude $78.83 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Shale Drillers Idle Rigs From Texas to Utah Amid Oil Rout
: Letsbereal November 09, 2014, 05:44:26 AM
Shale Drillers Idle Rigs From Texas to Utah Amid Oil Rout
7 November 2014
, by Lynn Doan (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-11-07/rigs-seeking-oil-in-u-s-drop-to-11-week-low.html


Brent crude $83.39 and U.S. crude $78.65 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Exposed! ISIS Sells Stolen Kirkuk Oil at $20 Per Barrel
: Letsbereal November 09, 2014, 07:50:19 PM
Exposed! ISIS Sells Stolen Kirkuk Oil at $20 Per Barrel? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_1FqPYLB6p8
Nov 9, 2014 DAHBOO77

ISIS sells stolen Kirkuk oil at $20 per barrel - Iraq Finance Ministry http://rt.com/news/203723-isis-iraq-oil-smuggle/


Brent crude $83.75 and U.S. crude $78.76 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Kuwait Oil Minister Sees No OPEC Output Cut This Month
: Letsbereal November 10, 2014, 03:20:48 PM
Kuwait Oil Minister Sees No OPEC Output Cut This Month
10 November 2014
, by Mahmoud Habboush and Anthony DiPaola (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-11-10/kuwait-oil-minister-sees-no-opec-output-cut-this-month.html

Libya Plans to Resume Output at Biggest Oil Field Today
10 November 2014
, by Saleh Sarrar (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-11-10/libya-plans-to-resume-output-at-biggest-oil-field-today.html


Brent crude $82.27 and U.S. crude $77.25 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Brent crude $82.05 and U.S. crude $77.05 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal November 11, 2014, 12:30:36 AM
Oil at $80 Is No Bar for BP, Total to Look for More Crude
10 November 2014
, by Anthony DiPaola - Nov 10, 2014 (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-11-10/oil-at-80-is-no-bar-for-bp-total-on-exploring-for-more-crude.html

OPEC’s Kuwait Sees No Oil-Output Cut at November Meeting
10 November 2014
, by Mahmoud Habboush and Anthony DiPaola (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-11-10/opec-s-kuwait-sees-no-oil-output-cut-at-november-meeting.html

Brent Slumps to 4-Year Low on Concern OPEC in No Hurry
10 November 2014
, by Moming Zhou (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-11-10/crude-rises-for-second-day-on-signs-of-chinese-growth.html

Oil Falls for Second Day as U.S. Supplies Seen Expanding
10 November 2014
, by Ben Sharples (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-11-10/wti-trades-near-one-week-low-as-u-s-crude-supplies-seen-rising.html

Weak Oil Prices Yet to Slow U.S. Shale Output: EIA Report
10 November 2014
, by  Dan Murtaugh (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-11-10/weak-oil-prices-yet-to-slow-u-s-shale-output-eia-report.html

OPEC’s Choice Is Pricing Power or Sales in New Oil Order
11 November 2014
, by Grant Smith and Maher Chmaytelli (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-11-11/opec-s-choice-is-pricing-power-or-sales-in-new-oil-order.html


Brent crude $82.05 and U.S. crude $77.05 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Brent crude $79.93 and U.S. crude $76.94 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal November 12, 2014, 09:08:20 PM
Brent crude $79.93 and U.S. crude $76.94 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Re: Brent crude $79.93 and U.S. crude $76.94 A Barrel Now
: EvadingGrid November 12, 2014, 09:38:21 PM
/me  jaw drops

So how many phracking operations are getting liquidated ?

: Re: Brent crude $79.93 and U.S. crude $76.94 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal November 13, 2014, 04:40:55 PM
/me  jaw drops

So how many phracking operations are getting liquidated ?

Donnow yet. A lot of these operations got money up front so can continue for a while, so I am told.

We'll have to see for how long they can do that.

If WTI Drops To $60, It Will "Trigger A Broader HY Market Default Cycle", Says Deutsche
13 November 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-13/if-wti-drops-60-deutsche-expects-one-third-high-yield-energy-space-default

There Will Be Blood - How The Fed Has Flooded The Shale Patch With Junk Debt
13 November 2014
, by Wolf Richter (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-13/there-will-be-blood-how-fed-has-flooded-shale-patch-junk-debt
: Brent crude $77.92 and U.S. crude $74.41 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal November 13, 2014, 04:42:44 PM
Oil Tankers Stream Toward China as Price Drop Sparks Boom
12 November 2014
, by Naomi Christie (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-11-12/oil-tankers-stream-toward-china-as-price-drop-sparks-boom.html

Kurds Gain Financial Freedom From Baghdad as Oil Exports Surge
12 November 2014
, by Firat Kayakiran (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-11-13/kurds-gain-financial-freedom-from-baghdad-as-oil-exports-surge.html


Brent crude $77.92 and U.S. crude $74.41 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Brent crude $77.73 and U.S. crude $73.91 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal November 14, 2014, 02:00:54 AM
Crude Production Surges Above 9 Million Barrels a Day http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-11-13/crude-oil-production-surges-above-9-million-barrel-a-day.html

Mexico Hedged 2015 Oil at $76.40 a Barrel Amid Record Low http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-11-13/mexico-hedged-2015-oil-at-76-40-a-barrel-amid-record-low.html

Keystone Left Behind as Canadian Oil Pours Into U.S. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-11-14/keystone-left-behind-as-canadian-oil-pours-into-u-s-.html

Kurds Reach Partial Oil-Export Deal With Iraq Government http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-11-13/kurds-reach-partial-oil-export-deal-with-iraq-government.html

Norway Embraces Chinese Cash in Race for Arctic Oil Riches http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-11-12/norway-embraces-chinese-cash-in-race-for-arctic-energy-riches.html


Brent crude $77.73 and U.S. crude $73.91 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Shale Oil: Expensive, Over-Hyped, & Short-Lived
: Letsbereal November 15, 2014, 08:51:49 PM
Shale Oil: Expensive, Over-Hyped, & Short-Lived
15 November 2014
, by Adam Taggart (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-15/shale-oil-expensive-over-hyped-short-lived


Brent crude $79.41 and U.S. crude $75.82 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: The Real Reason For Cheap Oil and Gas
: Letsbereal November 17, 2014, 09:27:51 AM
The Real Reason For Cheap Oil and Gas https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OscgxuWPmgw

Nov 16, 2014 WeAreChange


Brent crude $78.44 and U.S. crude $75.05 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Arctic Finds Still Viable for Statoil as Crude Falls Below $8
: Letsbereal November 18, 2014, 05:06:39 AM
Arctic Finds Still Viable for Statoil as Crude Falls Below $80
17 November 2014
, by Mikael Holter (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-11-17/arctic-finds-still-viable-for-statoil-as-crude-falls-below-80.html


Brent crude $79.88 and U.S. crude $76.28 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Brent crude $78.48 and U.S. crude $74.21 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal November 18, 2014, 09:23:33 PM
Iraq’s Biggest Oil Plant to Reopen After Militants Moved  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-11-18/iraq-s-biggest-oil-refinery-to-reopen-as-army-repels-militants.html

Halliburton May Sell Fewer Baker Assets Than Expected http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-11-17/halliburton-plans-to-sell-less-baker-assets-than-expected.html

Big Oil Deals Return After Price Plunges, as Halliburton Moves First http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-11-16/big-oil-deals-return-as-halliburton-moves-first-real-m-a.html


Brent crude $78.48 and U.S. crude $74.21 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Shell Takes Norwegian Oilfield Out Of Commission Earlier Than Planned
: Letsbereal November 19, 2014, 10:56:21 PM
Shell Takes Norwegian Oilfield Out Of Commission Earlier Than Planned
19 November 2014
, (NU)
(google trans from Dutch) http://tinyurl.com/lorub9w

ORG http://www.nu.nl/beurs/3933205/noors-olieveld-shell-kan-eerder-productie.html


Brent crude $78.10 and U.S. crude $74.52 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Brent crude $80.36 and U.S. crude $76.51 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal November 22, 2014, 07:34:05 PM
Brent crude $80.36 and U.S. crude $76.51 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Two-thirds of global oil production comes from non-OPEC producer
: Letsbereal November 24, 2014, 08:20:56 AM
OPEC MEETING Vienna on November 27

Two-thirds of global oil production comes from non-OPEC producers

OPEC's Easy Days Setting Oil Production Are Over, Veteran Says; You Need Russia, Norway, Mexico http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-11-23/opec-easy-decision-days-seen-over-by-former-qatari-oil-minister.html

“If OPEC asked me for an advice, I’d tell them, ‘Look, you can’t do it alone, you need to seek help from non-OPEC producers and make everyone share the responsibility,’” Al Attiyah said.

“Within OPEC there are no eternal friends, nor enemies. There are only shared interests.”


Brent Plunge To $60 If OPEC Fails To Cut, Junk Bond Rout, Default Cycle To Follow http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-24/brent-plunge-60-if-opec-fails-cut-junk-bond-rout-default-cycle-follow


Brent crude $79.95 and U.S. crude $76.23 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Brent crude $78.84 and U.S. crude $74.82 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal November 25, 2014, 01:20:06 PM
Brent crude $78.84 and U.S. crude $74.82 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Interview with former OPEC Officer - Casey Energy EXCLUSIVE
: Letsbereal November 26, 2014, 10:19:32 AM
Interview with former OPEC Officer - Casey Energy EXCLUSIVE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MbX49jre2G4
Nov 25, 2014 Casey Research

US "Secret" Deal With Saudis Backfires After Oil Minister Says US Should Cut First http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-26/us-secret-deal-saudis-backfires-after-oil-minister-says-us-should-cut-first

For The World’s Largest Rig Operator, The “Recovery” Is Now Worse Than The Post-Lehman Crash http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-26/worlds-largest-rig-operator-recovery-now-worse-post-lehman-collapse

19 US Shale Areas That Are Suddenly Endangered, “The Shale Revolution Doesn’t Work At $80″ http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-26/19-us-shale-areas-are-suddenly-endangered-shale-revolution-doesnt-work-80

“It’s Different This Time?” What Happened To US Oil Drillers During The Last Price War http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-26/its-different-time-what-happened-us-oil-drillers-during-last-price-war


Brent crude $77.45 and U.S. crude $73.40 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Fracking Fail? 'US shale oil production to decline in 2015'
: Letsbereal November 27, 2014, 05:21:22 AM
Fracking Fail? 'US shale oil production to decline in 2015' https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pzMlC2FbiaM
Nov 27, 2014 RT


Brent crude $76.15 and U.S. crude $72.33 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Oil Prices Collapse After OPEC Keeps Oil Production Unchanged
: Letsbereal November 27, 2014, 10:29:59 AM
Oil Prices Collapse After OPEC Keeps Oil Production Unchanged - Live Conference Feed
27 November 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-27/oil-prices-collapse-after-opec-keeps-oil-production-unchanged


Brent crude $75.16 and U.S. crude $71.21 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Re: Brent crude $75.16 and U.S. crude $71.21 A Barrel Now
: EvadingGrid November 27, 2014, 11:25:34 AM
Brent falls by $5 to $72.74 a barrel . . .

: Re: Brent crude $75.16 and U.S. crude $71.21 A Barrel Now
: jerryweaver November 27, 2014, 11:26:53 AM
The bankster cartel must be subsidizing the western Pietro interests just like what is going on in the copper silver and gold mining. Apparently china is getting the first option on metals . Is this the same deal with oil?
: Re: Brent crude $71.18 - its falling like a lead zepplin :)
: EvadingGrid November 27, 2014, 11:28:27 AM
Correction Brent is still falling $71.18

/me  stares at live traders feed graph

OMG

It looks like the swiss alps . . .
: Re: Brent crude $75.16 and U.S. crude $71.21 A Barrel Now
: EvadingGrid November 27, 2014, 11:35:46 AM
Saudi Arabia's oil minister left the conference without making any comment
: Re: Brent crude $75.16 and U.S. crude $71.21 A Barrel Now
: jerryweaver November 27, 2014, 11:46:55 AM
Is The Sun Setting on Opec's Reign?

Oil group faces biggest meeting in 20 years as in-fighting and a US resurgence curb its ability to hold prices.

It wouldn't be the first time the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries has met in an atmosphere of deep division, bordering on outright hatred.

In 1976, Saudi Arabia's former Oil Minister Ahmed Zaki Yamani stormed out of the Opec gathering early when other members of the cartel wouldn't agree to the wishes of his new master, King Khaled.

Opec's 166th meeting in Vienna this week looks as if it could end in a similarly acrimonious fashion with Saudi Arabia and several other members at loggerheads over what to do about falling oil prices.

http://m.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11363276





: Brent crude $72.96 and U.S. crude $69.05 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal November 27, 2014, 01:50:33 PM
Brent crude $72.96 and U.S. crude $69.05 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Re: Brent crude $72.96 and U.S. crude $69.05 A Barrel Now
: Geolibertarian November 27, 2014, 03:11:15 PM
That "printing press" operator sure is having difficulty making up his mind, isn't he?

Or perhaps, just perhaps, the "value of the dollar" isn't the overriding factor that Austrians (http://recoveringaustrians.wordpress.com/top-ten-austrian-economic-lies-and-mistakes/) routinely insist it is.

http://www.prisonplanet.com/is-there-a-financial-scam-behind-the-rise-in-oil-and-food-prices.html (http://www.prisonplanet.com/is-there-a-financial-scam-behind-the-rise-in-oil-and-food-prices.html)

Is There a Financial Scam Behind the Rise in Oil and Food Prices?

Danny Schechter
Global Research (http://www.globalresearch.ca/is-there-a-financial-scam-behind-the-rise-in-oil-and-food-prices/24386)
April 19, 2011

The global economy and its recovery, and the living standards of millions of plain folks, are now at risk from the sudden rise in oil and commodity prices.

Gas at the pump is up, and going higher. Food prices are following.

The consequences are catastrophic for the global poor as their costs go up while their income doesn’t. It’s menacing American workers too, who in large part have not seen a meaningful raise since the days of Reagan (keeping it this way is clearly behind the current flurry of attacks on unions).

Already, unrest in the Middle East and many African countries is being blamed for these dramatic increases. It seems as if this threat to global stability is being largely ignored in our media, one that treats the oil business as just another mystical world of free market trading.

Why is it happening? Why all the volatility? Is oil getting scarcer, leading to price increases? Is the cost of food, similarly, a reflection of naturally increasing commodity prices?

While it’s true that natural disasters and droughts play some role in this unchecked price inflation, it also seems apparent that something else is attracting increasing attention, even if most of our media fails to explore what is a political time bomb while most political leaders shrug their shoulder and ignore it.

President Obama recently said there is nothing he can do about the hike in oil and food prices.

Critics say the problem is that government and media outlets alike refuse to recognize what’s really going on: unchecked speculation!

Not everyone buys into this suspicion. In fact, it is one of more intense subjects of debate in economics. Princeton University economist Paul Krugman pooh-poohs the impact of speculation counter posing the traditional argument that oil prices are set by supply and demand.

The Economist Magazine agrees, summing up its views with a pithy phrase, “Speculation does not drive the oil price. Driving does.”

Others, like oil industry analyst Michael Klare of Hampshire College in the US see demand outdistancing supply:

“Consider the recent rise in the price of oil just a faint and early tremor heralding the oilquake to come. Oil won’t disappear from international markets, but in the coming decades it will never reach the volumes needed to satisfy projected world demand, which means that, sooner rather than later, scarcity will become the dominant market condition.”

Usually you hear this debate in scholarly circles or read it in political tracts where orthodox views collide with more alarmist projections about the oil supply “peaking.”

But officials in the Third World don’t see the subject as academic. Reserve Bank of India Governor Duvvuri Subbarao charges “Speculative movements in commodity derivative markets are also causing volatility in prices,” he said.

The World Bank is meeting on this issue this week because it is seen as a matter of “utmost urgency.”

“The price of food is a matter of life and death for the very poorest people in the world,” said Tom Arnold, CEO of Concern Worldwide, the international humanitarian agency, ahead of his participation at The Open Forum on Food at World Bank headquarters.

He adds, “…with many families spending up to 80% of their income on basic foods to survive, even the slightest increase in price can have devastating effects and become a crises for the poorest.”

Journalist Josh Clark argues on the website “How Stuff Works” that much of the oil speculation is rooted in the financial crisis, “The next time you drive to the gas station, only to find prices are still sky high compared to just a few years ago, take notice of the rows of foreclosed houses you’ll pass along the way. They may seem like two parts of a spell of economic bad luck, but high gas prices and home foreclosures are actually very much interrelated. Before most people were even aware there was an economic crisis, investment managers abandoned failing mortgage-backed securities and looked for other lucrative investments. What they settled on was oil futures.”

The debate within the industry is more subdued, perhaps to avoid a public fight between suppliers and distributors who don’t want to rock the boat. But some officials like Dan Gilligan, president of the Petroleum Marketers Association, representing 8,000 retail and wholesale suppliers has spoken out.

He argues, “Approximately 60 to 70 percent of the oil contracts in the futures markets are now held by speculative entities. Not by companies that need oil, not by the airlines, not by the oil companies. But by investors who profit money from their speculative positions.”

Now, a prominent and popular market analyst is throwing caution to the wind by blowing the whistle on speculators.

Finance expert Phil Davis runs a website and widely read newsletter to monitor stocks and options trades. He’s a professional’s professional, whose grandfather taught him to buy stocks when he was just ten years old.

His website is Phil’s Stock World, and stocks are his world. He’s subtitled the site, “High Finance for Real People.”

He is usually a sober and calm analyst, not known as maverick or dissenter.

When I met Phil the other night, he was on fire, enraged by what he believes is the scam of the century that no one wants to talk about, because so many powerful people armed with legions of lawyers want unquestioning allegiance, and will sue you into silence.

He studies the oil/food issue carefully and has concluded, “It’s a scam folks, it’s nothing but a huge scam and it’s destroying the US economy as well as the entire global economy but no one complains because they are ‘only’ stealing about $1.50 per gallon from each individual person in the industrialized world.”

“It’s the top 0.01% robbing the next 39.99% – the bottom 60% can’t afford cars anyway (they just starve quietly to death, as food prices climb on fuel costs). If someone breaks into your car and steals a $500 stereo, you go to the police, but if someone charges you an extra $30 every time you fill up your tank 50 times a year ($1,500) you shut up and pay your bill. Great system, right?”

Phil is just getting started, as he delves into the intricacies of the NYMEX market that handles these trades:

“The great thing about the NYMEX is that the traders don’t have to take delivery on their contracts, they can simply pay to roll them over to the next settlement price, even if no one is actually buying the barrels. That’s how we have developed a massive glut of 677 Million barrels worth of contracts in the front four months on the NYMEX and, come rollover day – that will be the amount of barrels “on order” for the front 3 months, unless a lot barrels get dumped at market prices fast.”

“Keep in mind that the entire United States uses ‘just’ 18M barrels of oil a day, so 677M barrels is a 37-day supply of oil. But, we also make 9M barrels of our own oil and import ‘just’ 9M barrels per day, and 5M barrels of that is from Canada and Mexico who, last I heard, aren’t even having revolutions. So, ignoring North Sea oil Brazil and Venezuela and lumping Africa in with OPEC, we are importing 3Mbd from unreliable sources and there is a 225-day supply under contract for delivery at the current price or cheaper plus we have a Strategic Petroleum Reserve that holds another 727 Million barrels (full) plus 370M barrels of commercial storage in the US (also full) which is another 365.6 days of marginal oil already here in storage in addition to the 225 days under contract for delivery. “

These contracts for oil outnumber their actual delivery, a sign of speculation and market manipulation, as oil companies win government authorizations for wells but then don’t open them for exploration or exploitation. It’s all a game of manipulating oil supply to keep prices up. And no one seems to be regulating it.

What Phil sees is a giant but intricate game of market manipulation and rigging by a cartel—not just an industry—that actually has loaded tankers criss-crossing the oceans but only landing when the price is right.

“There is nothing that the conga-line of tankers between here and OPEC would like to do more than unload an extra 277 Million barrels of crude at $112.79 per barrel (Friday’s close on open contracts and price) but, unfortunately, as I mentioned last week, Cushing, Oklahoma (Where oil is stored) is already packed to the gills with oil and can only handle 45M barrels if it started out empty so it is, very simply, physically impossible for those barrels to be delivered. This did not, however, stop 287M barrels worth of May contracts from trading on Friday and GAINING $2.49 on the day. “

He asks, “Who is buying 287,494 contracts (1,000 barrels per contract) for May delivery that can’t possibly be delivered for $2.49 more than they were priced the day before? These are the kind of questions that you would think regulators would be asking – if we had any.”

The TV news magazine 60 Minutes spoke with Dan Gilligan who noted that, investors don’t actually take delivery of the oil. “All they do is buy the paper, and hope that they can sell it for more than they paid for it. Before they have to take delivery.”

He says they make their fortunes “on the volatility that exists in the market. They make it going up and down.”

Payam Sharifi, at the University of Missouri-Kansas City, notes that even as the rise in oil prices threatens the world economy, there is almost total silence on the danger:

“This issue ought to be discussed again with a renewed interest – but the media and much of the populace at large have simply accepted high food and oil prices as an unavoidable fact of life, without any discussion of the causes of these price rises aside from platitudes.”

What can we do about that?


http://www.counterpunch.org/2008/10/01/the-recurring-myth-of-peak-oil/ (http://www.counterpunch.org/2008/10/01/the-recurring-myth-of-peak-oil/)

The Recurring Myth of Peak Oil

By Ismael Hossein-Zadeh
CounterPunch
October 1, 2008

The Peak Oil theory maintains that world production of conventional oil will soon reach a maximum, or peak, and decline thereafter, with grave socio-economic consequences. Some proponents of the theory argue that world oil production has already peaked, and is now in a terminal decline [1].

Although, on the face of it, this sounds like a fairly reasonable proposition, it has been challenged on both theoretical and empirical grounds. While some critics have called it a myth, others have branded it as a money-making scam promoted by the business interests that are vested in the fossil fuel industry, in the business of war and militarism, and in the Wall Street financial giants that are engaged in manipulative oil speculation.

Regardless of its validity (or lack thereof), the fact is that Peak Oil has had significant policy and political implications. It has also generated considerable reactions among various interest groups and political activists.

While environmental and similar activists have used Peak Oil to promote more vigorous conservation and more energetic pursuit of alternative fuels, the oil industry and its representatives in and out of the government have taken advantage of Peak Oil to argue in support of unrestrained extraction of oil and expanded drilling in the offshore or wildlife regions.

Because of its simple logic and facile appeal, Peak Oil has also led many ordinary citizens, burdened by high fuel bills during periods of energy crisis, to support unrestrained or expanded drilling. According to a recent Rasmussen poll, 57 percent of Americans favor more offshore drilling. Misled and misplaced popular perceptions, in turn, play into the hands of the oil industry and their representatives to lobby for the lifting of the Federal ban on oil production in hitherto restricted regions.

Citing voter anger over soaring energy prices, Senator John McCain of Arizona, the Republican presidential nominee, recently argued that opening vast stretches of the country’s coastline to oil exploration would help America eliminate the dependence on foreign oil. "We have untapped oil reserves of at least 21 billion barrels in the United States. But a broad federal moratorium stands in the way of energy exploration and production," he said. "It is time for the federal government to lift these restrictions" [2].

Perhaps the financial giants of New York and London have benefited the most from the misleading implications of Peak Oil: “As much as 60% of today’s crude oil price is pure speculation driven by large trader banks and hedge funds. It has nothing to do with the convenient myths of Peak Oil. It has to do with control of oil and its price. . . . Since the advent of oil futures trading and the two major London and New York oil futures contracts, control of oil prices has left OPEC and gone to Wall Street. It is a classic case of the tail that wags the dog,” points out William Engdahl, a top expert on energy and financial markets [3].

Just as Peak Oil plays into the hands of manipulative speculators and beneficiaries of fossil fuel, so too can it be used by the champions of unilateral wars and military adventures, as it implies that war power and military strength are key to access or control of the “shrinking” or “soon-to-be-shrinking” oil. It thus provides fodder for the cannons of war profiteering militarists who are constantly on the look out to invent new enemies and find new pretexts for continued war and escalation of military spending—that is, for the looting of the national treasury, or public money.

By the same token that Peak Oil can serve as a pretext for war and military adventures, it can also serve as a disarming or pacifying factor for many citizens who accept the Peak Oil thesis and, therefore, internalize responsibility for U.S. foreign policy every time they fill their gas tank. In a vicarious way, they may feel that they own the war!

Thus, Peak Oil serves as a powerful trap and a clever manipulation that lets the real forces of war and militarism (the military-industrial complex and the pro-Israel lobby), and the main culprits behind the soaring energy prices (the Wall Street financial giants engaged in manipulative commodity speculation) off the hook; it is a fabulous distraction. All evils are blamed on a commodity upon which we are all utterly dependent.

Not only millions of lay-citizens, but also many scholars and academics have taken the bait and fallen right into this trap by arguing that recent U.S. wars of choice are driven primarily by oil and other “scarce” resources. More broadly, they argue that most wars of the future, like the recent and/or present ones, will be driven by conflicts over natural resources, especially energy and water—hence, for example, the title of Michael T. Klare’s popular book, Resource Wars [4].

As a number of critics have pointed out, this is reminiscent of Thomas R. Malthus’s theory (http://forum.prisonplanet.com/index.php?topic=185377.msg1097547#msg1097547) of “scarcity” and “overpopulation.” Malthus (1766-1834), a self-styled British economist, argued that the woes and vagaries of capitalism such as poverty, inequality and unemployment are largely to be blamed on the poor and the unemployed, since they produce too many mouths to be fed, or too many hands to be employed.

In a similar fashion, Peak Oil implies that current crisis in energy (and other commodities) markets is to be blamed, in part, on less-developed or relatively poorer nations such as India and China for growing “too fast” and creating “too much” demand on “scarce” resources. (Similarities between the Peak Oil theory and the Malthusian theory of scarcity are further discussed below.)

[Continued... (http://www.counterpunch.org/2008/10/01/the-recurring-myth-of-peak-oil/)]
: Re: Brent crude $72.96 and U.S. crude $69.05 A Barrel Now
: EvadingGrid November 27, 2014, 07:05:07 PM
Well there was a slight rally for the price towards the end of trading, and the price steadied off between $72.20 - $72.80. What will happen when the markets next open, is any ones guess. Would have to look at the volume to see if the price is really going to hold, or worse case if its low volume that would be because the buyers are not satisfied with the sellers price, and a when the volume dries up the sellers will cave in and the price will crash again.

Now while nobody in there right mind wants to see the price rise too much. It is worth remembering that a lot of  American, British, Norwegians and other nice folks are actually oil producers. The Saudi dumping of the price, and in collusion with British and American Politicians is actually hurting ordinary folks when the price gets ridiculously low. Not only jobs are at stake, but the govts tax increase takes a dive - and they start looking at other ways to make up the shortfall. So there really is such a thing as too low a price.

Oh, and you will not be seeing the price fall at the pumps, as pump prices only go up, not down.

: Brent crude $72.58 and U.S. crude $68.55 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal November 27, 2014, 08:30:43 PM
Brent crude $72.58 and U.S. crude $68.55 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Brent crude $70.58 and U.S. crude $66.46 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal November 28, 2014, 02:02:17 PM
Brent crude $70.58 and U.S. crude $66.46 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Brent crude $70.08 and U.S. crude $65.99 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal November 28, 2014, 02:25:19 PM
Brent crude $70.08 and U.S. crude $65.99 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Crude Carnage Continues After Close: WTI Now $65 Handle, Lowest Since 2009
: Letsbereal November 28, 2014, 03:52:42 PM
Crude Carnage Continues After Close: WTI Now $65 Handle, Lowest Since 2009
28 November 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-28/crude-oil-continues-crash-after-close-wti-65-handle

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/11-overflow/20141129_WTI4_0.jpg) (http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/11-overflow/20141129_WTI4.jpg)

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/11-overflow/20141129_WTI2_0.jpg) (http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/11-overflow/20141129_WTI2.jpg)

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/11-overflow/20141129_WTI1.jpg)


Brent crude $70.15 and U.S. crude $66.15 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: DOLLAR INDEX vs CRUDE OIL GRAPHS
: Letsbereal November 28, 2014, 05:16:22 PM
(http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2014/11/24/saupload_112314-crude-oil.png)

(http://www.theautomaticearth.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/BrentPricevsDollarIndex.jpg)

(http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/2013/May/US-dollar-index.png)

(http://forexcrunch.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/US-Dollar-Index-Obama-Bush.png)

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/11-overflow/20141129_WTI1.jpg)
: DOLLAR INDEX vs CRUDE OIL, Somtins rotten!
: Letsbereal November 28, 2014, 05:42:56 PM
Bottoms Up Line:

Of course there is some correlation between crude oil prices in dollars and the, weighted in other currencies, dollar index.

Especially lately it seems. So dollar up means a stronger dollar thus crude oil prices can go down in dollars.

However this dollar-price vs crude-oil-price correlation is not always there. And as we can see from the graph ‘trade weighted US dollar index’ the overall dollar trend is down.

For me the question is, why did crude oil prices go up instead of down after this crises started late 2007, beginning 2008 what oil experts logically predicted but what didn’t happen?

Was that all because of a weak dollar? I doubt it.

Even more doubtful is that it all was a question of oil demand and the amount of oil availability. Somtins rotten in the state of Denmark.

Was that the stink of funny QE money pumped into oil speculation? It is rotten! http://youtu.be/3OGG75HRL7M?t=7m
: Re: Brent crude $70.15 and U.S. crude $66.15 A Barrel Now
: EvadingGrid November 28, 2014, 08:11:09 PM
It just don't make sense too me  :o

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrodollar
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrodollar_recycling
: DOLLAR INDEX vs CRUDE OIL 3-D
: Letsbereal November 28, 2014, 08:38:39 PM
I think like with ‘oil in dollars’ and ‘dollars weighted’ one has to think more 3-D, meaning that instead of saying that there is one single force there could be more forces at work.

The question changes in which force had the upper hand at in a giving moment?

1- Manipulation/Speculation
2- Demand and Supply
3- Currency Volatility
: Re: Brent crude $70.15 and U.S. crude $66.15 A Barrel Now
: jerryweaver November 28, 2014, 08:51:12 PM
I think like with ‘oil in dollars’ and ‘dollars weighted’ one has to think more 3-D, meaning that instead of saying that there is one single force there could be more forces at work.

The question changes in which force had the upper hand at in a giving moment?

1- Manipulation/Speculation
2- Demand and Supply
3- Currency Volatility

This speculation, does it exist on the presumption that this the "free market " at work?

Maybe the Wizard wants lower prices at the pump to placate the munchkins.
: Re: Brent crude $70.15 and U.S. crude $66.15 A Barrel Now
: jerryweaver November 28, 2014, 11:40:37 PM
http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-27/opec-policy-ensures-u-s-shale-crash-russian-oil-tycoon-says


I wonder how much this has to do with Isis, greater Israel, and us military and foreign policy. I am sure its someone's strategy Not free market.
: Re: Brent crude $70.15 and U.S. crude $66.15 A Barrel Now
: jerryweaver November 29, 2014, 01:02:52 AM
http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-scale-of-wall-streets-holdings-are-unprecedented-in-u-s-history-senate-report/5416726

Senate Report: Scale of Wall Street Holdings Are “Unprecedented in U.S. History”
By Pam Martens: November 25, 2014

Mystery solved!   The banks are crashing the commodities market. Monopolistic Capitalism! They buy up the bankrupted businesses with the Bail Out Money.


Last Thursday, the U.S. Senate’s Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, chaired by Senator Carl Levin, released an alarming 396-page report that details how Wall Street’s too-big-to-fail banks have quietly, and often stealthily through shell companies, gained ownership of a stunning amount of the nation’s critical industrial commodities like oil, aluminum, copper, natural gas, and even uranium. The report said the scale of these bank holdings “appears to be unprecedented in U.S. history.”

Adding to the hubris of the situation, the Wall Street banks’ own regulator, the Federal Reserve, gave its blessing to this unprecedented and dangerous encroachment by banking interests into industrial commodity ownership and has effectively looked the other way as the banks moved into industrial commerce activities like owning pipelines and power plants.

For more than a century, Federal law has encouraged the separation of banking and commerce. The role of banks has been seen as providing prudent corporate lending to facilitate the growth of commerce, not to compete with it through unfair advantage by having access to cheap capital from the Federal Reserve’s lending programs. Additionally, the mega banks are holding trillions of dollars in FDIC insured deposits; if they experienced a catastrophic commercial accident through a ruptured pipeline, tanker oil spill, or power plant explosion, it could once again put the taxpayer on the hook for a bailout.

The Levin report addresses the element of catastrophic risk, noting:

While the likelihood of an actual catastrophe remained remote, those activities carried risks that banks normally avoided altogether.  Goldman, for example, bought a uranium business that carried the risk of a nuclear incident, as well as open pit coal mines that carried potential risks of methane explosions, mining mishaps, and air and water pollution…Morgan Stanley owned and invested in extensive oil storage and transport facilities and a natural gas pipeline company which, together, carried risks of fire, pipeline ruptures, natural gas explosions, and oil spills.  JPMorgan bought dozens of power plants whose risks included fire, explosions, and air and water pollution.  Throughout most of their history, U.S. banks have not incurred those types of catastrophic event risks.

One would think that the mega banks’ regulator, the Federal Reserve, would be the first line of defense against this type of dangerous sprawl by banks. According to the Levin Subcommittee report, the Federal Reserve was actually the facilitator of the sprawl by the banks. The report notes:

Without the complementary orders and letters issued by the Federal Reserve, many of those physical commodity activities would not otherwise have been permissible ‘financial’ activities under federal banking law. By issuing those complementary orders, the Federal Reserve directly facilitated the expansion of financial holding companies into new physical commodity activities.

After the Wall Street financial collapse of 2008, which galvanized the public and Congress to the trillions in taxpayer dollars that was required to shore up the financial system from out of control global casinos masquerading as banks, the Federal Reserve quietly commissioned a study to determine just how sprawling the commodity holdings and operations of the mega banks had become. The study was conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Commodities Team. It appears that Senator Levin’s Subcommittee has only been allowed to see a “2012 Summary Report” of that study and the public is not being allowed to see even that. The Levin report makes multiple references to the document, each time noting that it is “sealed.”

http://wallstreetonparade.com/2014/11/senate-report-scale-of-wall-street-holdings-are-unprecedented-in-u-s-history/


: Re: Brent crude $70.15 and U.S. crude $66.15 A Barrel Now
: EvadingGrid November 29, 2014, 07:24:00 AM
We could be seeing DEFLATION

Now while people are brought up to understand the evils of inflation, deflation is much, much, much worse.
: Here Comes $60 Oil as OPEC Tests U.S. Shale: Chart of the Day
: Letsbereal November 29, 2014, 09:18:53 AM
Here Comes $60 Oil as OPEC Tests U.S. Shale: Chart of the Day
28 November 2014
, by Rupert Rowling (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-28/here-comes-60-oil-as-opec-tests-u-s-shale-chart-of-the-day.html

(http://www.bloomberg.com/image/ia.tqzP1acJ0.jpg)

OPEC’s decision not to try and eliminate an oil-supply glut means the biggest crash in six years won’t stop until prices reach $60 a barrel, according to firms including Nomura Holdings Inc. and Deutsche Bank AG.

The CHART OF THE DAY shows how the group supplying 40% of the world’s oil has kept pumping at or above its own production limit of 30 million barrels a day even as output in the U.S. climbs to the highest in decades.

Crude collapsed into a bear market this year as the U.S. boom contributed to a global surplus that Venezuela estimates at 2 million barrels a day, more than the production of five OPEC members.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which said Nov. 27 it is taking no action to reduce supply, has exceeded its target in all but four of the 34 months since it took effect at the start of 2012, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“At $60 you start to price out a lot of critical mass production around the world,” said Marina Petroleka, an analyst at Business Monitor International, a unit of Fitch Group.

“U.S. shale, deep water in the Gulf of Mexico is affected. It doesn’t price out a lot of Middle East OPEC supply.”

Brent crude, the global benchmark, slumped as low as $69.78 a barrel yesterday, the lowest since May 2010. West Texas Intermediate fell to the lowest since 2009.

The price floor is now at about $60 a barrel or even less, according to firms including Deutsche Bank AG, BNP Paribas SA and Petromatrix GmbH.


Brent crude $70.15 and U.S. crude $66.15 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Re: Brent crude $70.15 and U.S. crude $66.15 A Barrel Now
: jerryweaver November 29, 2014, 10:23:12 AM
We could be seeing DEFLATION

Now while people are brought up to understand the evils of inflation, deflation is much, much, much worse.


Ya these days I'm ending every. Sentence with " please do some research" when I speak to the unaware lied2.
The small farmers here in central California are in real trouble.

A buddy of mine is the engineer on the oil train . It goes from San ardo to long beach. At 80 a barrel the maintenance dollar just wasn't adequate for all the oil transportation the system is at its limit. He fears for his life
: THE OIL SLAUGHTER
: Letsbereal November 29, 2014, 12:15:22 PM
THE OIL SLAUGHTER

OPEC Inaction Signals Pain for Refiners With Costly Oil http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-11-28/opec-inaction-signals-pain-for-refiners-with-costly-oil.html

Transocean Bears Bet Oil, Rig Oversupply to Hurt More: Options http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-11-28/transocean-bears-bet-oil-rig-oversupply-to-hurt-more-options.html

Oil Crash Will See Drillers Cut Spending to Shield Dividends http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-11-28/oil-crash-will-see-producers-chop-spending-to-protect-dividends.html

OPEC Gusher to Hit Weakest Players, From Wildcatters to Iran http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-11-28/opec-refusal-to-pressure-oil-s-weakest-from-iran-to-shale.html

Oil Price Drop After OPEC Decision Is ‘Terrible’: Iraq Minister http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-11-28/oil-price-drop-after-opec-decision-is-terrible-iraq-minister.html

Oil Price Slump Kills Greenland Independence Hopes Amid Election http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-11-28/greenlanders-vote-as-oil-price-slump-kills-independence-dreams.html

Singapore Wealthy Stung as Crude Rout Sinks Bonds: Asean Credit http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-11-27/singapore-wealthy-stung-as-crude-rout-sinks-bonds-asean-credit.html

Oil Rout Ripples Through Latin America as Projects Slow http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-11-28/venezuelan-bonds-decline-after-opec-nixes-cuts-in-oil-production.html

Nigerian Naira Drops in Worst Month Since 2008 on OPEC http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-11-28/nigerian-naira-drops-for-worst-month-since-2008-on-opec.html

Sasol Falls Most Since 2008 as U.S. Plans Face Oil Pressure http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-11-28/sasol-falls-most-since-2008-as-u-s-plans-face-oil-led-pressure.html


Luckily, even when everything goes wrong, we still have got Dr. Strangelove’s Survival plan https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iesXUFOlWC0

Animals could be SLAUGHTERED!!!! And there will be much time and little to do … ;)


: Cheap Oil A Boon For The Economy? Think Again
: Letsbereal November 30, 2014, 05:27:40 PM
Cheap Oil A Boon For The Economy? Think Again
30 November 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-30/cheap-oil-boon-economy-think-again

Fossil industry is the subprime danger of this cycle
9 July 2014
, by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (The Telegraph)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/10957292/Fossil-industry-is-the-subprime-danger-of-this-cycle.html

Excerpt:

The cumulative blitz on energy exploration and production over the past six years has been $5.4 trillion, yet little has come of it

The epicentre of irrational behaviour across global markets has moved to the fossil fuel complex of oil, gas and coal.

This is where investors have been throwing the most good money after bad. [..] oil and gas investment in the US has soared to $200 billion a year.

It has reached 20% of total US private fixed investment, the same share as home building.

This has never happened before in US history, even during the Second World War when oil production was a strategic imperative.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) says global investment in fossil fuel supply doubled in real terms to $900 billion from 2000 to 2008 as the boom gathered pace.

It has since stabilised at a very high plateau, near $950 billion last year.

The cumulative blitz on exploration and production over the past six years has been $5.4 trillion [..]

upstream costs in the oil industry have risen 300% since 2000 but output is up just 14% [..]

The damage has been masked so far as big oil companies draw down on their cheap legacy reserves.

companies are committing $1.1 trillion over the next decade to projects that require prices above $95 to break even.

The Canadian tar sands mostly break even at $80-$100.

Some of the Arctic and deepwater projects need $120. Several need $150.

Petrobras, Statoil, Total, BP, BG, Exxon, Shell, Chevron and Repsol are together gambling $340 billion in these hostile seas.

the biggest European oil groups (BP, Shell, Total, Statoil and Eni) spent $161 billion on operations and dividends last year, but generated $121 billion in cash flow.

They face a $40 billion deficit even though Brent crude prices were buoyant near $100 ..

the sheer scale of “stranded assets” and potential write-offs in the fossil industry raises eyebrows.

IHS Global Insight said the average return on oil and gas exploration in North America has fallen to 8.6%, lower than in 2001 when oil was trading at $27 a barrel[/b].

What happens if oil falls back towards $80 as Libya ends force majeure at its oil hubs and Iran rejoins the world economy?

A large chunk of US investment is going into shale gas ventures that are either underwater or barely breaking even, victims of their own success in creating a supply glut.

One chief executive acidly told the TPH Global Shale conference that the only time his shale company ever had cash-flow above zero was the day he sold it – to a gullible foreigner.

the low-hanging fruit has been picked and the costs are ratcheting up. Three Forks McKenzie in Montana has a break-even price of $91. [..]

Under a global climate deal consistent with a two degrees centigrade world, we estimate that the fossil fuel industry would stand to lose $28 trillion of gross revenues over the next two decades , compared with business as usual,” said Mr Lewis.

The oil industry alone would face stranded assets of $19 trillion, concentrated on deepwater fields, tar sands and shale.


Brent crude $70.15 and U.S. crude $66.15 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: LOW OIL, HOWCOME?
: Letsbereal November 30, 2014, 08:04:23 PM
LOW OIL, HOWCOME?

Although there have been a lot of conspiracy theories around low oil lately, and rightfully so in these mistrusted days and also an healthy grey cell’s exercise, I think the final matter is quiet simple as you break it all down.

This graph tells us that it’s not necessarily the OPEC output that is too much.

http://www.bloomberg.com/image/ia.tqzP1acJ0.jpg

I think OPEC was being truthful when it said that if there is to be an oil price cut this has to be equally distributed over all oil producing nations including the U.S.

It essentially is in OPECS favor to not bend and lose market share because nobody else is cutting production.

With more players on the oil market now, of which some rogue, market share becomes an important issue especially in longer term directed strategies.
: Re: Brent crude $70.15 and U.S. crude $66.15 A Barrel Now
: decemberfellow November 30, 2014, 08:32:36 PM
Don't have any link but just thinking that a couple months ago gas was like 3.40 in my area,  news of isis taking over some oil wells to fund whatever there "cause" and now oil prices are 2.98  and forecast to continue dropping.  Coincidence?   I don't know.
: Re: Brent crude $70.15 and U.S. crude $66.15 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal November 30, 2014, 09:15:41 PM
Don't have any link but just thinking that a couple months ago gas was like 3.40 in my area,  news of isis taking over some oil wells to fund whatever there "cause" and now oil prices are 2.98  and forecast to continue dropping.  Coincidence?   I don't know.

I don't think that 'isis taking over some oil fields' news has much to do with the oil price.

They're merely used as a cover story to explain why some swift price changes have been taking place.

Mainstream journalist have become very inventive in always finding an obvious simple cause but bogus reason for oil price movements.

Could also be a blown up pipe line in Nigeria, often used as bogus reason.

Still 'supply and demand' is part of the make up of the oil price as is 'speculation' and 'currency value'.

See Graph: http://www.bloomberg.com/image/ia.tqzP1acJ0.jpg

Since this crises started in late 2007, beginning 2008 world wide oil demand has declined while the cost of obtaining oil has dramatically increased.

And there also is rogue oil trading going own via opaque channels flooding the market with cheap oil.

And then you have the currency and oil speculation part by the banksters with cheap 'hot' money.
: Re: Brent crude $70.15 and U.S. crude $66.15 A Barrel Now
: jerryweaver November 30, 2014, 11:25:18 PM
Ron Paul said this what to watch for. Collapse of the Petro dollar.   Maybe LBR would be so kind as to teach the art of short sales on stocks.




http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/guess-happened-last-time-price-oil-crashed-like
Guess What Happened The Last Time The Price Of Oil Crashed Like This?…
 By Michael Snyder, on November 30th, 2014
     

Price Of Oil Causes A Junk Bond Crash - Public DomainThere has only been one other time in history when the price of oil has crashed by more than 40 dollars in less than 6 months.  The last time this happened was during the second half of 2008, and the beginning of that oil price crash preceded the great financial collapse that happened later that year by several months.  Well, now it is happening again, but this time the stakes are even higher.  When the price of oil falls dramatically, that is a sign that economic activity is slowing down.  It can also have a tremendously destabilizing affect on financial markets.  As you will read about below, energy companies now account for approximately 20 percent of the junk bond market.  And a junk bond implosion is usually a signal that a major stock market crash is on the way.  So if you are looking for a “canary in the coal mine”, keep your eye on the performance of energy junk bonds.  If they begin to collapse, that is a sign that all hell is about to break loose on Wall Street.

It would be difficult to overstate the importance of the shale oil boom to the U.S. economy.  Thanks to this boom, the United States has become the largest oil producer on the entire planet.

Yes, the U.S. now actually produces more oil than either Saudi Arabia or Russia.  This “revolution” has resulted in the creation of  millions of jobs since the last recession, and it has been one of the key factors that has kept the percentage of Americans that are employed fairly stable.

Unfortunately, the shale oil boom is coming to an abrupt end.  As a recent Vox article discussed, OPEC has essentially declared a price war on U.S. shale oil producers…

For all intents and purposes, OPEC is now engaged in a “price war” with the United States. What that means is that it’s very cheap to pump oil out of places like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. But it’s more expensive to extract oil from shale formations in places like Texas and North Dakota. So as the price of oil keeps falling, some US producers may become unprofitable and go out of business. The result? Oil prices will stabilize and OPEC maintains its market share.

If the price of oil stays at this level or continues falling, we will see a significant number of U.S. shale oil companies go out of business and large numbers of jobs will be lost.  The Saudis know how to play hardball, and they are absolutely ruthless.  In fact, we have seen this kind of scenario happen before…

Robert McNally, a White House adviser to former President George W. Bush and president of the Rapidan Group energy consultancy, told Reuters that Saudi Arabia “will accept a price decline necessary to sweat whatever supply cuts are needed to balance the market out of the US shale oil sector.” Even legendary oil man T. Boone Pickens believes Saudi Arabia is in a stand-off with US drillers and frackers to “see how the shale boys are going to stand up to a cheaper price.” This has happened once before. By the mid-1980’s, as oil output from Alaska’s North Slope and the North Sea came on line (combined production of around 5-6 million barrels a day), OPEC set off a price war to compete for market share. As a result, the price of oil sank from around $40 to just under $10 a barrel by 1986.

But the energy sector has been one of the only bright spots for the U.S. economy in recent years.  If this sector starts collapsing, it is going to have a dramatic negative impact on our economic outlook.  For example, just consider the following numbers from a recent Business Insider article…

Specifically, if prices get too low, then energy companies won’t be able to cover the cost of production in the US. This spending by energy companies, also known as capital expenditures, is responsible for a lot of jobs.

“The Energy sector accounts for roughly one-third of S&P 500 capex and nearly 25% of combined capex and R&D spending,” Goldman Sachs’ Amanda Sneider writes.

Even more troubling is what this could mean for the financial markets.

As I mentioned above, energy companies now account for close to 20 percent of the entire junk bond market.  As those companies start to fail and those bonds start to go bad, that is going to hit our major banks really hard…

Everyone could suffer if the collapse triggers a wave of defaults through the high-yield debt market, and in turn, hits stocks. The first to fall: the banks that were last hit by the housing crisis.

Why could that happen?

Well, energy companies make up anywhere from 15 to 20 percent of all U.S. junk debt, according to various sources.

It would be hard to overstate the seriousness of what the markets could potentially be facing.

One analyst summed it up to CNBC this way…

“This is the one thing I’ve seen over and over again,” said Larry McDonald, head of U.S strategy at Newedge USA’s macro group. “When high yield underperforms equity, a major credit event occurs. It’s the canary in the coal mine.“

The last time junk bonds collapsed, a major stock market crash followed fairly rapidly.

And those that were hardest hit were the big Wall Street banks…

During the last high-yield collapse, which centered around debt tied to the housing sector, Citigroup lost 63 percent of its value in the following 60 days, Kensho shows. Bank of America was cut in half.

I understand that some of this information is too technical for a lot of people, but the bottom line is this…

Watch junk bonds.  When they start crashing it is a sign that a major stock market collapse is right at the door.

At this point, even the mainstream media is warning about this.  Just consider the following excerpt from a recent CNN article…

That swing away from junk bonds often happens shortly before stock market downturns.

“High yield does provide useful sell signals to equity investors,” Barclays analysts concluded in a recent report.

Barclays combed through the past dozen years of data. The warning signal they found is a 30% or greater increase in the spread between Treasuries and junk bonds before a dip.

If you have been waiting for the next major financial collapse, what you have just read in this article indicates that it is now closer than it has ever been.

Over the coming weeks, keep your eye on the price of oil, keep your eye on the junk bond market and keep your eye on the big banks.

Trouble is brewing, and nobody is quite sure exactly what comes next
: Re: Brent crude $70.15 and U.S. crude $66.15 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal December 01, 2014, 03:25:35 PM
Ron Paul said this what to watch for. Collapse of the Petro dollar.   Maybe LBR would be so kind as to teach the art of short sales on stocks.

I wish I was very arty with stocks but unfortunately I am not. I can only observe and tell you what I see.

Short selling the stock is gamblin' that the (oil) price will go DOWN some more and if it does you win, if the (oil) price goes UP you lose.

Jim Cramer Explains How The Stock Market Is Manipulated https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GOS8QgAQO-k

Classic, Buy the Rumor, Sell the News.  What does “buy the rumor, sell the news” mean?

The saying “buy the rumor, sell the news” comes from the phenomenon of stocks trading up into “big” announcements, and then (often) selling off shortly thereafter.

Also called Pump and Dump schemes.

: Saudi Arabia Declares Oil War on US Fracking, hits Railroads, Tank-Car Makers
: Letsbereal December 02, 2014, 09:48:36 AM
Saudi Arabia Declares Oil War on US Fracking, hits Railroads, Tank-Car Makers, Canada, Russia; Sinks Venezuela
1 December 2014
, by Wolf Richter (Wolf Street)
http://wolfstreet.com/2014/12/01/saudi-arabia-declares-oil-war-on-us-fracking-hits-railroads-tank-car-makers-canada-russia-sinks-venezuela/
: Guess What Happened The Last Time The Price Of Oil Crashed Like This?
: Letsbereal December 02, 2014, 09:50:30 AM
Guess What Happened The Last Time The Price Of Oil Crashed Like This?
30 November 2014
, by Michael Snyder (Global Research)
http://www.globalresearch.ca/guess-what-happened-the-last-time-the-price-of-oil-crashed-like-this/5417215


Brent crude $71.79 and U.S. crude $67.97 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: The Shale Bust Arrives: November Permits For New Shale Wells Tumble 15%
: Letsbereal December 02, 2014, 06:12:30 PM
The Shale Bust Arrives: November Permits For New Shale Wells Tumble 15%
1 December 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-01/shale-bust-arrives-november-permits-new-shale-wells-tumble-15


Brent crude $70.95 and U.S. crude $66.88 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: New US Oil Well Permits Collapse 40% In November
: Letsbereal December 03, 2014, 02:58:59 PM
New US Oil Well Permits Collapse 40% In November, Fed Still "Not Worried"?
3 December 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-03/new-us-oil-well-permits-collapse-40-november-fed-still-not-worried

Crude Slides After Saudis Suggest Oil Stabilizes Around $60
3 December 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-03/crude-slides-after-saudis-suggest-oil-stabilizes-around-60


Brent crude $69.53 and U.S. crude $67.17 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: There Are 300,000 Iraqi Barrels Signaling Oil Glut Will Deepen
: Letsbereal December 04, 2014, 06:51:52 AM
There Are 300,000 Iraqi Barrels Signaling Oil Glut Will Deepen
3 December 2014
, by Khalid Al-Ansary, Grant Smith and Jake Rudnitsky (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-12-03/there-are-300-000-iraqi-barrels-signaling-oil-glut-will-deepen.html

Sub-$50 Oil Surfaces in North Dakota Amid Regional Discounts
3 December 2014
, by Dan Murtaugh (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-12-03/sub-50-oil-surfaces-in-north-dakota-as-regional-discounts-swell.html

Saudi Arabia Seen Widening Asia Oil Discount on Shale Surge
3 December 2014
, by Yuji Okada and Heesu Lee (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-12-03/saudis-seen-widening-asia-oil-discounts-as-opec-takes-on-shale.html

Petronas Defers $32 Billion Canada LNG Project Decision
3 December 2014
, by Rebecca Penty and Christopher Donville (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-12-03/petronas-to-defer-final-investment-decision-on-canada-project.html

Canada’s Oil Dividends Threatened as $70 Crude Hurts Cash
3 December 2014
, by Jeremy van Loon and Rebecca Penty (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-12-03/canada-s-oil-dividends-threatened-as-70-crude-hurts-cash.html

Santos to Cut Spending, Delay Raising Funds After Oil Slumps
3 December 2014
, by James Paton (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-12-03/santos-to-cut-spending-delay-capital-raising-after-oil-tumbles.html


Brent crude $69.86 and U.S. crude $67.12 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Re: Brent crude $69.86 and U.S. crude $67.12 A Barrel Now
: jerryweaver December 04, 2014, 07:28:00 AM
There was skepticism about $70 oil. Now Russia is preparing for something far more difficult to imagine
http://russia-insider.com/en/business_opinion/2014/12/03/12-56-13am/moscow_blog_russia_prepares_40_oil


: Israel Pushing EU to Invest in Pipeline Through Cyprus
: Letsbereal December 04, 2014, 07:32:04 AM
Israel Pushing EU to Invest in Pipeline Through Cyprus
4 December 2014
, by Nicole Gaouette (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-12-04/israel-pushing-for-eu-to-invest-in-gas-pipeline-through-cyprus.html

Canada Gas Project Delay Highlights Oil Plunge’s Wider Risk
4 December 2014
, by James Paton (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-12-04/delay-at-canada-gas-project-highlights-wider-risk-in-oil-plunge.html

OPEC Shale Showdown Misses Target as U.S. Drillers Cap Costs
4 December 2014
, by Joe Carroll (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-12-04/opec-shale-showdown-misses-target-as-u-s-drillers-cap-costs.html

Explorers can drill new wells profitably even if crude falls to $25 a barrel, according to a team of analysts led by Manuj Nikhanj at ITG Investment Research Inc.

So why have we been paying over $100 a barrel since this crises started in 2008 and oil demand cratered?

Gasoline Price War Lights Up in Oklahoma City as $2 Floor Drops
4 December 2014
, by Margaret Newkirk and Lynn Doan (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-12-04/gasoline-price-war-lights-up-in-oklahoma-city-as-2-floor-drops.html

Saudi Arabia Said to Have No Price Target for Crude Oil for Now
4 December 2014
, by Wael Mahdi  (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-12-04/saudi-arabia-said-to-have-no-price-target-for-crude-oil-for-now.html


Brent crude $70.07 and U.S. crude $67.33 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Brent crude $69.50 and U.S. crude $66.70 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal December 04, 2014, 04:28:16 PM
THE OIL SLAUGHTER http://forum.prisonplanet.com/index.php?topic=229887.msg1493443#msg1493443

Santos to Cut Spending, Delay Raising Funds After Oil Slumps http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-12-03/santos-to-cut-spending-delay-capital-raising-after-oil-tumbles.html

Petronas Defers $32 Billion Canada LNG Project Decision http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-12-03/petronas-to-defer-final-investment-decision-on-canada-project.html

Canada’s Oil Dividends Threatened as $70 Crude Hurts Cash http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-12-03/canada-s-oil-dividends-threatened-as-70-crude-hurts-cash.html

Canada Gas Project Delay Highlights Oil Plunge’s Wider Risk http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-12-04/delay-at-canada-gas-project-highlights-wider-risk-in-oil-plunge.html

Here Is Oil's Next Leg Down http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-04/here-oils-next-leg-down

Could Falling Oil Prices Spark A Financial Crisis? http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-04/could-falling-oil-prices-spark-financial-crisis

Shale Liquidations Begin? Sub-$50 Oil Appears In North Dakota http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-04/shale-liquidations-begin-sub-50-oil-appears-north-dakota

Israel Pushing EU to Invest in Pipeline Through Cyprus http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-12-04/israel-pushing-for-eu-to-invest-in-gas-pipeline-through-cyprus.html


Brent crude $69.50 and U.S. crude $66.70 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Re: Brent crude $69.50 and U.S. crude $66.70 A Barrel Now
: EvadingGrid December 04, 2014, 05:28:02 PM
(http://www.feelnumb.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/Led_Zeppelin-Led_Zeppelin-Frontal.jpg)
: Iraqi-Kurd Oil Accord
: Letsbereal December 05, 2014, 06:53:01 AM
Iraqi-Kurd Oil Accord https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-VdWZO9DZs

Dec 4, 2014 TheRealNews


Brent crude $69.13 and U.S. crude $66.33 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Brent crude $69.07 and U.S. crude $65.84 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal December 06, 2014, 07:42:49 AM
Santos to Cut Spending, Delay Raising Funds After Oil Slumps http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-12-03/santos-to-cut-spending-delay-capital-raising-after-oil-tumbles.html

Casino-Like Hedges Seen Hurting Airlines as Crude Plunges http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-12-05/casino-like-fuel-hedges-seen-hurting-airlines-as-crude-plummets.html

U.S. Oil Rigs Rise as Shale Drillers Face OPEC Challenge http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-12-05/u-s-oil-rig-count-rises-even-as-crude-slips-below-70.html

Energy Bond Crash Contagion Suggests Oil Will Stay Lower For Longer http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-05/energy-bond-crash-contagion-suggests-oil-will-stay-lower-longer

Think this Arab might be correct:

Crude Slides After Saudis Suggest Oil Stabilizes Around $60 http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-03/crude-slides-after-saudis-suggest-oil-stabilizes-around-60


Brent crude $69.07 and U.S. crude $65.84 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: BP Set To Slash 100s Of Jobs Amid Oil's "Unequivocally Good" Slump
: Letsbereal December 07, 2014, 10:54:42 PM
BP Set To Slash 100s Of Jobs Amid Oil's "Unequivocally Good" Slump
7 December 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-07/bp-set-slash-100s-jobs-amid-oils-unequivocally-good-slump


Brent crude $68.23 and U.S. crude $65.09 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Oil Prices Collapse To New Cycle Lows, Canada Heavy Tumbles Under $50
: Letsbereal December 08, 2014, 10:46:33 AM
Oil Prices Collapse To New Cycle Lows, Canada Heavy Tumbles Under $50
8 December 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-08/oil-prices-collapse-new-cycle-lows-canada-heavy-tumbles-under-50


Brent crude $67.09 and U.S. crude $64.27 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Re: Brent crude $67.09 and U.S. crude $64.27 A Barrel Now
: Geolibertarian December 08, 2014, 10:58:39 AM
Why does the value of the dollar magically cease to be the primary determining factor of oil prices when those prices are going down instead of up?

Doesn't that constitute trying to mold reality so that it conforms to one's ideology (http://recoveringaustrians.wordpress.com/top-ten-austrian-economic-lies-and-mistakes/) instead of the other way around?
: Brent crude $66.40 and U.S. crude $63.50 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal December 08, 2014, 12:02:59 PM
Brent crude $66.40 and U.S. crude $63.50 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Oil Crash Comes Home To Roost: ConocoPhillips To Slash 2015 CapEx By 20%
: Letsbereal December 08, 2014, 01:03:19 PM
Oil Crash Comes Home To Roost: ConocoPhillips To Slash 2015 CapEx By 20%
8 December 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-08/oil-crash-comes-home-roost-conocophillips-slash-2015-capex-20

Energy Bond Risk Soars To Fresh Record High As Stocks Slump To 20-Month Lows
8 December 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-08/energy-bond-risk-soars-fresh-record-high-stocks-slump-20-month-lows


Brent crude $66.23 and U.S. crude $63.26 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Oil to Stay at About $65 for Six Months, Kuwait Petroleum Says
: Letsbereal December 08, 2014, 03:42:51 PM
Oil to Stay at About $65 for Six Months, Kuwait Petroleum Says
8 December 2014
, by Wael Mahdi (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-12-08/oil-to-stay-at-about-65-for-six-months-kuwait-petroleum-says.html


Brent crude $66.28 and U.S. crude $63.12 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Re: Brent crude $66.28 and U.S. crude $63.12 A Barrel Now
: jerryweaver December 08, 2014, 05:18:20 PM
Oil drilling in Texas’s Eagle Ford Shale would remain economic at an oil price of $53 to $65 a barrel, one brokerage says. EDDIE SEAL

http://www.wsj.com/articles/energy-boom-can-withstand-steeper-oil-price-drop-1414627471


This from WSJ. Notorious for blowing sunshine up the butt of the investment crowds.
: Brent crude $65.93 and U.S. crude $62.77 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal December 08, 2014, 09:47:50 PM
Brent crude $65.93 and U.S. crude $62.77 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: ConocoPhillips cuts 2015 drilling budget by 20%
: Letsbereal December 09, 2014, 11:39:30 AM
ConocoPhillips cuts 2015 drilling budget by 20%
9 December 2014
, by Daniel Gilbert (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/conocophillips-cuts-2015-drilling-budget-by-20-2014-12-09

ConocoPhillips said it would cut capital spending by 20% next year to $13.5 billion, a sign that major oil companies are treating the plunge in crude prices as more than a temporary dip.

U.S. oil prices hit a fresh five-year low Monday, falling below $64 a barrel in midday trading, and they are down nearly 40% since this year’s peak in June.

The steep drop in prices has come as energy companies prepare their annual budgets, and analysts expect much of the industry to scale back spending as cash flow shrinks.

Houston-based ConocoPhillips COP, +1.48%  is the first of the big, U.S.-based international oil producers to disclose its 2015 spending plans.

The company said it would cut back on exploring for new sources of oil and gas, as well as on drilling in some shale formations in North America, including the Niobrara in Colorado.

Ryan Lance, chief executive of ConocoPhillips, said the lower spending “is prudent given the current environment.”

The company also will spend less on some of its largest projects that are nearing completion, and estimates it will pump 3% more oil and gas in 2015 than in 2014.

Even if its oil and gas output grows more slowly than in the past, Conoco “is committed to live within its means,” said Roger Read, a Wells Fargo analyst.


Brent crude $66.67 and U.S. crude $63.61 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Brent crude $65.90 and U.S. crude $62.64 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal December 10, 2014, 09:21:13 AM
This Time Is The Same: Like The Housing Bubble, The Fed Is Ignoring The Shale Bubble In Plain Sight
9 December 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-09/time-same-housing-bubble-fed-ignoring-shale-bubble-plain-sight

Is This The Mystery Crude Oil Liquidator? The "God Of Crude Oil Trading" Taps Out
9 December 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-09/mystery-crude-oil-liquidator-god-crude-oil-trading-out

Crashing Crude's First Casualty: One-Time Commodities Giant Phibro Liquidating
10 December 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-10/crashing-crudes-first-casualty-one-time-commodities-giant-phibro-liquidating

Oil Resumes Drop as Iran Sees $40 If There’s OPEC Discord
10 December 2014
, by Grant Smith and Rupert Rowling (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-12-10/wti-crude-declines-as-iran-sees-further-slump-on-opec-division.html


Brent crude $65.90 and U.S. crude $62.64 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Brent crude $65.22 and U.S. crude $62.05 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal December 10, 2014, 10:34:03 AM
Brent crude $65.22 and U.S. crude $62.05 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Brent crude $65.15 and U.S. crude $61.98 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal December 10, 2014, 10:44:56 AM
Brent crude $65.15 and U.S. crude $61.98 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/

: Brent crude $64.51 and U.S. crude $61.28 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal December 10, 2014, 11:15:33 AM
Brent crude $64.51 and U.S. crude $61.28 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Brent crude $63.87 and U.S. crude $60.65 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal December 10, 2014, 12:17:05 PM
Kuwait Offers Biggest Oil Discount to Asia Since 2008
10 December 2014
, by Anthony DiPaola and Yee Kai Pin (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-12-10/kuwait-offers-biggest-oil-discount-to-asia-since-2008.html

Kazakh Debt Comeback After 14 Years Spoiled by Oil as Bonds Fall
10 December 2014
, by Elena Popina (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-12-10/kazakh-comeback-spoiled-by-russia-as-first-bond-since-2000-drops.html


Brent crude $63.87 and U.S. crude $60.65 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Santos Slashes Spending as Oil Plunges, Shares Hit 10-Year Low
: Letsbereal December 11, 2014, 10:23:01 AM
Iraq Says Asia Crude Discounts Offer No Basis for Oil Price War
11 December 2014
, by Anthony DiPaola and Grant Smith (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-12-11/iraq-says-asia-crude-discounts-offer-no-basis-for-oil-price-war.html

Santos Slashes Spending as Oil Plunges, Shares Hit 10-Year Low
11 December 2014
, by James Paton (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-12-11/santos-slashes-spending-as-oil-plunges-shares-hit-10-year-low.html

Canada Heavy Oil Nearing $40 Threatens Oil Sands Projects
11 December 2014
, by Robert Tuttle (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-12-11/canada-heavy-oil-nearing-40-threatens-new-oil-sands-projects.html


Brent crude $64.38 and U.S. crude $60.87 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Brent crude $63.68 and U.S. crude $59.26 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal December 11, 2014, 06:47:01 PM
Brent crude $63.68 and U.S. crude $59.26 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Stacy - OIL
: Letsbereal December 11, 2014, 07:59:50 PM
Stacy Herbert says: http://www.maxkeiser.com/2014/12/kr691-keiser-report-real-reasons-behind-uk-porn-law/comment-page-1/#comment-813313
December 12, 2014 at 12:59 am

@Youri – https://twitter.com/TriVestWealth/status/543161822409289728

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B4myzJcCcAA-kbc.jpg:large)

Youri Carma says:   
December 12, 2014 at 1:20 am   

@Stacy Herbert

Who is this Martin Pelletier?

So, according to his ‘history always repeats itself in the same way’ theory namely 162 days vs 169 days it’s already over due. I firmly disagree.

First off, history doesn’t repeat but it rhymes.

Secondly I think since there are also some smart people saying that the bottom could be around $40 a barrel, we still have way to go.

Oil producing entities have just begun with price cut’s so we are not over due, we are just beginning.

If soon is between 6 months an a year I might agree.

Frankly I wouldn’t trust Martin Pelletier theory. Trust me or Andies ;)

Oil Resumes Drop as Iran Sees $40 If There’s OPEC Discord http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-12-10/wti-crude-declines-as-iran-sees-further-slump-on-opec-division.html

Remember that time you had that oil expert on and he said that oil would tank and I said it wouldn’t?

I was right and he was wrong although his logic was very sound.

But since there seemingly is an other logic in oil prices you have to think in a different way.

If shale oil fore-financing is about 6 to 12 months this could be the trigger for higher oil when that ends.

Meanwhile a real battle for market share is taking place as we speak now which makes $40 a barrel perfectly possible.

Oil to Stay at About $65 for Six Months, Kuwait Petroleum Says http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-12-08/oil-to-stay-at-about-65-for-six-months-kuwait-petroleum-says.html

The real fun may begin when the U.S. just pays a huge oil shale ‘bail-out’ by keep pumping in cheap money just to keep unprofitable oil flows flowing, blowing a new Ponzi bubble.

Then oil could stay low longer then you might have expected at first sight. Even a year might be possible. Not naming any names here just looking straight at Martin Pelletier ;)


Brent crude $63.68 and U.S. crude $58.97 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Why The US Won't Bail Out Its Oil Industry
: Letsbereal December 11, 2014, 08:28:58 PM
"Massive Correction" In Energy Stocks Coming; Why The US Won't Bail Out Its Oil Industry
11 December 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-11/massive-correction-energy-stocks-coming-why-us-wont-bail-out-its-oil-industry


U.S. shale oil is being 'bailed-out' all the time with cheap zero interest rate loans. So what are we exactly talking about here?
: Oil prices dip below $59 after IEA cuts demand outlook
: Letsbereal December 12, 2014, 10:50:10 AM
Oil prices dip below $59 after IEA cuts demand outlook
12 December 2014
, by Sara Sjolin & Eric Yep (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-slip-with-crude-pushing-further-below-60-2014-12-12

World Oil Demand Outlook Cut Again; Sub-$60 Price Seen Holding
12 December 201
4, by Grant Smith and Mark Shenk (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-12-12/iea-cuts-global-oil-demand-forecast-for-4th-time-in-five-months.html

Any hope that global demand would provide a floor for oil’s freefall was dashed as the leading energy forecaster cut its outlook for the fourth time in five months and crude extended its tumble.

Oil Seen Dropping to $55 Next Week as Price Rout Deepens
12 December 2014
, by Moming Zhou and Lynn Doan (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-12-12/oil-seen-dropping-to-55-next-week-as-price-rout-deepens.html

Excerpt:

Benchmark U.S. oil prices are poised to test $55 a barrel after a six-month rout pushed crude to the lowest in five years.

West Texas Intermediate crude ended below $58 today for the first time since May 2009 after the International Energy Agency cut its global demand forecast for the fourth time in five months.

Prices are down 46% from this year’s highest close of $107.26 on June 20.

“By taking out $58, oil is moving towards the next target $55,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at the Price Futures Group in Chicago.

“It’s such an emotional selloff, and the even numbers are going to be the magic numbers.”

WTI for January delivery dropped $2.14, or 3.6 percent, to $57.81 a barrel today on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Brent slid $1.83 to $61.85 on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange, the lowest since July 2009.

Both benchmarks have collapsed about 20% since Nov. 26, the day before the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed to leave its production limit unchanged at 30 million barrels a day. U.S. output, already at a three-decade high, will continue to rise in 2015, according to the IEA.

The Paris-based agency reduced its estimate for oil demand growth in 2015 by 230,000 barrels a day.

We could definitely see $55 next week,” said Tariq Zahir, a New York-based commodity fund manager at Tyche Capital Advisors. “We are probably going to see some violent trading.”


Brent crude $62.62 and U.S. crude $58.65 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Here are the reasons oil is plunging to $40
: Letsbereal December 12, 2014, 11:50:23 AM
Here are the reasons oil is plunging to $40 http://www.marketwatch.com/story/here-are-the-reasons-oil-is-plunging-toward-60-2014-12-10

- Shale oil
- Price war
- Weak demand
- Dissipating geopolitical fears
- Strong dollar



Brent crude $61.98 and U.S. crude $58.12 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: US Oil Rig Count Tumbles Most In 2 Years
: Letsbereal December 12, 2014, 12:28:27 PM
US Oil Rig Count Tumbles Most In 2 Years
12 December 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-12/us-rig-count-tumbles-most-21-months

Excerpt:

We warned just a week ago that the lag between initial price declines in oil and the closure of rigs was between 4 and 6 months and just as we warned of the deja-vu all over again, Banker Hughes reports that the Rig Count this week dropped the most since March 2013 (oil rigs dropped 29 to 1546 - biggest weekly drop in 2 years).

The biggest drop was seen in the Permian Basin (down 20 to 548). Of course, it's being ignored for now, just as it was in 2008...


U.S. Oil Rigs Drop Most in Two Years, Baker Hughes Says
12 December 2014
, by Lynn Doan (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-12-12/u-s-oil-rigs-drop-most-in-two-years-baker-hughes-says.html

Excerpt:

U.S. oil drillers idled the most rigs in almost two years as they face oil trading below $60 a barrel and escalating competition from suppliers abroad.

Rigs targeting oil dropped by 29 this week to 1,546, the lowest level since June and the biggest decline since December 2012, Houston-based field services company Baker Hughes Inc. (BHI) said on its website yesterday.

As OPEC resists calls to cut output, U.S. producers including ConocoPhillips (COP) and Oasis Petroleum Inc. (OAS) have curbed spending.

Chevron Corp. (CVX) put its annual capital spending plan on hold until next year.

Rigs targeting U.S. oil are sliding from a record 1,609 after a $50-a-barrel drop in global prices, threatening to slow the shale-drilling boom that has propelled domestic production to the highest level in three decades.

“It’s starting,” Robert Mackenzie, oilfield services analyst at Iberia Capital Partners LLC, said by telephone from New Orleans.

“We knew this day was going to come. It was only a matter of time before the rig count was going to respond. The holiday is upon us and oil prices are falling through the floor.”

ConocoPhillips said Dec. 8 that would cut spending next year by about 20%.

The Houston-based company is deferring investment in North American plays including the Permian Basin of Texas and New Mexico and the Niobrara formation in Colorado.

Oasis, an exploration and production company based in Houston, said Dec. 10 that it’s cutting 2015 spending 44%.


Mexico Shale Boom Outlook Dims as U.S. Drillers Struggle
12 December 2014
, by Zain Shauk and Adam Williams (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-12-12/mexico-shale-boom-outlook-dims-as-u-s-drillers-struggle.html

Excerpt:

Oil companies large and small are shifting their spending plans in response to lower prices.

ConocoPhillips said Dec. 10 it would cut its 2015 spending plan by 20%, while BP said it would knock as much as $2 billion off of its capital spending budget.

Chevron said this week that its 2015 capital spending plan is on hold. Apache Corp. said it would cut its North America budget for next year by 25%.

Halliburton, the largest provider of hydraulic fracturing services, or fracking, plans to dismiss 1,000 workers in its Eastern Hemisphere region to help weather the oil price blow.


Brent crude $61.64 and U.S. crude $57.49 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: "This $550 Billion Mania Ends Badly," Energy Companies Are "Shut Out Of Credit"
: Letsbereal December 12, 2014, 10:53:50 PM
"This $550 Billion Mania Ends Badly," Energy Companies Are "Shut Out Of The Credit Market"
12 December 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-12/550-billion-mania-ends-badly-energy-companies-are-shut-out-credit-market

Excerpt:

Borrowing costs for energy companies have skyrocketed in the past six months...

Energy companies are no longer able to access credit...

“It’s been super cheap” for energy companies to obtain financing over the past five years
, said Brian Gibbons, a senior analyst for oil and gas at CreditSights in New York.

Now, companies with ratings of B or below are “virtually shut out of the market” and will have to “rely on a combination of asset sales” and their credit lines, he said.

The Fed’s three rounds of bond buying were a gift to small companies in the capital-intensive energy industry that needed cheap borrowing costs to thrive, according to Chris Lafakis, a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania.

Quantitative easing “has been one of the keys to the fast, breakneck pace of the growth in U.S. oil production which requires abundant capital,” Lafakis said.

One of those to take advantage was Energy XXI, an oil and gas explorer, which has raised more than $2 billion in the bond market in the past four years.

The Houston-based company’s $750 million of 9.25% notes, issued in December 2010, have tumbled to 64 cents on the dollar from 106.3 cents in September, according to Trace, the bond-price reporting system of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. They yield 27.7%.

Energy XXI got its lenders in August to waive a potential violation of its credit agreement because its debt had risen relative to its earnings, according to a regulatory filing.

In September, lenders agreed to increase the amount of leverage allowed.

And the blowback is coming...


“There are distortions in multiple markets,” said Lawrence Goodman, president of the Center for Financial Stability, a monetary research group in New York.

“It is like a Whac-A-Mole game: You don’t know where it is going to pop up next.”

...

“Oil companies that have high funding costs in the Eagle Ford and the Bakken shale plays are the ones that are most exposed right now due to lower crude prices,” Gary C. Evans, chief executive officer of Magnum Hunter Resources (MHR) Corp., said in a phone interview.

...

For other energy borrowers at risk, the liquidity squeeze” will probably occur in March or April when banks re-calculate hoe much they may borrow under their credit lines based on the value of their oil reserves.

Deutsche Bank analysts predicted in a Dec. 8 report that about a third of companies rated B or CCC may be unable to meet their obligations should oil prices drop to $55 a barrel.

“If you keep oil prices low enough for long enough, there is a pretty good case that some of the weakest issuers in the high-yield space will run into cash-flow issues,” Oleg Melentyev, a New York-based credit strategist at Deutsche Bank, said in a telephone interview.


I think oil will find a bottom around $40 but won't stay there too long and creep back to $60 were it will stay for at least 6-8 months. After that oil can spring back up to $80-$90 is possible over a year.

Pure my somewhat informed guesstimation. We'll see ...
: Will Oil Kill The Zombies?
: Letsbereal December 12, 2014, 11:07:10 PM
Will Oil Kill The Zombies?
12 Decembver 2014
, by Raul Ilargi Meijer (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-12/will-oil-kill-zombies

Wood Mackenzie Estimate Of Breakevens For Key US Shale Plays

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/12/20141212_energy.jpg)
: Crude Oil Extends Drop Below $58 as IEA Cuts Forecast
: Letsbereal December 13, 2014, 03:37:22 AM
Crude Oil Extends Drop Below $58 as IEA Cuts Forecast
12 December 2014
, by Moming Zhou (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-12-12/crude-oil-extends-drop-below-60-as-iea-cuts-forecast.html

Benchmark U.S. oil prices extended losses below $58 a barrel as the International Energy Agency cut its global demand forecast for the fourth time in five months.
: U.A.E. Says OPEC Won’t Change Output Even If Price Drops to $40
: Letsbereal December 14, 2014, 06:08:17 AM
U.A.E. Says OPEC Won’t Change Output Even If Price Drops to $40
14 December 2014
, by Anthony DiPaola (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-12-14/u-a-e-says-opec-won-t-change-output-even-if-price-drops-to-40.html

OPEC will stand by its decision not to cut crude output even if oil prices fall as low as $40 a barrel and will wait at least three months before considering an emergency meeting, the United Arab Emirates’ energy minister said.

OPEC won’t immediately change its Nov. 27 decision to keep the group’s collective output target unchanged at 30 million barrels a day, Suhail Al-Mazrouei said.

Venezuela supports an OPEC meeting given the price slide, though the country hasn’t officially requested one, an official at Venezuela’s foreign ministry said Dec. 12. OPEC is due to meet again on June 5.

“We are not going to change our minds because the prices went to $60 or to $40,” Mazrouei told Bloomberg at a conference in Dubai.

“We’re not targeting a price; the market will stabilize itself.” Mazrouei said current conditions didn’t justify an extraordinary OPEC meeting.

“We need to wait for at least a quarter” to consider an urgent session, he said.

The U.A.E. hasn’t been informed of any plan for an emergency meeting, Al-Mazrouei said.

OPEC Secretary-General Abdalla El-Badri said, “we don’t know,” when asked at the same conference about the possibility of such a meeting.

Brent crude, a pricing benchmark for more than half of the world’s oil, slumped 2.9% to $61.85 a barrel in London on Dec. 12, for the lowest close since July 2009.

Brent has tumbled 20% since Nov. 26, the day before OPEC decided to maintain production.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 3.6% to $57.81 in New York, the least since May 2009.

The 12 members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries pumped 30.56 million barrels a day in November, exceeding their collective target for a sixth straight month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait this month deepened discounts on shipments to Asia, feeding speculation that they’re fighting for market share amid a global supply glut.
: The Shocking Data Proving Shale Oil Is Massively Over-hyped
: Letsbereal December 14, 2014, 04:30:29 PM
The Shocking Data Proving Shale Oil Is Massively Over-hyped https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dk1m7aFGwb0

Dec 13, 2014 ChrisMartenson
: Brent crude $61.69 and U.S. crude $57.02 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal December 15, 2014, 10:33:07 AM
Brent crude $62.05 and U.S. crude $57.32 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/

Brent crude $61.70 and U.S. crude $57.09 A Barrel Now

Brent crude $61.62 and U.S. crude $57.05 A Barrel Now

Brent crude $61.69 and U.S. crude $57.02 A Barrel Now
: Brent crude $61.25 and U.S. crude $56.38 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal December 15, 2014, 11:10:58 AM
Brent crude $61.70 and U.S. crude $56.90 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/

Brent crude $61.60 and U.S. crude $56.86 A Barrel Now

Brent crude $61.44 and U.S. crude $56.72 A Barrel Now

Brent crude $61.25 and U.S. crude $56.38 A Barrel Now
: Brent crude $60.45 and U.S. crude $55.25 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal December 15, 2014, 12:32:01 PM
Brent crude $60.92 and U.S. crude $55.92 A Barrel Now  http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/

Brent crude $60.92 and U.S. crude $55.76 A Barrel Now

Brent crude $60.51 and U.S. crude $55.43 A Barrel Now

Brent crude $60.49 and U.S. crude $55.38 A Barrel Now

Brent crude $60.43 and U.S. crude $55.33 A Barrel Now

Brent crude $60.55 and U.S. crude $55.30 A Barrel Now

Brent crude $60.45 and U.S. crude $55.25 A Barrel Now
: Oil: The Battle For Market Share & The Saudi’s 1985 Playbook
: Letsbereal December 15, 2014, 05:59:24 PM
Aha!

“I agree with the view put forward by Glencore’s head of oil this week that the price will stay low for at least 6-9 months without OPEC intervention, as it will take that time for cuts in capex and investment to make any impact. “The groundwork is being laid for a strong rebound in 12-18 months.”

FROM: Oil: The Battle For Market Share & The Saudi’s 1985 Playbook http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-15/oil-battle-market-share-saudis-1985-playbook


I am surprised at my own prediction since it was more intuitively based than fact based:

oil will find a bottom around $40 but won’t stay there too long and creep back to $60 were it will stay for at least 6-8 months. After that oil can spring back up to $80-$90 is possible over a year.


http://forum.prisonplanet.com/index.php?topic=229887.msg1494697#msg1494697
: Mind The Global Dollar Short——Its A $9 Trillion Time Bomb
: Letsbereal December 15, 2014, 08:23:03 PM
Mind The Global Dollar Short——Its A $9 Trillion Time Bomb
15 December 2014
, by Phoenix Capital Research (David Stockman's Contra Corner)
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/mind-the-global-dollar-short-its-a-9-trillion-time-bomb/

The story here is not Oil; it’s about a massive bubble in risk assets fueled by borrowed Dollars blowing up.

The last time around it was a housing bubble. This time it’s an EVERYTHING bubble. And Oil is just the canary in the coalmine.


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-14/oils-crash-canary-coal-mine-9-trillion-crisis

: Brent crude $58.89 and U.S. crude $54.01 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal December 16, 2014, 10:07:00 AM
Brent crude $58.89 and U.S. crude $54.01 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Russell Napier: Oil May Drop To $25 On Chinese Demand Plunge, Supply Glut
: Letsbereal December 17, 2014, 10:06:13 AM
Russell Napier: Oil May Drop To $25 On Chinese Demand Plunge, Supply Glut, Ageing Boomers
17 December 2014
, by Russell Napier's ERIC (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-17/russell-napier-oil-may-drop-25-chinese-demand-plunge-supply-glut-ageing-boomers


Brent crude $59.56 and U.S. crude $55.14 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Re: Brent crude $59.56 and U.S. crude $55.14 A Barrel
: EvadingGrid December 17, 2014, 12:05:47 PM
Looks like its going to just keep falling . . . . .
Madness

Oil is being pumped at a loss !
: Brent crude $59.45 and U.S. crude $54.32 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal December 18, 2014, 02:56:56 PM
Saudi Arabia’s Oil Exports Drop Was Sign of Weaker Demand
18 December 2014
, by Wael Mahdi (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-12-18/saudi-arabia-s-oil-exports-drop-was-sign-of-weaker-demand.html

Good Times for Texas-North Dakota May Turn Bad on Oil-Price Drop
18 December 2014
, by Steve Matthews, Lauren Etter and Jeanna Smialek (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-12-18/good-times-for-texas-north-dakota-may-turn-bad-on-falling.html

Oil Investors Keep Betting Wrong on When Market Will Hit Bottom
18 December 2014
, by Dan Murtaugh and Moming Zhou (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-12-18/oil-investors-keep-betting-wrong-on-when-market-will-hit-bottom.html

OPEC’s Loss of Control Creates Contagion Fears, Mitsui Says
18 December 2014
, by Yuriy Humber and Ichiro Suzuki (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-12-18/japan-s-top-crude-trader-fears-contagion-from-oil-ruble-slumps.html

"It's A Huge Crisis" - The UK Oil Industry Is "Close To Collapse"
18 December 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-18/its-huge-crisis-uk-oil-industry-close-collapse-people-are-being-laid

Exxon Mobil Shows Why U.S. Oil Output Rises as Prices Plunge
18 December 2014
, by Joe Carroll (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-12-18/exxon-mobil-shows-why-u-s-oil-output-rises-as-prices-plummet.html


Brent crude $59.52 and U.S. crude $54.48 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/

Brent crude $59.45 and U.S. crude $54.36 A Barrel Now

Brent crude $59.45 and U.S. crude $54.32 A Barrel Now

Brent crude $59.33 and U.S. crude $54.31 A Barrel Now
: Oil Crash Exposes Shale Drillers in Risky Three-Way Bets
: Letsbereal December 19, 2014, 12:02:33 AM
U.S. Oil Rigs Drop With Crude Prices, Baker Hughes Says
19 December 2014
, by Lynn Doan and Jessica Summers (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-12-12/u-s-oil-rigs-drop-most-in-two-years-baker-hughes-says.html

Drillers Facing Lowest Oil Prices Since 2009 Idle Rigs
19 December 2014
, by Lynn Doan and Jessica Summers (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-12-19/u-s-oil-rigs-decline-by-10-as-crude-trades-under-60.html

Oaktree’s Marks Says Oil Decline May Ignite Debt Crisis
19 December 2014
, by Devin Banerjee (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-12-19/oaktree-s-marks-says-oil-decline-may-ignite-debt-crisis.html

Oil Crash Exposes Shale Drillers in Risky Three-Way Bets
19 December 2014
, by Asjylyn Loder (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-12-19/oil-crash-exposes-shale-drillers-in-risky-three-way-bets.html

The drilling had been driven by high oil prices and low-cost financing.

Companies spent $1.30 for every dollar earned selling oil and gas in the third quarter, according to data compiled by Bloomberg on 56 of the U.S.-listed companies in the E&P index.


Nabors Cuts Best-Paid U.S. Oil CEO’s Salary Amid Rout
19 December 2014
, by David Wethe (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-12-19/nabors-cuts-best-paid-u-s-oil-ceo-s-salary-amid-rout.html

Crude Below $60 Tests Petrobras’ Deepwater Discoveries
19 December 2014
, by Juan Pablo Spinetto (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-12-19/crude-below-60-tests-petrobras-deepwater-discoveries.html

US Oil Rig Count Tumbles Most In Over 5 Years,"Demand From Oilfield Customers Dropping Rapidly"
19 December 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-19/us-oil-rig-count-tumbles-most-over-5-yearsdemand-oilfield-customers-dropping-rapidly

Calculating The Breakeven Price For The Median Bakken Shale Well
19 December 2014
, by CEO of the SOFA (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-19/guest-post-calculating-breakeven-price-median-bakken-shale-well

At $66 per barrel, half the wells are uneconomic. If oil prices settle out at this price it can be expected that the number of wells drilled should be reduced by about half.


Brent crude $59.38 and U.S. crude $54.32 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Wayne Madsen: Saudis Are 'Forced' To Pump Oil
: Letsbereal December 21, 2014, 07:10:20 AM
How the CIA Launched the «Financial Pearl Harbor» Attacks on Russia and Venezuela
20 December 2014
, by Wayne Madsen (Strategic Culture Foundation)
http://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2014/12/20/how-cia-launched-the-financial-pearl-harbor-attacks-russia-venezuela.html

Excerpt:

By pumping high-pressure salt water into older wells, some at a depth of three to six thousand feet, an inordinate amount of pressure was built up.

Due to the dangerously high water pressure, the Saudis were forced continuously pump oil until the pressure became equalized.

That process is continuing. If the Saudis ceased pumping oil, they would permanently lose the wells to salt water contamination.

In the current "pump it or lose it" situation, the Saudis are forced to pump at a rate that may take up to five years before they can slow down production rates to pre-glut levels.



wOw! This Wayne Madsen piece puts the whole 'why oil down' case in a completely different light.

Brent crude $61.38 and U.S. crude $57.13 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Re: Brent crude $61.38 and U.S. crude $57.13 A Barrel Now
: EvadingGrid December 21, 2014, 07:54:51 AM
That Wayne Madsen is a really good source !
: Texas Is Headed For A Recession Due To Oil Crash, JPM Warns
: Letsbereal December 21, 2014, 11:03:02 PM
"Houston, You Have A Problem" - Texas Is Headed For A Recession Due To Oil Crash, JPM Warns
21 December 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-21/houston-you-have-problem-texas-headed-recession-due-oil-crash-jpm-warns


Brent crude $62.30 and U.S. crude $57.91 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Re: Brent crude $62.30 and U.S. crude $57.91 A Barrel Now
: larsonstdoc December 22, 2014, 06:11:59 AM
^^^^^^^^^
  Great article.  Yes, Texas and ND are going to be hurt the most.
: Re: Brent crude $62.30 and U.S. crude $57.91 A Barrel Now
: Geolibertarian December 22, 2014, 09:01:46 AM
Brent crude $62.30 and U.S. crude $57.91 A Barrel Now

Once again, if the "dollar devaluation" argument we always hear about whenever there's a surge in fuel prices has any validity, then the current plummeting of fuel prices must be attributed to a sudden reversal of dollar devaluation.

It won't, of course, and for the same basic reason record cold temperatures are always attributed to global "warming" instead of global "cooling": because when push comes to shove, reality must always be molded so that it conforms to ideology instead of the other way around.

It's all about having it both ways. About having one's ideological cake and eating it, too.

The far Left does it, and so does the far Right.
: Shale Was About Land Gambling With Cheap Debt, Not Technological Miracles
: Letsbereal December 22, 2014, 09:03:56 AM
Drilling Our Way Into Oblivion: Shale Was About Land Gambling With Cheap Debt, Not Technological Miracles
21 December 2014
, by Raul Ilargi Meijer (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-21/drilling-our-way-oblivion-shale-was-about-land-gambling-cheap-debt-not-technological

Excerpt:

The drilling had been driven by high oil prices and low-cost financing.

Companies spent $1.30 for every dollar earned selling oil and gas in the third quarter
, according to data compiled by Bloomberg on 56 of the U.S.-listed companies in the E&P index.

Financing costs are now rising as prices sink.

The average borrowing cost for energy companies in the U.S. high-yield debt market has almost doubled to 10.43% from an all-time low of 5.68% in June, Bank of America Merrill Lynch data show.

The shale patch can exist in its present form only if it has access to nigh limitless credit, and only if prices are in the $100 or up range.

Wells in the patch deplete faster than you can say POOF, and drilling new wells costs $10 million or more a piece. Without access to credit, that’s simply not going to happen.

Don’t forget, shale companies came into the ‘new lower price era’ with big debt issues already in place – borrowing well over $100 billion more annually than they earned, for at least 3 years running, and then in Q3 2014 they spent ‘$1.30 for every dollar earned selling oil and gas’ according to Bloomberg’s E&P index.

Q3 is July, August and September. On July 1, WTI traded at $106. On September 30, it still did $91. And in those days, at those prices, the industry bled $1.30 for every dollar earned.

What is that ratio today? $2 spent for every $1 earned? $2.50? More? That is not a different business model, that is not a business model at all.

Existing wells, those already drilled, will be allowed to be emptied, but then it’s over.

Who’s going to continue to pump millions upon millions into something that’s a guaranteed loss? Nobody. And not only that, but lenders will start calling in their loans, and issue margin calls.

The average borrowing cost for energy companies in the U.S. high-yield debt market has almost doubled to 10.43% from an all-time low of 5.68% in June”, says BoAML.

That’s about all we need to know. Shale was never a viable industry, it was all about gambling on land prices from the start.


Meanwhile as crude supply is not only set to rise, global demand continues to tumble, not only because of China slowing down and Japan and Europe in a recession, but because suddenly the deflationary mindset has spread like wildfire among the end-customers, who are happy to wait and buy on Thursday that oil barrell they would otherwise buy today… if it means getting it for10% cheaper.

The world is forecast to need less OPEC oil in 2015 because of a rising supply of U.S. shale oil and other competing sources, with no significant increase in world demand growth.

There has been much debate whether the crude price implosion has been due to excess supply or not enough demand.

Here, courtesy of the oil minister at the world’s largest crude supplier, is the answer:

NAIMI SAYS DEMAND FOR OIL SLOWED MORE THAN EXPECTED: SPA

NAIMI SAYS GLOBAL ECONOMY SLOWDOWN LARGELY BEHIND MKT PROBLEM


What happens next?

Well, we have a waiting game on our hands: when “asked about possible cooperation between members of OPEC, which include the world’s lowest-cost producers, and non-member countries, Naimi replied:

“The best thing for everybody is to let the most efficient producers produce”.

Which translated means Saudi Arabia will patiently wait for those marginal producers who are currently losing cash to turn the lights out.

It also means that until we find just who the first sovereign (or shale) casualty will be, crude prices are only going to go lower as the dumping strategy finally begins to bear results.

FROM: Saudi Arabia Refuses To Cut Oil Output Even If Non-OPEC Members Do http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-21/saudi-arabia-refuses-cut-oil-output-even-if-non-opec-members-do


Brent crude $61.16 and U.S. crude $56.78 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/

Brent crude $61.00 and U.S. crude $56.49 A Barrel Now

Brent crude $60.86 and U.S. crude $56.31 A Barrel Now

Brent crude $60.66 and U.S. crude $56.09 A Barrel Now

Brent crude $60.52 and U.S. crude $56.04 A Barrel Now
: Kazakhstan Prepares For $40 Oil, Gary Schilling Says "Oil Going To $20"
: Letsbereal December 22, 2014, 11:07:26 AM
Kazakhstan Prepares For $40 Oil, Gary Schilling Says "Oil Going To $20"
22 December 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-22/kazakhstan-prepares-40-oil-gary-schilling-says-oil-going-20


Oil’s 50% Drop From 2014 High Stokes Faith in Rally
22 December 2014
, by Moming Zhou (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-12-22/oil-s-50-drop-from-high-of-2014-stokes-faith-in-a-rally-energy.html

The International Energy Agency on Dec. 12 cut its forecast for global demand next year and raised its estimate for non-OPEC supply.

U.S. output, already at a three-decade high, will continue to rise, the Paris-based IEA said.

“But there is more oil continuing to enter into the market,”  John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC, a New York-based hedge fund that focuses on energy, said by phone Dec. 19.


Saudis to Non-OPEC Producers: Cut Your Own Output, We're Good
22 December 2014
, by Mahmoud Habboush, Wael Mahdi and Anthony DiPaola (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-12-21/non-opec-producers-called-on-to-cut-oil-output-amid-oversupply.html

OPEC doesn’t intend to cut its output “whatever the price is,” Al-Naimi said in an interview with the Middle East Economic Survey. “Whether it goes down to $20, $40, $50, $60, it is irrelevant.


Billionaire Shale Pioneer Cuts Spending 41% on Oil Crash
22 December 2014
, by Bradley Olson and Joe Carroll (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-12-22/continental-resources-cuts-spending-41-on-plunging-oil-price.html

Billionaire Shale Pioneer to Cut Spending by 41% https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FjjzUyMsTUo


Brent crude $60.59 and U.S. crude $55.91 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/

Brent crude $60.49 and U.S. crude $55.70 A Barrel Now

Brent crude $60.36 and U.S. crude $55.62 A Barrel Now

Brent crude $59.95 and U.S. crude $55.37 A Barrel Now

Brent crude $60.16 and U.S. crude $55.34 A Barrel Now

Brent crude $60.04 and U.S. crude $55.30 A Barrel Now

Brent crude $60.03 and U.S. crude $55.27 A Barrel Now

Brent crude $60.13 and U.S. crude $55.26 A Barrel Now
: OPEC Oil Market Defense Eludes Libya as Production Drops
: Letsbereal December 23, 2014, 08:51:23 AM
OPEC Oil Market Defense Eludes Libya as Production Drops
23 December 2014
, by Maher Chmaytelli, Saleh Sarrar and Wael Mahdi (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-12-22/libya-oil-output-drops-as-fighting-spreads-to-third-oil-port.html

Excerpt:

The country was producing 350,000 barrels a day as of Dec. 15, according to two people with direct knowledge of upstream operations.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates Libya’s consumption was 239,000 barrels of oil a day in 2013.

Output dropped 32% in November from a month earlier to 580,000 barrels, making the nation OPEC’s smallest producer after Ecuador, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

It’s output was about 1.6 million barrels before the 2011 rebellion that ended Muammar Qaddafi’s 42-year rule.

Libya has nine oil export terminals, of which two, Jurf and Bouri, are offshore and relatively immune to the fighting.

Zawiya, the second-largest, and Zueitina, the sixth-largest, are not exporting because they’re not receiving crude from fields upstream as a result of protests or military clashes.

The other ports, Brega and Hariga, are open, according to NOC’s Elharari.


Libyan Islamists Pushed Back From Attack on Oil Ports
23 December 2014
, by Maher Chmaytelli (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-12-23/libyan-islamists-pushed-back-from-attack-on-eastern-oil-ports.html


What’s Next for OPEC, Shale as Lower Oil Prices Extend Into 2015
23 December 2014
, by Isaac Arnsdorf  (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-12-23/what-s-next-for-world-oil-as-lower-prices-extend-into-15.html

Prices are lower than what all OPEC members except Kuwait and Qatar need to balance their budgets, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Libyan output almost quadrupled between April and October as fighting eased, only to drop 32% in November.

Iraq’s production is close to a 13-year high as the country struck a deal with its semi-autonomous Kurdish region to sell more oil as they wage war against Islamic State insurgents.

Iran said it aims to almost double output to 4.8 million barrels a day, an oil ministry official said Dec. 9.


Natural Gas Suggests $33 Oil
23 December 2014
, by Lance Roberts (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-23/natural-gas-suggests-33-oil


T. Boone Pickens Rages On CNBC: "I Am The Expert, Not You", Says Oil Down Due To "Weak Demand"
23 December 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-23/t-boone-pickens-rages-cnbc-i-am-expert-not-you-says-oil-down-due-weak-demand

Pickens https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uwGz4foNsx8


20 Stunning Facts About Energy Jobs In The US
23 December 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-23/20-stunning-facts-about-energy-jobs-us


2009 Is Back, And So Is The "Risk-Free" Contango Trade
23 December 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-23/2009-back-and-so-risk-free-contango-trade


Brent crude $60.82 and U.S. crude $55.97 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/

Brent crude $60.61 and U.S. crude $55.65 A Barrel Now

Brent crude $60.25 and U.S. crude $55.34 A Barrel Now
: Brent crude $60.24 and U.S. crude $55.84 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal December 24, 2014, 03:36:47 PM
Brent crude $60.24 and U.S. crude $55.84 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/

I think that it is not so much a case of the Arabs pumping too much anyways since it’s more a case of extra U.S. shale producing and moreover, cratering demand. See graph:

(http://www.bloomberg.com/image/ia.tqzP1acJ0.jpg)

Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-28/here-comes-60-oil-as-opec-tests-u-s-shale-chart-of-the-day.html


OPEC doesn’t intend to cut its output “whatever the price is,” Al-Naimi said in an interview with the Middle East Economic Survey.

Whether it goes down to $20, $40, $50, $60, it is irrelevant.


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-12-21/non-opec-producers-called-on-to-cut-oil-output-amid-oversupply.html


The Dangerous Economics of Shale Oil
24 December 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-24/dangerous-economics-shale-oil

In the best case scenario, long-term break-even in the Bakken shale oil is at around $100 a barrel.

Bottom line: the average US shale oil well is uneconomical even with hedging in place, since most hedging is around $90/bbl and the break-even is $99/bbl.



Companies spent $1.30 for every dollar earned selling oil and gas in the third quarter, according to data compiled by Bloomberg on 56 of the U.S.-listed companies in the E&P index.

The drilling had been driven by high oil prices and low-cost financing.


FROM: Oil Crash Exposes New Risks for U.S. Shale Drillers http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-12-19/oil-crash-exposes-shale-drillers-in-risky-three-way-bets.html


Make No Mistake, The Oil Slump Is Going To Hurt The US Too
24 December 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-24/make-no-mistake-oil-slump-going-hurt-us-too
: Re: Brent crude $60.24 and U.S. crude $55.85 A Barrel Now
: larsonstdoc December 24, 2014, 07:45:04 PM
Brent crude $60.24 and U.S. crude $55.84 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/

I think that it is not so much a case of the Arabs pumping too much anyways since it’s more a case of extra U.S. shale producing and moreover, cratering demand. See graph:

(http://www.bloomberg.com/image/ia.tqzP1acJ0.jpg)

Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-28/here-comes-60-oil-as-opec-tests-u-s-shale-chart-of-the-day.html

OPEC doesn’t intend to cut its output “whatever the price is,” Al-Naimi said in an interview with the Middle East Economic Survey.

Whether it goes down to $20, $40, $50, $60, it is irrelevant.


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-12-21/non-opec-producers-called-on-to-cut-oil-output-amid-oversupply.html

  Yes, most of the OPEC nations can pull their oil out the ground for about $10 a barrel delivered.
: Rocket hits Libya's storage tank at key oil port amid ongoing armed clashes
: Letsbereal December 26, 2014, 07:46:09 AM
Rocket hits Libya’s storage tank at key oil port amid ongoing armed clashes https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cWxq1yasY54
Dec 26, 2014 RT

Oil edges further above $60 as Libyan output slumps
26 December 2014
, by Alex Lawler - London (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/26/us-markets-oil-idUSKBN0K403120141226


Does somebody want the oil prices to go up? Expect more of this then.

Brent crude $60.42 and U.S. crude $56.22 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Saudi Arabia Ready For $20, $30, $40 Oil
: Letsbereal December 27, 2014, 10:53:26 AM
Saudi Arabia Ready For $20, $30, $40 Oil
26 December 2014
, by Colin Chilcoat (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-26/saudi-arabia-ready-20-30-40-oil

Nat Gas Tumbles Below $3 For The First Time Since 2012, Plunges
26 December 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-26/nat-gas-tumbles-below-3-first-time-2012-plunges-30-2014

Drilling Cutbacks Mean Service Companies Forced To Scrap Rigs
26 December 2014
, by Nick Cunningham (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-26/drilling-cutbacks-mean-service-companies-forced-scrap-rigs


Bottoms Up Line Oil: In the best case scenario, long-term break-even in the Bakken shale oil is at around $100 a barrel

The average US shale oil well is uneconomical even with hedging in place, since most hedging is around $90/bbl and the break-even is $99/bbl.

Companies spent $1.30 for every dollar earned selling oil and gas in the third quarter on 56 of the U.S.-listed companies in the E&P index.

This drilling has been driven by high oil prices and low-cost financing but now oil prices are very low and still in decline and the shale-Ponzi is collapsing in on itself.



Brent crude $59.45 and U.S. crude $54.73 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Oil Falls as Libya Port Attack Seen Not Resolving Glut
: Letsbereal December 29, 2014, 12:26:11 PM
Oil Falls as Libya Port Attack Seen Not Resolving Glut
29 December 2014
, by Mark Shenk (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-12-29/oil-climbs-as-libyan-output-threatened-by-fire-at-storage-tanks.html

Canadian Oil Surge to U.S. Gulf Puts Mexico on Defensive
29 December 2014
, by Dan Murtaugh and Robert Tuttle (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-12-29/canadian-oil-surge-to-u-s-gulf-puts-mexico-on-defensive.html


Brent crude $59.35 and U.S. crude $54.79 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Oil Slides to Five-Year Low, Oil Rigs in US Drop by 37, Lowest Level Since April
: Letsbereal December 29, 2014, 03:08:48 PM
Oil Slides to Five-Year Low as S&P 500, Treasuries Climb
29 December 2014
, by Joseph Ciolli and Mark Shenk (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-12-28/asian-index-futures-signal-gains-while-dollar-holds-climb.html

Oil Rigs in U.S. Drop by 37 to Lowest Level Since April
29 December 2014
, by Moming Zhou (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-12-29/oil-rigs-in-u-s-drop-by-37-to-lowest-level-since-april.html

WTI Hits $52 Handle As US Rig Count Tumbles To 8-Month Lows
29 December 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-29/wti-hits-52-handle-us-rig-count-tumbles-8-month-lows

Excerpt:

Just as T. Boone Pickens warned "watch the rig counts" last week, so the Baker Hughes rig countjust collapsed for the 3rd week in a row to 8-month lows.

This is the fastest 3-week drop since mid-2009. Crude prices were already weak but the news has flushed WTI to a $52 handle (not seen in the front-month contract since May 2009)

Rig count is tumbling...


Brent crude $57.98 and U.S. crude $53.63 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Brent crude $56.62 and U.S. crude $52.85 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal December 31, 2014, 11:27:14 AM
Brent crude $56.62 and U.S. crude $52.85 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: 2015 Starts As 2014 Ended: Crude Crumbles To Fresh Lows, WTI Tests $51 Handle
: Letsbereal January 03, 2015, 03:56:03 AM
2015 Starts As 2014 Ended: Crude Crumbles To Fresh Lows, WTI Tests $51 Handle http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-02/2015-starts-2014-ended-crude-crumbles-fresh-lows-wti-tests-51-handle

Low Prices Lead To Layoffs In The Oil Patch http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-02/low-prices-lead-layoffs-oil-patch

Oil & The Looming Canadian Housing Bubble Crash http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-02/guest-post-oil-looming-canadian-housing-bubble-crash

Another Shale-Bubble Bursts: Oil's Plunge Is Not 'Unequivocally Good" For This Group http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-02/another-shale-bubble-bursts-oils-plunge-not-unequivocally-good-group

When BTFD Fails: Hedge Funds Say "Enough Is Enough", Start Covering Bullish Crude Bets http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-01/when-btfd-fails-hedge-funds-say-enough-enough-start-covering-bullish-crude-bets

Occam's Oil http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-01/occams-oil


How Long Before Oil Prices Recover? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ej8UbjPihTI
Jan 2, 2015 Bloomberg Business

Solar Energy: How Low Oil Prices Change the Game https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sz_rX7YoJk4
Jan 2, 2015 Bloomberg Business


Brent crude $56.42 and U.S. crude $52.69 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Brent crude $55.58 and U.S. crude $51.80 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal January 05, 2015, 12:50:20 AM
Brent crude $55.58 and U.S. crude $51.80 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Revamped U.S. oil hedges may test OPEC's patience
: Letsbereal January 05, 2015, 03:21:20 AM
Revamped U.S. oil hedges may test OPEC's patience
5 January 2015
, by Lucas Iberico Lozada - New York (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/05/us-oil-hedging-analysis-idUSKBN0KE0BX20150105

Excerpt:

United Arab Emirates Energy Minister Suhail Bin Mohammed al-Mazroui:

 “There are companies which are hedged until the beginning of the year or until the end of the year, so we need to wait at least until the first quarter to see what is going to happen,”

Yet that hope is based largely on quarterly company reports from several months ago, when drillers last made their hedging portfolios public.

In the meantime, with the price rout showing no sign of reversing, at least some firms have put on new hedges that will help prevent their revenues from falling further – and allow them to drill far longer this year than earlier expected.

OPEC should not expect to see any impact on U.S. shale growth in the first half of the year and the impact in the second half is being attenuated significantly by producer hedging,” says Ed Morse, global head of commodities research at Citigroup, one of the biggest U.S. banks involved hedging.


Aha! So now we can assume that oil prices will stay low for at least half an year while still going lower now.

My prediction is that oil will stay low (under $60 a barrel) for at least an year and probably for an year and an half, so much longer than expected by most.



Brent crude $55.39 and U.S. crude $51.64 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/

Brent crude $53.71 and U.S. crude $50.46 A Barrel Now
: Re: Here are the reasons oil is plunging to $40
: Letsbereal January 05, 2015, 04:12:45 PM
Here are the reasons oil is plunging to $40 http://www.marketwatch.com/story/here-are-the-reasons-oil-is-plunging-toward-60-2014-12-10

1 - Shale oil
2 - Price war
3 - Weak demand
4 - Dissipating geopolitical fears
5 - Strong dollar

Top Five Factors Affecting Oil Prices In 2015 http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-05/top-five-factors-affecting-oil-prices-2015

1 - China’s Economy
2 - American shale
3 - Elasticity of Demand
4 - OPEC’s Next Move
5 - Geopolitical flashpoints

Brent crude $52.93 and U.S. crude $49.90 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Re: Here are the reasons oil is plunging to $40
: EvadingGrid January 05, 2015, 04:36:04 PM
Top Five Factors Affecting Oil Prices In 2015 http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-05/top-five-factors-affecting-oil-prices-2015

1 - China’s Economy
2 - American shale
3 - Elasticity of Demand
4 - OPEC’s Next Move
5 - Geopolitical flashpoints

Brent crude $52.93 and U.S. crude $49.90 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/

Where is over-supply ?
: Brent crude $50.84 and U.S. crude $47.76 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal January 06, 2015, 04:54:30 AM
Brent crude $52.23 and U.S. crude $49.30 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $51.52 and U.S. crude $48.72 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $51.52 and U.S. crude $48.61 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $51.58 and U.S. crude $48.37 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $51.20 and U.S. crude $48.15 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $50.84 and U.S. crude $47.76 A Barrel Now
: Some traders are betting on $20 oil
: Letsbereal January 06, 2015, 07:07:23 PM
Some traders are betting on $20 oil
5 January 2015
, by William Watts - New York (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/some-traders-are-betting-on-20-oil-2015-01-05


Brent crude $51.10 and U.S. crude $47.86 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $51.10 and U.S. crude $47.78 A Barrel Now
: Re: Some traders are betting on $20 oil
: larsonstdoc January 06, 2015, 07:40:31 PM
Some traders are betting on $20 oil
5 January 2015
, by William Watts - New York (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/some-traders-are-betting-on-20-oil-2015-01-05


Brent crude $51.10 and U.S. crude $47.86 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $51.10 and U.S. crude $47.78 A Barrel Now

  Interesting.  That would kill US/Canadian oil business.  If it already hasn't at $48.00

  There was a report here that said Bakken oil cost $99/barrel to produce.  Double ouch.
: Re: Some traders are betting on $20 oil
: Letsbereal January 06, 2015, 07:52:15 PM
  Interesting.  That would kill US/Canadian oil business.  If it already hasn't at $48.00

  There was a report here that said Bakken oil cost $99/barrel to produce.  Double ouch.

Yep, see:

2014 shale technology is economical at $100 oil, assuming “average well production” - an IP of 500 is average in the Bakken http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-24/dangerous-economics-shale-oil

Canada Heavy Oil Drops Below $35 As Rig Count Hits Record Low For January http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-06/canada-heavy-oil-drops-below-35-rig-count-hits-record-low-january

Falling oil prices will hurt Alberta as Ontario, B.C. economies grow http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/falling-oil-prices-will-hurt-alberta-as-ontario-b-c-economies-grow-1.2891427

Extending Low Oil Prices Will Kick the U.S. 'growth' Economy right in the Nuts http://forum.prisonplanet.com/index.php?topic=264446.msg1497421#msg1497421
: BofA Merrill sees risk of Brent sliding to $40 per barrel near term
: Letsbereal January 07, 2015, 10:52:48 AM
BofA Merrill sees risk of Brent sliding to $40 per barrel near term
7 January 2015
, (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/07/us-research-bofa-crude-idUSKBN0KG14Z20150107

Bank of America Merrill Lynch said Brent prices could reach $40 per barrel in the near term, leaving producers, including Saudi Arabia, with no alternative but to cut output.

"We see a growing risk of WTI and Brent falling to $35 and $40 per barrel near-term to force either non-OPEC producers or Saudi to cut," the bank said in a research note on Tuesday.

The bank said the term structure of oil continues to weaken and inventories are piling up, setting the stage for lower prices in the first quarter of this year.

BofA Merrill said to find a floor, the oil market needs to see non-OPEC supply curtailments, OPEC output cuts, or stronger global demand, but none of these seem to be materializing at the moment.

Brent crude oil fell below $50 a barrel for the first time since May 2009 on Wednesday and reached a low of $49.66, hammered by a growing supply glut and weak global demand.


Brent crude $51.43 and U.S. crude $48.99 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: LOW OIL PRICE FACTORS
: Letsbereal January 07, 2015, 12:33:42 PM
LOW OIL PRICE FACTORS

- Data showed Russian oil output at post-Soviet era highs and Iraqi oil exports near 35-year peaks

- U.S. driller ConocoPhillips announced it struck first oil at a Norwegian North Sea project

- New oil pipelines will pump record volumes of Canadian crude to the southern refineries (Many better equipped to process heavy crudes than lighter shale oil)

- U.S. Supply Seen Adding to Glut

- The U.S. exported a record amount of crude oil in November

- Revamped U.S. oil hedges may test OPEC's patience

- Saudi Arabia made deep cuts to its monthly oil prices for European buyers

- OPEC trimmed its prices for U.S. refiners ARM-OSP-N for a sixth straight month

- Slower-than-expected growth in U.S. manufacturing

- Hedge Funds Cut Oil Bets After Worst Drop Since 2008

- Some traders are betting on $20 oil

- Global oil glut expected to last for a year or longer



Brent crude $50.98 and U.S. crude $48.58 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: U.A.E. Energy Minister Says Oil Glut Could Run for Years
: Letsbereal January 07, 2015, 09:13:19 PM
U.A.E. Energy Minister Says Oil Glut Could Run for Years http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2015-01-07/u-a-e-energy-minister-says-oil-glut-could-run-for-years.html

Oil Exports From U.S. Jump to Record as Shale Output Booms http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2015-01-07/oil-exports-from-u-s-jump-34-to-record-as-shale-output-booms.html

Global Crude Falls Below $50 as U.S. Supply Seen Adding to Glut http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2015-01-07/oil-trades-near-48-as-u-s-stocks-seen-adding-to-global-glut.html

Oil Investors Pour Most Money Into Funds in 4 Years http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2015-01-07/oil-investors-pour-most-money-into-funds-in-4-years.html

How $50 Oil Changes Almost Everything http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2015-01-07/oil-at-40-means-boon-for-some-no-ice-cream-for-others.html

Here’s what it will take for oil prices to find a floor http://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-it-will-take-for-oil-prices-to-find-a-floor-2015-01-07

Analysts Say There's No Telling How Low Oil Prices Could Go http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2015-01-07/oil-analysts-balk-at-calling-floor-as-crude-tumbles-under-50.html


Brent crude $51.77 and U.S. crude $49.42 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Re: U.A.E. Energy Minister Says Oil Glut Could Run for Years
: larsonstdoc January 07, 2015, 09:22:32 PM
U.A.E. Energy Minister Says Oil Glut Could Run for Years http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2015-01-07/u-a-e-energy-minister-says-oil-glut-could-run-for-years.html

Oil Exports From U.S. Jump to Record as Shale Output Booms http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2015-01-07/oil-exports-from-u-s-jump-34-to-record-as-shale-output-booms.html

Global Crude Falls Below $50 as U.S. Supply Seen Adding to Glut http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2015-01-07/oil-trades-near-48-as-u-s-stocks-seen-adding-to-global-glut.html

Oil Investors Pour Most Money Into Funds in 4 Years http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2015-01-07/oil-investors-pour-most-money-into-funds-in-4-years.html

How $50 Oil Changes Almost Everything http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2015-01-07/oil-at-40-means-boon-for-some-no-ice-cream-for-others.html


Brent crude $51.77 and U.S. crude $49.42 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/

  So strange that the US exports so much oil.
: Brent crude $50.88 and U.S. crude $48.65 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal January 08, 2015, 04:27:59 AM
Brent crude $51.29 and U.S. crude $48.93 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $50.88 and U.S. crude $48.65 A Barrel Now
: Re: U.A.E. Energy Minister Says Oil Glut Could Run for Years
: Letsbereal January 08, 2015, 05:35:07 AM
  So strange that the US exports so much oil.

Exclusive: White House not under pressure to expand U.S. crude exports - adviser
7 January 2015
, by Jeff Mason - Washington (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/07/us-usa-crude-exports-idUSKBN0KG22020150107

The White House does not feel pressure to loosen restrictions on U.S. oil exports further and views debate over the issue as resolved for now, John Podesta, a top aide to President Barack Obama, told Reuters in an interview.
: Brent crude $50.83 and U.S. crude $48.63 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal January 08, 2015, 11:06:25 AM
Brent crude $50.83 and U.S. crude $48.63 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Oil glut spurs top traders to book supertankers for storage at sea
: Letsbereal January 09, 2015, 05:11:57 AM
Exclusive: Oil glut spurs top traders to book supertankers for storage at sea
8 January 2015
, by Jonathan Saul, Claire Milhench and David Sheppard - London (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/08/us-oil-tankers-storage-idUSKBN0KH1M520150108

Some of the world's largest oil traders have this week hired supertankers to store crude at sea, marking a milestone in the build-up of the global glut.


Oil Traders Seen Storing Millions of Barrels at Sea on Slump
9 January 2015
, by Alaric Nightingale and Naomi Christie (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2015-01-09/oil-traders-seen-storing-millions-of-barrels-at-sea-on-slump-1-.html

Oil companies are seeking supertankers to store 20 million barrels of crude as a collapse in the price of the commodity creates a trading opportunity last seen during the 2008-09 recession, a Greek shipping company said.


Oil Drillers’ Despair Gives Ship Owners Hope for Profit: Freight
9 January 2015
, by Naomi Christie (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2015-01-09/oil-drillers-despair-gives-ship-owners-hope-for-profit-freight.html

The oil glut that wiped $1 trillion off the value of energy producers and roiled currencies is giving tanker owners a reason to be cheerful: Demand for their ships to store that excess is about to surge.


Brent crude $50.55 and U.S. crude $48.71 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Don’t Bank on Oil Rebound Says Fund That Foresaw Collapse
: Letsbereal January 09, 2015, 05:51:51 AM
Oil Declines as Analysts Say Global Supply Glut to Linger
8 January 2015
, by Mark Shenk and Moming Zhou (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2015-01-08/oil-trades-near-5-1-2-year-low-as-u-s-export-surge-adds-to-glut.html

Oil slid to the lowest level in more than five years as analysts said a global supply glut will linger through the first half of 2015.


Don’t Bank on Oil Rebound Says Fund That Foresaw Collapse
9 January 2015
, by Chanyaporn Chanjaroen (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2015-01-09/don-t-bank-on-oil-rebound-says-fund-that-foresaw-collapse.html

A hedge fund that returned almost 60% last year by betting on oil’s collapse says the slump may have further to run.


Brent crude $50.79 and U.S. crude $48.84 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $50.63 and U.S. crude $48.66 A Barrel Now
: Brent crude $49.51 and U.S. crude $47.74 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal January 09, 2015, 01:52:23 PM
"Not" Stabilized - WTI Crude Nears $46, Brent Trades $48 Handle
9 January 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-09/not-stabilized-wti-crude-nears-46-handle-brent-trades-48-handle


Brent crude $49.51 and U.S. crude $47.74 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Behold! The 'Visible' Algo Hand Of Crude Oil "Spoofing"
: Letsbereal January 09, 2015, 03:06:21 PM
Behold! The 'Visible' Algo Hand Of Crude Oil "Spoofing"
9 January 2015
, by Charles Hugh-Smith (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-09/behold-visible-algo-hand-crude-oil-spoofing


wOw that oil is volatile …

Brent crude $50.18 and U.S. crude $48.42 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $49.88 and U.S. crude $48.18 A Barrel Now
: Brent crude $50.11 and U.S. crude $48.36 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal January 10, 2015, 07:35:15 AM
Exclusive: New U.S. well permits rise slightly in December after crude oil plunge
9 January 2015
, by Kristen Hays - Houston (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/09/us-oil-usa-permits-exclusive-idUSKBN0KI21M20150109


Only 1.6 percent of world's oil production at risk at $40 : WoodMackenzie
9 January 2015
, London (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/09/us-oil-supplies-idUSKBN0KI1M020150109

Only 1.6% of global oil supplies would be loss-making if crude prices fall to $40 a barrel, but even this level would not necessarily spark shutdowns, analysts at Wood Mackenzie said on Friday.


If this is true (which I doubt) this would mean that oil prices will stay low longer than expected and will go even lower.

Thus sustaining lower oil prices.


Brent crude $50.11 and U.S. crude $48.36 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Saudi Prince Warns “We Will Not See $100 Oil Again”
: Letsbereal January 12, 2015, 04:32:56 AM
Saudi Prince Warns “We Will Not See $100 Oil Again”, Calls Anti-Russia Conspiracy “Baloney”
11 January 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-11/saudi-prince-warns-we-will-not-see-100-oil-again-calls-anti-russia-conspiracy-balone


Brent crude $48.97 and U.S. crude $47.35 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $48.81 and U.S. crude $47.30 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $48.78 and U.S. crude $47.27 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $48.81 and U.S. crude $47.29 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $48.62 and U.S. crude $47.17 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $48.51 and U.S. crude $47.13 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $48.78 and U.S. crude $47.10 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $48.60 and U.S. crude $47.00 A Barrel Now
: Commodity Carnage Continues - Copper & Crude Crushed
: Letsbereal January 12, 2015, 08:36:37 AM
Commodity Carnage Continues - Copper & Crude Crushed
12 January 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-12/commodity-carnage-continues-copper-crude-crushed


Brent crude $48.54 and U.S. crude $46.97 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $48.44 and U.S. crude $46.73 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $47.95 and U.S. crude $46.34 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $47.57 and U.S. crude $46.26 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $47.47 and U.S. crude $46.22 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $47.37 and U.S. crude $46.07 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $47.40 and U.S. crude $46.02 A Barrel Now
: Brent crude $47.24 and U.S. crude $45.73 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal January 12, 2015, 03:17:51 PM
Brent crude $47.32 and U.S. crude $45.96 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $47.32 and U.S. crude $45.94 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $47.33 and U.S. crude $45.90 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $47.38 and U.S. crude $45.88 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $47.24 and U.S. crude $45.73 A Barrel Now
: Low Prices Spark Biggest Surge In Chinese Crude Imports Ever
: Letsbereal January 13, 2015, 06:43:41 AM
Low Prices Spark Biggest Surge In Chinese Crude Imports Ever
13 January 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-13/low-prices-spark-biggest-surge-chinese-crude-imports-ever

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/01/20150112_ChinaOil1_0.jpg)


Brent crude $45.28 and U.S. crude $44.26 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $45.73 and U.S. crude $44.69 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $45.63 and U.S. crude $44.73 A Barrel Now

Brent crude $46.04 and U.S. crude $45.36 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $46.05 and U.S. crude $45.77 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $45.64 and U.S. crude $45.22 A Barrel Now

Brent crude $46.59 and U.S. crude $46.12 A Barrel Now
: Brent crude $46.56 and U.S. crude $45.81 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal January 14, 2015, 08:23:00 AM
OPEC Who? US Crude Oil Production Hits Record High
14 January 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-14/opec-who-us-crude-oil-production-hits-record-high

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/01/20150114_USPROD_0.jpg)

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/01/20150114_USPROD1_0.jpg)


Crude Crumbles On Unexpectedly Large Inventory Build
14 January 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-14/crude-crumbles-unexpectedly-large-inventory-build


Brent crude $46.56 and U.S. crude $45.81 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/

Brent crude $46.25 and U.S. crude $46.17 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $46.21 and U.S. crude $46.01 A Barrel Now

Brent crude $48.30 and U.S. crude $48.16 A Barrel Now
: Wall Street Now Sees Oil Around $40
: Letsbereal January 14, 2015, 11:47:52 PM
Wall Street Now Sees Oil Around $40 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2015-01-14/oil-at-40-and-below-gaining-traction-on-wall-street.html

U.S. Oil Output Advances to Record Even as Prices Drop http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2015-01-14/u-s-oil-output-advances-to-record-even-as-prices-drop.html

Iraq to Double Exports of Kirkuk Crude Amid Oil-Market Surplus http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2015-01-14/iraq-to-double-exports-of-kirkuk-crude-amid-oil-market-surplus.html

Increased U.S. Output Bolsters Oil Glut Fears Sending Prices Back Down http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2015-01-15/oil-extends-gains-to-near-50-after-climbing-most-in-2-1-2-years.html


Brent crude $48.23 and U.S. crude $48.14 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Re: Brent crude $48.23 and U.S. crude $48.14 A Barrel Now
: larsonstdoc January 15, 2015, 09:52:09 AM
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-15/oil-advances-as-opec-forecasts-slower-growth-in-u-s-supply.html


Oil Rallies a Second Day in New York to Trade Near $50 a Barrel
: Brent crude $47.67 and U.S. crude $46.19 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal January 15, 2015, 09:56:07 AM
Crude Collapses Almost 10% From Post-SNB Highs, Erases Yesterday's OPEX Ramp
15 January 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-15/crude-collapses-almost-10-post-snb-highs-erases-yesterdays-opex-ramp

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/01/20150115_WTI_0.jpg) (http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/01/20150115_WTI.jpg)


Why $50 is the new ceiling for oil prices
14 January 2015
, by Anatole Kaletsky - London (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/50-is-the-new-ceiling-for-oil-prices-2015-01-14

Under this competitive logic, the marginal cost of U.S. shale oil would become a ceiling for global oil prices, whereas the costs of relatively remote and marginal conventional oilfields in OPEC and Russia would set a floor.

As it happens, estimates of shale-oil production costs are mostly around $50, while marginal conventional oilfields generally break even at around $20.

Thus, the trading range in the brave new world of competitive oil should be roughly $20 to $50.



Brent crude $49.06 and U.S. crude $49.40 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/

Brent crude $48.57 and U.S. crude $48.41 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $48.36 and U.S. crude $48.04 A Barrel Now

Brent crude $48.17 and U.S. crude $47.50 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $48.23 and U.S. crude $47.43 A Barrel Now

Brent crude $47.67 and U.S. crude $46.19 A Barrel Now
: Increased U.S. Output Bolsters Oil Glut Fears
: Letsbereal January 15, 2015, 09:08:26 PM
Increased U.S. Output Bolsters Oil Glut Fears http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2015-01-15/oil-extends-gains-to-near-50-after-climbing-most-in-2-1-2-years.html

OPEC sees 2015 supply surplus rising, even as oil slump slows shale boom http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/15/us-opec-oil-idUSKBN0KO14X20150115

Iraq to Double Exports of Kirkuk Crude Amid Oil Surplus http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2015-01-14/iraq-to-double-exports-of-kirkuk-crude-amid-oil-market-surplus.html

OPEC Sees Less Demand for Its Crude, Slower U.S. Supply http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2015-01-15/opec-sees-less-demand-for-its-crude-prices-to-slow-u-s-supply.html

Attempts Made to Disguise Iranian Oil Near U.A.E., Insurers Say http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2015-01-15/attempts-made-to-disguise-iranian-oil-near-u-a-e-insurers-say.html

Iran Lowers Oil Price for Budget to $40 After Collapse http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2015-01-15/iran-s-budget-assumes-40-oil-after-prices-decline-33-.html

Exclusive: Shell says has U.S. OK to export lightly processed oil http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/14/us-usa-crude-exports-idUSKBN0KM2F420150114


Brent crude $48.50 and U.S. crude $46.63 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Brent crude $50.17 and U.S. crude $48.69 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal January 16, 2015, 05:11:59 AM
Brent crude $49.31 and U.S. crude $47.28 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/

Brent crude $49.55 and U.S. crude $46.98 A Barrel Now

Brent crude $49.46 and U.S. crude $47.18 A Barrel Now

Brent crude $50.17 and U.S. crude $48.69 A Barrel Now
: Re: Brent crude $50.17 and U.S. crude $48.69 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal January 19, 2015, 03:49:32 PM
Brent crude $48.85 and U.S. crude $47.52 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/


Oil was pushed up last Friday to give it an uptick appearance but this didn't hold today.
: Iran OK With $25 Oil As Iraq Pumps Crude At Record Pace
: Letsbereal January 19, 2015, 04:58:00 PM
Iran OK With $25 Oil As Iraq Pumps Crude At Record Pace
19 January 2015
,
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-19/iran-ok-25-oil-iraq-pumps-crude-record-pace

"Oil May Drop To $25 On Chinese Demand Plunge, Supply Glut, Ageing Boomers."
17 December 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-17/russell-napier-oil-may-drop-25-chinese-demand-plunge-supply-glut-ageing-boomers


Brent crude $48.96 and U.S. crude $47.52 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $48.80 and U.S. crude $47.47 A Barrel Now
: Even if it hits $25-a-barrel, Iran’s not sweating falling oil
: Letsbereal January 20, 2015, 10:55:22 AM
Even if it hits $25-a-barrel, Iran’s not sweating falling oil
20 January 2015
, by Barbara Kollmeyer - Madrid (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/even-if-it-hits-25-a-barrel-irans-not-sweating-falling-oil-2015-01-20

Do I hear $25-a-barrel oil?

Iran’s oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh hinted at even lower prices for crude as he declared his well positioned for plunging crude oil prices.


“If the oil prices drop to $25 a barrel, there will yet again be no threat posed to Iran’s oil industry,” said Zanganeh at a conference in Tehran on Monday, Bloomberg reported.

That means the country should be sitting pretty as the Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries, sticks to its guns on production cuts.

But Zanganeh also predicted that OPEC and non-OPEC countries will eventually “cooperate to restore balance to the oil market.”

Wishful thinking perhaps in a situation where the market only reads: too much supply, not enough demand.

On Sunday, his Iraq counterpart, Adel Abdul-Mehdi, said his country pumped out a record four million barrels per day of oil in December

A barrel of U.S. crude on the March forward contract dropped over 3% on Monday, also deflated by news that China’s economy grew last year at the slowest pace in a decade.

Recently, billionaire Saudi businessman Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, said the market can kiss $100-a-barrel oil goodbye forever.

“I said a year ago [that] the price of oil above $100 is artificial,” Alwaleed said. “It’s not correct.”

Over at Project Syndicate last week, Anatole Kaletsky, a former Times of London columnist said $50 oil should really be the ceiling for a much lower price range, which could drop all the way down to $20 a barrel.

As it happens, estimates of shale-oil production costs are mostly around $50, while marginal conventional oilfields generally break even at around $20.

Thus, the trading range in the brave new world of competitive oil should be roughly $20 to $50,” said Kaletsky, chief economist and co-chairman of Gavekal Dragonomics.

His chart below lays out the history of inflation-adjusted oil prices since 1974, when OPEC first emerged:

(http://ei.marketwatch.com//Multimedia/2015/01/20/Photos/MG/MW-DD705_real_o_20150120091955_MG.jpg?uuid=7889feaa-a0af-11e4-b18e-a82137d2521b)

Also See:

Oil above $100? Never again, says Saudi Prince Alwaleed http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-above-100-never-again-says-saudi-prince-alwaleed-2015-01-12


Brent crude $48.32 and U.S. crude $46.46 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $48.22 and U.S. crude $46.39 A Barrel Now
: Re: Iran OK With $25 Oil As Iraq Pumps Crude At Record Pace
: larsonstdoc January 20, 2015, 05:06:30 PM
Iran OK With $25 Oil As Iraq Pumps Crude At Record Pace
19 January 2015
,
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-19/iran-ok-25-oil-iraq-pumps-crude-record-pace

"Oil May Drop To $25 On Chinese Demand Plunge, Supply Glut, Ageing Boomers."
17 December 2014
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-17/russell-napier-oil-may-drop-25-chinese-demand-plunge-supply-glut-ageing-boomers


Brent crude $48.96 and U.S. crude $47.52 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $48.80 and U.S. crude $47.47 A Barrel Now

  Yes, it's time to blame us ageing boomers.  We will be blamed for a lot of things in the coming years.

  Myself, I don't really care.   

  Will they ever blame the greedy bankers?
: Andurand Capital Sees Oil Sliding to $40 as Long as Six Months
: Letsbereal January 21, 2015, 12:05:28 AM
Oil Price to Reach $60 by Year-End, Canada Conference Board Says http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2015-01-20/oil-price-to-reach-60-by-year-end-canada-conference-board-says.html

Andurand Capital Sees Oil Sliding to $40 as Long as Six Months http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2015-01-21/andurand-capital-sees-oil-sliding-to-40-as-long-as-six-months.html

I don't agree, my first prediction (from December 12, 2014)  (http://forum.prisonplanet.com/index.php?topic=229887.msg1494697#msg1494697) was:

"oil will find a bottom around $40 but won’t stay there too long and creep back to $60 were it will stay for at least 6-8 months. After that oil can spring back up to $80-$90 is possible over a year."

But after studying the subject a bit further and seeing the mayhem that low oil prices caused already, I think that my prediction was too optimistic.

Altough I like to be an optimist the cold reality is that lower oil prices will sustain longer than many expect also because the demand simply is not there.



Shale Oil Growth in U.S. Hurts Canadians as Well as OPEC http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2015-01-21/shale-oil-growth-in-u-s-hurts-canadians-as-well-as-opec.html

Oil Falls as Record Iraqi Output Seen Compounding Surplus http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2015-01-19/oil-drops-below-48-a-barrel-as-u-s-resists-market-intervention.html

Oil Trades Below $47 as Rising U.S. Supplies Seen Expanding Glut http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2015-01-21/oil-trades-below-47-as-rising-u-s-supplies-seen-expanding-glut.html

Who's causing too much oil?


Brent crude $48.45 and U.S. crude $46.39 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Johnny Winter – (Going back to) Dallas
: Letsbereal January 21, 2015, 11:02:06 AM
Johnny Winter – (Going back to) Dallas https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AjcOSmmTTiE

In Midland, hunkering down for the oil bust http://www.dallasnews.com/business/energy/20150119-in-midland-hunkering-down-for-the-oil-bust.ece

In Texas, hunkering down for the oil bust http://www.mrt.com/business/oil/article_cbb73892-a035-11e4-9dd0-af8fe08323ce.html


Brent crude $49.26 and U.S. crude $46.39 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Oil Will Not Go to $20 or $25: OPEC’s El-Badri
: Letsbereal January 21, 2015, 09:48:28 PM
Oil Will Not Go to $20 or $25: OPEC’s El-Badri https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gYj1Du_5yFw

Jan 21, 2015 Bloomberg Business


Brent crude $48.90 and U.S. crude $47.47 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Crude Tumbles On Biggest Weekly Inventory Build Since 2001
: Letsbereal January 22, 2015, 02:10:32 PM
Crude Tumbles On Biggest Weekly Inventory Build Since 2001
22 January 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-22/un-stabilizing-wti-crude-tumbles-back-below-47

Biggest Oil Rig Ever: World’s Largest Oil Platform Begins Production In Russia!
http://investmentwatchblog.com/biggest-oil-rig-ever-worlds-largest-oil-platform-begins-production-in-russia/


Brent crude $48.60 and U.S. crude $46.30 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Re: Crude Tumbles On Biggest Weekly Inventory Build Since 2001
: larsonstdoc January 22, 2015, 11:54:49 PM
Crude Tumbles On Biggest Weekly Inventory Build Since 2001
22 January 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-22/un-stabilizing-wti-crude-tumbles-back-below-47

Biggest Oil Rig Ever: World’s Largest Oil Platform Begins Production In Russia!
http://investmentwatchblog.com/biggest-oil-rig-ever-worlds-largest-oil-platform-begins-production-in-russia/


Brent crude $48.60 and U.S. crude $46.30 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/

4.5 million tons of oil annually on the biggest oil rig ever...Amazing.
: Gunvor Sees No Return to $100 Oil Once Price Plunge Is Reversed
: Letsbereal January 23, 2015, 12:42:47 PM
Gunvor Sees No Return to $100 Oil Once Price Plunge Is Reversed http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2015-01-22/gunvor-sees-no-return-to-100-oil-once-price-plunge-is-reversed.html

OPEC’s El-Badri Says Oil Will Rebound Instead of Fall to $20 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2015-01-21/opec-s-el-badri-says-oil-won-t-fall-to-20-or-25-a-barrel.html


Brent crude $49.05 and U.S. crude $46.01 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Oils Shit’s Hitting the Fan!!! $45 Handle
: Letsbereal January 23, 2015, 01:42:37 PM
Pipeline Tycoon Kinder Expands Into Bakken With $3 Billion Deal
22 January 2015
, by David Wethe, Jim Polson and Joe Carroll (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2015-01-21/kinder-morgan-to-buy-hiland-partners-for-about-3-billion.html


Brent crude $48.86 and U.S. crude $45.76 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $48.83 and U.S. crude $45.69 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $48.70 and U.S. crude $45.53 A Barrel Now

Oils shit’s hitting the fan!!!

This surely will retire them Zombies, Click Click Boom!!! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cUfTPhWD9Ms

Stalin: One banker, One problem. No banker, No problem.
: Prince Alwaleed: We'll Never See Oil at $100-Plus Again
: Letsbereal January 24, 2015, 10:08:51 AM
Prince Alwaleed: We'll Never See Oil at $100-Plus Again https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M0DlRGGxMuc

Gail Tverberg: This Is The Beginning Of The End For Oil Production https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IOR3bdRJo98

Gunvor Sees No Return to $100 Oil Once Price Plunge Is Reversed http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2015-01-22/gunvor-sees-no-return-to-100-oil-once-price-plunge-is-reversed.html

Saudi Prince Warns “We Will Not See $100 Oil Again”, Calls Anti-Russia Conspiracy “Baloney” http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-11/saudi-prince-warns-we-will-not-see-100-oil-again-calls-anti-russia-conspiracy-balone

Don’t Bank on Oil Rebound Says Fund That Foresaw Collapse http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2015-01-09/don-t-bank-on-oil-rebound-says-fund-that-foresaw-collapse.html

U.A.E. Energy Minister Says Oil Glut Could Run for Years http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2015-01-07/u-a-e-energy-minister-says-oil-glut-could-run-for-years.html


OPEC sees 2015 supply surplus rising, even as oil slump slows shale boom http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/15/us-opec-oil-idUSKBN0KO14X20150115

Increased U.S. Output Bolsters Oil Glut Fears Sending Prices Back Down http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2015-01-15/oil-extends-gains-to-near-50-after-climbing-most-in-2-1-2-years.html

Iran Lowers Oil Price for Budget to $40 After Collapse http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2015-01-15/iran-s-budget-assumes-40-oil-after-prices-decline-33-.html

Iraq to Double Exports of Kirkuk Crude Amid Oil-Market Surplus http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2015-01-14/iraq-to-double-exports-of-kirkuk-crude-amid-oil-market-surplus.html

U.S. Oil Output Advances to Record Even as Prices Drop http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2015-01-14/u-s-oil-output-advances-to-record-even-as-prices-drop.html


Iran OK With $25 Oil As Iraq Pumps Crude At Record Pace http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-19/iran-ok-25-oil-iraq-pumps-crude-record-pace

"Oil May Drop To $25 On Chinese Demand Plunge, Supply Glut, Ageing Boomers." http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-17/russell-napier-oil-may-drop-25-chinese-demand-plunge-supply-glut-ageing-boomers

Oil Price to Reach $60 by Year-End, Canada Conference Board Says http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2015-01-20/oil-price-to-reach-60-by-year-end-canada-conference-board-says.html

Andurand Capital Sees Oil Sliding to $40 as Long as Six Months http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2015-01-21/andurand-capital-sees-oil-sliding-to-40-as-long-as-six-months.html

OPEC’s El-Badri Says Oil Will Rebound Instead of Fall to $20 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2015-01-21/opec-s-el-badri-says-oil-won-t-fall-to-20-or-25-a-barrel.html


My first prediction (from December 12, 2014) was:

“Oil will find a bottom around $40 but won’t stay there too long and creep back to $60 were it will stay for at least 6-8 months. After that oil can spring back up to $80-$90 is possible over a year.”

But after studying the subject a bit further and seeing the mayhem that low oil prices caused already, I think that my prediction was too optimistic.

Although I like to be an optimist the cold reality is that lower oil prices will sustain longer than many expect also because the demand simply is not there.



Brent crude $48.79 and U.S. crude $45.59 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: U.S. December Oil Glut Highest Since Depression, API Says
: Letsbereal January 24, 2015, 05:13:01 PM
U.S. December Oil Glut Highest Since Depression, API Says http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2015-01-23/u-s-december-oil-glut-highest-since-depression-api-says.html

WTI Crude’s Discount to Brent Widens as U.S. Glut Deepens http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2015-01-23/wti-crude-s-discount-to-brent-widens-as-u-s-glut-deepens.html


Brent crude $48.79 and U.S. crude $45.59 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Re: Brent crude $48.79 and U.S. crude $45.59 A Barrel Now
: EvadingGrid January 25, 2015, 06:32:29 AM
The rumour going around Davos, is that oil will climb back to around $100 a barrel in 12-18 months.
: OPEC’s El-Badri Says $200 Oil Possible With Lack of Spending
: Letsbereal January 26, 2015, 12:19:55 PM
The rumour going around Davos, is that oil will climb back to around $100 a barrel in 12-18 months.

I agree with the notion that oil will spring back after the low but how far depends on demand which remains a big question mark.

The same with the question how long oil will stay low. I think longer than many anticipate.

If demand stays tepid $200 a barrel seems a bit excessive maybe even $100 a barrel, we'll see ...

And we still have some war black swans which could push oil up temporarely.


OPEC’s El-Badri Says $200 Oil Possible With Lack of Spending http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2015-01-26/opec-s-el-badri-sees-200-oil-possible-with-lack-of-investment.html

Hedge Funds Bet Oil Will Fall Further http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2015-01-26/hedge-funds-bet-oil-has-further-to-fall-as-glut-grows-energy.html


Brent crude $48.59 and U.S. crude $45.57 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Why Oil Prices Will Be "Lower For Longer" In 3 Simple Charts
: Letsbereal January 26, 2015, 04:27:02 PM
Why Oil Prices Will Be "Lower For Longer" In 3 Simple Charts
26 January 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-26/why-oil-prices-will-be-lower-longer-3-simple-charts


Brent crude $48.17 and U.S. crude $45.12 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Goldman Sachs’s Cohn Says Oil Prices May Hit $30 in Extended Slump
: Letsbereal January 27, 2015, 01:14:51 PM
Goldman Sachs’s Cohn Says Oil Prices May Hit $30 in Extended Slump
26 January 2015
, by Elizabeth Dexheimer (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2015-01-26/goldman-sachs-s-cohn-sees-oil-falling-to-30-in-extended-slump.html

Oil prices will probably continue to decline and could reach as low as $30 a barrel, according to Gary Cohn, president of Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

“We’re probably in the lower, longer view,” Cohn, a former oil trader, said Monday in an interview with CNBC.

West Texas Intermediate for March delivery fell 44 cents to close at $45.15 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest settlement since March 11, 2009.

Crude oil has slumped almost 60% since June as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries resisted calls to cut output and the U.S. pumped at the fastest pace in more than three decades.

Drillers in the U.S. have begun to idle rigs as falling prices make wells aiming to tap shale reserves unprofitable.

Cohn, 54, said the commodity business is “very, very strong” because consumers and oil-producing nations are in different positions than they have been in the past few years.

“If you’re a consumer today and you can lock in these prices, you’re a lot more aggressive in the markets in hedging than you ever have been,” Cohn said.

“The flip side is if you’re an oil-exporting country today and you’re looking at these oil prices and you see a fairly steep forward curve and you see 10 or 15 dollars of price higher a year forward then you do in the spot market, you have to consider trying to lock into that forward price.”


Brent crude $49.17 and U.S. crude $46.15 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: He called $50 oil, now he says it’s going lower
: Letsbereal January 27, 2015, 08:33:25 PM
Oil to stay lower for longer; Chinese demand growth to slow - Goldman
27 January 2015
, by David Sheppard - London (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/27/us-oil-goldman-currie-idUSKBN0L024220150127

He called $50 oil, now he says it’s going lower
27 January 2015
, by Howard Gold (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/he-called-50-oil-now-he-says-its-going-lower-2015-01-27

Low prices to delay 'peak oil demand' past 2030, says BofA
26 January 2015
, (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/26/us-oil-demand-bofa-idUSKBN0KZ28X20150126

Fewer oil rigs does not mean less crude, EIA says
26 January 2015
, by Claudia Assis - San Francisco (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fewer-oil-rigs-does-not-equal-less-crude-eia-says-2015-01-26

Aviation's oil price dissident says fuel will stay low
23 January 2015
, by Tim Hepher - Dublin (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/23/us-aviation-fuel-pilarski-idUSKBN0KW24O20150123


Brent crude $48.94 and U.S. crude $45.41 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Crude Supplies Surge To Highest Since At Least 1982
: Letsbereal January 28, 2015, 11:14:50 AM
Crude Supplies Surge To Highest Since At Least 1982
28 January 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-28/wti-tumbles-back-towards-44-handle-after-api-build-goldman-downgrade


Brent crude $49.31 and U.S. crude $45.21 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Markets Tumble As FOMC 'Upgrades' Economy & Jobs In Hawkish Statement
: Letsbereal January 28, 2015, 04:44:27 PM
Markets Tumble As FOMC 'Upgrades' Economy & Jobs In Hawkish Statement http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-28/markets-disappointed-fomc-upgrades-economy-jobs-hawkish-statement

Oil Falls to Lowest Since April 2009 on Rising U.S. Crude Supply http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-28/oil-falls-on-estimates-u-s-inventories-rose-to-3-decade-high

Iraq Escalates Internal OPEC Scrap http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-28/iraq-oil-surge-to-fan-opec-rivalry-that-triggered-slump

Oil Will Recover Once Producers Quit Spending Money, Hamm Says http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-28/oil-will-recover-once-producers-quit-spending-money-hamm-says

Cenovus Sees Oil-Sands Costs Drop on Suppliers Competiion http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-28/cenovus-sees-oil-sands-costs-drop-on-suppliers-competiion

CPPIB’s Wiseman Carrying a Big Wallet to the Oil Patch http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-28/cppib-s-wiseman-carrying-a-big-wallet-to-the-oil-patch


We’ve got the $44 handle now!

Brent crude $48.44 and U.S. crude $44.35 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Crude Crumbles To Fresh Lows: $43 Handle
: Letsbereal January 29, 2015, 11:27:42 AM
Crude Crumbles To Fresh Lows: $43 Handle
29 January 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-29/crude-crumbles-fresh-lows-43-handle


Brent crude $48.53 and U.S. crude $43.76 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Goldman Sachs sees WTI crude oil at close to $40 per barrel in first half
: Letsbereal January 29, 2015, 09:35:36 PM
Goldman Sachs sees WTI crude oil at close to $40 per barrel in first half
28 January 2015
, London (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/28/us-oil-price-goldman-idUSKBN0L111L20150128

Goldman Sachs said on Wednesday it expected prices for WTI crude oil CLc1 to trade close to $40 per barrel for most of the first half of 2015 in one of the lowest forecasts among major investment banks.

Goldman, one of the most active banks in commodities, said that after a very weak first half prices should recover to $65 per barrel for WTI and $70 for Brent.

"This suggests a strong recovery from current prices, but the timing is uncertain and we would wait for signs of stabilization (less inventory build and better roll yields) before shifting to a more positive stance on commodities," Goldman said in a note.


Shell CEO sees long-term oil price at $90/barrel
29 January 2015
, London (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/29/us-shell-oil-price-idUSKBN0L213920150129

Oil prices should reach a long-term equilibrium of $90 per barrel, Royal Dutch Shell's Chief Executive Ben van Beurden told a conference call on Thursday.

He said it was impossible to predict when prices would return to those levels and said oil prices were poised to remain volatile in the mid-term.


Brent crude $48.97 and U.S. crude $44.58 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Re: Goldman Sachs sees WTI crude oil at close to $40 per barrel in first half
: larsonstdoc January 30, 2015, 11:05:40 AM
Goldman Sachs sees WTI crude oil at close to $40 per barrel in first half
28 January 2015
, London (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/28/us-oil-price-goldman-idUSKBN0L111L20150128

Goldman Sachs said on Wednesday it expected prices for WTI crude oil CLc1 to trade close to $40 per barrel for most of the first half of 2015 in one of the lowest forecasts among major investment banks.

Goldman, one of the most active banks in commodities, said that after a very weak first half prices should recover to $65 per barrel for WTI and $70 for Brent.

"This suggests a strong recovery from current prices, but the timing is uncertain and we would wait for signs of stabilization (less inventory build and better roll yields) before shifting to a more positive stance on commodities," Goldman said in a note.


Shell CEO sees long-term oil price at $90/barrel
29 January 2015
, London (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/29/us-shell-oil-price-idUSKBN0L213920150129

Oil prices should reach a long-term equilibrium of $90 per barrel, Royal Dutch Shell's Chief Executive Ben van Beurden told a conference call on Thursday.

He said it was impossible to predict when prices would return to those levels and said oil prices were poised to remain volatile in the mid-term.


Brent crude $48.97 and U.S. crude $44.58 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/

  Heading to $40.  I heard Dr. Jim Willie say that Wall Street has lost control of the price of oil.
: Crude Oil Prices Are Spiking (Again)
: Letsbereal January 30, 2015, 06:38:41 PM
Crude Oil Prices Are Spiking (Again)
30 January 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-30/crude-oil-prices-are-spiking-again


Indeed last weeks close also had a surprising uptick. Zero Hedge explains why.

Prices most likely will go down next week as it did last week.


Brent crude $52.99 and U.S. crude $48.24 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Is this finally the answer on ‘why low oil prices’ ?
: Letsbereal January 30, 2015, 11:50:56 PM
Is this finally the answer on ‘why low oil prices’ (***Next to ample supply not from the Arabs but from the U.S.)?

The $9 Trillion US Dollar Carry Trade is Blowing Up
23 January 2015
, by Phoenix Capital Research (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-23/9-trillion-us-dollar-carry-trade-blowing

This worked while the US Dollar was holding steady. But in the summer of last year (2014), the US Dollar began to breakout of a multi-year wedge pattern.

Why does this matter?

Because the minute the US Dollar began to rally aggressively, the global US Dollar carry trade began to blow up.

It is not coincidental that oil commodities, and emerging market stocks took a dive almost immediately after this process began.



***

(http://www.bloomberg.com/image/ia.tqzP1acJ0.jpg)

Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-28/here-comes-60-oil-as-opec-tests-u-s-shale-chart-of-the-day.html

There Are 300,000 Iraqi Barrels Signaling Oil Glut Will Deepen
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-12-03/there-are-300-000-iraqi-barrels-signaling-oil-glut-will-deepen.html

Oil Exports From U.S. Jump to Record as Shale Output Booms
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2015-01-07/oil-exports-from-u-s-jump-34-to-record-as-shale-output-booms.html

U.S. Oil Output Advances to Record Even as Prices Drop
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2015-01-14/u-s-oil-output-advances-to-record-even-as-prices-drop.html

Iraq to Double Exports of Kirkuk Crude Amid Oil Surplus
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2015-01-14/iraq-to-double-exports-of-kirkuk-crude-amid-oil-market-surplus.html

Increased U.S. Output Bolsters Oil Glut Fears Sending Prices Back Down
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2015-01-15/oil-extends-gains-to-near-50-after-climbing-most-in-2-1-2-years.html

Oil Falls as Record Iraqi Output Seen Compounding Surplus
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2015-01-19/oil-drops-below-48-a-barrel-as-u-s-resists-market-intervention.html

Shale Oil Growth in U.S. Hurts Canadians as Well as OPEC
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2015-01-21/shale-oil-growth-in-u-s-hurts-canadians-as-well-as-opec.html

U.S. December Oil Glut Highest Since Depression, API Says
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2015-01-23/u-s-december-oil-glut-highest-since-depression-api-says.html

Crude Supplies Surge To Highest Since At Least 1982
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-28/wti-tumbles-back-towards-44-handle-after-api-build-goldman-downgrade

U.A.E. Energy Minister Says Oil Glut Could Run for Years
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2015-01-07/u-a-e-energy-minister-says-oil-glut-could-run-for-years.html

OPEC sees 2015 supply surplus rising, even as oil slump slows shale boom
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/15/us-opec-oil-idUSKBN0KO14X20150115

Why Oil Prices Will Be “Lower For Longer” In 3 Simple Charts
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-26/why-oil-prices-will-be-lower-longer-3-simple-charts

Fewer oil rigs does not mean less crude, EIA says
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fewer-oil-rigs-does-not-equal-less-crude-eia-says-2015-01-26
: Brent crude $51.67 and U.S. crude $46.94 A Barrel Now - How Low Will It Go?
: Letsbereal February 01, 2015, 08:54:08 PM
(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/02/20150201_lowbama.jpg)


Brent crude $51.67 and U.S. crude $46.94 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $51.48 and U.S. crude $46.81 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $51.52 and U.S. crude $46.78 A Barrel Now
: Brent crude $54.98 and U.S. crude $49.91 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal February 02, 2015, 10:47:31 PM
Brent crude $54.98 and U.S. crude $49.91 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $55.12 and U.S. crude $49.99 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $55.64 and U.S. crude $50.16 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $56.20 and U.S. crude $50.68 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $56.60 and U.S. crude $51.12 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $57.74 and U.S. crude $52.73 A Barrel Now
: $100 oil isn’t coming back for a ‘long time’: BP CEO
: Letsbereal February 03, 2015, 04:35:26 PM
$100 oil isn’t coming back for a ‘long time’: BP CEO
3 February 2015
, by Barbara Kollmeyer - Madrid (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/100-oil-isnt-coming-back-for-a-long-time-bp-ceo-2015-02-03

What The Rig Plunge Really Means For The Price Of Oil
3 February 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-03/what-plunge-oil-rigs-really-means-oil-price

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2015/02/rigs%201_0.jpg)

Is The 2:30pm Oil Ramp The New 3:30pm Market Ramp?
3 February 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-03/230pm-oil-ramp-new-330pm-market-ramp


Brent crude $57.59 and U.S. crude $52.45 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $56.98 and U.S. crude $51.64 A Barrel Now
: Re: Brent crude $56.98 and U.S. crude $51.64 A Barrel Now
: larsonstdoc February 03, 2015, 08:25:55 PM


  Probably a false rally today.

http://www.finviz.com/futures.ashx
: Another Conspiracy Theory Becomes Fact: The Oil Collapse Is All About Russia
: Letsbereal February 03, 2015, 08:57:28 PM
Another Conspiracy Theory Becomes Fact: The Entire Oil Collapse Is All About Crushing Russian Control Over Syria
3 February 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-03/another-conspiracy-theory-becomes-fact-entire-oil-collapse-all-about-crushing-russia


FROM: Three Days of the Condor (1975) http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0073802/?ref_=ttqt_qt_tt

Joe Turner: What does Operations care about a bunch of damn books? A book in Dutch. A book out of Venezuela. Mystery stories in Arabic.

Atwood: Wait!

Joe Turner: What the hell is so important about…

[He stops as he sees the connection]

Joe Turner: Oil fields. Oil. That’s it, isn’t it? This whole damn thing was about oil! Wasn’t it? Wasn’t it?

Atwood: Yes, it was.



Brent crude $57.53 and U.S. crude $52.21 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $57.35 and U.S. crude $52.15 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $56.30 and U.S. crude $51.31 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $56.61 and U.S. crude $51.26 A Barrel Now
: Brent crude $54.67 and U.S. crude $48.68 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal February 04, 2015, 10:09:10 PM
Bit of Deja Vu all over again...

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/02/20150203_EOD3_0.jpg)

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-04/draghi-dashes-buffett-bounce-crude-carnage-continues


Brent crude $54.92 and U.S. crude $48.92 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $54.67 and U.S. crude $48.68 A Barrel Now
: Here’s why the oil glut may continue
: Letsbereal February 05, 2015, 01:25:17 AM
Here’s why the oil glut may continue
4 February 2015
, by Claudia Assis - San Francisco (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-why-the-oil-glut-may-continue-2015-02-04

Energy companies are slashing spending budgets and shutting down oil rigs, but don’t expect U.S. oil production to slow down soon.


Many oil firms plan no North Dakota layoffs despite cheap oil
4 February 2015
, by Ernest Scheyder - Williston (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/04/us-usa-north-dakota-oil-idUSKBN0L811Y20150204

Halliburton, Statoil, Hess Corp and other North Dakota energy companies have decided, for now, not to lay off staff in the No. 2 U.S. oil producing state, hoping to be prepared for any prolonged rebound in crude prices.


Brent crude $53.99 and U.S. crude $48.16 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $53.29 and U.S. crude $47.59 A Barrel Now
: $100 Oil Is at Least 3-5 Years Away: Abed
: Letsbereal February 05, 2015, 06:52:20 AM
$100 Oil Is at Least 3-5 Years Away: Abed https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y_odw8-GsJA

Feb 4, 2015 Bloomberg Business


Brent crude $55.26 and U.S. crude $49.15 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $56.79 and U.S. crude $50.70 A Barrel Now
: The Oil Collapse Is Over (Again); WTI Jumps 5%, Tops $51 (Again)
: Letsbereal February 05, 2015, 04:49:15 PM
The Oil Collapse Is Over (Again); WTI Jumps 5%, Tops $51 (Again)
5 February 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-05/oil-collapse-over-again-wti-jumps-5-tops-51-again

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/02/20150205_WTI_0.jpg)


Brent crude $56.71 and U.S. crude $50.81 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $56.73 and U.S. crude $50.92 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $57.10 and U.S. crude $51.18 A Barrel Now
: Saudis Deepen Asia Oil Discount to a a Record Low
: Letsbereal February 05, 2015, 11:59:49 PM
Saudis Deepen Asia Oil Discount to a a Record Low
6 February 2015
, by Mark Shenk and Anthony Dipaola (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-06/saudis-deepen-asia-oil-discount-to-a-a-record-low

Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude exporter, cut prices for March oil sales to Asia, a sign that the desert kingdom is fighting for market share.


Brent crude $57.01 and U.S. crude $51.15 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Rig Count Collapse Accelerates but Production Stays High
: Letsbereal February 06, 2015, 01:36:17 PM
US Rig Count Collapse Accelerates, Production Stays High
6 February 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-06/us-rig-count-collapse-accelerates-production-stays-high

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/02/20150206_rig2_0.jpg)


Brent crude $58.89 and U.S. crude $53.03 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Saudis Re-Unleash Oil Weapon, Slash Asia Prices By Most In 14 Years
: Letsbereal February 07, 2015, 12:04:21 AM
Saudis Re-Unleash Oil Weapon, Slash Asia Prices By Most In 14 Years http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-06/saudis-re-unleash-oil-weapon-slash-asia-prices-most-14-years

These Experts Know Exactly Where Oil Prices Are Headed - Somewhere Between $30 and $200 a Barrel http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-06/these-experts-know-exactly-where-oil-prices-are-headed


Brent crude $57.80 and U.S. crude $51.69 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Re: Saudis Re-Unleash Oil Weapon, Slash Asia Prices By Most In 14 Years
: larsonstdoc February 07, 2015, 01:47:07 PM
Saudis Re-Unleash Oil Weapon, Slash Asia Prices By Most In 14 Years http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-06/saudis-re-unleash-oil-weapon-slash-asia-prices-most-14-years

These Experts Know Exactly Where Oil Prices Are Headed - Somewhere Between $30 and $200 a Barrel http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-06/these-experts-know-exactly-where-oil-prices-are-headed


Brent crude $57.80 and U.S. crude $51.69 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/

  Somewhere between $30 and $200.  Make me laugh. 
: Oil price fall exacerbated by hedging, energy firms' debt: BIS
: Letsbereal February 08, 2015, 05:35:41 PM
Oil price fall exacerbated by hedging, energy firms' debt: BIS
7 February 2015
, London (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/07/us-oil-prices-bis-idUSKBN0LB0UF20150207

Oil’s dramatic price fall since mid-2014 cannot be explained by changes in production and consumption alone, with hedging and energy firms' high debt levels also playing a part, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) said on Saturday.

The BIS compared oil's recent fall, which saw prices collapse to below $50 a barrel from levels of above $100, with declines in 1996 and 2006 and concluded that unlike on previous occasions, this time oil production has been close to expectations and consumption was only slightly below forecasts.

“The steepness of the price decline and very large day-to-day price changes are reminiscent of a financial asset,” said the organization, representing central banks around the world.

While the recent OPEC decision not to cut production “has been key to the fall”, other factors could have exacerbated it, the BIS said.

These included increased indebtedness in the oil sector in recent years.

The Basel-based organization said this greater debt burden may have had an influence on the oil market itself.

“Against this background of high debt, a fall in the price of oil weakens the balance sheets of producers and tightens credit conditions, potentially exacerbating the price drop as a result of sales of oil assets,” it said.

The BIS said reduced cash flows as a result of a lower oil price heightened the risk of firms being unable to meet interest payments and this could lead them to continue pumping oil to maintain cash flows, delaying a reduction in supply.

This may be a particular factor in emerging markets where a stronger dollar would hit indebted companies even harder.

An increased reliance by oil producers on swap dealers as counterparties for their hedging since 2010 may also have played a part.

Dealers may "at times of heightened volatility and balance sheet strain for leveraged entities... become less willing to sell protection to oil producers," the BIS said.

It said volatility in the oil price "suggests that dealers may have behaved pro cyclically – cutting back positions whenever financial conditions become more turbulent".

This in turn may have led producers wishing to hedge falling revenues to turn to derivatives markets directly and could have played a role in recent price moves, the BIS said.
: New Mideast oil refineries could stir up fuel market
: Letsbereal February 09, 2015, 01:28:41 AM
New Mideast oil refineries could stir up fuel market
9 February 2015
, by Eric Yep and Summer Said - Singapore (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/new-mideast-oil-refineries-could-stir-up-fuel-market-2015-02-09

The startup of two huge oil refineries earlier this year in the Middle East is set to shake up fuel markets from Asia to Europe as the oil-producing region expands its influence beyond just exporting vast amounts of unprocessed crude.


Brent crude $58.05 and U.S. crude $52.11 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Great News America: Oil Prices Are Tumbling Once Again - WTI $50 Handle
: Letsbereal February 10, 2015, 11:49:39 AM
Great News America: Oil Prices Are Tumbling Once Again - WTI $50 Handle
10 February 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-10/great-news-america-oil-prices-are-tumbling-once-again-wti-50-handle


Brent crude $57.23 and U.S. crude $51.01 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Brent crude $56.57 and U.S. crude $50.20 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal February 10, 2015, 03:16:53 PM
Brent crude $56.57 and U.S. crude $50.20 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: OPEC Producers Cut Oil Prices to Asia in Battle for Market Share
: Letsbereal February 11, 2015, 02:49:28 AM
Drillers Take Second Crack at Fracking Old Wells to Cut Cost http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-10/drillers-take-second-crack-at-fracking-wells-to-cut-cost-energy

World's Biggest Oil Trader Warns Crude Prices Could Dive Again http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-10/biggest-oil-trader-says-fresh-price-drop-possible-on-u-s-supply

OPEC Producers Cut Oil Prices to Asia in Battle for Market Share http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-10/iran-s-heavy-crude-price-set-at-3-66-bbl-discount-for-march


Oil drops sharply as IEA expects inventories to rise http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/10/us-markets-oil-idUSKBN0LE06820150210

U.S. oil output 'party' to last to 2020: IEA http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/10/us-iea-oil-idUSKBN0LE02O20150210

EIA expects 2015, 2016 U.S. oil production unchanged http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/10/us-eia-oil-outlook-idUSKBN0LE2BL20150210


Oil rally snaps on bearish IEA outlook, U.S. crude below $51 http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/10/us-markets-oil-decline-idUSKBN0LE1ZU20150210

More oil price pressure may be ahead: IEA http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/10/us-oil-iea-report-idUSKBN0LE0S420150210

Oil drops sharply as IEA expects inventories to rise http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/10/us-markets-oil-idUSKBN0LE06820150210


Oil Is Going to Be Lower for Longer: Gordon - Vid http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-02-11/oil-is-going-to-be-lower-for-longer-gordon

IEA Sees U.S. Adding Most Oil to Global Supplies - Vid http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-02-10/iea-sees-u-s-adding-most-oil-to-global-supplies

Can Saudi Arabia Survive Oil Plunging to $20? - Vid http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-02-10/could-saudi-arabia-survive-oil-plunging-to-20-


Brent crude $56.83 and U.S. crude $50.50 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $56.05 and U.S. crude $50.06 A Barrel Now
: Brent crude $54.55 and U.S. crude $48.60 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal February 11, 2015, 06:30:55 AM
"Manipulated" WTI Tumbles To $48 Handle
11 February 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-11/manipulated-wti-tumbles-48-handle

WTI Nears $47 Handle After Inventory Build Doubles Expectations
11 February 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-11/wti-nears-47-handle-after-inventory-build-doubles-expectations

Top oil analyst: The worst is yet to come
3 Hours Ago
, by Karma Allen (CNBC)
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102414761

Apollo’s Energy Head Says Worst Is Yet to Come for Oil
11 February 2015
, by Devin Banerjee (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-11/apollo-s-energy-head-says-worst-is-yet-to-come-for-oil

Goldman Warns "Don't Count On Rig Declines To Balance The Oil Market Just Yet"
11 February 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-11/goldman-warns-dont-count-rig-declines-balance-oil-market-just-yet


Brent crude $55.72 and U.S. crude $49.65 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $55.61 and U.S. crude $49.63 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $55.56 and U.S. crude $49.56 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $55.23 and U.S. crude $49.43 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $54.63 and U.S. crude $48.89 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $54.55 and U.S. crude $48.60 A Barrel Now
: Re: Brent crude $54.55 and U.S. crude $48.60 A Barrel Now
: larsonstdoc February 11, 2015, 08:05:09 PM


Top oil analyst: The worst is yet to come
3 Hours Ago
, by Karma Allen (CNBC)
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102414761




  This guy believes the 30's.  Wow.
: Why We Won't See An Oil Price Rebound Yet
: Letsbereal February 12, 2015, 04:06:39 PM
Why We Won't See An Oil Price Rebound Yet
12 February 2015
, by Arthur Berman (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-12/why-we-wont-see-oil-price-rebound-yet

(https://oilprice.com/images/tinymce/Staff1/zyx2.png)

The chart shows that demand exceeded supply through the 4th quarter of 2013. That’s why oil prices were high in much of 2013 and in the first half of 2014.

Supply has exceeded demand for all of 2014. That’s why oil prices fell (a lag before the market reacts to a change in supply-demand balance is common).

The difference between supply and demand was greatest in the 2nd quarter of 2014 (1.27 mmbpd supply surplus) and then it dropped to 0.84 and 0.81 mmbpd in the 3rd and 4th quarters, respectively.

Better but still too much of a supply surplus.



Brent crude $57.05 and U.S. crude $51.14 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: U.S. Rigs Are Being Idled, but the Oil Boom Is Not Ending
: Letsbereal February 13, 2015, 03:08:57 AM
U.S. Rigs Are Being Idled, but the Oil Boom Is Not Ending
13 February 2015
, by Asjylyn Loder (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-13/rig-count-collapse-no-obstacle-to-booming-u-s-oil-output


Brent crude $60.03 and U.S. crude $51.86 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: US Rig Count Plunges By Most Since 1993, Production Hits Record Highs
: Letsbereal February 14, 2015, 01:21:48 AM
US Rig Count Plunges By Most Since 1993, Production Hits Record Highs
13 February 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-13/us-rig-count-plunges-most-1993-production-hits-record-highs

This Chart Shows Why the Number of Oil Rigs May Not Matter Anymore
13 February 2015
, by Tom Randall (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-13/this-chart-shows-why-the-number-of-oil-rigs-may-not-matter-anymore

Excerpt:

The theory goes that when oil rigs decline, fewer wells are drilled, less new oil is discovered, and oil production slows.

But production isn't slowing yet. In fact, last week the U.S. pumped more crude than at any time since the 1970s.

Why is this happening? For one thing, both the rigs and the oil wells are becoming more productive.

Producers are getting better at blasting oil and gas out of the ground.

The rigs that are being idled tend to be the older machines, and the most effective rigs are being concentrated on the most-productive oil fields.

“The relationship between rigs and energy production disconnected in 2008,” Eric Kuhle, a Wood Mackenzie analyst covering oil and gas in North America, told Bloomberg News reporter Lynn Doan.

“We see oil production growth slowing, but not declining.”


Brent crude $61.52 and U.S. crude $52.78 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Re: Brent crude $61.52 and U.S. crude $52.78 A Barrel Now
: larsonstdoc February 15, 2015, 10:30:34 AM
^^^^^^

  Closer to 60 than 40 now.  Time for the annual summer increase.
: Bomb Blast Hits Libya Pipeline Halts Oil Field Operations
: Letsbereal February 15, 2015, 06:59:10 PM
Bomb Blast Hits Libya Pipeline Halts Oil Field Operations https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=do01t7OlRM8
Feb 15, 2015 DAHBOO77

Libya Warns of Oil Shutdown as Attacks Escalate
14 February 2015
, by Maher Chmaytelli (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-14/libya-warns-of-complete-oil-shutdown-amid-escalation-of-violence

: Crude Is Still Below Break Even Price for GCC: Eid-Oakden - Vid
: Letsbereal February 16, 2015, 10:36:00 AM
Crude Is Still Below Break Even Price for GCC: Eid-Oakden - Vid http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-02-16/crude-is-still-below-break-even-price-for-gcc-eid-oakden

February 16, 2015 Bloomberg


Brent crude $61.59 and U.S. crude $52.78 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Is there any such thing as an oil “market” at all?
: Letsbereal February 17, 2015, 04:06:40 AM
CEO Of Rosneft Compares Oil Market Manipulation Which "Doesn't Reflect Reality" To Gold Price Rigging
16 January 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-16/ceo-rosneft-compares-oil-market-manipulation-which-doesnt-reflect-reality-gold-price

Financial bubbles, market manipulations, excessive regulation, regional disparities — so grotesque are these distortions that you might question whether there is any such thing as an oil “market” at all.

There is the semblance of a market: buyers and sellers and prices. But they are performing a charade.



Brent crude $61.74 and U.S. crude $53.14 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Why The Price Of Oil Is More Likely To Fall To 20 Rather Than Rise To 80
: Letsbereal February 17, 2015, 04:26:53 AM
Why The Price Of Oil Is More Likely To Fall To 20 Rather Than Rise To 80
16 February 2015
, by Michael Snyder (Bloomberg)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-16/why-price-oil-more-likely-fall-20-rather-rise-80


Brent crude $61.87 and U.S. crude $53.32 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Brent crude $60.69 and U.S. crude $51.36 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal February 17, 2015, 10:42:12 AM
Brent crude $60.69 and U.S. crude $51.36 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Brent crude $62.23 and U.S. crude $53.25 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal February 17, 2015, 05:36:57 PM
Brent crude $62.23 and U.S. crude $53.25 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Damped Harmonic Oscillator Algo Asks: What Happens Next In Oil?
: Letsbereal February 18, 2015, 01:46:20 PM
Damped Harmonic Oscillator Algo Asks: What Happens Next In Oil?
18 February 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-18/damped-harmonic-oscillator-algo-asks-what-happens-next-oil

We've seen this kind of algorithmically-controlled oscillation before... (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-29/damped-harmonic-oscillator-algo-exorcism-fannie-mae) What Happens Next?

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/02/20150218_WTI_0.jpg)


Brent crude $60.72 and U.S. crude $52.01 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $59.89 and U.S. crude $51.54 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $59.63 and U.S. crude $50.48 A Barrel Now
: Oil Falls From Seven-Week High With Supplies Seen Growing
: Letsbereal February 19, 2015, 07:43:41 AM
Oil Falls From Seven-Week High With Supplies Seen Growing http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-17/oil-halts-rally-as-u-s-crude-inventories-seen-expanding-glut

Oil Rally Seen Reversing as Rising U.S. Supply Deepens Glut http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-18/oil-rally-seen-reversing-as-unstoppable-u-s-supply-deepens-glut

Oil to Bounce Into the High 60s, Then Fall Again: Sen http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-02-18/oil-to-bounce-into-the-high-60s-then-fall-again-sen

$10-a-Barrel Oil Is Absolutely Possible: Schork http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-02-18/-10-a-barrel-oil-is-absolutely-possible-schork

U.S. Drilling Rig Count Points to $10 Oil: Shilling http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-02-17/u-s-drilling-rig-count-points-to-10-oil-shilling

The Hot New Statistic Oil Traders Are Eyeing Is 71 Years Old http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-18/the-hot-new-statistic-oil-traders-are-looking-at-is-71-years-old


Brent crude $59.04 and U.S. crude $50.21 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $58.94 and U.S. crude $50.04 A Barrel Now
: Brent crude $58.18 and U.S. crude $49.41 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal February 19, 2015, 10:15:02 AM
WTI $49 Handle, Brent Under $59 On Inventory Build Concerns
19 February 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-19/wti-49-handle-brent-under-59-inventory-build-concerns

EIA Crude Inventories & Production Surge To Record Highs
19 February 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-19/eia-crude-inventories-production-surge-record-highs


Brent crude $58.18 and U.S. crude $49.41 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Saudi Oil Output Rising Amid Fight for Market Share
: Letsbereal February 20, 2015, 01:55:42 PM
Saudi Oil Output Rising Amid Fight for Market Share http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-19/saudi-arabia-oil-production-rises-to-about-10-mln-b-d-pira

Oil Can Drop to $39 a Barrel: Goldman Sachs's Currie http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-02-19/oil-can-drop-to-39-a-barrel-goldman-sachs-s-currie

Rigs Running Hot Offshore as Shale Scales Back http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-19/rigs-running-hot-offshore-as-shale-scales-back

Shale Giant Says U.S. Output Will Fall This Year on Drastic Cuts http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-18/eog-quarterly-profit-declines-as-oil-crash-trumps-prolific-wells

These places have lost the most rigs since crude’s collapse http://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-places-have-lost-the-most-rigs-since-crudes-collapse-2015-02-19

Why crude-oil inventories are climbing even as prices plunge http://www.marketwatch.com/story/mounting-oil-supplies-approach-virgin-territory-even-as-prices-drop-2015-02-19

US Oil Rig Count Tumbles To July 2011 Lows, Pace Slows http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-20/us-oil-rig-count-tumbles-july-2011-lows-pace-slows


Brent crude $60.32 and U.S. crude $50.54 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $60.22 and U.S. crude $50.34 A Barrel Now
: Canadian Oil Sands Output Growth Defies Plunge in Prices
: Letsbereal February 21, 2015, 01:03:28 PM
Canadian Oil Sands Output Growth Defies Plunge in Prices: Energy
20 February 2015
, by Robert Tuttle (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-20/canadian-oil-sands-output-growth-defies-plunge-in-prices-energy

Excerpt:

The deluge of Canadian oil that’s adding to a global glut and driving prices lower is showing few signs of slowing.

Even with crude down 52% since June, output will grow 3.5% this year from the world’s fifth-biggest producer.

The Canadian dollar is near a six-year low and materials cost less, helping oil sands producers cut costs and keep pumping.

Oil would have to stay between $30 and $35 a barrel for at least six months, down from about $50 now, before wells and mines are shut, according to the Canadian Energy Research Institute.

Surging North American production has contributed to a global glut, pushing U.S. supply to the highest in three decades.

OPEC opted in November to maintain output to hold on to market share.

Oil sands supply is growing even as the number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. has fallen to the lowest in almost four years.

RBC Dominion Securities estimates that oil companies have cut $86 billion from spending plans.

“We are above the price where existing projects” get shut down, Robert Johnston, chief executive officer of risk consultants Eurasia Group, said in Calgary Feb. 4.

“Even projects that are under construction will continue.”

Western Canadian Select, the heavy crude that serves as the benchmark for oil sands, traded at $37.10 a barrel, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

It was $13.50 below West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark.


So let's get it there I hear the Arabs thinking. IAW expect lower oil prices soon.
: Brent crude $59.31 and U.S. crude $49.74 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal February 23, 2015, 06:44:18 AM
Brent crude $59.31 and U.S. crude $49.74 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Commodities Crushed: WTI Plunges To $48 Handle, Copper Breaks Key Support
: Letsbereal February 23, 2015, 08:57:21 AM
Commodities Crushed: WTI Plunges To $48 Handle, Copper Breaks Key Support
23 February 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-23/commodities-crushed-wti-plunges-48-handle-copper-breaks-key-support

Oman Producing All-Out on Oil as Price Rout Seen Over
22 February 2015
, by Vivian Nereim (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-22/oman-targeting-maximum-oil-output-as-global-price-rout-seen-over


Brent crude $58.69 and U.S. crude $48.84 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Re: Canadian Oil Sands Output Growth Defies Plunge in Prices
: larsonstdoc February 23, 2015, 11:20:51 AM
Canadian Oil Sands Output Growth Defies Plunge in Prices: Energy
20 February 2015
, by Robert Tuttle (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-20/canadian-oil-sands-output-growth-defies-plunge-in-prices-energy

Excerpt:

The deluge of Canadian oil that’s adding to a global glut and driving prices lower is showing few signs of slowing.

Western Canadian Select, the heavy crude that serves as the benchmark for oil sands, traded at $37.10 a barrel, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

It was $13.50 below West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark.


So let's get it there I hear the Arabs thinking. IAW expect lower oil prices soon.

  So what is the real purpose of the Keystone Pipeline?

: Re: Canadian Oil Sands Output Growth Defies Plunge in Prices
: Letsbereal February 23, 2015, 11:57:46 AM
  So what is the real purpose of the Keystone Pipeline?

Transportation via a pipeline is simply much cheaper than via railway.

But since crony capitalist Buffet tunneled campaign/bribe money to Obama he is blocking this pipeline.

Warren Buffett And The Keystone Pipeline: Cause And Effect http://www.ibtimes.com/warren-buffett-keystone-pipeline-cause-effect-1560093

And I can imagine that the US shale industry don't like to see this pipeline coming either.

And there is an other problem.

Energy transportation is clogging up the railway system so much that farmers can't deliver all their products to the market.

Oil Clogging U.S. Rail Seen Constricting Grain Exports http://www.agweb.com/article/oil-clogging-us-rail-seen-constricting-grain-exports/
: The Oil Markets Are Rigged - Here's How
: Letsbereal February 23, 2015, 03:57:44 PM
Don’t be fooled by signs Brent oil futures have hit a floor
23 February 2015
, by Myra P. Saefong - San Francisco (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont-be-fooled-by-signs-brent-oil-futures-have-hit-a-floor-2015-02-23

The Oil Markets Are Rigged - Here's How
23 February 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-23/oil-markets-are-rigged-heres-how

Oil Pumps-And-Dumps On Nigeria Comments On Emergency OPEC Meeting; OPEC Denies
23 February 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-23/oil-spikes-nigeria-commnets-possible-emergency-opec-meeting

The Rig Count "Meme" (And Why The Bounce In WTI Is Likely Over)
23 February 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-23/rig-count-meme-and-why-bounce-wti-likely-over

RECAP:

Fewer oil rigs does not mean less crude, EIA says
26 January 2015
, by Claudia Assis - San Francisco (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fewer-oil-rigs-does-not-equal-less-crude-eia-says-2015-01-26

Here’s why the oil glut may continue
4 February 2015
, by Claudia Assis - San Francisco (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-why-the-oil-glut-may-continue-2015-02-04

Energy companies are slashing spending budgets and shutting down oil rigs, but don’t expect U.S. oil production to slow down soon.

U.S. Rigs Are Being Idled, but the Oil Boom Is Not Ending
13 February 2015
, by Asjylyn Loder (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-13/rig-count-collapse-no-obstacle-to-booming-u-s-oil-output

This Chart Shows Why the Number of Oil Rigs May Not Matter Anymore
13 February 2015
, by Tom Randall (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-13/this-chart-shows-why-the-number-of-oil-rigs-may-not-matter-anymore


Brent crude $58.83 and U.S. crude $49.12 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Brent crude $58.79 and U.S. crude $49.09 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal February 24, 2015, 05:28:25 AM
Is Oil Returning To $100 Or Dropping To $10?
24 February 2015
, by Martin Tillier (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-24/oil-returning-100-or-dropping-10

WTI Crude Slides To $48 Handle On Bigger Than Expected API Inventory Build
24 February 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-24/wti-crude-slides-48-handle-bigger-expected-api-inventory-build

Amid oil slide, some OPEC members pine for production cuts
24 February 2015
, by Myra P. Saefong - San Francisco (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-opec-ready-to-announce-an-output-cut-2015-02-23

Excerpt:

So far, “crude-oil supplies remain strong, and OPEC is showing no signs of cutting in the immediate future,” said Kevin Kerr, president of Kerr Trading International on Monday.

“That is all putting pressure on [WTI] crude around the $50 mark.”

But “the wild card here remains to be when will the Saudis cut production,” he said. “Without that piece of the global jigsaw puzzle, prices remain trapped in this range of say $35-$55.”

“Once the Saudi’s announce a production cut—and they will—combined with all the lost production and infrastructure in the U.S. and elsewhere, prices could jump rapidly,” speculated Kerr.

“It’s a game of dangerous musical chairs, and I think we are about 3/4 of the way through the song, so traders should start looking for a chair soon,” he said.


Brent crude $58.79 and U.S. crude $49.09 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Sean Hyman: Higher oil prices are in the future
: Letsbereal February 25, 2015, 05:31:32 PM
Crude Oil Inventories Surge For 7th Week In A Row To Record Highs Amid Record Production
25 February 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-25/crude-oil-inventories-surge-7th-week-row-record-highs-amid-record-production

How To Trade Oil For HFT Idiots
25 February 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-25/how-trade-oil-hft-idiots

While we previously exposed the 1430ET NYMEX Close Ramp trade, it appears a new algo-idiot trade has made an appearance. "Sell API Inventory data, Buy DOE Inventory Data"

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-03/230pm-oil-ramp-new-330pm-market-ramp

On both of these occasions, the DOE build was much higher than expected BUT the spin, of course, was that it wasn't as bad as the API build the prior evening...

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/02/20150225_oil_0.jpg)

Don't forget - today's DOE data showed record production, record inventories, and the biggest inventory build in 5 weeks... but apart from that it all makes perfect sense.


Sean Hyman: Higher oil prices are in the future https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TcQ3LyWB2xU
Feb 25, 2015 WallStForMainSt

Brent crude up 5 percent as Saudi sees improved demand for oil
25 February 2015
, (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/25/us-markets-oil-idUSKBN0LT08620150225


Brent crude $61.95 and U.S. crude $51.03 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $61.63 and U.S. crude $50.81 A Barrel Now
: Brent crude $61.11 and U.S. crude $49.45 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal February 26, 2015, 10:37:58 AM
U.S. Oil’s Discount to Global Benchmark at 13-Month High http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-25/oil-holds-gain-above-50-as-saudi-arabia-sees-stronger-demand

Nigeria Proposes Cutting Oil Price Benchmark to $52 a Barrel http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-25/nigerian-senate-executive-propose-cut-to-oil-price-benchmark

Brent Premium to WTI Widens as U.S. Supplies Gain Again http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-25/brent-premium-to-wti-widens-as-u-s-supplies-gain-again

U.S. Oil Inventories Surge for Seventh Week - After a jump of 2%, they're at an 80-year high http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-25/greek-curve-shows-long-term-prospects-doubts-chart-of-the-day

Another Big Reason to Think Oil Prices Aren't Going Up Soon - Inventories bursting at the seams http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-20/another-big-reason-to-think-oil-prices-aren-t-going-up-soon


Brent crude $61.57 and U.S. crude $49.63 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $61.11 and U.S. crude $49.45 A Barrel Now
: Re: Brent crude $61.57 and U.S. crude $49.63 A Barrel
: Geolibertarian February 26, 2015, 10:59:04 AM
Just as unseasonably cold temperatures are blamed on global "warming," a plummet in oil prices is blamed on "dollar devaluation."

If that isn't Orwellian doublethink, then nothing is.
: Oil just settled at its lowest level in a month
: Letsbereal February 26, 2015, 02:29:57 PM
Oil futures retreat as natural-gas prices sink 4%
26 February 2015
, by Myra P. Saefong & Eric Yep - San Francisco (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-gives-back-some-gains-as-investors-weigh-up-supply-2015-02-26

How To Trade Oil For HFT Idiots 102
26 February 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-26/how-trade-oil-hft-idiots-102

Yesterday we provided the initial template for how to trade oil if you are an HFT idiot. Today we move to the next step in the evolution...

In a perfect mirror of last week's trading, Oil dumped on API inventories this week, pumped on DOE inventories (both massively more than expected builds) and then dumped it all back the next day on absolutely no news whatsoever - back to a $48 handle.

Tomorrow we have 'rig count' data - which by now we know is entirely irrelevent for now to any changes in supply - but last week created a manic meltup into the NYMEX close... trade accordingly.

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/02-overflow/20150226_WTI48_0.jpg)

As we noted above, if prior performance is a predictor of future success (or failure), and with self-referential HFT algos it ususally is, ahead of tomorrow's 103rd lesson,

here is what tomorrow's trading session should look like, when factoring in the all important "latest and greatest"rig count plunge.

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/02-overflow/20150226_WTI481_0.jpg)


Brent crude $60.54 and U.S. crude $48.78 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Trading Oil For HFT Idiots: Lesson Complete
: Letsbereal February 27, 2015, 06:24:14 PM
Oil Prices Tumble As Pace Of Rig Count Decline Slows
27 February 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-27/oil-prices-tumble-pace-rig-count-decline-slows

As Brean Capital's Peter Tchir recent noted, despite the plunge in rig counts, so far there is no sign of contraction in output.


Trading Oil For HFT Idiots: Lesson Complete
27 February 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-27/trading-oil-hft-idiots-lesson-complete

Who could have seen this coming? In lesson 101, we 'taught' the HFT idiots that you "Sell API, and Buy DOE Inventories."

In lesson 102, we 'taught' the HFT idiots that you then "Sell the DOE Rip."

Today, we finish with a big "told you so dance" as we 'taught' the HFT idiots yesterday, no matter what WTI will ramp insanely into the Friday NYMEX close after rig count data.

Next we get the insta-dump...

Seriously!!!!

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/02-overflow/20150227_oil_0.jpg)


Brent crude $62.58 and U.S. crude $49.76 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Oil May Fall Again Says Analyst Who Predicted ’09 Rebound
: Letsbereal March 01, 2015, 09:34:36 AM
Oil May Fall Again Says Analyst Who Predicted ’09 Rebound http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-27/oil-may-have-double-dip-says-analyst-who-predicted-09-rebound

Iraq Takes Second Spot Among China Oil Sellers as Russia Cedes http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-27/iraq-takes-second-spot-among-china-oil-sellers-as-russia-cedes

Oil Bargains for Asia Stretch to Mexico as Ships Set Sail http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-27/oil-bargains-for-asia-stretch-to-mexico-as-ships-set-sail
: WTI Explodes Higher, Brent Unchanged As Algos Reminisce
: Letsbereal March 02, 2015, 01:08:16 PM
Crude Carnage Continues Amid Saudi Production & Storage Limits
2 March 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-02/crude-carnage-continues-amid-saudi-production-storage-limits

WTI Explodes Higher, Brent Unchanged As Algos Reminisce
2 March 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-02/wti-explodes-higher-brent-unchanmged-algos-reminisce

It is deja vu all over again - just as it did last week - after dumping into Monday open, the machines ramp WTI (on no news and certainly not on the back of any data which was all abysmal).

Behold a "market" controlled by lasers http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-01/meanwhile-over-new-york-stock-exchange-lasers

You are Here...

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/03/20150302_wti_1_0.jpg)

Rinse Repeat.

US Will Never Gain Oil Market Crown, IEA Chief Says
2 March 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-02/us-will-never-gain-oil-market-crown-eia-chief-says

Bearish Oil Wagers Surge to Record as Glut Keeps Growing: Energy
2 March 2015
, by Lynn Doan (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-02/bearish-oil-wagers-surge-to-record-as-glut-keeps-growing-energy


Brent crude $60.48 and U.S. crude $50.48 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $59.91 and U.S. crude $49.48 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $60.30 and U.S. crude $49.91 A Barrel Now
: L-Shaped Oil Recovery Flattens V-Shaped Market Optimists
: Letsbereal March 02, 2015, 11:18:08 PM
L-Shaped Oil Recovery Flattens V-Shaped Market Optimists
3 March 2015
, by Bradley Olson (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-03/l-shaped-oil-recovery-flattens-v-shaped-market-optimists

Excerpt:

Get ready for an L-shaped oil recovery.

A growing consensus is emerging from the likes of BP Plc, the International Energy Agency, shale wildcatters and even the Saudis that a near-term recovery to $100-a-barrel crude isn’t in the cards.

Instead, expect a range of $50 to $60 for at least the next few years.

When oil prices plunged sharply in 2008, they rebounded almost as quickly. Several months ago, industry and government touted the same U or V-shaped recovery this time out.

On closer examination, a new factor in the marketplace -- shale oil -- has changed their minds.

“This is the new normal,” Dennis Cassidy, co-leader of the oil and natural gas practice for consulting company AlixPartners, said in an interview.

His group sees an L-shaped chart that could extend for three to five years.

Unlike other petroleum formations, the nature of shale -- with multiple inexpensive, short-lived wells -- means producers can stop and start drilling on a dime.

On the one hand, this allows them to quickly cut costs in a downturn; on the other, every time prices tick up, so will their output -- renewing downward pressure on prices.

While an offshore well usually costs about $100 million to drill, and takes as long as 10 years and billions more to begin producing from a new field, a shale well requires only several million dollars and a few weeks to coax out oil and gas.

No Coordination

“When the price of oil recovers, most shale formations will be aggressively exploited,” said Leonardo Maugeri, a former Eni SpA vice president and now a researcher at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science & International Affairs.

Based on his appreciation of shale’s special qualities, he predicted the current glut in 2012.

No central authority tells shale drillers, who have been described as the new “swing producers,” what to do.

Unlike the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, the effect they’ll have in holding down prices comes from a set of independent decisions influenced by the need to deliver shareholder returns.

The expectation that U.S. producers will boost drilling as soon as prices improve is why oil executives, including BP Chief Executive Officer Bob Dudley, are saying they don’t see $100 a barrel returning for a “long time.”

Chesapeake Energy Corp. and Oneok Partners LP are among companies basing their budgets on an assumption that oil will stick to about $50 to $55 a barrel this year, with $65 the ceiling for next year.


Brent crude $60.39 and U.S. crude $49.93 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Re: Brent crude $60.39 and U.S. crude $49.93 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal March 03, 2015, 01:28:11 PM
Could Oil Prices Plummet A Second Time?
3 March 2015
, by Nick Cunningham (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-03/could-oil-prices-plummet-second-time

The surge in shale production has produced a temporary glut in supplies causing oil prices to experience a massive bust.

After tanking to a low of $44 per barrel in January, falling rig counts and enormous reductions in exploration budgets have fueled speculation that the market will correct sometime later this year.

However, there is a possibility that the recent rise to $51 for WTI and $60 for Brent may only be temporary. In fact, several trends are conspiring to force prices down for a second time.


Crude Jumps After API Inventories Build Less Than Expected
3 March 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-03/crude-surges-after-api-inventories-build-less-expected

The last three times that API inventories reported (each notably greater than expected), crude prices tumbled (only to ramp hilariously the next day following DOE inventory data).

Against Bloomberg estimates of a 3.95 million barrel build, API printed only a 2.89 million barrel build; and WTI crude prices surged to the day's highs.

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/03/20150303_API1_0.jpg)

Breaking the pattern...

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/03/20150303_API_0.jpg)


Why $100 Oil Won't Be Coming Back for a Long Time
3 March 2015
, by Bradley Olson (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-03/l-shaped-oil-recovery-flattens-v-shaped-market-optimists


Brent crude $60.92 and U.S. crude $50.40 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $60.88 and U.S. crude $50.38 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $61.02 and U.S. crude $50.31 A Barrel Now
: Biggest Weekly Oil Inventory Build In 14 Years
: Letsbereal March 04, 2015, 12:19:04 PM
Crude Plunges On Biggest Weekly Inventory Build In 14 Years
4 March 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-04/crude-plunges-biggest-weekly-inventory-build-14-years


Brent crude $59.68 and U.S. crude $49.89 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $60.38 and U.S. crude $50.81 A Barrel Now
: The Only Notable Thing About Today's Beige Book Release... WTF Oil!?
: Letsbereal March 04, 2015, 02:45:16 PM
The Only Notable Thing About Today's Beige Book Release...
4 March 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-04/only-notable-thing-about-todays-beige-book-release

...is that while nobody actually cares about its contents, when the flashing red headlines hit, they set off a firestorm of HFT algo buying in WTI on the day of the biggest inventory build in...forever.

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/03/20150304_beige_0.jpg)

Just movin' along through New Paranormal market, because the binary music is still playing.


Brent crude $60.78 and U.S. crude $51.91 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Global Oil Production
: Letsbereal March 04, 2015, 07:03:21 PM
Oil Or Stocks - Will The Market Representing The Real Economy Please Stand Up!?!
4 March 2015
, by Chris Hamilton (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-04/oil-or-stocks-will-market-representing-real-economy-please-stand

Excerpt:

The first chart is global oil production, by month, based on latest EIA data. 

2014 saw significant production increases after fairly flat production in '12 and '13.

(http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v393/youricarma/Miscellaneous/index1_zps279cgxzp.png) Source, EIA

And just so we're clear where nearly all the production gains came from...check 2005 and note global production (x-US / Canada) barely rises on the spiking price...

but US / Canada production rockets 7mbpd over the period.

(http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v393/youricarma/Miscellaneous/index2_zpsxt9k3s09.png) Source, EIA

A close up of US / Canadian production (below).

(http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v393/youricarma/Miscellaneous/index3_zpshcqxzqxv.png) Source, EIA


Saudi Arabia Vows to Keep Pumping as Oil Strategy Is Successful
4 March 2015
, by Grant Smith (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-04/saudi-arabia-to-keep-pumping-as-much-oil-as-its-customers-need

The U.S. Is Pumping Even More Oil and Storage Tanks Are Getting Filled to the Brim
4 March 2015
, by Tom Randall (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-04/the-u-s-is-pumping-even-more-oil-and-storage-tanks-are-getting-filled-to-the-brim

Exxon Says Output Growth on Track Even as Crude Price Drops
4 March 2015
, by Joe Carroll (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-04/exxon-says-output-growth-on-track-even-as-crude-price-declines


Brent crude $60.55 and U.S. crude $51.63 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: The Price of Oil Is Down, So Why Is Production Still Going Up?
: Letsbereal March 05, 2015, 04:28:57 PM
The Price of Oil Is Down, So Why Is Production Still Going Up? - America's oil paradox explained
5 March 2015
, by Tom Randall (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-05/the-price-of-oil-is-down-so-why-is-production-still-going-up-

Watch Vid: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-03-05/why-cheap-oil-doesn-t-stop-the-drilling


Storage dearth may drive oil prices to $30
5 March 2015
, by Myra P. Saefong - San Francisco (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/storage-dearth-may-drive-oil-prices-to-30-2015-03-05

As the U.S. runs out of space to store its glut of crude-oil supplies, prices for the commodity could sink to as low as $30 a barrel.


Brent crude $60.63 and U.S. crude $50.89 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Rig Count Decline Re-Accelerates To 2nd Biggest Drop In 22 Years
: Letsbereal March 06, 2015, 03:22:36 PM
Rig Count Decline Re-Accelerates To 2nd Biggest Drop In 22 Years
6 March 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-06/rig-count-decline-accelerates-again-2nd-biggest-drop-22-years

But production continues to hit record highs...

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/03/20150306_rig3_0.jpg)


Oil Rigs Get Slammed for the 13th Week - Worse than expected
6 March 2015
, by Tom Randall (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-06/oil-rigs-get-slammed-for-the-13th-week

Crude Awakening: Why Next Week Could Be Carnage For Oil ETFs
6 March 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-06/crude-awakening-why-next-week-could-be-carnage-oil-etfs


Brent crude $59.79 and U.S. crude $49.62 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $59.73 and U.S. crude $49.61 A Barrel Now
: Sasol, biggest producer of liquid fuels from coal expects 30% lower oil prices
: Letsbereal March 09, 2015, 06:18:19 AM
Sasol Adds $4.2 Billion to Saving Target Amid Oil-Price Drop
9 March 2015
, by Paul Burkhardt (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-09/sasol-profit-rises-6-2-as-dividend-trimmed-after-oil-price-drop

Excerpt:

Sasol, the biggest producer of liquid fuels from coal, plans to conserve as much as $4.2 billion in cash in addition to its cost-saving strategy as an oil drop drags down prices of its products.

In the near term, we expect tough trading conditions to prevail for the remainder of calendar year 2015,” Group Financial Controller Paul Victor said.

The company expects average Brent crude-oil prices to be at least 30% lower during the second half of the financial year compared with the first and sees the rand-dollar rate being affected by quantitative easing in Europe.

By Dec. 31, almost 1,500 jobs were cut through voluntary separations and early retirements, it said.

Sasol, whose expenses are mostly in rand, benefits from the currency’s decline against the dollar.

“The increased cost of production resulting from higher-than-inflationary increases in feedstock and utilities, as well as the reduction in the basic fuel price on the back of lower international crude oil prices, resulted in an 18% negative impact on our gross margin,” it said.


Hedge Funds Are Losing Faith in Oil Rally While Inventory Swells
9 March 2015
, by Mark Shenk (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-09/hedge-funds-losing-faith-in-oil-rally-as-glut-builds-energy


Goldman Blames Weather For Stronger Oil Prices, Sees WTI Sliding Back To $40
9 March 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-09/goldman-blames-weather-stronger-oil-prices-sees-wti-sliding-back-40


Brent crude $59.01 and U.S. crude $49.51 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Brent crude dips below $58 on strong dollar and supply
: Letsbereal March 10, 2015, 08:08:18 AM
Brent crude dips below $58 on strong dollar and supply
10 March 2015
, by Claire Milhench - London (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/10/us-markets-oil-idUSKBN0M505B20150310

Investors Are Buying Stocks and Bonds From Energy Producers Amid Oil Price Drop – U.S. and Canadian companies have sold more than $8.4 billion of new stock
9 March 2015
, by Corrie Driebusch, Ryan Dezember and Mike Cherney (Wall Street Journal)
http://www.wsj.com/articles/energy-firms-feed-stocks-and-1425936826

Excerpt:

Goodrich Petroleum had little trouble last week selling $49.8 million of stock as well as loans to replace some of its bank credit.

Though the new shares were quickly sold in the hours before the market opened March 2, Goodrich stock lost 12% during the trading day.

The offering gave Goodrich “liquidity and comfort through 2016” should oil prices remain in their current range, said Robert Turnham, the company’s president.

“It is painful to suffer the dilution, but it ensures you get to the other side of the abyss.”


Brent crude $57.71 and U.S. crude $49.55 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $56.88 and U.S. crude $49.31 A Barrel Now
: WTI Crude Slides To $48 Handle As Chevron Cuts Costs, Ramps Production
: Letsbereal March 10, 2015, 01:18:27 PM
WTI Crude Slides To $48 Handle As Chevron Cuts Costs, Ramps Production
10 March 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-10/wti-crude-slides-48-handle-chevron-cuts-costs-ramps-production

US May Run Out Of Oil Storage Space As Soon As June
10 March 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-10/us-may-run-out-oil-storage-soon-june

And: "Refineries typically shut units for planned maintenance in the late winter and early spring to be able to run at full capacity during the summer driving season."
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-09/u-s-shale-oil-growth-slows-as-price-crash-idles-drilling-rigs


Brent crude $56.70 and U.S. crude $48.70 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $56.33 and U.S. crude $48.23 A Barrel Now
: Bond Investors, Don’t Look Now But Crude Oil Is Falling Again
: Letsbereal March 11, 2015, 11:10:55 AM
Bond Investors, Don’t Look Now But Crude Oil Is Falling Again
11 March 2015
, by Wes Goodman (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-11/treasuries-hold-two-day-gain-as-yields-attract-while-oil-slides

Bond investors, don’t look now but crude oil is falling again. That’s extra reason to expect low inflation and gains in Treasuries, the world’s biggest debt market.

Oil Prices Fall as U.S. Storage Continues to Fill Up for Ninth Straight Week
11 March 2015
, by Tom Randall (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-11/u-s-oil-storage-continues-to-fill-for-the-ninth-straight-week

U.S. oil inventories rose for the ninth consecutive week as producers continued to ramp up production. Crude prices fell to the lowest level in a month.


Oil ETF Slides Hard On Contango Tangle
11 March 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-11/oil-etf-slides-hard-contango-tangle

Everyone Is Guessing When It Comes To Oil Prices
11 March 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-11/everyone-guessing-when-it-comes-oil-prices


Brent crude $56.27 and U.S. crude $47.40 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: The U.S. Has Too Much Oil and Nowhere to Put It
: Letsbereal March 12, 2015, 06:50:18 AM
The U.S. Has Too Much Oil and Nowhere to Put It
12 March 2015
, by Matthew Philips (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-12/oil-storage-squeeze-may-lead-to-another-price-crash

Overflowing storage tanks could lead to another drop in prices


Brent crude $58.31 and U.S. crude $48.55 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Re: The U.S. Has Too Much Oil and Nowhere to Put It
: Geolibertarian March 12, 2015, 09:40:23 AM
The U.S. Has Too Much Oil and Nowhere to Put It

Is that not an amusing headline in light of all the "peak oil (http://www.hubbertpeak.com/campbell/)" hysteria we've been hearing since at least the mid-1990s?
: Re: The U.S. Has Too Much Oil and Nowhere to Put It
: jofortruth March 12, 2015, 10:55:39 AM

"The U.S. Has Too Much Oil and Nowhere to Put It"

Is that not an amusing headline in light of all the "peak oil (http://www.hubbertpeak.com/campbell/)" hysteria we've been hearing since at least the mid-1990s?


Yeah, it tells us they lied about that also!

http://z4.invisionfree.com/The_Great_Deception/index.php?showtopic=7411

: Cushing Crude Build Concerns Send WTI To $47 Handle
: Letsbereal March 12, 2015, 11:33:08 AM
Cushing Crude Build Concerns Send WTI To $47 Handle
12 March 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-12/cushing-crude-build-concerns-send-wti-47-handle


Brent crude $58.08 and U.S. crude $47.95 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $57.29 and U.S. crude $47.43 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $57.22 and U.S. crude $47.11 A Barrel Now
: Re: The U.S. Has Too Much Oil and Nowhere to Put It
: JT Coyoté March 12, 2015, 12:54:11 PM
Is that not an amusing headline in light of all the "peak oil (http://www.hubbertpeak.com/campbell/)" hysteria we've been hearing since at least the mid-1990s?

Yes, and way before the 90's... it was predicted, or should I say planned in the 1950s and rolled out in the early '70s with the first gas and oil shortage... a perfect "no shooting" take over plan was initiated.


Peak Oil spill, or uncapped Abiotic gusher? (http://www.infowars.com/peak-oil-spill-or-uncapped-abiotic-gusher/)

JT Coyoté
Infowars.com (http://www.infowars.com/peak-oil-spill-or-uncapped-abiotic-gusher/)
June 20, 2010

“Oh what tangled webs we weave when first we practice to deceive.”  This line from the epic poem “Marmion” by Sir Walter Scott, describes quite accurately the long twisting of facts and plausible deny-ability of outcomes engaged in over the last century that have all culminated in the enormous oil “spill” in the coastal waters of Louisiana we see today.

As we all remember from our school days, oil comes from fossils hence the name fossil fuel, right?  We were taught that oil was a finite resource created by millions of years of heat and pressure on ancient remains which produced the rare black crude we convert into gasoline and other petrochemicals. This theory was foisted by the large oil companies in the 1950s, an attempt at explaining the fossil imprint observed in crude oil. Thus the theory contains the view that oil will eventually run out– big oil’s opportunity for a fundamental scarcity scheme and an ever increasing pricing structure.

In 1956 geophysicist Marion Hubbert’s research on the estimated oil reserves and projected oil production in the US, concluded a peak would occur between 1966 and 1972 — Peak Oil Theory.  When his projections coincided somewhat with the first oil shortage in 1973, it reverberated world wide. This was short-lived however, soon new supplies were discovered offshore, in Alaska and elsewhere. Yet the finite fossil origins of oil were still jealously clung to even though big oil knew of the more plausible abiotic origin even then.

The geological Abiotic Oil Theory  gives a more scientifically demonstrable oil creation model. It shows constant production originating in the Earth’s deepest boundary crust, where elements undergo a high heat and pressure transformation interaction with magma and the mantle.  This theory of non biological oil has resurfaced  through the work of noted physicist and astronomer, Dr. Thomas Gold. As Dr. Gold states it, the reason for the fossil signature in crude oil is because under high pressure it passes through many ancient fossil layers on its way to its resting place in subterranean caverns and fossil sands beneath the surface.

Through the relatively new practice of drilling extremely deep wells 25,000 feet or deeper, such as the ones in the Louisiana Gulf, and by Russia in the Arctic, all gushing oil having no fossil signature. Marion Hubbert’s Peak theory is going the way of the dinosaur.  We are seeing the abiotic theory being vindicated and proven to be the likely oil creation process.

So where does that leave us? Well, the recent reporting of heated dialogues between the on site geologists, as well as technicians from other companies, with the British Petroleum executives who completely disregarded proper procedure — some of these shouting matches were as early as February, two months before the blow out — we can see the possibility here of a “planned from the top’ environmental catastrophe. Could this be to usher in the IPCC agenda, namely a world carbon tax to be paid by everyone to a world body?

My question if this be the case is, how is taxing carbon emissions from a carbon based life form, we the people, going to offset the obvious foot-dragging by British Petroleum, and the unconstitutional blocking of the States by the federal government from engaging in skimming, and other tested techniques to clean up their coastal waters and shorelines? I will leave you with this:

“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed — and hence clamorous to be led to safety — by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.” –H. L. Mencken


JTCoyoté

“No man survives when freedom fails,
The best men rot in filthy jails,
And those who cry ‘appease, appease’
Are hanged by those they tried to please.”

-- Lt Col. Hiram Mann, a member of
the Tuskegee Airmen (1921-2014)
: April WTI Crude Futures Plunge To $46 Handle As Contango Soars
: Letsbereal March 12, 2015, 04:40:36 PM
April WTI Crude Futures Plunge To $46 Handle As Contango Soars
12 March 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-12/april-wti-crude-futures-plunge-46-handle-contango-soars

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/03/20150312_WTI_1_0.jpg)


Brent crude $57.15 and U.S. crude $47.02 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $57.09 and U.S. crude $47.01 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $57.04 and U.S. crude $46.98 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $56.50 and U.S. crude $46.88 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $56.50 and U.S. crude $46.08 A Barrel Now
: Can Canada's oil sands cope with $50 crude?
: Letsbereal March 13, 2015, 03:01:59 PM
Can Canada's oil sands cope with $50 crude? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_YFFL3o-vw
Mar 13, 2015 Financial Times


Energy Dept. plans up to 5-million-barrel oil buy
13 March 2015
, by MyraP. Saefong - San Francisco (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/energy-dept-plans-up-to-5-million-barrel-oil-purchase-2015-03-13


Brent crude $54.93 and U.S. crude $44.98 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $54.67 and U.S. crude $44.84 A Barrel Now
: From Bubble-Blower To Energy Expert, Greenspan Warns "Oil Hasn't Bottomed Yet"
: Letsbereal March 14, 2015, 02:55:24 PM
From Bubble-Blower To Energy Expert, Alan Greenspan Warns "Oil Hasn't Bottomed Yet"
14 March 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-14/bubble-blower-energy-expert-alan-greenspan-warns-oil-hasnt-bottomed-yet

Greenspan: "we'll be lucky if we can get $40 for it."


Brent crude $54.67 and U.S. crude $44.84 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: North America Crude Oil Production Remains Strong
: Letsbereal March 15, 2015, 09:07:51 AM
North America Crude Oil Production Remains Strong
15 March 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-15/north-america-crude-oil-production-remains-strong

Monthly Average of Weekly Railcar Loads, Petroleum and Petroleum Products, US: Jan12 – Jan15 (in 000’s)

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2015/03/et%201_0.jpg)

Monthly Average of Weekly Railcar Loads, Petroleum and Petroleum Products, Canada: Jan12 – Jan15 (in 000’s)

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2015/03/et%202_0.jpg)

Can Canada’s oil sands cope with $50 crude?, Mar 13, 2015 Financial Times https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_YFFL3o-vw
: Trader who called oil’s rout sees crude below $40
: Letsbereal March 15, 2015, 09:40:36 AM
Trader who called oil’s rout sees crude below $40
13 March 2015
, by William Watts - New York (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/capitulation-could-take-crude-below-40-says-successful-oil-bear-2015-03-13

Don’t look for a V-shaped bottom: Doug King
: WTI Tumbles To $43 Handle At Open
: Letsbereal March 15, 2015, 06:51:44 PM
WTI Tumbles To $43 Handle At Open
15 March 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-15/wti-tumbles-43-handle-open

Oil Slumps to Six-Year Low as U.S. Production Seen Filling Tanks
15 March 2015
, by Grant Smith and Moming Zhou (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-15/oil-slumps-near-6-year-low-as-u-s-supply-seen-filling-tanks


Brent crude $53.65 and U.S. crude $44.13 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Re: Brent crude $53.65 and U.S. crude $44.13 A Barrel Now
: larsonstdoc March 16, 2015, 11:38:03 AM


  Right now at $43.17 

  Falling fast again
: Oil Is Getting Slammed Again, and Falling to Its Lowest Level in Years
: Letsbereal March 16, 2015, 12:14:59 PM
Oil Is Getting Slammed Again, and Falling to Its Lowest Level in Years http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-16/oil-is-getting-slammed-again-and-falling-to-its-lowest-level-in-years

Speculators Least Bullish on Oil Since 2013 as Stockpiles Swell http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-16/speculators-least-bullish-on-oil-since-2013-as-stockpiles-swell

Oil Heading to $35 by May Before a Rebound: Bob Iaccino http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-03-16/oil-heading-to-35-by-may-before-a-rebound-bob-iaccino

5 reasons oil may plunge 10% this week http://www.marketwatch.com/story/5-reasons-oil-may-plunge-10-this-week-2015-03-16

Trader who called oil’s rout sees crude below $40 http://www.marketwatch.com/story/capitulation-could-take-crude-below-40-says-successful-oil-bear-2015-03-13

Oil Prices May Have Further to Fall http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-16/fed-data-suggest-oil-prices-may-have-further-to-fall

Saudi Arabia Needs More Oil to Feed Local Refinery Expansion http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-16/saudi-arabia-will-need-more-oil-to-feed-local-refinery-expansion


Brent crude $52.92 and U.S. crude $43.40 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $52.97 and U.S. crude $43.22 A Barrel Now
: Oil sticks to 6-year low, set for 6th straight loss
: Letsbereal March 17, 2015, 12:55:30 PM
WTI Slumps To New Cycle Lows As Iran Supply Fears Loom
17 March 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-17/wti-slumps-new-cycle-lows-iran-supply-fears-loom

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/03/20150318_wti1_0.jpg)

Oil sticks to 6-year low, set for 6th straight loss
17 March 2015
, by MyraP. Saefong & Mark DeCambre (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-oil-prices-under-pressure-after-hitting-six-year-low-2015-03-17-31031510

Oil Is Tumbling Again
17 March 2015
, by Dashiell Bennett (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-17/oil-is-tumbling-again


Brent crude $53.44 and U.S. crude $43.54 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: WTI Plunges To $42 Handle On Massive API Inventory Build
: Letsbereal March 17, 2015, 05:19:48 PM
WTI Plunges To $42 Handle On Massive API Inventory Build
17 March 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-17/wti-plunges-42-handle-massive-api-inventory-build

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/03/20150318_API_0.jpg)

This big U.S. fracker is most likely to keep the oil flowing
17 March 2015
, by Philip van Doorn (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-big-us-fracker-is-most-likely-to-keep-the-oil-flowing-2015-03-17

Eoin Treacy: Oil Prices Likely to Stabilize in the $35 - $40 Range https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bzN-ShruIQk
Mar 17, 2015 Financial Sense


Brent crude $53.44 and U.S. crude $42.67 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $53.44 and U.S. crude $42.43 A Barrel Now
: Oil Is Falling Again
: Letsbereal March 18, 2015, 07:20:12 AM
Oil Is Falling Again
18 March 2015
, by Dashiell Bennett (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-18/oil-is-falling-again


Brent crude $53.44 and U.S. crude $42.18 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: WTI Nears $41 Handle After Saudi Comments
: Letsbereal March 18, 2015, 10:32:52 AM
WTI Nears $41 Handle After Saudi Comments
18 March 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-18/wti-nears-41-handle-after-saudi-comments

WTI Slumps As Cushing Inventory & Production Hit New Record High
18 March 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-18/wti-slumps-cushing-inventory-production-hit-new-record-high

Oil Resumes Slump as U.S. Crude Inventories Surge
18 March 2015
,  by Mark Shenk (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-18/oil-holds-rebound-from-6-year-low-after-fed-cuts-rate-outlook

U.S. Oil Supply Growth at Record Pace Seen Pressuring Prices
18 March 2015
,  by Mark Shenk (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-18/cushing-crude-inventories-surge-to-record-amid-u-s-shale-boom

U.S. Oil Inventory Expands Faster Than Expected - We're running out of room for all this oil
18 March 2015
, by Tom Randall (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-18/u-s-oil-storage-glut-expands-faster-than-expected

America's oil in storage just hit a new record after surging for the 10th consecutive week.


Brent crude $53.44 and U.S. crude $42.16 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Brent crude $56.31 and U.S. crude $44.69 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal March 18, 2015, 04:53:48 PM
Brent crude $56.55 and U.S. crude $45.03 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $56.31 and U.S. crude $44.69 A Barrel Now
: Kuwait "Over-Supply" Concerns Send WTI Tumbling Back To $42 Handle
: Letsbereal March 19, 2015, 05:27:17 AM
Kuwait "Over-Supply" Concerns Send WTI Tumbling Back To $42 Handle
19 March 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-19/kuwait-over-supply-concerns-send-wti-tumbling-back-42-handle

Iran Could Add Million More Barrels a Day to the Oil Glut
19 March 2015
, by Anthony Dipaola, Grant Smith and Indira Lakshmanan (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-19/iran-can-add-million-barrels-of-oil-fast-but-needs-help-for-more

Canadian Refiners Set to Buy More U.S. Oil With Wider Discount
19 March 2015
, by Robert Tuttle (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-18/canadian-refiners-set-to-buy-more-u-s-oil-with-wider-discount

This big U.S. fracker is most likely to keep the oil flowing
19 March 2015
, by Philipvan Doorn (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-big-us-fracker-is-most-likely-to-keep-the-oil-flowing-2015-03-17

Oil Refineries Just Weeks Away Shut Downs: Edward Morse http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-03-19/oil-refineries-just-weeks-away-shut-downs-edward-morse
March 19, 2015


Brent crude $55.16 and U.S. crude $43.22 A Barrel Nowhttp://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $55.31 and U.S. crude $43.14 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $54.42 and U.S. crude $43.12 A Barrel Now
: Brent crude $55.24 and U.S. crude $45.60 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal March 20, 2015, 10:23:10 AM
Oil, S&P Futures Soar As Quad Witch Volatility Arrives
20 March 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-20/quad-witch-volatility-arrives-sp-futures-oil-surge

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2015/03/WTI_1_0.jpg)


In a mad post-Fed world, oil could be heading to $40 again
20 March 2015
, by Barbara Kollmeyer (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/in-a-mad-post-fed-world-oil-could-head-to-40-again-2015-03-20


Brent crude $55.24 and U.S. crude $45.60 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Here's the Next Biggest Threat to Global Crude Oil Prices
: Letsbereal March 21, 2015, 12:17:10 PM
Here's the Next Biggest Threat to Global Crude Oil Prices
20 March 2015
, by Jake Rudnitsky (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-20/russian-teapots-pose-next-big-threat-to-global-crude-oil-prices

Excerpt:

The next big threat to oil prices isn’t from OPEC or Bakken shale. It’s Russian samovars, or teapots.

Simple refineries that process crude into fuel oil are scaling back, because when oil prices slump, the government reduces the discount that these refiners -- known as teapots to those in the industry -- get for exporting fuel.

They use less crude, freeing it up for sale abroad, which in turn adds to the global glut.

Russia may increase oil exports by as much as 250,000 barrels a day this year, according to James Henderson, a senior research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies who’s followed the country’s energy industry for more than 20 years.

That would equate to 5% growth in shipments, the most in at least a decade.

“The pain Russia is feeling from low oil prices has made more crude available for export,” Henderson said by phone March 18.

“Quite a few of Russia’s simple refineries could reduce their runs.”

Rising shipments from Russia, which ranks with Saudi Arabia and the U.S. as the world’s biggest oil producers, would put more pressure on crude, already down more than 50% from last year.

Falling energy prices and U.S. and European Union sanctions imposed last year in response to the Ukraine crisis have pushed Russia to the brink of recession, damping demand for refined fuel products in the country.


The Perfect Storm For Oil Hits In Two Months: US Crude Production To Soar Just As Storage Runs Out
21 March 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-21/perfect-storm-oil-hits-two-months-us-crude-production-soar-just-storage-runs-out


Brent crude $55.32 and U.S. crude $45.72 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Return to $100 Oil Seen Unlikely by Saudis Amid Shale Surge
: Letsbereal March 22, 2015, 04:30:39 PM
Return to $100 Oil Seen Unlikely by Saudis Amid Shale Surge
22 March 2015
, by Wael Mahdi (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-22/-100-oil-seen-tough-to-reach-again-as-shale-drillers-bounce-back

Excerpt:

Oil prices won’t rebound to $100 a barrel because increased prices would draw more shale and other output from higher-cost producers to the market, said Mohammed al-Madi, Saudi Arabia’s governor to OPEC.

“I think it will be difficult to reach $100 or $120 another time,” al-Madi said at a conference in Riyadh on Sunday.

“This will let the high-cost producers come back again.” Saudi Arabia, the nation leading OPEC in defending its share of the global oil market, will keep investing to maintain its current output capacity, he said.

Brent oil, the global benchmark, declined almost 50% in the past year as Saudi Arabia and others in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries committed to maintain output amid a global surplus.

U.S. output is the highest in three decades as drillers pump crude from shale.

“Shale oil companies are one of the high-cost producers that benefited from high oil prices,” al-Madi said.

“We’re not against shale oil. We welcomed shale oil but it’s not fair for high-cost producers to push low-cost producers out of the market.”

OPEC’s role in the oil market hasn’t been undermined by the drop in prices since its Nov. 27 meeting in Vienna when it chose market share over production cuts, al-Madi said.
: Pump Prices in U.S. Fall as Ample Crude Supply Drives Down Costs
: Letsbereal March 22, 2015, 04:32:30 PM
Pump Prices in U.S. Fall as Ample Crude Supply Drives Down Costs
22 March 2015
, by Jessica Summers and Dan Murtaugh (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-22/pump-prices-in-u-s-fall-as-ample-crude-supply-drives-down-costs

Retail gasoline prices fell in the Lundberg Survey as crude oil dropped to the lowest price in six years.

The average price for regular gasoline at U.S. pumps declined 3.93 cents in the past two weeks to $2.4991 a gallon, according to Lundberg Survey Inc.

The survey covers the period ended March 20 and is based on information obtained at about 2,500 filling stations by the Camarillo, California-based company.


Pump Prices in U.S. Slide as Crude Oil Falls to Six-Year Low
22 March 2015
, by Jessica Summers and Dan Murtaugh (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-22/u-s-gasoline-falls-to-2-4991-a-gallon-in-lundberg-survey
: Crude oil prices heading to $35 by June
: Letsbereal March 23, 2015, 10:04:45 AM
Crude oil prices heading to $35 by June: FGE
23 March 2015
, by M Rochan (International Business Times)
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/crude-oil-prices-heading-35-by-june-fge-1493095

Global crude oil prices could trade between $35 to $40 a barrel by the end of the second-quarter of 2015, according to one of the world's leading oil experts.

Saudi Production Comments Send WTI Sliding To $45 Handle
23 March 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-23/saudi-production-comments-send-wti-sliding-45-handle

Oil-sands production will still rise to 2.3 million barrels a day because of prior investments, according to the industry group’s forecast.

FROM: Today’s Rout Is a Far Cry From Wildcat Years for Oil Sands
23 March 2015
, by Jeremy Van Loon and Rebecca Penty (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-23/oil-sands-tested-as-today-s-rout-is-far-cry-from-wildcat-years

Too Much Oil in Market for Prices to Climb: Bob Iaccino http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-03-23/too-much-oil-in-market-for-prices-to-climb-bob-iaccino
March 23, 2015, Bloomberg

New Fracking Rules Hit Oil Drillers as Output Peaks http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-03-23/new-fracking-rules-hit-oil-drillers-as-output-peaks
March 23, 2015, Bloomberg


Brent crude $55.52 and U.S. crude $46.49 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: WTF WTI Moment Of The Day: Crude Surges Over $47.50 On Ubiquitous NYMEX Close
: Letsbereal March 23, 2015, 03:38:48 PM
WTF WTI Moment Of The Day: Crude Surges Over $47.50 On Ubiquitous NYMEX Close Melt-Up
23 March 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-23/wtf-wti-moment-day-crude-surges-over-4750-ubiquitous-nymex-close-melt

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/03-overflow/20150323_oil1_0.jpg) (http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/03-overflow/20150323_oil1.jpg)


Brent crude $55.91 and U.S. crude $47.32 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $55.75 and U.S. crude $47.21 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $55.52 and U.S. crude $46.85 A Barrel Now
: Asia Readies for Iran Oil Bargains on Potential Nuclear Deal
: Letsbereal March 24, 2015, 08:58:06 AM
API Signals Fastest Inventory Build In At Least 34 Years
24 March 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-24/api-signals-fastest-inventory-build-least-34-years-cushing-drawdown-sends-wti-higher

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/03-overflow/20150324_API1_0.jpg)

Asia Readies for Iran Oil Bargains on Potential Nuclear Deal
23 March 2015
, by Sharon ChoDebjit Chakraborty and Yuji Okada (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-23/asia-readies-for-iranian-oil-bargains-on-potential-nuclear-deal

Asian oil buyers taking their pick of supply from Iraq to Mexico amid a global glut are preparing for the pool of potential bargains to expand if Iran boosts exports.


Here's How $20 Oil Could Become a Reality If Storage Runs Out - The looming storage crisis explained
24 March 2015
, by Tom Randall (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-24/here-s-how-20-oil-could-become-a-reality-if-storage-runs-out


So who’s pumping dumping oil? - Answer the algo-bots.

Somebody is making a load of money on those pumping and dumping algo's every day in oil.


More Evidence of the Master Trading Algorithm http://www.bullionbullscanada.com/us-commentary/26606-more-evidence-of-the-master-trading-algorithm


Brent crude $56.04 and U.S. crude $47.98 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $55.50 and U.S. crude $47.49 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $55.16 and U.S. crude $47.25 A Barrel Now
: Contango Tumbles To 2-Month Lows As WTI Crude Melts Up Above $49
: Letsbereal March 25, 2015, 04:34:05 PM
Contango Tumbles To 2-Month Lows As WTI Crude Melts Up Above $49
25 March 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-25/contango-tumbles-2-month-lows-wti-crude-melts-above-49

WTI Ignores Large EIA Crude Build, Gains on Dollar
25 March 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-25/wti-ignores-large-eia-crude-build-gains-dollar

WTI Tumbles After Crude Inventories Rise For 11th Straight Week - Longest Streak On Record
25 March 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-25/wti-tumbles-after-crude-inventories-rise-11th-straight-week-longest-streak-record

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/03-overflow/20150325_inv2.jpg)


Brent crude $56.26 and U.S. crude $48.96 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Futures Tumble As Yemen War Starts; Oil, Gold Surges
: Letsbereal March 26, 2015, 12:40:07 PM
Futures Tumble As Yemen War Starts; Oil, Gold Surges
26 March 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-26/futures-tumble-yemen-war-starts-oil-surges

Three Triggers That Will Send Oil Crashing Again
26 March 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-26/three-triggers-will-send-oil-crashing-again


Brent crude $58.82 and U.S. crude $50.86 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $58.48 and U.S. crude $50.53 A Barrel Now
: Yemen "Gulf Intervention" Premium Erased, WTI Tumbles Back Below $49
: Letsbereal March 27, 2015, 02:47:39 PM
Yemen "Gulf Intervention" Premium Erased, WTI Tumbles Back Below $49
27 March 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-27/yemen-gulf-intervention-premium-erased-wti-tumbles-back-below-49

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/03-overflow/20150327_WTI1_0.jpg)


Brent crude $57.00 and U.S. crude $49.64 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Brent crude $56.41 and U.S. crude $48.87 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal March 27, 2015, 07:23:27 PM
Brent crude $56.41 and U.S. crude $48.87 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: When In Need Of Humor, NYMEX Close Delivers
: Letsbereal March 30, 2015, 03:07:17 PM
WTI Tumbles To $47 Handle; Energy Stocks Don't Care At All
30 March 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-30/wti-tumbles-47-handle-energy-stocks-dont-care-all


When In Need Of Humor, NYMEX Close Delivers
30 March 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-30/when-need-humor-nymex-close-delivers

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/03-overflow/20150330_WTIWTF_0.jpg) (http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/03-overflow/20150330_WTIWTF.jpg)

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/03-overflow/20150330_WTIWTF1_0.jpg) (http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/03-overflow/20150330_WTIWTF1.jpg)


Brent crude $56.17 and U.S. crude $48.65 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $55.94 and U.S. crude $48.40 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $55.82 and U.S. crude $48.27 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $55.94 and U.S. crude $48.13 A Barrel Now
: Asian Markets Mixed: China Jump, Oil’s Stumble Graph, Japan Slump
: Letsbereal March 30, 2015, 11:27:14 PM
Asian Markets Mixed: China Jump, Crude Dump, Japan Slump
30 March 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-30/asian-markets-mixed-china-jump-crude-dump-japan-slump

Oil’s Stumble Graph:

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/03-overflow/20150330_asia1_0.jpg) (http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/03-overflow/20150330_asia1.jpg)


Yeah, oil just took bit of a stumble after been ramped up before.

So did Obama …
OBAMA TAKES A STUMBLE - Obama Almost Falls Down the Steps from Air Force One ;) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UrmhDkF0O24

Oil is like Stumble & Stumbler ... bots bring it up after which the market takes oil lower again and then the bots arrive again ...

Brent crude $55.88 and U.S. crude $48.07 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: U.S. Crude Trading 0n $47 Handle at $47.97 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal March 31, 2015, 12:27:59 AM
Brent crude $55.74 and U.S. crude $47.97 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $55.23 and U.S. crude $47.72 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $55.07 and U.S. crude $47.63 A Barrel Now
: Oil is stumbling today again!
: Letsbereal March 31, 2015, 05:00:26 PM
Oil Jumps As Houthis Enter El-Mandeb Strait Military Base
31 March 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-31/oil-jumps-houthis-enter-el-mandeb-strait-military-base

Crude Pops On "No Nuke Deal", Then Pump'n'Dumps On Bigger Than Expected Inventory Build
31 March 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-31/crude-pops-no-nuke-deal-then-surges-bigger-expected-inventory-build

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/03-overflow/20150331_bild.jpg)


So oil is stumbling today again! ;) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UrmhDkF0O24

Brent crude $55.22 and U.S. crude $47.58 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $55.02 and U.S. crude $47.34 A Barrel Now
: Brent crude $55.10 and U.S. crude $49.42 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal April 02, 2015, 05:01:34 PM
Crude just whipped around all day on Iran headlines...
2 April 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-02/stocks-jump-crudes-deal-or-no-deal-day-sparks-dollar-dump

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/04/20150402_EOD1_0.jpg) (http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/04/20150402_EOD1.jpg)


Brent crude $55.10 and U.S. crude $49.42 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $54.95 and U.S. crude $49.14 A Barrel Now
: What If An Oil Rebound Never Comes?
: Letsbereal April 03, 2015, 10:48:09 AM
What If An Oil Rebound Never Comes?
3 April 2015
, by Nick Cunningham (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-03/what-if-oil-rebound-never-comes

Oil prices will remain subdued for the next 20 years.


Ahoy! Oil Tankers Form Four-Mile Line In Persian Gulf As Iran Talks Stoke Supply Glut Fears
3 April 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-03/ahoy-oil-tankers-form-four-mile-line-persian-gulf-iran-talks-stoke-supply-glut-fears


Brent crude $54.95 and U.S. crude $49.14 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: API oil inventories rise sharply: reports
: Letsbereal April 07, 2015, 06:09:05 PM
API oil inventories rise sharply: reports
7 April 2015
, New York (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/api-oil-inventories-rise-sharply-reports-2015-04-07

Oil prices to stay lower for longer, says Goldman Sachs
7 April 2015
, by Sara Sjolin - London (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-to-stay-lower-for-longer-says-goldman-sachs-2015-04-07

The U.S. oil boom is moving to a level not seen in 45 years
6 April 2015
, by Myra P. Saefong - San Francisco (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-us-oil-boom-is-moving-to-a-level-not-seen-in-45-years-2015-04-03


Brent crude $58.54 and U.S. crude $53.25 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Crude Tumbles After API Reports Largest Inventory Build In 30 Years
: Letsbereal April 07, 2015, 08:11:06 PM
Crude Tumbles After API Reports Largest Inventory Build In 30 Years
7 April 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-07/crude-tumbles-after-api-reports-largest-inventory-build-30-years


Brent crude $59.10 and U.S. crude $52.89 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Oil Is Diving After the Biggest Inventory Build in 14 Years
: Letsbereal April 08, 2015, 11:58:43 AM
Oil Is Diving After the Biggest Inventory Build in 14 Years - Three times more than estimates
8 April 2015
, by Tom Randall (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-08/oil-is-diving-after-the-biggest-inventory-build-in-14-years

Oil Futures Retreat as Stockpile Gain Adds to Record Surplus
8 April 2015
, by Moming Zhou and Mark Shenk (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-07/oil-pares-biggest-rally-in-2-months-as-stockpiles-seen-expanding

Cushing Storage Around 90% Full As Inventories Surge Most In 14 Years, Crude Plunges
8 April 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-08/cushing-storage-around-90-full-inventories-surge-most-14-years-crude-slides

Saudi pumps up oil production to record high 10.3 million bpd
8 April 2015
, Riyad (Reuters)
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/04/07/saudi-oil-record-idUKL2N0X426Q20150407


Brent crude $56.94 and U.S. crude $51.68 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $56.42 and U.S. crude $50.88 A Barrel Now
: "Saudi Arabia Is Going For it" - Why The Saudis Just Boosted Oil Production
: Letsbereal April 09, 2015, 04:37:44 PM
"Saudi Arabia Is Going For it" - Why The Saudis Just Boosted Oil Production To A Record High
9 April 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-09/saudi-arabia-going-it-why-saudis-just-boosted-oil-production-record-high

Here’s how Iran could prevent a rebound in oil prices
9 April 2015
, by William Watts - New York (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-how-iran-could-prevent-a-rebound-in-oil-prices-2015-04-09


Brent crude $56.64 and U.S. crude $50.54 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: How Much Longer Can OPEC Hold Out?
: Letsbereal April 11, 2015, 01:40:51 PM
How Much Longer Can OPEC Hold Out?
10 April 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-10/how-much-longer-can-opec-hold-out


Brent crude $57.87 and U.S. crude $51.64 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: How Should Oil Markets Price in the Iran Factor?
: Letsbereal April 13, 2015, 12:38:40 PM
IEA sees sharp rise in Iran oil output in 3-5 years post nuclear deal
12 April 2015
, by Nidhi Verma - New Delhi (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/12/us-iran-oil-iea-idUSKBN0N30RD20150412

How Should Oil Markets Price in the Iran Factor? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=brAMhGoPnTk
Apr 13, 2015 Tip TV Finance

What's Really Behind The U.S Crude Oil Build
13 April 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-13/whats-really-behind-us-crude-oil-build

The "Crude" Reality Of Oil Storage Capacity In Six Easy Charts
13 April 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-13/crude-reality-oil-storage-capacity-six-easy-charts


Brent crude $57.68 and U.S. crude $51.58 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Crude Dips After EIA Forecasts Increased Oil Production For A Decade
: Letsbereal April 14, 2015, 02:39:01 PM
Crude Dips After EIA Forecasts Increased Oil Production For A Decade
14 April 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-14/crude-dips-after-eia-forecasts-increased-oil-production-decade

Bakken Shale Oil Well Output Drops To Lowest Since 2009
14 April 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-14/bakken-shale-oil-well-output-drops-lowest-2009

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2015/04/Oil%20Well%20productivity%20vs%20total%20output_0.jpg)

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/04/20150408_crude4_0.jpg)

Crude Pops After Smaller-Than-Expected API Inventory Build, Cushing Capacity Concerns Remain
14 April 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-14/crude-pops-after-smaller-expected-api-inventory-build-cushing-capacity-concerns-rema

China goes on another oil-buying spree
14 April 2015
, by Eric Yep - Singapore (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-goes-on-another-oil-buying-spree-2015-04-14

Crude Oil - Chris Vermeulen - April 14, 2015 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UmHO3rCbiI0
Apr 14, 2015 Talk Digital Network


Brent crude $58.89 and U.S. crude $53.53 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $58.51 and U.S. crude $53.19 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $58.43 and U.S. crude $53.51 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $58.43 and U.S. crude $53.42 A Barrel Now
: Saudi Arabia Leads OPEC Oil Boom as U.S. Shale Growth Slows
: Letsbereal April 15, 2015, 09:06:30 AM
Saudi Arabia Leads OPEC Oil Boom as U.S. Shale Growth Slows
15 April 2015
, by Grant Smith (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-15/iea-sees-opec-supply-jumping-most-in-four-years-on-saudi-surge

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries may extend its biggest output gain since June 2011 into next month as recovery in Libya and Iraq adds to the Saudi increase, the IEA said.

WTI Spikes Above $55 After Crude Inventories Rise At Slowest Pace In 14 Weeks
15 April 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-15/wti-spikes-after-crude-inventories-rise-slowest-pace-14-weeks

Oil Production Jumps in March Even as U.S. Drilling Collapses
15 April 2015
, by Rich Miller (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-15/oil-production-jumps-in-march-even-as-u-s-drilling-collapses

U.S. crude oil output to soar till 2020 despite price rout: EIA
14 April 2015
, New York (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/15/us-usa-oil-outlook-idUSKBN0N51YD20150415


Brent crude $59.19 and U.S. crude $54.98 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $59.25 and U.S. crude $54.22 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $59.80 and U.S. crude $55.71 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $59.77 and U.S. crude $56.03 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $60.32 and U.S. crude $55.86 A Barrel Now
: Saudi Oil Production Hits All Time High, Surges By 'Half A Bakken'
: Letsbereal April 16, 2015, 11:47:05 AM
Saudi Oil Production Hits All Time High, Surges By 'Half A Bakken'
16 April 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-16/crude-slides-after-saudi-production-surges-half-bakken

Saudi Arabia Adds Half a Bakken to Oil Market in a Month
16 April 2015
, by Grant Smith (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-16/saudi-arabia-adds-half-a-bakken-to-global-oil-market-in-a-month

BP CEO warns oil could stay low for few years
16 April 2015
, by Sarah Kent - London (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bp-ceo-warns-oil-could-stay-low-for-few-years-2015-04-16

Dollar Dump Sends Oil, Bonds & Stocks Surging
16 April 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-16/dollar-dump-sends-oil-bonds-stocks-surging


Brent crude $62.84 and U.S. crude $55.42 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $63.81 and U.S. crude $56.61 A Barrel Now
: Brent crude $63.45 and U.S. crude $55.74 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal April 17, 2015, 11:57:07 PM
Brent crude $63.45 and U.S. crude $55.74 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Re: Brent crude $63.45 and U.S. crude $55.74 A Barrel Now
: larsonstdoc April 19, 2015, 01:43:24 AM
Brent crude $63.45 and U.S. crude $55.74 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/

  Well we are inching up to 60.
: Brent crude $63.89 and U.S. crude $56.61 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal April 20, 2015, 10:48:08 AM
Oil Slips On Saudi Record Production Promise, Specs Pile In But Blackstone Skeptical
20 April 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-20/oil-slips-saudi-record-production-promise-specs-pile-blackstone-skeptical

Energy firms have managed to raise a record amount of money in the last quarter...

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/04/20150419_WTI1_0.jpg)

Investors Who See ‘Froth’ in Market Go All In for Oil
20 April 2015
, by Bradley Olson, Matthew Monks and Dawn Kopecki (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-20/investors-who-see-froth-in-market-go-all-in-for-oil

Think Oil’s Going Up? Then You’re Better Off Not Buying
20 April 2015
, by Ben Sharples (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-20/think-oil-s-going-up-then-you-re-better-off-not-buying

Shale as World’s Swing Producer Signals ‘Jagged’ Oil Future
20 April 2015
, by Lynn DoanDan Murtaugh (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-20/shale-as-world-s-swing-producer-signals-jagged-future-for-oil


Crude Oil Climbs on Speculation U.S. Inventory Growth Slowing
20 April 2015
, by Moming Zhou (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-19/hedge-funds-turn-most-bullish-on-oil-in-8-months-as-output-slows

Hedge Funds Turn Most Bullish on Oil in 8 Months as Output Slows
20 April 2015
, by Moming Zhou (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-19/hedge-funds-turn-most-bullish-on-oil-in-8-months-as-output-slows

US Equity Open Sparks Panic Buying In Crude & Stocks
20 April 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-20/us-equity-open-sparks-panic-buying-crude-stocks

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/04/20150419_crude_0.jpg) (http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/04/20150419_crude.jpg)


Brent crude $63.89 and U.S. crude $56.61 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $63.39 and U.S. crude $56.32 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $62.96 and U.S. crude $56.20 A Barrel Now
: Oil Drops After API Inventories Show Builds Accelerating Again
: Letsbereal April 21, 2015, 06:21:53 PM
Oil Drops After API Inventories Show Builds Accelerating Again
21 April 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-21/oil-drops-after-api-inventories-show-builds-accelerating-again

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/04/20150421_api2_0.jpg)


Oil Tumbles After Saudis Declare End To Yemen Aerial Bombing Campaign
21 April 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-21/oil-tumbles-after-saudis-declare-end-yemen-aerial-bombing-campaign


Brent crude $61.87 and U.S. crude $56.61 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $62.08 and U.S. crude $56.36 A Barrel Now
: Who Is Saudi Arabia Really Targeting In Its Price War?
: Letsbereal April 21, 2015, 09:52:11 PM
Who Is Saudi Arabia Really Targeting In Its Price War?
21 April 2015
, by Arthur Berman (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-21/who-saudi-arabia-really-targeting-its-price-war

Excerpt TXT:

Record Saudi Oil

Saudi Arabia is not trying to crush U.S. shale plays. Its oil-price war is with the investment banks and the stupid money they directed to fund the plays.

It is also with the zero-interest rate economic conditions that made this possible.
Saudi Arabia intends to keep oil prices low for as long as possible.

Its oil production increased to 10.3 million barrels per day in March 2015.

That is 700,000 barrels per day more than in December 2014 and the highest level since the Joint Organizations Data Initiative began compiling production data in 2002.

And Saudi Arabia’s rig count has never been higher.

Market Share

Market share is an important part of the motive but Saudi Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources Ali al-Naimi recently emphasized that “The challenge is to restore the supply-demand balance and reach price stability.”

Saudi Arabia’s need for market share and long-term demand is best met with a growing global economy and lower oil prices.

That means ending the over-production from tight oil and other expensive plays (oil sands and ultra-deep water) and reviving global demand by keeping oil prices low for some extended period of time.

Demand has been weak since the run-up in debt and oil prices that culminated in the Financial Collapse of 2008.

Increasing Debt

Since 2008, the U.S. Federal Reserve Board and the central banks of other countries have further increased debt, devalued their currencies and kept interest rates at the lowest sustained levels ever .

These measures have not resulted in economic recovery and have helped produce the highest sustained oil prices in history.

They also led to investments that are not particularly productive but promise higher yields that can be found otherwise in a zero-interest rate world.

Quest for Yield

The quest for yield led investment banks to direct capital to U.S. E&P companies to fund tight oil plays.

Capital flowed in unprecedented volumes with no performance expectation other than payment of the coupon attached to that investment.This is stupid money.

These capital providers are indifferent to the fundamentals of the companies they invest in or in the profitability of the plays. All that matters is yield.

Negative Cash Flow

The financial performance of most companies involved in tight oil plays has been characterized by chronic negative cash flow and ever-increasing debt.

Some rationalize the negative free cash flow as an expansion of capital base that will result in future profits.

Over the past 4 years, tight oil negative cash flow increased and has reached a cumulative of more than -$21 billion for the representative companies.

Almost half of that negative cash flow took place in 2014.

Oil Price

The average U.S. oil price from January 2011 through year-end 2014 was $95 per barrel.

First quarter 2015 performance at $48.50 WTI will be a disaster that makes the previous 4 years look good.

How long do the losses continue before the cheerleaders of shale plays admit that the enterprise is not profitable?

Only the more diversified integrated companies like ConocoPhillips, Marathon, and OXY show meaningful long-term positive cash flow.

Break-Even

If companies could not show positive cash flow at $95 per barrel, what price is necessary and what will that do to the world economy?

Some of my readers dispute the poor economics of these plays based on incorrect notions of break-even profitability–some believe that tight oil plays are profitable at $35 per barrel oil prices.

Mr. Kibsgaard shows that the average break-even price for tight oil plays is about $75 per barrel. By comparison, Middle East OPEC break-even prices are less than $10 per barrel.

Other conventional oil plays break even at less than $20 per barrel.

Many Wells

For nearly equal oil-production volumes of about 11 million barrels per day, U.S. oil producers drilled more than 35,000 wells and 297 million feet of hole compared to 399 wells and 3 million feet of hole for Saudi Arabia.

U.S. companies drilled almost 100 times more wells to reach the same daily production as Saudi Aramco.

Strident claims of increased efficiency by tight oil producers sound absurd in this context.

Bottom Line

Prolonged low oil prices will prove that tight oil plays need at least $75 per barrel to break even.

When oil prices recover to that level, only the best parts of the tight oil core areas will be competitive in the global market.

As production declines from expensive tight oil, oil sand and ultra-deep-water plays, inexpensive Saudi oil will gain market share.

Saudi Arabia is not trying to crush tight oil plays, just the stupid money that funded the over-production of tight oil.

Too much supply combined with weak demand created the present oil-price collapse.

Saudi Arabia hopes to prolong low prices to benefit their long-term needs for market share and higher demand.


Brent crude $61.58 and U.S. crude $56.07 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Crude Inventories Rise For Record 15th Straight Week, Production Drops
: Letsbereal April 22, 2015, 07:20:10 PM
Crude Inventories Rise For Record 15th Straight Week, Production Drops
22 April 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-22/crude-inventories-rise-record-15th-straight-week-build-greater-expected

Oil Companies Are Getting a Second Chance in the Bond Market
22 April 2015
, by Sridhar Natarajan, Cordell Eddings and Asjylyn Loder (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-21/oil-firms-find-debt-reprieve-in-u-s-as-buyers-binge-on-bargains

Energy companies desperate to head off a potential funding squeeze are getting a second chance in the bond market, allowing them to keep drilling as they seek to weather the oil-price slump.


Brent crude $62.73 and U.S. crude $56.27 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $62.67 and U.S. crude $56.16 A Barrel Now
: Oil Prices Won't Recover Anytime Soon Says Exxon CEO
: Letsbereal April 23, 2015, 02:25:04 PM
Oil Prices Won't Recover Anytime Soon Says Exxon CEO
23 April 2015
, by Nick Cunningham (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-23/oil-prices-wont-recover-anytime-soon-says-exxon-ceo

U.S. Shale Fracklog Triples as Drillers Keep Oil From Market
23 April 2015
, by Lynn Doan and Dan Murtaugh (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-23/u-s-shale-fracklog-triples-as-drillers-keep-oil-out-of-market-i8u004xl


WTI Crude Surges Towards $58 - Completes "Manic Wtf" Pattern
23 April 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-23/wti-crude-surges-towards-58-completes-manic-wtf-pattern

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/04-overflow/20150423_W_0.jpg)


Brent crude $64.76 and U.S. crude $57.84 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $64.86 and U.S. crude $57.97 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $64.85 and U.S. crude $58.01 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $64.75 and U.S. crude $57.46 A Barrel Now
: Crude Drops After US Rig Count Decline Extends To Record 20 Weeks
: Letsbereal April 24, 2015, 08:55:22 PM
Crude Drops After US Rig Count Decline Extends To Record 20 Weeks
24 April 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-24/crude-drops-after-us-rig-count-decline-extends-record-20-weeks

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/04-overflow/20150424_rig_0.jpg)

Oil at $65 Could Free 500,000 Barrels From Shale ’Fracklog’
24 April 2015
, by Lynn Doan and Dan Murtaugh (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-24/oil-at-65-seen-freeing-half-million-barrels-from-shale-fracklog

Saudi Arabia’s Solution to Global Oil Glut: Pump Even More Crude
24 April 2015
, by Grant Smith (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-23/saudi-arabia-s-solution-to-global-oil-glut-pump-ever-more-crude


Brent crude $65.28 and U.S. crude $57.15 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Oil-fund outflows bode ill for prices
: Letsbereal April 27, 2015, 11:50:06 AM
Oil-fund outflows bode ill for prices
27 April 2015
, by Nicole Friedman (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-fund-outflows-bode-ill-for-prices-2015-04-27

Money is pouring out of a popular investment tied to the oil market, a sign that a monthlong crude-price rally may be running out of gas.

Exchange-traded funds that invest in U.S. oil futures, including the $3.1 billion United States Oil Fund LP, have registered about $2.7 billion of investor outflows this month, according to investment bank Macquarie Group Ltd.

That reverses an inflow that started in January as oil prices tumbled. These ETFs took in roughly $6 billion this year through mid-March, when the U.S. oil benchmark hit a six-year low, according to Macquarie.

Traders and analysts are closely watching weekly production and demand data for signs that the global glut of crude oil that sent prices swooning last year may be shrinking.

They are also watching the ETF trends closely, because they say crude prices are vulnerable to a pullback following a 32% run-up since March 17.


Brent crude $64.74 and U.S. crude $57.04 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Brent crude $64.03 and U.S. crude $56.25 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal April 28, 2015, 12:54:16 AM
Crude Slides On Bigger-Than-Expected API Inventory Build (Small Cushing Draw)
28 April 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-28/crude-slides-bigger-expected-api-inventory-build-small-cushing-draw

Debt Pile-Up To Fuel Further Oil Price Pressure
28 April 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-28/debt-pile-fuel-further-oil-price-pressure

Excerpt:

US oil companies have borrowed heavily. They account for around 40% of both syndicated loans and debt securities outstanding.

Much of this debt has been issued by smaller companies, in particular those engaged in shale oil exploration and production.

Indeed, while the ratio of total debt to assets has been broadly unchanged for large US oil firms, it has on average almost doubled for other US producers - including smaller shale oil companies.

These firms borrowed heavily to finance the expansion of production capacity, often against the backdrop of negative operating cash flow.

Indeed, shale investment accounts for a large share of the increase in oil-related investment.

Annual capital expenditure by oil and gas companies has more than doubled in real terms since 2000, to almost $900 billion in 2013 (IEA (2014)).



Brent crude $64.03 and U.S. crude $56.25 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: WTI Crude Surges Above $59 - Highest In Almost 5 Months
: Letsbereal April 29, 2015, 09:41:51 PM
WTI Crude Surges Above $59 - Highest In Almost 5 Months
29 April 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-29/wti-crude-surges-above-59-highest-almost-5-months

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/04-overflow/20150429_oil2_0.jpg)


Brent crude $65.44 and U.S. crude $58.45 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: We Are Witnessing A Fundamental Change In The Oil Sector
: Letsbereal April 30, 2015, 03:31:38 PM
We Are Witnessing A Fundamental Change In The Oil Sector
30 April 2015
, by Arthur Berman (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-30/we-are-witnessing-fundamental-change-oil-sector

The decrease in well completions provides additional evidence that the true break-even price for tight oil plays is between $75 and $85 per barrel.


Brent crude $66.40 and U.S. crude $59.36 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Oil prices roundtripped today from yesterday
: Letsbereal May 01, 2015, 01:46:28 PM
Crude Bounces After Oil Rig Count Decline Slows
1 May 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-01/crude-bounces-after-oil-rig-count-decline-slows

Oil prices have roundtripped today from yesterday's end of month exuberance... and bounced higher on the rig count news...

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/05/20150501_rig3_0.jpg)

Oil falls as Iraqi exports said to be at 30-year high
1 May 2015
, by Myra P. Saefong & Carla Mozee (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-futures-slip-but-stay-on-track-to-add-to-run-of-weekly-wins-2015-05-01

Oil off 2015 highs on record Iraq exports, strong dollar
1 May 2015
, by Robert Gibbons - New York (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/01/us-markets-oil-idUSKBN0NM3GU20150501


Brent crude $65.95 and U.S. crude $58.69 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Brent crude $66.46 and U.S. crude $59.15 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal May 02, 2015, 03:22:35 AM
Key Signals That Oil Prices Are On The Up
1 May 2015
, by Nick Cunningham (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-01/key-signals-oil-prices-are

Oil prices have sort of plateaued after rising from their March lows. The path forward from here, though, is unclear, but the latest data points to a higher prices in the weeks and months ahead.


Oil Bulls Are Losing Money Even as Prices Rise
1 May 2015
, by Isaac Arnsdorf (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-01/oil-bulls-are-losing-money-even-as-prices-rise

Crude Oil Falls From 2015 High as Iraq Boosts Crude Exports
1 May 2015
, by Moming Zhou (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-30/oil-extends-gain-after-monthly-surge-as-u-s-glut-seen-easing


My latest data points to lower prices in the weeks and months ahead: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-01/key-signals-oil-prices-are#comment-6053086

Brent crude $66.46 and U.S. crude $59.15 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Brent crude $66.34 and U.S. crude $58.93 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal May 04, 2015, 06:31:26 PM
Peak Oil Optimism
4 May 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-04/peak-oil-optimism

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/05/20150504_peakoil_0.jpg)

(https://www.tradingfloor.com/images/article/max608w/9d5195d4-ac58-4406-8798-17d9e7218542.png)


Brent crude $66.34 and U.S. crude $58.93 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: WTI Crude Tops $60 (5 Month Highs) After Saudi's "Leave It To Allah" Comments
: Letsbereal May 05, 2015, 08:43:42 AM
WTI Crude Tops $60 (5 Month Highs) After Saudi's "Leave It To Allah" Comments
5 May 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-05/wti-crude-tops-60-5-month-highs

Four Key Catalysts To Watch In The Oil Sector
5 May 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-05/four-key-catalysts-watch-oil-sector

Oil Rises After API Reports First Inventory Draw In 16 Weeks
5 May 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-05/oil-rises-after-api-reports-first-inventory-draw-16-weeks


EOG Will Resume Major Oil Growth at ‘Stable’ $65 Price
5 May 2015
, by Bradley Olson (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-05/eog-resources-will-resume-major-oil-growth-at-stable-65-price

Oil at $65 Could Free 500,000 Barrels From Shale ’Fracklog’
24 April 2015
, by Lynn Doan and Dan Murtaugh (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-24/oil-at-65-seen-freeing-half-million-barrels-from-shale-fracklog


Brent crude $67.41 and U.S. crude $60.08 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $68.04 and U.S. crude $60.67 A Barrel Now
: Crude tops $62 for first time since December
: Letsbereal May 06, 2015, 06:51:36 AM
Crude tops $62 for first time since December
6 May 2015
, by Al Lewis & Sara Sjolin (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crude-rallies-again-with-price-of-wti-atop-61-2015-05-06

Crude Pumps (And Dumps) After DOE Show Biggest Inventory Draw In 8 Months
6 May 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-06/crude-pumps-and-dumps-after-doe-show-biggest-inventory-draw-8-months

Oil in the $30s? It may happen as a ‘short squeeze’ ends
6 May 2015
, by Howard Gold (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-in-the-30s-it-may-happen-as-a-short-squeeze-ends-2015-05-06

Crude has soared 40% from its low this year, but weaker demand and high production might lead to another leg down


Oil's bull run hides a deep disconnect, crude traders warn
6 May 2015
, by Dmitry Zhdannikov, Ron Bousso and Libby George - London (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/06/us-oil-prices-idUSKBN0NR1Q320150506

While oil futures prices rebound with vigor as analysts cite strong demand, the physical crude market tells a much more cautionary tale.


Brent crude $68.99 and U.S. crude $61.86 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $68.70 and U.S. crude $61.51 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $67.87 and U.S. crude $60.71 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $67.51 and U.S. crude $60.62 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $67.21 and U.S. crude $60.35 A Barrel Now
: Oil pumping again
: Letsbereal May 07, 2015, 04:02:51 AM
Brent crude $67.95 and U.S. crude $60.95 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/


Oil pumping again.
: Oil dumping again
: Letsbereal May 07, 2015, 01:53:18 PM
Shale Stocks Slammed As Crude Cracks Back Below $60
7 May 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-07/crude-cracks-back-below-60


Brent crude $65.77 and U.S. crude $59.12 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $65.44 and U.S. crude $58.82 A Barrel Now


Oil dumping again.
: Re: Oil dumping again
: larsonstdoc May 08, 2015, 10:11:54 AM
Shale Stocks Slammed As Crude Cracks Back Below $60
7 May 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-07/crude-cracks-back-below-60


Brent crude $65.77 and U.S. crude $59.12 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $65.44 and U.S. crude $58.82 A Barrel Now


Oil dumping again.

  I read a report the other day that oil had to get to  $66 to $70 for the Bakken to resume some of the operations up there.
: Crude Lifts As Pace Of Rig Count Decline Slows
: Letsbereal May 08, 2015, 04:44:44 PM
Crude Lifts As Pace Of Rig Count Decline Slows
8 May 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-08/crude-lifts-pace-rig-count-decline-slows

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/05/20150508_rig_0.jpg)


Brent crude $65.50 and U.S. crude $59.43 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $65.39 and U.S. crude $59.39 A Barrel Now
: OPEC Forecasts Oil As Low As $40 For Next Decade
: Letsbereal May 12, 2015, 06:03:25 AM
OPEC Forecasts Oil As Low As $40 For Next Decade
11 May 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-11/opec-forecasts-oil-low-40-next-decade

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/05/20150511_opec_0.jpg)

OPEC sees oil price below $100 a barrel in the next decade
12 May 2015
, by Benoit Faucon & Summer Said (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/opec-sees-oil-price-below-100-a-barrel-in-the-next-decade-2015-05-11-8103324


Brent crude $65.93 and U.S. crude $60.13 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $65.79 and U.S. crude $59.87 A Barrel Now
: Oil Jumps Above $61 After API Shows Larger-Than-Expected Inventory Draw
: Letsbereal May 13, 2015, 11:11:16 AM
Oil Jumps Above $61 After API Shows Larger-Than-Expected Inventory Draw
12 May 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-12/oil-jumps-above-61-after-api-shows-larger-expected-inventory-draw


Crude Pumps & Dumps After Inventory Draw Slows & Production Rises
13 May 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-13/crude-pumps-dumps-after-inventory-draw-slows-production-rises


Brent crude $67.53 and U.S. crude $61.26 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: The Oil Price Bounce Has Failed to Excite Equity Analysts. So Far
: Letsbereal May 15, 2015, 01:55:58 PM
The Oil Price Bounce Has Failed to Excite Equity Analysts. So Far. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-14/the-oil-price-bounce-has-failed-to-excite-equity-analysts-so-far-

Russia Was Right: Shale in Europe Has Proved a Dud http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-13/greece-returns-to-recession-as-bailout-impasse-drains-economy

Saudis Declare Victory Over Shale Just As US Oil Production Jumps, Bakken Wells Hit Record http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-14/saudis-declare-victory-over-shale-just-us-oil-production-jumps-bakken-wells-hit-reco

Oil down on ample supply as June Brent expires http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/14/us-markets-oil-idUSKBN0NZ05S20150514

For Big Oil, the Party’s Over in Alberta http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-14/alberta-liberals-election-win-spooks-canada-s-oil-industry

Oil Falls as Reduced U.S. Refinery Activity Curbs Crude Demand http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-14/oil-falls-for-second-day-as-refinery-rates-drop-most-in-4-months


U.S. Oil Futures Decline After Refiners Reduce Crude Runs http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-13/u-s-oil-futures-decline-after-refiners-reduce-crude-runs

$100 Oil Long Gone Puts Norway Closer to Plundering Wealth Fund - The mathematical truth of falling oil prices http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-12/easyjet-returns-to-first-half-profit-as-network-rivals-retrench

EIA Predicts Shale Oil Output Cuts to Grow Next Month http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-11/america-s-shale-oil-production-decline-seen-accelerating-in-june

America’s Oil Drilling Boom Is Sputtering Back to Life http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-08/america-s-oil-drilling-boom-is-sputtering-back-to-life

Shale-oil producers ready to raise production http://www.marketwatch.com/story/shale-oil-producers-ready-to-raise-production-2015-05-14


Brent crude $66.67 and U.S. crude $59.34 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Saudi Victory? WTI Crude Tumbles To Key Support (Again)
: Letsbereal May 16, 2015, 10:24:51 AM
Saudi Victory? WTI Crude Tumbles To Key Support (Again)
15 May 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-15/saudi-victory-wti-crude-tumbles-key-support-again

WTI Crude has tumbled back to the key $59.50 level...

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/05/20150515_Victory_0.jpg)

Crude Pops-And-Drops As Rig Count Decline Slowest In Over 6 Months
15 May 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-15/crude-pops-and-drops-rig-count-decline-slowest-over-6-months


Brent crude $66.81 and U.S. crude $59.69 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: JIM ROGERS - U.S. & Saudi Arabia Not In a Oil Price War
: Letsbereal May 16, 2015, 11:58:45 AM
JIM ROGERS - U.S. & Saudi Arabia Not In a Oil Price War https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y0fv36SZ3PU

May 15, 2015 Elite NWO Agenda


My God! Do you know what this means …………?  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dIIugm_FJOg

It means that this damned economy doesn’t work at all!!!

Funny how I hear Jason Burack of ‘Wall St for Main St’ complaining about the low oil. They expected it to rise already. That is a big mistake. I suspect they’ve invested in this oil rally which just didn’t come.

If you are going to accuse people of ‘Talking the oil price down’ you must be very desperate, whiteout any real good argument why it didn’t go up.

But I like these guys and listen to them fondfully because there is a lot of truth in what they say and they’re eager to investigate.



This May Just Be The Start Of The Oil Price War Says IEA
16 May 2015
, by Andy Tully (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-16/may-just-be-start-oil-price-war-says-iea


Brent crude $66.81 and U.S. crude $59.69 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Brent crude $66.09 and U.S. crude $59.44 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal May 18, 2015, 11:07:51 PM
Oil is at a make-or-break point
18 May 2015
, by Myra P. Saefong (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-is-at-a-make-or-break-level-2015-05-18

The U.S. benchmark for crude-oil prices faces a crossroads, from which it will either find support and push higher or tumble.

(http://ei.marketwatch.com//Multimedia/2015/05/15/Photos/NS/MW-DM120_nymex__20150515133702_NS.jpg?uuid=023cdc34-fb29-11e4-b19f-a4451bf9e534)

Goldman cuts crude outlook and oil company forecasts
18 May 2015
, (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/18/us-oil-forecast-goldman-idUSKBN0O30YG20150518

Iran deputy oil minister says OPEC unlikely to cut output
18 May 2015
, by Florence Tan - Kuala Lumpur (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/18/us-asia-oil-iran-idUSKBN0O301K20150518


Brent crude $66.09 and U.S. crude $59.44 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Oil Prices Will Fall: A Lesson In Gravity
: Letsbereal May 19, 2015, 01:05:09 PM
Oil Prices Will Fall: A Lesson In Gravity
19 May 2015
, by Arthur Berman (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-19/oil-prices-will-fall-lesson-gravity

(http://cdn.oilprice.com/images/tinymce/ada2765a-min.jpg)

Oil futures settle at lowest level of the month
19 May 2015
, by Myra P. Saefong & Eric Yep (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-steady-as-investors-weigh-iraq-violence-bearish-supply-2015-05-19-11033857

Goldman’s Currie warns that there is ‘too much money’ in oil now
19 May 2015
, by Sara Sjolin (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/goldmans-currie-warns-that-there-is-too-much-money-in-oil-now-2015-05-19

Goldman Sachs analysts—including Currie—on Monday cut their 2017-2018 forecast for crude oil to $60 a barrel from $65 previously and said they expect a further decline to $50 a barrel by 2020.


Brent crude $64.41 and U.S. crude $57.61 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $64.24 and U.S. crude $57.26 A Barrel Now
: Crude falling - then soaring - then dumping...
: Letsbereal May 20, 2015, 12:08:04 PM
Crude Tumbles Despite 3rd Weekly Inventory Draw & Production Plunge
20 May 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-20/crude-tumbles-despite-3rd-weekly-inventory-draw-production-plunge

Crude falling - then soaring - then dumping...

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/05/20150520_oil3_0.jpg)

Oil pares gains as U.S. supply falls, but output doesn’t
20 May 2015
, by Myra P. Saefong & Eric Yep (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-rebounds-in-asia-amid-tensions-in-yemen-supply-data-2015-05-20


Brent crude $64.81 and U.S. crude $58.78 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Why Oil's Rally Is Over
: Letsbereal May 22, 2015, 05:57:26 PM
Why Oil's Rally Is Over
22 May 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-22/why-oils-rally-over

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/05-overflow/20150522_cl_0.jpg)


Brent crude $65.59 and U.S. crude $59.99 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Drilling Efficiency To Keep Oil Prices Low
: Letsbereal May 24, 2015, 04:35:17 PM
Drilling Efficiency To Keep Oil Prices Low
24 May 2015
, by Michael McDonald (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-24/drilling-efficiency-keep-oil-prices-low

Iran says OPEC unlikely to change output ceiling: Mehr news agency
24 May 2015
, Dubai (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/24/us-opec-iran-idUSKBN0O905420150524


Brent crude $65.37 and U.S. crude $59.72 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Oil Futures Prices Divorced From Physical Markets For Now
: Letsbereal May 25, 2015, 03:16:13 PM
Oil Futures Prices Divorced From Physical Markets For Now
25 May 2015
, by Peter Sainsbury (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-25/oil-futures-prices-divorced-physical-markets-now


Brent crude $65.52 and U.S. crude $59.82 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Oil Markets Can’t Ignore The Fundamentals Forever
: Letsbereal May 26, 2015, 08:17:14 AM
Oil Markets Can’t Ignore The Fundamentals Forever
26 May 2015
, by Arthur Berman (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-26/oil-markets-can%E2%80%99t-ignore-fundamentals-forever

WTI Crude Prices Are Plunging (Again)
26 May 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-26/wti-crude-prices-are-plunging-again

Crude Carnage Continues - WTI Hits 1-Month Low
26 May 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-26/crude-carnage-continues-wti-hits-1-month-low

Technology for a Saudi fracking boom moves closer to reality
26 May 2015
, by Andrew Zaleski (CNBC)
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102691084

If you wonder why the price of oil has been going UP
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-26/were-living-make-believe-world-biderman-warns-global-recession-inevitable#comment-6133200


Brent crude $65.16 and U.S. crude $59.40 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $64.23 and U.S. crude $58.51 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $63.97 and U.S. crude $58.03 A Barrel Now
: Re: Brent crude $63.97 and U.S. crude $58.03 A Barrel Now
: CandidSeer May 27, 2015, 05:46:59 AM
Recently oil has reached $60 per barrel. This is about 30% more than what it was previously. Since past several time, oil prices were consistently decreasing which made the situations even worse to invest in oil stocks. But looking at the current scenario, conditions seems favorable to invest in good dividend yielding oil stocks.
: WTI Crude Crumbles Back To 6-Week Lows (Under $57.50)
: Letsbereal May 27, 2015, 12:34:06 PM
WTI Crude Crumbles Back To 6-Week Lows (Under $57.50)
27 May 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-27/wti-crude-crumbles-back-6-week-lows-under-5750

Crude Craters After API Reports "Disappointing" Inventory Build
27 May 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-27/crude-craters-after-api-reports-disappointing-inventory-build


Brent crude $62.87 and U.S. crude $57.98 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $62.14 and U.S. crude $57.62 A Barrel Now
: Crude Prices Bounce On Inventory Draw Despite Biggest Production Spike
: Letsbereal May 28, 2015, 07:05:20 PM
Oil Prices Drop To 7-Week Lows - Here's Why
28 May 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-28/oil-prices-drop-7-week-lows

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CGAZ6I1WgAAMR-2.jpg)

Crude Prices Bounce On Inventory Draw Despite Biggest Production Spike In 19 Months
28 May 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-28/crude-prices-bounce-inventory-draw-despite-biggest-production-spike-19-months

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/05-overflow/20150528_inv1_0.jpg)

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/05-overflow/20150528_inv4_0.jpg)

North American Oil Supply Glut Is Here to Stay: De Longis https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qoscvs_qUSo
May 28, 2015 Bloomberg Business

Alessio De Longis of Oppenheimer Funds Global Multi-Asset Group discusses oil production and global supply and demand dynamics. He speaks on “Bloomberg Surveillance.”


Super-Tanker Surge Signals More Crude Carnage To Come
28 May 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-28/super-tanker-surge-signals-more-crude-carnage-come

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/05-overflow/20150528_tanke_0.jpg)

OPEC sees rivals boosting oil output despite weak prices
28 May 2015
, London (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/28/us-oil-opec-report-idUSKBN0OD0EW20150528


Brent crude $62.58 and U.S. crude $58.23 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: "They Don't Want To Get Burned Again" - Oil ETF Sees Biggest Outflows In 6 Years
: Letsbereal May 29, 2015, 04:10:20 PM
"They Don't Want To Get Burned Again" - Oil ETF Sees Biggest Outflows In 6 Years
29 May 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-29/they-dont-want-get-burned-again-oil-etf-sees-biggest-outflows-6-years

“We do not think that the bulls have enough supporting fundamental factors to make a case for a higher oil price,” Harry Tchilinguirian, BNP Paribas SA’s London-based head of commodity markets strategy, said Thursday. The supply surplus will push oil down to “$55 and then possibly lower,” he said.

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/05-overflow/20150529_USO_0.jpg)

Oil ETFs Are Running Out of Gas https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4DJ6PPbTJlk
May 29, 2015 Bloomberg Business

WTI Crude Continues To Soar As Oil Rig Count Decline Re-Accelerates
29 May 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-29/wti-crude-continues-soar-oil-rig-count-decline-re-accelerates

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/05-overflow/20150529_rig2_0.jpg)

3 Things: Oil Trouble
29 May 2015
, by Lance Roberts (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-29/3-things-oil-trouble

The recent recovery in prices has all the earmarks of a technical "dead cat" bounce rather than a fundamentally driven recovery story.


Opinion: U.S. oil producers are back in the money, but OPEC is not - Iraq wants to crush U.S. shale, but will end up pounding sand
29 May 2015
, by Tim Mullaney (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-oil-producers-are-back-in-the-money-but-opec-is-not-2015-05-29


Brent crude $65.37 and U.S. crude $60.19 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $65.56 and U.S. crude $60.30 A Barrel Now
: How Wall Street Helps US Oil Producers Extend-And-Pretend
: Letsbereal June 01, 2015, 01:36:12 PM
How Wall Street Helps US Oil Producers Extend-And-Pretend
1 June 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-01/how-wall-street-helps-us-oil-producers-extend-and-pretend


Brent crude $64.51 and U.S. crude $59.60 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Investors cut bets on oil-price recovery
: Letsbereal June 02, 2015, 10:19:45 AM
Investors cut bets on oil-price recovery
1 June 2015
, by Georgi Kantchev - London (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/investors-cut-bets-on-oil-price-recovery-2015-06-01-9485337

Investors last week decreased the number of bets on a recovery in oil as a recent price rally seemed to be running out of gas.


Expect The Recent Oil Rally To End Badly If OPEC Doesn’t Cut
2 June 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-02/expect-recent-oil-rally-end-badly-if-opec-doesn%E2%80%99t-cut


Crude Slides After API Shows Another Inventory Build
2 June 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-02/crude-slides-after-api-shows-another-inventory-build


Brent crude $65.00 and U.S. crude $60.62 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $65.58 and U.S. crude $61.31 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $65.17 and U.S. crude $60.88 A Barrel Now
: Oil prices fall as OPEC chatter builds
: Letsbereal June 03, 2015, 12:51:17 PM
Oil prices fall as OPEC chatter builds - Traders focus on OPEC meeting Friday
3 June 2015
, by Myra P. Saefong (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-slips-on-investor-caution-us-inventory-data-awaited-2015-06-03-11035433

Oil prices extended earlier losses on Wednesday as data from a U.S. government report showed a fifth straight weekly decrease in crude supplies,

but production levels failed to decline even as the number of active U.S. rigs drilling for oil has fallen every week this year.



WTI Crude Pumps-And-Dumps As Increased Production Trumps Surprise Inventory Draw
3 June 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-03/wti-crude-pumps-and-dumps-increased-production-trumps-surprise-inventory-draw


Brent crude $64.14 and U.S. crude $60.14 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $63.87 and U.S. crude $59.74 A Barrel Now
: Saudis Believe They Are Winning The Oil Price War
: Letsbereal June 04, 2015, 11:12:29 AM
Saudis Believe They Are Winning The Oil Price War
4 June 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-04/saudis-believe-they-are-winning-oil-price-war


Brent crude $62.36 and U.S. crude $58.31 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $62.05 and U.S. crude $57.94 A Barrel Now
: Re: Saudis Believe They Are Winning The Oil Price War
: larsonstdoc June 05, 2015, 01:01:25 AM
Saudis Believe They Are Winning The Oil Price War
4 June 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-04/saudis-believe-they-are-winning-oil-price-war


Brent crude $62.36 and U.S. crude $58.31 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $62.05 and U.S. crude $57.94 A Barrel Now

  No doubt about it and their production costs are the lowest in the world.  Another big factor---no war in Saudi Arabia.
: Brent crude $61.62 and U.S. crude $57.47 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal June 05, 2015, 04:23:54 AM
OPEC - As Expected - Maintains Production At 30 Million Barrels, Crude Pops
5 June 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-05/opec-expected-maintains-production-30-million-barrels-crude-pops

Drop in rig counts helps oil stage last minute rally
5 June 2015
, by Myra P. Saefong, Barbara Kollmeyer & Eric Yep (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-trades-near-week-low-ahead-of-opec-meeting-2015-06-05-1103490

In OPEC’s new order, market share trumps supporting oil prices
5 June 2015
, by Myra P. Saefong (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/in-opecs-new-order-market-share-trumps-supporting-oil-prices-2015-06-05

Near-term, WTI crude could drop back a bit, with a possible trading range emerging, but whether that range is $55 to $65, $50 to $60 or $45 to $55, “remains to be seen,” said Cieszynski.


Brent crude $61.62 and U.S. crude $57.47 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $62.64 and U.S. crude $58.39 A Barrel Now
: Brent crude $63.31 and U.S. crude $59.13 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal June 06, 2015, 05:09:42 AM
Brent crude $63.31 and U.S. crude $59.13 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Oil retreats on weak China imports, OPEC decision
: Letsbereal June 08, 2015, 04:32:41 AM
Oil retreats on weak China imports, OPEC decision
8 June 2015
, by Eric Yep (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-retreats-on-weak-china-imports-opec-decision-2015-06-08-11032850

OPEC Set To Continue Playing The Waiting Game
8 June 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-08/opec-set-continue-playing-waiting-game

Did The World's Last Big Oil Price Support Just Falter?
8 June 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-08/did-worlds-last-big-oil-price-support-just-falter

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/06/20150608_china1_0.jpg)


Brent crude $63.08 and U.S. crude $58.75 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $62.50 and U.S. crude $57.90 A Barrel Now
: Brent crude $64.69 and U.S. crude $59.80 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal June 09, 2015, 10:37:20 AM
Oil rallies above $60 to settle at one-week high
9 June 2015
, by Myra P. Saefong & Barbara Kollmeyer (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-higher-as-dollar-retreats-demand-forecasts-ahead-2015-06-09

Brent crude $64.69 and U.S. crude $59.80 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $65.06 and U.S. crude $60.23 A Barrel Now
: U.S. monthly crude-oil output highest in more than 40 years
: Letsbereal June 10, 2015, 07:43:58 AM
U.S. monthly crude-oil output highest in more than 40 years
9 June 2015
, by Myra P. Saefong (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-crude-oil-monthly-output-was-highest-in-more-than-40-years-2015-06-09

(http://ei.marketwatch.com//Multimedia/2015/06/09/Photos/ZH/MW-DN695_eia_ou_20150609133445_ZH.jpg?uuid=dd2c3f76-0ecd-11e5-be3f-1deeded55f6d)

OPEC sees no further rise in crude demand in 2015
10 June 2015
, by Summer Said - Dubai (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/opec-sees-no-further-rise-in-crude-demand-in-2015-2015-06-10

BP CEO: Industry must live with lower oil prices
10 June 2015
, by Sarah Kent - London (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bp-ceo-industry-must-live-with-lower-oil-prices-2015-06-10

Still:

Oil prices climb 2%, near $62 a barrel
10 June 2015
, by Victor Reklaitis (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-climb-2-near-62-a-barrel-2015-06-10

Oil settles at 2015 high after sixth straight weekly supply drop
10 June 2015
, by Myra P. Saefong & Victor Reklaitis (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-climb-2-near-62-a-barrel-2015-06-10

Crude Soars Despite Record Saudi Production, Lowest China Demand Growth Since 1998
10 June 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-10/crude-soars-despite-record-saudi-production-lowest-china-demand-1998

Crude Pops (On The Biggest Inventory Draw In 11 Months) & Drops (On Production Rise)
10 June 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-10/crude-pops-biggest-inventory-draw-11-months-despite-production-rise


Brent crude $66.14 and U.S. crude $61.52 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $66.23 and U.S. crude $61.60 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $65.50 and U.S. crude $60.94 A Barrel Now
: Oil prices slip on strong dollar, bullish IEA report
: Letsbereal June 11, 2015, 09:20:54 AM
Oil prices slip on strong dollar, bullish IEA report
11 June 2015
, by Georgi Kantchev (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-slip-on-strong-dollar-bullish-iea-report-2015-06-11

Global demand for oil is rising, says IEA
11 June 2015
, by Summer Said (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/global-demand-for-oil-is-rising-says-iea-2015-06-11


Brent crude $65.37 and U.S. crude $61.00 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $64.64 and U.S. crude $60.37 A Barrel Now
: Brent crude $64.38 and U.S. crude $59.96 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal June 12, 2015, 08:36:45 AM
Oil futures fall further on oversupply concerns
12 June 2015
, by Eric Yep (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-futures-fall-further-on-oversupply-concerns-2015-06-12-11035925

Energy Stocks Give Up Week's Gains As WTI Drops Below $60
12 June 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-12/energy-stocks-give-weeks-gains-wti-drops-below-60

Oil Pops & Drops As Rig Count Decline Reaccelerates But Production Hits Record
12 June 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-12/oil-pops-rig-count-decline-reaccelerates

Oil down second day, weekly gain cut on Saudi output worry
12 June 2015
, by Barani Krishnan - New York (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/12/us-markets-oil-idUSKBN0OR0D320150612


Brent crude $63.87 and U.S. crude $59.96 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Brent crude $62.62 and U.S. crude $59.38 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal June 15, 2015, 10:51:27 AM
Brent crude $62.62 and U.S. crude $59.38 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Oil Pumps-And-Dumps On Smaller API Inventory Draw
: Letsbereal June 16, 2015, 06:06:01 PM
Oil Pumps-And-Dumps On Smaller API Inventory Draw
16 June 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-16/oil-pumps-and-dumps-smaller-api-inventory-draw

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/06/20150616_API_0.jpg)


Brent crude $63.70 and U.S. crude $60.02 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Biggest Glut In Recorded Crude-Oil History Taking Shape
: Letsbereal June 17, 2015, 11:01:49 AM
Biggest Glut In Recorded Crude-Oil History Taking Shape
17 June 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-17/biggest-glut-recorded-crude-oil-history-taking-shape

Oil supply has exceeded demand globally for the past five quarters, already the most enduring glut since the 1997 Asian economic crisis, International Energy Agency data show.


Mr. Andersen: For Maersk Oil, $55-$60 per barrel is the break-even point.

I would not exclude oil prices going down again, something like $55 in the short term.

FROM: Maersk bets that smaller shippers can't compete
17 June 2015
, by Costas Paris - Copenhagen (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/maersk-bets-that-smaller-shippers-cant-compete-2015-06-16-164855243


Crude Slides On Cushing, Gasoline Inventory Build, Lower 48 Production Rise
17 June 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-17/crude-slides-cushing-gasoline-inventory-build

And production rose (in the Lower 48) once again...

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/06/20150617_oil2_0.jpg)

The reaction is clear...

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/06/20150617_oil3_0.jpg)


Brent crude $64.85 and U.S. crude $60.69 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Brent crude $62.77 and U.S. crude $59.04 A Barrel Now
: Crude Slides As US Total Rig Count Decline Smallest Since December
: Letsbereal June 20, 2015, 05:36:39 AM
Crude Slides As US Total Rig Count Decline Smallest Since December
19 June 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-19/crude-slides-us-total-rig-count-decline-smallest-december


Brent crude $63.02 and U.S. crude $59.61 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Total Crude Production Near New Record High
: Letsbereal June 24, 2015, 01:27:11 PM
Stocks Jump, Oil Dumps After DOE Reports Bigger Than Expected Inventory Draw, Production Rises (Again)
24 June 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-24/stocks-jump-oil-dumps-after-doe-reports-bigger-expected-inventory-draw-production-ri


Brent crude $63.40 and U.S. crude $60.16 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: US Rig Count Increases For First Time In 29 Weeks
: Letsbereal June 26, 2015, 11:04:22 PM
US Rig Count Increases For First Time In 29 Weeks
26 June 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-26/us-rig-count-increases-first-time-29-weeks


Brent crude $63.26 and U.S. crude $59.63 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Iran may usher a quick return to $50 U.S. oil prices
: Letsbereal June 27, 2015, 03:04:28 AM
Iran may usher a quick return to $50 U.S. oil prices
23 June 2015
, by Myra P. Saefong (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/iran-may-usher-a-quick-return-to-50-us-oil-prices-2015-06-23

Oil marks third straight loss as Iran deal deadline nears
26 June 2015
, by Myra P. Saefong & Eric Yep (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-struggle-for-direction-as-investors-eye-greece-iran-deal-2015-06-26


Brent crude $63.26 and U.S. crude $59.63 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Brent crude $61.87 and U.S. crude $58.16 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal June 29, 2015, 10:28:54 PM
Crude Slips On Surprise API Inventory Build
30 June 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-30/crude-slips-surprise-api-inventory-build


Brent crude $61.87 and U.S. crude $58.16 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Oil still being kept going sidewards round the $60 level
: Letsbereal June 30, 2015, 06:48:59 PM
Brent crude $63.59 and U.S. crude $59.47 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/


Oil still being kept going sidewards round the $60 level.

: Crude Crashes To $56 Handle - 10-Week Lows
: Letsbereal July 01, 2015, 04:02:00 PM
Crude Crashes To $56 Handle - 10-Week Lows
1 July 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-01/crude-crashes-56-handle-10-week-lows

The Current Oil Price Slump Is Far From Over
1 July 2015
, by Arthur Berman (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-01/current-oil-price-slump-far-over

(http://www.artberman.com/wp-content/uploads/Daily-Crude-Oil-Prices-Through-June-20151-1024x704.jpg)


Brent crude $62.09 and U.S. crude $56.97 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Brent crude $62.48 and U.S. crude $57.25 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal July 02, 2015, 02:38:18 PM
Crude Slides After US Oil Rig Count Rises For First Time Since December
2 July 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-02/crude-slides-after-us-oil-rig-count-rises-first-time-december

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/07/20150702_riig1_0.jpg)


Brent crude $62.48 and U.S. crude $57.25 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Crude Carnage Continues – WTI Hits $55 Handle, Brent Tests $60
: Letsbereal July 03, 2015, 04:28:39 PM
Crude Carnage Continues – WTI Hits $55 Handle, Brent Tests $60
3 July 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-03/crude-carnage-continues-wti-hits-55-handle-brent-tests-60


Brent crude $60.32 and U.S. crude $55.52 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
: Crude Oil Plummets Most Since February, Nears 16 Year Support Line
: Letsbereal July 06, 2015, 01:51:38 PM
Crude Oil Plummets Most Since February, Nears 16 Year Support Line: Tap On The Shoulder Time?
6 July 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-06/tap-shoulder-time-crude-plummets-most-february-approaches-16-year-support-line


Was just wondering what crude did after Dr. Copper crashed? http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-06/copper-crashes-danger-breaching-15-year-support-level

Brent crude $57.45 and U.S. crude $53.33 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/

And still going down …
: Brent crude $57.05 and U.S. crude $52.92 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal July 06, 2015, 02:54:37 PM
Brent crude $57.05 and U.S. crude $52.92 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy
Brent crude $56.40 and U.S. crude $52.46 A Barrel Now


Seems I called the bottom in oil with US crude round $52.46 A Barrel, at least for the moment ... http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart

Brent crude $56.79 and U.S. crude $52.83 A Barrel Now
: Energy Credit Risk Re-Surges As WTI Crude Extends Losses To Worst Since November
: Letsbereal July 07, 2015, 08:17:45 AM
Energy Credit Risk Re-Surges As WTI Crude Extends Losses To Worst Since November
7 July 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-07/energy-credit-risk-re-surges-wti-crude-extends-losses-worst-november

Iranian Oil Exports To Double Following Nuclear Deal
7 July 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-07/iranian-oil-exports-double-following-nuclear-deal


Brent crude $56.86 and U.S. crude $52.25 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy
: Brent crude $55.17 and U.S. crude $50.59 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal July 07, 2015, 11:08:29 AM
Brent crude $55.17 and U.S. crude $50.59 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy
: Oil under $60 beyond 2016 suggests market rethinking shale
: Letsbereal July 08, 2015, 06:12:24 AM
Oil under $60 beyond 2016 suggests market rethinking shale
8 July 2015
, by Jonathan Leff and Jessica Resnick-Ault - New York (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/08/us-oil-prices-outlook-analysis-idUSKCN0PI0AU20150708


Brent crude $56.93 and U.S. crude $52.33 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy
: Re: Oil under $60 beyond 2016 suggests market rethinking shale
: larsonstdoc July 08, 2015, 10:51:10 AM
Oil under $60 beyond 2016 suggests market rethinking shale
8 July 2015
, by Jonathan Leff and Jessica Resnick-Ault - New York (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/08/us-oil-prices-outlook-analysis-idUSKCN0PI0AU20150708


Brent crude $56.93 and U.S. crude $52.33 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

  I suppose with the Chinese stock market and economy tanking, the price of oil will stay in the 50s for a while.  Maybe get back into the 40s.  Good news for the US consumer.  Gas is getting close to $3.00 for the cheap stuff.
: Re: Oil under $60 beyond 2016 suggests market rethinking shale
: larsonstdoc July 08, 2015, 11:07:29 AM
  I suppose with the Chinese stock market and economy tanking, the price of oil will stay in the 50s for a while.  Maybe get back into the 40s.  Good news for the US consumer.  Gas is getting close to $3.00 for the cheap stuff.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102817605

  video at the link....

If China loses control, look out oil: Dan Yergin

The massive selling in Chinese stocks is stoking fears that the government there may be losing control of its carefully managed economy, said Dan Yergin, a leading expert in international politics, energy, and economics—a prospect that's pressuring oil prices.

"We are seeing a panic in China. It goes back to 2008, when it always seemed the Chinese were really in control of their economy. They were the first ones out there with a stimulus, and now it looks like they don't know what to do," the vice chairman of information and analytics provider IHS told CNBC's "Squawk Box" Wednesday.

"The Chinese economy has already been slowing from the growth that it had been before," he continued. "The prime minister says it's no longer high growth, its medium-to-high growth. And if it's medium or low-to-medium growth, that's a big hit for the oil market."

A Pulitzer Prize winner for his book "The Epic Quest for Oil, Money & Power," Yergin stressed the importance of China as a consumer of crude. "If you look between 2003 and 2013 ... half of all the growth in world oil demand was in China," he said.

: Crude Carnage Continues After Another Inventory Build & Production Rise
: Letsbereal July 08, 2015, 11:56:25 AM
Crude Carnage Continues After Another Inventory Build & Production Rise
8 July 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-08/crude-carnage-continues-after-another-inventory-build-production-rise

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/07/20150708_oil_0.jpg)


Brent crude $56.82 and U.S. crude $51.70 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

In fact U.S. crude $51.03 A Barrel Now (Bloomberg has a delay) http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
In fact U.S. crude $50.96 A Barrel Now
: Oil prices are poised to fall further as Iran talks continue
: Letsbereal July 09, 2015, 06:08:32 AM
Oil prices are poised to fall further as Iran talks continue
8 July 2015
, by Myra P. Saefong (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/steeper-drop-in-oil-on-the-horizon-as-iran-looms-2015-07-07

It’s just a matter of time before sanctions on Iran are lifted. And when they are lifted, oil is likely to tumble further as the Persian Gulf country boosts production and battles swing-producer Saudi Arabia for market share.

Shell places huge bet on Arctic Oil riches
7 July 2015
, by Daniel Gilbert (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/shell-places-huge-bet-on-arctic-oil-riches-2015-07-07-20485122

Royal Dutch Shell  is days away from drilling in the Arctic Ocean--betting it can find enough oil to justify the huge risks that keep almost every other competitor out of those icy waters.


Brent crude $57.66 and U.S. crude $52.41 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

In fact U.S. crude $52.23 A Barrel Now (Bloomberg has a delay) http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: Oil under $60 beyond 2016 suggests market rethinking shale
: Letsbereal July 09, 2015, 12:33:34 PM
Oil under $60 beyond 2016 suggests market rethinking shale
8 July 2015
, by Jonathan Leff and Jessica Resnick-Ault - New York (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/08/us-oil-prices-outlook-analysis-idUSKCN0PI0AU20150708


Brent crude $59.09 and U.S. crude $53.13 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

In fact U.S. crude $52.99 A Barrel Now (Bloomberg has a delay) http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: IEA: Oil prices may fall more as demand slows
: Letsbereal July 10, 2015, 06:26:00 AM
IEA: Oil prices may fall more as demand slows
10 July 2015
, by Benoit Faucon (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/iea-oil-prices-may-fall-more-as-demand-slows-2015-07-10

The International Energy Agency said Friday global demand for oil would slow down next year, as it warned that crude prices could resume a recent downward spiral.


Brent crude $59.10 and U.S. crude $53.11 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy
Brent crude $58.32 and U.S. crude $52.35 A Barrel Now
: Crude Slips After Oil Rig Count Rises For 2nd Consecutive Week
: Letsbereal July 10, 2015, 08:38:18 PM
Crude Slips After Oil Rig Count Rises For 2nd Consecutive Week
10 July 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-10/crude-slips-after-oil-rig-count-rises-2nd-consecutive-week

Oil Price Plunge Reignites Fears for Indebted Shale Companies
10 July 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-10/oil-price-plunge-reignites-fears-indebted-shale-companies


Brent crude $58.73 and U.S. crude $52.74 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy
: EIA Confirms: Oil Production Peaked
: Letsbereal July 14, 2015, 06:32:54 AM
EIA Confirms: Oil Production Peaked
13 July 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-13/eia-confirms-oil-production-peaked


Brent crude $56.84 and U.S. crude $51.25 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy
Brent crude $58.40 and U.S. crude $52.94 A Barrel Now
: OPEC lowers 2015 demand forecast for its crude
: Letsbereal July 14, 2015, 02:10:38 PM
OPEC lowers 2015 demand forecast for its crude
13 July 2015
, by Summer Said (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/opec-lowers-2015-demand-forecast-for-its-crude-2015-07-13

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said Monday it revised down the demand for its crude this year, to a level far below its current output, despite higher estimates for global consumption.


Brent crude $58.11 and U.S. crude $52.73 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy
: DOE Confirms Larger Than Expected Crude Inventory Draw
: Letsbereal July 15, 2015, 11:42:26 AM
DOE Confirms Larger Than Expected Crude Inventory Draw, Production Drops Most In 2 Months
15 July 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-15/doe-confirms-larger-expected-crude-inventory-draw-production-drops-most-2-months


Short Oil Long Gas, plenty of Dax fightback left https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cx4SbcBwPi0
Jul 15, 2015 Tip TV Finance

Natural Gas is expected to see an upside climb, while WTI crude oil sees the probability of a dip below the key %50 handle, according to Francis Hunt of The Market Sniper.

Francis explains through technical charts how it is too soon to call a bottom in oil prices. The pattern formations have failed, so the outlook remains more cloudy.

There is high chance that oil dips lower to form new lows. On Natural Gas, he explains the behaviour in prices during times of crisis events.


HFT hasn’t picked up on this bullish Zero Hedge ‘Larger Than Expected Crude Inventory Draw’ headline yet. In fact oil is still going down as we speak.

Brent crude $57.57 and U.S. crude $52.19 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

In fact U.S. crude $51.67 A Barrel Now (Bloomberg has a delay) http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: Brent crude $57.00 and U.S. crude $51.47 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal July 15, 2015, 01:35:00 PM
Nymex oil drops 3% to a more than 3-month low
15 July 2015
, by Myra P. Saefong & Sara Sjolin (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-wobble-after-inventory-data-iran-deal-2015-07-15

Traders assess U.S. supply data, mull impact of Iran agreement.


Brent crude $57.00 and U.S. crude $51.47 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy
Brent crude $56.93 and U.S. crude $51.30 A Barrel Now
: WTI Tumbles Back To A $50 Handle On Iran, Default, And Cushing Build Fears
: Letsbereal July 16, 2015, 10:58:47 AM
WTI Tumbles Back To A $50 Handle On Iran, Default, And Cushing Build Fears
16 July 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-16/wti-tumbles-back-towards-50-handle-iran-and-cushing-build-fears


Brent crude $57.93 and U.S. crude $51.19 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy
: Here Comes The Oil Glut: First Iranian Oil Tanker Sets Sail
: Letsbereal July 16, 2015, 04:17:12 PM
Here Comes The Oil Glut: First Iranian Oil Tanker Sets Sail
16 July 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-16/here-comes-oil-glut-first-iranian-oil-tanker-sets-sail


Brent crude $57.51 and U.S. crude $50.98 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy
Brent crude $57.51 and U.S. crude $50.88 A Barrel Now
: Brent crude $57.03 and U.S. crude $50.84 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal July 17, 2015, 07:04:00 AM
US Rig Count Decline Reaccelerates Back To Cycle Lows
17 July 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-17/us-rig-count-decline-reaccelerates-back-cycle-lows

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/07/20150717_rig_0.jpg)


Brent crude $57.03 and U.S. crude $50.84 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy
Brent crude $56.71 and U.S. crude $50.46 A Barrel Now
: WTI Crude Tumbles Below $50 - 3 Month Lows
: Letsbereal July 20, 2015, 07:17:33 PM
WTI Crude Tumbles Below $50 - 3 Month Lows
20 July 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-20/wti-crude-tumbles-below-50-3-month-lows

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/07/20150720_wti2_0.jpg)


Brent crude $56.65 and U.S. crude $50.04 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy
: Halliburton secures $500 million to fund drilling in old wells
: Letsbereal July 21, 2015, 12:49:07 AM
Halliburton secures $500 million to fund drilling in old wells
20 July 2015
, by Amrutha Gayathri (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/20/us-halliburton-results-idUSKCN0PU11H20150720

Halliburton said it had tapped BlackRock for $500 million to help fund drilling in existing shale wells, the first such move by a major oilfield services provider at a time when oil producers are shying away from drilling new wells.

Oil prices dips below $50 on ample supply, strong dollar
20 July 2015
, by Robert Gibbons - New York (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/20/us-markets-oil-idUSKCN0PU01X20150720

Oil futures fell on Monday and U.S. crude slipped below $50 a barrel intraday as ample supply, the prospect of more Iranian crude for export and a strengthening dollar combined to pressure prices.


Brent crude $56.60 and U.S. crude $49.99 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy
: WTI Crude Clubbed To 4-Month Lows, Tests $48 Handle
: Letsbereal July 22, 2015, 03:31:30 PM
WTI Crude Clubbed To 4-Month Lows, Tests $48 Handle
22 July 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-22/wti-crude-clubbed-4-month-lows-tests-48-handle

"Far Worse Than 1986": The Oil Downturn Has No Parallel In Recorded History, Morgan Stanley Says
22 July 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-22/far-worse-1986-oil-downturn-has-no-parallel-recorded-history-morgan-stanley-says


Brent crude $56.00 and U.S. crude $49.13 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy
: WTI Crude Tumbles To $48 Handle, Energy Stocks At Dec 2012 Lows
: Letsbereal July 23, 2015, 03:45:07 PM
WTI Crude Tumbles To $48 Handle, Energy Stocks At Dec 2012 Lows
23 July 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-23/wti-crude-tumbles-48-handle-energy-stocks-dec-2012-lows


Brent crude $55.36 and U.S. crude $48.71 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

In fact U.S. crude $48.65 A Barrel Now (Bloomberg has a delay) http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: Re: Brent crude $55.36 and U.S. crude $48.71 A Barrel Now
: windyacres July 24, 2015, 02:58:38 AM
U.S. crude $48.71 A Barrel Now

Wow!  Thanks for the daily crude oil price posts!
What's odd is unleaded gasoline has been steadily increasing
and last weekend, one station raised its' prices twice in one day!
Unleaded is $3.25 a gallon in my area and next month a .07 cent
state gas tax is kicking in.   
: Brent crude $54.47 and U.S. crude $47.92 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal July 24, 2015, 01:47:48 PM
Wow!  Thanks for the daily crude oil price posts!
What's odd is unleaded gasoline has been steadily increasing
and last weekend, one station raised its' prices twice in one day!
Unleaded is $3.25 a gallon in my area and next month a .07 cent
state gas tax is kicking in.

Crude Collapse Continues - WTI Trades $47 Handle, New 4-Month Lows, Credit Crashing
24 July 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-24/crude-collapse-continues-wti-trades-47-handle-new-4-month-lows-credit-crashing

Crude Slips After Oil Rig Count Surges By Most In 15 Months
24 July 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-24/crude-slips-after-oil-rig-count-surges-my-most-15-months


Wur going down buddy, we've got the $47 handle now!

Brent crude $54.47 and U.S. crude $47.92 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy
: Brent crude $53.69 and U.S. crude $47.67 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal July 27, 2015, 11:12:08 AM
Knife-Catching Hedge Fund Oil Bulls Dump Crude At Fastest Pace In 3 Years
27 July 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-27/knife-catching-hedge-fund-oil-bulls-dump-crude-fastest-pace-3-years

“There’s a lot more room for prices to slide,” Emerson said. “It’s going to take a long time for this to work itself out.”

Who Is To Blame For The Global Oil Supply Glut In Charts (Hint: Not Iran)
27 July 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-27/who-blame-global-oil-supply-glut-charts-hint-not-iran


It would be nice to know which of these OECD members exactly are causing this oil glut since a lot of these OECD countries don’t produce oil at all?

AUSTRALIA, AUSTRIA, BELGIUM, CANADA, CHILE, CZECH REPUBLIC, DENMARK, ESTONIA, FINLAND, FRANCE, GERMANY, GREECE, HUNGARY, ICELAND, IRELAND, ISRAEL, ITALY, JAPAN, KOREA, LUXEMBOURG, MEXICO, NETHERLANDS, NEW ZEALAND, NORWAY, POLAND, PORTUGAL, SLOVAK REPUBLIC, SLOVENIA, SPAIN, SWEDEN, SWITZERLAND, TURKEY, UNITED KINGDOM and UNITED STATES.

List of OECD Member countries http://www.oecd.org/about/membersandpartners/list-oecd-member-countries.htm

From the top of my head the oil producing OECD members are and correct if I am wrong:

CANADA, DENMARK, ICELAND, IRELAND, MEXICO, NORWAY, UNITED KINGDOM and UNITED STATES.

But then the question: Who are the biggest oil producers? From my questimation: CANADA, MEXICO, NORWAY and UNITED STATES.

(http://blogs-images.forbes.com/gauravsharma/files/2014/12/Global-Top-10-Oil-Producers-IEA-Deutsche-Bank.jpg)

Source: http://www.forbes.com/sites/gauravsharma/2014/12/24/supply-correction-will-support-oil-price-in-2015/


Brent crude $53.69 and U.S. crude $47.67 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy
Brent crude $52.92 and U.S. crude $47.08 A Barrel Now
: Wur at the Oil $46 handle now!
: Letsbereal July 27, 2015, 04:55:33 PM
Brent crude $52.86 and U.S. crude $46.97 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart


Wur at the Oil $46 handle now!
: Oil prices will stay 'lower for longer': BP CFO
: Letsbereal July 28, 2015, 02:26:55 PM
Oil prices will stay 'lower for longer': BP CFO
28 July 2015
, by Sarah Kent - London (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-will-stay-lower-for-longer-bp-cfo-2015-07-28

The slump in oil prices isn't over yet, BP PLC's chief financial officer Brian Gilvary said Tuesday.

The company is positioning itself for a world in which oil prices remain "lower for longer," after the market tanked last June.

Though prices rebounded somewhat in the second quarter, they've fallen back in the last month after a nuclear deal with Iran raised the prospect of more supply in the coming months.

"We haven't yet seen the full affect come through," Mr. Gilvary said, noting that the Iranian barrels probably won't hit the market until next year.

Oil prices to remain soft in short, medium term: BP CFO
28 July 2015
, London (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/28/us-bp-oil-idUSKCN0Q213R20150728


Which is more likely, $33 or $75 oil?
27 July 2015
, by Nigam Arora (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/which-is-more-likely-33-or-75-oil-2015-07-27

Price forecast

Oil is the most volatile commodity, and our price forecast is revised weekly. We expect it to trade in a very wide range. Here are our forecast ranges at this time.

    2015 — $33.00 to $62.00
    2016 — $33.00 to $75.00
    2017 — $55.00 to $85.00


Brent crude $53.34 and U.S. crude $47.92 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: Re: Brent crude $53.34 and U.S. crude $47.92 A Barrel Now
: windyacres July 29, 2015, 12:12:50 AM
With crude prices falling, unleaded gasoline in a two hour
radius has continually gone up!  In town it jumped again
.03 cents in the last 2 days!  It makes no sense when you
look at crude oil prices. 
: Re: Brent crude $53.34 and U.S. crude $47.92 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal July 29, 2015, 12:49:45 AM
With crude prices falling, unleaded gasoline in a two hour
radius has continually gone up!  In town it jumped again
.03 cents in the last 2 days!  It makes no sense when you
look at crude oil prices.

Of course these are Crude Oil prices which means on top of that there are costs for refining the oil on a certain location, to which the crude has to be transported first after which it has to be moved from that location to the consumer.

And that can make a huge difference in Gasoline prices across the States. See:

Why fracking boom isn’t driving down Seattle gas prices http://seattletimes.com/html/businesstechnology/2024377098_gaspricesxml.html

Cheap Oil Jamming Rails Means Higher U.S. Power Bills http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-12-17/cheap-oil-jamming-rails-means-higher-u-s-power-bills.html

All thanks to our ol friendly ice eating friend Buffet http://forum.prisonplanet.com/index.php?topic=266408.0

: Crude Tumbles Near $46 Handle As US Oil Rig Count Rises For 2nd Week
: Letsbereal July 31, 2015, 05:57:02 PM
Crude Tumbles Near $46 Handle As US Oil Rig Count Rises For 2nd Week
31 July 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-31/crude-tumbles-near-46-handle-us-oil-rig-count-rises-2nd-week

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/07-overflow/20150731_rig.jpg)


Brent crude $51.79 and U.S. crude $46.77 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: WTI Crude Crashes To $45 Handle - Lowest Since March
: Letsbereal August 03, 2015, 01:51:51 PM
WTI Crude Crashes To $45 Handle - Lowest Since March
3 August 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-03/wti-crude-crashes-45-handle-lowest-march

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08/20150803_wti_0.png)


Brent crude $49.87 and U.S. crude $45.39 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: Oil just bounced off the $45.20 level ...
: Letsbereal August 03, 2015, 05:28:59 PM
Oil just bounced off the $45.20 level ...

Brent crude $49.66 and U.S. crude $45.33 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: WTI Plunges To $44 Handle, Near 5-Month Lows
: Letsbereal August 05, 2015, 02:22:10 PM
WTI Plunges To $44 Handle, Near 5-Month Lows
5 August 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-05/wti-plunges-44-handle-near-5-month-lows

Cash-Strapped Saudi Arabia Hopes To Continue War Against Shale With Fed's Blessing
5 August 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-05/cash-strapped-saudi-arabia-hopes-continue-war-against-shale-feds-blessing


Brent crude $49.49 and U.S. crude $45.16 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: Crude oil settles below $45 as oversupply fears persist
: Letsbereal August 06, 2015, 07:40:45 PM
Crude oil settles below $45 as oversupply fears persist
6 August 2015
, by William Watts & Georgi Kantchev (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crude-oil-slides-below-45-as-oversupply-fears-persist-2015-08-06

Crude Carnage Continues As Goldman Warns "Storage Is Running Out"
6 August 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-06/crude-carnage-continues-goldman-warns-storage-running-out


Brent crude $49.52 and U.S. crude $44.79 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: WTI Crude Breaks To $43 Handle After Another Rise In Oil Rig Count
: Letsbereal August 07, 2015, 04:57:01 PM
WTI Crude Breaks To $43 Handle After Another Rise In Oil Rig Count (To 3 Month Highs)
7 August 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-07/wti-crude-breaks-43-handle-after-another-rise-oil-rig-count-3-month-highs

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08/20150806_rig_0.jpg)

Crude Poised for Sixth Weekly Decline Amid Global Glut
7 August 2015
, by Mark Shenk and Angelina Rascouet
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-06/oil-heads-for-sixth-weekly-decline-as-goldman-sees-extended-glut


Brent crude $48.55 and U.S. crude $43.83 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: Stephen Schork: Oil Prices Heading Below $40 A Barrel At The End Of This Year
: Letsbereal August 08, 2015, 03:24:44 PM
Stephen Schork: The Commodity Crash Is "A Canary In The Coal Mine For The Global Economy"
8 August 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
Video: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-08/stephen-schork-commodity-crash-canary-coal-mine-global-economy

Excerpt:

Stephen Schork: ... from a demand perspective on the seasonal front, it's August 7. We only have four more weeks left of summer driving, then the peak gasoline season is over.

Then we head into the fall where the fall turnaround; that is the refinery maintenance season begins.

So refineries will scale back in their crude oil purchases. So right now we are at the peak of the demand season.

Demand is only going to fall between now and the end of the year. On the supply side we are still producing.

Regardless of what the oil bulls will tell you about the pullback in production, or the anticipated pullback in production, we have not yet seen it, and we will not see significant pullback I believe through the end of this year.

So you marry those two facts together, fall in demand, strong production, i.e. I do think oil prices are headed below $40 a barrel in the latter half of this year.


Oil, Metals Rout Point to Economic Issues, Schork Says http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-08-07/oil-metals-rout-point-to-economic-issues-schork-says

August 7, 2015 Bloomberg


There have been a lot of people, also from the alternative financial media, who have invested in higher oil prices to soon and are talking their book.

What Stephen Schork says is completely realistic: "I do think oil prices are headed below $40 a barrel in the latter half of this year." but a lot of investors don't like to hear that.

Can be a bit proud on myself that I saw this coming immediately back in December 27, 2014 when I started this Topic.

First I predicted that oil prices would stay low for at least half a year which I later changed to 18 months.

Now we even start seeing predictions coming out for oil to stay low for 5 years to a decade!


Shell Warns: Oil Price Recovery Will Take 5 Years http://wolfstreet.com/2015/07/19/shell-warns-oil-price-recovery-will-take-5-years/

BP CEO: Oil prices will stay ‘lower for longer’ http://www.cnbc.com/2015/04/21/bp-ceo-oil-prices-will-stay-lower-for-longer.html

For Dudley, prices could linger at these levels for “several years.” He believes U.S. production will continue to increase even as oil companies reduce the number of active rigs.

OPEC: oil will stay under $100 a barrel for next 10 years http://www.autoblog.com/2015/05/17/opec-expects-oil-under-100-barrel-next-10-years/


Brent crude $48.61 and U.S. crude $43.87 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: Crude Chaos
: Letsbereal August 10, 2015, 03:24:48 PM
Crude Chaos
10 August 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-10/crude-chaos

Cry havoc and let slip the algos of war... WTI Crude prices are flip-flopping faster than Hillary Clinton at a fundraising event... on no news whatsoever...

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08/20150810_crude_0.jpg)


Brent crude $50.20 and U.S. crude $44.79 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: OPEC Ups Production To 3 Year Highs As Iran Output Surges
: Letsbereal August 11, 2015, 11:16:39 AM
From Currency Wars To Oil Wars - OPEC Ups Production To 3 Year Highs As Iran Output Surges
11 August 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-11/currency-wars-oil-wars-opec-ups-production-3-year-highs-iran-output-surges

The reaction - for once - makes sense...

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08/20150811_oil_0.jpg)


Oil Tumbles Under $43, Approaches Goldman's "Last Ditch" Support Level
11 August 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-11/oil-tumbles-under-43-approaches-goldmans-last-ditch-support-level


Brent crude $48.94 and U.S. crude $43.14 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: IEA Sees Oil Glut Through 2016 After Reaching 17-Year High
: Letsbereal August 12, 2015, 08:18:09 PM
IEA Sees Oil Glut Through 2016 After Reaching 17-Year High
12 August 2015
, by Grant Smith (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-12/iea-sees-oil-glut-enduring-in-2016-after-reaching-17-year-high

Iraq’s Oil Output Climbs to Record as South Escapes Fighting
12 August 2015
, by Nayla Razzouk (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-12/iraq-boosts-oil-output-to-all-time-high-in-july-iea-says

OPEC Supply Reaches 3-Year High as Iran Pumps Most Since ’12
11 August 2015
, by Grant Smith (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-11/opec-output-reaches-3-year-high-as-iran-pumps-most-since-2012


Brent crude $49.66 and U.S. crude $43.45 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: WTI Crude Tumbles Back To $42 Handle
: Letsbereal August 13, 2015, 11:26:25 AM
WTI Crude Tumbles Back To $42 Handle
13 August 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-13/wti-crude-tumbles-back-42-handle

Oil Falls to a Six-Year Low
13 August 2015
, by Mark Shenk (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-12/oil-holds-rebound-from-six-year-low-as-u-s-crude-supplies-fall

Emerging-Markets Veteran Sees Oil Falling to $30 by December
13 August 2015
, by Bei Hu (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-12/lloyd-george-sees-oil-near-30-by-year-end-buys-chinese-stocks

Iran Targets 45 Oil and Gas Projects in Plan to Boost Output
13 August 2015
, by Hashem Kalantari (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-13/iran-targets-45-oil-and-gas-projects-in-plan-to-boost-production

Here’s How U.S. Producers Can Still Profit From $30 Oil – VID http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-08-13/here-s-how-u-s-producers-can-still-profit-from-30-oil

August 13, 2015 Bloomberg

In other words, the US will keep producing oil so prices will fall accordingly.

North Sea Paradox Puts Pressure on International Oil Benchmark
13 August 2015
, by Angelina Rascouet, Rakteem Katakey and Laura Hurst (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-12/north-sea-oil-defies-price-slump-as-output-rises-a-second-year

After an increase last year, the region’s production will rise again in 2015 to almost 3 million barrels a day, the first consecutive annual gains in 15 years, the International Energy Agency said Wednesday.

The extra supply is entering a global market already “awash” with competing grades of oil, it said.

The impact will be felt across the world because the North Sea -- home of the Brent benchmark -- plays an outsized role in the oil market.

Even small gains in the region’s output can move prices significantly
, according to consultant Energy Aspects Ltd. Production gains resulted in an “armada” of unsold North Sea cargoes in June and July, the IEA said.

Oil Trades Under $42 To 6 Year Lows, Gundlach Sees "Terrifying Geopolitical Consequences" Looming
13 August 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-13/oil-trades-under-42-6-year-lows-gundlach-sees-terrifying-geopolitical-consequences-l

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/01/20150105_oilcrisis_0.jpg)


Brent crude $48.99 and U.S. crude $42.14 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: Crude Oil's Carnage Has Only Just Begun
: Letsbereal August 15, 2015, 01:40:19 AM
Why Crude Oil's Carnage Has Only Just Begun
14 August 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-14/why-crude-oils-carnage-has-only-just-begun

US Oil Rig Count Rises For 4th Consecutive Week - Highest Since April
14 August 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-14/us-oil-rig-count-rises-4th-consecutive-week-highest-april

Why U.S. rig counts are rising even as oil plunges to new lows
14 August 2015
, by William Watts (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-us-rig-counts-are-rising-even-as-oil-plunges-to-new-lows-2015-08-14

Oil's Worst-Ever Summer Signals Price Rout Is Nowhere Near Done
14 August 2015
, by Grant Smith (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-14/oil-s-worst-ever-summer-signals-price-rout-is-nowhere-near-done

$20 Oil? Three Things We Learned This Week
14 August 2015
, (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-14/-20-oil-three-things-we-learned-this-week


Brent crude $49.03 and U.S. crude $42.50 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: Why gas prices are rising as oil falls to 6-year lows
: Letsbereal August 16, 2015, 12:46:59 AM
Why gas prices are rising as oil falls to 6-year lows
15 August 2015
, by William Watts (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-gas-prices-are-rising-as-oil-falls-to-6-year-lows-2015-08-15

OPEC May Boost Oil Output to Record With Iran Back Amid Glut
16 August 2015
, by Hashem Kalantari (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-16/opec-may-boost-oil-output-to-record-with-iran-back-amid-glut


Brent crude $49.19 and U.S. crude $42.50 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: Oil Could Be Heading as Low as $15 or $20 a Barrel - VID
: Letsbereal August 17, 2015, 04:16:31 PM
Is Oil Heading as Low as $15 or $20 a Barrel? - VID http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-08-17/could-lower-for-longer-oil-mean-12-per-barrel-
August 17, 2015 Bloomberg

David Kotok of Cumberland Advisors explain why oil could drop to $15 or $20 per barrel as the market stays in an extended selloff.

Oil Drops to Six-Year Low as Resilient Crude Output Adds to Glut
17 August 2015
, by Mark Shenk and Grant Smith (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-16/oil-resumes-decline-as-u-s-drillers-add-rigs-for-fourth-week


Brent crude $48.67 and U.S. crude $41.89 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: The Commodity Currency Plunge Is Making the Oil Crash Even Worse
: Letsbereal August 18, 2015, 12:40:23 PM
The Commodity Currency Plunge Is Making the Oil Crash Even Worse
18 August 2015
, by Mark Shenk and Rebecca Penty (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-17/oil-bull-agony-prolonged-as-commodity-currency-drop-extends-glut

Excerpt:

Crude bulls, stung by the worst July on record, should expect further pain as slumping commodity currencies cut production costs.

Drillers from Russia to Canada, the world’s second- and fourth-biggest oil producers, sell crude in U.S. dollars while paying most operating costs in local currencies.

The Canadian dollar dropped to an 11-year low against its U.S. counterpart this month while the Russian ruble trades near a six-month low.

Global oil supply has proven resilient.

A 60% decline in U.S. dollar prices since June 2014 hasn’t curbed U.S. production, which is near the highest level in four decades.

Iraq is producing at a record pace and Russian oil output reached a post-Soviet high this year.

The world’s oil glut will last through 2016, the International Energy Agency said in an Aug. 12 report.

“The cross-commodity downdraft led by oil, gold and copper has hit producer currencies hard,” Mike Wittner, head of oil-market research at Societe Generale SA in New York, said by phone.

“The weaker their currencies get versus the dollar, the lower their costs. This further weighs on commodity prices and just adds to the negative spiral.”

Commodity currencies have been the worst performers in a Bloomberg ranking of major world currencies this year as raw-material prices collapsed and the Federal Reserve moved toward its first rate increase in almost a decade.

The Brazilian real, New Zealand dollar and the Canadian loonie have led declines against the U.S. dollar.


API Reports 4th Consecutive Inventory Draw But Crude Slides On Cushing Build
18 August 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-18/api-reports-4th-consecutive-inventory-build-crude-slides-cushing-build


Brent crude $48.67 and U.S. crude $42.29 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: Brent crude $47.80 and U.S. crude $41.36 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal August 19, 2015, 11:37:19 AM
Crude Plunges To Cycle Lows After Biggest Inventory Build In 4 Months Despite Ongoing Production Cuts
19 August 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-19/crude-tumbles-after-biggest-inventory-build-4-months-despite-production-drop

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08/20150819_DOE_0.jpg)


Brent crude $47.80 and U.S. crude $41.36 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: Crude at the $40 Handle Now!
: Letsbereal August 19, 2015, 12:34:26 PM
Crude at the $40 Handle Now!


How the Worst Performing Oil Companies Are Making More Than Exxon
19 August 2015
, by Allison McNeely Asjylyn Loder (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-19/oil-patch-s-biggest-losers-sell-crude-for-more-than-exxon-mobil

Some of the worst-performing oil companies in North America are getting more for their crude than Exxon Mobil Corp. and other giants. That may not help them for long.

Goodrich Petroleum Corp., the biggest loser in the Bloomberg Intelligence index of North American independent producers, sold its output for $86.49 a barrel in the second quarter, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Halcon Resources Corp., which is down 49% this year, reaped $81.18. Compare that with Chevron Corp., which received an average $54.26, and Exxon Mobil, which got $56.90.

The reason: lack of cash.

Smaller companies with riskier credit bought insurance against an oil crash, which locked in higher prices and reassured lenders that they’d get paid back.

The hedges have been critical as oil dipped more than 60% since June 2014 to a six-year low below $42 a barrel.


“The more debt you have, the more hedges you need to protect yourself in a downturn,” Leo Mariani, an analyst with RBC Capital Markets in Austin, Texas, said Aug. 11 by phone.

“That’s why the really big companies don’t have hedges. They don’t have much debt, and they don’t need them.”

Exxon Mobil can afford not to hedge. The company reported last month that it has $4.3 billion in cash, even after its worst quarterly profit since 2009.

Representatives from Chevron, Goodrich and Halcon didn’t return calls or e-mails seeking comment, and a spokesman from Exxon declined to comment.

The average prices for Goodrich, Exxon and Chevron include crude and natural gas liquids.

As oil hedges expire next year and in 2017, companies such as Halcon and Goodrich will feel the strain, said Brian Velie, an analyst with Capital One Securities in New Orleans.

While well-timed hedges saved them this year, the companies are unlikely to be adding new protection now that prices have collapsed.

I think they’re really reluctant to hedge in at $50 oil,” Velie said. “It’s almost like admitting that you missed the window.”



OPEC's ‘Fragile Five’ Face Rising Cost in the Fight for Oil Market Share - Crude's at a six-year low and the political risks are mounting
19 August 2015
, by Grant Smith (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-18/opec-s-fragile-five-face-rising-cost-in-the-fight-for-oil-market-share

"If we haven't got a recovery by the mid-point of next year, that's when the questions will arise... has the strategy paid off or not, and will there need to be a change in strategy."


Brent crude $47.08 and U.S. crude $40.86 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy
Brent crude $46.92 and U.S. crude $40.54 A Barrel Now

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: WTI Crude Breaks Below Historic $40 Level, Energy Credit Spikes To Record Highs
: Letsbereal August 21, 2015, 03:10:35 PM
WTI Crude Breaks Below Historic $40 Level, Energy Credit Spikes To Record Highs After Rig Count Rise
21 August 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-21/wti-crude-breaks-below-historic-40-level-energy-credit-spikes-record-highs-after-rig


Brent crude $45.46 and U.S. crude $40.40 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: Re: Brent crude $45.46 and U.S. crude $40.40 A Barrel Now
: windyacres August 21, 2015, 05:16:54 PM
As of the close on Friday August 21, 2015
 Crude Oil 40.27  (-2.54% )

And looking at the closing numbers
The DOW closed  down -530.94    (-3.12%) to 16,459.75

 
: Oil Falls Below $40 a Barrel for First Time Since 2009
: Letsbereal August 21, 2015, 08:18:13 PM
As of the close on Friday August 21, 2015
 Crude Oil 40.27  (-2.54% )

And looking at the closing numbers
The DOW closed  down -530.94    (-3.12%) to 16,459.75

Oil Falls Below $40 a Barrel for First Time Since 2009
21 August 2015
, by Moming Zhou and Mark Shenk (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-20/oil-heads-for-longest-weekly-losing-streak-since-1986-amid-glut


Donnow which chart is most accurate $40.23, $40.27 or $40.45 A Barrel Now? But we catch the drift.

Brent crude $45.46 and U.S. crude $40.45 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart U.S. crude $40.23 A Barrel Now http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: Is The Oil Crash A Result Of Excess Supply Or Plunging Demand?
: Letsbereal August 21, 2015, 10:49:02 PM
Is The Oil Crash A Result Of Excess Supply Or Plunging Demand: The Unpleasant Answer In One Chart
21 August 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-21/oil-crash-result-excess-supply-or-plunging-demand-answer-one-chart

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2015/08/oil%20supply%20demand_0.jpg)
: Crude Snaps Below $40 : Gartman Stopped Out Of Oil Long
: Letsbereal August 24, 2015, 04:06:30 PM
Crude Snaps Below $40 : Gartman Stopped Out Of Oil Long
23 August 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-23/crude-snaps-below-40-gartman-stopped-out-oil-long


Brent crude $42.53 and U.S. crude $38.10 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: WTI Crude Tumbles To $38 Handle
: Letsbereal August 24, 2015, 04:10:03 PM
Carnage Continues Across European Stocks; EURUSD Surges Above 1.1500 As WTI Crude Tumbles To $38 Handle
24 August 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-24/carnage-continues-across-european-stocks-eurusd-surges-above-11500-wti-crude-tumbles


Brent crude $42.53 and U.S. crude $38.10 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: Oil settles below $39 a barrel for the first time since Feb. 2009
: Letsbereal August 25, 2015, 05:17:28 AM
Oil settles below $39 a barrel for the first time since Feb. 2009
24 August 2015
, by Sara Sjolin & Eric Yep (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-tumbles-to-fresh-lows-on-china-market-turmoil-2015-08-24-2103336


Brent crude $43.43 and U.S. crude $39.03 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: Iran Prepared To Defend Old Market Share "At Any Cost"
: Letsbereal August 26, 2015, 11:16:08 PM
Iran Prepared To Defend Old Market Share "At Any Cost"
26 August 2015
, by Andy Tully (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-26/iran-prepared-defend-old-market-share-any-cost

Gasoline futures lose nearly 6%, drag oil lower
26 August 2015
, by MyraP. Saefong (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-waver-but-stay-above-39-a-barrel-2015-08-26

Retail gas prices are set to drop below $2 for first time since 2009
26 August 2015
, by MyraP. Saefong (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/2-gas-its-already-happening-in-12-states-2015-08-24


Brent crude $44.12 and U.S. crude $39.48 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: An Unprecedented Shift in The Oil-Dollar Correlation Regime
: Letsbereal August 27, 2015, 04:36:25 PM
An Unprecedented Shift in The Oil-Dollar Correlation Regime
27 August 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-27/wti-crude-surges-above-41

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08-overflow/20150827_wti3_0.jpg)


Brent crude $47.44 and U.S. crude $42.72 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: Oil Surges To $45 After Saudi Troops Invade Yemen
: Letsbereal August 28, 2015, 12:45:39 PM
Oil Surges To $45 After Saudi Troops Invade Yemen
28 August 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-28/oil-surges-after-saudi-troops-invade-yemen


Brent crude $50.22 and U.S. crude $45.25 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: OPEC pump fiction: Ecuador sells oil for less that it costs to produce
: Letsbereal August 30, 2015, 03:29:17 PM
OPEC pump fiction: Ecuador sells oil for less that it costs to produce https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1dnDAw65dPk

Aug 29, 2015 RT


Brent crude $50.05 and U.S. crude $45.22 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: WTI Crude Tumbles To $43 Handle Despite EIA Lowering Production Estimates
: Letsbereal August 31, 2015, 09:13:57 AM
WTI Crude Tumbles To $43 Handle Despite EIA Lowering Production Estimates
31 August 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-31/wti-crude-tumbles-43-handle-despite-eia-lowering-production-estimates


Italy’s Eni discovers ‘supergiant’ gas field off Egypt
30 August 2015
, by Silvia Ascarelli (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/italys-eni-discovers-supergiant-gas-field-off-egypt-2015-08-30

Maersk Oil $4.5 Billion North Sea gas project OK'd
31 August 2015
, by Kjetil Malkenes (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/maersk-oil-45-billion-north-sea-gas-project-okd-2015-08-31


Brent crude $48.55 and U.S. crude $43.96 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: Brent crude $52.60 and U.S. crude $47.68 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal August 31, 2015, 08:32:55 PM
My idea was that the economy would crash when oil prices would spike back up.

Donnow if that's happening now but it is going up for the moment.


Citi Slams Today’s Historic Oil Surge: “Another False Start, Time To Fade The Rally”
31 August 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-31/citi-slams-todays-historic-oil-surge-another-false-start-time-fade-rally


OPEC says there’s ‘no quick fix’ for low oil prices
31 August 2015
, by Myra P. Saefong (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/opec-says-theres-no-quick-fix-for-low-oil-prices-2015-08-31

OPEC, in its monthly bulletin, said that the low oil prices, brought about by higher crude production and market speculation, may translate into a “loss of much-needed revenue required from member countries’ socio-economic development” as well as a decline in investment in future capacity additions.

And “failure to invest now could mean prices in the coming years spiking to levels inconsistent with what is considered ‘reasonable’ for both producers and consumers,” it said.



Aha! So here you have it folks!

That’s why I think that if oil prices seriously start to spike up again this will be the prelude of a world wide economical crash probably in the second half of 2017, first half 2018.



Death crosses and oil spikes | Authers' Note https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KrPguHbGYMg
Aug 31, 2015  Financial Times


Brent crude $52.60 and U.S. crude $47.68 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: World's Top Oil Trader Vitol Sees Price Stuck at $40-$60 to 2016
: Letsbereal September 01, 2015, 04:22:32 AM
World's Top Oil Trader Vitol Sees Price Stuck at $40-$60 to 2016
1 September 2015
, by Javier Blas and Will Kennedy (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-01/world-s-top-oil-trader-vitol-sees-price-stuck-at-40-60-to-2016

Barclays: There's a New Oil Glut in Town
1 September 2015
, by Luke Kawa (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-31/barclays-there-s-a-new-oil-glut-in-town

Walking Oil Rigs Spur Cheaper, Quicker Drilling in Supply Glut
31 August 2015
, by David Wethe (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-31/walking-oil-rigs-spur-cheaper-quicker-drilling-in-supply-glut

Oil Caps Biggest Three-Day Gain Since 1990 as OPEC Ready to Talk
1 September 2015
, by Mark Shenk (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-30/oil-trims-gain-after-biggest-2-day-rise-since-2009-as-rigs-climb


Brent crude $52.24 and U.S. crude $47.35 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: WTI Crude Crashes 8% - Biggest Plunge Since Nov 2014's OPEC Meeting
: Letsbereal September 01, 2015, 10:32:10 AM
WTI Crude Plunges 5.25% - Biggest Drop In A Month
1 September 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-01/wti-crude-plunges-525-biggest-drop-month

WTI Crude Crashes 8% - Biggest Plunge Since Nov 2014's OPEC Meeting
1 September 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-01/wti-crude-crashes-8-biggest-plunge-nov-2014s-opec-meeting

Surprise!!! Month-end window-dressing manipulation massacred...

This is the biggest single-day drop since Nov 28 2014 - When OPEC stunned the world.



Mysterious Buying And Selling By China Distorts Mid-East Oil Price, Baffles Traders
1 September 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-01/mysterious-buying-and-selling-china-distorts-mid-east-oil-price-baffles-traders

It only baffles traders when the usual suspects lost control of the market rigging.


Brent crude $51.49 and U.S. crude $46.93 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart U.S. crude $46.60 A Barrel http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart

And falling as we speak …

U.S. crude $46.55 A Barrel Now

Like a brick …

U.S. crude $46.44 A Barrel Now

U.S. crude $46.33 A Barrel Now

U.S. crude $46.22 A Barrel Now

We broke down to the $45 handle now …

U.S. crude $45.99 A Barrel Now

U.S. crude $45.88 A Barrel Now

U.S. crude $45.77 A Barrel Now

U.S. crude $45.66 A Barrel Now

Clearly the stops are blown out now ...

U.S. crude $45.55 A Barrel Now

U.S. crude $45.33 A Barrel Now

U.S. crude $45.00 A Barrel Now
: WTI Extends Crash To 10% After API Inventories Surge Most In 5 Months
: Letsbereal September 01, 2015, 04:43:45 PM
WTI Extends Crash To 10% After API Inventories Surge Most In 5 Months
1 September 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-01/wti-tumbles-back-44-handle-after-api-inventories-surge-most-5-months


Brent crude $49.33 and U.S. crude $45.16 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart U.S. crude $44.44 A Barrel http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: Oil Triple Whammy: Inventory Build, Iran Nuke Deal, & China-Venezuela Loan
: Letsbereal September 02, 2015, 05:45:09 PM
Oil Triple Whammy: Inventory Build, Iran Nuke Deal Has Votes, & China Gives Venezuela $5 Billion Loan
2 September 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-02/oil-triple-whammy-inventory-build-iran-nuke-deal-has-votes-china-gives-venezuela-5-b


Brent crude $50.50 and U.S. crude $46.06 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: Saudi Arabia refuses to bow to pressure to cut oil production
: Letsbereal September 03, 2015, 04:21:08 AM
Saudi Arabia refuses to bow to pressure to cut oil production
1 September 2015
, by Myra P. Saefong (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/saudi-arabia-refuses-to-bow-to-pressure-to-cut-oil-production-2015-09-01

OPEC magazine op-ed that fueled oil rally baffles insiders
1 September 2015
, London (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/01/us-opec-oil-idUSKCN0R147620150901


Saudi Arabia Just Cut Crude Selling Prices To The US, Europe And Asia
3 September 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-03/saudi-arabia-just-cut-crude-selling-prices-us-europe-and-asia

The Oil-Sands Glut Is About to Get a Lot Bigger
3 September 2015
, by Jeremy Van Loon (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-03/canada-oil-sands-fork-over-billions-for-500-000-unneeded-barrels

Aramco Cuts October Crude Pricing to U.S. as Demand Declines
3 September 2015
, by Anthony Dipaola (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-03/aramco-cuts-all-october-crude-pricing-to-u-s-northwest-europe


Brent crude $50.00 and U.S. crude $46.00 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: Summer's Farewell Gift: Cheapest U.S. Gasoline Prices Since 2004
: Letsbereal September 05, 2015, 05:24:05 AM
Summer's Farewell Gift: Cheapest U.S. Gasoline Prices Since 2004
4 September 2015
, by Mario Parker (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-04/summer-s-farewell-gift-cheapest-u-s-gasoline-prices-since-2004

At an average of $2.44 a gallon, nationally, Americans are paying the cheapest price for gasoline over a Labor Day holiday weekend since 2004, according to separate forecasts from the U.S. Energy Information Administration and AAA.



Brent crude $49.69 and U.S. crude $45.69 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart U.S. crude $45.69 A Barrel Now http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: Global Economic Fears Cast Long Dark Shadow On Oil Price Rebound
: Letsbereal September 05, 2015, 06:20:54 PM
Global Economic Fears Cast Long Dark Shadow On Oil Price Rebound
5 September 2015
, by Evan Kelly (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-05/global-economic-fears-cast-long-dark-shadow-oil-price-rebound

Excerpt:

Although a slew of Canadian oil sands projects have been cancelled due to incredibly low oil prices, several large projects were already underway before the downturn.

With the costs of cancellation too high, these projects continue to move forward.


When they come online – several of which are expected by 2017 – they could add another 500,000 barrels per day in production, potentially exacerbating the glut of supplies not just in terms of global supply, but more specifically in terms of the flow of oil from Canada.

Canadian oil already trades at a discount to WTI, now at around $15 per barrel.

That means that when WTI dropped below $40 per barrel last week, Western Canada Select was nearing $20 per barrel.

With the latest rebound to the mid-$40s, WCS is only around $30 per barrel.

But with breakeven prices for many Canadian oil sands projects at $80 per barrel for WTI, oil operators in Alberta are no doubt losing sleep over their current situation.

One important caveat to remember is that unlike shale projects, Canada’s oil sands operate for decades, so the immediate downturn does not necessarily ruin project economics.

However, with a strong rebound in prices no longer expected in the near-term, high-cost oil sands projects are probably not where an investor wants to be.

Low oil prices continue to take their toll. Bank of America downgraded BP to “underperform” and warned that its dividend policy faces risks.

The EIA released a report this week that showed that there would be little effect on gasoline prices if the U.S. government lifted the ban on crude oil exports.

In fact, gasoline prices could even fall because refined product prices are linked to Brent much more than WTI, so more supplies on the international market would push down Brent prices.

The report lends credence to the legislative campaign on Capitol Hill to scrap the ban, a movement that is picking up steam.

On the other hand, although few noticed, the EIA report also said that the refining industry could lose $22 billion per year if the ban is removed.

So far, many members of Congress have been reluctant to weigh in on this issue for exactly that reason: it pits drillers against refiners, both of which are powerful political players.

But with the potential blowback from a spike in gasoline prices no longer a huge worry, the oil industry is gaining a lot of allies in its attempt to lift the ban.

However, there is an elephant in the room: the 2016 presidential election could blow up any chance of meaningful energy legislation next year.

Although several Republican candidates have come out in support of lifting export restrictions, the fear of attack ads could scare away others.

If the issue becomes bogged down in presidential politics, it could ultimately kill off the legislative push.


Bottoms Up Line: We've got us these factors keeping oil low for the foreseeable future (That's to say at least the next 2-5 years but maybe even 10):

- Demand simply underperforming supply, the world economy is collapsing, mind you!

- Iranian oil coming online and later more Iraqi, Libyan and new oil wells elsewhere even from the North Sea

- U.S. shale still pumping under hedges some till 2017

- Natural gas steadily used more and more and dirt cheap because it can be found anywhere around the globe

- Coal is still widely used and still very cheap and reliable energy source

- More sun-energy sources used despite the low oil prices

- Canadian oil sands projects coming online, like mentioned, several of which by 2017 (And what will happen with the Keystone pipeline under the next U.S. President?)


Brent crude $49.69 and U.S. crude $45.69 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart U.S. crude $45.69 A Barrel Now http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: WTI Crude Tumbles To $44 Handle (As Algos Forget US Closed)
: Letsbereal September 07, 2015, 09:50:21 PM
WTI Crude Tumbles To $44 Handle (As Algos Forget US Closed)
7 September 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-07/wti-crude-tumbles-44-handle-algos-forget-us-closed

Surging Atlantic Crude Adds to Seasonal Pressure on Prices
7 September 2015
, by Laura Hurst, Angelina Rascouet and Sherry Su (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-07/surging-atlantic-crude-adds-to-seasonal-pressure-on-oil-prices


Brent crude $47.90 and U.S. crude $44.60 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: Brent crude $47.60 and U.S. crude $44.10 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal September 09, 2015, 05:17:11 PM
Gundlach Says Oil Rally Would Be Short-Lived Due to Imbalance
8 September 2015
, by Mary Childs (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-08/gundlach-says-oil-rally-would-be-short-lived-due-to-imbalance

Oil Tumbles on Estimates U.S. Crude Supply Gained a Second Week
8 September 2015
, by Mark Shenk (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-08/oil-declines-a-third-day-as-u-s-crude-stockpiles-seen-rising


Brent crude $47.60 and U.S. crude $44.10 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: Iran Said to Cut Pricing for All October Crude to Asia
: Letsbereal September 10, 2015, 03:49:40 PM
Iran Said to Cut Pricing for All October Crude to Asia
10 September 2015
, by Anthony Dipaola (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-10/iran-said-to-cut-pricing-for-all-october-crude-to-asia

Iran Gets Ready to Sell to the World
10 September 2015
, by Matthew Philips and Golnar Motevalli (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-10/iran-gets-ready-to-sell-oil-to-the-world

Shale Producers Clobbered by Oil Rout Face Added Iran Supply
10 September 2015
, by Asjylyn Loder (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-10/shale-producers-clobbered-by-oil-rout-face-added-iran-supply


Iran Cuts Crude 'Selling Price' To Asia To 3-Year Low
10 September 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-10/iran-cuts-crude-selling-price-asia-3-year-low

WTI Tumbles On Crude's Biggest 2-Week Inventory Build In 5 Months Despite Production Tumble
10 September 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-10/wti-tumbles-crudes-biggest-2-week-build-5-months


Brent crude $48.70 and U.S. crude $45.70 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: $20 Oil? Goldman Says It's Possible
: Letsbereal September 11, 2015, 09:56:34 AM
$20 Oil? Goldman Says It's Possible
11 September 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-11/20-oil-goldman-says-its-possible

Crude Jumps After Biggest 2-Week Rig Count Decline In 4 Months
11 September 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-11/crude-jumps-after-biggest-2-week-rig-count-decline-4-months

Oil bear who won big in 2014 says prices can still fall further
11 September 2015
, by William Watts (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-bear-who-won-big-in-2014-says-prices-can-still-fall-further-2015-09-11


Brent crude $47.70 and U.S. crude $44.70 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy
Brent crude $48.70 and U.S. crude $45.07 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $48.00 and U.S. crude $45.00 A Barrel Now

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: Jeffrey Brown: To Understand The Oil Story, You Need To Understand Exports
: Letsbereal September 14, 2015, 12:02:14 AM
Jeffrey Brown: To Understand The Oil Story, You Need To Understand Exports https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2evwXpejl_M

Sep 13, 2015 Chris Martenson


Like said, we’ve got us these factors keeping oil low for the foreseeable future (That’s to say at least the next 2-5 years but maybe even 10):

– Demand simply underperforming supply, the world economy is collapsing, mind you!

– Iranian oil coming online and later more Iraqi, Libyan and new oil wells elsewhere even from the North Sea

– U.S. shale still pumping under hedges some till 2017

– Natural gas steadily used more and more and dirt cheap because it can be found anywhere around the globe

– Coal is still widely used and still very cheap and reliable energy source

– More sun-energy sources used despite the low oil prices

– Canadian oil sands projects coming online several of which by 2017



Oil Bulls Seeing Smaller Glut Increase Bets by Most Since April
13 September 2015
, by Dan Murtaugh (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-13/oil-bulls-seeing-smaller-glut-increase-bets-by-most-since-april

OPEC Trims 2016 Estimates for Rival Supplies as U.S. Oil Suffers
14 September 2015
, by Dan Murtaugh (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-14/opec-trims-2016-estimates-for-rival-supplies-as-u-s-oil-suffers

WTI Tumbles To $43 Handle As Iran 'Price Cut' Sparks Supply Surge
14 September 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-14/wti-tumbles-43-handle-iran-price-cut-sparks-supply-surge


Brent crude $47.40 and U.S. crude $44.40 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy
Brent crude $46.50 and U.S. crude $44.00 A Barrel Now

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: WTI Crude Just Plunged Back To Unchanged
: Letsbereal September 15, 2015, 05:55:53 PM
WTI Crude Just Plunged Back To Unchanged After White House Un-Supports Lifting Crude Export Ban
15 September 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-15/wti-crude-just-plunged-back-unchanged


Brent crude $46.65 and U.S. crude $44.00 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: WTI Crude Soars Above $47 As Algos Finally Read DoE Report
: Letsbereal September 16, 2015, 02:58:35 PM
WTI Crude Soars Above $47 As Algos Finally Read DoE Report
16 September 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-16/wti-crude-soars-above-47-algos-finally-read-doe-report


Has Opec’s strategy slowed US shale output? | FT Markets https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fh1LMQwuMcY
Sep 16, 2015 Financial Times

The price rout has led the leading energy forecasters to cut expectations for non-Opec crude output and increase their demand estimates for Opec oil. The FT’s Neil Hume and Anjli Raval discuss the outlook for oil production and the price of crude.


Brent crude $49.65 and U.S. crude $47.00 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: Cargo Trends Affirm Falling Oil Production
: Letsbereal September 17, 2015, 12:37:37 PM
Cargo Trends Affirm Falling Oil Production
17 September 2015
, by Nilofar Saidi (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-17/cargo-trends-affirm-falling-oil-production


Goldman Sees 15 Years of Weak Crude as $20 U.S Oil Looms
17 September 2015
, by Robert Tuttle (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-17/goldman-sees-15-years-of-weak-crude-as-20-u-s-oil-looms-on-glut

OPEC Assumes Oil Price Will Recover Gradually to $80 in 2020
17 September 2015
, by Grant Smith (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-17/opec-sees-crude-rising-to-80-by-2020-as-rival-suppliers-falter


Algo's not convinced (yet), oil went down.

Brent crude $48.70 and U.S. crude $46.80 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: Oil Drops Amid Broader Selloff as Fed Points to Global Risks
: Letsbereal September 18, 2015, 01:35:32 PM
Oil Drops Amid Broader Selloff as Fed Points to Global Risks
18 September 2015
, by Mark Shenk (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-17/oil-holds-near-47-after-federal-reserve-leaves-rates-unchanged


Brent crude $48.20 and U.S. crude $45.20 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy
Brent crude $47.60 and U.S. crude $44.60 A Barrel Now

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: This Is What Needs To Happen For Oil Prices To Stabilize
: Letsbereal September 21, 2015, 09:44:49 AM
This Is What Needs To Happen For Oil Prices To Stabilize
20 September 2015
, by Dan Doyle (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-20/what-needs-happen-oil-prices-stabilize

Can The Saudi Economy Resist "Much Lower For Much Longer"?
20 September 2015
, by Dalan McEndree (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-21/can-saudi-economy-resist-much-lower-much-longer


Brent crude $48.50 and U.S. crude $46.00 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: Brent crude $49.30 and U.S. crude $46.60 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal September 22, 2015, 09:17:53 PM
WTI Crude Pops After API Reports Another Bigger-Than-Expected Inventory Draw
22 September 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-22/wti-crude-pops-after-api-reports-another-bigger-expected-inventory-draw

Petrobras Sees ‘Great Wave’ of $100-Oil Never Coming Back
22 September 2015
, by Yasmine Batista and Juan Pablo Spinetto (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-22/petrobras-sees-great-wave-of-100-oil-never-coming-back


Brent crude $49.30 and U.S. crude $46.60 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy
Brent crude $48.85 and U.S. crude $46.30 A Barrel Now

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: WTI Crude Crumbles To Test $44 Handle As Algos Run Stops, Read DOE Report
: Letsbereal September 23, 2015, 01:36:10 PM
WTI Crude Crumbles To Test $44 Handle As Algos Run Stops, Read DOE Report
23 September 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-23/wti-crude-crumbles-test-44-handle-algos-run-stops-read-doe-report

WTI Rises On Inventory Draw Despite Biggest Production Rise In 8 Weeks
23 September 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-23/wti-rises-inventory-draw-despite-biggest-production-rise-8-weeks

Total Cuts Oil Output Target as Prices Expected to Stay Low
23 September 2015
, by Javier Blas (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-23/total-cuts-oil-output-target-as-low-prices-expected-to-persist

Oil unlikely to return to $100 a barrel for years
23 September 2015
, by Myra P. Saefong (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-unlikely-to-return-to-100-a-barrel-for-years-2015-09-23


Brent crude $48.00 and U.S. crude $45.00 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy
Brent crude $47.80 and U.S. crude $44.80 A Barrel Now

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: Crude Shrugs As US Oil Rig Count Declines For 4th Week To 10-Week Lows
: Letsbereal September 25, 2015, 06:59:45 PM
Crude Shrugs As US Oil Rig Count Declines For 4th Week To 10-Week Lows
25 September 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-25/crude-shrugs-us-oil-rig-count-declines-4th-week-10-week-lows


Brent crude $48.70 and U.S. crude $45.70 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: Crude Tumbles After API Reports Surprisingly Large Inventory Build
: Letsbereal September 29, 2015, 11:59:03 PM
Crude Tumbles After API Reports Surprisingly Large Inventory Build
29 September 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-29/crude-tumbles-after-api-reports-surprisingly-large-inventory-build


Brent crude $47.70 and U.S. crude $44.70 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: Saudi Arabia cuts oil prices amid OPEC price war
: Letsbereal October 04, 2015, 08:22:46 PM
Saudi Arabia cuts oil prices amid OPEC price war
4 october 2015
, by Benoit Faucon (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/saudi-arabia-cuts-oil-prices-amid-opec-price-war-2015-10-04-10485293


Brent crude $47.85 and U.S. crude $45.44 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: Brent crude $49.26 and U.S. crude $46.26 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal October 05, 2015, 05:59:59 PM
Brent crude $49.26 and U.S. crude $46.26 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: Oil Spikes To Highest In Over A Month, As Syria Proxy War Jitters Escalate
: Letsbereal October 06, 2015, 11:33:21 AM
Oil Spikes To Highest In Over A Month, As Syria Proxy War Jitters Escalate
6 October 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-06/oil-spikes-highest-over-month-syria-proxy-war-jitters-escalate


Like said by me a long time ago, watch for an oil spike for an economical hard crash to happen …

Brent crude $51.50 and U.S. crude $48.20 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy
Brent crude $52.00 and U.S. crude $48.70 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $52.50 and U.S. crude $49.50 A Barrel Now

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: This Month Could Make Or Break The Oil Markets
: Letsbereal October 07, 2015, 10:25:39 AM
This Month Could Make Or Break The Oil Markets
7 October 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-07/month-could-make-or-break-oil-markets


Brent crude $53.00 and U.S. crude $49.50 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: Total Collapse In Interest For Oil Assets
: Letsbereal October 07, 2015, 03:28:29 PM
Total Collapse In Interest For Oil Assets: Brazil Oil Auction Is Near Complete Failure
7 October 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-07/total-collapse-interest-oil-assets-brazil-oil-auction-near-complete-failure

Crude Plunges After Bigger-Than-Expected Inventory Build & Production Surge
7 October 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-07/crude-plunges-after-bigger-expected-inventory-build-production-surge


Brent crude $51.40 and U.S. crude $47.80 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: Gartman vs Goldman: "Oil Rally To Fade" Warns Blankfein's Bank
: Letsbereal October 08, 2015, 10:01:21 AM
Gartman vs Goldman: "Oil Rally To Fade" Warns Blankfein's Bank
8 October 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-08/gartman-vs-goldman-oil-rally-fade-warns-blankfeins-bank


Brent crude $52.20 and U.S. crude $48.50 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: WTI Crude Tops $50, Energy Stocks Soar To Biggest Week Since 2008
: Letsbereal October 09, 2015, 09:27:24 AM
WTI Crude Tops $50, Energy Stocks Soar To Biggest Week Since 2008 (But Credit Ain't Buying It)
9 October 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-09/wti-crude-tops-50-energy-stocks-soar-biggest-week-2008-credit-aint-buying-it


Brent crude $53.00 and U.S. crude $50.00 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: Oil Stumbles Below $49 As Goldman Warns "Lower For Even Longer"
: Letsbereal October 12, 2015, 09:54:46 AM
Oil Stumbles Below $49 As Goldman Warns "Lower For Even Longer"
12 October 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-12/oil-stumbles-below-49-goldman-warns-lower-even-longer

Oil futures turn lower as OPEC keeps pumping
12 October 2015
, by Sara Sjolin & Jenny W. Hsu (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-rise-on-us-rig-count-declines-2015-10-12

Oil futures slump to largest single-day drop since Sept. 1
12 October 2015
, by Sara Sjolin & Jenny W. Hsu (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-rise-on-us-rig-count-declines-2015-10-12

Why Oil Is Tumbling: Oil Hedges Were Just Rolled Over
12 October 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-12/producer-hedging-scramble-leads-oil-tumble

End result: oil has tumbled, as suddenly the specter of even greater production at lower prices is all too real, and one which will force Saudi Arabia to pump even more to put the higher-cost producers, those who just lowered their production costs indefinitely, out of business.

In other words: the race to the proverbial bottom, which Saudi seemed to be winning, has just been reset.



Brent crude $52.50 and U.S. crude $49.50 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy
Brent crude $51.50 and U.S. crude $48.50 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $50.00 and U.S. crude $47.00 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $50.50 and U.S. crude $47.50 A Barrel Now

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: Crude Plunges To 2-Week Lows On Biggest Crude Inventory Build In Over 6 Months
: Letsbereal October 15, 2015, 11:20:23 AM
DOE Confirms Biggest Crude Inventory Build In Over 6 Months As Production Drops To 11-Month Lows
15 October 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-15/doe-confirms-biggest-crude-inventory-build-over-6-months-highest-seasonal-stocks-rec


Brent crude $48.50 and U.S. crude $45.50 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy
Brent crude $49.00 and U.S. crude $47.00 A Barrel Now

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: US Oil Rig Count Tumbles 7th Straight Week, Lowest Since July 2010
: Letsbereal October 16, 2015, 01:48:19 PM
US Oil Rig Count Tumbles 7th Straight Week, Lowest Since July 2010
16 October 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-16/us-oil-rig-count-tumbles-7th-straight-week-lowest-july-2010


Brent crude $50.50 and U.S. crude $47.50 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: Saudi Crude Stockpiles at Record High Amid Quest to Keep Share
: Letsbereal October 18, 2015, 04:01:42 PM
Saudi Crude Stockpiles at Record High Amid Quest to Keep Share
18 October 2015
, by Wael Mahdi (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-18/saudi-crude-stockpiles-at-record-high-in-august-as-exports-fell

- Exports fall as output stays above 10 million barrels a day

- Nation leading OPEC to defend market share as prices fall



Saudis Poke The Russian Bear, Start Oil War In Eastern Europe
18 October 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-18/saudis-poke-russian-bear-start-oil-war-eastern-europe


Brent crude $50.50 and U.S. crude $47.50 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: Crude & Copper Crumbling After China Reality Sinks In
: Letsbereal October 19, 2015, 08:43:14 AM
Crude & Copper Crumbling After China Reality Sinks In
19 October 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-19/crude-copper-crumbling-after-china-reality-sinks

Oil prices slip on Chinese demand concerns, weak Saudi exports
19 October 2015
, by Karolin Schaps - London (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/19/us-global-oil-idUSKCN0SD03T20151019

Saudi's China Oil Play Has No One Over a Barrel: David Fickling
19 October 2015
, by David Fickling (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-19/saudi-s-china-oil-play-has-no-one-over-a-barrel-david-fickling

Iran Sees No OPEC Output Change as Country Seeks $70-$80 Oil
19 October 2015
, by Anthony Dipaola, Golnar Motevalli and Hashem Kalantari (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-19/iran-urges-opec-to-cut-oil-output-to-lift-prices-to-70-8

OPEC Brings Oil Price War Home in Pursuit of Asia's Cash
19 October 2015
, by Serene Cheong (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-19/opec-brings-oil-price-war-home-in-pursuit-of-asia-s-cash

Oil Market Showdown: Can Russia Outlast The Saudis?
19 October 2015
, by Dalan McEndree (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-19/oil-market-showdown-can-russia-outlast-saudis

WTI Crude Tumbles To $45 Handle
19 October 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-19/wti-crude-tumbles-45-handle


In the past only the prospect of war in the Middle East would rise oil prices. Not so today, think about that.

Brent crude $49.50 and U.S. crude $46.50 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy
Brent crude $49.00 and U.S. crude $46.00 A Barrel Now

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: Crude Crumbles Back To $45 Handle - Down 6% From China GDP
: Letsbereal October 20, 2015, 01:34:22 PM
Crude Crumbles Back To $45 Handle - Down 6% From China GDP
20 October 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-20/crude-crumbles-back-45-handle-down-6-china-gdp

Crude Tumbles As API Reports Another Huge Inventory Build
20 October 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-20/crude-tumbles-api-reports-another-huge-inventory-build


Brent crude $48.50 and U.S. crude $45.50 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: Crude Slammed To $44 Handle After Inventory Surges Most In 7 Months
: Letsbereal October 21, 2015, 12:21:17 PM
Crude Slammed To $44 Handle After Inventory Surges Most In 7 Months
21 October 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-21/crude-slammed-44-handle-after-inventory-surges-most-7-months

New Oil Order: Russia Again Tops Saudi Arabia As China's Largest Crude Supplier
21 October 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-21/new-oil-order-russia-again-tops-saudi-arabia-chinas-largest-crude-supplier


Brent crude $48.00 and U.S. crude $45.00 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: WTI Crude Plunges Back Towards $44 Handle, Stocks Don't Care At All
: Letsbereal October 22, 2015, 06:12:03 PM
WTI Crude Plunges Back Towards $44 Handle, Stocks Don't Care At All
22 October 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-22/wti-crude-plunges-back-towards-44-handle-stocks-dont-care-all



Brent crude $48.30 and U.S. crude $45.30 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: Goldman Warns Distillate Storage "Too Full For Comfort"
: Letsbereal October 26, 2015, 05:32:55 PM
Operational & Financial Stress Unavoidable For Energy Names, Goldman Warns Distillate Storage "Too Full For Comfort"
26 October 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-26/operational-financial-stress-unavoidable-energy-names-goldman-warns-distillate-stora


Brent crude $47.30 and U.S. crude $43.70 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: US Equities Give Up China Rate Cut Gains As Crude Plunges To $42 Handle
: Letsbereal October 27, 2015, 04:11:09 PM
US Equities Give Up China Rate Cut Gains As Crude Plunges To $42 Handle
27 October 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-27/recession-reality-bites-sends-stocks-crude-bond-yields-lower

NatGas Tanks Under $2, Crude Pushes 2-Month Lows After US SPR Decision & BP, Saudi Comments
27 October 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-27/natgas-tanks-under-2-crude-pushes-2-month-lows-after-us-spr-decision-bp-saudi-commen


Brent crude $47.00 and U.S. crude $43.00 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: WTI Extends Gains - Tops $45 - On Large Cushing Inventory Draw
: Letsbereal October 29, 2015, 02:59:34 AM
WTI Extends Gains - Tops $45 - On Large Cushing Inventory Draw
28 October 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-28/wti-extends-gains-tops-45-large-cushing-inventory-draw

Crude "Tipping Point" Arrives: China Runs Out Of Space To Store Oil
28 October 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-28/crude-tipping-point-arrives-china-runs-out-space-store-oil


Brent crude $48.60 and U.S. crude $45.60 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: 'Traders' Panic-Buy WTI Crude After Disappointing GDP
: Letsbereal October 29, 2015, 08:30:07 PM
'Traders' Panic-Buy WTI Crude After Disappointing GDP
29 October 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-29/traders-panic-buy-wti-crude-after-disappointing-gdp


Brent crude $48.60 and U.S. crude $45.60 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: WTI Extends Gains After US Oil Rig Count Plunges For 9th Week
: Letsbereal October 30, 2015, 05:39:42 PM
WTI Extends Gains After US Oil Rig Count Plunges For 9th Week
30 October 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-30/wti-extends-gains-after-us-oil-rig-count-plunges-9th-week


Brent crude $49.40 and U.S. crude $46.40 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: WTI Crude Gives Up Friday's Surge Gains, Back To $45 Handle
: Letsbereal November 02, 2015, 11:05:32 AM
WTI Crude Gives Up Friday's Surge Gains, Back To $45 Handle, Amid China Storage, Tanker Fears
2 November 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-02/wti-crude-gives-fridays-surge-gains-back-45-handle-amid-china-storage-tanker-fears


Brent crude $49.40 and U.S. crude $46.40 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: WTI Crude Algo Buying Panic Takes Out Yesterday's Highs
: Letsbereal November 03, 2015, 12:06:30 PM
WTI Crude Algo Buying Panic Takes Out Yesterday's Highs
3 November 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-03/wti-crude-algo-buying-panic-takes-out-yesterdays-highs

WTI Crude Soars Above $48, Highest In 4 Weeks
3 November 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-03/wti-crude-soars-above-48-highest-4-weeks

API Reports Larger-Than-Expected Total Crude Inventory Build For 6th Consecutive Week, Cushing Draw
3 November 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-03/api-reports-larger-expected-total-crude-inventory-build-6th-consecutive-week-cushing


Brent crude $49.85 and U.S. crude $47.35 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy
Brent crude $50.50 and U.S. crude $47.80 A Barrel Now

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: Crude Prices Pump'n'Dump After 6th Consecutive Inventory Build & Production
: Letsbereal November 04, 2015, 11:06:47 AM
Crude Prices Pump'n'Dump After 6th Consecutive Inventory Build & Surge In Production
4 November 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-04/crude-prices-jump-despite-6th-consecutive-inventory-build-surge-production

OPEC’s lost sway: U.S. boasts record surplus with oil cartel
4 November 2015
, by Jeffry Bartash (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/opecs-lost-sway-us-boasts-record-surplus-with-oil-cartel-2015-11-04

Exclusive: OPEC confidential report sees market share squeeze to 2019
4 November 2015
, (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/04/us-opec-report-idUSKCN0ST20620151104

Factbox: U.S. oil and gas majors cut capex, but production resilient
4 November 2015
, (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/04/us-oil-price-capex-usa-factbox-idUSKCN0ST2RS20151104

Factbox: U.S. oil producers book massive impairment charges
4 November 2015
, (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/04/us-oil-price-assetwritedown-usa-factbox-idUSKCN0ST2NI20151104


Brent crude $50.00 and U.S. crude $47.00 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy
Brent crude $48.50 and U.S. crude $46.50 A Barrel Now

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: WTI Crude Tumbles To $45 Handle - Erases Post-FOMC Euphoria
: Letsbereal November 05, 2015, 09:36:18 AM
WTI Crude Tumbles To $45 Handle - Erases Post-FOMC Euphoria
5 November 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-05/wti-crude-tumbles-45-handle-erases-post-fomc-euphoria

Saudis Bring Oil War To Europe With Largest Price Discount Since 2009
5 November 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-05/saudis-bring-oil-war-europe-largest-price-discount-2009

OPEC, Russia oil battle heats up as Sweden buys Saudi crude
5 November 2015
, London (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/05/us-sweden-crude-saudi-idUSKCN0SU1M520151105


Brent crude $48.00 and U.S. crude $46.00 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy
Brent crude $48.00 and U.S. crude $45.00 A Barrel Now

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: Crude Holds Losses Despite 10th Consecutive Weekly Decline In Rig Count
: Letsbereal November 06, 2015, 08:31:36 PM
Crude Holds Losses Despite 10th Consecutive Weekly Decline In Rig Count
6 November 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-06/crude-holds-losses-despite-10th-consecutive-weekly-decline-rig-count


Brent crude $47.50 and U.S. crude $44.50 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: Kuwait Sees Oil Glut of Up to Five Years on Increasing Supply
: Letsbereal November 07, 2015, 12:21:59 PM
Kuwait Sees Oil Glut of Up to Five Years on Increasing Supply
7 November 2015
, by Mohammed Sergie (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-07/kuwait-sees-oil-glut-of-up-to-five-years-on-increasing-supply

(http://www.alhambrapartners.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/ABOOK-Nov-2015-Dollar-WTI-Production.jpg)

Source (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-08/what-can-yellen-really-do)


Brent crude $47.30 and U.S. crude $44.30 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: WTI Crude Crushed To $43 Handle "Flash-Crash" Lows After Genscape Data
: Letsbereal November 09, 2015, 12:23:37 PM
WTI Crude Crushed To $43 Handle "Flash-Crash" Lows After Genscape Data
9 November 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-09/wti-crude-crushed-43-handle-flash-crash-lows-after-genscape-data

The Oil Wars Heat Up: Russia, Iraq Steal Saudi Market Share While Oman Blasts OPEC As "Irresponsible"
9 November 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-09/oil-wars-heat-russia-iraq-steal-saudi-market-share-while-oman-blasts-opec-irresponsi

OPEC’s strategy could keep Brent at $50 for years: IEA
9 November 2015
, by Sarah Kent & Benoît Faucon (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/opecs-strategy-could-backfire-keep-prices-low-iea-2015-11-09


Brent crude $47.30 and U.S. crude $43.80 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: Oil prices waver after IEA warns about OPEC’s strategy
: Letsbereal November 10, 2015, 07:31:03 AM
Oil prices waver after IEA warns about OPEC’s strategy
10 November 2015
, by Jenny W. Hsu & Georgi Kantchev (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crude-rises-but-analyst-struggle-to-see-positive-catalysts-2015-11-10

What the latest EIA report tells us about shale-oil output
10 November 2015
, by Myra P. Saefong (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-latest-eia-report-tells-us-about-shale-oil-output-2015-11-10

WTI Tumbles To $43 Handle After API Confirms Huge Inventory Build
10 November 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-10/wti-tumbles-43-handle-after-api-confirms-huge-inventory-build

API data said to show weekly crude supplies up 6.3 million barrels
10 November 2015
, by Myra P. Saefong (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/api-data-said-to-show-weekly-crude-supplies-up-63-million-barrels-2015-11-10


Brent crude $47.00 and U.S. crude $44.00 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy
Brent crude $47.00 and U.S. crude $43.60 A Barrel Now

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: The Biggest Threat To Oil Prices: 2-Mile Long Stretch Of Iraq Oil Tankers
: Letsbereal November 11, 2015, 12:22:08 PM
The Biggest Threat To Oil Prices: 2-Mile Long Stretch Of Iraq Oil Tankers Headed For The U.S.
11 November 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-11/biggest-threat-oil-prices-2-mile-long-stretch-iraq-oil-tankers-headed-us

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/11/20151111_crude1_0.jpg)

Crude Carnages To $42 Handle - Lowest Since 'Andy Hall' August Meltup
11 November 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-11/crude-carnages-42-handle-lowest-andy-hall-august-meltup

Oil price to rise only gradually to $80 by 2020: IEA
11 November 2015
, by Amanda Cooper - London (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/11/us-iea-oil-idUSKCN0SZ02Y20151111

OPEC Challenges Shale Afresh as Iraq Crude Floods U.S. Market
11 November 2015
, by Naomi Christie (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-11/opec-challenges-shale-afresh-as-iraq-crude-floods-gulf-of-mexico


Brent crude $46.00 and U.S. crude $43.00 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy
Brent crude $45.70 and U.S. crude $42.70 A Barrel Now

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: Crude Turmoils After DOE Confirms Surprise Inventory Build & Production Increase
: Letsbereal November 12, 2015, 02:59:20 PM
Crude Turmoils After DOE Confirms Surprise Inventory Build & Production Increase
12 November 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-12/crude-turmoils-after-doe-confirms-surprise-inventory-build-production-increase

How OPEC Just Crushed Oil With One Chart
12 November 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-12/how-opec-just-crushed-oil-one-chart

Something Very Strange Is Taking Place Off The Coast Of Galveston, TX
12 November 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-12/something-very-strange-taking-place-coast-galveston

Oil Majors Don't Share OPEC's Optimism On Oil Prices In 2016
12 November 2015
, by Andy Tully (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-12/oil-majors-dont-share-opecs-optimism-oil-prices-2016


Oil drops below $42 as U.S. supplies climb a 7th straight week
12 November 2015
, by Myra P. Saefong (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-rise-but-a-struggle-ahead-as-inventory-data-awaits-2015-11-12

Oil falls further after EIA reports 4.2 million-barrel rise in crude supplies
12 November 2015
, by Myra P. Saefong (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-falls-further-after-eia-reports-42-million-barrel-rise-in-crude-supplies-2015-11-12

Oil slumps 4 percent, nears new six-year low as glut persists
12 November 2015
, by Barani Krishnan - New York (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/12/us-global-oil-idUSKCN0T102H20151112


Russia’s Oil Rivalry With Saudis Masks the Bigger Iranian Threat
12 November 2015
, by Dina Khrennikova (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-12/russia-s-oil-rivalry-with-saudis-masks-the-bigger-iranian-threat

OPEC Says Oil-Inventory Glut Is Biggest in at Least a Decade
12 November 2015
, by Grant Smith (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-12/opec-says-oil-inventory-surplus-is-biggest-in-at-least-a-decade


Brent crude $44.00 and U.S. crude $41.00 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: U.S. oil falls to over two-month low on swelling inventories
: Letsbereal November 13, 2015, 03:35:19 PM
U.S. oil falls to over two-month low on swelling inventories
13 November 2015
, by Barani Krishnan - New York (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/13/us-global-oil-idUSKCN0T201520151113

Oil down again; glut forces biggest weekly loss in eight months
13 November 2015
, by Barani Krishnan - New York (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/13/us-global-oil-idUSKCN0T201520151113


Crude Slips As US Oil Rig Count Rises For First Time In 3 Months
13 November 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-13/crude-slips-us-oil-rig-count-rises-first-time-3-months

WTI Crude Tumbles To $40 Handle, Fastest Plunge Since December 2014
13 November 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-13/wti-crude-tumbles-40-handle-fastest-plunge-december-2014

"Oil Bears May Not Hibernate" As Inventories Swell To Record 3 Billion Barrels
13 November 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-13/oil-bears-may-not-hibernate-inventories-swell-record-3-billion-barrels


Brent crude $43.50 and U.S. crude $40.50 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: War Is Bullish: Stocks, Oil Surge Off Paris Panic Lows After Dismal Eco. Data
: Letsbereal November 16, 2015, 04:42:27 PM
Oil Weakness Accelerates, Slams OPEC Export Price Below $40 For First Time Since Feb 2009
16 November 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-16/oil-weakness-accelerates-slams-opec-export-price-below-40-first-time-feb-2009

Algos Gone Wild - WTI Crude Storms Higher Having Run Low Stops
16 November 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-16/algos-gone-wild-wti-crude-storms-higher-having-run-low-stops

War Is Bullish: Stocks, Oil Surge Off Paris Panic Lows After Dismal Economic Data
16 November 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-16/war-bullish-stocks-oil-surge-paris-panic-lows-after-dismal-economic-data

Saudis Planning For A War Of Attrition In Europe With Russia's Oil Industry
16 November 2015
, by Nick Cunningham (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-16/saudis-planning-war-attrition-europe-russias-oil-industry

Black Market For Black Gold Ignites As Jobless Roughnecks Resort To Oil Theft
16 November 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-16/black-market-black-gold-ignites-jobless-roughnecks-resort-oil-theft

Global Stocks Soar As Dollar Spot Index Hits Record High; Oil Declines
16 November 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-17/global-stocks-soar-dollar-spot-index-hits-record-high-oil-declines

The Saudis Are Stumbling (And They May Take The Middle-East Down With Them)
16 November 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-16/saudis-are-stumbling-and-they-may-take-middle-east-down-them


Minister says Russia oil output increasing: report
16 November 2015
, by Andrey Ostroukh (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/minister-says-russia-oil-output-increasing-report-2015-11-16


Brent crude $45.00 and U.S. crude $42.00 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: Oil Declines
: Letsbereal November 17, 2015, 07:25:43 AM
Beware Buying Crude: Oil Storage Is "Increasingly Full"
17 November 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-17/land-storage-increasingly-full-sell-crude-rally

Oil Ain't Buying It
17 November 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-17/oil-aint-buying-it

Future Of Brazil's Oil Industry In Serious Doubt
17 November 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-17/future-brazils-oil-industry-serious-doubt

Crude Jumps After API Reports Modest Inventory Draw (First In 8 Weeks) Despite Another Big Build At Cushing
17 November 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-17/crude-jumps-after-api-reports-modest-inventory-draw-first-8-weeks-despite-another-bi

Oil Approaching $40 Deepens Investor Pessimism on Recovery
17 November 2015
, by Mark Shenk (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-17/oil-approaching-40-deepens-investor-pessimism-on-recovery


Brent crude $44.30 and U.S. crude $41.30 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy
Brent crude $44.00 and U.S. crude $41.00 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $43.70 and U.S. crude $40.70 A Barrel Now
Brent crude $44.00 and U.S. crude $41.00 A Barrel Now

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: WTI Crude Plunges Below $40 - Erases Post-Paris Gains
: Letsbereal November 18, 2015, 06:17:04 PM
WTI Crude Plunges Below $40 - Erases Post-Paris Gains
18 November 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-18/wti-crude-plunges-below-40-erases-post-paris-gains

Oil Trades Near Two-Month Low After U.S. Crude Supplies Increase
18 November 2015
, by Mark Shenk (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-18/oil-halts-slide-near-two-month-low-as-u-s-stockpiles-decline

OPEC Targets U.S. Shale, But Hits Canada Instead
18 November 2015
, by Rebecca Penty and Jeremy Van Loon (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-18/opec-threatened-by-u-s-shale-hits-canada-harder-in-price-fight


Brent crude $44.00 and U.S. crude $41.00 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: WTI Tumbles Back Below $40, Goldman Warns Risk Of "Sharp Leg Lower"
: Letsbereal November 19, 2015, 12:23:18 PM
WTI Tumbles Back Below $40, Goldman Warns Risk Of "Sharp Leg Lower"
19 November 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-19/wti-tumbles-back-below-40-goldman-warns-risk-sharp-leg-lower

Saudi Oil Minister Says OPEC With Others to Stabilize Market
19 November 2015
, by Wael Mahdi (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-19/saudi-oil-minister-says-opec-with-others-to-stabilize-market


Brent crude $44.00 and U.S. crude $40.00 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: Re: Brent crude $44.00 and U.S. crude $40.00 A Barrel Now
: larsonstdoc November 19, 2015, 01:20:04 PM


  So Letsbereal,  I heard a guy on Jeff Rense radio state that America is not allowed to sell it's oil to foreign nations including the EU.  Because of that, the price of crude is going down, down down.  He also said that the Texas oil barons are capping their wells.  Is that a true statement?  PLEASE GIVE ME YOUR THOUGHTS.  Thank you.
: Re: Brent crude $44.00 and U.S. crude $40.00 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal November 19, 2015, 04:17:08 PM

  So Letsbereal,  I heard a guy on Jeff Rense radio state that America is not allowed to sell it's oil to foreign nations including the EU.  Because of that, the price of crude is going down, down down.  He also said that the Texas oil barons are capping their wells.  Is that a true statement?  PLEASE GIVE ME YOUR THOUGHTS.  Thank you.

It is true that the US is prohibited to export their oil but the US still is a net importer of oil. I should think that if the US was allowed to export oil, prices would go down more not up since the global glut of oil would increase.

I think that it is true that Texas oil wells are capped as far as they have no hedges on and are unprofitable at current oil prices. Some oil wells may still have hedges on and will be taken out of business as soon as these hedges expire. Banks will be reluctant to extend these hedges now oil prices have been low for so long and they already are losing huge sums of money. That will leave only the most easy to get oil in business and the wells which still have hedges on them.

Since we depend on numbers given to us by the oil industry it's always difficult to say what exactly is happening in that business but we can see the general direction.

I think that oil will stay low for much longer than anticipated (5 to 10 years) also because Iran is now coming on the oil market and the economies are still going down.

See: Extending Low Oil Prices Will Kick the U.S. 'growth' Economy right in the Nuts http://forum.prisonplanet.com/index.php?topic=264446.msg1579196#msg1579196

Texan Turmoil - Visualizing The Growing (& Shrinking) Local Economies Across America
18 November 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-18/texan-turmoil-visualizing-growing-shrinking-local-economies-across-america

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/11-overflow/20151118_gs_0.jpg)
: Re: Brent crude $44.00 and U.S. crude $40.00 A Barrel Now
: larsonstdoc November 19, 2015, 04:45:44 PM
^^^^^^^

  Thank you for your info Letsbereal.
: Brent up 1% on short-covering; U.S. crude down, just above $40
: Letsbereal November 21, 2015, 04:12:20 AM
Brent up 1 percent on short-covering; U.S. crude down, just above $40
20 November 2015
, by Barani Krishnan - New York (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/20/us-global-oil-idUSKCN0T901X20151120

Spot U.S. crude's discount to second month blows out amid stockpile worries
20 November 2015
, (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/20/us-crude-contango-idUSKCN0T92Q820151120

Iran says does not need OPEC permission to increase oil production
21 November 2015
, Dubai (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/21/iran-gas-summit-opec-idUSL8N13G08Z20151121

Oil Patch Problems: Rigs Down 60%, Production Down 3%, $40-$50 Price Doesn't Work
21 November 2015
, by Mike Shedlock (MISH'S Global Economic Trend Analysis)
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.nl/2015/11/oil-patch-problems-rigs-down-60.html


Brent crude $44.50 and U.S. crude $41.50 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: Amazing low oil prices with so much turmoil in the Middle-East.
: Letsbereal November 23, 2015, 08:10:57 AM
Amazing low oil prices with so much turmoil in the Middle-East :o

In the past an oil pipeline leak in Timbuktu would spike oil prices ::)


Oil Tumbles Back Into Red As Saudi "Whatever It Takes" Jawboning Is Not Enough
23 November 2015
, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-23/oil-tumbles-back-red-saudi-whatever-it-takes-jawboning-not-enough


Brent crude $44.50 and U.S. crude $41.50 A Barrel Now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Crude Oil Streaming Chart http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
: Brent crude $46.00 and U.S. crude $43.00 A Barrel Now
: Letsbereal November 24, 2015, 02:56:29 PM
Indian oil imports from AsiaPac spike in Oct as refiners tap new routes
24 November 2015
, by Nidhi Verma and Jacob Gronholt-Pedersen - New Delhi/Singapore (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/24/india-oil-imports-idUSL3N13F2QU20151124

* India imports from AsiaPac more than double from Sept
* Malaysia cutting spot premiums to attract buyers -BPCL
* Malaysian supply to India highest in six months
* Bulk of oil still