FEDERATION OF AMERICAN SCIENTISTS

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Strategic Security Project

The Strategic Security Program of the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) seeks to reduce the threat to the United States, and to the world, from biological, conventional and nuclear weapons. The U.S. is confronting a broad range of threats in a security environment that has changed dramatically since the end of the Cold War.

Endorsed by 67 Nobel Laureates in chemistry, economics, medicine, and physics, FAS is uniquely qualified to bring a scientific perspective to public policy. Through education of Congress, the public, and the press, the Strategic Security Program provides strong, timely, nonpartisan technical analysis to complex global security issues.
Last year, FAS helped defeat a measure in Congress to fund the Robust Nuclear Earth Penetrator (RNEP) or “bunker buster.” The administration argued that the RNEP would eliminate deep buried targets invulnerable to current conventional weapons. Based on Norwegian and Swiss empirical data, FAS developed quantitative cost models for tunneling in hard rock, compared bomb blast ranges with depths where rock pressure required specialized techniques that would sharply increase cost, and showed that any nation with moderate technical sophistication could dig deep enough to negate the effect of the RNEP. These findings were published in Earth Penetrating Nuclear Warheads against Deep Targets: Concepts, Countermeasures, and Consequences.

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Learning Federation

The United States faces a crisis of undereducation in formal schooling and workforce training. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has said that Americans' lack of skills is holding back economic growth.

To address this crisis, the FAS set up the Learning Federation to lay out a path whereby today's learning enterprises can take advantage of information technology's potential within a decade. FAS President Henry Kelly has said: "Learning enterprises need to adapt to the needs of young and old, citizens and recent immigrants." Only by appropriate new uses of science and technology will individuals, in our increasingly diverse society, get the quality education and training they need.




All Rights Reserved 2005 - Federation of American Scientists

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This archive includes timely and interesting materials on topics of current interest. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this archive are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federation of American Scientists.
Review of Psychological Operations: Lessons Learned from Recent Operational Experience by Christopher J. Lamb, National Defense University Press, September 2005
DCI Robert M. Gates on CIA and Openness, speech to the Oklahoma Press Association, February 21, 1992
Further Information Regarding US Government Attribution of a Mobile Biological Production Capacity by Iraq (cont'd) by Milton Leitenberg, part 3 of 3, August 2006
Further Information Regarding US Government Attribution of a Mobile Biological Production Capacity by Iraq by Milton Leitenberg, part 2 of 3, August 2006
Targeted Killing as an Element of U.S. Foreign Policy in the War on Terror by Major Matthew J. Machon, US Army School of Advanced Military Studies, Fort Leavenworth, May 2006
Information Operations in Operations Enduring Freedom and Iraqi Freedom - What Went Wrong? by Major Joseph L. Cox, US Army School of Advanced Military Studies, Fort Leavenworth, May 2006
Developing a Reliable Methodology for Assessing the Computer Network Operations Threat of Iran by Jason P. Patterson and Matthew N. Smith, Naval Postgraduate School, September 2005
Developing a Reliable Methodology for Assessing the Computer Network Operations Threat of North Korea by Christopher Brown, Naval Postgraduate School, September 2004
Unresolved Questions Regarding US Government Attribution of a Mobile Biological Production Capacity by Iraq by Milton Leitenberg, part 1 of 3, June 2006
Assisting People to Become Independent Learners in the Analysis of Intelligence by Peter L. Pirolli, Palo Alto Research Center, Inc., February 2006
Intelligence Analysis in Theater Joint Intelligence Centers: An Experiment in Applying Structured Methods by MSgt Robert D. Folker, Jr. (USAF), Joint Military Intelligence College, January 2000
The A.Q. Khan Network: Causes and Implications by Christopher O. Clary, Master's Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School, December 2005
An Analysis of the Systemic Security Weaknesses of the U.S. Navy Fleet Broadcasting System, 1967-1974, as Exploited by CWO John Walker by Maj. Laura J. Heath, Master's Thesis, U.S. Army Command and General Staff College, June 2005
Online Islamic Organizations and Measuring Web Effectiveness by Minji Daniels, Master's Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School, December 2004
Deception 101 -- A Primer on Deception by Joseph W. Caddell, U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute, December 2004
Link Analysis Workbench, SRI International, Air Force Research Laboratory, September 2004 (1.3 MB PDF file)
Some Human Factors in Codebreaking by Christine Large, originally presented at a symposium on "The Role of Humans in Intelligent and Automated Systems," held in Warsaw, Poland, October 2002
Reliable and Relevant National Communications System by Lt. Col. Timothy L. Lake, US Army War College research paper, May 2004
Advanced Command, Control, Communications & Intelligence (C3I) Systems Analysis and Trade-Offs, CACI Technologies, Incorporated, March 2004
Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance in Support of Operation Iraqi Freedom: Challenges for Rapid Maneuvers and Joint C4ISR Integration and Interoperability by Lt. Com. Carl M. Bradley, USN, Naval War College, February 9, 2004
Insight Into Foreign Thoughtworlds for National Security Decision Makers by J.W. Barnett, Institute for Defense Analyses, January 2004
Resume of a CIA SIGINT Operations Officer, 1965-1993
Some-Time, Part-Time and One-time Terrorism by M.E. Bowman, Intelligencer, Association of Former Intelligence Officers, Winter/Spring 2003
Interviewing With An Intelligence Agency, a first-person narrative of an applicant interviewing and going through the clearance process with the National Security Agency, November 2003, updated January 2004
"All Necessary Means" -- Employing CIA Operatives in a Warfighting Role Alongside Special Operations Forces by Colonel Kathryn Stone, US Army War College, April 7, 2003
The Evolution of Strategic Influence by LTC Susan L. Gough, US Army War College, April 7, 2003
Strategic Influence Operations -- The Information Connection by Col. Brad M. Ward, US Army War College, April 7, 2003
George Washington, America’s First Director of Military Intelligence by LCDR Michael S. Prather, USN, USMC Command and Staff College (Master's Thesis), July 2002
NSA's Central Security Service, by Keith P. Clive, excerpted from Cryptologia, April 2002
Remarks of David Kahn on the 50th Anniversary of the National Security Agency, November 1, 2002
Force Protection in an Era of Commercially Available Satellite Imagery: Space Blockade as a Possible Solution, by Maj. Robert Fabian (USAF), Naval War College, February 2002 (1.3 MB PDF file)
Chasing Spies: How the FBI Failed in Counterintelligence But Promoted the Politics of McCarthyism in the Cold War Years, by Athan Theoharis, Ivan R. Dee, Publisher, 2002 (Chapter One).
Israeli Court Verdict Against BG Yitzhak Yaacov, convicted of unauthorized disclosure of nuclear secrets, May 14, 2002, MS Word document (in Hebrew)
A Critical View of the National Reconnaissance Office by Dave Thompson, President & CEO, Spectrum Astro, at the 18th National Space Symposium, April 11, 2002.
A Social Network Analysis of the Iranian Government by Capt. Robert S. Renfro, II and Dr. Richard F. Deckro, Air Force Institute of Technology, November 2001.
Congressional Oversight of Intelligence: One Perspective by Mary K. Sturtevant, American Intelligence Journal, Summer 1992.
The Search for a European Intelligence Policy by Charles Baker, May 2001, addresses the prospects for, and obstacles to, a joint European intelligence policy.
Interception Capabilities 2000 Report to the Director General for Research of the European Parliament (Scientific and Technical Options Assessment programme office) on the development of surveillance technology and risk of abuse of economic information - April 1999
Open Source Intelligence: Private Sector Capabilities to Support DoD Policy, Acquisitions, and Operations - 01 May 1998 - By Mr. Robert D. Steele President, OSS Inc., and Dr. Mark M. Lowenthal , President OSS USA

TAKEDOWN: Targets, Tools, & Technocracy Robert David Steele Author's Pre-Conference Final Draft, Ninth Annual Strategy Conference, U.S. Army War College "Challenging the United States Symmetrically and Asymmetrically: Can America Be Defeated?" 31 March through 2 April 1998

INFORMATION PEACKEEPING: The Purest Form of War Robert D. Steele Editor's Final Draft 3.9 dated 11 March 1998, Forthcoming in Dearth and Campen, CYBERWAR 2.0: Myths, Mysteries, and Realities

Nuclear Threats During the Gulf War John Pike 19 February 1998

The Integration of Operations & Intelligence -- Getting Information to the Warfighter Air Command and Staff College 1997 - Getting combat information in a timely manner from the stovepipes of the intelligence world to the operators that require it has been a problem for years.

Marine Corps Intelligence Doctrine: Does It Know The Information Age Has Arrived? Bradley J. Sillman Major USMC [United States Marine Corps Command and Staff College]

How Much for a Pound of Communication? Paul E. Ruud Lieutenant Commander, US Navy [United States Marine Corps Command and Staff College]

USAF TACS Battle Management: Preparing for High Tempo Future Operations Major C.B. Miller, United States Air Force [United States Marine Corps Command and Staff College]

The Final Report of the Snyder Commission -- A Perspective on Intelligence Reform from Outside the Beltway Woodrow Wilson School Policy Conference 401a: Intelligence Reform in the Post-Cold War Era

Confronting the New Intelligence Establishment: Lessons from the Colorado Experience - Loring Wirbel The Workbook Fall 1996

UK Eyes Alpha by Mark Urban - The Inside Story of British Intelligence - with sample chapter on ZIRCON


Secret Power - New Zealand's Role in the International Spy Network - by Nicky Hager


THE SPECIAL OSPREY: IMPACT ON SPECIAL OPERATIONS DOCTRINE THOMAS J. TRASK School of Advanced Airpower Studies JUNE 1996

ORGANIZATIONAL CONCEPTS FOR THE "SENSOR-TO-SHOOTER" WORLD: THE IMPACT OF REAL-TIME INFORMATION ON AIRPOWER TARGETING WILLIAM G. CHAPMAN School of Advanced Airpower Studies JUNE 1996

Communications and Intelligence: Why Can't We Get Along? Major Lisa Tubridy, United States Marine Corps - April 1996

Rise of Domestic Terrorism and Its Relation to United States Armed Forces LCDR Steven Mack Presley, MSC, USN - 19 April 1996

INTEGRATION OF INTELLIGENCE INTO PROFESSIONAL MILITARY EDUCATION - MAJOR R. J. BUIKEMA, USMC - 18 APRIL 96

Preparation of the US Navy Intelligence Officer CDR (Sel) Richard L. Saunders, USN - 15 April 1996

"Forward...From The Sea": Intelligence Support to Naval Expeditionary Forces Lieutenant Commander Thomas C. Baus, United States Navy - 04 April 1996

The Future of Airborne Reconnaissance Major Keith E. Gentile, United States Air Force - 27 March 1996 [this is a rather nice piece, though I fear that our HTML version has oddly deleted the even-number footnotes, so if you need these references, you may have better luck with the original ZIP version]

V [Marine] Amphibious Corps Planning for Operation Olympic and the Role of Intelligence in Support of Planning. Author: Major Mark P. Arens, USMCR [MCIA] 27 March 1996

Making Intelligence Smarter: The Future of U.S. Intelligence -- Report of an Independent Task Force Sponsored by the Council on Foreign Relations, February 1996

A Framework for Reform of the U.S. Intelligence Community, by John A. Gentry

SPECIAL OPERATIONS FORCES AND UNMANNED AERIAL VEHICLES: SOONER OR LATER? STEPHEN P. HOWARD School of Advanced Airpower Studies JUNE 1995

Reconnaissance, Surveillance, and Target Acquisition Collection Planning--Embedded Within the MEF Intelligence and Operations Cycles - Intelligence Doctrine Working Group Chairman: Major J.C. Dereschuk, United States Marine Corps Members: Major R. H. Chase Major J. A. Day (USMC) Major D. D. Cline Major J.G. O'Hagan -- May 1995

A CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF THE I MEF INTELLIGENCE PERFORMANCE IN THE 1991 PERSIAN GULF WAR Major Raymond E. Coia, United States Marine Corps - 22 May 1995

The Use of Covert Paramilitary Activity as a Policy Tool: An Analysis of Operations Conducted by the United States Central Intelligence Agency, 1949-1951 - Major D. H. Berger, USMC - 22 May 1995

CAN ATARS FIX AMERICA'S TACTICAL RECONNAISSANCE VACUUM? by Major Mark E. Marek Conference Group Nine LtCol Sorrell Dr. Jacobsen 18 April 1995 United States Marine Corps Command and Staff College Marine Corps University

COUNTERING TERRORISM: THE ISRAELI RESPONSE TO THE 1972 MUNICH OLYMPIC MASSACRE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF INDEPENDENT COVERT ACTION TEAMS - Alexander B. Calahan - April 1995

TEMPEST Eavesdropping On the Electromagnetic Emanations of Digital Equipment: The Laws of Canada, England and the United States



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